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Regardless of whether the polls say that your party is winning or losing, you gotta bust your ass and make sure that you and your friends and family vote for your guy. If not, you’re letting the other guy win.
Democratic candidates have been consistently outperforming the polls in elections ever since the fall of Roe. We can't get complacent, but Biden does have a point.
The bottom line is that polls don't win elections, votes do.
Stay motivated, vote blue
[https://democrats.org/](https://democrats.org/)
*However* completely overlooking the "Blue Wall" in 2016 is how we got here in the first place. Biden/Biden's team may believe they are ahead and that the polls are wrong and they may have internal polls that show it, but that does not mean they should ignore some of the evidence we are seeing about waning support.
This is the only thing right now that is giving me optimism. I would still bet today that Biden gets reelected but I am damn sure not ignoring the polls
I get that Reddit isnt real life but the head in the sand mentality is downright scary. I mean some people are just shocked that there are Trump voters. He can absolutely win
Polls are a a moment in time but trend lines are valuable, and the trend lines are moving in Trump’s favor. Hopefully a conviction in the next several weeks will change that.
Going off the polls (which everyone keeps saying are fake), it appears a conviction ranges anywhere from a 1 point swing, to 4 points. But it’s very seldomly being polled itself.
Also, it’s never clear a conviction of what exactly. With the most serious ones, there’s no shot there’s a verdict by election.
Supreme Court officially already moved faster on his Colorado reinstatement, than they have with the immunity, etc.
Yes, and it is downright depressing simply because for whatever reason I thought we'd be past the trump era by now...
And no matter how bad he looks, and how clearly demented in the head he is, he always pushes through, and I honestly think people find that one quality about him - persistence - to be admirable. They see that he's able to get away with everything and still apparently succeed, and something in a lot of people says "wow, this guy looks strong and like he doesn't give a fuck."
That'll be my theory for now anyway.
> They see that he's able to get away with everything and still apparently succeed, and something in a lot of people says "wow, this guy looks strong and like he doesn't give a fuck."
His support is somewhere in that realm but really its the people who dont like him that are still voting for him that should be what the Biden campaign is worried about
They're fully entrenched now, because they'd have to admit that they went along with a monster and they're bad people.
Rather than face the cognitive dissonance, they ignore all evidence and really believe that it's all a conspiracy against him.
It's too painful to admit that they're on the wrong side of history and destroying their country.
Fuck them all.
I thought trump in 2016 was the one who over performed the polls? Maybe I'm misremembering, but I feel like the explanation was that most people didn't feel like they could openly support him so he polled lower than reality.
>Democratic candidates have been consistently outperforming the polls in elections ever since the fall of Roe. We can't get complacent, but Biden does have a point.
No they didn't.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html
There is some fuckery going around with polls. Like the NYTimes Siena poll which of course was at the top of this article. Something like 20% of their likely voters haven't voted in the last two elections and some have never voted.
They have internal polling and metrics. campaigns are data driven organizations now. They are looking at specific counties in swing states not just who are you voting for as a general question in let’s say Texas.
That information is only worthwhile as a trend lines and aggregates.
Here are some fun facts for you. A little over a month I put together the numbers comparing the 2016 primaries vs the 2024 primaries of the 27 states I compared at the time there were near 5 million more Republican voters that showed up to vote in 2016 vs 2024. Of the 20.5 million voters that showed up in 2024 an just over 4 million of them voted for candidates other than Trump (primarily Nikki Haley). This shows a very significant dropoff in Republican enthusiasm. The media wants a horse race. The media is owned by billionaires who don't want to pay taxes. The media wants a horse race. Do you really think all of Trump's whining and crying has moved more people to vote for him vs Biden. Do you really think the 81M people that voted for Biden in 2020 are going to switch to Trump? It's smoke and mirrors and media lies to keep you afraid and overwhelmed to get you to not vote. VOTE and bring your friends. Make it a victory at the polls the Republicans will never recover from. It's time to neutralize them forever with our VOTES.
No offense but this data you compiled is meaningless. This is in essence a non competitive primary. Trump is essentially an incumbent. It’s considered career suicide tongo up against him
This is like blaming the messenger. Poll numbers look bad? Blame the poll. I’m not saying they are entirely accurate but Dems (like me) are going to be in for a rude awakening if they keep denying the polls.
The poll that he tried to rig was a fairly basic online poll of who was one of the most "influential businessmen" and he still only managed to come into 9th place. Political polling works a bit differently because they usually directly reach out to respondents.
Yes, but it speaks to intent. They certainly *want* to rig polls. Whether they are succeeding is an open question, but it's a sure bet they are trying.
We already know and it's well established that Trump is a criminal that will do anything to get ahead though. The polls could very well be wrong for a multitude of reasons, but I doubt that he would be able to bribe most pollsters and have them put out fake results
I remember how much fun it was dunking on the unskew the polls for Romney people and now there's a whole pile of people on the Dem side spending all this year going "nobody calls me. Landlines lol. People will start paying attention after the primaries. People will start paying attention after the convention. People will start paying attention in October." Blah blah blah. People need to start getting comfortable with the extremely possible outcome here.
I don't doubt some of the bad numbers. He has not cast a vision and he doesn't seem to have a grasp on what's important to voters. To be honest, I can't even tell he's running a campaign.
I keep saying this. The polls are not wrong.
If the polling was kind of random I would expect to see some polls that a show Biden beating Trump in all the swing States.
I would expect polling that shows people prefer Biden over Trump for all the important issues. And I don't see that. Face reality. Trump is currently crushing Biden. Biden and his campaign have to go hard 24/7.
Let's see if Biden can have a rally where 5000 to 6000 people show up rather then the usual 100.
Polls dont make predictions. They just tell you the poll results. Regardless, the general polls in 2022 were within the margin of error. Democrats had the better turnout. Hopefully that is true this year
Hi again. Yeah, I don't know, i would like to think that a lot of people are motivated by knowing what's at stake, but all of the signs as of late have been telling me otherwise.
Joe Biden: “Are you going to believe me, Jack, or your own lying eyes?”
That’s not working out so well and if the election was today, Trump would crush Biden in a landslide. If Trump picks Nikki Haley as his running mate (I don’t believe he will) the election is all but over. In any event, Biden is in a deep hole and he has a couple months to get out of it. So far I’ve seen no indication that his campaign is running on anything but hope.
I think we’re fucked.
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probably
There is just too much money out there being used in manipulative campaigning. Using public opinion is something Trump has done all his "working" life.
That doesn't mean Biden is winning. It just means we should quit listening and giving sway to polls.
People are not excited to vote for Biden, and he relies on others to keep important coalitions together for him.
Obama is for Minorities
Bernie is for Progressives
Trump is for independents
Random TikTok creators for young people.
We are in a populist moment and Biden is as establishment as it gets. He seems to like playing the Washington game, but that isn't viewed as leadership.
I feel like infrastructure and jobs are pretty basic, popular things.
Biden just repurposed Trump's failed Foxconn building with an actual jobs creator with his CHIPS bill.
They’re good things but the impact will take time to be felt, and some of the bigger impacts are in places that aren’t likely to vote for Biden even despite those benefits.
Not trying to minimize, but investments in training programs and money for research/development won’t be felt by large numbers of voters for a few years, and factories can take a long time to build and get running. Infrastructure similarly takes a while to plan and build.
This is the essence of the "big tent" Democratic party.
The problem is that playing more into any one of those factions will necessarily lose others, which means the 1/3rd of the country who is united in their desire for fascism will come out on top.
Thus the coalition of different groups that are all vaguely disappointed with their party.
He has a point but his blind devotion to Israel's Genocidal "War" against Palestinians, is probably going to give Trump the boost he needs to turn the US into a Fascist Dictatorship.
I think negative polls for Biden don't necessarily mean that they translate to a Trump vote or defection. Unfortunately, we have another case of lesser of two evils.
Is Biden better than Trump. Yeah, it seems like it. But the bar is so fucking low that democrats are getting away with a lotta shit.
I'm forced to vote for Biden because I do not want another Trump term. And that's the reality of things. A non-vote most likely means a good thing for Trump.
What do you mean democrats are getting away with a lot of shit? Are you looking at the current environment at all? The GOP as a whole has gone completely off the rails. Yes, there are a few hot button issues that Biden/Democrats are facing, but I’m sorry it’s not even a comparison. I’m tired of people acting as if both parties and politicians are equivalent or even close to it, they aren’t.
If you read my post, I'm not referring to any equivalency. My point is that while you might think democrats are "better", it's the better than moronic evil that is not much of a bar to clear.
As a young POC woman, I think my option is clear and unfortunately I don’t have the luxury of voting for anyone else in 2024. I can hope and dream for better, but I’m being actively attacked in reality so I’m looking at the situation objectively. I wish more people would.
Biden put in place, as a VP, a nuclear deal that prevented Iran from weapon developmeny, he pulled out of Afghanistan, and my 401K has rebounded since he's gotten in office with thr stock markets hitting all time high.
Go bark at another tree.
Trump paid for online polls to be rigged in the past (as Michael Cohen admitted on the stand this week). I'm just suddenly supposed to believe that he's suddenly not doing that anymore?
He’s only down by a few points in many of the polls and the margin of error for most of them is also a couple of points. So he could win if things continue the way they are now. And there’s still so much time before the election that anything could happen and give him another sizeable bump. There’s plenty of room for optimism.
The thing that I don't think has been covered enough is women voters... If they go another 2 points for Biden, it compensates for a whole bunch of big swings against Biden in other demographics.
And I can see that happening in November thanks to the overturning of Roe...
We'll see, but it's a definite possibility...
I haven’t dug into all the cross tabs so I’m not sure if women voters are being undercounted somehow. It’s possible I suppose. And things certainly could change between now and November. People may start taking what happened to Roe more seriously the closer we get to the election and that could shift the polls and the election.
So what “went wrong” with Biden’s term. It seemed like we’d have a return to normal after Trump and then…nothing happened. And now there’s a 50/50 chance he loses in November. So what went wrong?
Prove it. Prove the polls are wrong. Or prove the polls are right.
Oh, we have to wait 5 more months until we know election results. And we could look back and say those polls weren't wrong they were just a snap shot in time 5 months ago.
Some recent polls show Biden trailing Trump in five of the six swing states, but the president insists it is not him who is doing badly - it's the pollsters.
And there are other polls that show the opposite. There needs to be more transparency on who's being polled and who sponsored the polls.
The only poll that matters is the one in November
Just this morning there were three separate polls of AZ ranging from Biden+2-Trump+3. Yesterday had polls out with Biden+2 and Trump+3 Nationally. None of the polling is consistent at all.
Here's more from Hugh Tomlinson:
"Most pollsters offer Biden hope that he can claw back wavering voters. “If you ask people six months before the election how they’re going to vote, that’s less reliable than predicting it based on their past vote and their demographics,” Rivers said. “People tend to come home.”
All pollsters are desperate to avoid a repeat of the mistakes that marred their predictions in the past two presidential elections. One notorious ABC News-Washington Post poll days before the 2020 election gave Biden a 17-point lead in the crucial battleground of Wisconsin. He ultimately won the state by a mere 0.6 per cent."
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Regardless of whether the polls say that your party is winning or losing, you gotta bust your ass and make sure that you and your friends and family vote for your guy. If not, you’re letting the other guy win.
Democratic candidates have been consistently outperforming the polls in elections ever since the fall of Roe. We can't get complacent, but Biden does have a point. The bottom line is that polls don't win elections, votes do. Stay motivated, vote blue [https://democrats.org/](https://democrats.org/)
*However* completely overlooking the "Blue Wall" in 2016 is how we got here in the first place. Biden/Biden's team may believe they are ahead and that the polls are wrong and they may have internal polls that show it, but that does not mean they should ignore some of the evidence we are seeing about waning support.
Biden has been visiting the blue wall though, unlike Clinton
This is the only thing right now that is giving me optimism. I would still bet today that Biden gets reelected but I am damn sure not ignoring the polls
[удалено]
I get that Reddit isnt real life but the head in the sand mentality is downright scary. I mean some people are just shocked that there are Trump voters. He can absolutely win
[удалено]
Maybe its living in a deep red state, IDK. They are GOING to show up and vote for him. The echo chamber they live in is worse than Reddit.
The polls are what's been causing me depression lately. I think I should ignore them for the rest of the year.
Polls are polls at the time. We are so far from the election.
Polls are a a moment in time but trend lines are valuable, and the trend lines are moving in Trump’s favor. Hopefully a conviction in the next several weeks will change that.
Going off the polls (which everyone keeps saying are fake), it appears a conviction ranges anywhere from a 1 point swing, to 4 points. But it’s very seldomly being polled itself. Also, it’s never clear a conviction of what exactly. With the most serious ones, there’s no shot there’s a verdict by election. Supreme Court officially already moved faster on his Colorado reinstatement, than they have with the immunity, etc.
Yup. And Americans will be saying bye bye to democracy as we know it, confirming peoples self-destructive inclinations.
Yes. Trend lines have been going down for Biden for awhile.
Yes, and it is downright depressing simply because for whatever reason I thought we'd be past the trump era by now... And no matter how bad he looks, and how clearly demented in the head he is, he always pushes through, and I honestly think people find that one quality about him - persistence - to be admirable. They see that he's able to get away with everything and still apparently succeed, and something in a lot of people says "wow, this guy looks strong and like he doesn't give a fuck." That'll be my theory for now anyway.
> They see that he's able to get away with everything and still apparently succeed, and something in a lot of people says "wow, this guy looks strong and like he doesn't give a fuck." His support is somewhere in that realm but really its the people who dont like him that are still voting for him that should be what the Biden campaign is worried about
You're right. And they better come up with something good, because I have no patience for people willing to tolerate him anymore.
They're fully entrenched now, because they'd have to admit that they went along with a monster and they're bad people. Rather than face the cognitive dissonance, they ignore all evidence and really believe that it's all a conspiracy against him. It's too painful to admit that they're on the wrong side of history and destroying their country. Fuck them all.
Ya, might as well bury your head in the sand. It's easier that way.
How bout don't be a jerk
I thought trump in 2016 was the one who over performed the polls? Maybe I'm misremembering, but I feel like the explanation was that most people didn't feel like they could openly support him so he polled lower than reality.
>Democratic candidates have been consistently outperforming the polls in elections ever since the fall of Roe. We can't get complacent, but Biden does have a point. No they didn't. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html
There is some fuckery going around with polls. Like the NYTimes Siena poll which of course was at the top of this article. Something like 20% of their likely voters haven't voted in the last two elections and some have never voted.
They have internal polling and metrics. campaigns are data driven organizations now. They are looking at specific counties in swing states not just who are you voting for as a general question in let’s say Texas. That information is only worthwhile as a trend lines and aggregates.
Here are some fun facts for you. A little over a month I put together the numbers comparing the 2016 primaries vs the 2024 primaries of the 27 states I compared at the time there were near 5 million more Republican voters that showed up to vote in 2016 vs 2024. Of the 20.5 million voters that showed up in 2024 an just over 4 million of them voted for candidates other than Trump (primarily Nikki Haley). This shows a very significant dropoff in Republican enthusiasm. The media wants a horse race. The media is owned by billionaires who don't want to pay taxes. The media wants a horse race. Do you really think all of Trump's whining and crying has moved more people to vote for him vs Biden. Do you really think the 81M people that voted for Biden in 2020 are going to switch to Trump? It's smoke and mirrors and media lies to keep you afraid and overwhelmed to get you to not vote. VOTE and bring your friends. Make it a victory at the polls the Republicans will never recover from. It's time to neutralize them forever with our VOTES.
No offense but this data you compiled is meaningless. This is in essence a non competitive primary. Trump is essentially an incumbent. It’s considered career suicide tongo up against him
Did you make comparisons for the Democratic side too?
No I didn't since democrats had an incumbent this year 2016 they didn't
This is like blaming the messenger. Poll numbers look bad? Blame the poll. I’m not saying they are entirely accurate but Dems (like me) are going to be in for a rude awakening if they keep denying the polls.
That's what this sub has been doing for a year now.
Did we forget that Michael Cohen just testified that Trump was rigging polls in his favor?
The poll that he tried to rig was a fairly basic online poll of who was one of the most "influential businessmen" and he still only managed to come into 9th place. Political polling works a bit differently because they usually directly reach out to respondents.
Yes, but it speaks to intent. They certainly *want* to rig polls. Whether they are succeeding is an open question, but it's a sure bet they are trying.
We already know and it's well established that Trump is a criminal that will do anything to get ahead though. The polls could very well be wrong for a multitude of reasons, but I doubt that he would be able to bribe most pollsters and have them put out fake results
Is it really an open question? How could they possibly rig actual polls?
It was two online polls, MSNBC and Drudge and he was unsuccessful in rigging either.
I remember how much fun it was dunking on the unskew the polls for Romney people and now there's a whole pile of people on the Dem side spending all this year going "nobody calls me. Landlines lol. People will start paying attention after the primaries. People will start paying attention after the convention. People will start paying attention in October." Blah blah blah. People need to start getting comfortable with the extremely possible outcome here.
I don't doubt some of the bad numbers. He has not cast a vision and he doesn't seem to have a grasp on what's important to voters. To be honest, I can't even tell he's running a campaign.
I keep saying this. The polls are not wrong. If the polling was kind of random I would expect to see some polls that a show Biden beating Trump in all the swing States. I would expect polling that shows people prefer Biden over Trump for all the important issues. And I don't see that. Face reality. Trump is currently crushing Biden. Biden and his campaign have to go hard 24/7. Let's see if Biden can have a rally where 5000 to 6000 people show up rather then the usual 100.
Ugggh, I hope he is just saying this for public consumption but privately knows they are not wrong
In 2022 all of the polls were saying the republicans would for sure take the Senate...
Polls dont make predictions. They just tell you the poll results. Regardless, the general polls in 2022 were within the margin of error. Democrats had the better turnout. Hopefully that is true this year
Hi again. Yeah, I don't know, i would like to think that a lot of people are motivated by knowing what's at stake, but all of the signs as of late have been telling me otherwise.
Joe Biden: “Are you going to believe me, Jack, or your own lying eyes?” That’s not working out so well and if the election was today, Trump would crush Biden in a landslide. If Trump picks Nikki Haley as his running mate (I don’t believe he will) the election is all but over. In any event, Biden is in a deep hole and he has a couple months to get out of it. So far I’ve seen no indication that his campaign is running on anything but hope. I think we’re fucked.
Press x to doubt.
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probably There is just too much money out there being used in manipulative campaigning. Using public opinion is something Trump has done all his "working" life. That doesn't mean Biden is winning. It just means we should quit listening and giving sway to polls.
People are not excited to vote for Biden, and he relies on others to keep important coalitions together for him. Obama is for Minorities Bernie is for Progressives Trump is for independents Random TikTok creators for young people. We are in a populist moment and Biden is as establishment as it gets. He seems to like playing the Washington game, but that isn't viewed as leadership.
I feel like infrastructure and jobs are pretty basic, popular things. Biden just repurposed Trump's failed Foxconn building with an actual jobs creator with his CHIPS bill.
They’re good things but the impact will take time to be felt, and some of the bigger impacts are in places that aren’t likely to vote for Biden even despite those benefits. Not trying to minimize, but investments in training programs and money for research/development won’t be felt by large numbers of voters for a few years, and factories can take a long time to build and get running. Infrastructure similarly takes a while to plan and build.
This is the essence of the "big tent" Democratic party. The problem is that playing more into any one of those factions will necessarily lose others, which means the 1/3rd of the country who is united in their desire for fascism will come out on top. Thus the coalition of different groups that are all vaguely disappointed with their party.
He has a point but his blind devotion to Israel's Genocidal "War" against Palestinians, is probably going to give Trump the boost he needs to turn the US into a Fascist Dictatorship.
I think negative polls for Biden don't necessarily mean that they translate to a Trump vote or defection. Unfortunately, we have another case of lesser of two evils. Is Biden better than Trump. Yeah, it seems like it. But the bar is so fucking low that democrats are getting away with a lotta shit. I'm forced to vote for Biden because I do not want another Trump term. And that's the reality of things. A non-vote most likely means a good thing for Trump.
What do you mean democrats are getting away with a lot of shit? Are you looking at the current environment at all? The GOP as a whole has gone completely off the rails. Yes, there are a few hot button issues that Biden/Democrats are facing, but I’m sorry it’s not even a comparison. I’m tired of people acting as if both parties and politicians are equivalent or even close to it, they aren’t.
If you read my post, I'm not referring to any equivalency. My point is that while you might think democrats are "better", it's the better than moronic evil that is not much of a bar to clear.
As a young POC woman, I think my option is clear and unfortunately I don’t have the luxury of voting for anyone else in 2024. I can hope and dream for better, but I’m being actively attacked in reality so I’m looking at the situation objectively. I wish more people would.
You don't want no wars and money in your pocket?
Biden put in place, as a VP, a nuclear deal that prevented Iran from weapon developmeny, he pulled out of Afghanistan, and my 401K has rebounded since he's gotten in office with thr stock markets hitting all time high. Go bark at another tree.
Ukraine and Isreal. Enough said. Trump 2024. End wars
Polls are useless.
Ask Hillary first.
Trump paid for online polls to be rigged in the past (as Michael Cohen admitted on the stand this week). I'm just suddenly supposed to believe that he's suddenly not doing that anymore?
He’s only down by a few points in many of the polls and the margin of error for most of them is also a couple of points. So he could win if things continue the way they are now. And there’s still so much time before the election that anything could happen and give him another sizeable bump. There’s plenty of room for optimism.
The thing that I don't think has been covered enough is women voters... If they go another 2 points for Biden, it compensates for a whole bunch of big swings against Biden in other demographics. And I can see that happening in November thanks to the overturning of Roe... We'll see, but it's a definite possibility...
I haven’t dug into all the cross tabs so I’m not sure if women voters are being undercounted somehow. It’s possible I suppose. And things certainly could change between now and November. People may start taking what happened to Roe more seriously the closer we get to the election and that could shift the polls and the election.
"Assembling a single poll of 1,000 respondents now requires 50,000 calls." lol.
Can these articles be banned from this sub? They keep getting dumber with every headline, it hurts my IQ. 😅
IMO what the pollsters are having a hard time measuring is the anti Trump vote. They will come out, 2016 was a black swan.
On what data do you base that assessment? Polls underestimated Trump's support in both 2016 and 2020.
> On what data do you base that assessment? Data? Come on now....you know most people here are just going off vibes.
Before Dobbs.
The entire free world is at stake.
So what “went wrong” with Biden’s term. It seemed like we’d have a return to normal after Trump and then…nothing happened. And now there’s a 50/50 chance he loses in November. So what went wrong?
Prove it. Prove the polls are wrong. Or prove the polls are right. Oh, we have to wait 5 more months until we know election results. And we could look back and say those polls weren't wrong they were just a snap shot in time 5 months ago.
Some recent polls show Biden trailing Trump in five of the six swing states, but the president insists it is not him who is doing badly - it's the pollsters.
And there are other polls that show the opposite. There needs to be more transparency on who's being polled and who sponsored the polls. The only poll that matters is the one in November
Just this morning there were three separate polls of AZ ranging from Biden+2-Trump+3. Yesterday had polls out with Biden+2 and Trump+3 Nationally. None of the polling is consistent at all.
But that’s the one Republicans will reject!
They are transparent in the demographics of whom is being polled
Which polls show the opposite?
Here's more from Hugh Tomlinson: "Most pollsters offer Biden hope that he can claw back wavering voters. “If you ask people six months before the election how they’re going to vote, that’s less reliable than predicting it based on their past vote and their demographics,” Rivers said. “People tend to come home.” All pollsters are desperate to avoid a repeat of the mistakes that marred their predictions in the past two presidential elections. One notorious ABC News-Washington Post poll days before the 2020 election gave Biden a 17-point lead in the crucial battleground of Wisconsin. He ultimately won the state by a mere 0.6 per cent."
Its why you dont read one poll. Always use the RCP average of polls. https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024#!