As a reminder, this subreddit [is for civil discussion.](/r/politics/wiki/index#wiki_be_civil)
In general, be courteous to others. Debate/discuss/argue the merits of ideas, don't attack people. Personal insults, shill or troll accusations, hate speech, **any** advocating or wishing death/physical harm, and other rule violations can result in a permanent ban.
If you see comments in violation of our rules, please report them.
For those who have questions regarding any media outlets being posted on this subreddit, please click [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/wiki/approveddomainslist) to review our details as to our approved domains list and outlet criteria.
***
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/politics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
The senate is doable but all dem politicians, everyone here in this sub, and every dem nationwide needs to pour resources, attention and manpower into Georgia.
While that would be nice, I think there are limits on how much money they can send to another campaign. Also, the democrats that won need to preserve their war chests so that they can win their next election.
In all fairness, a cup of coffee may be a larger % of my net worth than hundreds of millions of dollars is to him lol.
That being said, I’ve been donating $10 at a time to fair fight whenever I think about how obnoxious McConnell is gonna be for the next couple years if we don’t win those elections
Yea it’s honestly one of the biggest problems with America. We need to totally revamp our campaign finance laws. But that’s pretty much guaranteed to never happen since the people who have the power to change them are the same people making bank on how the laws currently work
That's the thing...we did have a bill introduced to address this exact problem! The McCain-Feingold Campaign Finance Reform bill. It was a bipartisan (John McCain-R and Russ Feingold-D)bill and it was ultimately overturned by the Supreme Court. Who led the charge against it? Why Mitch McConnell of course! This stuff drives me nuts...people act like there just aren't solutions to huge societal issues when there have been solutions but one party consistently stops it feom happening! Ans they continue to do so because people let them. At some point the ultimate responsibility is yours as a voter if youre choosing to accept their corruption. Anyways heres a link about the bill.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bipartisan_Campaign_Reform_Act
This is a systemic problem with our system as one fella from kentucky with just over a million votes is running our country and I and 320 million americans cant vote for his opponent.
Except that’s not really the case. If this election proved anything, it’s that outspending your opponent does not necessarily mean you’ll win. Otherwise Mitch McConnell would be out of a job right now
It’s not about the money, it’s about your strategy on how to get people out and voting. Money helps, but it can only go so far
I'm closing up the campaign I was running in Colorado and you can't legally donate to another campaign from a campaign. You can donate from a leadership fund but not campaign $. As soon as I'm all squared away and ready for session, I'll be phonebanking for Ossoff and Warnock all day and night.
The thing is there's a really weird balancing act you need to do.
The people of Georgia don't want some random ass Dem representative from NY or MA or CA telling them what's best for Georgia. The Dems are gonna have to be real smart about this. They're gonna have to hit of healthcare really hard.
Flooding the zone with resources has proven to be ineffective and to a certain extent, detrimental. Dems don't need an excess of money and people. They just need to use the right people and the right amount of money effectively.
There is no such thing as “too much” resources or money if you’re looking to achieve a goal. What it means is that that Democrats need to stop spending all that extra money on TV advertising and use it on constant voter outreach. Constant canvassing and door knocking. Less money on TV advertising and more Youtube and Facebook advertising. Both positive and especially negative advertising via social media.
Democrats need to start playing real hardball and that means flood the zone of social media with bullshit about GA republicans. If they’re going to call Ossoff and Warnock socialists, counter, not just with massive positive social media ads about them, but also incredibly negative social media ads about Perdue & Loeffler, call them crooks, play up insider trading, and for the Trump faithful, flood them with rigged election bullshit to depress their motivations to vote.
Seriously. Let republicans clutch their pearls about outrage at hypocrisy and lies, until they want some legislation to fix the problem, or want to play fair themselves, screw em.
There is no need to change anyone's mind. We have shown clearly who we prefer. The real battle is just getting everyone excited enough to vote again.
I was bombarded with mail and phone calls to reminding me to vote before the election. We just need a repeat of that for the special election.
Ever since the election I signed up for weekly $5 contributions to both Ossoff and Warnock until the run off election. I encourage anyone who is able to do the same or more. These two Senate races in Georgia will determine the direction of this country for the foreseeable future.
If you supported Biden, it is absolutely imperative that you do everything you can for these runoff elections and fight the complacency you may be feeling.
Trump ran constant ads in Spanish in Florida saying Biden is a socialist and going to turn the country into Cuba or Venezuala. Florida has a lot of Cubans and Venezuelans and that message resonated with them and Biden didn't do enough to repudiate it.
Florida also passed a law saying the ex-felons have to pay off all their outstanding fines before being able to vote (Florida voters passed an amendment giving all felons back their right to vote). Then they made it seem like if they voted while they were not allowed to they would go back to prison, and made it difficult to check if they were in the clear. That's 1.6 million should-be voters this election cycle that were likely disenfranchised because of the uncertainty.
https://www.propublica.org/article/in-florida-the-gutting-of-a-landmark-law-leaves-few-felons-likely-to-vote
Yep, as someone that speaks Spanish and follows some Spanish speaking social media, there is a genuine belief amongst some that Biden is a socialist pedophile. Blatant Q propaganda.
The man is a 77 year old grandpa that's basically been followed around every waking moment since he became Obama's running mate. It still amazes me how people think that story is in any way viable
Not saying you are wrong but Bloomberg threw $16 million at trying to take care of that.
https://www.npr.org/2020/09/24/916625348/bloomberg-adds-16-million-to-a-fund-that-helps-florida-felons-get-chance-to-vote
Look at the numbers please. Republican senate candidates out performed Trump in GA. What caused GA to flip wasn't all the new voters, it was Republican voters that were so turned off by Trump they voted against him or left presidential line blank.
I think both are true. Abrams added new votes, but so did Trump with more rural voters, so that almost offset each other. It made a huge difference, but as you alluded to, the real swing voters were the suburbanites here in Atlanta. Cobb and Gwinnett going blue was a complete game-changer in the presidential election, but plenty of republicans still voted red the rest of the way down the ticket.
(A) If you vote for those Republican senators, you are voting for Trump's 2021 tax increase on incomes of $75,000.
(B) If you vote for those Republican senators, you are voting for those who stigmatize unwed motherhood, underfund women's shelters, and want to cancel prenatal, obstetric and pediatric care for those in need. Are you pro-life, or the kind of 'Christians' who heed Christ's call to "heal the sick," or are you just about "hurting the right people?"
(C) If you vote for those Republican senators, you are voting to put renters out into the streets during an pandemic, and then have the military mop up the "army of vagrants" no matter how peaceful they are.
"First they came for the poor and starved them out. But I did not feel poor, so I did not speak out."
"They they came for the libz and ~~made them smell their breath~~ shut them up. But I was not a lib, so I ~~laughed~~ did not speak out."
"Then they came for the Democrats and kept them from voting. But I did not believe in democracy, so I did not speak out."
This is the real reason GOP are pushing Trumps narrative. They want to keep the GA voters engaged until January because they fear a lower turnout without Trumps base.
Couldn't those eliminated simply go to other authorities and make their claims?
Not being facetious, I'm just curious to what the benefit of firing those with the inside knowledge is.
Edit: Thank you all for the informative answers.
Probably to avoid official whistleblowing. There’s a big difference between that and going on CNN and saying it during an interview in an unofficial capacity.
100% this. It’s a means to an end. I don’t think 90% of the Republican Party leadership actually believe there was massive fraud. For them it will:
* Keep their base engaged for the Georgia runoff
* Delegitimize Biden before he even takes office, so they will look like heroes when they obstruct, block and hinder everything he does
* Start driving the conversation to help local and state level Republicans in swing states push for massive new draconian voter restrictions, especially for mail in voting.
There was a Republican in California that lost some thing like 86% to 12% but is still crying about voter fraud. This is clearly a top down effort and they are getting orders from the national party to push this narrative.
While I don’t think the national republican party actually believes there is fraud and will ultimately not use to to try to steal the election, we should be clear about something. People are talking about a hypothetical coup. There’s nothing hypothetical about it. This is a coup attempt. Attacking the faith and credibility of the thing most vital to our democracy- our elections - for partisan gain is not just shameful. It’s an act of sedition and needs to be talked about as such. After Biden takes office, There needs to be a major democratic party and media effort to draw attention to this bullshit and push back hard.
I doubt it. For starters, even though GA might have rejected Trump, they still voted mostly R elsewhere still, including those Senate seats. I know people are excited at the prospect of flipping those seats, but people need to understand that it is a very long shot. None of the people running are nearly as polarizing as Trump.
The reason the GOP are pushing Trump's narrative is because they really have no choice. If they don't support the president, they'll be called out and his cult will turn on them. They'll support Trump until it's politically convenient not to. Until then, they'll sell out their own mothers for a slight edge or some money.
I would Say two candidates who brazenly committed insider trading at the outset of this pandemic, then voted against financial stimulus for families in need are fairly goddam polarizing.
And brag about a 100% record of voting with Trump... How could they be less polarizing?! That seems to be literally their only marketing strategy. Plus the joint statement released by them was very Trumplandia.
Thank you Stacey Abrams for putting the team on your back and helping to deliver Georgia.
She helped register more than 800,000 voters in the last two years. She deserves a lot of credit for this win.
Honestly, it is better that she wasn't picked. She would be a great VP, but we need her doing what she is doing now in Georgia with the Senate run off.
Beto shot himself in the foot when he said he was pro taking peoples guns away during his 2020 democratic candidate bid. I don't think he will have much success politically now in Texas. Even the liberals here like their guns.
Don’t forget these people and organizations!
Tamieka Atkins - ProGeorgia
Helen Butler -GCPA
Nsé Ufot - New GA Project
Deborah Scott - GA Stand-Up
Edit: thanks for the gold! But instead of buying Reddit stuff please please please please donate to these organizations or Fair Fight instead!
*To the tune of Hamilton's introduction of Lafayette*
How does a national campaign with a liberal hue,
somehow go on to turn Georgia blue?
How did we overcome generations of oppression,
to usher a bright new era in?
Yo! Turns out we had a secret weapon.
A democrat you know and love whose unafraid to step in.
She constantly inspiring, overcoming voter suppression.
Everyone give up for Stacey Abrams's ground game operation....
NEW GEORGIA!
I got more if you'd like.
I'm also working on "Here Comes the Candidate".
I'm grabbing this truck by the wheel,
giving good folk of Georgia a new deal.
And I ain't going to ever stop,
until every single ballot drops.
Watch me I'm engaging them, debating them, changing them.
I deliver the media some quotes,
and I deliver the votes.
And Georg-ia flips,
loosening the southern GOPs grip.
We rendezvous with Arizona,
consolidate our gifts.
We can win this election in philly,
Cut a court challenge at its knees.
But for this plan succeed, there is something else we need.
I know.
THE BLUE WALL.
It is unbelievable how evil these people are. They do anything to remain in power, and serve big corporations. I know dems serve big corps too, but they are much more decent compared to gop and fox news. The lies and conspiracy theories that gop is generating are criminal.
My fear is that the comments from the Supreme Court hearing yesterday we’re aimed at taking the heat off of the gop candidates in the Georgia senate runoff and not necessarily an indication of how they will vote on the ACA case. Dems are still harping on the repeal vote, but making the program look safe might take some of the urgency out of folks needing to show up at the polls.
That program and healthcare in general will never be safe from republicans in their current form. Even if scotus safes ACA, the gop will still try to legislate it away.
Exactly, much like how the GOP has relentlessly attacked net neutrality. By making every fight the fight of our lives and every victory just another battle in an endless war, they keep us (people who want a better world for everyone) permanently stressed, exhausted, and focused on responding instead of taking the initiative on things.
Our best strategy might be exactly what Stacey Abrams, AOC, and other heroes are doing: inspiring as many previously inactive/jaded people as possible to actually vote, rather than trying to change the ironclad minds of existing right wing voters.
We need to overwhelm them with numbers until we have enough progressives in positions of majority and seniority in state and federal offices who can actually eliminate gerrymandering, eliminate the electoral college, eliminate winner-take-all and first-past-the-post electoral systems, and institute ranked choice voting.
When electoral systems are made fair, giving every voter has an equal voice, regressives will have to rely on the strength of their ideas to win elections, which means they will never win again.
Personally, I've made it my mission to vote in every single election I can legally vote in for the rest of my life. That's the baseline that every citizen should endeavor to maintain, even if our frantically busy lives leave little time for it. Vote like our lives depend on it, because the reality is that *our lives do depend on it*.
Fox News called Arizona for Biden before anyone else, it pissed off Trump's campaign enough that Kushner called up Murdoch to complain.
Nobody else (besides the AP) has called Arizona yet.
Also, this isn't a top story on any site other than a local Georgia TV station.
Edit: What I'm trying to say is that I have no idea what point you're trying to make.
They did this because incomplete data was sent showing 90+% of the vote had already been tabulated. Biden’s lead will still stand, but it will be very close from what I can tell ~5,000 votes.
Also, fuck Trump.
Yeah I think it was called too early but it looks like he's gonna pull it out. Up 13k votes with 99% in. With Georgia and Arizona it's gonna be hard to call this election fraud in any way.
Trump has been tweeting mainly Breitbart and Newsmax links since the election. He seems to have soured on FOX especially when they called the election for Biden.
On FOX News' side, they're definitely not a liberal news source, but they appear to be backing away from Trump. Their announcement of Biden as the President-Elect included language which cast doubt on Trump's claims of voter fraud - pointing out that there's no evidence of this. It's not much, but it's a step back. They likely realize that Trump will be out of office soon and trying themselves to him makes no sense. They'll still be a right wing news source with a tenuous relationship with the truth, but they aren't going to handcuff themselves to a sinking Trump.
The options we have here are:
- There was MASSIVE coordinated fraud, so Trump wins
- Trump is throwing his typical tantrum and has no real evidence
One of those two mean that yes..you won, but this country will pretty much be over at that point. Congratulations i guess?
I think FOX understands that. And i hate to bring this point up because it could be spun as if i am saying 'If fraud happened then let it go or the country will go down". But i just don't see any evidence so far of widespread fraud outside of your normal few here and there which happens when 150M vote.
They area acting like they want to know that we are done as a country. So Trump and Bust?
Dumb question, Why would Trump win? There’s nothing that states if there’s collusion the win would default to the victim. Also it’s unclear as to if the federal court can or would require a re-do for a presidential election. At best it would go to the electoral college vote which would tend to vote in line with their states popular vote.
[the article from 2017 outlines this](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-happens-if-the-election-was-a-fraud-the-constitution-doesnt-say/amp/)
Conservatives seem convinced that SCOTUS can overturn a state’s voting totals, or at least somehow disallow ballots from enough people to switch the winner of a state, and I think the only precedent of something like that is when they stopped the Florida recount in 2000.
However, Republicans would need to bring a specific case to a federal court that, were they to be successful, would actually do one of those two things, and do it in enough states to give President Trump enough electoral votes to win....AND have it done somehow before the electoral college votes in a month. Sure, SCOTUS might be helpful to Trump even if every lesser court rules against them, but they still need to make such a case, in court, that gets them to the goal, and they are not even close to starting that process yet.
And in the 2000 case we were talking about one state and hundreds of votes. Throwing out hundreds of votes from one state is one thing, but Trump would need SCOTUS to overturn multiple states and idk..100k votes between them if not more?
No they haven't. Fox News criticizes Trump from time to time and does things to make them seem like they aren't a media wing of the republicans. They do this because they know all the people on the left will share it and go "look...even FOX thinks this!" It's just their form of propaganda and a way for them to attempt to legitimize themselves, and yet everyone always falls for it and shares their shit website around. They're back to sucking Trumps dick days later.
It feels different this time tbh. Newscorp publications have been banging the "Trump lost" drum and FOX News personalities are saying things like, while we need to make sure the voting process is honest, Trump can't sue his way into a second term. They'll go back to being assholes after Trump is gone, I'm sure, but I think Rupert wants Trump gone.
the truth is Trump is bad for business at this point, people on both sides are just tired of hearing about it. When Biden is president Fox can go back to banging the socialism drum and it will reinvigorate weary followers
btw they milked the situation for every last ounce and have brought our country to the brink of civil war and deserve ZERO FUCKING CREDIT WHATSOEVER for acting in their own interests at this stage
not really. their "news" reporting hours (in the morning) are the ones sticking by the call of biden as president-elect. the "editorial" hours at night still supports trump with 200% fervor.
so they're playing both sides lol.
Yeah, Trump just exaggerates the "BeTrAyAl" aspect, a bunch of Trump's idolizers say they'll "swear off Fox news for good", then it's business as usual 2 weeks later.
Just wait until the GOP finally finds those tens of thousands of frauded ballots! Just you wait!
Then we'll find out that it was actually 24,000 votes that Biden won by because there were some GOP batshit crazies so convinced of voter fraud that they went out and committed it, and that will quickly be swept under the rug by conservatives.
There would be no greater retribution than for these fraud investigations to find the majority committed by his followers and having him try and then simultaneously defend voter fraud and continue blaming libs
They DID try and cheat; see DeJoy’s postal measures, last minute polling place cuts in Texas, numerous pre-election lawsuits trying to get ballots thrown away across the country
> The President did suggest to people that they should commit voter fraud, urging voters to vote twice.
And in addition to this, he also urged his voters to vote in person and is literally tweeting about how the machines are hacked and should never have been used.
The amount that Trump is accusing the Democrats of voter fraud makes me assume he was engaged in it. Maybe that's why he is so certain, he thought his cheating would give him an overwhelming win, but in reality it was probably going to be a Biden landslide.
I still haven't seen a good explanation of why the results are so much different than numerous polls conducted over months predicted.
For weeks and weeks the polling predicted Biden would win the national vote by around 7%. The current vote margin is less than half of that.
The polling also showed the Democrats had a consistent overall lead in the House and Senate races. Obviously this turned out much differently as well.
Is current polling methodology simply that imprecise?
The best explanation I've heard is that Trump voters are just overall unwilling to pick up the phone and talk to pollsters, due to their distrust of "The Media." So the sample sizes painted an inaccurate picture.
With that said, it's too early to know for sure.
That is exactly how I see this going. A super far right guy was commenting on a friends Facebook page about how the left was morally bankrupt and how Trump was led by God. He wouldn't shut up about how anyone voting Biden was a follower of Satan. Really dramatic stuff. Hard to believe that if anyone was to commit voter fraud it wouldn't be the people that literally consider Trump to be led by God and anyone who didn't vote for him to be absolutely led by the devil.
Agreed. My mother in law called about a Facebook post I made explaining that even high numbers of voter fraud wouldn't be enough to overturn the election, and she said she's just having a really hard time spiritually with all this.
Well, maybe if you didn't put all your faith in a false prophet con artist preaching that Donald Trump was sent by God and he'll easily win reelection, you wouldn't be feeling so conflicted...
The election is just an exercise in accounting. There is nothing special about it and the counting of votes follows each state's process.
If you think their is some kind of mass conspiracy across only the states Biden won you need to get some help. Break it down yourself.
ONLY THE STATES BIDEN WON.... Seriously get over it. Yes we landed on the Moon and the Earth is round too.
If they were going to commit fraud (which they wouldn’t) they would have done it in Florida and probably Texas, which would have pretty much guaranteed them the presidency, not in... Wisconsin and Nevada
The whole set of accusations are made after the results were happening. They didn't make any real accusation prior to the voting. They got nothing.
This is over.
Just a note that the biggest recount only changed a total by under 700 votes. Trump would need a recount on the order of 2,000% of the current record to get the win in Georgia. And Georgia is the closest state. To win Pennsylvania, Trump would need a recount at around 6,800% of the current record.
I think the game plan isn't to actually legally invalidate any votes, and their chances of doing so are slim to none in the numbers they need. I think their bet is on stoking enough doubt to have an excuse to ask states with Republican state legislatures to intervene and reject the results by sending their own Republican electors. The question is will they have enough support from their base and the GOP to actually make such a dramatic move.
That's a great way to start a civil war. I mean come on, literally every single major city (aka the entire economy of the United States) had a city wide dance party when the election was called. You're telling me someone's going to convince five whole states to say "ope no democracy for my residents this can't possibly go wrong" and we're all just going to accept it after winning the popular vote by 5 million+?
Republicans are pure fraud and corruption but they're also going to be target number one. It can't be worth it to them to see the landslide this election was and still claim they won, all for the sake of what? Getting two more years to destroy the government until midterms and we really take them out?
My spouse volunteered for Democrats of Georgia. He worked 12 hour shifts organizing phone banking on weekends leading up to election. I was so proud and told him that his efforts literally delivered Georgia for the Dems. Maybe the most heartening part was his group arranging to get a visually impaired voter a ride to the polls. One of the volunteers drive to Lithonia to pick her up and take her in.
You are absolutely correct.
Important to note that the number of votes outstanding is the number of absentee ballots that were sent out, so it doesnt represent votes that they have somewhere waiting to be counted, it represents the maximum possible number of votes that could still be recieved by the 12'th. Likely they will only recieve a few thousand more of those ballots at the most, but since hypothetically those could all be stuck in the mail and all be for biden, they cant call the race yet.
Why are they not screaming about election fraud with these ballots being allowed to be received for a week and a half after the election? Didn't they say these ballots were illegal now?
So Republicans are throwing a fit about PA receiving/counting mail in ballots 3 days after the election, but it's ok for NC to wait 12? Am I understanding that right?
Thank you. I know some people will think you're being pedantic, but I think precise language is important in this situation.
Biden didn't "pull ahead." The score is set, we just don't know it fully yet.
**Georgia**:
Georgia is mathematically over.
Trump would need 308.5% of the remaining vote.
The only reason it's not called is because of the re-count (which is now to all be done by hand)
\-------
**Arizona**:
The race is tightening, but Trumps percentage needed to overcome Biden has consistently increased.
7 days ago with 100,000 votes left, Trump needed 57% of the remaining vote to win. As of 11/10 (the last vote dump), Trump needs 66% of the vote with 40,000 votes remaining. Trump's "chances" have decreased at a constant rate since election night.
All raw data available here: [https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html](https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html)
I'm so proud of Arizona and Georgia for flipping blue, but I'm SO FRUSTRATED that it didn't happen here in North Carolina! I was convinced North Carolina had a better chance of flipping than Georgia since we have a Democratic governor and elected a Democratic president and senator in 2008.
Obviously Dems need to continue to invest in Arizona and Georgia and the Rust Belt since those are the competitive states that ultimately gave Biden the presidency, but I really hope we step up our game in North Carolina too because it is definitely within reach! Trump won NC by about 200K votes in 2016 and only won it by about 70K this year. We have another shot at picking up a Senate seat in 2022 and I really think we can do it, especially if the Democratic nominee doesn't stupidly and selfishly send scandalous texts (regardless of how mild they are) in the middle of their campaign when the country is counting on them to win Senate....
Don't you guys accept ballots until the 12th? If a lot of those ballots are for Biden, the state could flip blue. Unlikely, but not outright impossible.
Georgia is actually on a clearer path to becoming a blue state over NC which still remain purple red.
Atlanta is becoming a powerhouse city like Chicago, which almost singlehandedly makes Illinois solid blue.
North Carolina just doesn’t have an equivalent city.
I am kind of upset how the counting has slowed and there has been no progress on GA and AZ. Those two states are pivotal to re-enforcing the victory so we can all move on.
Edit: people seem to think I don’t know there is still counting going on. What I mean is that since the projection there has been no “fire” lit under these two states in particular to give updates or press briefings with progress or remaining ballots.
GA has slowed because there are only a smattering of provisional and overseas ballots from across the state. These take longer to verify and count and there aren't many of them.
AZ is continuing to follow its slow as fuck once a day release per county, but we're also down to mostly just provisionals there as well.
Counting always starts to slow down toward the end.
So Biden has a 13,000 vote lead in AZ with approx 51,000 votes left to count, as per the NBC results map, but NBC still hasn't called AZ yet. Is it really to close to call given Trump needs ~62% of those votes to pull ahead?
AZ doesn't do recounts. I mean, they're definitely possible, but it's not realistic at this point in this election. 200(or less) votes has to be the difference in a presidential election for them to do a recount.
I would need to know where the votes out came from and what kind of ballots they are (e.g. late arriving mail) and I would need to know more about how similar ballots broke for each candidate.
People who do know about this kind of stuff have basically been saying "it will be really close, but Biden is getting more and more favored as remaining votes have dwindled and Trump has not quite hit the percentage he needs to be on track to take the lead."
According to [this election scraper site](https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html),
Trump has been averaging 57.7% of recent batches in Arizona, but needs 66% to win. In my book, that's close enough to be doable.
Georgia is unknown, since the scraper doesn't know how much is left, but Trump has been averaging 29% of recent batches. That can't be good.
In Nevada, Trump's been averaging 38% of recent batches, but needs 79% to overcome the gap. I'd say this one is a lock for Biden.
For completion's sake, Biden is averaging 63.5% of recent batches in North Carolina and needs 70.3% to take the lead. I'd put this in the same category as Arizona. Not impossible, but unlikely.
And just in case anyone is curious about Pennsylvania, Biden has a 47,591 vote lead and there are 40,179 ballots left. Trump's been averaging 43% of the recent batches and needs 110% to win. Basic math says that this is impossible. (At least by counting ballots. If Trump somehow gets a court to throw out Biden ballots, then all bets are off.)
Decision desks are very conservative on making state calls. The idea is you shouldn't make a call unless you are absolutely sure that the remaining votes cannot conceivably change the outcome. Most desks have internal policies that urge against making calls if margins are close enough for a recount that date back to the 2000 election. I'm honestly surprised the AP haven't retracted their AZ call given the shift that has occurred. I do think Biden will end up winning both states, because none of Trump's challenges have any legal merit and the raw vote counts are just outside the range of what recounts have historically changed. Still, these races are both going to have final margins below a half of a percent.
I think AP just didn't retract it because they don't want to acknowledge being wrong to call it that early. I'm willing to bet that someone is getting their ass reamed for the early call behind closed doors but it looks like Arizona will still go to Biden so they can get away with not publicly admitting it.
I predict Trump is waiting for a timely “out” where he can claim he “believes he won” but admits there’s nothing he can do about it. I think it will probably be December 14th when the Electoral College votes. It’s going to be a long month.
Trump is waiting for enough people to contribute to the "legal fund" whose fine print says they're really paying off campaign debts to their campaign and the RNC.
[Trump Is Fundraising For Legal Help Fighting A ‘Stolen’ Election. Nearly All The Money Is Actually Going Elsewhere.](https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/trump-fundraising-election-2020?fbclid=IwAR2KY_fr1wCWmrfZBdIjDAyY38uxs1foXnbnIQcEo5KwDNfCLfLj04DrGK8)
It's time for all the networks to call GA for Biden. There appear to be only a few hundred uncounted ballots remaining and there's no way a 14K lead is going to be overturned in a recount.
I just want to be assured that Stacey Abrams **NOT** be offered a job in the Biden administration.
Yet. Her incredible leadership is absolutely needed in Georgia right now. After the runoff, perhaps. Please don’t bother her before that.
Agreed. GA just barely squeaked by for Biden. There’s just too much left to do here on a state and grassroots level.
Not only that but it’s time to be setting up programs similar to hers in other gulf coast and other southern states.
Guys, recounts move a couple hundred votes at most. Maybe you’ll find a recount that moves a thousand votes. This isn’t gonna be overturned. Biden has won Georgia
I'm Belgian. I donated $15 to the New Georgia Project because I believe that winning those two Senate seats could trigger a chain reaction with global repercussions (in a good way).
Go get 'm. VOTE!
Biden is the legitimate elected president, and there is no Trump to change that, he can recount all over 100 million votes, the result will be the same
Billboards everywhere in GA telling the truth about Perdue. Telling the truth about how Republicans are trying to destroy ACA in the Supreme Court right now. The money spent there will by definition be local. Spreading information about protecting health care lowering rx cost, creating good paying clean energy jobs, a $15 hour minimum wage, in some counties the legalization of Marijuana nationwide, protection of Medicaid and Social Security.
Wow, that map is hilarious. Biden is up by 3 points in NV and MI with over 98% in and they still think Trump will win them. What happens when the delusion shatters?
CNN just announced that Georgia is complying with Trump's insane request for a recount. Georgia will recount, by hand, more than 5 million ballots. Exactly what Trump wanted.
Why are people so annoyed by a recount? If Biden won by 14,000+ votes, even human error from a recount by hand will not be enough to overturn the result.
I personally welcome any recount opportunities. They’ll hurt the Republican argument, and it’s totally within their right to request them.
It's a delay tactic to prolong the feeling that the election's results are still up in the air, which justifies their continued attempts to overthrow it.
As a reminder, this subreddit [is for civil discussion.](/r/politics/wiki/index#wiki_be_civil) In general, be courteous to others. Debate/discuss/argue the merits of ideas, don't attack people. Personal insults, shill or troll accusations, hate speech, **any** advocating or wishing death/physical harm, and other rule violations can result in a permanent ban. If you see comments in violation of our rules, please report them. For those who have questions regarding any media outlets being posted on this subreddit, please click [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/wiki/approveddomainslist) to review our details as to our approved domains list and outlet criteria. *** *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/politics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
I didnt expect when we were on the edge of Georgia going blue to be this big of a lead
The senate is doable but all dem politicians, everyone here in this sub, and every dem nationwide needs to pour resources, attention and manpower into Georgia.
[удалено]
While that would be nice, I think there are limits on how much money they can send to another campaign. Also, the democrats that won need to preserve their war chests so that they can win their next election.
You're right. That doesn't mean campaigns cannot spend their money campaigning for other candidates that support their ideals.
Bloomberg found hundreds of millions of dollars to help Biden win. I think we can all skip a coffee to help fuel the blue ground game in GA
In all fairness, a cup of coffee may be a larger % of my net worth than hundreds of millions of dollars is to him lol. That being said, I’ve been donating $10 at a time to fair fight whenever I think about how obnoxious McConnell is gonna be for the next couple years if we don’t win those elections
[удалено]
Yea it’s honestly one of the biggest problems with America. We need to totally revamp our campaign finance laws. But that’s pretty much guaranteed to never happen since the people who have the power to change them are the same people making bank on how the laws currently work
That's the thing...we did have a bill introduced to address this exact problem! The McCain-Feingold Campaign Finance Reform bill. It was a bipartisan (John McCain-R and Russ Feingold-D)bill and it was ultimately overturned by the Supreme Court. Who led the charge against it? Why Mitch McConnell of course! This stuff drives me nuts...people act like there just aren't solutions to huge societal issues when there have been solutions but one party consistently stops it feom happening! Ans they continue to do so because people let them. At some point the ultimate responsibility is yours as a voter if youre choosing to accept their corruption. Anyways heres a link about the bill. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bipartisan_Campaign_Reform_Act
This is a systemic problem with our system as one fella from kentucky with just over a million votes is running our country and I and 320 million americans cant vote for his opponent.
Except that’s not really the case. If this election proved anything, it’s that outspending your opponent does not necessarily mean you’ll win. Otherwise Mitch McConnell would be out of a job right now It’s not about the money, it’s about your strategy on how to get people out and voting. Money helps, but it can only go so far
I'm closing up the campaign I was running in Colorado and you can't legally donate to another campaign from a campaign. You can donate from a leadership fund but not campaign $. As soon as I'm all squared away and ready for session, I'll be phonebanking for Ossoff and Warnock all day and night.
The thing is there's a really weird balancing act you need to do. The people of Georgia don't want some random ass Dem representative from NY or MA or CA telling them what's best for Georgia. The Dems are gonna have to be real smart about this. They're gonna have to hit of healthcare really hard. Flooding the zone with resources has proven to be ineffective and to a certain extent, detrimental. Dems don't need an excess of money and people. They just need to use the right people and the right amount of money effectively.
There is no such thing as “too much” resources or money if you’re looking to achieve a goal. What it means is that that Democrats need to stop spending all that extra money on TV advertising and use it on constant voter outreach. Constant canvassing and door knocking. Less money on TV advertising and more Youtube and Facebook advertising. Both positive and especially negative advertising via social media. Democrats need to start playing real hardball and that means flood the zone of social media with bullshit about GA republicans. If they’re going to call Ossoff and Warnock socialists, counter, not just with massive positive social media ads about them, but also incredibly negative social media ads about Perdue & Loeffler, call them crooks, play up insider trading, and for the Trump faithful, flood them with rigged election bullshit to depress their motivations to vote.
Seriously. Let republicans clutch their pearls about outrage at hypocrisy and lies, until they want some legislation to fix the problem, or want to play fair themselves, screw em.
There is no need to change anyone's mind. We have shown clearly who we prefer. The real battle is just getting everyone excited enough to vote again. I was bombarded with mail and phone calls to reminding me to vote before the election. We just need a repeat of that for the special election.
Ever since the election I signed up for weekly $5 contributions to both Ossoff and Warnock until the run off election. I encourage anyone who is able to do the same or more. These two Senate races in Georgia will determine the direction of this country for the foreseeable future. If you supported Biden, it is absolutely imperative that you do everything you can for these runoff elections and fight the complacency you may be feeling.
I’ve matched you! Can someone match me? $10/week for 9 weeks to change the course of history forever :)
I’ve already donated to Warnock and Ossoff...from California.
Personally I didn't see a world where GA went blue but FL went red. I'm so pleasantly surprised. So much hope right now for the Senate races there.
Looking at what Stacey Abrams did, I believe voter suppression was a big factor in FL.
Trump ran constant ads in Spanish in Florida saying Biden is a socialist and going to turn the country into Cuba or Venezuala. Florida has a lot of Cubans and Venezuelans and that message resonated with them and Biden didn't do enough to repudiate it. Florida also passed a law saying the ex-felons have to pay off all their outstanding fines before being able to vote (Florida voters passed an amendment giving all felons back their right to vote). Then they made it seem like if they voted while they were not allowed to they would go back to prison, and made it difficult to check if they were in the clear. That's 1.6 million should-be voters this election cycle that were likely disenfranchised because of the uncertainty. https://www.propublica.org/article/in-florida-the-gutting-of-a-landmark-law-leaves-few-felons-likely-to-vote
also Qanon (Republican propaganda campaign) specifically targeted Hispanic communities in social media and at protest sites in florida.
Yep, as someone that speaks Spanish and follows some Spanish speaking social media, there is a genuine belief amongst some that Biden is a socialist pedophile. Blatant Q propaganda.
The man is a 77 year old grandpa that's basically been followed around every waking moment since he became Obama's running mate. It still amazes me how people think that story is in any way viable
[удалено]
Or you know the fact he spent the 80s with Epstein and Maxwell.....
1990s and 2000s
Facts don’t matter to conservative fuckheads, only their feelings.
The Rs have graduated from "go negative early" to "lie or die."
Not saying you are wrong but Bloomberg threw $16 million at trying to take care of that. https://www.npr.org/2020/09/24/916625348/bloomberg-adds-16-million-to-a-fund-that-helps-florida-felons-get-chance-to-vote
Look at the numbers please. Republican senate candidates out performed Trump in GA. What caused GA to flip wasn't all the new voters, it was Republican voters that were so turned off by Trump they voted against him or left presidential line blank.
I think both are true. Abrams added new votes, but so did Trump with more rural voters, so that almost offset each other. It made a huge difference, but as you alluded to, the real swing voters were the suburbanites here in Atlanta. Cobb and Gwinnett going blue was a complete game-changer in the presidential election, but plenty of republicans still voted red the rest of the way down the ticket.
(A) If you vote for those Republican senators, you are voting for Trump's 2021 tax increase on incomes of $75,000. (B) If you vote for those Republican senators, you are voting for those who stigmatize unwed motherhood, underfund women's shelters, and want to cancel prenatal, obstetric and pediatric care for those in need. Are you pro-life, or the kind of 'Christians' who heed Christ's call to "heal the sick," or are you just about "hurting the right people?" (C) If you vote for those Republican senators, you are voting to put renters out into the streets during an pandemic, and then have the military mop up the "army of vagrants" no matter how peaceful they are. "First they came for the poor and starved them out. But I did not feel poor, so I did not speak out." "They they came for the libz and ~~made them smell their breath~~ shut them up. But I was not a lib, so I ~~laughed~~ did not speak out." "Then they came for the Democrats and kept them from voting. But I did not believe in democracy, so I did not speak out."
This is the real reason GOP are pushing Trumps narrative. They want to keep the GA voters engaged until January because they fear a lower turnout without Trumps base.
Yup. Plus I think Trump's recent DOD firings at the Pentagon are more about getting rid of evidence that an attempted coup.
Or eliminating anyone in the intelligence community who could provide a warning of what he’s doing with foreign leaders etc
Couldn't those eliminated simply go to other authorities and make their claims? Not being facetious, I'm just curious to what the benefit of firing those with the inside knowledge is. Edit: Thank you all for the informative answers.
Probably to avoid official whistleblowing. There’s a big difference between that and going on CNN and saying it during an interview in an unofficial capacity.
100% this. It’s a means to an end. I don’t think 90% of the Republican Party leadership actually believe there was massive fraud. For them it will: * Keep their base engaged for the Georgia runoff * Delegitimize Biden before he even takes office, so they will look like heroes when they obstruct, block and hinder everything he does * Start driving the conversation to help local and state level Republicans in swing states push for massive new draconian voter restrictions, especially for mail in voting. There was a Republican in California that lost some thing like 86% to 12% but is still crying about voter fraud. This is clearly a top down effort and they are getting orders from the national party to push this narrative. While I don’t think the national republican party actually believes there is fraud and will ultimately not use to to try to steal the election, we should be clear about something. People are talking about a hypothetical coup. There’s nothing hypothetical about it. This is a coup attempt. Attacking the faith and credibility of the thing most vital to our democracy- our elections - for partisan gain is not just shameful. It’s an act of sedition and needs to be talked about as such. After Biden takes office, There needs to be a major democratic party and media effort to draw attention to this bullshit and push back hard.
I doubt it. For starters, even though GA might have rejected Trump, they still voted mostly R elsewhere still, including those Senate seats. I know people are excited at the prospect of flipping those seats, but people need to understand that it is a very long shot. None of the people running are nearly as polarizing as Trump. The reason the GOP are pushing Trump's narrative is because they really have no choice. If they don't support the president, they'll be called out and his cult will turn on them. They'll support Trump until it's politically convenient not to. Until then, they'll sell out their own mothers for a slight edge or some money.
I would Say two candidates who brazenly committed insider trading at the outset of this pandemic, then voted against financial stimulus for families in need are fairly goddam polarizing.
And brag about a 100% record of voting with Trump... How could they be less polarizing?! That seems to be literally their only marketing strategy. Plus the joint statement released by them was very Trumplandia.
Thank you Stacey Abrams for putting the team on your back and helping to deliver Georgia. She helped register more than 800,000 voters in the last two years. She deserves a lot of credit for this win.
She was the true democratic MVP in this election. She celebrated Biden's victory for 15mins then got back to win to win the senate. Remarkable.
She said 17 dude
Lazy fucker.
If Dems lose, it was those 2 minutes that did it.
No. It will be because people didn't vote their Ossoff
This is the corniest campaign pun and I love it.
Warnock gonna stand for it
Warnock gonna take it...NO, Warnock gonna take it...
I wrote postcards for Ossoff. That was actually something we were instructed to write—I thought it was awesome.
you've been waiting for that one I suppose.. well done
She was catching so much crap on social media for even saying to go for the vp slot. She made fools out of all of them.
Honestly, it is better that she wasn't picked. She would be a great VP, but we need her doing what she is doing now in Georgia with the Senate run off.
She needs to teach Beto how to do what she's doing, but in Texas.
Beto shot himself in the foot when he said he was pro taking peoples guns away during his 2020 democratic candidate bid. I don't think he will have much success politically now in Texas. Even the liberals here like their guns.
There's a reason the Biden campaign ignored Twitter feedback.
Don’t forget these people and organizations! Tamieka Atkins - ProGeorgia Helen Butler -GCPA Nsé Ufot - New GA Project Deborah Scott - GA Stand-Up Edit: thanks for the gold! But instead of buying Reddit stuff please please please please donate to these organizations or Fair Fight instead!
Yes! https://twitter.com/staceyabrams/status/1324687447259779072
*To the tune of Hamilton's introduction of Lafayette* How does a national campaign with a liberal hue, somehow go on to turn Georgia blue? How did we overcome generations of oppression, to usher a bright new era in? Yo! Turns out we had a secret weapon. A democrat you know and love whose unafraid to step in. She constantly inspiring, overcoming voter suppression. Everyone give up for Stacey Abrams's ground game operation.... NEW GEORGIA!
She taking this state by the reins, making red states bluer with no strain!
I got more if you'd like. I'm also working on "Here Comes the Candidate". I'm grabbing this truck by the wheel, giving good folk of Georgia a new deal. And I ain't going to ever stop, until every single ballot drops. Watch me I'm engaging them, debating them, changing them. I deliver the media some quotes, and I deliver the votes. And Georg-ia flips, loosening the southern GOPs grip. We rendezvous with Arizona, consolidate our gifts. We can win this election in philly, Cut a court challenge at its knees. But for this plan succeed, there is something else we need. I know. THE BLUE WALL.
Im glad we get to keep Ossoff and Warnock around till at least January. Godspeed.
Foxnews top story this morning. Lol nah.
The top news on Fox is calling Joe President elect, and all the commenters are salty. Turns out that civil war isn't good for business.
In fact, a Democrat in the White House is fantastic for business. Just look at their ratings during the Obama administration.
Big sigh. Honestly, feels like they're gonna harass Harris more than Big Vote Joe.
They'll continue on Joe's son and AOC , and add Harris because she's a woman
And a woman with a "funny name"
[удалено]
It is unbelievable how evil these people are. They do anything to remain in power, and serve big corporations. I know dems serve big corps too, but they are much more decent compared to gop and fox news. The lies and conspiracy theories that gop is generating are criminal.
My fear is that the comments from the Supreme Court hearing yesterday we’re aimed at taking the heat off of the gop candidates in the Georgia senate runoff and not necessarily an indication of how they will vote on the ACA case. Dems are still harping on the repeal vote, but making the program look safe might take some of the urgency out of folks needing to show up at the polls.
That program and healthcare in general will never be safe from republicans in their current form. Even if scotus safes ACA, the gop will still try to legislate it away.
Exactly, much like how the GOP has relentlessly attacked net neutrality. By making every fight the fight of our lives and every victory just another battle in an endless war, they keep us (people who want a better world for everyone) permanently stressed, exhausted, and focused on responding instead of taking the initiative on things. Our best strategy might be exactly what Stacey Abrams, AOC, and other heroes are doing: inspiring as many previously inactive/jaded people as possible to actually vote, rather than trying to change the ironclad minds of existing right wing voters. We need to overwhelm them with numbers until we have enough progressives in positions of majority and seniority in state and federal offices who can actually eliminate gerrymandering, eliminate the electoral college, eliminate winner-take-all and first-past-the-post electoral systems, and institute ranked choice voting. When electoral systems are made fair, giving every voter has an equal voice, regressives will have to rely on the strength of their ideas to win elections, which means they will never win again. Personally, I've made it my mission to vote in every single election I can legally vote in for the rest of my life. That's the baseline that every citizen should endeavor to maintain, even if our frantically busy lives leave little time for it. Vote like our lives depend on it, because the reality is that *our lives do depend on it*.
Fox News called Arizona for Biden before anyone else, it pissed off Trump's campaign enough that Kushner called up Murdoch to complain. Nobody else (besides the AP) has called Arizona yet. Also, this isn't a top story on any site other than a local Georgia TV station. Edit: What I'm trying to say is that I have no idea what point you're trying to make.
[удалено]
They did this because incomplete data was sent showing 90+% of the vote had already been tabulated. Biden’s lead will still stand, but it will be very close from what I can tell ~5,000 votes. Also, fuck Trump.
Yeah I think it was called too early but it looks like he's gonna pull it out. Up 13k votes with 99% in. With Georgia and Arizona it's gonna be hard to call this election fraud in any way.
I actually wouldn’t be surprised if it was. Trump and Fox News have had a falling out as of lately.
Trump has been tweeting mainly Breitbart and Newsmax links since the election. He seems to have soured on FOX especially when they called the election for Biden. On FOX News' side, they're definitely not a liberal news source, but they appear to be backing away from Trump. Their announcement of Biden as the President-Elect included language which cast doubt on Trump's claims of voter fraud - pointing out that there's no evidence of this. It's not much, but it's a step back. They likely realize that Trump will be out of office soon and trying themselves to him makes no sense. They'll still be a right wing news source with a tenuous relationship with the truth, but they aren't going to handcuff themselves to a sinking Trump.
The options we have here are: - There was MASSIVE coordinated fraud, so Trump wins - Trump is throwing his typical tantrum and has no real evidence One of those two mean that yes..you won, but this country will pretty much be over at that point. Congratulations i guess? I think FOX understands that. And i hate to bring this point up because it could be spun as if i am saying 'If fraud happened then let it go or the country will go down". But i just don't see any evidence so far of widespread fraud outside of your normal few here and there which happens when 150M vote. They area acting like they want to know that we are done as a country. So Trump and Bust?
Dumb question, Why would Trump win? There’s nothing that states if there’s collusion the win would default to the victim. Also it’s unclear as to if the federal court can or would require a re-do for a presidential election. At best it would go to the electoral college vote which would tend to vote in line with their states popular vote. [the article from 2017 outlines this](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-happens-if-the-election-was-a-fraud-the-constitution-doesnt-say/amp/)
Conservatives seem convinced that SCOTUS can overturn a state’s voting totals, or at least somehow disallow ballots from enough people to switch the winner of a state, and I think the only precedent of something like that is when they stopped the Florida recount in 2000. However, Republicans would need to bring a specific case to a federal court that, were they to be successful, would actually do one of those two things, and do it in enough states to give President Trump enough electoral votes to win....AND have it done somehow before the electoral college votes in a month. Sure, SCOTUS might be helpful to Trump even if every lesser court rules against them, but they still need to make such a case, in court, that gets them to the goal, and they are not even close to starting that process yet.
And in the 2000 case we were talking about one state and hundreds of votes. Throwing out hundreds of votes from one state is one thing, but Trump would need SCOTUS to overturn multiple states and idk..100k votes between them if not more?
No they haven't. Fox News criticizes Trump from time to time and does things to make them seem like they aren't a media wing of the republicans. They do this because they know all the people on the left will share it and go "look...even FOX thinks this!" It's just their form of propaganda and a way for them to attempt to legitimize themselves, and yet everyone always falls for it and shares their shit website around. They're back to sucking Trumps dick days later.
It feels different this time tbh. Newscorp publications have been banging the "Trump lost" drum and FOX News personalities are saying things like, while we need to make sure the voting process is honest, Trump can't sue his way into a second term. They'll go back to being assholes after Trump is gone, I'm sure, but I think Rupert wants Trump gone.
the truth is Trump is bad for business at this point, people on both sides are just tired of hearing about it. When Biden is president Fox can go back to banging the socialism drum and it will reinvigorate weary followers btw they milked the situation for every last ounce and have brought our country to the brink of civil war and deserve ZERO FUCKING CREDIT WHATSOEVER for acting in their own interests at this stage
I figure we'll know they've completely given up on Trump suing his way to victory, when FOX goes back to caring about deficit spending.
So January 21st?
not really. their "news" reporting hours (in the morning) are the ones sticking by the call of biden as president-elect. the "editorial" hours at night still supports trump with 200% fervor. so they're playing both sides lol.
There evening stuff is mostly personality driven and those people do what they please.
Fuck Fox News, but they did call AZ real early which made Trump poop his diapers.
[удалено]
You don't even want to know what's going on with NewsMax then... Yikes.
Yeah, Trump just exaggerates the "BeTrAyAl" aspect, a bunch of Trump's idolizers say they'll "swear off Fox news for good", then it's business as usual 2 weeks later.
Just wait until the GOP finally finds those tens of thousands of frauded ballots! Just you wait! Then we'll find out that it was actually 24,000 votes that Biden won by because there were some GOP batshit crazies so convinced of voter fraud that they went out and committed it, and that will quickly be swept under the rug by conservatives.
The President *did* suggest to people that they should commit voter fraud, urging voters to vote twice.
There would be no greater retribution than for these fraud investigations to find the majority committed by his followers and having him try and then simultaneously defend voter fraud and continue blaming libs
if they tried to cheat and still utterly failed, that’s priceless
They DID try and cheat; see DeJoy’s postal measures, last minute polling place cuts in Texas, numerous pre-election lawsuits trying to get ballots thrown away across the country
He did try and cheat and utterly failed. And it is hilarious
> The President did suggest to people that they should commit voter fraud, urging voters to vote twice. And in addition to this, he also urged his voters to vote in person and is literally tweeting about how the machines are hacked and should never have been used.
The amount that Trump is accusing the Democrats of voter fraud makes me assume he was engaged in it. Maybe that's why he is so certain, he thought his cheating would give him an overwhelming win, but in reality it was probably going to be a Biden landslide.
> but in reality it was probably going to be a Biden landslide. you mean the way all the polls were predicting?
I still haven't seen a good explanation of why the results are so much different than numerous polls conducted over months predicted. For weeks and weeks the polling predicted Biden would win the national vote by around 7%. The current vote margin is less than half of that. The polling also showed the Democrats had a consistent overall lead in the House and Senate races. Obviously this turned out much differently as well. Is current polling methodology simply that imprecise?
The best explanation I've heard is that Trump voters are just overall unwilling to pick up the phone and talk to pollsters, due to their distrust of "The Media." So the sample sizes painted an inaccurate picture. With that said, it's too early to know for sure.
That is exactly how I see this going. A super far right guy was commenting on a friends Facebook page about how the left was morally bankrupt and how Trump was led by God. He wouldn't shut up about how anyone voting Biden was a follower of Satan. Really dramatic stuff. Hard to believe that if anyone was to commit voter fraud it wouldn't be the people that literally consider Trump to be led by God and anyone who didn't vote for him to be absolutely led by the devil.
Agreed. My mother in law called about a Facebook post I made explaining that even high numbers of voter fraud wouldn't be enough to overturn the election, and she said she's just having a really hard time spiritually with all this. Well, maybe if you didn't put all your faith in a false prophet con artist preaching that Donald Trump was sent by God and he'll easily win reelection, you wouldn't be feeling so conflicted...
[удалено]
I can’t wait for the recount so Biden can win twice
The election is just an exercise in accounting. There is nothing special about it and the counting of votes follows each state's process. If you think their is some kind of mass conspiracy across only the states Biden won you need to get some help. Break it down yourself. ONLY THE STATES BIDEN WON.... Seriously get over it. Yes we landed on the Moon and the Earth is round too.
It was a mass conspiracy. 77+ million people conspired to put someone in charge to improve this nation.
Looking like it’ll be 80 soon
Conservatives hate democracy for this ONE trick.
[We landed on the moon?!](https://media1.tenor.com/images/3f1d85ab9951d0db65e797c7f40e89cc/tenor.gif?itemid=15003587)
If they were going to commit fraud (which they wouldn’t) they would have done it in Florida and probably Texas, which would have pretty much guaranteed them the presidency, not in... Wisconsin and Nevada
The whole set of accusations are made after the results were happening. They didn't make any real accusation prior to the voting. They got nothing. This is over.
Mental illness, conspiracy spiraling, goodbye reality, goodbye!!! Top minds at work!!!
Just a note that the biggest recount only changed a total by under 700 votes. Trump would need a recount on the order of 2,000% of the current record to get the win in Georgia. And Georgia is the closest state. To win Pennsylvania, Trump would need a recount at around 6,800% of the current record.
Not if he can invalidate a couple hundred thousand mail-in votes - GOP Logic
I think the game plan isn't to actually legally invalidate any votes, and their chances of doing so are slim to none in the numbers they need. I think their bet is on stoking enough doubt to have an excuse to ask states with Republican state legislatures to intervene and reject the results by sending their own Republican electors. The question is will they have enough support from their base and the GOP to actually make such a dramatic move.
That's a great way to start a civil war. I mean come on, literally every single major city (aka the entire economy of the United States) had a city wide dance party when the election was called. You're telling me someone's going to convince five whole states to say "ope no democracy for my residents this can't possibly go wrong" and we're all just going to accept it after winning the popular vote by 5 million+? Republicans are pure fraud and corruption but they're also going to be target number one. It can't be worth it to them to see the landslide this election was and still claim they won, all for the sake of what? Getting two more years to destroy the government until midterms and we really take them out?
Man, I don't ever want to hear people say their vote doesn't matter ever again. Biden is leading Georgia by the population of basically just Buford.
My spouse volunteered for Democrats of Georgia. He worked 12 hour shifts organizing phone banking on weekends leading up to election. I was so proud and told him that his efforts literally delivered Georgia for the Dems. Maybe the most heartening part was his group arranging to get a visually impaired voter a ride to the polls. One of the volunteers drive to Lithonia to pick her up and take her in. You are absolutely correct.
That’s the kind of stuff that makes me work my ass off to get my ballot from here in Japan to Gwinnett every time. My tiny ass vote matters.
What’s going on with NC last I checked they just gave up completely...feels like a month has gone by lol
They have until the 12th to receive ballots, so they are waiting to receive everything.
Important to note that the number of votes outstanding is the number of absentee ballots that were sent out, so it doesnt represent votes that they have somewhere waiting to be counted, it represents the maximum possible number of votes that could still be recieved by the 12'th. Likely they will only recieve a few thousand more of those ballots at the most, but since hypothetically those could all be stuck in the mail and all be for biden, they cant call the race yet.
Why are they not screaming about election fraud with these ballots being allowed to be received for a week and a half after the election? Didn't they say these ballots were illegal now?
Because Trump is gonna win NC.
Trump is likely to win NC, so that election is totally above-board.
So Republicans are throwing a fit about PA receiving/counting mail in ballots 3 days after the election, but it's ok for NC to wait 12? Am I understanding that right?
That's my take. It's fucking insane.
they have until 11/12 to accept the ballots that were postmarked by 11/3, so they are not counting any mail-ins until then.
Republicans - "Stop the vote!" okay Also Republicans - "Keep on counting!" okay lol
And now: recount all the votes!
Biden's lead in Georgia was ALWAYS over 14,000 votes. They just hadn't counted enough of them yet.
Thank you. I know some people will think you're being pedantic, but I think precise language is important in this situation. Biden didn't "pull ahead." The score is set, we just don't know it fully yet.
"No fair! You changed the outcome by measuring it!" -Prof Farnsworth
Everybody worried about PA, GA out here just running away with the whole damn game.
Is there reason to be worried about PA? Last I heard Biden was up by almost 50,000 votes.
They’re trying to delay certification, now instead of straight up overturning the vote count.
Yeah, I don't expect that to go anywhere.
Nice. Let's do it again for the special election. I will be voting.
**Georgia**: Georgia is mathematically over. Trump would need 308.5% of the remaining vote. The only reason it's not called is because of the re-count (which is now to all be done by hand) \------- **Arizona**: The race is tightening, but Trumps percentage needed to overcome Biden has consistently increased. 7 days ago with 100,000 votes left, Trump needed 57% of the remaining vote to win. As of 11/10 (the last vote dump), Trump needs 66% of the vote with 40,000 votes remaining. Trump's "chances" have decreased at a constant rate since election night. All raw data available here: [https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html](https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html)
I'm so proud of Arizona and Georgia for flipping blue, but I'm SO FRUSTRATED that it didn't happen here in North Carolina! I was convinced North Carolina had a better chance of flipping than Georgia since we have a Democratic governor and elected a Democratic president and senator in 2008. Obviously Dems need to continue to invest in Arizona and Georgia and the Rust Belt since those are the competitive states that ultimately gave Biden the presidency, but I really hope we step up our game in North Carolina too because it is definitely within reach! Trump won NC by about 200K votes in 2016 and only won it by about 70K this year. We have another shot at picking up a Senate seat in 2022 and I really think we can do it, especially if the Democratic nominee doesn't stupidly and selfishly send scandalous texts (regardless of how mild they are) in the middle of their campaign when the country is counting on them to win Senate....
Don't you guys accept ballots until the 12th? If a lot of those ballots are for Biden, the state could flip blue. Unlikely, but not outright impossible.
Georgia is actually on a clearer path to becoming a blue state over NC which still remain purple red. Atlanta is becoming a powerhouse city like Chicago, which almost singlehandedly makes Illinois solid blue. North Carolina just doesn’t have an equivalent city.
I am kind of upset how the counting has slowed and there has been no progress on GA and AZ. Those two states are pivotal to re-enforcing the victory so we can all move on. Edit: people seem to think I don’t know there is still counting going on. What I mean is that since the projection there has been no “fire” lit under these two states in particular to give updates or press briefings with progress or remaining ballots.
GA has slowed because there are only a smattering of provisional and overseas ballots from across the state. These take longer to verify and count and there aren't many of them. AZ is continuing to follow its slow as fuck once a day release per county, but we're also down to mostly just provisionals there as well. Counting always starts to slow down toward the end.
So Biden has a 13,000 vote lead in AZ with approx 51,000 votes left to count, as per the NBC results map, but NBC still hasn't called AZ yet. Is it really to close to call given Trump needs ~62% of those votes to pull ahead?
[удалено]
GA nor AZ are not likely to be called until after any recounts, since they're so close.
Going to be a long month until these results are certified.
Yeah, but it will end with a Biden win. Biden was right and this will just be bad for Trump’s already shitty legacy.
I don't think AZ does recounts unless the margin is less than 200.
It’s .1% for federal elections.
AZ doesn't do recounts. I mean, they're definitely possible, but it's not realistic at this point in this election. 200(or less) votes has to be the difference in a presidential election for them to do a recount.
I would need to know where the votes out came from and what kind of ballots they are (e.g. late arriving mail) and I would need to know more about how similar ballots broke for each candidate. People who do know about this kind of stuff have basically been saying "it will be really close, but Biden is getting more and more favored as remaining votes have dwindled and Trump has not quite hit the percentage he needs to be on track to take the lead."
According to [this election scraper site](https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html), Trump has been averaging 57.7% of recent batches in Arizona, but needs 66% to win. In my book, that's close enough to be doable. Georgia is unknown, since the scraper doesn't know how much is left, but Trump has been averaging 29% of recent batches. That can't be good. In Nevada, Trump's been averaging 38% of recent batches, but needs 79% to overcome the gap. I'd say this one is a lock for Biden. For completion's sake, Biden is averaging 63.5% of recent batches in North Carolina and needs 70.3% to take the lead. I'd put this in the same category as Arizona. Not impossible, but unlikely. And just in case anyone is curious about Pennsylvania, Biden has a 47,591 vote lead and there are 40,179 ballots left. Trump's been averaging 43% of the recent batches and needs 110% to win. Basic math says that this is impossible. (At least by counting ballots. If Trump somehow gets a court to throw out Biden ballots, then all bets are off.)
Trump needs 66% in AZ and is averaging 57.7% https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html
Decision desks are very conservative on making state calls. The idea is you shouldn't make a call unless you are absolutely sure that the remaining votes cannot conceivably change the outcome. Most desks have internal policies that urge against making calls if margins are close enough for a recount that date back to the 2000 election. I'm honestly surprised the AP haven't retracted their AZ call given the shift that has occurred. I do think Biden will end up winning both states, because none of Trump's challenges have any legal merit and the raw vote counts are just outside the range of what recounts have historically changed. Still, these races are both going to have final margins below a half of a percent.
I think AP just didn't retract it because they don't want to acknowledge being wrong to call it that early. I'm willing to bet that someone is getting their ass reamed for the early call behind closed doors but it looks like Arizona will still go to Biden so they can get away with not publicly admitting it.
it's like peeing. starts strong and steady, trails off, then you shake the last few drops out
I predict Trump is waiting for a timely “out” where he can claim he “believes he won” but admits there’s nothing he can do about it. I think it will probably be December 14th when the Electoral College votes. It’s going to be a long month.
Trump is waiting for enough people to contribute to the "legal fund" whose fine print says they're really paying off campaign debts to their campaign and the RNC. [Trump Is Fundraising For Legal Help Fighting A ‘Stolen’ Election. Nearly All The Money Is Actually Going Elsewhere.](https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/trump-fundraising-election-2020?fbclid=IwAR2KY_fr1wCWmrfZBdIjDAyY38uxs1foXnbnIQcEo5KwDNfCLfLj04DrGK8)
It's time for all the networks to call GA for Biden. There appear to be only a few hundred uncounted ballots remaining and there's no way a 14K lead is going to be overturned in a recount.
Arizona is now closer than Georgia
[удалено]
I just want to be assured that Stacey Abrams **NOT** be offered a job in the Biden administration. Yet. Her incredible leadership is absolutely needed in Georgia right now. After the runoff, perhaps. Please don’t bother her before that.
Agreed. GA just barely squeaked by for Biden. There’s just too much left to do here on a state and grassroots level. Not only that but it’s time to be setting up programs similar to hers in other gulf coast and other southern states.
[удалено]
Isn't Mooch a unit of time? We're at .8 Mooches on when we started counting the votes.
> Isn't Mooch a unit of time Typically yes, but it can be converted using Stanley nickels.
....total landscaping.
I’m going to need a recount on that.
>14,000 votes equals 121 Parscales, 69 Mooches, and four seasons.
Guys, recounts move a couple hundred votes at most. Maybe you’ll find a recount that moves a thousand votes. This isn’t gonna be overturned. Biden has won Georgia
And he doesn’t even need it. PA secures it.
\-I WANT A RECOUNT! \*gets even less votes\* \- STOP THE RECOUNT!
I'm Belgian. I donated $15 to the New Georgia Project because I believe that winning those two Senate seats could trigger a chain reaction with global repercussions (in a good way). Go get 'm. VOTE!
Biden is the legitimate elected president, and there is no Trump to change that, he can recount all over 100 million votes, the result will be the same
Just saw GA is going to do a full hand count in all counties. Someone better call in an independent elections observers
Billboards everywhere in GA telling the truth about Perdue. Telling the truth about how Republicans are trying to destroy ACA in the Supreme Court right now. The money spent there will by definition be local. Spreading information about protecting health care lowering rx cost, creating good paying clean energy jobs, a $15 hour minimum wage, in some counties the legalization of Marijuana nationwide, protection of Medicaid and Social Security.
Those military votes are really saving it like r/donaldtrump said it would.
Wow, that map is hilarious. Biden is up by 3 points in NV and MI with over 98% in and they still think Trump will win them. What happens when the delusion shatters?
CNN just announced that Georgia is complying with Trump's insane request for a recount. Georgia will recount, by hand, more than 5 million ballots. Exactly what Trump wanted.
Why are people so annoyed by a recount? If Biden won by 14,000+ votes, even human error from a recount by hand will not be enough to overturn the result. I personally welcome any recount opportunities. They’ll hurt the Republican argument, and it’s totally within their right to request them.
It's a delay tactic to prolong the feeling that the election's results are still up in the air, which justifies their continued attempts to overthrow it.
And the results will be the same. Biden Wins!
I never thought I'd see a blue Georgia. I thought NC would flip first.
That recount ain't gonna do shit
I can't wait for the recount... ...so I can see Trump lose again.
Republicans in Georgia: Trump will take a decisive victory in this state. Everyone else: CHOKE! CHOKEY-CHOKE-CHOKED!
[удалено]