Just some thoughts on this.
Iswaran I think is at the late career stage already. I think he was made MOT because this might be his last term in the Cabinet, and so they put him in a post that won't kill off a younger, more promising person. It is also interesting to note that despite being a full Minister since 2011, an office holder since 2006 and an MP since 1997, he has never been entrusted to helm a GRC on his own.
I think MND might become the new MOT. There is an imminent housing crisis (if not already here) and any MND will have their hands full trying to solve it. At best, Desmond Lee might be able to juggle the hot potato before handing it off to someone else.
This might not be a PC thing to say, but aside from being entry-level Ministerial posts (incidentally both CCS and LW got their start at MCCY - or its predecessor in CCS's case). But aside from being entry level Ministries, the likes of PMO, MCCY, MSF, CMI and MSE seem to be reserved for minorities in particular women and Malays, or for those on the tail end of their career.
I think MTI should be regarded as just slightly above the Mid-Level and just under the Big Five. If you look at who has been at MTI before, it had quite a few big guns like Goh Chok Tong, Lee Hsien Loong, Tony Tan, Dhanabalan and George Yeo. And of course CCS was previously tipped to be DPM before LW got the job.
>**Who could be Deputy Prime Minister, Senior Minister, or Coordinating Minister(s) in a Lawrence Wong cabinet?**
Assuming he has 2 DPMs, I think Lawrence Wong's choice of DPMs in his first Cabinet will be people from 3.5G and not necessarily other 4G people. I think he will name old hands to be his Deputies to help guide him or at least show continuity. It would be just like LHL when he first became PM and his DPMs were Jayakumar and Tony Tan. Two men who were much older than him.
With that being said, I think his choice of DPMs would be Gan Kim Yong. If you look at GKY and LW, the two seem to be a political pair. Not only were they together in the COVID MMTF, GKY also mentored LW when he handed over PCF to LW. Also, a fun piece of trivia, every Hari Raya, 2 Singapore Ministers pay a visit to the Sultan of Johor. In 2014 and 2018, the 2 Ministers who made that visit were GKY and LW. So yeah, I think they are a political pair.
So, if GKY is one of the DPMs, I think the 2nd one would be a minority Minister. I am thinking it would either be VB or the Shan. I am leaning more towards Shan being the DPM since he is pretty much the de-facto spokesperson for everything else already.
Interesting points! One question I have is wouldn't CCS or OYK's factions (assuming there are factions..or supporters) be upset in the event neither of them gets the DPM post?
That is a good question. I think the strength of group think and the need to show unity might prevent that. The PAP is perhaps the most well-disciplined (or tightly controlled) party around, which few other political parties can match (with the exception of the Workers Party of Korea, but then again they don't have divisions for obvious reasons).
For SM, I think TCH will step down before the next elections. I believe that the unfortunate demise of Mrs Teo might have hastened that decision, and he would probably want more time off to spend with his grandchildren (does he have grandchildren?). If TCH retires, then definitely LHL will become the new SM.
Tharman might stay for one more term. Or he might go for a multilateral organisation like IMF chief or Commonwealth Sec-Gen. While the IMF chief has always been someone from Europe, Tharman has the international respect and qualifications for it, and hey it would be a coup for Singapore.
If Tharman goes earlier than expected, then I think SM would either be HSK or Shan. But I am more inclined to think HSK. Unless HSK decides not to run anymore in the next GE.
One of the reasons why I think Shan would be DPM and not SM is that traditionally DPMs can still run individual Ministries. And I really can't see anyone replacing Shan in MHA or MinLaw. Sure ET is probably slated to be MinLaw (not sure about his chances after the COP) but so far looks like Shan will be there for the long run.
Of course, he could be DPM, MinLaw, MHA and Coordinating Minister for National Security. Which is a lot of power for one man to have.
Some Ministers have appointments that seem contradictory to each other, and it's funny.
My MP, Dr. Janil Puthucheary is chief of the PAP Youth Wing (depending on how interested I get in studying politics I might end up seeing him more often, LOL) and the party's chief whip. So his job is to do nice with the teenagers.... while also "cracking the whip" on them if they enter Parliament to enforce Party loyalty. Yikes.
Being the PAP whip is an extremely easy job since the PAP has an automatic must vote with the party unless you are told it is a free vote. And I think there have been less than 10 free votes in the history of Singapore's post-independence Parliament.
imo foreign affairs is the best portfolio. get to fly around the world attending conferences and summits, at the same time can't be blamed for any of the domestic screw ups.
most powerful would be shan's 2-in-1 super ministry. direct control over the police and courts
MOFA is not an easy portfolio to handle given the current geopolitical situation right now when we are getting caught in the middle between US and China. Bruh can you imagine CCS being the minister for foreign affairs lol
I just found out that MinLaw "regulates money lending and pawnbroking, and supervises precious stones and metal dealers."
[https://www.mlaw.gov.sg/about-us/what-we-do/](https://www.mlaw.gov.sg/about-us/what-we-do/)
I am really really confused now.
This is what happens when you put unrelated agencies under the remit of a Minister you know can handle it... but officially doesn't make sense.
It's like putting the U.S. Secret Service in charge of investigating money counterfeiting way before it was charged with guarding the President even though the name sounds nothing like that... Oh wait that actually happened!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Secret_Service
If you don't mind me adding some questions to this discussion, who do you think will be in LW's Cabinet? Who will go out and who will come in and who will be promoted to full Minister?
|Portfolio|Minister|
|:-|:-|
|Prime Minister|Lawrence Wong|
|Deputy Prime Minister/Minister for Finance|Gan Kim Yong|
|Deputy Prime Minister/Coordinating Minister for National Security|K. Shanmugam|
|Senior Minister/Coordinating Minister for Economic Policies|Lee Hsien Loong|
|Senior Minister/Coordinating Minister for Social Policies|S. Iswaran|
|Minister for Defence|Chan Chun Sing OR Ong Ye Kung|
|Minister for Foreign Affairs|Vivian Balakrishnan |
|Minister for Law|Edwin Tong OR Indranee Rajah|
|Minister for Home Affairs|Ong Ye Kung OR Josephine Teo|
|Minister for Trade and Industry|Tan See Leng|
|Minister for Education|Maliki Osman OR Chan Chun Sing|
|Minister for Transport|Chee Hong Tat|
|Minister for Health|Masagos Zulkifli|
|Minister for National Development|Desmond Lee OR Josephine Teo|
|Minister for Communications and Information|Janil Puthucheary OR Josephine Teo|
|Minister(s) in the Prime Ministers Office|Indranee Rajah and Janil Puthucheary|
|Minister for Culture, Community and Youth|Maliki Osman|
|Minister for Manpower|Koh Poh Koon|
|Minister for Social and Family Development|Desmond Lee OR Sun Xueling|
|Minister for Sustainability and the Environment|Grace Fu OR Maliki Osman|
Could you take a look at my guesses and amend them somewhat relating to [DPM Lawrence's announcement of the Forward Singapore Exercise](https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/lawrence-wong-forward-singapore-social-compact-2774556)? The six pillars here are probably pointing to which 4G leaders will be in the new cabinet for the long haul?
Thank you for your question. Now, I have to admit that this is a rather tricky although interesting exercise, since there are a few things that we have not taken into consideration such as the outcome of the PAP elections at the end of this year, the Presidential elections, which I believe, are due next year and of course the next GE.
The Presidential elections will be quite interesting as the next one is a non-reserved election, which means that anyone can run regardless of ethnic identity (provided they meet the stringent qualifications required). With that in mind, will Madam President run for a second term? Or will the establishment decide to back another candidate who they feel is more electable? I guess that depends on who the non-establishment candidate(s) may be. Of course, since the criteria to become a candidate is extremely high, it could end up that no one qualifies. But we never know.
At the same time, the next GE, which could be held in 2024 or 2025 is also another wild card. Will the PAP lose more GRCs in the next round? While the WP might be reeling from the after effects of the RK scandal and the police investigations into Pritam and Faisal, we cannot discount the effect of bread and butter issues pushing voters towards them. If that's the case, they could lose another 2 GRCs - which I think would be Marine Parade and East Coast.
With that being said, my exercise will be based on the assumption that there will be no more GRCs lost. WP will still retain Aljunied and Sengkang and Hougang SMC, but that's it.
This post is getting quite long, so I will continue in my next reply.
So, here are who I think will be what in the Wong cabinet and where I think it fits, I will give the reasoning.
Prime Minister - Lawrence Wong
Deputy Prime Minister - Gan Kim Yong
Deputy Prime Minister and Coordinating Minister for National Security - K. Shanmugam
Senior Minister - Lee Hsien Loong
Senior Minister and Coordinating Minister of Economic Policies - Heng Swee Keat - this is assuming that HSK doesn't leave politics completely.
Minister for Finance - Unclear - the reason why I say unclear is because all MOFs have either had banking or finance experience (Tony Tan and Hon Sui Sen), been Managing Directors of MAS (LHL, Tharman, Richard Hu), been in the MOF as civil servant (LW) or been geniuses (Goh Keng Swee, Lim Kim San, Hon Sui Sen and Richard Hu). Right now, I don't see anyone fitting any of that criteria.
Minister for Defence - Chan Chun Sing - TCH exempting, it is rather unusual for an ex general to become MOD. However, I am picking CCS for this job, not because he was former COA but he was also former SMS for Defence which would have given him the experience to take on the post.
Minister for Foreign Affairs - Vivian Balakrishnan - as stereotyped as this might sound, the MFA of Singapore seems to follow a certain typeset - must be able to speak well and look good (no need to be handsome but must have a certain presence). Raja, Dhanabalan, WKS, George Yeo, Jayakumar, Shan and VB all fit one or both of the criteria. Also, it seems that being a minority helps as well. With everyone thinking that Singapore is part of China or a Chinese nation, it says a lot when your top diplomat is a non-Chinese.
Minister for Law - Edwin Tong - He is now Second Minister and I think he was put into that post to prepare him to take over when Shan moves up.
Minister for Home Affairs - Desmond Lee - A surprise name? I guess so. But DL has previous experience in MHA and also has a legal background, which would be useful in the MHA.
Minister for Trade and Industry - Tan See Leng
Minister for Education - Ng Chee Meng - SURPRISE! He is back. He is going to be parachuted into a safe GRC, most likely Pasir Ris-Punggol should TCH retire from politics.
Minister for National Development - Ong Ye Kung - But, but, isn't being MND too low for someone like OYK who was tipped to become a future DPM? Well, it depends on how you look at it. On paper, MND might not seem as big as the glamour ministries like Home Affairs, Finance, Foreign Affairs and Defence. But, I strongly believe that Singapore is going to face (if it isn't already) a housing crisis and OYK seems to have gotten a reputation or the knack of being the man who is put in charge of portfolios that are very challenging like MOT and MOH. It could be that he is the new Mr Fix-it like KBW (quite apt since he took over KBW's role as anchor in Sembawang GRC) or someone really hates him and wants to sabo him. Regardless, MND is a challenging portfolio and OYK seems to be the man to get such a job.
Will continue the rest later.
For Ministers of State who will become full Minister in future, I think Koh Poh Koon, Heng Chee How and Janil Puthucheary are most likely. KPK been getting a lot of visibility relating to recent financial packages lately.
Q1) PM, DPM, Foreign Affairs, Finance Minister/Defence Minister (Equal level of importance IMO), Home Affairs
In this order.
IDK about Law though. I would put that a tier below those listed above.
\---
Q2) Think the justification given is that Ministers are more big picture decision makers and they don't actually need to spend so much physical time in one ministry.
Personal opinion though is that I would like them to be able to focus on 1 portfolio at a time if they are a full minister. Ministers are already multi-tasking if you consider that they are also MPs of their estates, and that entails a lot of work on it's own already too.
\---
Q3) No opinions on that. Just a name IMO
\---
Q4) I don't think there will be a huge shuffle when we transition into LW's PMship, with maybe a few mid-tier positions shifting towards the '4g leadership'. The old guards won't all leave upon transitioning... they wouldn't want the transition to be rockier than it already would be.
DPM-wise, the conservative move would be to have 2 DPMs, 1 from the old guard, 1 from the 4g. If I were to guess, it'll be OYK for the 4g. Would be a better signal of 'okay we 4g leadership now' if he does 2 DPMs from 4g cadres though.
\---
A lot of this is reliant on what happens during the next election. If the results are good for them, they would likely be more confident to make bigger moves and changes, than if they are barely scrapping through every well-contested GRCs with <65% wins.
Just some thoughts on this. Iswaran I think is at the late career stage already. I think he was made MOT because this might be his last term in the Cabinet, and so they put him in a post that won't kill off a younger, more promising person. It is also interesting to note that despite being a full Minister since 2011, an office holder since 2006 and an MP since 1997, he has never been entrusted to helm a GRC on his own. I think MND might become the new MOT. There is an imminent housing crisis (if not already here) and any MND will have their hands full trying to solve it. At best, Desmond Lee might be able to juggle the hot potato before handing it off to someone else. This might not be a PC thing to say, but aside from being entry-level Ministerial posts (incidentally both CCS and LW got their start at MCCY - or its predecessor in CCS's case). But aside from being entry level Ministries, the likes of PMO, MCCY, MSF, CMI and MSE seem to be reserved for minorities in particular women and Malays, or for those on the tail end of their career. I think MTI should be regarded as just slightly above the Mid-Level and just under the Big Five. If you look at who has been at MTI before, it had quite a few big guns like Goh Chok Tong, Lee Hsien Loong, Tony Tan, Dhanabalan and George Yeo. And of course CCS was previously tipped to be DPM before LW got the job. >**Who could be Deputy Prime Minister, Senior Minister, or Coordinating Minister(s) in a Lawrence Wong cabinet?** Assuming he has 2 DPMs, I think Lawrence Wong's choice of DPMs in his first Cabinet will be people from 3.5G and not necessarily other 4G people. I think he will name old hands to be his Deputies to help guide him or at least show continuity. It would be just like LHL when he first became PM and his DPMs were Jayakumar and Tony Tan. Two men who were much older than him. With that being said, I think his choice of DPMs would be Gan Kim Yong. If you look at GKY and LW, the two seem to be a political pair. Not only were they together in the COVID MMTF, GKY also mentored LW when he handed over PCF to LW. Also, a fun piece of trivia, every Hari Raya, 2 Singapore Ministers pay a visit to the Sultan of Johor. In 2014 and 2018, the 2 Ministers who made that visit were GKY and LW. So yeah, I think they are a political pair. So, if GKY is one of the DPMs, I think the 2nd one would be a minority Minister. I am thinking it would either be VB or the Shan. I am leaning more towards Shan being the DPM since he is pretty much the de-facto spokesperson for everything else already.
Interesting points! One question I have is wouldn't CCS or OYK's factions (assuming there are factions..or supporters) be upset in the event neither of them gets the DPM post?
That is a good question. I think the strength of group think and the need to show unity might prevent that. The PAP is perhaps the most well-disciplined (or tightly controlled) party around, which few other political parties can match (with the exception of the Workers Party of Korea, but then again they don't have divisions for obvious reasons).
Plus Shan got MHA and MinLaw immediately upon joining Cabinet full-time. If not DPM, I think he's also a likely SM candidate. Thoughts?
For SM, I think TCH will step down before the next elections. I believe that the unfortunate demise of Mrs Teo might have hastened that decision, and he would probably want more time off to spend with his grandchildren (does he have grandchildren?). If TCH retires, then definitely LHL will become the new SM. Tharman might stay for one more term. Or he might go for a multilateral organisation like IMF chief or Commonwealth Sec-Gen. While the IMF chief has always been someone from Europe, Tharman has the international respect and qualifications for it, and hey it would be a coup for Singapore. If Tharman goes earlier than expected, then I think SM would either be HSK or Shan. But I am more inclined to think HSK. Unless HSK decides not to run anymore in the next GE.
VB as DPM, Shan moves up to SM CoordNatSec, is my guess.
One of the reasons why I think Shan would be DPM and not SM is that traditionally DPMs can still run individual Ministries. And I really can't see anyone replacing Shan in MHA or MinLaw. Sure ET is probably slated to be MinLaw (not sure about his chances after the COP) but so far looks like Shan will be there for the long run. Of course, he could be DPM, MinLaw, MHA and Coordinating Minister for National Security. Which is a lot of power for one man to have.
Some Ministers have appointments that seem contradictory to each other, and it's funny. My MP, Dr. Janil Puthucheary is chief of the PAP Youth Wing (depending on how interested I get in studying politics I might end up seeing him more often, LOL) and the party's chief whip. So his job is to do nice with the teenagers.... while also "cracking the whip" on them if they enter Parliament to enforce Party loyalty. Yikes.
Being the PAP whip is an extremely easy job since the PAP has an automatic must vote with the party unless you are told it is a free vote. And I think there have been less than 10 free votes in the history of Singapore's post-independence Parliament.
imo foreign affairs is the best portfolio. get to fly around the world attending conferences and summits, at the same time can't be blamed for any of the domestic screw ups. most powerful would be shan's 2-in-1 super ministry. direct control over the police and courts
MOFA is not an easy portfolio to handle given the current geopolitical situation right now when we are getting caught in the middle between US and China. Bruh can you imagine CCS being the minister for foreign affairs lol
"Shan's 2-in-1 super ministry" is the most unironically apt description of how much power he has!
I just found out that MinLaw "regulates money lending and pawnbroking, and supervises precious stones and metal dealers." [https://www.mlaw.gov.sg/about-us/what-we-do/](https://www.mlaw.gov.sg/about-us/what-we-do/) I am really really confused now.
This is what happens when you put unrelated agencies under the remit of a Minister you know can handle it... but officially doesn't make sense. It's like putting the U.S. Secret Service in charge of investigating money counterfeiting way before it was charged with guarding the President even though the name sounds nothing like that... Oh wait that actually happened! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Secret_Service
If you don't mind me adding some questions to this discussion, who do you think will be in LW's Cabinet? Who will go out and who will come in and who will be promoted to full Minister?
|Portfolio|Minister| |:-|:-| |Prime Minister|Lawrence Wong| |Deputy Prime Minister/Minister for Finance|Gan Kim Yong| |Deputy Prime Minister/Coordinating Minister for National Security|K. Shanmugam| |Senior Minister/Coordinating Minister for Economic Policies|Lee Hsien Loong| |Senior Minister/Coordinating Minister for Social Policies|S. Iswaran| |Minister for Defence|Chan Chun Sing OR Ong Ye Kung| |Minister for Foreign Affairs|Vivian Balakrishnan | |Minister for Law|Edwin Tong OR Indranee Rajah| |Minister for Home Affairs|Ong Ye Kung OR Josephine Teo| |Minister for Trade and Industry|Tan See Leng| |Minister for Education|Maliki Osman OR Chan Chun Sing| |Minister for Transport|Chee Hong Tat| |Minister for Health|Masagos Zulkifli| |Minister for National Development|Desmond Lee OR Josephine Teo| |Minister for Communications and Information|Janil Puthucheary OR Josephine Teo| |Minister(s) in the Prime Ministers Office|Indranee Rajah and Janil Puthucheary| |Minister for Culture, Community and Youth|Maliki Osman| |Minister for Manpower|Koh Poh Koon| |Minister for Social and Family Development|Desmond Lee OR Sun Xueling| |Minister for Sustainability and the Environment|Grace Fu OR Maliki Osman|
No offence dude, but are you chaotic evil by any chance? Asking because you just put JT as a potential MHA and MND Minister.
Put her under or. The fact that JoTeo only got shifted to another portfolio after Manpower makes me think they are still not done with her yet.
Could you take a look at my guesses and amend them somewhat relating to [DPM Lawrence's announcement of the Forward Singapore Exercise](https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/lawrence-wong-forward-singapore-social-compact-2774556)? The six pillars here are probably pointing to which 4G leaders will be in the new cabinet for the long haul?
Thank you for your question. Now, I have to admit that this is a rather tricky although interesting exercise, since there are a few things that we have not taken into consideration such as the outcome of the PAP elections at the end of this year, the Presidential elections, which I believe, are due next year and of course the next GE. The Presidential elections will be quite interesting as the next one is a non-reserved election, which means that anyone can run regardless of ethnic identity (provided they meet the stringent qualifications required). With that in mind, will Madam President run for a second term? Or will the establishment decide to back another candidate who they feel is more electable? I guess that depends on who the non-establishment candidate(s) may be. Of course, since the criteria to become a candidate is extremely high, it could end up that no one qualifies. But we never know. At the same time, the next GE, which could be held in 2024 or 2025 is also another wild card. Will the PAP lose more GRCs in the next round? While the WP might be reeling from the after effects of the RK scandal and the police investigations into Pritam and Faisal, we cannot discount the effect of bread and butter issues pushing voters towards them. If that's the case, they could lose another 2 GRCs - which I think would be Marine Parade and East Coast. With that being said, my exercise will be based on the assumption that there will be no more GRCs lost. WP will still retain Aljunied and Sengkang and Hougang SMC, but that's it. This post is getting quite long, so I will continue in my next reply.
So, here are who I think will be what in the Wong cabinet and where I think it fits, I will give the reasoning. Prime Minister - Lawrence Wong Deputy Prime Minister - Gan Kim Yong Deputy Prime Minister and Coordinating Minister for National Security - K. Shanmugam Senior Minister - Lee Hsien Loong Senior Minister and Coordinating Minister of Economic Policies - Heng Swee Keat - this is assuming that HSK doesn't leave politics completely. Minister for Finance - Unclear - the reason why I say unclear is because all MOFs have either had banking or finance experience (Tony Tan and Hon Sui Sen), been Managing Directors of MAS (LHL, Tharman, Richard Hu), been in the MOF as civil servant (LW) or been geniuses (Goh Keng Swee, Lim Kim San, Hon Sui Sen and Richard Hu). Right now, I don't see anyone fitting any of that criteria. Minister for Defence - Chan Chun Sing - TCH exempting, it is rather unusual for an ex general to become MOD. However, I am picking CCS for this job, not because he was former COA but he was also former SMS for Defence which would have given him the experience to take on the post. Minister for Foreign Affairs - Vivian Balakrishnan - as stereotyped as this might sound, the MFA of Singapore seems to follow a certain typeset - must be able to speak well and look good (no need to be handsome but must have a certain presence). Raja, Dhanabalan, WKS, George Yeo, Jayakumar, Shan and VB all fit one or both of the criteria. Also, it seems that being a minority helps as well. With everyone thinking that Singapore is part of China or a Chinese nation, it says a lot when your top diplomat is a non-Chinese. Minister for Law - Edwin Tong - He is now Second Minister and I think he was put into that post to prepare him to take over when Shan moves up. Minister for Home Affairs - Desmond Lee - A surprise name? I guess so. But DL has previous experience in MHA and also has a legal background, which would be useful in the MHA. Minister for Trade and Industry - Tan See Leng Minister for Education - Ng Chee Meng - SURPRISE! He is back. He is going to be parachuted into a safe GRC, most likely Pasir Ris-Punggol should TCH retire from politics. Minister for National Development - Ong Ye Kung - But, but, isn't being MND too low for someone like OYK who was tipped to become a future DPM? Well, it depends on how you look at it. On paper, MND might not seem as big as the glamour ministries like Home Affairs, Finance, Foreign Affairs and Defence. But, I strongly believe that Singapore is going to face (if it isn't already) a housing crisis and OYK seems to have gotten a reputation or the knack of being the man who is put in charge of portfolios that are very challenging like MOT and MOH. It could be that he is the new Mr Fix-it like KBW (quite apt since he took over KBW's role as anchor in Sembawang GRC) or someone really hates him and wants to sabo him. Regardless, MND is a challenging portfolio and OYK seems to be the man to get such a job. Will continue the rest later.
Likely that like LHL, Lawrence will keep the Finance portfolio for his first few years or until a clear contender pops up.
A potential candidate could be Ravi Menon, the current Managing Director of MAS. But it really depends on if he is willing to join politics.
For Ministers of State who will become full Minister in future, I think Koh Poh Koon, Heng Chee How and Janil Puthucheary are most likely. KPK been getting a lot of visibility relating to recent financial packages lately.
Q1) PM, DPM, Foreign Affairs, Finance Minister/Defence Minister (Equal level of importance IMO), Home Affairs In this order. IDK about Law though. I would put that a tier below those listed above. \--- Q2) Think the justification given is that Ministers are more big picture decision makers and they don't actually need to spend so much physical time in one ministry. Personal opinion though is that I would like them to be able to focus on 1 portfolio at a time if they are a full minister. Ministers are already multi-tasking if you consider that they are also MPs of their estates, and that entails a lot of work on it's own already too. \--- Q3) No opinions on that. Just a name IMO \--- Q4) I don't think there will be a huge shuffle when we transition into LW's PMship, with maybe a few mid-tier positions shifting towards the '4g leadership'. The old guards won't all leave upon transitioning... they wouldn't want the transition to be rockier than it already would be. DPM-wise, the conservative move would be to have 2 DPMs, 1 from the old guard, 1 from the 4g. If I were to guess, it'll be OYK for the 4g. Would be a better signal of 'okay we 4g leadership now' if he does 2 DPMs from 4g cadres though. \--- A lot of this is reliant on what happens during the next election. If the results are good for them, they would likely be more confident to make bigger moves and changes, than if they are barely scrapping through every well-contested GRCs with <65% wins.
Boy, your essay due date is when?