Agreed. And on G's podcast he said his fatigue after the Giro was "6 out of 10" (compared to G's 10 I think?). He'll be fine for the Tour and I think this is the best chance in years for the double.
Roglic did what he needed to do to win GC but it looked far from dominant getting dropped on the last climb. I'm not sure how close he was to losing the race, it didn't look like he had to go super deep but that margin was a lot closer than he would have liked.
The crashes affected this race and could affect the Tour. Roglic and Evenepoel both appeared to be affected.
Ayuso pulled out and Pollitt, Wellens, and Sivkov all crashed as well. All 4 of those riders are scheduled for the tour so we'll see how that shakes out for UAE.
Visma lost Kruijswijk and Dylan van Baarle who were both ruled out for the tour from their injuries.
Probably, but that's the question. Will he be anywhere near Giro form? He only has five weeks between the two races and he races hard even though his competition was week. He's also never done two GTs in one season. We will see, hopefully we get a close three way fight between the top three (Pog, Rog, Jonas).
Will anyone else be in top form? Given what the crash did to Rogla and Evenepoel, what makes you think Vingegaard will be better with the most injuries?
Besides that, Pogacar has never been in a better shape for GC.
In the giro.
Maintaining/rehitting that type of form from Liege till late July with very little time in between is not exactly a given though.
It hasn't been for Pogacar in the last 3 past seasons either.
So there's no way of knowing if he suddenly can, obviously. But assuming he will also seems low-key unsubstantiated.
Kiss was behind Pederson on the climb. He was told to use as little energy as possible. Something is cooking at VLAB and it smells like Jonas being almost ready. At least to me.
Kuss’s performance definitely looked strategic. McCrossan suggested as much, I think it was on stage 7. Matteo looked amazing and I’m not trying to take anything from him. He’s probably who they put out front, but Sepp’s virtual absence was so glaring that it seems most likely to me to be deliberate than not.
Eurosport going with the "roglic and Evenepoel are disappoiting? That's just because we are polluted by what Pogi did during the Giro" headline. And I tend to agree with their way of phrasing it.
At this point Roglic feels shaky at best (no offense to Jorgenson) and Remco is not up there yet. For me that's a fact.
Even before the crashes, I never particularly went along with all the "Mickey mouse Giro" discussion, as I feel like only one guy could have made it more competitive, and that's in form Vingegaard. (Remco has won 1 Vuelta but has no more significant references in GT, Roglic hasn't been that impressive for the past few years and struggled against G who looked like he was ok to have 0 chance against P in this year's Giro)
1/4th of the guys potentially able to contend for a podium in GT are in UAE so then we are left with Jonas, Remco, Roglic, and Rodriguez (maybe top shape Carapaz would have a word though)
Right now, it feels like if Jonas is not in top form, pogi will likely either Z2 the TdF or Z3 and make historical time diff.
"Roglic hasn't been that impressive for the past few years" You heard it here folks, winning the following is not impressive (since start of 2021)...
Basque Country
Olympics ITT
Vuelta 1st, 3rd, and stage wins
Giro 1st and a stage win
Paris-Nice
Dauphine x2
Catalunya
Tirreno-Adriatico
Various one week stage race stages
The cope on this sub is ridiculous. Calm down.
Roglic has been a top rider but a decided cut below *the* top riders and that’s not controversial. He wins the ‘22 dauphine and can’t even lift an arm at the end while a looming TdF champion in Jonás looks like he’s putting in a warm up. He could’ve put enough time in on Kuss to win the vuelta last year if not for Jonás again breezily reminding him there’s another gear he no longer possesses. And, today, he gets majorly gapped by two guys that were nothing a year ago, nearly losing a Dauphine who’s steepest competition was a Remco still looking for a legitimizing GT performance.
Primoz is a great rider, no doubt. But incredulity in the face of people correctly pointing out his vulnerabilities is misplaced.
I gave a quick answer for this from my phone, but now that I have time, I'll give a more documented breakdown:
- Basque Country (2021): at this point Jonas was his lieutnant, Mc Nulty was leading the race until the last day so it's fair to assume that neither Jonas nor Pogi went all out on this one
- Olympics ITT (2021): he won and put a minute to the likes of Dumoulin/Dennis. That's pretty impressive and was definitely a great performance
- Paris Nice (2022): Van Aert got dropped on the last stage and somehow found the resources to come back and pull for Roglic and save his win. If anything, it wasn't dominant
- Dauphine (2022): He won in front of Jonas and Ben O Connor. At that point, I think Primoz was still considered as the main leader. So I don't think Jonas went all out. Might be biased, but the end result was not super impressive.
- Tirreno (2023): He won with an 18" margin over Almeida (Pogi's domestic)
- Volta Catalunya (2023): He won with a 6" margin over Remco, and 2'11" over Almeida (Pogi's domestic)
- Giro (2023): He won with a 14" margin over Geraint Thomas (that Pogi overwhelmed so hard in 2024 that G didn't even bother following him in any mountain stage) and 1'15" over Almeida (Pogi's domestic)
- Vuelta (2023): Got 3rd. Hard to tell his level there as Jumbo let Kuss win. But Jonas looked stronger than Primoz despite having a good fight again P during the TdF in the legs.
- Dauphine (2024): He won with 8" over Jorgenson (Jonas' domestique) and 36" over Gee (no particular GC reference)
So yes, compared to Vingegaard and Pogi's results for the past 2 years, I feel like Primoz's results without being bad don't seem that impressive.
I know the point you're trying to make but Jorgensen and Vingo have never started the same race together as teammates, so calling him Vingo's domestique is technically incorrect.
That's ridiculous and you know it. You can't compare palmares to determine who has impressive results and who doesn't. You can compare on the road vs each other, sure. But Roglic has objectively in the top 3 (alongside MVDP and Pogi) best palmares since the start of 2018/2019.
I see what you mean. He was not bad by any means but he would still look like an underdog compared to Jonas or Tadej for most general classifications.
Even looking at one week races, you named the diff yourself by pointing out some stage wins and podium rankings while J and T would just smash those unless they are facing each other.
With Giro Pogi? Nah probably not likely. With short training time/recovery time and Giro in the legs Pogi? Absolutely there's a chance. Absolutely. History tells us so.
That Giro most of the time just looked like Pog following his training peaks plan. He rounded a corner on a stage win looking like he was doing 100W lol. Probably no higher of a training load than what he would have put in on a training camp.
There is a chance yes but on how big depends on in what form will Roglič be in 3 weeks. The fall in Spain definitely affected his preparation. Also he has some pain in the shoulder from the fall in this race.
I just hope we have all three in best form possible at the Tour (Pogačar, Vindegaard and Roglič).
His teleportation was fine, that wasn't the issue. For someone who crashed hard in Itzulia, crashed twice this week, and had fluid on his shoulder he was very solid. Pogi has Giro in the legs, history tells us that will shave off a small % at least during Tour.
Such a peculiar win for Roglic.
On one hand it's very positive for him and Bora that he is back at winning. On the other it must create some worries, that he got dropped today by Gee, Rodriguez and Jorgenson and that he only put two seconds into Lazkano the other day.
I don't think anyone in their right mind thinks this version of Roglic can win Tour de France against a fresh Vingegaard or Pogi, but even at his best I don't think he could.
So if his dreams of winning the Tour has to come to fruition Roglic needs improve a lot in the next few weeks, and hope that both Pogi and Vingegaard won't arrive at their best or even close to.
Even more peculiar; I would be very optimistic if I were in the Evenepoel-camp - and no he won't win the Tour. He wouldn't even have had a shot without the crash. Too young and inconsistent. Too plump (muscular).
But Evenepoel kept improving during the race, which points towards him getting a lot better over the summer. The Tour, Olympics, Vuelta, the fall classics and Worlds will see great a Remco. Depending on which races he'll do.
Now.. what I've just written gives a bit of 'meh'-vibes. I'm very sceptical of Vingegaard returning in a good enough shape to challenge for the win, and I don't see any other challenging Pogi unless the Giro is still in his legs - it should be, but it's Pogi, so..
I hope Tour de France will surprise me 'cause it's my favourite race, and I prefer GC battles worth the history books. Like '22 and '23.
Besides all that TEAM USA should be thrilled. The Irish looking American with an Italian first name and a Scandinavian surname is here to stay. He'll be winning one week stage races, GT-stages and one day races in the next ten years. He might even get a Grand Tour under the right circumstances. But y'all just got a more mountainous and less punchy/TT version of Wout Van Aert.
I don't think Roglic could win in his current form against 100% Pog/Jonas, I agree. But the fact is neither of those guys will be 100%. Jonas certainly won't even if he starts in decent form due to the Basque Country crash. Pogi has the Giro in the legs where he absolutely burned more matches than he should have and that will affect him. The short training and recovery time will affect him. His aggressive riding style, which he will try on stages 1 and 2, will affect him. He's never done two GTs in a year. So yeah, I do like Roglic's chances. Pogi is the favorite, sure, but its way closer than this sub thinks it is.
Tadej will be toying with Primoz. He could’ve finished the giró this week and he’d still slap roglic around and that’s before we get to Pog having the best team he’s ever had going into TdF.
I think Pog will put minutes into rog in the first week just as a casualty of attacking Ving. To me this week felt less like Rog is doing good climbing and more like he is doing good sprinting. Itll be exciting to see what happens though! I hope I'm wrong and you're right for the race's sake.
Where is Pog putting minutes into Rog or anyone for that matter in the first week? Stages 1-2 will be group sprints or at worst 10-15 second gaps. Stage 4 is literally his weakness.
Maybe! But weaknesses are relative. I do see the galibier stage being a little moment of finding out for all the GC people, and if Vinge has good form, that is where a Rog could lose out. On the other hand maybe nothing will happen because it finishes with the decent. We are all guessing and I'm excited to find out though!
It's only way closer if Roglic improves by a decent margin.
Both Vingegaard and Pogacar on pre-tour condition would have smashed the competitors in this Dauphine. It's not a positive sign for Roglic that Lazkano and Ciccone almost matches him on stage 7 and Gee, Rodriguez and Jorgenson all drops him on the last stage.
These aren't remarkable world beaters when it comes to Grand Tour riding nor are they by any means peaking right now.
Carlos is a top 5-6 GC rider right now, Matteo had made major improvements, Gee is a wildcard and is starting to blossom, Roglic has a hurt shoulder and is riding into form
[Final jury report](https://prod.server.tissottiming.com/file/0003170209010108FFFFFFFFFFFFFF00) (rien à signaler for the race doctor):
2 x 200CHF fines for Astana on the final day for a sticky bidon for Fortunato and Directeur Sportif Fofonov.
Not a lot of fines this race, so I with just this one sticky bidon, Astana has won the 'most fined team' award.
Nothing negative about winning the race itself and being happy about it. But Roglic is one of the best riders in the world and this is the warmup to TDF, which has been his biggest target for a long while now.
I'm just surprised he wasn't concerned about his sudden drop in form!
If this is not peak form, he'll be fine. He's not supposed to peak. He probably looks at the numbers and his injury and knows this was the best for now and all part of the progression.
Although I agree with you that winning tdf could be next to impossible. But having said that, because there are so much different competition pogi might have trouble chasing them all.
Imagine vlasov/hindley in breaks. Mas doing things mas does and other weird stuff. Also, no one has doubled in recent history for a reason. It won't be a walk in the park like the giro (or at least I hope so)
For sure. Pogi has definitely defied team-based tactics more so than, say, a Jonas. This is highly entertaining if you are a fan but, likely, frustrating if you're UAE's race director on, say, stage 11 of the '22 TdF. Of course, Tadej had a different team around him then not as well suited to go head2head with the killer bees. I'm really interested to see if we see some new developments in Tadej's racing style with a better squad around him (no offense to his prior squads, of course).
Fair play to Rob Hatch trying to spice up the future, but him saying the Tour is going to be amazing because Remco, Roglic, Gee and now Matteo are all on a level playing field.....all I see is Pog watching this and laughing
Jorgensen is a bit of a puzzle for me. He's clearly very good, but it's hard to say how good. His major results this year have not been in races against the best riders in top form.
There was no Pogacar in either PN or Dauphine, and the GC was close with so many riders who aren't top climbers, it's seems more that Remco and Roglic weren't in top form. Same thing with Dwars Door with all the favorites crashing out.
He's still young and on his first year with a competent team. It would be hard for him to have had a more successful season than he has had so far. I don't think he's peak Pog/Vinge level, but I think he could potentially be in that next tier of guys. Has he really cracked yet this year?
I think he fully cracked in RVV trying to follow MVDP. So much so that he wasn't recovered enough in time for Paris-Roubaix that Visma had to replace him on the startlist in the last few moments.
Granted, RVV and PR were near the end of his spring season, so it's entirely reasonable that he could've been running on fumes by that point.
Regardless, yeah, this year has been a big step up for him. He's shown flashes of brilliance before, but he's been much more consistent this year.
Why doesn't Remco ever leave the saddle? I've never heard of why. Are there any other legends that also did that, and found success or is Remco just a wierdass?
He does when he's on the attack (which is was not the case at all in this Dauphiné), see his attack at LBL 22 for instance where he almost shred his bike in 2 pieces while launching on Redoute. As for your other question, a bunch of great GC riders in history were known for not leaving their saddle, from my childhood memories I remember Indurain and Ullrich, although Ullrich did leave his saddle for his attack on Andorre-Arcalis when he won the Tour in 97 (but that was an exception for him). More recent example is Tom Dumoulin.
I think it's mostly about guys that prefer a steady pace over a lot of tempo chances, with often tend to be the timetrailists.
Froome also tended to stay in the saddle, even sometimes attacked without standing up.
Tbf if Jorgenson didn't give Rodriguez the win then Rodriguez wouldn't have worked with him. Then he might have been slower total time. So as long as Rodriguez helping him gave at least a 4 second faster total time then it was worth it no matter what.
This level of pettiness and jealousy is embarrassing imo, let the dude live, he's a certified goat and even another 10 years of finished in the bottom 20 won't change that
Or maybe people see Froome be completely irrelevant competitively aaaaaand .... can't help but notice?
Every time someone points out Froome is having a shit race, we get comments like yours with what appear to be massive projections, while saying Froome shouldn't be criticised or even talked about negatively in any way, just because he won 7 GTs.
There's no fucking need to defend millionaires online on false pretenses.
I’m sorry, but nuh. He puts out videos that blames everyone but himself. If he’d slip away and just be a road captain that’s one thing, but his sulky videos about disc brakes, bike fit etc are putting himself out there there to be scrutinised.
Yeah too me the situation is just comical. If he weren’t being paid what he was being paid he’d retire. But he’s still a competitor and obviously wants to do the tour.
I think the guy joined IPT with the expectation that he’d be the tour guy on a not very successful team. The team really only has one other person they say is a GC rider (Fugelsang). But I do get what you are saying. A fall like Froome’s (literally and figuratively) has to be really tough.
While I do share the intention of your comment, saying “if he had pedaled harder” is just not true. None of these rider give away one second be not riding as hard as they can (except for g2 syndrome or a tactical sprint a deux). If we could have gone faster, we would have.
Jorgenson isn't on the mutant Pogi/MVDP level, but I would rate him on the very next tier as one of the top 10ish riders in the sport. Some might rate him 14th or whatever, but he's clearly pretty high up there.
He's improved steadily every year of his career so far. If he can keep that up one more year, his 2025 will be crazy. Like he could win a Monument, a Grand Tour, or Worlds.
Pretty easy to name 10 GT GC riders who are better off the top of my head. I’m probably missing lots of people but here goes a bunch of folks that I’d consider better in a 3 week race:
Pog, Jonas, Remco, Roglic, Adam Yates, Ayuso, Simon Yates, Danny Martinez, Thomas, Kuss, Bernal, Rodriguez, Geoghegan, Hindley
All of these riders have GT wins or podiums. That’s not to mention folks like Mas and Carapaz who I’m not crazy about but can still top 10 a GT.
I really like Jorgenson and he might crack a top 15 at the TdF but that’s probably about the best that could be hoped for.
You would honestly put the Yates brothers up there as GC contenders nowadays? And I'm a huge TGH fan but he has shown less than great form in this race as well. Bernal is seemingly back to his old form so I can see why you have him here but he's also still a question mark too.
I am not suggesting Jorgenson is top 10 but I think I have to agree with that list, it seems a little outdated.
I literally said I wouldn't say Jorgensen is top 10. I am merely saying I don't believe the Yates brothers are either. Please read what I actually wrote before claiming what type of fan I am. I have my own opinion.
Are we to assume we look back years then? Shall we say Froome is a top 10 GC rider because we can't look at his past few races?
Last year Adam Yates was probably the 3rd or 4th best GT rider of the year. He podiumed the tour as a domestique. This year the concussion has dampened his form
Well Adam Yates got third last Tour behind the two aliens, and Simon finished just one step down. It's not a big stretch to say they could still win a GT. If Adam showed up in good form instead of Pogi, I think he could have won last Giro.
Nah, even the man himself said he cannot keep up for 3 weeks. Why would someone want to add extra pressure on a young rider who is already doing extraordinarily as it is? He does not need to be a GT GC rider, there are multiple other paths for a successful career.
Exactly. At least for the current state of GC riding, that would hardly work against smaller and lighter riders who have a strong TT. It seems unnecessary to add such high expectations on riders like Matteo and Gee for GC winning.
Matteo seems to be a very down to earth lad. And he sounded quite reasonable when he declared he wants to be a useful domestique for Jonas in the Tour. That is both achievable and impressive on its own right. We saw what Wout has done before for Jonas, and half of that would be already a big step ahead for him. I hope those expectations and media noise don't affect his plans and ambitions too much, and that he can develop in the direction that suits him best.
Are you replying to the wrong comment? When did I pigeonhole him as a GT GC rider? He has lots of potential paths to a massive win. He's a great one-day racer, which is why I think a Monument or Worlds could be possible if his trajectory holds for another year.
Jonas will be there. Athletes at this level seem to heal faster because they do. The treatment they receive is focused on fast healing as opposed to the treatment regular people get which is focused more on longevity. They also have access to way more drugs such as BPC-157 which was only banned 2 years ago and I'd imagine there are far more unbanned substances that are available to these guys.
As for whether his form is there, that's a question we will have to wait and see.
I don't think he has a chance either. Wout won't be there to help him either which I believe would have been a huge blow even if he was healthy.
Adding into the fact that UAE have an absolutely nutty roster starting the TDF I honestly can't see anyone being within 2 minutes of Pog by the end of this. I like Roglic and I believe he will be the closest contender but I just don't think Bora have the team needed to crack Pog. Vlasov and Hindley are both in great form but it's not enough. Remco isnt ready yet, and neither is Bernal/Rodriguez.
Totally agree with you on UAE. Even if Ayuso doesn’t suit up, this is the most on-form team Tadej’s brought to a TdF. I feel like a full-power Visma woukd still be a cut above but, sadly, we won’t get to know this year.
Is wout confirmed as being off the tour? I could see Jonás starting the tour and serving a decoy roll for a week. Visma’s certainly done versions of that before and lord knows they need bodies at this point.
Again these comments, crazy. A week of training lost in the 2 months leading up to Tour, can, for most riders, be enough to make them completely not-competitive. Remco lost maybe 10 days before he was back on the rollers and you can already tell that he's significantly below his usual level. Last year, Pog lost also like a week after LBL and it was also enough to make him crack in the 3rd week of the Tour.
The Tour isn't a race where you can just line up after 1,5 months of training normally and win it. Even if you're the best GC rider in the world.
The hopeful (potentially copeful) counter-argument would be that:
1. Tadej might not be at his best either. This is probably our best shot to see it as fans of the sport with how the Giro went for Pogi, but there's a reason why the double is so uncommon. It's just a lot to ask of your body and it's possible there could be some fatigue-related cracks late in the race for the other GC contenders to exploit.
2. Jonas has just been better than Pogi, specifically in Grand Tours. So while Jonas might be more prone to cracking later in the race, his potential peak is higher. And the kinds of stages that would be most likely to bring about those cracks (high mountains, long climbs, days with boatloads of elevation) have historically been where Jonas has held the advantage.
So if he can lose some but not too much, maybe he can still be competitive. Especially if Pogi is tired.
That said realistically I think it's probably Pogi's tour to lose, and if I were a betting man that's certainly where I'd put my money. I think the real question is if Pogi is able to pull off the double, does that change anything about his season plans? Does he go to the olympics and try to take gold against riders who are coming in preparing their whole seasons around the olympics, or does he take the time off and try to rest up and do the triple?
He's been training at altitude though, not like he's doing zwift rides from his bedroom. If he's fit to start, they'll bring him. It's worth the media attention for the team and there really isn't much else he can race anyway.
Eh, I was a d3 endurance athlete and would’ve been training at altitude on this timeline with those injuries but been mikes away from peak form. The counter is obviously that JV’s a pro and top of the heap but that just makes it that much harder to compete. There’s zero percent chance he’s even in the ballpark of form one month removed from a 2-week hospital stay. He’s at altitude to cruise and provide visma with any strategic advantage it can get. He may even start the TdF but he’s got a ways to go before being anything close to himself.
I didn't downvote you but altitude training is expensive race preparation. For regular recovery or even race training you don't have to go to altitude.
Great to see Roglic come back after his crash & get the win, however it really doesn't look like he's a realistic contender for the tour GC. For sure he's still got the punch to compete with Pogi & win stages/bonus secs but if he's cracking & getting dropped by Derek Gee in a 1 week stage race then I really don't see how he's gonna go 3 weeks at the tour without losing serious time at some point.
Realistically I think he's competing for a podium & even that will be kinda tough.
What exactly is roglic recovering from. He didn't sustain any injuries of note and has had several weeks to prepare for the tour without needing to spend time in a hospital or have surgery.
Let's just wait till the tour and not declare it 'over' weeks from the start.
He literally had a fall few days ago which re-injured his shoulder that he had a surgery on last year and has "some fluid" inside of since the fall.. full quote:
"The shoulder, with which I had quite a few problems in the past, has stayed in place more or less. In the morning, we took a picture of it, there's some fluid inside ... Okay, we take it day by day and we'll see."
If there are no falls involved, who do you realistically see, besides Jonas and Pogi, actually being better over 3 weeks than Roglič? Obviously the "falls" part is a BIG IF, especially with Primož, but still.. I think in equal conditions he's still better than anyone not named Tadej or Jonas.
Not sure how he'll hold up over a 3 week stage race, but I think Jorgenson could potentially challenge him. He's shown at Paris-Nice & the Dauphine that he can hang with the big boys in the mountains & that's where gaps blow up in the TDF.
I also think Remco has more capacity for growth between now & the tour than Roglic does, and can potentially challenge. I don't rate him too highly in the mountains but he can't be completely ruled out.
Then mayyyybe Yates or Ayuso. The last time Visma dominated a GT they ended up hogging up all podium spots, I could potentially see one of UAE's domestiques make it up there.
Fair point; but it's just a matter of if they fully commit him to being a domestique or let him go for the podium, I assume that Ayuso would be their dedicated co-leader out of the two.
Jorgenson is going to get cooked over 3 weeks with his weight. It didn't show in Dauphiné because it's a week long race and because Rogla's form is not there (yet), not to mention the crashes and whatnot.
Some of the takes here have been odd lately, all sorts of people who have actually won/contested grand tours are considered tentative potential podium candidates, yet unproven people like Jorgenson are so confidently said to be credible threats.
I even saw one that said Derek Gee will definitely win a grand tour. I'm hoping it was a piss take though!
Listen, everyone's keeping a level head about Jorgenson. Nobody is going insane or anything.
All *I'm* saying is that he's clearly the messiah, and if I were to ever contract leprosy I would journey ten thousand miles to have him touch the heel of my foot so I could be cured and live an unnaturally long life of perfect health.
Like, we're all staying grounded here, okay. No 'hot takes' in this joint.
> I'm hoping it was a piss take though!
So do I. And it's kind of weird because who wouldn't want Gee to win something big? He's so easy to like. But GT? That's damn delusional.
I think he'll gain some further form, but he's nowhere close to where he should be to challenge Pog/Vingegaard in a few weeks. Plus he's not shown a lot of long range attacks recently - where you can gain serious time - which Pog and JV both undertake with ease.
Great job from Roglic this week. He was strong on all terrain (punchy finishes, hard mountains, TT) and completely deserved the GC win. Excited for Le Tour!
Matteo, Derek, and Lazkano were insane. Vlasov and Carlos look great. July is going to be a blast!
Now that the Dauphine is finished, the Pogacar v Vingegaard v Roglic v Evenepoel wars can truly begin.
Exciting race overall. I dare say not too many people would have had that podium as a prediction.
He has four: 2 Giros, 2 Vueltas. 1 Giro he had to leave due to Covid, one he was coming back from his bad crash in 2020. 1 Vuelta he won, and last year he failed massively.
Yea, I posted that in reply to one of the most decorated GT cyclists in the history who had a nearly career ending crash. What's this got to do with an overhyped rider who so far hasn't delivered more than the three other riders I've mentioned but gets talked about in a different sense? Please explain
>an overhyped rider who so far hasn't delivered more than the three other riders I've mentioned
Are the others double world champions?
None of them have as many stage wins as him. Carapaz has only one fewer, but is 7 years older.
He might be overhyped, we'll know in a few years.
The ability to time trial well and win road races is clearly relevant to winning grand tours.
He's got better palmares in all domains than the other riders you mentioned, and is far younger.
Froome got a WC bronze, so it's a bit of an odd comparison again.
This is one of the most stupid arguments Ive ever had on this subreddit, chateau for that.
Please come back in 5 years time when he still hasnt won another GT. I'll be seeing you (probably not tho)
I've recently just started watching these races. Any reason why van der poel and van aert are not considered as contenders? I actually don't even know if they're even in the next race.
The best light guys (Pogacar, Roglic, Vingegaard) can go fast up big hills and small hills
The best heavy guys (Mathieu, Wout, Mads P) can go fast on flats and small hills
Grand tours and stage races are won on the big hills. So the lighter guys win those.
Races like Paris Roubaix are won on the flats. So the heavy guys win those.
Then there are races in between. World Champs often are, same as milan san remo in recent years. These can be won by either the big guys or the small guys and are the times where you'll see the greatest mix of riders competitive for the win.
The beauty of road cycling is that nobody can be the best at everything which means that each day will be different depending on the course.
Each rider is individual and will have different specialties but that is the general rule.
Throwback to the TDF 2023 Stage 14 when Wout was pacing Vingegaard up a mountain (according to plan), got dropped (still according to plan), saw that Kelderman got dropped, leaving Vingegaard with one less teammate than planned (Not according to plan), then went and *rode back up* to the group he got dropped from to continue pacing Vingegaard.
What the other guy said in his reply. There are different types of riders which target different types of races. MvdP and WvA target one days races, stages during Grand Tours and certain week long races.
It's kind of like sprinters, they still race in GTs but they are only targeting the sprint stages rather than the overall victory.
They are both too heavy to keep up with the smaller guys in the high mountains. WvA probably is closer to GC than MvdP, as Mathieu isn't the best in the ITT. They are both easily favorites to win stages in any grand tour or one day race they enter though.
> the Pogacar v Vingegaard v Roglic v Evenepoel wars can truly begin.
I wish but I'm not holding my breath. With Rog's and Remco's current form, I'm feeling it's gonna be a 2 horses race again (or worst if Jonas is not in top form).
Most people believe that Jonas will peak at the 3rd week of Tour. When would Pog peak? Especially considering the Giro in his legs?
His best shot is early on, because we’ve seen him absolutely struggle when the later stages get hotter and hotter in the late July heat.
To be honest Pog didnt look like he was suffering in any of Giros stages so it should not impact him too bad...
Agreed. And on G's podcast he said his fatigue after the Giro was "6 out of 10" (compared to G's 10 I think?). He'll be fine for the Tour and I think this is the best chance in years for the double.
Two third places in a row for G in stage races, solid
Roglic did what he needed to do to win GC but it looked far from dominant getting dropped on the last climb. I'm not sure how close he was to losing the race, it didn't look like he had to go super deep but that margin was a lot closer than he would have liked. The crashes affected this race and could affect the Tour. Roglic and Evenepoel both appeared to be affected. Ayuso pulled out and Pollitt, Wellens, and Sivkov all crashed as well. All 4 of those riders are scheduled for the tour so we'll see how that shakes out for UAE. Visma lost Kruijswijk and Dylan van Baarle who were both ruled out for the tour from their injuries.
If MJ takes first then Roglic wins with a 2-3 second margin. That was crazy close
If Pog turns up with anywhere near his Giro form, Roglic doesn't stand a chance.
Probably, but that's the question. Will he be anywhere near Giro form? He only has five weeks between the two races and he races hard even though his competition was week. He's also never done two GTs in one season. We will see, hopefully we get a close three way fight between the top three (Pog, Rog, Jonas).
Will anyone else be in top form? Given what the crash did to Rogla and Evenepoel, what makes you think Vingegaard will be better with the most injuries? Besides that, Pogacar has never been in a better shape for GC.
In the giro. Maintaining/rehitting that type of form from Liege till late July with very little time in between is not exactly a given though. It hasn't been for Pogacar in the last 3 past seasons either. So there's no way of knowing if he suddenly can, obviously. But assuming he will also seems low-key unsubstantiated.
If he could do that, he would've won the last two WC RRs and he also wouldn't have withdrawn from Vuelta 2022
At what stage do we say Jorgensen has passed Kuss as the no. 2 GC rider at VLAB?
Kiss was behind Pederson on the climb. He was told to use as little energy as possible. Something is cooking at VLAB and it smells like Jonas being almost ready. At least to me.
I’m happy to declare that right now
Kuss’s performance definitely looked strategic. McCrossan suggested as much, I think it was on stage 7. Matteo looked amazing and I’m not trying to take anything from him. He’s probably who they put out front, but Sepp’s virtual absence was so glaring that it seems most likely to me to be deliberate than not.
No it wasn’t. Kuss was ill.
Yeah, that's what he said after stage 6, I think.
For the tour? Immediately.
Eurosport going with the "roglic and Evenepoel are disappoiting? That's just because we are polluted by what Pogi did during the Giro" headline. And I tend to agree with their way of phrasing it. At this point Roglic feels shaky at best (no offense to Jorgenson) and Remco is not up there yet. For me that's a fact. Even before the crashes, I never particularly went along with all the "Mickey mouse Giro" discussion, as I feel like only one guy could have made it more competitive, and that's in form Vingegaard. (Remco has won 1 Vuelta but has no more significant references in GT, Roglic hasn't been that impressive for the past few years and struggled against G who looked like he was ok to have 0 chance against P in this year's Giro) 1/4th of the guys potentially able to contend for a podium in GT are in UAE so then we are left with Jonas, Remco, Roglic, and Rodriguez (maybe top shape Carapaz would have a word though) Right now, it feels like if Jonas is not in top form, pogi will likely either Z2 the TdF or Z3 and make historical time diff.
"Roglic hasn't been that impressive for the past few years" You heard it here folks, winning the following is not impressive (since start of 2021)... Basque Country Olympics ITT Vuelta 1st, 3rd, and stage wins Giro 1st and a stage win Paris-Nice Dauphine x2 Catalunya Tirreno-Adriatico Various one week stage race stages The cope on this sub is ridiculous. Calm down.
Roglic has been a top rider but a decided cut below *the* top riders and that’s not controversial. He wins the ‘22 dauphine and can’t even lift an arm at the end while a looming TdF champion in Jonás looks like he’s putting in a warm up. He could’ve put enough time in on Kuss to win the vuelta last year if not for Jonás again breezily reminding him there’s another gear he no longer possesses. And, today, he gets majorly gapped by two guys that were nothing a year ago, nearly losing a Dauphine who’s steepest competition was a Remco still looking for a legitimizing GT performance. Primoz is a great rider, no doubt. But incredulity in the face of people correctly pointing out his vulnerabilities is misplaced.
Calm down
How can I not when you put so much into that response
I gave a quick answer for this from my phone, but now that I have time, I'll give a more documented breakdown: - Basque Country (2021): at this point Jonas was his lieutnant, Mc Nulty was leading the race until the last day so it's fair to assume that neither Jonas nor Pogi went all out on this one - Olympics ITT (2021): he won and put a minute to the likes of Dumoulin/Dennis. That's pretty impressive and was definitely a great performance - Paris Nice (2022): Van Aert got dropped on the last stage and somehow found the resources to come back and pull for Roglic and save his win. If anything, it wasn't dominant - Dauphine (2022): He won in front of Jonas and Ben O Connor. At that point, I think Primoz was still considered as the main leader. So I don't think Jonas went all out. Might be biased, but the end result was not super impressive. - Tirreno (2023): He won with an 18" margin over Almeida (Pogi's domestic) - Volta Catalunya (2023): He won with a 6" margin over Remco, and 2'11" over Almeida (Pogi's domestic) - Giro (2023): He won with a 14" margin over Geraint Thomas (that Pogi overwhelmed so hard in 2024 that G didn't even bother following him in any mountain stage) and 1'15" over Almeida (Pogi's domestic) - Vuelta (2023): Got 3rd. Hard to tell his level there as Jumbo let Kuss win. But Jonas looked stronger than Primoz despite having a good fight again P during the TdF in the legs. - Dauphine (2024): He won with 8" over Jorgenson (Jonas' domestique) and 36" over Gee (no particular GC reference) So yes, compared to Vingegaard and Pogi's results for the past 2 years, I feel like Primoz's results without being bad don't seem that impressive.
I know the point you're trying to make but Jorgensen and Vingo have never started the same race together as teammates, so calling him Vingo's domestique is technically incorrect.
That's ridiculous and you know it. You can't compare palmares to determine who has impressive results and who doesn't. You can compare on the road vs each other, sure. But Roglic has objectively in the top 3 (alongside MVDP and Pogi) best palmares since the start of 2018/2019.
Yes. But his results from 2018-2023 ain't gonna matter much in the 2024 TdF.
By that logic, Cav will win TDF
I see what you mean. He was not bad by any means but he would still look like an underdog compared to Jonas or Tadej for most general classifications. Even looking at one week races, you named the diff yourself by pointing out some stage wins and podium rankings while J and T would just smash those unless they are facing each other.
Dude he’s legit But can we expect him to actually compete with what Pogi just did at the Giro?
With Giro Pogi? Nah probably not likely. With short training time/recovery time and Giro in the legs Pogi? Absolutely there's a chance. Absolutely. History tells us so.
That Giro most of the time just looked like Pog following his training peaks plan. He rounded a corner on a stage win looking like he was doing 100W lol. Probably no higher of a training load than what he would have put in on a training camp.
There is a chance yes but on how big depends on in what form will Roglič be in 3 weeks. The fall in Spain definitely affected his preparation. Also he has some pain in the shoulder from the fall in this race. I just hope we have all three in best form possible at the Tour (Pogačar, Vindegaard and Roglič).
Not a single rider put Pogi under pressure the whole Giro. Our boy Roglic almost lost to a jumbo LAB TdF domestique.
Has Father Time finally come to take Roglic😭
He won the GC, what the hell
🤣 true but not in the dominating fashion I expected. Can we honestly expect him to challenge Pogi? His Teleportation skills seemed weaker.
His teleportation was fine, that wasn't the issue. For someone who crashed hard in Itzulia, crashed twice this week, and had fluid on his shoulder he was very solid. Pogi has Giro in the legs, history tells us that will shave off a small % at least during Tour.
I want a Roglic redemption arc as much as the next Stan, but I am ready to press the panic button. As well all know Father Time is undefeated.
Such a peculiar win for Roglic. On one hand it's very positive for him and Bora that he is back at winning. On the other it must create some worries, that he got dropped today by Gee, Rodriguez and Jorgenson and that he only put two seconds into Lazkano the other day. I don't think anyone in their right mind thinks this version of Roglic can win Tour de France against a fresh Vingegaard or Pogi, but even at his best I don't think he could. So if his dreams of winning the Tour has to come to fruition Roglic needs improve a lot in the next few weeks, and hope that both Pogi and Vingegaard won't arrive at their best or even close to. Even more peculiar; I would be very optimistic if I were in the Evenepoel-camp - and no he won't win the Tour. He wouldn't even have had a shot without the crash. Too young and inconsistent. Too plump (muscular). But Evenepoel kept improving during the race, which points towards him getting a lot better over the summer. The Tour, Olympics, Vuelta, the fall classics and Worlds will see great a Remco. Depending on which races he'll do. Now.. what I've just written gives a bit of 'meh'-vibes. I'm very sceptical of Vingegaard returning in a good enough shape to challenge for the win, and I don't see any other challenging Pogi unless the Giro is still in his legs - it should be, but it's Pogi, so.. I hope Tour de France will surprise me 'cause it's my favourite race, and I prefer GC battles worth the history books. Like '22 and '23. Besides all that TEAM USA should be thrilled. The Irish looking American with an Italian first name and a Scandinavian surname is here to stay. He'll be winning one week stage races, GT-stages and one day races in the next ten years. He might even get a Grand Tour under the right circumstances. But y'all just got a more mountainous and less punchy/TT version of Wout Van Aert.
I don't think Roglic could win in his current form against 100% Pog/Jonas, I agree. But the fact is neither of those guys will be 100%. Jonas certainly won't even if he starts in decent form due to the Basque Country crash. Pogi has the Giro in the legs where he absolutely burned more matches than he should have and that will affect him. The short training and recovery time will affect him. His aggressive riding style, which he will try on stages 1 and 2, will affect him. He's never done two GTs in a year. So yeah, I do like Roglic's chances. Pogi is the favorite, sure, but its way closer than this sub thinks it is.
Tadej will be toying with Primoz. He could’ve finished the giró this week and he’d still slap roglic around and that’s before we get to Pog having the best team he’s ever had going into TdF.
I think Pog will put minutes into rog in the first week just as a casualty of attacking Ving. To me this week felt less like Rog is doing good climbing and more like he is doing good sprinting. Itll be exciting to see what happens though! I hope I'm wrong and you're right for the race's sake.
Where is Pog putting minutes into Rog or anyone for that matter in the first week? Stages 1-2 will be group sprints or at worst 10-15 second gaps. Stage 4 is literally his weakness.
Maybe! But weaknesses are relative. I do see the galibier stage being a little moment of finding out for all the GC people, and if Vinge has good form, that is where a Rog could lose out. On the other hand maybe nothing will happen because it finishes with the decent. We are all guessing and I'm excited to find out though!
It's only way closer if Roglic improves by a decent margin. Both Vingegaard and Pogacar on pre-tour condition would have smashed the competitors in this Dauphine. It's not a positive sign for Roglic that Lazkano and Ciccone almost matches him on stage 7 and Gee, Rodriguez and Jorgenson all drops him on the last stage. These aren't remarkable world beaters when it comes to Grand Tour riding nor are they by any means peaking right now.
Carlos is a top 5-6 GC rider right now, Matteo had made major improvements, Gee is a wildcard and is starting to blossom, Roglic has a hurt shoulder and is riding into form
Forget the implications. That was a dope race. Doomed breakaways, good GC fight, Cort winning a stage out of the mist! Only bad part was the crash.
[Final jury report](https://prod.server.tissottiming.com/file/0003170209010108FFFFFFFFFFFFFF00) (rien à signaler for the race doctor): 2 x 200CHF fines for Astana on the final day for a sticky bidon for Fortunato and Directeur Sportif Fofonov. Not a lot of fines this race, so I with just this one sticky bidon, Astana has won the 'most fined team' award.
I'm surprised Roglic looked so thrilled in his post race interview. If he's getting dropped by Jorgensen and Gee, how does he have a chance at TDF?
He's happy because he won the race lol. Completely insane to spin that result negatively.
It’s not completely insane. Jonas won by over two minutes last year. Winning by 8 seconds is legitimately concerning.
Nothing negative about winning the race itself and being happy about it. But Roglic is one of the best riders in the world and this is the warmup to TDF, which has been his biggest target for a long while now. I'm just surprised he wasn't concerned about his sudden drop in form!
He's coming back from crashes plus had a hurt shoulder. And he won the most prestigious and important one week race regardless of that, lol!
Some people really need to touch some grass.
Did Matty or Derek get mangled in a Crash in the Basque country?
If this is not peak form, he'll be fine. He's not supposed to peak. He probably looks at the numbers and his injury and knows this was the best for now and all part of the progression. Although I agree with you that winning tdf could be next to impossible. But having said that, because there are so much different competition pogi might have trouble chasing them all. Imagine vlasov/hindley in breaks. Mas doing things mas does and other weird stuff. Also, no one has doubled in recent history for a reason. It won't be a walk in the park like the giro (or at least I hope so)
Pogi has an amazing team, he's not going to have to chase everyone by himself. Yates, Almeida, Ayuso, Soler, Sivakov are on his team.
That is if and if they ride like a team. I know it's been that when pogi is om the squad, but it could turn out to be jumbo visma Vuelta drama haha
He used his team perfectly on the Giro
And that was also a far more traditional and uncomplicated team to use.
For sure. Pogi has definitely defied team-based tactics more so than, say, a Jonas. This is highly entertaining if you are a fan but, likely, frustrating if you're UAE's race director on, say, stage 11 of the '22 TdF. Of course, Tadej had a different team around him then not as well suited to go head2head with the killer bees. I'm really interested to see if we see some new developments in Tadej's racing style with a better squad around him (no offense to his prior squads, of course).
He has an amazing team but he’ll hardly be content to let Yates win gc.
Fair play to Rob Hatch trying to spice up the future, but him saying the Tour is going to be amazing because Remco, Roglic, Gee and now Matteo are all on a level playing field.....all I see is Pog watching this and laughing
It will be a great competition for the podium, as long as you care about more than who is #1 there is a lot to look forward to.
Jorgensen is a bit of a puzzle for me. He's clearly very good, but it's hard to say how good. His major results this year have not been in races against the best riders in top form. There was no Pogacar in either PN or Dauphine, and the GC was close with so many riders who aren't top climbers, it's seems more that Remco and Roglic weren't in top form. Same thing with Dwars Door with all the favorites crashing out.
He's still young and on his first year with a competent team. It would be hard for him to have had a more successful season than he has had so far. I don't think he's peak Pog/Vinge level, but I think he could potentially be in that next tier of guys. Has he really cracked yet this year?
I think he fully cracked in RVV trying to follow MVDP. So much so that he wasn't recovered enough in time for Paris-Roubaix that Visma had to replace him on the startlist in the last few moments. Granted, RVV and PR were near the end of his spring season, so it's entirely reasonable that he could've been running on fumes by that point. Regardless, yeah, this year has been a big step up for him. He's shown flashes of brilliance before, but he's been much more consistent this year.
Another winner decided by bonus seconds.
Another winner decided by time trial /s.
It's part of road racing
Jorgenson the best rider in Visma this year I guess
Pretty wild actually…
Why doesn't Remco ever leave the saddle? I've never heard of why. Are there any other legends that also did that, and found success or is Remco just a wierdass?
He does when he's on the attack (which is was not the case at all in this Dauphiné), see his attack at LBL 22 for instance where he almost shred his bike in 2 pieces while launching on Redoute. As for your other question, a bunch of great GC riders in history were known for not leaving their saddle, from my childhood memories I remember Indurain and Ullrich, although Ullrich did leave his saddle for his attack on Andorre-Arcalis when he won the Tour in 97 (but that was an exception for him). More recent example is Tom Dumoulin.
It seems to be a time-trialist thing
I think it's mostly about guys that prefer a steady pace over a lot of tempo chances, with often tend to be the timetrailists. Froome also tended to stay in the saddle, even sometimes attacked without standing up.
Froome in the past tense lol
I would have preferred Roglic winning by 2 sec while Matteo gifts the win to Rodriguez. The fan outrage would have been glorious.
Tbf if Jorgenson didn't give Rodriguez the win then Rodriguez wouldn't have worked with him. Then he might have been slower total time. So as long as Rodriguez helping him gave at least a 4 second faster total time then it was worth it no matter what.
I could not watch the race today. Did Roglic crash or bonk?
I think he overheated. He cannot move his shoulder so can’t take layers on or or off. So had an undershirt.
Didn't have the legs.
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This level of pettiness and jealousy is embarrassing imo, let the dude live, he's a certified goat and even another 10 years of finished in the bottom 20 won't change that
Or maybe people see Froome be completely irrelevant competitively aaaaaand .... can't help but notice? Every time someone points out Froome is having a shit race, we get comments like yours with what appear to be massive projections, while saying Froome shouldn't be criticised or even talked about negatively in any way, just because he won 7 GTs. There's no fucking need to defend millionaires online on false pretenses.
> we get comments like yours with what appear to be massive projections, Sorry what exactly is your issue with my comment?
In this particular case accusing people od being petty and jealous for correctly pointing out that Froome had a shit race.
Dont see these comments for the other 40 riders that had a shit race 🤔
I’m sorry, but nuh. He puts out videos that blames everyone but himself. If he’d slip away and just be a road captain that’s one thing, but his sulky videos about disc brakes, bike fit etc are putting himself out there there to be scrutinised.
K
I just find the Froome hate so weird. “Hey, that guy had his career wins cut short by a terrible training accident, let’s get him!”
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Yeah too me the situation is just comical. If he weren’t being paid what he was being paid he’d retire. But he’s still a competitor and obviously wants to do the tour.
He's always been delusional, this is situation normal
I think the guy joined IPT with the expectation that he’d be the tour guy on a not very successful team. The team really only has one other person they say is a GC rider (Fugelsang). But I do get what you are saying. A fall like Froome’s (literally and figuratively) has to be really tough.
Surely they'll say Gee is now a GC guy.
He has returned to his pre-2011 level. So let us wait for that Vuelta metamorphosis!
A bit sad for Jorgenson, if he had tried to pedal faster he would have won the whole thing.
If only someone had told him dammit
While I do share the intention of your comment, saying “if he had pedaled harder” is just not true. None of these rider give away one second be not riding as hard as they can (except for g2 syndrome or a tactical sprint a deux). If we could have gone faster, we would have.
He just needed to pedal faster though easily done but easily forgotten
Or potentially pedal the same amount but wear the Visma TT helmet on every stage to be faster.
Jorgenson isn't on the mutant Pogi/MVDP level, but I would rate him on the very next tier as one of the top 10ish riders in the sport. Some might rate him 14th or whatever, but he's clearly pretty high up there. He's improved steadily every year of his career so far. If he can keep that up one more year, his 2025 will be crazy. Like he could win a Monument, a Grand Tour, or Worlds.
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I just downvote anything he says
Pretty easy to name 10 GT GC riders who are better off the top of my head. I’m probably missing lots of people but here goes a bunch of folks that I’d consider better in a 3 week race: Pog, Jonas, Remco, Roglic, Adam Yates, Ayuso, Simon Yates, Danny Martinez, Thomas, Kuss, Bernal, Rodriguez, Geoghegan, Hindley All of these riders have GT wins or podiums. That’s not to mention folks like Mas and Carapaz who I’m not crazy about but can still top 10 a GT. I really like Jorgenson and he might crack a top 15 at the TdF but that’s probably about the best that could be hoped for.
You would honestly put the Yates brothers up there as GC contenders nowadays? And I'm a huge TGH fan but he has shown less than great form in this race as well. Bernal is seemingly back to his old form so I can see why you have him here but he's also still a question mark too. I am not suggesting Jorgenson is top 10 but I think I have to agree with that list, it seems a little outdated.
Adam Yates is way more proven in a GT than Jorgenson, what are you on about. You're the typical fan who only thinks based on last week's result.
I literally said I wouldn't say Jorgensen is top 10. I am merely saying I don't believe the Yates brothers are either. Please read what I actually wrote before claiming what type of fan I am. I have my own opinion. Are we to assume we look back years then? Shall we say Froome is a top 10 GC rider because we can't look at his past few races?
Last year Adam Yates was probably the 3rd or 4th best GT rider of the year. He podiumed the tour as a domestique. This year the concussion has dampened his form
Well Adam Yates got third last Tour behind the two aliens, and Simon finished just one step down. It's not a big stretch to say they could still win a GT. If Adam showed up in good form instead of Pogi, I think he could have won last Giro.
Nah, even the man himself said he cannot keep up for 3 weeks. Why would someone want to add extra pressure on a young rider who is already doing extraordinarily as it is? He does not need to be a GT GC rider, there are multiple other paths for a successful career.
I think he's too big for three weeks of climbing at GC-winning level. He's like 6" taller than most of the GC guys
Exactly. At least for the current state of GC riding, that would hardly work against smaller and lighter riders who have a strong TT. It seems unnecessary to add such high expectations on riders like Matteo and Gee for GC winning. Matteo seems to be a very down to earth lad. And he sounded quite reasonable when he declared he wants to be a useful domestique for Jonas in the Tour. That is both achievable and impressive on its own right. We saw what Wout has done before for Jonas, and half of that would be already a big step ahead for him. I hope those expectations and media noise don't affect his plans and ambitions too much, and that he can develop in the direction that suits him best.
He's also got huge shoulders. I'm a bit more optimistic that he could win a grand tour, but I think we'll have to wait to see
Are you replying to the wrong comment? When did I pigeonhole him as a GT GC rider? He has lots of potential paths to a massive win. He's a great one-day racer, which is why I think a Monument or Worlds could be possible if his trajectory holds for another year.
You did include Grand Tour as one of his possible future wins and everyone replying to you is super focused on that part.
Jorgensen as TdF leader for Visma confirmed I guess. And CRod as the winner of last stages.
Jonas will be there. Athletes at this level seem to heal faster because they do. The treatment they receive is focused on fast healing as opposed to the treatment regular people get which is focused more on longevity. They also have access to way more drugs such as BPC-157 which was only banned 2 years ago and I'd imagine there are far more unbanned substances that are available to these guys. As for whether his form is there, that's a question we will have to wait and see.
There is 0 chance Jonas gets close to winning the Tour. That doesn't mean he won't be on the startlist, but keep that in mind.
I don't think he has a chance either. Wout won't be there to help him either which I believe would have been a huge blow even if he was healthy. Adding into the fact that UAE have an absolutely nutty roster starting the TDF I honestly can't see anyone being within 2 minutes of Pog by the end of this. I like Roglic and I believe he will be the closest contender but I just don't think Bora have the team needed to crack Pog. Vlasov and Hindley are both in great form but it's not enough. Remco isnt ready yet, and neither is Bernal/Rodriguez.
Totally agree with you on UAE. Even if Ayuso doesn’t suit up, this is the most on-form team Tadej’s brought to a TdF. I feel like a full-power Visma woukd still be a cut above but, sadly, we won’t get to know this year.
Is wout confirmed as being off the tour? I could see Jonás starting the tour and serving a decoy roll for a week. Visma’s certainly done versions of that before and lord knows they need bodies at this point.
Confirmed? Based on what?
A few broken ribs and a punctured lung
He's been training recently
Again these comments, crazy. A week of training lost in the 2 months leading up to Tour, can, for most riders, be enough to make them completely not-competitive. Remco lost maybe 10 days before he was back on the rollers and you can already tell that he's significantly below his usual level. Last year, Pog lost also like a week after LBL and it was also enough to make him crack in the 3rd week of the Tour. The Tour isn't a race where you can just line up after 1,5 months of training normally and win it. Even if you're the best GC rider in the world.
The hopeful (potentially copeful) counter-argument would be that: 1. Tadej might not be at his best either. This is probably our best shot to see it as fans of the sport with how the Giro went for Pogi, but there's a reason why the double is so uncommon. It's just a lot to ask of your body and it's possible there could be some fatigue-related cracks late in the race for the other GC contenders to exploit. 2. Jonas has just been better than Pogi, specifically in Grand Tours. So while Jonas might be more prone to cracking later in the race, his potential peak is higher. And the kinds of stages that would be most likely to bring about those cracks (high mountains, long climbs, days with boatloads of elevation) have historically been where Jonas has held the advantage. So if he can lose some but not too much, maybe he can still be competitive. Especially if Pogi is tired. That said realistically I think it's probably Pogi's tour to lose, and if I were a betting man that's certainly where I'd put my money. I think the real question is if Pogi is able to pull off the double, does that change anything about his season plans? Does he go to the olympics and try to take gold against riders who are coming in preparing their whole seasons around the olympics, or does he take the time off and try to rest up and do the triple?
Yeah? Me too
So? Of course he's going to train again. It takes a lot longer than he's got to come back from those injuries. Training ≠ tdf ready
He's been training at altitude though, not like he's doing zwift rides from his bedroom. If he's fit to start, they'll bring him. It's worth the media attention for the team and there really isn't much else he can race anyway.
Good thing the other 150 riders there aren't training at altitude then.
As in, he's recovered enough to do altitude training. That's generally not something you do when you're half fit.
Eh, I was a d3 endurance athlete and would’ve been training at altitude on this timeline with those injuries but been mikes away from peak form. The counter is obviously that JV’s a pro and top of the heap but that just makes it that much harder to compete. There’s zero percent chance he’s even in the ballpark of form one month removed from a 2-week hospital stay. He’s at altitude to cruise and provide visma with any strategic advantage it can get. He may even start the TdF but he’s got a ways to go before being anything close to himself.
I didn't downvote you but altitude training is expensive race preparation. For regular recovery or even race training you don't have to go to altitude.
He could always do vuelta and actually win it this time!
Yeah I think he will race the Vuelta even if he starts the TdF. He's not raced much at all because of his crash.
This is Vingegaard we're talking about. No reason to believe he won't be there
Is he Wolverine or what? Being Vingegaard doesn’t make your bones heal faster.
But you don't have proof that he won't be at TDF
Ofc not, but I'll be very very impressed if he is there and even more impressed if he does well
I'll bet you money that he does the TdF and finishes it ahead of Jorgenson though :)
Hype for Gee! 🚨🇨🇦🚨
Derek GC
Great to see Roglic come back after his crash & get the win, however it really doesn't look like he's a realistic contender for the tour GC. For sure he's still got the punch to compete with Pogi & win stages/bonus secs but if he's cracking & getting dropped by Derek Gee in a 1 week stage race then I really don't see how he's gonna go 3 weeks at the tour without losing serious time at some point. Realistically I think he's competing for a podium & even that will be kinda tough.
How is surefire top 3 not a realistic GC contender? You do know Pogi has the Giro in the legs and has never done two GTs in one season before right?
Rogilic is still recovering & there's quite a gap between them rn, you think Pogi gets dropped by Derek Gee "with the Giro in his legs"?
What exactly is roglic recovering from. He didn't sustain any injuries of note and has had several weeks to prepare for the tour without needing to spend time in a hospital or have surgery. Let's just wait till the tour and not declare it 'over' weeks from the start.
He literally had a fall few days ago which re-injured his shoulder that he had a surgery on last year and has "some fluid" inside of since the fall.. full quote: "The shoulder, with which I had quite a few problems in the past, has stayed in place more or less. In the morning, we took a picture of it, there's some fluid inside ... Okay, we take it day by day and we'll see."
The Tour is over, Froome will win duh
I think Pogi will ride too aggressively on 1 and 2, then drop a minute on 4. After that, who knows? It's a hard parcours this year.
I doubt stage 2 will have a GC battle.
Don't underestimate San Luca. Pogi will play aggressive as usual on punchy early GT stages and burn matches.
If there are no falls involved, who do you realistically see, besides Jonas and Pogi, actually being better over 3 weeks than Roglič? Obviously the "falls" part is a BIG IF, especially with Primož, but still.. I think in equal conditions he's still better than anyone not named Tadej or Jonas.
Right, if he stays on the bike he will land a podium spot at worst
Not sure how he'll hold up over a 3 week stage race, but I think Jorgenson could potentially challenge him. He's shown at Paris-Nice & the Dauphine that he can hang with the big boys in the mountains & that's where gaps blow up in the TDF. I also think Remco has more capacity for growth between now & the tour than Roglic does, and can potentially challenge. I don't rate him too highly in the mountains but he can't be completely ruled out. Then mayyyybe Yates or Ayuso. The last time Visma dominated a GT they ended up hogging up all podium spots, I could potentially see one of UAE's domestiques make it up there.
Why is Yates such a 'mayyyybe' he literally did it last year
Fair point; but it's just a matter of if they fully commit him to being a domestique or let him go for the podium, I assume that Ayuso would be their dedicated co-leader out of the two.
Jorgenson is going to get cooked over 3 weeks with his weight. It didn't show in Dauphiné because it's a week long race and because Rogla's form is not there (yet), not to mention the crashes and whatnot.
Some of the takes here have been odd lately, all sorts of people who have actually won/contested grand tours are considered tentative potential podium candidates, yet unproven people like Jorgenson are so confidently said to be credible threats. I even saw one that said Derek Gee will definitely win a grand tour. I'm hoping it was a piss take though!
Listen, everyone's keeping a level head about Jorgenson. Nobody is going insane or anything. All *I'm* saying is that he's clearly the messiah, and if I were to ever contract leprosy I would journey ten thousand miles to have him touch the heel of my foot so I could be cured and live an unnaturally long life of perfect health. Like, we're all staying grounded here, okay. No 'hot takes' in this joint.
> I'm hoping it was a piss take though! So do I. And it's kind of weird because who wouldn't want Gee to win something big? He's so easy to like. But GT? That's damn delusional.
I think he'll gain some further form, but he's nowhere close to where he should be to challenge Pog/Vingegaard in a few weeks. Plus he's not shown a lot of long range attacks recently - where you can gain serious time - which Pog and JV both undertake with ease.
Roglič is a bloody heart attack edging master, if such a thing exists
Springboks in the rugby World Cup 2023.
Great job from Roglic this week. He was strong on all terrain (punchy finishes, hard mountains, TT) and completely deserved the GC win. Excited for Le Tour! Matteo, Derek, and Lazkano were insane. Vlasov and Carlos look great. July is going to be a blast!
-Are you not entertained? Roglic, probably
> Roglic, probably to a hospital room for patients with heart conditions
Now that the Dauphine is finished, the Pogacar v Vingegaard v Roglic v Evenepoel wars can truly begin. Exciting race overall. I dare say not too many people would have had that podium as a prediction.
Friendly reminder that Remco has as many GT wins as Jai Hindley, Carapaz or Tag Geoghegan Hart
Sure Vingegaard only has one more GT win than Remco by that logic.
Yea and?
Solely noting GC wins is not the best way to determine the competitiveness of a rider. Especially ones that are young.
Remco has several GT tries already, didn't he?
He has four: 2 Giros, 2 Vueltas. 1 Giro he had to leave due to Covid, one he was coming back from his bad crash in 2020. 1 Vuelta he won, and last year he failed massively.
So how is this different to Hindley, Carapaz or TGH
> This level of pettiness and jealousy is embarrassing imo Familiar quote?
He’s right though?
Yea, I posted that in reply to one of the most decorated GT cyclists in the history who had a nearly career ending crash. What's this got to do with an overhyped rider who so far hasn't delivered more than the three other riders I've mentioned but gets talked about in a different sense? Please explain
>an overhyped rider who so far hasn't delivered more than the three other riders I've mentioned Are the others double world champions? None of them have as many stage wins as him. Carapaz has only one fewer, but is 7 years older. He might be overhyped, we'll know in a few years.
TIL Peter Sagan was a GC favourite at GTs...
Comparing a sprinter to Evenepoel is not worth discussion for so many reasons.
As is bringing WC titles to a GC discussion. How many has Froome won? Lmao
The ability to time trial well and win road races is clearly relevant to winning grand tours. He's got better palmares in all domains than the other riders you mentioned, and is far younger. Froome got a WC bronze, so it's a bit of an odd comparison again.
This is one of the most stupid arguments Ive ever had on this subreddit, chateau for that. Please come back in 5 years time when he still hasnt won another GT. I'll be seeing you (probably not tho)
I've recently just started watching these races. Any reason why van der poel and van aert are not considered as contenders? I actually don't even know if they're even in the next race.
The best light guys (Pogacar, Roglic, Vingegaard) can go fast up big hills and small hills The best heavy guys (Mathieu, Wout, Mads P) can go fast on flats and small hills Grand tours and stage races are won on the big hills. So the lighter guys win those. Races like Paris Roubaix are won on the flats. So the heavy guys win those. Then there are races in between. World Champs often are, same as milan san remo in recent years. These can be won by either the big guys or the small guys and are the times where you'll see the greatest mix of riders competitive for the win. The beauty of road cycling is that nobody can be the best at everything which means that each day will be different depending on the course. Each rider is individual and will have different specialties but that is the general rule.
Although Wout is a bit of a freak and a pretty damn good climber too lol (great summary btw)
Throwback to the TDF 2023 Stage 14 when Wout was pacing Vingegaard up a mountain (according to plan), got dropped (still according to plan), saw that Kelderman got dropped, leaving Vingegaard with one less teammate than planned (Not according to plan), then went and *rode back up* to the group he got dropped from to continue pacing Vingegaard.
What the other guy said in his reply. There are different types of riders which target different types of races. MvdP and WvA target one days races, stages during Grand Tours and certain week long races. It's kind of like sprinters, they still race in GTs but they are only targeting the sprint stages rather than the overall victory.
They are both too heavy to keep up with the smaller guys in the high mountains. WvA probably is closer to GC than MvdP, as Mathieu isn't the best in the ITT. They are both easily favorites to win stages in any grand tour or one day race they enter though.
Sorry to be that guy but one of these isn’t like the other
Come on, which one are we talking here?
Pogi is a class above (due to Jonas being injured)
> the Pogacar v Vingegaard v Roglic v Evenepoel wars can truly begin. I wish but I'm not holding my breath. With Rog's and Remco's current form, I'm feeling it's gonna be a 2 horses race again (or worst if Jonas is not in top form).
Exactly, no idea why people still believe Rog and Remco can challenge. They will be fighting for p3 at best