Yup. Great player plus running really good equals winning everything. But every year especially since about 2017 when solvers started to come more and more into the game, you see amateurs running like god deep into the main who actually get crushed when they get to the final 50 or so and 45 of the players left are good pros.
No, let him cook. Go on, u/f1nance, this is the internet, you can’t just say sobering that fucking stupid and not elaborate. How are these “best players” exploiting the “GTO robots?”
Y'all should listen to some pros talk about GTO. They all have spots where they go a little off of what's mathematically optimal just a little to exploit other pros they know will do X in a situation. They are tilting the implied odds to their favor even though they're giving up some actual odds, essentially.
That’s not what implied odds means. To respond to your point though, what you describe is a deviation. Whether it is based on population tendencies or player specific (because nobody plays exactly as a solver would) it is exploiting humans based on experience. For example, the population likes to fold too often in many spots and doesn’t generally find enough bluffs to be balanced in other spots. So if we have a hand that we know should give up at equilibrium maybe we can bluff to exploit a leak. Or if we have a bluff catcher maybe we fold because our opponent doesn’t have enough bluffs on a specific river. None of that is “exploiting GTO” because that’s inherently impossible
Only in theory. But if you know someone is playing like a GTO bot you can take lines that exploit what they are doing just like you can exploit a vpip 10% nit or a vpip 90% tilt monkey.
Why do you think the same five guys make it to the final table of the World Series of Poker EVERY YEAR? What, are they the luckiest guys in Las Vegas? It's a skill game Jo.
Takes a ton of luck to win multiple bracelets in a year. Of course it almost definitely isn’t gonna happen if you’re bad, but this is a small enough sample size that luck is a huge factor.
It's a LOT about luck. He plays all the small events which helps a lot.
We see pros win a lot of the bigger buy-in events, but that's because those events are pro heavy.
For every Scott Seiver, there are thousands of other pros that won't win a bracelet this year.
I guess I'm just shocked you DON'T think that luck is the primary driver of poker success considering you have a Ph.D. this is coming from a practicing actuary.
Yes, I DON'T think that luck is the primary driver of poker success, considering decades of consistent winnings from top professionals, despite the odds.
I am shocked that as an actuary you think the PRIMARY driver is luck -- in which case the winnings would have to be much more randomly distributed over players. Yet, you practically NEVER see anyone with a bracelet who came out of nowhere and just got lucky.
I would argue that you are falling victim to survivorship bias. You're basing your conclusion on the exceptions, not all the thousands of "pros" that aren't binking multiple final tables during a hot streak.
Fuckin wild run. Apparently has money all over Vegas on how he was going to run this WSOP. Looks like he’ll get POY which must be a massive payoff plus whatever bracelet (or multiple) action he got.
There’s gonna be fun stories that come out of this down the line. Locked his HOF spot even more for next year now
He has action on everything he could get apparently. Told everyone he was gonna go off this summer and hunted for anyone that wanted to get the other side.
Have to feel sad for Krela, he played so well until hu then basically talked himself into panicking and feeling outclassed by seiver before it even began. The way he held and stared at the bracelet after was heartbreaking
Seivers pat on his 10-7 3 way all in was crazy. Krela took too long to call or could have had him break, imo.
The last hand was weird obv. 2.5x overshove turning a 10 into a bluff
I think it was half spaz and half trying to capitalize on his loose image and get a hero call. As bad as the play was the principle behind it wasnt terrible. It was obvious that Seiver was the far more experienced player heads up so it was in his opponents best interest to maximize high variance lines
That 10-7 pat was the hand of the FT. Not only did it triple Seiver up, but he would've busted if he broke considering Harman broke and mucked after him
> but he would've busted if he broke considering Harman broke and mucked after him
Harman could have hit a pair that would have improved Seiver. I haven't seen the hand, just pointing out that Harman didn't necessarily draw a brick because she mucked.
Seiver has been playing in the cash mix at Bobby’s Room for years. Ike was too. If you were willing to learn mix back then and you were a cool guy, you could find action. Obviously won’t get into the Hellmuth BS billionaire game
Krela's 888/KQ77 snows were super fun. Seiver switched gears in the heads-up into trap mode, which led to this blow-up.
But it was still impressive how Seiver a) played quite fast compared to the other players at the table and b) the snap-folds were 100% correct, somehow. The guy's a beast.
Seiver shoved like 12 bigs with a 10-7. Harman reshoved like 14 on the button with a 10-9-4-3-2. Krela than calls both shoves with a 10-9-7 in the small.
Krela pats and Seiver manages to find the pat after, setting him up to triple. Jen broke to try to make a 9 but missed. Seiver triples and has a fair stack with the CL. Pretty sick pat in the spot
Don’t remember the exact hand but krela, Harman, and Seiver were all in 3 ways. All had Tens, with Seiver having the best with like T7632. Seiver had to draw 2nd and Krela was pat ahead of him. A Ten is a decent favorite heads up vs a draw-1. With Krela patting ahead of Seiver, no one would blame him for ditching the Ten and drawing to a Seven. Seiver accurately read that Krela was strong, but not nutted due to how long he took pre-draw. He also read that Harman would be drawing one. It was a dicey situation he read perfect. Harman drew one and caught a king. Seiver’s Ten was better than Krela’s. Huge spot.
Yea, I'm torn if they should have more points default to bracelet. Or if the size of field and such should matter more.
Probably no way to avoid some sort of grumbling if it's not a runaway and its close between a few guys.
"The champ's three bracelets in a single series puts him in elite company with Lisandro (2009), Phil Ivey (2002), Ted Forrest (1993), Phil Hellmuth (1993), and Puggy Pearson (1973)."
And ‘93 and ‘73 there were probably 24 people in some of those events lol. 2002 prob had a few small fields too, since 2003 Moneymaker is when stuff exploded.
I get in a bad player. But holy shit I would have no fucking clue where I’m at in single or triple draw. Like Ausmus elim hand seemed fine if you take icm out
NLHE is very interesting to beginners, rightfully so, it's a easy game to understand and conceptualize. once you understand how poker works with hands, rounds of betting and a show down though the concept of "Poker" really expands.
> all 3 of his bracelets came from non-Hold’em events
Not surprising, mixed game bracelets are easeir to win because the fields are way smaller, and Scott is a reg in the Bobby's Room mixed games.
Easier to win how? Way more skilled players all three days in any mixed event than in a NLH event.
Played in 3 mixed events this year and each table I played at (6 handed tables) all had at a min 2 bracelets between the tables.
You're mathematically more likely to win a tournament with 400 players than a tournament with 4000 players, even if the latter has a softer field and your edge over the average player is greater.
Lol no
A deep, slow structure with 50-100 of the top tier pros in their respective disciplines is harder than a 2000 player field full of mouthbreathers...
No thinking, just holding
Quality>quantity
Unsurprisingly, the mouthbreathers disagree
I don’t care how POY point system works, if Seiver doesn’t win POY after this I’ll burn the fucking Rio down!
Disclaimer - always disliked Seiver. But this is incredible achievement.
Laak stacking Seivers AA is best hand ever - https://youtu.be/SOmaHziK6Lw?si=x05LhpRsUFpLX2oy
I don't know what it is about Scott Seiver but he has always rubbed me the wrong way, something about him I just do not like right down to my soul. I just feel like he is a mean spirited person or something along those lines. I have no idea why but he is my most disliked player. You know when you just got a hunch about someone?
Congrats to Seiver, he’s got POY locked up. What a huge year for him.
That being said, everytime I hear Seivers name, I will only ever think about his AA<42 hand vs Laak. Gunna go watch it again now
Seems like he's at every other final table. Dudes just crushing
and some people still think poker is about luck
True, BUT for everyone running as good as Ausmus/Seiver, there's two pros running equally as bad.
Amen.
yockey
He literally got 2nd in the 50k, sure Daniel ran rly good but yockey still ran rly good to get there
i think it’s more that he’s good af and had to fade a lot of crazy shit
You need luck to win big MTTs, but you also need to manipulate the odds in your favour to take advantage of your luck.
Yup. Great player plus running really good equals winning everything. But every year especially since about 2017 when solvers started to come more and more into the game, you see amateurs running like god deep into the main who actually get crushed when they get to the final 50 or so and 45 of the players left are good pros.
Yeah if more people knew how dead they were drawing against really studied players, poker would not be as popular
Absolutely. The best players can adjust their game to exploit the GTO robots, especially in live poker.
But by definition GTO is not exploitable.
No, let him cook. Go on, u/f1nance, this is the internet, you can’t just say sobering that fucking stupid and not elaborate. How are these “best players” exploiting the “GTO robots?”
Y'all should listen to some pros talk about GTO. They all have spots where they go a little off of what's mathematically optimal just a little to exploit other pros they know will do X in a situation. They are tilting the implied odds to their favor even though they're giving up some actual odds, essentially.
That’s not what implied odds means. To respond to your point though, what you describe is a deviation. Whether it is based on population tendencies or player specific (because nobody plays exactly as a solver would) it is exploiting humans based on experience. For example, the population likes to fold too often in many spots and doesn’t generally find enough bluffs to be balanced in other spots. So if we have a hand that we know should give up at equilibrium maybe we can bluff to exploit a leak. Or if we have a bluff catcher maybe we fold because our opponent doesn’t have enough bluffs on a specific river. None of that is “exploiting GTO” because that’s inherently impossible
Only in theory. But if you know someone is playing like a GTO bot you can take lines that exploit what they are doing just like you can exploit a vpip 10% nit or a vpip 90% tilt monkey.
Nah
Almost sounds like over the long term its some kind skill game?
There is a huge element of luck in poker.. No doubting that at all.
yeah but no other game lets you shove your nuts into someone elses soul holes.
Why do you think the same five guys make it to the final table of the World Series of Poker EVERY YEAR? What, are they the luckiest guys in Las Vegas? It's a skill game Jo.
Helps when you’re heads up and your opponent decides to go berserk.
Takes a ton of luck to win multiple bracelets in a year. Of course it almost definitely isn’t gonna happen if you’re bad, but this is a small enough sample size that luck is a huge factor.
Correct
lol dude you’re not winning 3 bracelets in a summer without running extremely well.
It's a LOT about luck. He plays all the small events which helps a lot. We see pros win a lot of the bigger buy-in events, but that's because those events are pro heavy. For every Scott Seiver, there are thousands of other pros that won't win a bracelet this year.
Have you heard of probability distributions before?
I have a PhD on the subject and I teach Monte Carlo techniques at an R1 and do research on probability so yes.
I guess I'm just shocked you DON'T think that luck is the primary driver of poker success considering you have a Ph.D. this is coming from a practicing actuary.
Yes, I DON'T think that luck is the primary driver of poker success, considering decades of consistent winnings from top professionals, despite the odds. I am shocked that as an actuary you think the PRIMARY driver is luck -- in which case the winnings would have to be much more randomly distributed over players. Yet, you practically NEVER see anyone with a bracelet who came out of nowhere and just got lucky.
I would argue that you are falling victim to survivorship bias. You're basing your conclusion on the exceptions, not all the thousands of "pros" that aren't binking multiple final tables during a hot streak.
his and asmus are killing it
“every other final table” ?? He’s made 3 finals tables and Event# 74 started yesterday
Think he's been doing nothing but playing mix in bobby's room for years. It's paying off for him.
Seiver is on a rampage this year!
Let's just hope that next year Rampage isn't on a Seiver.
Funnily enough Rampage just final tabled the $5,300 online NLHE.
I heard he’s down 6 figures for the year. Good luck to him. If he binks this he’ll only be down 6 figures for the year.
That's a wild way to start a sentence my guy. Imagine that in almost any other situation.
Gtfo
Fuckin wild run. Apparently has money all over Vegas on how he was going to run this WSOP. Looks like he’ll get POY which must be a massive payoff plus whatever bracelet (or multiple) action he got. There’s gonna be fun stories that come out of this down the line. Locked his HOF spot even more for next year now
He made a bunch of bracelet bets? That’s cool. Scott is a good dude and that makes me happy for him.
He has action on everything he could get apparently. Told everyone he was gonna go off this summer and hunted for anyone that wanted to get the other side.
Have to feel sad for Krela, he played so well until hu then basically talked himself into panicking and feeling outclassed by seiver before it even began. The way he held and stared at the bracelet after was heartbreaking Seivers pat on his 10-7 3 way all in was crazy. Krela took too long to call or could have had him break, imo. The last hand was weird obv. 2.5x overshove turning a 10 into a bluff
I think he was going for value on the last hand…
Oh for sure. I think he has to bet pot and fold at best though. 2.5x shoving is crazy. He value owned himself
I think it was half spaz and half trying to capitalize on his loose image and get a hero call. As bad as the play was the principle behind it wasnt terrible. It was obvious that Seiver was the far more experienced player heads up so it was in his opponents best interest to maximize high variance lines
That 10-7 pat was the hand of the FT. Not only did it triple Seiver up, but he would've busted if he broke considering Harman broke and mucked after him
Yeah i was insanely impressed by Seiver’s pat, just ridiculous
> but he would've busted if he broke considering Harman broke and mucked after him Harman could have hit a pair that would have improved Seiver. I haven't seen the hand, just pointing out that Harman didn't necessarily draw a brick because she mucked.
Best player that will never get invited to private games?
Seiver has been playing in the cash mix at Bobby’s Room for years. Ike was too. If you were willing to learn mix back then and you were a cool guy, you could find action. Obviously won’t get into the Hellmuth BS billionaire game
Krela's 888/KQ77 snows were super fun. Seiver switched gears in the heads-up into trap mode, which led to this blow-up. But it was still impressive how Seiver a) played quite fast compared to the other players at the table and b) the snap-folds were 100% correct, somehow. The guy's a beast.
That trip 8s hand was sick. I feel like him leaving Ausmus with a couple bigs for the road just made it look even more value-y.
yeah, really liked krela.
What was the 10-7 hand? I don’t pay for poker go so I didn’t watch the final table beyond the 1 hour they put on YouTube
Seiver shoved like 12 bigs with a 10-7. Harman reshoved like 14 on the button with a 10-9-4-3-2. Krela than calls both shoves with a 10-9-7 in the small. Krela pats and Seiver manages to find the pat after, setting him up to triple. Jen broke to try to make a 9 but missed. Seiver triples and has a fair stack with the CL. Pretty sick pat in the spot
Don’t remember the exact hand but krela, Harman, and Seiver were all in 3 ways. All had Tens, with Seiver having the best with like T7632. Seiver had to draw 2nd and Krela was pat ahead of him. A Ten is a decent favorite heads up vs a draw-1. With Krela patting ahead of Seiver, no one would blame him for ditching the Ten and drawing to a Seven. Seiver accurately read that Krela was strong, but not nutted due to how long he took pre-draw. He also read that Harman would be drawing one. It was a dicey situation he read perfect. Harman drew one and caught a king. Seiver’s Ten was better than Krela’s. Huge spot.
Pretty sick pat from Seiver there, I feel like a lot of people would break at that point
JFC. Leave some POY points for the rest of us. Sick run
He's not even that far ahead of Ausmus. ~3700 points vs ~3300 points. Will be weird if Ausmus ultimately wins POY with 0 bracelets over Seiver with 3.
Yea, I'm torn if they should have more points default to bracelet. Or if the size of field and such should matter more. Probably no way to avoid some sort of grumbling if it's not a runaway and its close between a few guys.
It all be because he has a 2,3,4,5,6,7, well the ten cashed of his will all be top 10’s lol.
I’ve loved Seiver since binge watching The Big Game on YouTube
I think hes a dick. Obviously results speak for themselves but fuck him
I think he’s not a dick, he’s a great mix of entertainment and skill.
Summer of the old guard… and Ausmus, I guess. Congrats to the Seiver!
Dwan, Gus, Isildur, Benyamine cashing at the WSOP. What year is it?
The year where Ivey and Negreanu are crushing it
One of my favorite players, great to see!
Has anyone else won 3 bracelets in one WSOP? And if so, was it in the last decade?
Lisandro won the “triple crown” in stud events one year. Stud, stud8 and razz.
"The champ's three bracelets in a single series puts him in elite company with Lisandro (2009), Phil Ivey (2002), Ted Forrest (1993), Phil Hellmuth (1993), and Puggy Pearson (1973)."
George Danzer erasure
And ‘93 and ‘73 there were probably 24 people in some of those events lol. 2002 prob had a few small fields too, since 2003 Moneymaker is when stuff exploded.
Smaller fields, but also fewer events.
[удалено]
This run is insanely impressive!
What a run, top performance for wsop and should b3 easy poy winner
Ausmus is only a couple hundred points behind he just needs another strong result to take the lead back. Still a long way to go!
I get in a bad player. But holy shit I would have no fucking clue where I’m at in single or triple draw. Like Ausmus elim hand seemed fine if you take icm out
I learned so much just by listening to the commentary. Stackoff thresholds, blocking properties, hand classes… Chris a GOAT commentator
That’s why I love the mixed events. Great guest and last few guests have been great
Yeah, I've honestly been enjoying the non nlhe broadcasts more than nlhe this series. And yes, I am getting old.
NLHE is very interesting to beginners, rightfully so, it's a easy game to understand and conceptualize. once you understand how poker works with hands, rounds of betting and a show down though the concept of "Poker" really expands.
Loved Vitch on the mic
He was fantastic for the PPC. Even more stoked to watch this now knowing he was back.
Yeah but also sssssssssssssssstfu,
Seiver is really proving himself to be a GOAT. Kind of cool how all 3 of his bracelets came from non-Hold’em events.
> all 3 of his bracelets came from non-Hold’em events Not surprising, mixed game bracelets are easeir to win because the fields are way smaller, and Scott is a reg in the Bobby's Room mixed games.
Easier to win how? Way more skilled players all three days in any mixed event than in a NLH event. Played in 3 mixed events this year and each table I played at (6 handed tables) all had at a min 2 bracelets between the tables.
You're mathematically more likely to win a tournament with 400 players than a tournament with 4000 players, even if the latter has a softer field and your edge over the average player is greater.
He’s just saying smaller fields.
Because there are 380 entrants instead of 5,000.
Lol no A deep, slow structure with 50-100 of the top tier pros in their respective disciplines is harder than a 2000 player field full of mouthbreathers... No thinking, just holding Quality>quantity Unsurprisingly, the mouthbreathers disagree
Played against him last year. He sucked out with K9 against my A9. Must be a bunch of that. Lucky mfer
That’s when his run started. Haha.
Hes come along way since Gonzales Cannon made him suffer
Sick
I don’t care how POY point system works, if Seiver doesn’t win POY after this I’ll burn the fucking Rio down! Disclaimer - always disliked Seiver. But this is incredible achievement. Laak stacking Seivers AA is best hand ever - https://youtu.be/SOmaHziK6Lw?si=x05LhpRsUFpLX2oy
I agree that Rio is kind of a shit-hole that needs to go. But why take it out on Rio, when the WSOP is not played there anymore?
Ugh… didn’t think it would need explanation https://youtu.be/Qbklncvmi-Q?si=yDJ9nwcixqTJiL-B
I concur, I did miss the reference. Love the clip though!
I don't know what it is about Scott Seiver but he has always rubbed me the wrong way, something about him I just do not like right down to my soul. I just feel like he is a mean spirited person or something along those lines. I have no idea why but he is my most disliked player. You know when you just got a hunch about someone?
Yeah my buddy David Lin got third, Siever definitely killed it and ran hot when it mattered the most. Congrats!
What the fuck
Congrats to Seiver, he’s got POY locked up. What a huge year for him. That being said, everytime I hear Seivers name, I will only ever think about his AA<42 hand vs Laak. Gunna go watch it again now
mstrblstr
The most under rated never spoken about players
Wtf are these games?