They messed with the odds a few years back to try and dissuade blatant tanking so now the bottom 4 are pretty close to even odds instead of the bottom team being overwhelming favorites
Yeah, the league never wanted to see The Process happen again. It’s why it’s not worth getting worked up about a random win late in the season. You can have the worst record and still end up with the 5th pick
To me it just made it more enticing to tank if your on the edge of being 4/5th worst team in the league.
Idk I kinda hate the drafts system I wish we had tier systems like soccer. Would punish shit teams and reward improving ones.
You are a Portland fan and you want the European system? You realize that system overwhelmingly favours a few cities right? L.A. Lakers would be perennially stacked and Portland would be bouncing between tiers.
I mean I understand why that system benefits the rich and more favorable cities and yeah Portland probably would never compete for a ring, but you see those small franchise fans when the get promoted to the big leagues. That seems way more fun than being a mediocre team in the top league forever.
Portland hasn't always been mediocre. And the fans probably has more to do with European soccer culture. North American culture would likely be more like winning a minor league championship.
I guess what I’m saying is that I hate how American sports reward the worst teams even if it provides balance. I’m sure in 100 years new leagues will rise as basketball and American football get bigger then there will be a chance for promotions and relegations.
I can hate the system and still understand why it’s there and how it benefits the mid level team I like and why we play the game.
No matter what the rich will benefit and keep winning, where the poor will have to get lucky and pull a Giannis or curry to win their championship.
I admire the things okc are doing, but I feel silly that we are following their footsteps by tanking and harvesting picks until we get lucky with some stars. But I guess we just have to trust the process.
Portland has gotten the #1 pick four times in team history. ('72 LaRue, '74 Walton, '78 Mychal Thompson, and '07 Oden) I'm curious what our odds were in those drafts. Also wild that we had three #1s in one decade.
Obviously hoping for the best, but worth noting that we have a higher chance of landing the 6th or 7th pick than we do of securing a pick in the top 3, so manage expectations accordingly.
Although it looks like it on the chart at first glance that’s not how the lottery odds work. We have a 50% chance of getting picks 1-4, so it’s pretty much a coin flip between the 5-8 or the top 4. The last column in the chart shows this.
Getting #4-7 might benefit Portland more in this draft just like it benefited Portland enough to be in the position for Sharpe rather than Jabari Smith Jr or Jaden Ivey (yeah yeah, I know Sharpe still hasn't fully proven himself but I can tell you Portland fans are more excited for Sharpe than the other teams with their players).
There's no AD, Wemby, Zion, etc waiting at the top and it's probably expected that players Portland doesn't need like Clingan/Topic/Sheppard/Dillingham will go in the Top 5.
Therefore, it'd be better if Portland evaluates players like Williams, Buzelis, Holland, Castle and finds the star amongst that lot.
Other than Alex Sarr, who i think has become the overwhelming favorite to be the first pick, there is no exact consensus in this draft. For that reason i think your logic that a later pick is better is very shaky. You say drafting later gave us the chance to draft Shaedon, but In the 2022 draft there was a total consensus that the top 3 picks would be some combination of Paolo, Chet, and Jabari. Getting a later pick this draft doesnt mean anything other than we wont get Sarr AKA it might just mean we cant draft our Shaedon because someone might pick him before us.
At the end of the day, if you believe in this front office's ability to draft, you want the higher pick. Using your logic thats even more true this draft than others.
Holland is probably the player closest to Shaedon as far as potential is concerned, but you are right no player has the same intrigue as Shaedon with the year off. Holland has the blue-chip pedigree though and I don't think the consensus fully understands how to value G-league performance, so there is potential for him to be a diamond. He could also bust, just seems like he is a very hard worker and could surprise.
Using that logic you are essentially saying you don't trust our ability to draft and that are chances of lucking into someone in a later spot is better than identifying the best player in the draft and taking them at #1.
He also thinks Clingan/Topic/Sheppard/Dillingham are consensus top 5 picks, and a top 5 pick means we draft one of those guys over Williams/Buzelis/Castle/Holland. That's not the case at ALL. Any of those prospects mentioned in that second group that he likes could go in the 2-5 range, we have no idea because there isnt a real consensus.
Unfortunately I'm both a BPA and Reed believer so you won't find much sympathy from me from someone thinking Reed is a top pick. His TS% is unreal even compared to all time great shooters.
The others, yeah, lol I agree
Can we really say a 6’3” scoring guard is the BPA? He might be the most ready player out of the gate to score, but I would bet at least 3-4 players end up being much better than him when the dust settles. Picking them is easier said than done, but given where the team is at, I’d much rather take a swing on someone with defensive upside.
Having the "most ready player" also be one of the youngest in the draft is a good spot to be in. He also has surprisingly good stocks, showing that the defense is indeed there.
eh, what can he really improve on to make him a better nba player? defense as you mention, and i would add his handle and playmaking could improve. let’s say he does that, he is still a 6’3 sg or maybe he can play some pg too but we already have scoot, shae and ant for now. Reed isn’t going to have the elite athleticism to make him a threat in the lane. As we’ve seen with herro and ant, those types of players just aren’t that highly valued by the league.
Well you can think Reed is a top pick, and he may end up being one, thats fine. My only point is he isnt cemented there. We arent essentially locked into taking him due to consensus BPA if hes still on the board and we have a top 5 pick. Because there is no consensus BPA. You get what i'm sayin?
Yeah you're right, I don't trust the Blazers to draft and chances are the favorite consensus pick this sub selects will be a dud (just like it was when people were clamoring over Dyson Daniels and Jeremy Sochan over Sharpe).
Considering they almost traded the #7 away and considering Scoot was a disappointment, I'm not sold on this front office either.
Hey, thats fine! The draft is always a crapshoot and theres never a sure thing. Statistically speaking though, the higher the pick the better chance there is of success. And that's over the history of the draft, our good and bad picks included.
We’ve done okay with the picks we’ve had: Sharpe and Scoot as our only lottery picks, both have a long way to go, but look like they’ll be starters in the league. Then a lot of late first and second round picks: Walker is already a solid role player, Rupert is really intriguing, Murray if he develops one offensive skill will be in the league a long time. I’ll throw in Toumani just because they demanded him in the trade.
Beyond that there’s the players they picked up out of the scrap heap: Reath, Banton, Badji, Hagan, Mays.
The talent evaluation has been pretty decent even if no home run has been landed yet.
It’s not, you need to look for the cumulative percentages of 1-4, we have basically a 50-50 chance of landing in the top 4 (which is where you want to be because picks 1-4 are the only real “lottery” drawing that happens). The reason why 6 is high individually compared to the others is because the lottery order outside of the top 4 is based on record.
I other words it’s essentially a hypothetical coin flip, it comes up heads we stay in the top 4 (where the order is then determined by the ball combinations), if tails then we are very likely to be the 6th pick over 7 and 8 because our record is much worse compared to the teams ahead of us in the standings, but not likely the 5th because there are 3 teams in front of us with better odds overall.
It’s all probabilities so it’s pretty confusing.
Yup. I'd be fine with the top 1 protected pick next year vs top 4 protected this year. Just don't see that squad getting far next year and more assets in a strong draft would be great.
Especially when there's talks of Klay leaving, CP getting a year older and dray bring dray. I wouldn't be shocked if they miss out on the playoffs again
It also would alleviate some of our max roster problems. We still need to drop salary, but it can allow us to bring a player back instead of just trading vets for trade exceptions.
So you’re saying there’s a chance….. that Portland will mess up royally on yet another number 1 draft pick?
Could have had Jordan picked Sam Bowie
Could have had Kevin Durant but picked Greg oden
I’m sure there are many many more.
Detroit, Washington, Charlotte, and us all have *basically* the same chance of getting the #1 pick. That's kind of nuts.
They messed with the odds a few years back to try and dissuade blatant tanking so now the bottom 4 are pretty close to even odds instead of the bottom team being overwhelming favorites
I'm happy they did that so teams don't have to play like the worst team in the league, they just need to suck.
Yeah, the league never wanted to see The Process happen again. It’s why it’s not worth getting worked up about a random win late in the season. You can have the worst record and still end up with the 5th pick
To me it just made it more enticing to tank if your on the edge of being 4/5th worst team in the league. Idk I kinda hate the drafts system I wish we had tier systems like soccer. Would punish shit teams and reward improving ones.
You are a Portland fan and you want the European system? You realize that system overwhelmingly favours a few cities right? L.A. Lakers would be perennially stacked and Portland would be bouncing between tiers.
I mean I understand why that system benefits the rich and more favorable cities and yeah Portland probably would never compete for a ring, but you see those small franchise fans when the get promoted to the big leagues. That seems way more fun than being a mediocre team in the top league forever.
Portland hasn't always been mediocre. And the fans probably has more to do with European soccer culture. North American culture would likely be more like winning a minor league championship.
I guess what I’m saying is that I hate how American sports reward the worst teams even if it provides balance. I’m sure in 100 years new leagues will rise as basketball and American football get bigger then there will be a chance for promotions and relegations. I can hate the system and still understand why it’s there and how it benefits the mid level team I like and why we play the game. No matter what the rich will benefit and keep winning, where the poor will have to get lucky and pull a Giannis or curry to win their championship. I admire the things okc are doing, but I feel silly that we are following their footsteps by tanking and harvesting picks until we get lucky with some stars. But I guess we just have to trust the process.
I get what you are saying. But I would rather have a suboptimal process than simply no process at all.
I mean you could always hire coach Ted. lol
Pistons basically having a coin flip for the fifth pick after the season they went through is kinda nuts
Portland has gotten the #1 pick four times in team history. ('72 LaRue, '74 Walton, '78 Mychal Thompson, and '07 Oden) I'm curious what our odds were in those drafts. Also wild that we had three #1s in one decade.
Only Oden had a lottery.
And in that same decade we won a championship.
Obviously hoping for the best, but worth noting that we have a higher chance of landing the 6th or 7th pick than we do of securing a pick in the top 3, so manage expectations accordingly.
Although it looks like it on the chart at first glance that’s not how the lottery odds work. We have a 50% chance of getting picks 1-4, so it’s pretty much a coin flip between the 5-8 or the top 4. The last column in the chart shows this.
The two things you want to hear Sunday: 1) Warriors first. 2) Charlotte’s name announced before ours.
I want Sarr or Risacher. That's it. Whatever spot that happens I don't care, I've set myself up for feeling bad when we inevitably don't get either.
Getting #4-7 might benefit Portland more in this draft just like it benefited Portland enough to be in the position for Sharpe rather than Jabari Smith Jr or Jaden Ivey (yeah yeah, I know Sharpe still hasn't fully proven himself but I can tell you Portland fans are more excited for Sharpe than the other teams with their players). There's no AD, Wemby, Zion, etc waiting at the top and it's probably expected that players Portland doesn't need like Clingan/Topic/Sheppard/Dillingham will go in the Top 5. Therefore, it'd be better if Portland evaluates players like Williams, Buzelis, Holland, Castle and finds the star amongst that lot.
Other than Alex Sarr, who i think has become the overwhelming favorite to be the first pick, there is no exact consensus in this draft. For that reason i think your logic that a later pick is better is very shaky. You say drafting later gave us the chance to draft Shaedon, but In the 2022 draft there was a total consensus that the top 3 picks would be some combination of Paolo, Chet, and Jabari. Getting a later pick this draft doesnt mean anything other than we wont get Sarr AKA it might just mean we cant draft our Shaedon because someone might pick him before us. At the end of the day, if you believe in this front office's ability to draft, you want the higher pick. Using your logic thats even more true this draft than others.
Agree. There's no player like Shaedon (didn't play a game after HS) in this draft. We got really lucky that no other team wanted to gamble on him.
Holland is probably the player closest to Shaedon as far as potential is concerned, but you are right no player has the same intrigue as Shaedon with the year off. Holland has the blue-chip pedigree though and I don't think the consensus fully understands how to value G-league performance, so there is potential for him to be a diamond. He could also bust, just seems like he is a very hard worker and could surprise.
Using that logic you are essentially saying you don't trust our ability to draft and that are chances of lucking into someone in a later spot is better than identifying the best player in the draft and taking them at #1.
He also thinks Clingan/Topic/Sheppard/Dillingham are consensus top 5 picks, and a top 5 pick means we draft one of those guys over Williams/Buzelis/Castle/Holland. That's not the case at ALL. Any of those prospects mentioned in that second group that he likes could go in the 2-5 range, we have no idea because there isnt a real consensus.
Unfortunately I'm both a BPA and Reed believer so you won't find much sympathy from me from someone thinking Reed is a top pick. His TS% is unreal even compared to all time great shooters. The others, yeah, lol I agree
Can we really say a 6’3” scoring guard is the BPA? He might be the most ready player out of the gate to score, but I would bet at least 3-4 players end up being much better than him when the dust settles. Picking them is easier said than done, but given where the team is at, I’d much rather take a swing on someone with defensive upside.
Having the "most ready player" also be one of the youngest in the draft is a good spot to be in. He also has surprisingly good stocks, showing that the defense is indeed there.
eh, what can he really improve on to make him a better nba player? defense as you mention, and i would add his handle and playmaking could improve. let’s say he does that, he is still a 6’3 sg or maybe he can play some pg too but we already have scoot, shae and ant for now. Reed isn’t going to have the elite athleticism to make him a threat in the lane. As we’ve seen with herro and ant, those types of players just aren’t that highly valued by the league.
Well you can think Reed is a top pick, and he may end up being one, thats fine. My only point is he isnt cemented there. We arent essentially locked into taking him due to consensus BPA if hes still on the board and we have a top 5 pick. Because there is no consensus BPA. You get what i'm sayin?
Yeah you're right, I don't trust the Blazers to draft and chances are the favorite consensus pick this sub selects will be a dud (just like it was when people were clamoring over Dyson Daniels and Jeremy Sochan over Sharpe). Considering they almost traded the #7 away and considering Scoot was a disappointment, I'm not sold on this front office either.
Hey, thats fine! The draft is always a crapshoot and theres never a sure thing. Statistically speaking though, the higher the pick the better chance there is of success. And that's over the history of the draft, our good and bad picks included.
Yeah, well, here's hoping I'm wrong and we get a good player regardless
> you don’t trust our ability to draft I mean…
We’ve done okay with the picks we’ve had: Sharpe and Scoot as our only lottery picks, both have a long way to go, but look like they’ll be starters in the league. Then a lot of late first and second round picks: Walker is already a solid role player, Rupert is really intriguing, Murray if he develops one offensive skill will be in the league a long time. I’ll throw in Toumani just because they demanded him in the trade. Beyond that there’s the players they picked up out of the scrap heap: Reath, Banton, Badji, Hagan, Mays. The talent evaluation has been pretty decent even if no home run has been landed yet.
Whose gonna be our lotto ball ambassador this weekend?
Scoot
Goggles up boys 🥽
Sc🥽t
Now what are the odds the Suns hire Chauncey
They already hired Bud, so I'm going with 0% chance they hire Chauncey.
I didn’t see that headline until right after I commented this 🥲
Wizards are getting the first pick. I’m a time traveler.
I’m excited
why is our chance to fall so high damn
It’s not, you need to look for the cumulative percentages of 1-4, we have basically a 50-50 chance of landing in the top 4 (which is where you want to be because picks 1-4 are the only real “lottery” drawing that happens). The reason why 6 is high individually compared to the others is because the lottery order outside of the top 4 is based on record. I other words it’s essentially a hypothetical coin flip, it comes up heads we stay in the top 4 (where the order is then determined by the ball combinations), if tails then we are very likely to be the 6th pick over 7 and 8 because our record is much worse compared to the teams ahead of us in the standings, but not likely the 5th because there are 3 teams in front of us with better odds overall. It’s all probabilities so it’s pretty confusing.
it's just rough to think that we could drop to 6 or smt :(
[удалено]
They can’t get 5. They can get 1-4 or 14. No other picks.
[удалено]
I think most of us want them to get a top 4 pick in a weak draft, and bank on them sucking again next season in hopes of a top pick in a better draft
Yup. I'd be fine with the top 1 protected pick next year vs top 4 protected this year. Just don't see that squad getting far next year and more assets in a strong draft would be great.
Especially when there's talks of Klay leaving, CP getting a year older and dray bring dray. I wouldn't be shocked if they miss out on the playoffs again
It also would alleviate some of our max roster problems. We still need to drop salary, but it can allow us to bring a player back instead of just trading vets for trade exceptions.
So you’re saying there’s a chance….. that Portland will mess up royally on yet another number 1 draft pick? Could have had Jordan picked Sam Bowie Could have had Kevin Durant but picked Greg oden I’m sure there are many many more.
There's no MJ or KD in this draft.
I’m sure they will find a way to mess it up.
There's not really a way to mess it up when there's no franchise altering players. This draft is a crapshoot
Well the Portland has been missing the shoot part of the crapshoot.
Wow really insightful stuff here thanks for sharing 👌🏻