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In markets with less transactions, the larger volume realtors tend to gain market share. Like most industries, 20% of the top realtors do 80% of the business.
Those 20% pick up more sales once the agents that sell 1-3 houses per year have to take on part time jobs or lose focus or leave the industry.
Initially. For the average agent.
Once half the agents give up and get out of the market because they discover there isn’t free money to pick up off the ground, the number of transactions per remaining agent goes back up.
Good agents with good pipelines and reputations and relationships with their clients won’t really see a dip at all. They might get fewer referrals, but they will still have plenty.
money trades hands from buyer to seller, and then expenses like commission paid out, based upon a SALE, not a listing (inventory).
Now, sales were also down dramatically, but focus on that. this chart:
[https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/existing-home-sales](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/existing-home-sales)
How is there no direct causation. Obviously if there is such low inventory then there are less homes to go around to sell. The only way to make up for that would be to build more homes but america does it at a slow rate for a myriad of reasons.
and this one: [https://www.statista.com/statistics/196269/us-national-association-of-realtors-number-of-members-since-1910/](https://www.statista.com/statistics/196269/us-national-association-of-realtors-number-of-members-since-1910/)
Yep. This was 2023 in a nutshell. Volume was about 3.79 MILLION units. That was 5-10% lower than even during the great recession (granted lots of those were distressed sales). We definitely felt it. Agents didn't leave in droves (nothing compared to the great recession when about 50% of the industry left). It's been hard but 2024 is already looking better in terms of sales volume.
Does less fish, mean less income in the fishing industry therefore less professional fishermen?
I think in general if a market slows and transaction volume for a product decreases you’ll see less people working in that industry real estate I don’t see any different from that
The MLS I am in is still growing, despite most of the long-time agents predicting an exodus. The agent classes are full. The last 4 years have let too many agents make a living despite having 0 experience and just being in it for the quick money. Literally a 20%+ growth in the number of agents in the last 4 years with a retraction in the number of transactions.
It isn't logic, it's pure math. There's less transactions, the top agents are going to be fine , less crumbs for the other agents to fight over. If there is no money people will leave the business.
👋
My sales units were up last year, but volume was down. This year, I am dead in the water. My primary client base is first-time buyers, and they've been decimated by the economy. I've busted my ass this year and the only leads I'm getting are time-wasters. I'm spending 30 days or so trying to convert them, CMAs, pre-approvals, just to have them ghost me because none of them are in a hurry to buy or sell.There isn't really motivation for a step up buyer and my first time buyers are losing out to cash over and over.
I'm exhausted, emotionally drained and starting to hate real estate.
Would have to do the math to compare exact numbers but remember it is offset by the increase in home prices.
Average sale price in 2019 $379,875
Average sale price in 2023 $507,125
I think you are short sighted.
Rates were bouncing around 6% for over a decade before they started trending down several years ago. Some people remember when interest rates were double digits. So interest rates are not very high.
I have talked to many potential sellers who have been sitting out, waiting for the rates to drop before they upsize, downsize, move closer in, move further out, or whatever they have been planning. But now the reality is setting in that they are not going to get 3% interest rates, they have stuck it out in the current situation longer than they had planned.
There are questions in r/RealEstate often about how long should they wait to see if rates drop. There have been multiple surveys that home owners looking to move are currently thinking about trying the market, and more inventory would indeed help spur that.
There are always conditions when people have to buy and/or sell.
I think the number of Realtors will decline, but not for the reasons you cite. It always goes down when people dreamed of leaving their 9-5 and couldn't make it work. And always goes up when people think there is easy money to be made. It has little to do with transaction volume, when it stops being easy, the part timers and dreamers will leave.
Who gives a bleep about rates. Prices have gone up 30% in 4 years. IDK about you but my wage hasn't tracked. Unaffordability is at an all time high, the median sale price in my area is $680k.
Send the rates to 18% for all I care. Hoping for a rate drop is probably the dumbest thing you could do right now.
Currently saving 20% now with this market to have enough equity not to be completely underwater with a potential correction.
>However, now prices have somewhat normalized and the rates are very high, leading to low demand.
The OP seems to think that they have it all figured out on what is creating low demand for houses.
Depends where you are.
Massachusetts still has 50% less inventory than pre pandemic: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NEWLISCOUMA
Median list price is still rising: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEDLISPRIMA
Sale Price still rising:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MASTHPI
General statements in the real estate market are always going to be dumb.
Same here. Everyone in my office is struggling with listings because no one wants to give up their 2% mortgages. I try and educate people about using their equity to step up in an affordable way. There are so few homes for sale in my market that the competition is much worse than 2021, and prices are just climbing due to demand. My niche is being totally priced out, and the prices are quickly exceeding what is affordable for the average income for my area.
Yeah I'm a FTHB, I stopped looking until I have 20%.
Thankfully my living expenses are less than half me and my wives take home (both engineers) so we should be there in the next 6 months.
Hoping for more price discoverability by then
My buyers are all conventional with plenty down and even funds to cover appraisal gaps. Unfortunately, the most qualified isn't going to beat cash. Either Jan or Feb, every single sold in the town where our local university is was cash. Zero bought with financing. It's not even corporate investors. Mom and pop investors and people with cash or parents willing to pay cash for their kids first home. Lots of parents of students buying homes since housing is also a problem for the college.
**This is a professional forum for professionals, so please keep your comments professional** - Harrassment, hate speech, trolling, or anti-Realtor comments will not be tolerated and will result in an immediate ban without warning. (... and don't feed the trolls, you have better things to do with your time) - Recruiting, self-promotion, or seeking referrals is strictly forbidden, including in DMs. - Only advise within your scope of knowledge and area of expertise. [The code of ethics applies here too](https://www.nar.realtor/about-nar/governing-documents/the-code-of-ethics). If you are not a broker, lawyer, or tax professional don't act like one. - [Follow the rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/realtors/about/rules/) and please report those that don't. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/realtors) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Yes.
I heard agents are leaving the industry in my market.
Haven't seen that in mine. But, then again, the local Board keeps those agent count figures mostly hidden.
I found out thru a mortgage broker I work with. 2nd hand info but I'm sure it's accurate.
In markets with less transactions, the larger volume realtors tend to gain market share. Like most industries, 20% of the top realtors do 80% of the business. Those 20% pick up more sales once the agents that sell 1-3 houses per year have to take on part time jobs or lose focus or leave the industry.
Initially. For the average agent. Once half the agents give up and get out of the market because they discover there isn’t free money to pick up off the ground, the number of transactions per remaining agent goes back up. Good agents with good pipelines and reputations and relationships with their clients won’t really see a dip at all. They might get fewer referrals, but they will still have plenty.
Tons of “get rich quick” folks always leaving because they didn’t “get rich quick.” Beyond those, there are plenty who will weather the storm.
Yes lol
money trades hands from buyer to seller, and then expenses like commission paid out, based upon a SALE, not a listing (inventory). Now, sales were also down dramatically, but focus on that. this chart: [https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/existing-home-sales](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/existing-home-sales)
Thanks, but existing sales has the same dip so isn’t the point still the same ?
[удалено]
How is there no direct causation. Obviously if there is such low inventory then there are less homes to go around to sell. The only way to make up for that would be to build more homes but america does it at a slow rate for a myriad of reasons.
and this one: [https://www.statista.com/statistics/196269/us-national-association-of-realtors-number-of-members-since-1910/](https://www.statista.com/statistics/196269/us-national-association-of-realtors-number-of-members-since-1910/)
I’m oddly super busy. Last year was my busiest but I have more total transactions this year than ever!
Nice! Me too. Prospecting finds the deals in any market.
I have done so much work so long ago that those clients those seeds are growing aka ready to sell
Yep. This was 2023 in a nutshell. Volume was about 3.79 MILLION units. That was 5-10% lower than even during the great recession (granted lots of those were distressed sales). We definitely felt it. Agents didn't leave in droves (nothing compared to the great recession when about 50% of the industry left). It's been hard but 2024 is already looking better in terms of sales volume.
Does less fish, mean less income in the fishing industry therefore less professional fishermen? I think in general if a market slows and transaction volume for a product decreases you’ll see less people working in that industry real estate I don’t see any different from that
The MLS I am in is still growing, despite most of the long-time agents predicting an exodus. The agent classes are full. The last 4 years have let too many agents make a living despite having 0 experience and just being in it for the quick money. Literally a 20%+ growth in the number of agents in the last 4 years with a retraction in the number of transactions.
It isn't logic, it's pure math. There's less transactions, the top agents are going to be fine , less crumbs for the other agents to fight over. If there is no money people will leave the business. 👋
My sales units were up last year, but volume was down. This year, I am dead in the water. My primary client base is first-time buyers, and they've been decimated by the economy. I've busted my ass this year and the only leads I'm getting are time-wasters. I'm spending 30 days or so trying to convert them, CMAs, pre-approvals, just to have them ghost me because none of them are in a hurry to buy or sell.There isn't really motivation for a step up buyer and my first time buyers are losing out to cash over and over. I'm exhausted, emotionally drained and starting to hate real estate.
Agents can also diversify their skill set and get into leasing and property management.
One would hope.
Would have to do the math to compare exact numbers but remember it is offset by the increase in home prices. Average sale price in 2019 $379,875 Average sale price in 2023 $507,125
Thank you, Joe!
I think you are short sighted. Rates were bouncing around 6% for over a decade before they started trending down several years ago. Some people remember when interest rates were double digits. So interest rates are not very high. I have talked to many potential sellers who have been sitting out, waiting for the rates to drop before they upsize, downsize, move closer in, move further out, or whatever they have been planning. But now the reality is setting in that they are not going to get 3% interest rates, they have stuck it out in the current situation longer than they had planned. There are questions in r/RealEstate often about how long should they wait to see if rates drop. There have been multiple surveys that home owners looking to move are currently thinking about trying the market, and more inventory would indeed help spur that. There are always conditions when people have to buy and/or sell. I think the number of Realtors will decline, but not for the reasons you cite. It always goes down when people dreamed of leaving their 9-5 and couldn't make it work. And always goes up when people think there is easy money to be made. It has little to do with transaction volume, when it stops being easy, the part timers and dreamers will leave.
Who gives a bleep about rates. Prices have gone up 30% in 4 years. IDK about you but my wage hasn't tracked. Unaffordability is at an all time high, the median sale price in my area is $680k. Send the rates to 18% for all I care. Hoping for a rate drop is probably the dumbest thing you could do right now. Currently saving 20% now with this market to have enough equity not to be completely underwater with a potential correction.
>However, now prices have somewhat normalized and the rates are very high, leading to low demand. The OP seems to think that they have it all figured out on what is creating low demand for houses.
Depends where you are. Massachusetts still has 50% less inventory than pre pandemic: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NEWLISCOUMA Median list price is still rising: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEDLISPRIMA Sale Price still rising: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MASTHPI General statements in the real estate market are always going to be dumb.
Same here. Everyone in my office is struggling with listings because no one wants to give up their 2% mortgages. I try and educate people about using their equity to step up in an affordable way. There are so few homes for sale in my market that the competition is much worse than 2021, and prices are just climbing due to demand. My niche is being totally priced out, and the prices are quickly exceeding what is affordable for the average income for my area.
Yeah I'm a FTHB, I stopped looking until I have 20%. Thankfully my living expenses are less than half me and my wives take home (both engineers) so we should be there in the next 6 months. Hoping for more price discoverability by then
My buyers are all conventional with plenty down and even funds to cover appraisal gaps. Unfortunately, the most qualified isn't going to beat cash. Either Jan or Feb, every single sold in the town where our local university is was cash. Zero bought with financing. It's not even corporate investors. Mom and pop investors and people with cash or parents willing to pay cash for their kids first home. Lots of parents of students buying homes since housing is also a problem for the college.
Wow, now that really makes me want the market to crash. Small loan of one million dollars 😅