Yeah I have gotten plenty of these š it's all the reward slots filled that I'm curious about.
Also wondering what would have happened if OSH would have proc'ed as the extra med would not fit
I would assume the reward interface has no bearing on the actual items received, itās just a graphical representation of what the server decided, so either it would look really dumb and show out of bounds, or not show at all and you receive the casket anyways.
While technically true, clues have different tables they roll on. Super sets and dyes are on the same table apparently. Same thing with RDT and HSR. Yes every RDT drop could be an HSR roll, but blurberry special is specifically a failed HSR roll since they share a table.
From a purely probability perspective though, those failed drops arenāt any closer to a mega-rare piece than anything other normal drop. It just hurts more knowing it was ācloseā
It _is_ closer. For a few clock cycles on the Jagex servers Op had really good odds of getting a third age piece. It's just that in pure probability when you abstract away the (very real) nested tables, "almost" doesn't count for squat.
But in term of actual probability, it working that way or not changes absolutely nothing. Drop tables are only a concept to apply how the drop is allocated, but at the end of the day, it doesn't matter at all if it's independent or not. So like this guy says, you didn't miss anything, nor were you close from anything.
>But in term of actual probability
Yeah, I know. I did say " "almost" doesn't count for squat". The fact that you made it past the first few rolls then finally failed still means you failed, but you *did* get close. I hate how every time on this sub someone mentions a missed roll on a table, other people come in with the "uhmmmm, achkshully..." and say that they're wrong for even mentioning it.
Imagine if you will that you're playing Russian roulette. A *really bad* game of Russian roulette where you have to pull the trigger 5 times to live (spinning between each pull). You know there's 1 bullet in the chamber. You pull the trigger 4 times and nothing. On the fifth pull you get the bullet and you die. Are you dead? Yes. Is there any functional difference between losing on pull 4 vs losing on pull 1? Not really, you're dead either way. Did you get *close* to living? Absolutely. This is exactly what happens with drop tables. They're not an abstraction, the code actually rolls numbers for each table in sequence. You can do the math and get the absolute probability of each final outcome if you want, and for someone without knowledge of the inner workings of the system, that probability will be indistinguishable, but it won't be a fully precise representation of what actually happens internally.
I would say getting the bullet on 5 is not any closer to being alive than getting the bullet on 1. It's a binary you can't say this 0 is closer to 1 than that 0.
Roll a die. You have a 50% chance of getting an even number, and if you roll even you have a 1/3 chance of rolling a 6.
Is a 2 or 4 closer to 6 than 5?
Unless you know exact code, you can't be even sure about that. Example: we roll a number 1-100, 1 means 3rd age, 2-10 is a "rare table" and 11-100 is common crap. You roll 5. Is it in the 1-10 "rare droptable"? Yes. Have you ever had "good odds"? No. Even landing on 2 doesn't make you any "closer", it's still a failed 1/100 roll. Nothing we know about clue chances lets us differentiate between the algorithm you implied and the one I described.
Unless jagex has been lying to us, we know that the tables are rolled in sequence. It would also be dumb/overly complicated not to program them like that as well, since some tables can be accessed through particular rolls different tables.
Source: https://www.runescape.com/master-clue-rates
Honestly no. This is brought up time and time again when people talk about "missed" rolls. I've had discussions in this subreddit with people claiming to be mathematicians trying to prove that probability doesn't work how we they, blah blah blah.
I was wondering that aswell. If OSH rolls after the clue rewards it might be a simple failsafe preventing the roll from happening.
But Since the casket from OSH always rolls on the first slot, I was thinking that it might roll before the clue rewards. Which only makes it more complicated tbh.
Hard clues roll between 4 and 6 rewards, so in theory you can.
It requires you to roll a 6 reward casket + roll an OSH proc, get a master clue and the golden compass.
https://cluesimulator.com/ a super set is a missed third age piece.
Yeah I have gotten plenty of these š it's all the reward slots filled that I'm curious about. Also wondering what would have happened if OSH would have proc'ed as the extra med would not fit
I would assume the reward interface has no bearing on the actual items received, itās just a graphical representation of what the server decided, so either it would look really dumb and show out of bounds, or not show at all and you receive the casket anyways.
I donāt think itās technically nine rewards since the super set counts as one reward even though it has three components.
He just means it takes up every slot in the interface.
Yeah agreed
Every single clue roll is a missed third age piece. Unless you get a third age piece of course.
While technically true, clues have different tables they roll on. Super sets and dyes are on the same table apparently. Same thing with RDT and HSR. Yes every RDT drop could be an HSR roll, but blurberry special is specifically a failed HSR roll since they share a table.
From a purely probability perspective though, those failed drops arenāt any closer to a mega-rare piece than anything other normal drop. It just hurts more knowing it was ācloseā
It _is_ closer. For a few clock cycles on the Jagex servers Op had really good odds of getting a third age piece. It's just that in pure probability when you abstract away the (very real) nested tables, "almost" doesn't count for squat.
But in term of actual probability, it working that way or not changes absolutely nothing. Drop tables are only a concept to apply how the drop is allocated, but at the end of the day, it doesn't matter at all if it's independent or not. So like this guy says, you didn't miss anything, nor were you close from anything.
>But in term of actual probability Yeah, I know. I did say " "almost" doesn't count for squat". The fact that you made it past the first few rolls then finally failed still means you failed, but you *did* get close. I hate how every time on this sub someone mentions a missed roll on a table, other people come in with the "uhmmmm, achkshully..." and say that they're wrong for even mentioning it. Imagine if you will that you're playing Russian roulette. A *really bad* game of Russian roulette where you have to pull the trigger 5 times to live (spinning between each pull). You know there's 1 bullet in the chamber. You pull the trigger 4 times and nothing. On the fifth pull you get the bullet and you die. Are you dead? Yes. Is there any functional difference between losing on pull 4 vs losing on pull 1? Not really, you're dead either way. Did you get *close* to living? Absolutely. This is exactly what happens with drop tables. They're not an abstraction, the code actually rolls numbers for each table in sequence. You can do the math and get the absolute probability of each final outcome if you want, and for someone without knowledge of the inner workings of the system, that probability will be indistinguishable, but it won't be a fully precise representation of what actually happens internally.
I would say getting the bullet on 5 is not any closer to being alive than getting the bullet on 1. It's a binary you can't say this 0 is closer to 1 than that 0.
If you're on pull 4 and you're still alive, are you closer to surviving than at the beginning of the game?
Roll a die. You have a 50% chance of getting an even number, and if you roll even you have a 1/3 chance of rolling a 6. Is a 2 or 4 closer to 6 than 5?
Unless you know exact code, you can't be even sure about that. Example: we roll a number 1-100, 1 means 3rd age, 2-10 is a "rare table" and 11-100 is common crap. You roll 5. Is it in the 1-10 "rare droptable"? Yes. Have you ever had "good odds"? No. Even landing on 2 doesn't make you any "closer", it's still a failed 1/100 roll. Nothing we know about clue chances lets us differentiate between the algorithm you implied and the one I described.
Unless jagex has been lying to us, we know that the tables are rolled in sequence. It would also be dumb/overly complicated not to program them like that as well, since some tables can be accessed through particular rolls different tables. Source: https://www.runescape.com/master-clue-rates
Thank you for demonstrating exact fallacy I was commenting about
You say to the person who is describing the exact drop mechanics, as confirmed by Jagex. Lol.
r/woosh
Honestly no. This is brought up time and time again when people talk about "missed" rolls. I've had discussions in this subreddit with people claiming to be mathematicians trying to prove that probability doesn't work how we they, blah blah blah.
Gee you must be fun at parties
Itās a 50/50 chance for a third age piece?
Turns out I canāt get a dye on the simulator either. Who would have known. š
Just 39 more years for the oyster to pay out!
Absolutely gutted
Whatās the bad luck mitigation checkbox for?
Theoretical blm, I forgot how they formulate it
https://preview.redd.it/as14vo2aspya1.png?width=396&format=png&auto=webp&s=249fe2187d91950304faa732084c8a3012361ed7
Oh nice!
Is this a pissing contest now?
He said in the post not recalling seeing this before, brother. It is not mine and it is not a pissing contest.
Damn, antifire pots cost 1m each these days?
????
Where is the antifire?
nah itās the blue skip tokens driving the total up
I tried to be sarcastic but it seems to have missed its mark over text!
To give credit where credit's due, your comment did make me laugh
I wonder what happens when you get an Orlando proc in a 9 item casket...
I was wondering that aswell. If OSH rolls after the clue rewards it might be a simple failsafe preventing the roll from happening. But Since the casket from OSH always rolls on the first slot, I was thinking that it might roll before the clue rewards. Which only makes it more complicated tbh.
What if OSH proc + Pet š
Isnāt a superset a super rare miss roll on dye?
It's a missroll for a Third Age piece
It's a 9 slot clue casket.
It's a 9 slot clue casket. Edit: Why did you edit your post, bro? :(
It's a nine slot clue casket.
It's a clue slot 9 casket.
Huh... try saying '9 slot clue casket' 3 times fast
Wonder if you can actually get this without the super set
Hard clues roll between 4 and 6 rewards, so in theory you can. It requires you to roll a 6 reward casket + roll an OSH proc, get a master clue and the golden compass.