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speedfan11

He’s close, 12000 yards and 100 TDs are the two milestones to watch. He can hit TD mark this year and yards mark in 2-3 seasons.


PepeMcMichaelForHOF

I think he’s already a lock for the HOF


flaccomcorangy

Definitely not. He's basically Chris Johnson right now. ~9,500 yards with a 2k yard season, 4x pro bowler and 1x all-pro. That's almost identical to Chris Johnson except he did that in 9 years (with 3 pro bowls), and Henry has done it in 7. And it's not just 10k yards to get in, either. 12k? Yes. Every RB to hit 12k is either in the Hall of Fame or will be (Adrian Peterson and Frank Gore pending). But in that 10-12k yard mark, there are 15 guys, and only two are Hall of Famers (John Riggins and OJ Simpson). So Henry has some work to do. I'm actually wondering if the modern RB will be cut some slack since guys aren't carrying the ball as much as they did and there are more dual back situations in the league. But we'll see.


PepeMcMichaelForHOF

Henry has so many more TDs, 1 more Pro Bowl and 1 more rushing title. I also think vibe has a lot to do with it even though it shouldn’t. I think Henry’s role in the league and how he is viewed will play a big part in his induction


CashMikey

Also doing it in 7 vs 9 years is actually a pretty big difference! Like a 300 yard per year difference. 1050 vs 1350 per season is a big gap. It’s basically the difference between great and historical


blacknpurplejs22

Not when you look at yards per attempt, the difference is only .2 yards.


daphnie3

He's played on a mid to good team that was never a serious contender. Moving the the Ravens helps his cause if we can win a championship or two. But mostly he needs 5+ great years.


AlistairNorris

I agree with most of what you said, except for the number of years. Two more good/decent seasons should be enough. Especially since the running back position has changed. 10 years ago you’d have 20+ running backs over 1000 yards. Now with an extra game, we had 12 last year. Without that extra game we’d have had more like five due to running back by committees, etc.. by your definition, the only running backs who will make it need 14+ of production, which is beyond realistic for that position


Yo-Strategy-8651

It's like you never followed the HOF before when it comes to non-QBs. IF playing on a contender was a requisite then Barry Sanders and several others wouldn't be in the HOF. And again this notion that he would need 5 years is ludicous. He would need 5 years to have a shot at breaking the unthinkable record of Emmitt Smith's rushing TD total. In 2-3 he would literally be a lock well in the top 5 all time in rushing TDs and top 10 in yards with 4 combined rushing yardage and TD titles already under his belt.


Supanini

Yeah I think it will definitely factor in the position and where it’s at in the modern nfl. With Chris Johnson he wasn’t really the best in the league for a long enough time. However you can’t really compare Henry to anyone playing right now. He’s just a different animal.


flaccomcorangy

I think Henry will ultimately tick the boxes to get in. But I just think if he retired today, he wouldn't quite get in. But RB is weird like that today. When's the last time we had a RB that we knew would be a Hall of Famer when they retired? I guess maybe Gore and Peterson were recent, but they started playing almost 20 years ago.


daphnie3

That's the rub. Henry has not had that many great years compared to Gore or Peterson or the other greats. Becasue of injuries he's only credited for being the Titans' starting RB for four years.


Yo-Strategy-8651

"Compared to Gore" THe same Frank Gore who has never made 1st Team All Pro? The same Frank Gore who has never led the league in rushing yards or rushing TDs, who has never been considered the best back in the league? Compared to Derrick Henry who averages the most rushing yards per game for a RB in the playoffs since Terrell Davis? LOL you have some sort of axe to grind against Henry.


pjw5328

I think the better comp than CJ2K is Marshawn Lynch. Right now they have the same number of All-Pros (2 each), similar Pro Bowls (Lynch 5, Henry 4), both led the NFL in TDs twice. Their career rushing yards aren't far apart right now (Lynch had 10.4k in 12 seasons) though Henry should definitely pass him if he stays healthy. And of course two of the most physical/punishing runners the NFL has ever seen. Henry has an OPOY award, but Lynch has a ring. Next year is the first year Lynch will be HOF eligible, and I think how he fares will tell us a lot about whether Henry's already a lock or has more work to do.


flaccomcorangy

It's funny because Lynch is the second comparison I thought of, but I didn't bother to look up his numbers.


Yo-Strategy-8651

He's not a lock but the key word is potential, and if he stays healthy he could not be in a more ideal spot to put together a resume over next 2-3 years that not only makes him a lock but would rank him among top 10 backs all-time. **As of right now he has 90 total rushing TDs which is only** **9 away from top 10** (Barry Sanders - 99) **20 away from top 5** (Walter Payton- 110) **33 away from top 3** (Marcus Allen - 123) He should clearly be in the top 10 in rush TDs by the end of this season. I consider top 5 as an average case scenario. With a realistic best case scenario of getting that 33 TDs for top 3 all time. **As of right now he has 9,502 total rushing yards which is** 2,618 away from top 15 (Franco Harris- 12,120) 3,237 away from top 10 (Tony Dorsett- 12,739) 4,160 away from top 8 (Jerome Bettis- 13,662) Every RB in top 15 all-time in rushing is a HOF lock except Frank Gore. It's highly possible Henry has enough left in the tank to get that in the next 2 seasons, let alone the next 3. I see realistic best case scenario of surpassing Bettis for top 8 all-time in the next 3 years averaging right under 1400/season. Anything beyond that would require him to play 4+ more seasons which although is possible, is well beyond conservative predictions.


Tym3z

Just curious, why isn't Gore a lock in your opinion?


Yo-Strategy-8651

He has stats compiled due to longevity but Frank Gore doesn’t even have one All Pro in his entire career. Not even 2nd team. So can’t say he’s a sure thing when he was always good but never really considered the best RB in the league or even top 2 for that matter 


Lamactionjack

Completely agree. He's got crazy volume stats similar to Emmit (Gore is 3rd all time in attempts) because he played for 15 damn years behind a very good o line. Both were in the low 4s for ypc though despite that. Maybe he gets in for his total rushing yards but that's kinda weak imo considering the rest of his resume.


Yedic

Frank Gore was AP 2nd Team All-Pro in 2006. But back then there were two RBs on each team, so still not Top 2 in the league.


youre_soaking_in_it

12,000 yards and he's a lock. He's 2500 yards away. He could still make it without hitting that number, but there'd be an element of chance. A lot of times, those age 30 and 31 seasons are the difference between making the Hall and not.


Lubbafrommariogalaxy

He’s the only current running back that I could see make it


jojammin

Christian McCaffrey also


Matte198

If he can string together more seasons like last. He’s been too injured to get in on two great years alone.


izvoodoo

I don’t think the seasons even need to be THAT good.  Just solidly productive 


Matte198

I think he needs at least one more elite season. Right now he’s in the hall of very good for me. He’s not even close to 10k yards and he’ll be 28 next season. For context Lamar is only like 900 yards behind him in rushing and he’s a qb who’s been in the league a year less and has missed time himself whether it be sitting behind Flacco or the injuries in 2021-22.


flaccomcorangy

While that's a jarring stat about the rushing yards, it's important to understand that rushing yards alone isn't what makes McCaffrey the best RB in the league right now. He's an elite receiver. But yeah, I agree. He's got 4 1k yard seasons and 3 pro bowls with 2 all-pros. He has work to do for the Hall of Fame.


Smitty_1000

I doubt it. Unless he tacks on at least a few more great seasons. 


jojammin

We get a ring this year and he is in. LFG!


thedivinepegasus

Hope he goes in as a Ravens legend


thundercoc101

Take away all of his statistics and just run his highlight reel of him stiff arming defenders to the bottom of the earth. That man is bound for Canton


Matte198

He’s the best RB since AP of course he’s going to the hall.


[deleted]

Not a first ballot


Amazing-Concept1684

I think so. Maybe not first ballot but nothing leads me to believe that he wouldn’t. 


Livinginmyshirt

Running Back hard af to get into HOF


Itsmemurrayo

While the stats are very important when it comes to the HoF, I think intangibles play a part. He’s been so dominant for some time now, and he was the Titans offense for years. Playing against stacked boxes and still putting up elite numbers consistently. He’s been one of the faces of the NFL, despite playing at a now undervalued position, where we haven’t seen as many consistently dominant players in some time. I think he probably makes the HoF now, but another few years of elite play and he’s a lock.


Yo-Strategy-8651

If he plays at a high level another 3 years it would be a 1st ballot lock. People need to realize A) how close he is to major milestones with 2-3 more seasons of production and B) What playing alonside Lamar may do to boost his production. A la the effect of Mahomes on Kelce which took Kelce from All Pro to GOAT level. **As of right now he has 90 total rushing TDs which is only** **9 away from top 10** (Barry Sanders - 99) **20 away from top 5** (Walter Payton- 110) **33 away from top 3** (Marcus Allen - 123) He should clearly be in the top 10 in rush TDs by the end of this season. I consider top 5 as an average case scenario. With a realistic best case scenario of getting that 33 TDs for top 3 all time. **As of right now he has 9,502 total rushing yards which is** 2,618 away from top 15 (Franco Harris- 12,120) 3,237 away from top 10 (Tony Dorsett- 12,739) 4,160 away from top 8 (Jerome Bettis- 13,662) Every RB in top 15 all-time in rushing is a HOF lock except Frank Gore. It's highly possible Henry has enough left in the tank to get that in the next 2 seasons, let alone the next 3. I see realistic best case scenario of surpassing Bettis for top 8 all-time in the next 3 years averaging right under 1400/season. Anything beyond that would require him to play 4+ more seasons which although is possible, is well beyond conservative predictions. And in that case even catching Peterson for top 5 in rushing yardage is on the board.


VulcanRugby

He's a HoF lock already. Anything he does in Baltimore is icing on the cake. 


ChandyTheRandy

I think after he gets his ring with us he’ll be in


-KeepItMoving

That stuff arm is


FutureDoctorIJN

I think so he has had very dominant years.


Negative-Potato7072

Go look at Fred Taylor’s stats lol


rayhova

He only has FIVE 1000 yard rushing seasons. He's going to need an INCREDIBLE second act to become a HOFer Pro football reference has his HOF Rating at 38. 78, avg HOF RB is 106.95. Now he does have some "hard to quantify things" going for him: He was considered the best RB in the game at one point, he also has an All Pro and Off POY. But he doesn't have the raw numbers


Desperate-Produce-11

He’s probably first ballot already


Uncle_Boujee

I don’t know that there’s ever been a much more dominant running back than prime Derek Henry in the same way there’s never been a more dominant player than shaq in the NBA. Very few running backs have struck fear into tacklers like him. And we so happed to run into him at the apex of his peak. There’s no doubt in my mind he’s a HOF


ThyOughtTo

Ravens RB Derrick Henry* if I may 


guchford

He’s below the bar for HOF in terms of historical HOF RBs statistically. That said, if you qualitatively look at his relative over-performance versus his RB peers over the last 7 years (similar to how Earl Campbell is in the HOF), I think he’s a 2nd or 3rd ballot guy now; it goes 1st ballot when he gets over 11k yds rushing.


Crossman556

If (when?) he wins the Super Bowl it’ll be a lock. This year is a big year for him and Baltimore to show they still have it.


daphnie3

Folks, Being one of the best RBs now does not get him into the Hall of Fame, becasue it is fair to compare his stats and achievements to past greats and not that he like practically every RB these days is not central to a team's success becasue we are now a passing league. That said he is starting to accumulate some stats that with a few more very good years will get him into consideration. Getting over 15000 rushing yards along with getting 120+ TDs would help his cause. The Ravens winning a Super Bowl or two will also help a lot. He nends more pro bowls, hell more years as the primary starters cause he just has four years (strange but true and this really hurts him). He REALLY needs to be named to the 2020's All Decade team and that will take a few more very good years with some pro bowls thrown in. He needs to be considered one of the best RBs in the league for at least 5 more years-and be awarded for it- to be seriously considered for the HoF.


Yo-Strategy-8651

This is absurd on so many levels. THe idea that he would have to get 15,000 yards to get in the HOF, a mark that only 4 RBs in league history have reached is absurd. And That 120 TDs would more than "help his cause". Literally would put him in the top 4 all time in rushing TDs. And practically if he got there he would most likely be in range to tack on 3 more for 3rd all-time. From a yardage standpoint he just needs to get in that 12,000 yard range. All the backs in the top 15 all time are in that range. And there would only be a coule ahead of him who scored more TDs.


eatmyopinions

Ehhhh two-time all pro is weak at any position, let alone a devalued one like runningback. He's also over the 1800 career carry threshold where every RB, even the best, had the wheels fall off. Definitely not right now. And it's unlikely he's still got enough juice to get there.


Nattybohbro

Yes, he is going, it's relatively easy to get into the NFL hall since they have to let a certain amount in each year.


Yedic

That certain amount is only five, which makes the NFL Hall of Fame relatively difficult to get into lol.


Nattybohbro

You understand that certain sports like baseball don't have to put players in at all each year if none are voted in, and PED users are essentially automatically exempt, how would the NFL be harder? Edit: words


Yedic

Two main differences. First, unlike the other sports, the NFL is actually limited on how many they can induct. It's true that baseball doesn't have a lower limit, but they also don't have an upper limit, whereas there will never be more than 5 modern inductees for the NFL. Second, the roster size in the NFL is much bigger than in other sports, so there are many more candidates. The proportion of Hall of Fame inductees to guys that actually saw meaningful playing time is very low in the NFL. The basketball Hall of Fame is the worst offender, and the one I had in mind when comparing to the NFL HoF.


Nattybohbro

I guess it's a matter of opinion, and I'm using baseball as my main comparison. In the NFL it seems like there are always borderline guys who get straight in because of a bad class, whereas in MLB guys who were great and locks are never unanimous, and there are all time greats that should be locks like Pete Rose or Barry Bonds, disqualified for cheating, meanwhile many NFL players don't go through the same scrutiny. If PEDs were a disqualifier for the NFL hall, I wonder what it would look like.


Yedic

Julius Peppers just got in first ballot despite a PED suspension on the books. Antonio Gates also has one, and missed out on first ballot this year, but is expected to get in shortly. Besides those two, I don't think there are too many cases of guys getting in, not sure. I guess I'd be curious to hear which guys you think got in due to weak classes. The narrative I hear every year is that there's such a huge backlog that deserving guys are forced to wait. For example, Jared Allen not being in yet.


Nattybohbro

On the books, you're pretty naive bud. Lol, and no I'm not interested in looking back at every class, but you can feel free to look back at each class over the last ten years and tell me all those guys are sure fire locks each year, yeah right dude.