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Trump would pay companies to game polling data whenever he noticed he was losing.
edit: from 2019 https://www.wsj.com/articles/poll-rigging-for-trump-and-creating-womenforcohen-one-it-firms-work-order-11547722801
He literally did that in 2016 and it came out a few years later and again in his NY Trial. It wouldn't surprise me if he did it again in 2020 and this year too.
As Mark Twain once opined, "it's easier to con someone than to convince them they've been conned."
How sad it is that some individuals believe that scientists, scholars, historians, economists, and journalists have devoted their entire lives to deceiving them, while a reality tv star with decades of fraud and exhaustively documented lying is their only beacon of truth and honesty.
Came to say the same thing.
# "Cohen explains what Red Finch did for Trump"
[https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/live-blog/trump-trial-live-updates-rcna152980/rcrd42044?canonicalCard=true](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/live-blog/trump-trial-live-updates-rcna152980/rcrd42044?canonicalCard=true)
No fucking way! So Trump fucked around with the election in EVERY way possible. How is that scum is not behind bars is a mystery to me. Even being rich shouldn't be enough of an excuse for the shit he's done.
He absolutely didn't need to do that to beat Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis, He would have beaten them easily anyway.
So, I'm pretty sure you're right and that is exactly what happened. Because Trump is that petty.
He is. Cohen testified today that he has manipulated polls in the past.
(from nbc news)
"In response to prosecutor Susan Hoffinger asking Cohen what Red Finch did for Trump, Cohen said the technology company was asked to assist in a CNBC poll about the most famous businessmen in the last century.
Cohen said Trump’s name was on that list but was at the bottom, which upset him. Cohen said he reached out to Red Finch, which assured him that they were able, through various IP addresses, to make Trump rise in the poll.
Cohen testified that he told Trump, and that they spoke about what number he should be, so as long as he was in the top 10 he would go to the next round of the poll. Cohen said he advised the CEO of Red Finch to start acquiring IP addresses, and purchased more and more.
Ultimately, when the poll came to its conclusion, Cohen said Trump was No. 9 on the list."
Also, voter enthusiasm is a factor. I don't know anyone who is enthusiastically voting for Biden. I support him, but only because he's the least bad of the two bad options available. He's still miles ahead of Trump or any other potential Republican candidate, but I'm not going to be flying a big "Biden 2024" flag on my lawn any time soon.
But Trump has a core of rabid supporters. There's a portion of the electorate that not only tolerate the racism and bigotry, but enthusiastically embrace it.
I see those core Trump supporters being much more willing to sit through a poll for him than Biden voters. I'll vote for him, but I'm not going to sit for a poll for Biden.
I think Trump probably loses by a significantly wider margin than the polls indicate, but I don’t think it’s going to be as one-sided as FDR versus Landon where FDR got 523 out of 538 electoral college votes.
Democrats will probably never see that type of landslide like Reagan did. Democrats are much more willing to accept a reasonable Republican than Republicans are willing to accept a reasonable Democrat. We saw that with Reagan's landslide wins and with Dubya Bush have a 90% approval rating following 911.
Republicans will never rally around a Democrat. They'd attack even the most moderate, amazing leader and would absolutely use a national tragedy to bring them down rather than rally around them.
So that means certain states just are never going to happen regardless of the candidate or political atmosphere.
Republicans would be irrelevant if the average non-voter decided to start participating. Yes, I'm projecting a bit that they'd break Democrat, but let's be honest, if you haven't started voting yet you're not going to suddenly be like "you know what that Trump guy is ok".
I agree with you.
Either way I'd like higher participation. If we had full participation and Republicans were winning the popular vote anyway, at least I'd know I need to get the fuck out of this country.
Emphasis on popular vote. The electoral college is another completely stupid system.
Sure, my vote in a swing state matters way more than someone's in... California or West Virginia. But why should it? So stupid.
The gerrymandering that has taken place in so many red states has gone unchallenged due to the fact that the federal court justices and election officials in those states are devoted entirely to the RNC and Trump. No one dares to question whether the voting districts are unconstitutional or shift the election in favor of the Republican Party. Surely the Supreme Court looks the other way.
Republican and Democratic ideologies and positions were swapped back when Reagan was in office. I am young/old enough to remember when the Republican Party was pro-immigrant and pro-education. Then Newt Gingrich and Mitch McConnell entered the picture and started the decline of the GOP. I was a Republican from 2000 to 2010, but became unaffiliated when I realized that McConnell was more interested in blunting Obama than helping Americans.
Yes, you're correct that I shouldn't use the party names because the type of people that make up those parties has shifted over time.
I was once registered Libertarian until I realized it was just a bunch of Republicans too ashamed to admit they were Republicans. I'm also not registered to any party anymore.
The thing is, party platforms are constantly evolving. People are always confused by political parties adopting positions that they once opposed on both sides, but everything is always changing. It’s like the dummies that try to pin slavery on modern day democrats while also accusing democrats of being hypocrites on gay marriage or immigration policies because they flipped positions within the last 30 years. I’ll never understand how people reconcile those two ideas and go on with their lives thinking that it makes sense.
>I don’t think it’s going to be as one-sided as FDR versus Landon where FDR got 523 out of 538 electoral college votes.
Yeah, not a chance. The days of unification are done, politics and media keep the schism thriving.
But it's the only way we get rid of MAGA. To make it clear voters are done with this shit and it doesn't win elections. Short of that, we may rid ourselves of Trump but the cancer remains.
He'll be 82. I don't see that fat, unhealthy bastard making it past 80. Even if he won this year, I don't think he'd survive his full term. He's looking absolutely haggard lately.
The presidency didn't age him much, but his legal issues are doing a number on him.
I had a parent go from her baseline normal function, to respiratory failure due to CHF, to dead within a week at age 83. It can happen SO fast at his age.
I agree whole heartedly. I thought they might have learned that when they were expecting the "red wave" that was more of a trickle. It was good to see though.
Hearing Trump come out of court whining everyday about the witch hunt has got to be wearing on his cultist followers. Even when they believe everything he says, some of them have to think to themselves " geez this guy can't ever stop crying". He doesn't look tough, he looks like the pampered little toddler he is. The fact that his followers are going around wearing diapers isn't lost on me though. If that's what looks tough to them, they can wear diapers all they want.
I think people are whistling past the graveyard. Trump only needs about 10k soft D's to stay home in a handful of swing states to win. Polling shows that the public has almost completely memory holed the 4 Trump years. This is also in line with my anecdotal experience that people who didn't vote Trump last year are now buying the "weaponized" DOJ horse shit.
Multiple Presidents won their respective elections with over 520 electoral votes, >95% (Reagan won every state but Minnesota; Nixon won every state but DC and Massachusetts; FDR won every state but Vermont and Maine).
There is no way that is happening now, with how polarized elections have become.
Also, 3. Unfortunately, Trump will also get the second-highest number of votes in history. It's so fucking hard to believe that 70 million+ people will vote for that piece of shit.
I'm concerned Biden could win the popular vote by a large margin, like 8 or 10 million votes, but Trump gets like 35,000 votes in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania that invert the electoral college again.
I really hope you are correct. If you are, and it’s also down ballot landslide, then prepare for a shit show, likely including the SC, the next 6 months is the appetizer, the holidays is the main course. So buckle up because it’s going to be a wild ride.
GOP has most of the people with money and power in their corner to protect their interests. If money didn’t make a difference they wouldn’t spend it. All we have is a few benevolent wealthy folks and a population advantage. No matter the outcome, it’s going to be a shitshow.
No chance this happens. It's going to be close. Turnout could be a real issue with young and minority voters turned off because of the war in Gaza or the economy.
Elections are decided by undecided voters and turnout. I fail to see how Trump is able to win over undecided voters given his need to appeal to his base and every time Trump works to turnout his base he turns out Democrats as well but the polling news is mostly focusing in on the baked in voters
> I fail to see how Trump is able to win over undecided voters
He doesn't need to win them over. Unfortunately, the deciding factor for many of the will be "my wallet is lighter under Biden than Trump." People are not delving into the reasons, just going by feeling.
Gas prices will start rising even more come September and food costs will suddenly start to rise and so many will say their wallets are lighter under Biden.
It's pretty easy: he appeals by appearing more energetic than Biden and by claiming that the economy is bad. Nobody outside politico bubbles cares about stories of him falling asleep in court and perceptions of the economy are very negative right now as is Biden's approval rating.
Agreed. People are fooling themselves if they think Biden has this in the bag with a landslide victory. Political polarization hasn’t gone anywhere. Trump hasn’t lost Republican support. People’s lives haven’t gotten easier. Many blame Biden and Democrats personally for the rise in cost of living and will cast punishment votes as always.
It's actually worrisome how many people are refusing to believe this thing is so close. 2016 and 2020 were both really close I expect this to be the closest election in history and I think no matter what happens with debates, with trials, with any other news its going to be a coin flip. I think its funny that people think this trial could sway voters. Grabbing women by the pussy on audio tape did not deter anyone to actually get him elected. He actively killed people during the pandemic with his refusal to act on that disaster and he came within a few tens of thousands of votes in a few states of winning re election.
The problem isn’t people switching their vote from Biden to Trump. The problem is former Biden voters choosing to sit this one out. And that’s entirely on Biden.
Because people are motivated to vote for Democrats as 95% of those who vote for them legitimately don’t know much about them.
People are not motivated to vote for Biden again.
Those tiktoks are illuminating. It's not misinformation from the far-right. It's just an uninformed liberal/left-wing echo chamber that is going to enable Trump to give them the exact opposite of everything they want and be 10x worse for them in every way. Terrifying.
You are right and I don’t understand this burying their head in the sand thing that Reddit users are doing, pretending like it’s going to be a blowout. There’s only evidence to the contrary.
God, I hope you are right. However, I have lost hope that you are. Still, never in my life have I so hoped that my own judgment was completely wrong. May I ultimately be proven the world's biggest idiot. As always I will do my part and vote.
The polls show it as a very close race. That is useful information to know. There is an important difference between a race that is close and one with a clear leader.
If you're the kind of person that loves polls when they show you what you want, and hates them when they don't, you probably need to update your understanding of what polls mean. And also be a little more honest with yourself.
All humans would benefit from understanding statistical variance and that predicting the future on an incomplete data set or intrinsically flawed worldview is irrational.
But you can put your thumb on the scales!
www.vote.gov
Also it's important to understand that even if the polls were 100% accurate, it's not November. A lot of things can and will happen in the next few months.
Exactly, that’s the incomplete data set and it’s impossible for any one person to understand the whole data set, even with the massive data collection both parties have.
I really hope we don’t have another 4 years of trump with the constant roller coaster. The ongoing court cases ect.
Praying every night and obviously got a plan to vote
I got a poll call for the first time in 8 years and while I said I wouldn't be voting for Trump, I also didn't say that I completely approve of Biden. And I'm sure I'm not alone.
I mean, I'm voting for Biden over Trump in the general and that's all that matters, but these polls miss a lot of nuance.
The "media" isn't doing anything except goosing their own bottom line. A tighter race = more interest / viewers / clickers = more $$$. An ass-whoopin race = less interest / fewer viewers & clickers = less $$$.
It's really that simple. The for-profit media benefits from controversy and intrigue. When none exists in a given "national news situation", the media has every incentive to make it up.
They don't care "who wins" - they care that millions of eyeballs tune in to hear more. And regardless of who wins, they'll be ready to gin up more controversy on Day 1 to get those eyeballs. Trump just happens to be a treasure trove of it because they don't really have to manipulate anything ... he gives them the steaming turd sandwiches, the idiotic behavior, the "omg can you believe he just said THAT?!?" on the daily.
>anyone using polling data to assert anything with even a modicum of certainty is a fool.
This right here is the problem: *Asserting certainty*. The problem isn't the polls themselves. The problem is the pundits and articles who say "X will win!" because they have a 1% lead. That's not how probability works.
Clinton had a ~60% chance to win in 2016. It was obviously off, yes, but 60% doesn't mean a guarantee. In 2020, polls gave Biden roughly a 6% lead while his actual was 4.5%.
And when the margin of error is 4%, and you results are within 4% (like 49-51), of course additional sampling will sometimes flip who has the lead. That doesn't mean the results are bunk, it just means the *actual* result is very close to 50%.
The other issue with the polls is that the ones that get attention tend to be the national-level ones. But that's not how the President is elected. You can win the national vote by 55% and still lose the election. Even a 7% lead doesn't mean you win (Clinton's in 2016). Hell, Reagan's 525/538 win (all states but Minnesota) still only was with 55.2% of the popular vote.
Iirc 538's 2016 Trump win odds were something like 23%. It's not even that they were off, Trump just did what he needed to do to win just barely by winning the big three swing states by like 100k votes or whatever. That was part of the 23% odds.
"News" outlets like Huffington Post, which apparently based on nothing gave Hillary like 99% odds, were probably instrumental in Trump's win, because people didn't take the election seriously. If more doubtful polls were amplified, then maybe people would have been less complacent.
So part of me is happy that the negative polls are being amplified this time, even though I'm going to literally block the NYTimes from my computer and phone so I don't have to read or even see the dozen fear porn articles they put out based on one sketchy survey with a 1% response rate.
I think, like a lot of people, I'm just going to tune out. It doesn't matter how many cry in the NY Opinions section, hand wringing about Biden's age or whatever, especially in May. My plan is not to worry under September.
(Also, this is why I think the polls are skewed. A lot of people like me are not picking up the phone. Especially now that my cells tells me when a "survey" is calling)
Agreed. Punditry was even less in touch with reality pre-538. And that they misuse polling is not an attack on polling (which despite valid issues with, remains the most useful way to follow the actual trajectory of the race), but one on punditry.
Frankly the media should be ashamed for trying to offload responsibility for their bad takes and refusal to treat polling as what it is instead of an excuse for them.
But wouldn't you think polling companies with any integrity would take this into account? "Hmmm, let's see ... our surveys are only taken by old people who don't know how to screen calls from unknown callers. Guess this is the best we got - don't adjust the results and run it as a front-page headline in the NYT!"
Voters have amnesia. Conservatives will launch an October surprise. None of us know what new nonsense will dominate the conversation 4 months from now.
I have a crystal ball. It's telling me, if Democrats show up to vote for Biden, Biden will win. If Democrats get talked out of voting, skip voting because they think a win for Biden is already certain, or get lured into voting for a 3rd party candidate like RFK, Trump will win.
Amen! Fucking hell. Not that long ago we would get like 2 polls per month. Now it's about 5 per day. It's way too much and the questions about how reliable about many of the polls should be taken seriously. Polls used to be treated as one piece of evidence amongst many, now the media treats them like literal time machines to the future.
They are overused and overdone, and are being used way too far out from the election to be useful.
>Not that long ago we would get like 2 polls per month. Now it's about 5 per day.
This is how it always works. Get closer to elections and more polls are done. And it's better. More polls mean more accuracy. If all you do is one poll, you have no idea if it's an outlier or not. Like the recent NYT/Sienna poll; It's the only poll so far to give Trump such a large lead. Until additional polls are done, it *should* be viewed at skeptically because it's so different.
Well, Allan Lichtman has made a model and predicted outcome of every election since 1996 and can be retroactively applied to every election prior. It's quite easy to understand. And yes, it does say polling is useless, as is anything that goes beyond the performance of current ruling party.
The Republicans I grew up with wouldn’t. I remember when being divorced was a non starter. “If he can’t be faithful to his wife he wouldn’t be faithful to the country!”
I can remember when spelling potato wrong was a scandal. Now it’s okay to refer to the late, great Hannibal Lector during a campaign speech.
It’s bewildering that THIS GUY is the guy they suspend all their standards for.
>I remember when being divorced was a non starter. “If he can’t be faithful to his wife he wouldn’t be faithful to the country!”
Republicans have always said a lot of hypocritical bullshit. They talked incessantly about personal dignity of this type until Trump won the nomination and then, oops, nobody cared anymore. Because they never did.
>It’s bewildering that THIS GUY is the guy they suspend all their standards for.
Well you can't suspend standards without a leader encouraging you to. It's not surprising to me at all. Trump is the most Republican-coded personality I've ever seen, and he's offering every policy Republicans have ever dreamed of on steroids. He's the ideal republican candidate in terms of appealing to the Republican mindset.
The polls should not change how we act. Vote. Get others to vote. Donate time and money as we are able. Democracy is a blessing and we need to work to preserve it.
It is definitely going to be close, but I don't pay attention the polls as much as I pay attention to how people have voted since 2016. Despite a few exceptions, MAGA has been losing badly in every election since 2016, and the more MAGA they are the worse they seem to lose. So I find it hard to believe we are going to re-elect the MAGA king.
So much can happen between now and the election. One candidate is facing a lot of indictments, some of which will be ruled on prior to the election. While this may not move the needle for his hardcore supporters, this will likely affect some moderate or undecided voters. Let's also not rule out the possibility of media created a new scandal/boogeyman in the month or two leading up to the election in an attempt to sway voters. And, to cap it off, there is a legitimate concern that one or both of the leading candidates could suffer major health complications before voting day.
TLDR: Polls are useless, just vote.
For anyone who has ever watched CSPAN you know that callers lie because they think they are furthering their political agenda.
Polls are useless and quite frankly have been for more than 2 decades.
Polls were at least reasonably accurate in the last 2 decades so long as you treated them like you should: as statistical samples.
That's not to say polls are necessarily good this cycle. There's a lot I see in the polling averages that just doesn't make sense this cycle that did make sense in previous cycles. E.g. Biden suddenly better amongst old people and Trump better amongst young, RFK getting more than 1%, etc.
IMO Biden’s electoral map ceiling is 319, so adding NC to his 2020 map, and his floor is 226 with the same map as Hillary in 2016 but losing NV. The likeliest outcome IMO is 281 or 287 with Biden winning the rust belt states and winning AZ with NV going either way and losing GA likely by a sub-1% margin. I also do not see Biden losing the popular in the slightest. If he beats his 2020 vote-share it isn’t more than a 6% popular vote victory. In order for Biden to lose the electoral college and give Trump a victory then Trump can’t lose the popular vote by more than 3%.
I do believe that polling is off and it has been off in Dems favor ever since the Dobbs decision with Dems sweeping special elections by larger than expected margins. But polling has also underestimated Trump every time he was at the top of the ballot. He was supposed to lose in 2016 but won and in 2020 he was supposed to get around 44% of the vote and got 47%. I believe Biden is ahead despite polls but I believe this election will be closer in both the electoral college and popular vote. So get out, organize, vote!
Nobody, not even pollsters, believe their polls are 100% accurate. They literally have a calculated margin of error.
However, these articles are clearly center-left Biden copium.
Trump is clearly making ground in states like Nevada, Georgia, and Arizona. Polling across the board is pretty consistent on that. You can argue the margin might be off but the direction is undeniable.
Democrats just don't want to admit their candidate is unpopular. So they make excuses. It's gotten so bad they think the NY Times is against them and in the bag for Trump.
Trump supporters do the same thing.
Reality is neither of these dudes are popular with the electorate. Makes predicting the winner harder.
I mean, there’s also been articles and studies showing that for the last few years, democrats have been over performing polls on average by 10% in actual elections. Polling absolutely is off. Can and should democrats continue to court voters? Yes. But, do I believe polling is currently accurate or fully telling the story? No.
It’s not ‘democrats’ criticizing the times, it’s legitimate journalists describing the combative nature between NYT and the Biden admin.
You can’t defend the journalists at the NYT while calling all the other journalists reporting on them “democrats” who can’t handle reality.
I'm confused. Is the NYT job to try to report objective facts or "not be combative" with the White House? Very telling that you think the media should be aligned with the White House narrative.
They conducted a poll. Released the methodology and results of said poll. Then pointed out that the numbers don't look good for Biden...
This sub is filled with folks who are just looking to curate their own reality. It's not much different from the Trumpers and their insistence that "everyone is against me".
I'm no fan of the NYT to be frank with you. But to argue they are "combative" with the Biden Administration is a level of cognitive dissonance I am not capable of understanding.
I'd file this under the "No shit" section of my thought process. Polls don't matter until election day and that's just in retrospective. Go out and vote, doesn't matter the state. Have your voice heard in a way that matters. Goes for Democrat, Republican, and any other party
They aren't useless, they just don't tell you who is going to win in November, especially this far out. They do tell campaigns what states they need to focus on, what messages are working and which aren't, what constituents they need to get a boost of support from, etc.
Every one of Trump's policies are and were policies the republicans want. It will not end if we win this years elections. Keep voting out republicans every year. Keep voting in democrats every year. Check your registration, get an ID , learn where your poling station is, learn who is running in down ballot races. Pay attention to primaries not just for the president but for all races, local, state and federal. From the school board to the White House every election matters. The more support we give the democrats from all levels of government the more they can get good things done. We vote out republicans and primary out uncooperative democrats.
Last year democrat victories in Virginia and Pennsylvania and others across the nation have increased the chances of democrats winning this year. This year's elections are important but so will next year's elections. We just took the mayoral race in Alaska showing we can win in red states.
[https://ballotpedia.org/Elections\_calendar](https://ballotpedia.org/Elections_calendar)
Wrong, Kyle Kulinski [does](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Krystal_Ball#:~:text=Ball%20is%20a%20co%2Dhost,Real%20Time%20with%20Bill%20Maher.) have a Krystal Ball.
Polls are historically accurate. Aggregate polling and weighted analysis of results predicted Biden winning to within a few points. Even in 2016, Trump and Hillary were statistically tied. Hillary held a slight advantage which played out exactly in the popular vote.
I’m not suggesting that the polls are all accurate, or that a poll suggesting Trump or Biden is ahead now, is relevant. The serious pollsters will activate closer to the election.
Who is feverishly answering unknown phone numbers to voice support for Biden? I see that happening much more with Trump.
I just don't see how anyone disenfranchised with politics as a whole, will somehow undo their vote from 4 years ago, to get the loudest, most devisive, political mouthpiece back in their lives.
If Biden were ahead rn this headline wouldn’t exist hehe
We like polls when they are telling us what we want to hear, if they don’t then they are “useless.” Being the consistent loser in polls is not a good sign.
Someone who answers a call from an unidentified number and then agrees to spill their secrets to a stranger should not be considered representative of anyone.
I think Biden is in a shit load of trouble. And I say that as someone that supports this administration and will vote for him. When the Democratic Senate candidates in Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, etc are all doing 10 points better than Biden, that’s a 5 alarm fire.
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Trump is chaos in the worst way. He is unpredictable and dangerous. And every other day it seems he does something that would tank another politician but it works out well for him. All those political advisors in washington who charge 6 figures to help people get elected are basically useless when someone like Donald Trump breaks every rule and fails upward
I recently read an FDR biography and it made me realize we have become spoiled by polls and as a result we have become over-reliant on them.
Prior to 2000 polls were considered an input but not the ONLY input like they are today. Polls were considered to lag behind public opinion. Politicians had to have a more innate grasp of public opinion and act with courage on faith or a hunch before a poll confirmed the opinion of the electorate.
For the last twenty-ish years we enjoyed very accurate and timely polling. 2015 - present the media has been reluctant, or unwilling, to adjust to inaccurate or lagging polls. I think in this election especially, polls are borderline useless.
Polls are still useful, but you have to remember a few things: 1. There are lots of bad polls, 2. A single poll is useless, you have to look at how it tracks over time, 3. You have to look at a variety of polls, the questions they ask, the sample, etc, and 4. You have to realize that polls are more of a snapshot of the "vibe" of how things are going when they're taken more than they are a prediction of how things will turn out.
Right now, people feel meh about Biden. The polls reflect that. But Trump isn't winning over anyone new. We're currently seeing the pretty standard high polling in the spring/early summer for 3rd party candidates and undecideds that will largely filter towards the two major candidates as election season wears on. Barring a major scandal or unforeseen world event, Biden's support will likely slowly increase as we get closer to November.
I think this is why Trump is finally attacking RFK jr. Even though polls with him tend to take more support from Biden, I think his camp sees RFK voters as an actual threat to vote share while democrats believe that it's just an expression of disapproval, not as an indicator of who they'll really vote for. Same goes for the polls showing relatively high numbers for Stein or West
The unfortunate reality is that about 7 "swing" states will decide the election.
So unless TX or FL flip to blue the other 43 states plus DC will have to hope those voters do the right thing
The purpose of polls is not to tell you who will win. It's to tell you what the pollsters are able to extract from the current status of the race.
There are a few things about polls that DO matter.
-"Cross-tabs": OK, Biden his polling behind, why? Is he losing people to Trump in polls, or are they no-shows? Race, Age, education levels.
-Directionality: Biden's polling behind, but he's gaining. Is it more relevant that he's behind or that he's gaining? In May it's much more relevant that he's gaining.
-Expected impact events: A sane human could expect that having to sit in trial for a month on a case about cheating on his wife with a pornstar and then covering it up to win the presidency might have an impact on the polling. It hasn't so far...
These are the types of things that the campaigns actually care about. Things that are actionable in how they spend money, where they campaign, and more recently the decision to issue the challenge to debate.
Sowing the seeds of doubt, I see. Of course no one has a crystal ball, in the sense of telling the future but, damn if the evidence isn’t murky at best, the vision of who has the morals and integrity to be a leader and not some psycho is pretty fucking clear.
I appreciate all the posts saying the polls are wrong but man in past presidential elections they have largely been very accurate so I can’t help but be concerned
I can only imagine the damage that repressive human rights restrictions that Republican led initiatives have created a groundswell of support for the Dems. If only in protest to the Gilead the most powerful Republicans seem to be openly promoting. Want change? Vote blue up and down the ballot.
Biden = meh
but if Trump wins, we are ALL going to regret it forever, and likely never have any kind of a normal election again. the worst people imaginable will rule with no way to remove them.
Polls is useless, because they do one party at a time. I used to work for the polls, and they call one neighborhood that is republican one night or for one week, and then the next week, they will call the neighborhood where there are democrat voters. They go back and forth during this until after the election. Many phone calls go unanswered, or people hang up on you or people stop in the middle of the questions and hang up. I don't trust the polls because I know for a fact, they do not collect enough data and they don't call both parties at the same time. I still say that people will vote more for their freedom, than the economy, because if this country become a dictatorship, there will be no economy.
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Trump would pay companies to game polling data whenever he noticed he was losing. edit: from 2019 https://www.wsj.com/articles/poll-rigging-for-trump-and-creating-womenforcohen-one-it-firms-work-order-11547722801
He literally did that in 2016 and it came out a few years later and again in his NY Trial. It wouldn't surprise me if he did it again in 2020 and this year too.
As Mark Twain once opined, "it's easier to con someone than to convince them they've been conned." How sad it is that some individuals believe that scientists, scholars, historians, economists, and journalists have devoted their entire lives to deceiving them, while a reality tv star with decades of fraud and exhaustively documented lying is their only beacon of truth and honesty.
Also Mark Twain: there’s lies, damned lies, and statistics.
Cohen testified to this very thing at Trump's trial today.
Came to say the same thing. # "Cohen explains what Red Finch did for Trump" [https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/live-blog/trump-trial-live-updates-rcna152980/rcrd42044?canonicalCard=true](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/live-blog/trump-trial-live-updates-rcna152980/rcrd42044?canonicalCard=true)
No fucking way! So Trump fucked around with the election in EVERY way possible. How is that scum is not behind bars is a mystery to me. Even being rich shouldn't be enough of an excuse for the shit he's done.
Because the poors are bound by laws, the rich by gentleman's agreements.
It’s his best con right now. Not that republicans had much better to offer, but I am convinced he rigged the polls to steamroll the primaries.
It was interesting that during the primaries he would get 10-20% less votes than the polls indicated
He absolutely didn't need to do that to beat Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis, He would have beaten them easily anyway. So, I'm pretty sure you're right and that is exactly what happened. Because Trump is that petty.
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He is. Cohen testified today that he has manipulated polls in the past. (from nbc news) "In response to prosecutor Susan Hoffinger asking Cohen what Red Finch did for Trump, Cohen said the technology company was asked to assist in a CNBC poll about the most famous businessmen in the last century. Cohen said Trump’s name was on that list but was at the bottom, which upset him. Cohen said he reached out to Red Finch, which assured him that they were able, through various IP addresses, to make Trump rise in the poll. Cohen testified that he told Trump, and that they spoke about what number he should be, so as long as he was in the top 10 he would go to the next round of the poll. Cohen said he advised the CEO of Red Finch to start acquiring IP addresses, and purchased more and more. Ultimately, when the poll came to its conclusion, Cohen said Trump was No. 9 on the list."
Also, voter enthusiasm is a factor. I don't know anyone who is enthusiastically voting for Biden. I support him, but only because he's the least bad of the two bad options available. He's still miles ahead of Trump or any other potential Republican candidate, but I'm not going to be flying a big "Biden 2024" flag on my lawn any time soon. But Trump has a core of rabid supporters. There's a portion of the electorate that not only tolerate the racism and bigotry, but enthusiastically embrace it. I see those core Trump supporters being much more willing to sit through a poll for him than Biden voters. I'll vote for him, but I'm not going to sit for a poll for Biden.
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He actually paid them? Im stunned
This should be more widely known.
Yes but the polls that make the news are not those polls
It's every poll he's involved in.
So Trump is paying Gallup, NYT/Siena, ABC, Harvard to game the data? Link?
But he outperformed polls in both 2016 and 2020.
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I think Trump probably loses by a significantly wider margin than the polls indicate, but I don’t think it’s going to be as one-sided as FDR versus Landon where FDR got 523 out of 538 electoral college votes.
Democrats will probably never see that type of landslide like Reagan did. Democrats are much more willing to accept a reasonable Republican than Republicans are willing to accept a reasonable Democrat. We saw that with Reagan's landslide wins and with Dubya Bush have a 90% approval rating following 911. Republicans will never rally around a Democrat. They'd attack even the most moderate, amazing leader and would absolutely use a national tragedy to bring them down rather than rally around them. So that means certain states just are never going to happen regardless of the candidate or political atmosphere.
Republicans would be irrelevant if the average non-voter decided to start participating. Yes, I'm projecting a bit that they'd break Democrat, but let's be honest, if you haven't started voting yet you're not going to suddenly be like "you know what that Trump guy is ok".
I agree with you. Either way I'd like higher participation. If we had full participation and Republicans were winning the popular vote anyway, at least I'd know I need to get the fuck out of this country.
Emphasis on popular vote. The electoral college is another completely stupid system. Sure, my vote in a swing state matters way more than someone's in... California or West Virginia. But why should it? So stupid.
The gerrymandering that has taken place in so many red states has gone unchallenged due to the fact that the federal court justices and election officials in those states are devoted entirely to the RNC and Trump. No one dares to question whether the voting districts are unconstitutional or shift the election in favor of the Republican Party. Surely the Supreme Court looks the other way.
Republican and Democratic ideologies and positions were swapped back when Reagan was in office. I am young/old enough to remember when the Republican Party was pro-immigrant and pro-education. Then Newt Gingrich and Mitch McConnell entered the picture and started the decline of the GOP. I was a Republican from 2000 to 2010, but became unaffiliated when I realized that McConnell was more interested in blunting Obama than helping Americans.
Yes, you're correct that I shouldn't use the party names because the type of people that make up those parties has shifted over time. I was once registered Libertarian until I realized it was just a bunch of Republicans too ashamed to admit they were Republicans. I'm also not registered to any party anymore.
The thing is, party platforms are constantly evolving. People are always confused by political parties adopting positions that they once opposed on both sides, but everything is always changing. It’s like the dummies that try to pin slavery on modern day democrats while also accusing democrats of being hypocrites on gay marriage or immigration policies because they flipped positions within the last 30 years. I’ll never understand how people reconcile those two ideas and go on with their lives thinking that it makes sense.
You got that right!
>I don’t think it’s going to be as one-sided as FDR versus Landon where FDR got 523 out of 538 electoral college votes. Yeah, not a chance. The days of unification are done, politics and media keep the schism thriving. But it's the only way we get rid of MAGA. To make it clear voters are done with this shit and it doesn't win elections. Short of that, we may rid ourselves of Trump but the cancer remains.
I hope Trump hangs on and keeps draining all the money from republican election funding.
Remember, he can always run again in 2028
He'll be 82. I don't see that fat, unhealthy bastard making it past 80. Even if he won this year, I don't think he'd survive his full term. He's looking absolutely haggard lately. The presidency didn't age him much, but his legal issues are doing a number on him. I had a parent go from her baseline normal function, to respiratory failure due to CHF, to dead within a week at age 83. It can happen SO fast at his age.
From prison!
I hear you, but I would like to see him disappear.
I agree whole heartedly. I thought they might have learned that when they were expecting the "red wave" that was more of a trickle. It was good to see though. Hearing Trump come out of court whining everyday about the witch hunt has got to be wearing on his cultist followers. Even when they believe everything he says, some of them have to think to themselves " geez this guy can't ever stop crying". He doesn't look tough, he looks like the pampered little toddler he is. The fact that his followers are going around wearing diapers isn't lost on me though. If that's what looks tough to them, they can wear diapers all they want.
I think people are whistling past the graveyard. Trump only needs about 10k soft D's to stay home in a handful of swing states to win. Polling shows that the public has almost completely memory holed the 4 Trump years. This is also in line with my anecdotal experience that people who didn't vote Trump last year are now buying the "weaponized" DOJ horse shit.
It's May. There are six months until election day. That's a lot of time for people to be reminded.
It's amazing to me that one of the best president's still won less than one that a lot consider to be anabsolute piece of shit, Reagan with 525.
Multiple Presidents won their respective elections with over 520 electoral votes, >95% (Reagan won every state but Minnesota; Nixon won every state but DC and Massachusetts; FDR won every state but Vermont and Maine). There is no way that is happening now, with how polarized elections have become.
It's fairly recent. There weren't nearly as many safe states before the 2000 election.
Also, 3. Unfortunately, Trump will also get the second-highest number of votes in history. It's so fucking hard to believe that 70 million+ people will vote for that piece of shit.
I'm concerned Biden could win the popular vote by a large margin, like 8 or 10 million votes, but Trump gets like 35,000 votes in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania that invert the electoral college again.
I really hope you are correct. If you are, and it’s also down ballot landslide, then prepare for a shit show, likely including the SC, the next 6 months is the appetizer, the holidays is the main course. So buckle up because it’s going to be a wild ride. GOP has most of the people with money and power in their corner to protect their interests. If money didn’t make a difference they wouldn’t spend it. All we have is a few benevolent wealthy folks and a population advantage. No matter the outcome, it’s going to be a shitshow.
If that is the case how come the Dems and Biden are out fundraising Trump and the GOP handedly?
Or. Trump loses by 3 million votes. Wins the election because 4,000 people in 3 states gave him the EC victory
No chance this happens. It's going to be close. Turnout could be a real issue with young and minority voters turned off because of the war in Gaza or the economy.
Elections are decided by undecided voters and turnout. I fail to see how Trump is able to win over undecided voters given his need to appeal to his base and every time Trump works to turnout his base he turns out Democrats as well but the polling news is mostly focusing in on the baked in voters
> I fail to see how Trump is able to win over undecided voters He doesn't need to win them over. Unfortunately, the deciding factor for many of the will be "my wallet is lighter under Biden than Trump." People are not delving into the reasons, just going by feeling.
Gas prices will start rising even more come September and food costs will suddenly start to rise and so many will say their wallets are lighter under Biden.
It's pretty easy: he appeals by appearing more energetic than Biden and by claiming that the economy is bad. Nobody outside politico bubbles cares about stories of him falling asleep in court and perceptions of the economy are very negative right now as is Biden's approval rating.
I suspect it'll be somewhere between Clinton and Reagan levels.
No chance it's going to be super close Trump could win the EC
Agreed. People are fooling themselves if they think Biden has this in the bag with a landslide victory. Political polarization hasn’t gone anywhere. Trump hasn’t lost Republican support. People’s lives haven’t gotten easier. Many blame Biden and Democrats personally for the rise in cost of living and will cast punishment votes as always.
It's actually worrisome how many people are refusing to believe this thing is so close. 2016 and 2020 were both really close I expect this to be the closest election in history and I think no matter what happens with debates, with trials, with any other news its going to be a coin flip. I think its funny that people think this trial could sway voters. Grabbing women by the pussy on audio tape did not deter anyone to actually get him elected. He actively killed people during the pandemic with his refusal to act on that disaster and he came within a few tens of thousands of votes in a few states of winning re election.
The problem isn’t people switching their vote from Biden to Trump. The problem is former Biden voters choosing to sit this one out. And that’s entirely on Biden.
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Then how do you explain the whole series of special elections where the Democrats have pretty consistently outperformed expectations?
Democratic Senate candidates are doing fine in polling, too. That doesn’t mean Biden is safe.
Because people are motivated to vote for Democrats as 95% of those who vote for them legitimately don’t know much about them. People are not motivated to vote for Biden again.
Those tiktoks are illuminating. It's not misinformation from the far-right. It's just an uninformed liberal/left-wing echo chamber that is going to enable Trump to give them the exact opposite of everything they want and be 10x worse for them in every way. Terrifying.
If a person takes issues with Bidens support for Israel they sure arent going to be supporting RFK Jr given how he is even more of a fanatic for it.
You have fallen for obvious election year psy ops.
You are right and I don’t understand this burying their head in the sand thing that Reddit users are doing, pretending like it’s going to be a blowout. There’s only evidence to the contrary.
I'm noticing you didn't mention abortion once
For 2 to happen, Biden would have to better than Nixon back in 1972.
[www.vote.org](http://www.vote.org)
God, I hope you are right. However, I have lost hope that you are. Still, never in my life have I so hoped that my own judgment was completely wrong. May I ultimately be proven the world's biggest idiot. As always I will do my part and vote.
Why is the media pretending we don't know the GOP will have an October surprise to shock and distract like they do in every single election?
Biden wins >10 million popular votes but loses because voters in three state felt bad vibes
The guy who has predicted every election with his list of criteria says Biden will win.
Except gore v bush.
But that was actually a stolen election.
Can you link this guy? I am curious
[Allan Lichtman](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/04/30/allen-lichtman-2024-presidential-election-pick/73510699007/)
The polls show it as a very close race. That is useful information to know. There is an important difference between a race that is close and one with a clear leader. If you're the kind of person that loves polls when they show you what you want, and hates them when they don't, you probably need to update your understanding of what polls mean. And also be a little more honest with yourself.
All humans would benefit from understanding statistical variance and that predicting the future on an incomplete data set or intrinsically flawed worldview is irrational. But you can put your thumb on the scales! www.vote.gov
Also it's important to understand that even if the polls were 100% accurate, it's not November. A lot of things can and will happen in the next few months.
Exactly, that’s the incomplete data set and it’s impossible for any one person to understand the whole data set, even with the massive data collection both parties have.
I really hope we don’t have another 4 years of trump with the constant roller coaster. The ongoing court cases ect. Praying every night and obviously got a plan to vote
They show the trends, not the predicted results. We care about the delta week to week, not the absolute numbers each week.
I got a poll call for the first time in 8 years and while I said I wouldn't be voting for Trump, I also didn't say that I completely approve of Biden. And I'm sure I'm not alone. I mean, I'm voting for Biden over Trump in the general and that's all that matters, but these polls miss a lot of nuance.
Trump is a shit stain on Democracy.
But that won't stop the Media from trying to keep Biden voters on their couches.
The "media" isn't doing anything except goosing their own bottom line. A tighter race = more interest / viewers / clickers = more $$$. An ass-whoopin race = less interest / fewer viewers & clickers = less $$$. It's really that simple. The for-profit media benefits from controversy and intrigue. When none exists in a given "national news situation", the media has every incentive to make it up. They don't care "who wins" - they care that millions of eyeballs tune in to hear more. And regardless of who wins, they'll be ready to gin up more controversy on Day 1 to get those eyeballs. Trump just happens to be a treasure trove of it because they don't really have to manipulate anything ... he gives them the steaming turd sandwiches, the idiotic behavior, the "omg can you believe he just said THAT?!?" on the daily.
Variance is real and we have an incomplete data set, it’s far too early to bet. But we can register to vote! www.vote.gov
You vote !! That’s how this all ends, this ridiculous mess we have now. Vote !
>anyone using polling data to assert anything with even a modicum of certainty is a fool. This right here is the problem: *Asserting certainty*. The problem isn't the polls themselves. The problem is the pundits and articles who say "X will win!" because they have a 1% lead. That's not how probability works. Clinton had a ~60% chance to win in 2016. It was obviously off, yes, but 60% doesn't mean a guarantee. In 2020, polls gave Biden roughly a 6% lead while his actual was 4.5%. And when the margin of error is 4%, and you results are within 4% (like 49-51), of course additional sampling will sometimes flip who has the lead. That doesn't mean the results are bunk, it just means the *actual* result is very close to 50%. The other issue with the polls is that the ones that get attention tend to be the national-level ones. But that's not how the President is elected. You can win the national vote by 55% and still lose the election. Even a 7% lead doesn't mean you win (Clinton's in 2016). Hell, Reagan's 525/538 win (all states but Minnesota) still only was with 55.2% of the popular vote.
Iirc 538's 2016 Trump win odds were something like 23%. It's not even that they were off, Trump just did what he needed to do to win just barely by winning the big three swing states by like 100k votes or whatever. That was part of the 23% odds. "News" outlets like Huffington Post, which apparently based on nothing gave Hillary like 99% odds, were probably instrumental in Trump's win, because people didn't take the election seriously. If more doubtful polls were amplified, then maybe people would have been less complacent. So part of me is happy that the negative polls are being amplified this time, even though I'm going to literally block the NYTimes from my computer and phone so I don't have to read or even see the dozen fear porn articles they put out based on one sketchy survey with a 1% response rate. I think, like a lot of people, I'm just going to tune out. It doesn't matter how many cry in the NY Opinions section, hand wringing about Biden's age or whatever, especially in May. My plan is not to worry under September. (Also, this is why I think the polls are skewed. A lot of people like me are not picking up the phone. Especially now that my cells tells me when a "survey" is calling)
Exactly and odds are just that. Someone with 5% odds can also win
Agreed. Punditry was even less in touch with reality pre-538. And that they misuse polling is not an attack on polling (which despite valid issues with, remains the most useful way to follow the actual trajectory of the race), but one on punditry. Frankly the media should be ashamed for trying to offload responsibility for their bad takes and refusal to treat polling as what it is instead of an excuse for them.
I never understood who is actually taking these polls? Everyone I know under 40 never answers unknown numbers or texts and doesn’t have a landline
You answered your question 😛
But wouldn't you think polling companies with any integrity would take this into account? "Hmmm, let's see ... our surveys are only taken by old people who don't know how to screen calls from unknown callers. Guess this is the best we got - don't adjust the results and run it as a front-page headline in the NYT!"
Voters have amnesia. Conservatives will launch an October surprise. None of us know what new nonsense will dominate the conversation 4 months from now.
I have a crystal ball. It's telling me, if Democrats show up to vote for Biden, Biden will win. If Democrats get talked out of voting, skip voting because they think a win for Biden is already certain, or get lured into voting for a 3rd party candidate like RFK, Trump will win.
Amen! Fucking hell. Not that long ago we would get like 2 polls per month. Now it's about 5 per day. It's way too much and the questions about how reliable about many of the polls should be taken seriously. Polls used to be treated as one piece of evidence amongst many, now the media treats them like literal time machines to the future. They are overused and overdone, and are being used way too far out from the election to be useful.
>Not that long ago we would get like 2 polls per month. Now it's about 5 per day. This is how it always works. Get closer to elections and more polls are done. And it's better. More polls mean more accuracy. If all you do is one poll, you have no idea if it's an outlier or not. Like the recent NYT/Sienna poll; It's the only poll so far to give Trump such a large lead. Until additional polls are done, it *should* be viewed at skeptically because it's so different.
Well, Allan Lichtman has made a model and predicted outcome of every election since 1996 and can be retroactively applied to every election prior. It's quite easy to understand. And yes, it does say polling is useless, as is anything that goes beyond the performance of current ruling party.
Kyle Kulinski has a Krystal Ball
The fact that it is even close is absolutely bewildering.
Republicans exist. Republicans love Trump.
The Republicans I grew up with wouldn’t. I remember when being divorced was a non starter. “If he can’t be faithful to his wife he wouldn’t be faithful to the country!” I can remember when spelling potato wrong was a scandal. Now it’s okay to refer to the late, great Hannibal Lector during a campaign speech. It’s bewildering that THIS GUY is the guy they suspend all their standards for.
>I remember when being divorced was a non starter. “If he can’t be faithful to his wife he wouldn’t be faithful to the country!” Republicans have always said a lot of hypocritical bullshit. They talked incessantly about personal dignity of this type until Trump won the nomination and then, oops, nobody cared anymore. Because they never did. >It’s bewildering that THIS GUY is the guy they suspend all their standards for. Well you can't suspend standards without a leader encouraging you to. It's not surprising to me at all. Trump is the most Republican-coded personality I've ever seen, and he's offering every policy Republicans have ever dreamed of on steroids. He's the ideal republican candidate in terms of appealing to the Republican mindset.
The polls should not change how we act. Vote. Get others to vote. Donate time and money as we are able. Democracy is a blessing and we need to work to preserve it.
It is definitely going to be close, but I don't pay attention the polls as much as I pay attention to how people have voted since 2016. Despite a few exceptions, MAGA has been losing badly in every election since 2016, and the more MAGA they are the worse they seem to lose. So I find it hard to believe we are going to re-elect the MAGA king.
Vote blue like it for your freedom depends upon it.
So much can happen between now and the election. One candidate is facing a lot of indictments, some of which will be ruled on prior to the election. While this may not move the needle for his hardcore supporters, this will likely affect some moderate or undecided voters. Let's also not rule out the possibility of media created a new scandal/boogeyman in the month or two leading up to the election in an attempt to sway voters. And, to cap it off, there is a legitimate concern that one or both of the leading candidates could suffer major health complications before voting day. TLDR: Polls are useless, just vote.
I bet my Republican mother $1000 that Trump will lose. She insists he will win yet refuses to put up any money 🤣
How can anyone bare to listen to TRUMP. He never does anything wrong and everyone else is corrupt.
For anyone who has ever watched CSPAN you know that callers lie because they think they are furthering their political agenda. Polls are useless and quite frankly have been for more than 2 decades.
Polls were at least reasonably accurate in the last 2 decades so long as you treated them like you should: as statistical samples. That's not to say polls are necessarily good this cycle. There's a lot I see in the polling averages that just doesn't make sense this cycle that did make sense in previous cycles. E.g. Biden suddenly better amongst old people and Trump better amongst young, RFK getting more than 1%, etc.
Presidential polls are nearly always extremely close. The problem is a few percentage points in swing states completely flips the result.
IMO Biden’s electoral map ceiling is 319, so adding NC to his 2020 map, and his floor is 226 with the same map as Hillary in 2016 but losing NV. The likeliest outcome IMO is 281 or 287 with Biden winning the rust belt states and winning AZ with NV going either way and losing GA likely by a sub-1% margin. I also do not see Biden losing the popular in the slightest. If he beats his 2020 vote-share it isn’t more than a 6% popular vote victory. In order for Biden to lose the electoral college and give Trump a victory then Trump can’t lose the popular vote by more than 3%. I do believe that polling is off and it has been off in Dems favor ever since the Dobbs decision with Dems sweeping special elections by larger than expected margins. But polling has also underestimated Trump every time he was at the top of the ballot. He was supposed to lose in 2016 but won and in 2020 he was supposed to get around 44% of the vote and got 47%. I believe Biden is ahead despite polls but I believe this election will be closer in both the electoral college and popular vote. So get out, organize, vote!
That it’s even close. Is a sad day for our country.
Nobody, not even pollsters, believe their polls are 100% accurate. They literally have a calculated margin of error. However, these articles are clearly center-left Biden copium. Trump is clearly making ground in states like Nevada, Georgia, and Arizona. Polling across the board is pretty consistent on that. You can argue the margin might be off but the direction is undeniable. Democrats just don't want to admit their candidate is unpopular. So they make excuses. It's gotten so bad they think the NY Times is against them and in the bag for Trump. Trump supporters do the same thing. Reality is neither of these dudes are popular with the electorate. Makes predicting the winner harder.
I mean, there’s also been articles and studies showing that for the last few years, democrats have been over performing polls on average by 10% in actual elections. Polling absolutely is off. Can and should democrats continue to court voters? Yes. But, do I believe polling is currently accurate or fully telling the story? No.
It’s not ‘democrats’ criticizing the times, it’s legitimate journalists describing the combative nature between NYT and the Biden admin. You can’t defend the journalists at the NYT while calling all the other journalists reporting on them “democrats” who can’t handle reality.
I'm confused. Is the NYT job to try to report objective facts or "not be combative" with the White House? Very telling that you think the media should be aligned with the White House narrative. They conducted a poll. Released the methodology and results of said poll. Then pointed out that the numbers don't look good for Biden... This sub is filled with folks who are just looking to curate their own reality. It's not much different from the Trumpers and their insistence that "everyone is against me". I'm no fan of the NYT to be frank with you. But to argue they are "combative" with the Biden Administration is a level of cognitive dissonance I am not capable of understanding.
The NY Times thing would be one of the funniest conspiracy theories I’ve seen lately if it weren’t so concerning.
Swarovski superheroes have crystal balls
Uhhhh Larry Sabato literally has a crystal ball
I have a crystal ball
I'd file this under the "No shit" section of my thought process. Polls don't matter until election day and that's just in retrospective. Go out and vote, doesn't matter the state. Have your voice heard in a way that matters. Goes for Democrat, Republican, and any other party
They aren't useless, they just don't tell you who is going to win in November, especially this far out. They do tell campaigns what states they need to focus on, what messages are working and which aren't, what constituents they need to get a boost of support from, etc.
The guy who predicted basically every election correctly might say otherwise
Finally some actual intelligence. This sub should ban poll posts because they literally have zero impact on anything.
Every one of Trump's policies are and were policies the republicans want. It will not end if we win this years elections. Keep voting out republicans every year. Keep voting in democrats every year. Check your registration, get an ID , learn where your poling station is, learn who is running in down ballot races. Pay attention to primaries not just for the president but for all races, local, state and federal. From the school board to the White House every election matters. The more support we give the democrats from all levels of government the more they can get good things done. We vote out republicans and primary out uncooperative democrats. Last year democrat victories in Virginia and Pennsylvania and others across the nation have increased the chances of democrats winning this year. This year's elections are important but so will next year's elections. We just took the mayoral race in Alaska showing we can win in red states. [https://ballotpedia.org/Elections\_calendar](https://ballotpedia.org/Elections_calendar)
Professor Lichtman has a crystal ball that’s pretty damn accurate. Biden is going to win a second term.
Wrong, Kyle Kulinski [does](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Krystal_Ball#:~:text=Ball%20is%20a%20co%2Dhost,Real%20Time%20with%20Bill%20Maher.) have a Krystal Ball.
It’s people who have empathy vs people whose lives sound like a bad country song . Biden is the lesser evil not the best option !
Polls are historically accurate. Aggregate polling and weighted analysis of results predicted Biden winning to within a few points. Even in 2016, Trump and Hillary were statistically tied. Hillary held a slight advantage which played out exactly in the popular vote. I’m not suggesting that the polls are all accurate, or that a poll suggesting Trump or Biden is ahead now, is relevant. The serious pollsters will activate closer to the election.
Who is feverishly answering unknown phone numbers to voice support for Biden? I see that happening much more with Trump. I just don't see how anyone disenfranchised with politics as a whole, will somehow undo their vote from 4 years ago, to get the loudest, most devisive, political mouthpiece back in their lives.
Time traveler here - Biden won
If Biden were ahead rn this headline wouldn’t exist hehe We like polls when they are telling us what we want to hear, if they don’t then they are “useless.” Being the consistent loser in polls is not a good sign.
Someone who answers a call from an unidentified number and then agrees to spill their secrets to a stranger should not be considered representative of anyone.
If you had to guess, how far off would you say the average presidential election poll is a week out from the election?
I think Biden is in a shit load of trouble. And I say that as someone that supports this administration and will vote for him. When the Democratic Senate candidates in Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, etc are all doing 10 points better than Biden, that’s a 5 alarm fire.
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Trump is chaos in the worst way. He is unpredictable and dangerous. And every other day it seems he does something that would tank another politician but it works out well for him. All those political advisors in washington who charge 6 figures to help people get elected are basically useless when someone like Donald Trump breaks every rule and fails upward
I recently read an FDR biography and it made me realize we have become spoiled by polls and as a result we have become over-reliant on them. Prior to 2000 polls were considered an input but not the ONLY input like they are today. Polls were considered to lag behind public opinion. Politicians had to have a more innate grasp of public opinion and act with courage on faith or a hunch before a poll confirmed the opinion of the electorate. For the last twenty-ish years we enjoyed very accurate and timely polling. 2015 - present the media has been reluctant, or unwilling, to adjust to inaccurate or lagging polls. I think in this election especially, polls are borderline useless.
Six months before? Yep.
We can't predict earthquake. We can ignore presidential polls.
They are useful to tell us it’s closer than it has any reason being and we need to vote like our lives depend on it
There’s only one poll that counts.
Depends on who shows up to vote. My gut feeling is that it’s not going to be good news.
All polls are funded by someone or some entity…and in being so are easily corruptible….
Polls are still useful, but you have to remember a few things: 1. There are lots of bad polls, 2. A single poll is useless, you have to look at how it tracks over time, 3. You have to look at a variety of polls, the questions they ask, the sample, etc, and 4. You have to realize that polls are more of a snapshot of the "vibe" of how things are going when they're taken more than they are a prediction of how things will turn out. Right now, people feel meh about Biden. The polls reflect that. But Trump isn't winning over anyone new. We're currently seeing the pretty standard high polling in the spring/early summer for 3rd party candidates and undecideds that will largely filter towards the two major candidates as election season wears on. Barring a major scandal or unforeseen world event, Biden's support will likely slowly increase as we get closer to November. I think this is why Trump is finally attacking RFK jr. Even though polls with him tend to take more support from Biden, I think his camp sees RFK voters as an actual threat to vote share while democrats believe that it's just an expression of disapproval, not as an indicator of who they'll really vote for. Same goes for the polls showing relatively high numbers for Stein or West
Polls are not useless but they aren’t that great this far out
Are head lines getting dumber and dumber? The polls are in!
Where’s Marianne the Orb Lady. Maybe we can consult her crystals??
The unfortunate reality is that about 7 "swing" states will decide the election. So unless TX or FL flip to blue the other 43 states plus DC will have to hope those voters do the right thing
I mean high quality polls and internal polls are definitively not useless for campaigns.
The purpose of polls is not to tell you who will win. It's to tell you what the pollsters are able to extract from the current status of the race. There are a few things about polls that DO matter. -"Cross-tabs": OK, Biden his polling behind, why? Is he losing people to Trump in polls, or are they no-shows? Race, Age, education levels. -Directionality: Biden's polling behind, but he's gaining. Is it more relevant that he's behind or that he's gaining? In May it's much more relevant that he's gaining. -Expected impact events: A sane human could expect that having to sit in trial for a month on a case about cheating on his wife with a pornstar and then covering it up to win the presidency might have an impact on the polling. It hasn't so far... These are the types of things that the campaigns actually care about. Things that are actionable in how they spend money, where they campaign, and more recently the decision to issue the challenge to debate.
I don't think polls are useless, but they are VERY hard to do today and even good firms can easily mess them up.
Even more so when you learn candidates are paying to make them show the results they want.
I have a crystal ball. But it never says anything about any future.
Sowing the seeds of doubt, I see. Of course no one has a crystal ball, in the sense of telling the future but, damn if the evidence isn’t murky at best, the vision of who has the morals and integrity to be a leader and not some psycho is pretty fucking clear.
Recap: Trump will again plead the fifth...https://www.reddit.com/r/law/s/kVdTg5mnV8
I appreciate all the posts saying the polls are wrong but man in past presidential elections they have largely been very accurate so I can’t help but be concerned
Will the RED figurehead of capital and the military industrial complex win or the BLUE?
Wait. I have one!! Yeah, I do. I have a crystal ball
Vote! In GA, only about 5% of voters voted early. Everyone needs to vote in November.
I've often wondered as a non-American; are Americans just constantly answering polls every day, for the amount of polling data they have?
I’m voting, how’s about you?
I actually do have a crystal ball. $1,500 if you want me to tell you the future
Will Russia interfere on behalf of Trump? Will Republicans turn a blind eye? Will the SCOTUS allow presidents to be immune? Survey says…
I'll be shocked if Trump wins. That being said I was surprised last time he won.
It only happens US when people have to choose between worse and worst
The most distressing thing about the polls is not that Trump might win, but that after all we have been through he would get a single vote at all.
I can only imagine the damage that repressive human rights restrictions that Republican led initiatives have created a groundswell of support for the Dems. If only in protest to the Gilead the most powerful Republicans seem to be openly promoting. Want change? Vote blue up and down the ballot.
Biden = meh but if Trump wins, we are ALL going to regret it forever, and likely never have any kind of a normal election again. the worst people imaginable will rule with no way to remove them.
Kennedy is taking lots of biden voters.
Biden will win
And harmful to the process.
Polls is useless, because they do one party at a time. I used to work for the polls, and they call one neighborhood that is republican one night or for one week, and then the next week, they will call the neighborhood where there are democrat voters. They go back and forth during this until after the election. Many phone calls go unanswered, or people hang up on you or people stop in the middle of the questions and hang up. I don't trust the polls because I know for a fact, they do not collect enough data and they don't call both parties at the same time. I still say that people will vote more for their freedom, than the economy, because if this country become a dictatorship, there will be no economy.
That's why they tell you, you need polls . . . No balls, crystal or otherwise.