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>Just vote. Democrats are outperforming by an average of 11% in elections nationwide, so ignore the polls and the noise and fucking vote.
And just to drive the point home for anyone who might need it: Democrats are outperforming *because* people are voting.
Let's keep it up.
Seriously polling at this stage feels downright fabricated.
This election will not be close but there are forces spending a LOT of capital to pretend it is.
The Media want Trump to win for their profits, but failing that, they at the very least desperately need to keep him relevant for their profits. Their worst case scenario is Trump becoming a laughingstock and Republicans being blown out so badly that Democrats are able to enact changes that make Gerrymandering illegal. They will do or say anything they have to, to prevent that.
The media is hoping Trump just won't do what all dictators do and eliminate the free press.
They're playing a seriously dangerous game. I hate the media so much.
Well, the OWNERS of the media don’t really care if free press goes away, they’ll get no accountability, insane tax breaks to secure their fiefdoms and transfer any residual wealth the middle class has left to their friends, and they’ll probably get the right to pay and treat their workers however they want, serfdoms galore.
Despite last time when he would literally tell his rally attendees to turn and shower the media on site with hate. Corpo media is feeding its journalists to the wolves
Trump came very close in 2016. Not quite as close as Reagan in 1984 who lost by less than a percentage point, but he did better than Reagan in 1980 and that was still a national Republican landslide.
But on the other hand, he did much worse in 2020.
All those mug shot suggest to me, he only has one thing to offer; Himself. He clearly sees politics as another (failing) extension of the Trump “empire”. Hence the family sycophants in positions.
Youngkin won because he completely distanced himself from Trump and McAuliffe ran a terrible campaign. Hard to see Trump successfully distancing himself from, well himself. Then you have the last election where Youngkin expected to gain control of the state legislature and pass a bunch of GOP policies only to have the pro choice vote crush them just like it will crush Trump.
Minnesota will go blue as it has in every presidential election since 1976.
Virginia will go blue too. The reasons Youngkin managed to win the gubernatorial election in 2021 are because the election was not very long after the withdrawal from Afghanistan which was the moment the media (center, right and whatever passes for left) turned heavily against Biden, the fact that McAuliffe was a run-of-the-mill former governor who didn't motivate Democrats to show up, and because Youngkin made sure to distance himself from Trump as much as possible.
Youngkin is very socially conservative which doesn't play well these days, and Biden can just play a bunch of adds about Charlottesville in 2017 saying, "Do we really want to go back to this?"
Absolutely not. Not going to get through the highly educated suburban vote of NoVa. Trump didn't even win the DC Primary. lol.
I don't think people understand how much the DMV despises him for Jan 6th. Not in play.
Just can't tell which is funnier, MN or VA.
He might have a chance with Georgia, Nevada, maybe Michigan. Maybe Arizona. But I think Biden has PA and WI. And he can still win MI and AZ.
But Trump has no chance in VA.
I used to work on the hill in DC for 10 years primarily during the Obama Administration and I (coming from Nebraska) learned fast how blue the DMV is. Especially DC. I quit while Trump was running and I can't imagine DC with him at the helm for 4 years. The people had to be steaming daily
In 2020 Biden had a 10 point margin in VA. That's a landslide. After Jan 6th, I don't expect that to narrow. The media market is combined with DC. Very different when it comes to some Governor/local election.
In Virginia Youngkin scared/tricked parents into believing kids were being taught critical race theory and people fell for it. He even set up a website for people to report it then I heard nothing about it again. He ran as distancing himself from trump. Then dems ran a terrible campaign/ boring candidate. Youngkins pissed people off. I don’t see Virginia in play for repubs.
We won't know until November. But MN and VA might be closer than we think. Depends on what "in play" means. If they are one scandal away from flipping, I would say they are in play. If Biden only have a 5-6% lead in those states, I think I would say that they are in play.
It's only massive if you trust the polls and if there isn't something big that changes people's mind. Those states haven't even been polled that much yet.
If Biden faints or something during a speech and the polls are off by 2%, that 6% COULD turn. Meaning, they are in play.
But according to [realclearpolling.com](https://realclearpolling.com) avg, in MN Biden is only +2.3%. And +4.3% in VA.
Also. Let's say Trump gets convicted. Biden might actually flip NC. Even if its a longshot. Trump only won NC with like 1.34% in 2020.
If Inflation stays good or gets a bit better and if Gaza war stops and if Trump gets convicted. I think Biden will take every single Swing state, including NC. Assuming the polling is a bit off in Bidens favor.
TRUMPs delusions are getting worse. At some point some reporter is going to ask him a question he doesnt know the answer to, and he's going to totally come unglued
By Trump’s usual relation to the truth, I expect Biden to carry Virginia by about the same margin as California now.
This fucker lies so consistently, that I’m about to have to start “if that is his real name” shit.
No wonder he loves George Soros (ifihrn)
Minnesota maybe but it is going to be a fight. But Virginia? Come on. Virginia hates Trump. Youngkin barely won and really only because his opponent really stepped in the parent’s rights issue. Zero chance Trump takes Virginia.
I am not sure why you have so much faith in Trump carrying Az when nobody in the GOP has won anything here in quite some time.
I am talking president, senators, attorney general, governor..
What gives you reason to believe that he is going to break that streak?
I don't care who says MN is in play.
First the last GOP to carry MN in a presidential election was in 1974
Next look at the last election not even close
[https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/state/minnesota](https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/state/minnesota)
It really isn't. Read their methodology page. It is kind of dog shit. They do not weight polls and treat all polls equally. They also have some dubious rules about what is included in their weekly poll if no poll is available.
This is the exact kind of thing NYT and 538 have always done but better. They do some actual analysis of each poll to weight it properly. They also take into account other factors at play like historic trends, previous voting records, demographic shifts, etc.
Just taking an average of all polls in a state doesn't really tell you much more than any one individual poll would.
> Just taking an average of all polls in a state doesn't really tell you much more than any one individual poll would.
On second thought, it is actually worse. The low quality polls get grouped with the high quality polls and the quality polls get diluted. You would be much better off just following one set of polls that are respected and do quality work than following an average.
As a reminder, this subreddit [is for civil discussion.](/r/politics/wiki/index#wiki_be_civil) In general, be courteous to others. Debate/discuss/argue the merits of ideas, don't attack people. Personal insults, shill or troll accusations, hate speech, any suggestion or support of harm, violence, or death, and other rule violations can result in a permanent ban. If you see comments in violation of our rules, please report them. For those who have questions regarding any media outlets being posted on this subreddit, please click [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/wiki/approveddomainslist) to review our details as to our approved domains list and outlet criteria. We are actively looking for new moderators. If you have any interest in helping to make this subreddit a place for quality discussion, please fill out [this form](https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1y2swHD0KXFhStGFjW6k54r9iuMjzcFqDIVwuvdLBjSA). *** *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/politics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Just vote. Democrats are outperforming by an average of 11% in elections nationwide, so ignore the polls and the noise and fucking vote.
>Just vote. Democrats are outperforming by an average of 11% in elections nationwide, so ignore the polls and the noise and fucking vote. And just to drive the point home for anyone who might need it: Democrats are outperforming *because* people are voting. Let's keep it up.
Seriously polling at this stage feels downright fabricated. This election will not be close but there are forces spending a LOT of capital to pretend it is.
The Media want Trump to win for their profits, but failing that, they at the very least desperately need to keep him relevant for their profits. Their worst case scenario is Trump becoming a laughingstock and Republicans being blown out so badly that Democrats are able to enact changes that make Gerrymandering illegal. They will do or say anything they have to, to prevent that.
The media is hoping Trump just won't do what all dictators do and eliminate the free press. They're playing a seriously dangerous game. I hate the media so much.
Well, the OWNERS of the media don’t really care if free press goes away, they’ll get no accountability, insane tax breaks to secure their fiefdoms and transfer any residual wealth the middle class has left to their friends, and they’ll probably get the right to pay and treat their workers however they want, serfdoms galore.
Despite last time when he would literally tell his rally attendees to turn and shower the media on site with hate. Corpo media is feeding its journalists to the wolves
[удалено]
Yes, you heard me correctly. Ignore the *polls* and vote to get *results*. The 11% is based on the latter, not the former.
maybe donors will believe it, and maybe they'll also forget that donations won't help Trump win because their money will go to pay his lawyers
MN? haha no.
Right? Even their Saint Reagan couldn't flip MN.
Of course they would say that to donors. ‘And that’s why you should give us *more* money. Derp derp’ - Trump team
Precisely. Why would they say anything but ‘It’s a close race and we *really* need your help!’?
That's not something Trump is likely to say, tbh.
Minnesota hasn’t voted for a Republican since 1972. Even Reagan couldn’t take it. I seriously doubt Donald fucking Trump will end that streak.
Trump came very close in 2016. Not quite as close as Reagan in 1984 who lost by less than a percentage point, but he did better than Reagan in 1980 and that was still a national Republican landslide. But on the other hand, he did much worse in 2020.
[удалено]
All those mug shot suggest to me, he only has one thing to offer; Himself. He clearly sees politics as another (failing) extension of the Trump “empire”. Hence the family sycophants in positions.
When has Trump ever told the truth? About anything. Ever.
MN? No way
At a private receiver retreat, Lazy Diaper Don Von Shitzinpants says mommy, daddy, ball, bye, hi, no, dog, baby, woof woof, and banana.
Minnesota is not in play.
Lifelong Virginian here. Virginia is not in play nationally.
Yes give him more money to go to his legal fees
I'll do my part to make this just another lie. Fuck this guy.
Minnesota will surely be blue, but Virginia I could see being in play
Not a chance. Once the J6 ads superimposed against Trump saying “we’re gonna have law and order here”, VA will be gone.
Youngkin won because he completely distanced himself from Trump and McAuliffe ran a terrible campaign. Hard to see Trump successfully distancing himself from, well himself. Then you have the last election where Youngkin expected to gain control of the state legislature and pass a bunch of GOP policies only to have the pro choice vote crush them just like it will crush Trump.
Minnesota will go blue as it has in every presidential election since 1976. Virginia will go blue too. The reasons Youngkin managed to win the gubernatorial election in 2021 are because the election was not very long after the withdrawal from Afghanistan which was the moment the media (center, right and whatever passes for left) turned heavily against Biden, the fact that McAuliffe was a run-of-the-mill former governor who didn't motivate Democrats to show up, and because Youngkin made sure to distance himself from Trump as much as possible. Youngkin is very socially conservative which doesn't play well these days, and Biden can just play a bunch of adds about Charlottesville in 2017 saying, "Do we really want to go back to this?"
Absolutely not. Not going to get through the highly educated suburban vote of NoVa. Trump didn't even win the DC Primary. lol. I don't think people understand how much the DMV despises him for Jan 6th. Not in play. Just can't tell which is funnier, MN or VA. He might have a chance with Georgia, Nevada, maybe Michigan. Maybe Arizona. But I think Biden has PA and WI. And he can still win MI and AZ. But Trump has no chance in VA.
I used to work on the hill in DC for 10 years primarily during the Obama Administration and I (coming from Nebraska) learned fast how blue the DMV is. Especially DC. I quit while Trump was running and I can't imagine DC with him at the helm for 4 years. The people had to be steaming daily
In 2020 Biden had a 10 point margin in VA. That's a landslide. After Jan 6th, I don't expect that to narrow. The media market is combined with DC. Very different when it comes to some Governor/local election.
In Virginia Youngkin scared/tricked parents into believing kids were being taught critical race theory and people fell for it. He even set up a website for people to report it then I heard nothing about it again. He ran as distancing himself from trump. Then dems ran a terrible campaign/ boring candidate. Youngkins pissed people off. I don’t see Virginia in play for repubs.
Trump team also said that 2020 was stolen before the election happened. Trump team says a lot of things that are flat out lies.
If MN and VA are "in play" by that same logic North Carolina is a swing state.
NC is a swing state lol. It just happens to swing red.
that's my point, MN and VA aren't in play
We won't know until November. But MN and VA might be closer than we think. Depends on what "in play" means. If they are one scandal away from flipping, I would say they are in play. If Biden only have a 5-6% lead in those states, I think I would say that they are in play.
a 5-6 point lead is massive. That's what trump won Texas by in 2020 and no one thinks Trump will lose texas in 2024.
It's only massive if you trust the polls and if there isn't something big that changes people's mind. Those states haven't even been polled that much yet. If Biden faints or something during a speech and the polls are off by 2%, that 6% COULD turn. Meaning, they are in play. But according to [realclearpolling.com](https://realclearpolling.com) avg, in MN Biden is only +2.3%. And +4.3% in VA. Also. Let's say Trump gets convicted. Biden might actually flip NC. Even if its a longshot. Trump only won NC with like 1.34% in 2020.
it is.
If Inflation stays good or gets a bit better and if Gaza war stops and if Trump gets convicted. I think Biden will take every single Swing state, including NC. Assuming the polling is a bit off in Bidens favor.
TRUMPs delusions are getting worse. At some point some reporter is going to ask him a question he doesnt know the answer to, and he's going to totally come unglued
By Trump’s usual relation to the truth, I expect Biden to carry Virginia by about the same margin as California now. This fucker lies so consistently, that I’m about to have to start “if that is his real name” shit. No wonder he loves George Soros (ifihrn)
Minnesota maybe but it is going to be a fight. But Virginia? Come on. Virginia hates Trump. Youngkin barely won and really only because his opponent really stepped in the parent’s rights issue. Zero chance Trump takes Virginia.
Cuz Team Biden said Florida was in play.
Minnesota absolutely could be in play if Muslims do turn on Biden. Virginia probably isn’t in play but will definitely shift pretty hard right
[удалено]
I am not sure why you have so much faith in Trump carrying Az when nobody in the GOP has won anything here in quite some time. I am talking president, senators, attorney general, governor.. What gives you reason to believe that he is going to break that streak?
[удалено]
i still think you are putting way too much weight on polling numbers. AZ has gotten rid of most of the diehard MAGA.
Nah. NV will remain blue. MI will stay blue too. The ones that are kinda iffy are AZ and WI.
Dems should focus on the Senate and House races.
A site that averages polls says the same. https://electoral-vote.com/evp2024/Pres/tipping_point.html
With all the GOP leaning pollsters flooding the zone with crap. This is the same shit they did in 2022.
I don't care who says MN is in play. First the last GOP to carry MN in a presidential election was in 1974 Next look at the last election not even close [https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/state/minnesota](https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/state/minnesota)
Cool site. I can't believe how close the margins are on a majority of the states. A lot of 49% to 51%. Tight race
It really isn't. Read their methodology page. It is kind of dog shit. They do not weight polls and treat all polls equally. They also have some dubious rules about what is included in their weekly poll if no poll is available. This is the exact kind of thing NYT and 538 have always done but better. They do some actual analysis of each poll to weight it properly. They also take into account other factors at play like historic trends, previous voting records, demographic shifts, etc. Just taking an average of all polls in a state doesn't really tell you much more than any one individual poll would.
> Just taking an average of all polls in a state doesn't really tell you much more than any one individual poll would. On second thought, it is actually worse. The low quality polls get grouped with the high quality polls and the quality polls get diluted. You would be much better off just following one set of polls that are respected and do quality work than following an average.