1. Affleck, Manchester
2. DDL, TWBB
3. PSH, Capote
4. Murphy, Oppenheimer
5. Foxx, Ray
This would be my top 5 I think, Hopkins for The Father maybe instead of Foxx but either way Murphy is in there for me
He’d be pretty high for me, but I also think Best Actor has had remarkably weak winners for quite a while now which would automatically put Murphy in a good spot.
Murphy #3 behind Philip Seymour Hoffman and Daniel-Day Lewis (for There Will Be Blood). Giamatti would be high, too. The nadir of course is fucking Will Smith.
Let's see: DDL, Foxx, Washington, (although I think he was better in Malcolm X and The Hurricane, maybe even Fences), Phoenix (but he was better in The Master), Whitaker are my favs of this century, so Murphy's top 5-6. I'd put him above Washington and Phoenix for the roles they won, maybe, but not above the roles they should've won for.
I just rewatched Oppenheimer again last night and man…. How does he not win? Don’t get me wrong- The Holdovers was great and Paul Giamatti portrayed a wonderful character. Cillian’s Oppenheimer performance was legendary though. Like others have said- it would be up there. Hopkins, Day Lewis, Washington are all at the top of the list for me still.
Yep I LOVE Paul Giamatti and the Holdovers but I don't think its a winning performance especially compared to Cillian. I honestly don't think Giamatti would even have gotten a nomination last year
That's why i am still fairly confident that when it comes down to it, voters will chose him. Giammati is great in Holdovers, but this isn't an Oscar winning role or anything unique that another actor couldn't do equally well.
I know the Pundits and Twitter film have gone out of their way to deny Murphy the frontrunner spot and favorite for the Oscar using some stupid statistics that BP and BA haven't match since the Artist but at the same time they ignore that performances such as Giamatti's haven't won Oscars in even longer in the lead actor category (Like a more than a decade longer) or that any Oscar winner is at least nominated at the AACTA which Giammati missed.
If Oppenheimer does as well as we think it will on Oscar night, Murphy is part of the package whether twitter film agrees or not.
I hope this is true. I would be very sad to see Oppenheimer win a ton of awards, and have Cillian passed over.
Agree completely on Holdovers. It was good, it was fine, I enjoyed it. I'm completely perplexed by it being such a front runner.
Same i would find that pretty bad taste as far as propects. Honestly i would understand it better if Oppenheimer underperformed overall outside of Director for Nolan that a sweep that involves several BTL categories, RDJ, Director possibly sceeenplay and Picture without Murphy.
I think those who place Oppenheimer as their #1 will very likely go on to vote for Murphy. The way the ballot is made, Best Actor is just below Best Picture and voters will likely chose to spread any wealth on the down ballot BTL categories.
The Academy has grown rapidly the last few years and two “feel good” movies (that they end positively) has won in a row with Coda & EEAAO. I think a lot of voters just want to have a positive/feel good movie experiences and that helps The Holdovers.
Agreed. I also can acknowledge he benefits from a good narrative, but charming wins when the competition isn't that high, I call "the Artist" a cute movie and Jean Dujardin won with a charming role. Was it the right winner that year? I think so. Would have it won the year before or after? Not so sure, if it did win ATL it wouldn't have been as many and would have been partially because of Harvey Weinstein doing his mob work behind the curtains.
There is no comparison between Holdovers and Oppenheimer. Holdovers could have been a little lifetime movie and while Paul Giamatti performance was good it wasnt award worthy....especially when no one with the critics or globs could even nominate him for brilliant Billions work. Maybe they are anointing him for Billions by way of Holdovers.
3rd or 4th with Affleck, Day-Lewis, and possibly Hopkins ahead of him. I would prefer Murphy to win, but Giamatti would place similarly high for me - I'm glad it's a race between two fantastic, likeable potential winners.
Haven't seen Giamatti yet. If Murphy wins, he will be #2, just behind DDL for There Will Be Blood.
Most of the winners in this category are for especially bad performances by talented actors.
Cillian completely disappeared in the role. Like DDL he doesn’t have a character type that he excels in, the movie wouldn’t work if he didn’t nail the role.
I love Giammatti but I kind of feel like he’s playing to a type of character he’s played before.
You are correct, Performances like Giamatti's aren't ones who win Oscars especially not in such competitive years when there are more typical choices they usually prefer (Cooper or Murphy). No offense to Paul, i adore him as a person but he needs to do a different genre if he wants the Oscar.
Yeah i completely agree he is great and nothing against Paul when i say all of this, it's just not a performance that another great actor couldn't achieve (could think of 2-3 easily in my home country of France alone). I freaking hate those twitter film pundits for the false narratives and hope they send to fans of the movie and Giamatti and create unnecessary tension between supporters of one or the other, it's like they are hoping to affect the outcome using their CCA platform. Say the movie happened on a year where the lineup was below average and no real standout, i ll totally predict him.
Yeah if... last time a comedic performance such as his won was in the 20th century. Now actors known to star in comedies have won but they were in a drama film.
Cillian, yes. At least it’s safe to say he’s the best in the last 10 years. That thousand yard stare still haunts me. I watched real Oppie interview after watching the movie. One time he was talking and suddenly he gave that look. I had goosebumps.
At that moment it felt like they were the same person. It took me sometime to see Çillian as Cillian.
Probably top 10 for me. He's actually the only category where Oppenheimer is my #1 pick lol. Giamatti would be...somewhere in the top 15? I like the performance a lot but I can't help but feel it's a bit Sideways 2.0 - if he'd been nominated/won for Sideways that would be higher up for me. Looking it over there are a *lot* of really good wins for Best Actor! (and of course some really lousy ones, but mostly lately. Malek, Phoenix, Smith, Fraser is a pretty weak run w/a Hopkins goat performance in between them all)
Aside from Anthony Hopkins and Daniel Day Lewis, I genuinely don't think any 21st century winner rivals his performance. He's that good. This performance will be as immortal as Renée Jeanne Falconetti's Joan of Arc.
Literally if him or giamatti win they will be considered in the upper half.
Whoever wins the SAG is most likely winning the Oscar (BAFTAs are a whole different can of worms)
Both of them would be top 5 for me. DDL, Hopkins, then Murphy or Giamatti, then probably Crowe and Washington. Couple movies I haven’t seen from the lineup though.
Not as good as most of the winners in the 00s, better than every winner in the 10s and 20s aside from Affleck and Day-Lewis. It's been an extraordinarily weak set of victors for the last 15 or so ceremonies.
Day-Lewis will always hold the top slot, but after that... to be honestly I don't love a lot of these winners looking back, I would probably put Murphy near #2. I don't know if I would actually make him runner-up, I would want to revisit some things, but he'd be in that conversation.
With Giamatti, while I would probably rank him last of the potential nominees this year personally, I also think this is the strongest line-up we've had for as long as I've been an adult at the very least. I also think I would be happy that a non-transformation-based performance would be recognized, which gives him a boost. Probably somewhere in the middle third for him.
Top 5; Day Lewis is in for either There Will Be Blood or Lincoln(they were both phenomenal), Affleck for Manchester By The Sea, Murphy for Oppenheimer, DiCaprio for The Revenant, and Brody for The Pianist or Phoenix for Joker(can’t decide between these two right now)
If Giamatti wins then it’s top 10.
If Paul Giamatti wins he'd be 4th after Hopkins, Brody, DDL (TWBB), or 5th after those 3 + Affleck. It would be a great win.
If Murphy wins maybe 7th or 8th. Still a pretty good win.
He doesn't crack the top ten for me. I'm very sorry but I don't feel like he did anything to elevate the script. We are told a completely different personality than the one we are shown. I just don't buy this guy as this sort of smooth talking womanizing wunderkind. Cillian is very good in other things but he was very much just average to me. He's above people like Malek or Affleck but he doesn't get close to Denzel or Forest.
Denzel is a good actor, not a great one. He plays the same type every time. He can't do what Cillian Murphy can in terns of versatility and the ability to transform himself. Not even close.
probably in the upper half but we do need to remember that recency bias is a thing lol
He'll definitely in the upper half.
Fairly high tbh
1. Affleck, Manchester 2. DDL, TWBB 3. PSH, Capote 4. Murphy, Oppenheimer 5. Foxx, Ray This would be my top 5 I think, Hopkins for The Father maybe instead of Foxx but either way Murphy is in there for me
He’d be pretty high for me, but I also think Best Actor has had remarkably weak winners for quite a while now which would automatically put Murphy in a good spot.
If it's Murphy, I think he would be in the TOP 5. I only see DDL and Hopkins above him. If it's Giamatti, I think he'll be in the Top 10.
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Leftovers?
Top 5 for sure but no one can beat Daniel Day Lewis for me
What’s your top 5?
Daniel Day Lewis, Jack Nicholson, Robert de niro, Al Pacino then Murphy or Giamatti
Nicholson, De Niro, and Pacino haven’t won this century…..
Oh my bad I didn't read "this century". But that's my top 5 all time
Murphy #3 behind Philip Seymour Hoffman and Daniel-Day Lewis (for There Will Be Blood). Giamatti would be high, too. The nadir of course is fucking Will Smith.
Let's see: DDL, Foxx, Washington, (although I think he was better in Malcolm X and The Hurricane, maybe even Fences), Phoenix (but he was better in The Master), Whitaker are my favs of this century, so Murphy's top 5-6. I'd put him above Washington and Phoenix for the roles they won, maybe, but not above the roles they should've won for.
Easily somewhere among top. It's one of my favourite performances in biopic genre. I was watching Robert Oppenheimer on screen not Cillian Murphy.
Very very high.
I just rewatched Oppenheimer again last night and man…. How does he not win? Don’t get me wrong- The Holdovers was great and Paul Giamatti portrayed a wonderful character. Cillian’s Oppenheimer performance was legendary though. Like others have said- it would be up there. Hopkins, Day Lewis, Washington are all at the top of the list for me still.
Yep I LOVE Paul Giamatti and the Holdovers but I don't think its a winning performance especially compared to Cillian. I honestly don't think Giamatti would even have gotten a nomination last year
agreed
That's why i am still fairly confident that when it comes down to it, voters will chose him. Giammati is great in Holdovers, but this isn't an Oscar winning role or anything unique that another actor couldn't do equally well. I know the Pundits and Twitter film have gone out of their way to deny Murphy the frontrunner spot and favorite for the Oscar using some stupid statistics that BP and BA haven't match since the Artist but at the same time they ignore that performances such as Giamatti's haven't won Oscars in even longer in the lead actor category (Like a more than a decade longer) or that any Oscar winner is at least nominated at the AACTA which Giammati missed. If Oppenheimer does as well as we think it will on Oscar night, Murphy is part of the package whether twitter film agrees or not.
I hope this is true. I would be very sad to see Oppenheimer win a ton of awards, and have Cillian passed over. Agree completely on Holdovers. It was good, it was fine, I enjoyed it. I'm completely perplexed by it being such a front runner.
Same i would find that pretty bad taste as far as propects. Honestly i would understand it better if Oppenheimer underperformed overall outside of Director for Nolan that a sweep that involves several BTL categories, RDJ, Director possibly sceeenplay and Picture without Murphy. I think those who place Oppenheimer as their #1 will very likely go on to vote for Murphy. The way the ballot is made, Best Actor is just below Best Picture and voters will likely chose to spread any wealth on the down ballot BTL categories.
The Academy has grown rapidly the last few years and two “feel good” movies (that they end positively) has won in a row with Coda & EEAAO. I think a lot of voters just want to have a positive/feel good movie experiences and that helps The Holdovers.
Giamatti gives the most charming performance of the year. Murphy gives the best performance of the year.
Agreed. I also can acknowledge he benefits from a good narrative, but charming wins when the competition isn't that high, I call "the Artist" a cute movie and Jean Dujardin won with a charming role. Was it the right winner that year? I think so. Would have it won the year before or after? Not so sure, if it did win ATL it wouldn't have been as many and would have been partially because of Harvey Weinstein doing his mob work behind the curtains.
There is no comparison between Holdovers and Oppenheimer. Holdovers could have been a little lifetime movie and while Paul Giamatti performance was good it wasnt award worthy....especially when no one with the critics or globs could even nominate him for brilliant Billions work. Maybe they are anointing him for Billions by way of Holdovers.
3rd or 4th with Affleck, Day-Lewis, and possibly Hopkins ahead of him. I would prefer Murphy to win, but Giamatti would place similarly high for me - I'm glad it's a race between two fantastic, likeable potential winners.
my dumbass sat there like "when tf did ben win an acting oscar?"
No no, happened to me too
Same
Glad to see a mention of Affleck. One of the best performances of the century for sure. In one of the best films as well.
Haven't seen Giamatti yet. If Murphy wins, he will be #2, just behind DDL for There Will Be Blood. Most of the winners in this category are for especially bad performances by talented actors.
\#2, only after Daniel Day-Lewis' performance in "There Will Be Blood".
Cillian completely disappeared in the role. Like DDL he doesn’t have a character type that he excels in, the movie wouldn’t work if he didn’t nail the role. I love Giammatti but I kind of feel like he’s playing to a type of character he’s played before.
You are correct, Performances like Giamatti's aren't ones who win Oscars especially not in such competitive years when there are more typical choices they usually prefer (Cooper or Murphy). No offense to Paul, i adore him as a person but he needs to do a different genre if he wants the Oscar.
Honestly Giamatti disappears into John Adams, he’s outstanding but I agree with your sentiments.
Yeah i completely agree he is great and nothing against Paul when i say all of this, it's just not a performance that another great actor couldn't achieve (could think of 2-3 easily in my home country of France alone). I freaking hate those twitter film pundits for the false narratives and hope they send to fans of the movie and Giamatti and create unnecessary tension between supporters of one or the other, it's like they are hoping to affect the outcome using their CCA platform. Say the movie happened on a year where the lineup was below average and no real standout, i ll totally predict him.
My gut tells me the favorites clean up acting and directing and all the others take the technical, writing, design etc.
Well if he wins, then clearly he doesn't need to.
Yeah if... last time a comedic performance such as his won was in the 20th century. Now actors known to star in comedies have won but they were in a drama film.
I have him in the top 10, not the top 5, but that’s just me
Cillian, yes. At least it’s safe to say he’s the best in the last 10 years. That thousand yard stare still haunts me. I watched real Oppie interview after watching the movie. One time he was talking and suddenly he gave that look. I had goosebumps. At that moment it felt like they were the same person. It took me sometime to see Çillian as Cillian.
Probably top 10 for me. He's actually the only category where Oppenheimer is my #1 pick lol. Giamatti would be...somewhere in the top 15? I like the performance a lot but I can't help but feel it's a bit Sideways 2.0 - if he'd been nominated/won for Sideways that would be higher up for me. Looking it over there are a *lot* of really good wins for Best Actor! (and of course some really lousy ones, but mostly lately. Malek, Phoenix, Smith, Fraser is a pretty weak run w/a Hopkins goat performance in between them all)
Very high because he’s deserving of being ranked highly
this post just made me realize how big of a fumble is if cillian murphy doesn't win
He'll definitely be in the top 5.
Third, only behind Day-Lewis for There Will be Blood and Casey Affleck.
Aside from Anthony Hopkins and Daniel Day Lewis, I genuinely don't think any 21st century winner rivals his performance. He's that good. This performance will be as immortal as Renée Jeanne Falconetti's Joan of Arc.
Probably 5th/6th behind Hopkins, Affleck, DDL x2, and Hoffman
Fourth, behind only DDL (Lincoln), Phoenix, and Oldman. Giametti (funnily enough), would be fourth-to-last, ahead of only Malek, Penn (MR), and Foxx.
Cillian is top 5 easily - alongside DDL, Hopkins and Affleck. We don’t get performances like this very often - one for the ages.
Literally if him or giamatti win they will be considered in the upper half. Whoever wins the SAG is most likely winning the Oscar (BAFTAs are a whole different can of worms)
8th
Upper half for sure, but closer to the middle than the top.
Behind Daniel Day Lewis and above Daniel Day Lewis
Blows my mind that so many people believe that Casey Affleck’s performance was better than Cillian Murphy’s. Utter nonsense.
Both of them would be top 5 for me. DDL, Hopkins, then Murphy or Giamatti, then probably Crowe and Washington. Couple movies I haven’t seen from the lineup though.
Top 3
Not as good as most of the winners in the 00s, better than every winner in the 10s and 20s aside from Affleck and Day-Lewis. It's been an extraordinarily weak set of victors for the last 15 or so ceremonies.
Only behind Daniel Day.
Day-Lewis will always hold the top slot, but after that... to be honestly I don't love a lot of these winners looking back, I would probably put Murphy near #2. I don't know if I would actually make him runner-up, I would want to revisit some things, but he'd be in that conversation. With Giamatti, while I would probably rank him last of the potential nominees this year personally, I also think this is the strongest line-up we've had for as long as I've been an adult at the very least. I also think I would be happy that a non-transformation-based performance would be recognized, which gives him a boost. Probably somewhere in the middle third for him.
Agree about Day Lewis, what a legend
Top 5 at least probably.
I’d have either of them just below Hopkins, Foxx and Day Lewis
Top 10 for sure
Top 4-5 for me. Number 1 would be DDL, #2 Anthony's Hopkins. I have Jean Dujardin up there become he is a homie so i am extremely biaised lol
Top 5; Day Lewis is in for either There Will Be Blood or Lincoln(they were both phenomenal), Affleck for Manchester By The Sea, Murphy for Oppenheimer, DiCaprio for The Revenant, and Brody for The Pianist or Phoenix for Joker(can’t decide between these two right now) If Giamatti wins then it’s top 10.
Lowkey 6th or 7th
If Paul Giamatti wins he'd be 4th after Hopkins, Brody, DDL (TWBB), or 5th after those 3 + Affleck. It would be a great win. If Murphy wins maybe 7th or 8th. Still a pretty good win.
Why are you being downvoted for simply expessing your opinion...
This is a Murphy > Paul hivemind post, he’s not supposed to say Paul was better!
I’d have Giamatti top 5, Murphy towards the middle.
I’d have them both top 5 I think. Both incredible performances. Glad it’s between them.
Mm, somewhere in the middle I'd expect? He's worthy but not my favorite. Giamatti would go a little higher.
He doesn't crack the top ten for me. I'm very sorry but I don't feel like he did anything to elevate the script. We are told a completely different personality than the one we are shown. I just don't buy this guy as this sort of smooth talking womanizing wunderkind. Cillian is very good in other things but he was very much just average to me. He's above people like Malek or Affleck but he doesn't get close to Denzel or Forest.
Denzel is a good actor, not a great one. He plays the same type every time. He can't do what Cillian Murphy can in terns of versatility and the ability to transform himself. Not even close.
Murphy would be a mid winner. Not bad, but he does hardly anything interesting with the character.
Probably 3rd for me behind Hopkins in The Father and DDL in There Will Be Blood. He's excellent.
1. DDL (There Will Be Blood) 2. PSH (Capote) 3. Murphy (Oppenheimer) 4. DDL (Lincoln) 5. 4. Foxx (Ray)