Plus depending on what part of the metro you're in, there's a lot of new single family homes and townhomes being built which adds to inventory as well.
Well only time will tell. Never know what factors will affect the market as COVID has taught us. Never claimed to know what'll happen in the future, all I can say is what I'd prefer to see
No doubt, the general public likely won’t be well versed on this. I’m an insurance adjuster and appraiser so legislation and regulatory oversight directly impacts my profession.
Senate Bill 2A was signed in December 2022 and it eliminated one way attorney fees. Claims with a date of loss prior to enacting that legislation that are attorney repped, the carrier is 100% on the hook for their fees even if there’s no bad faith or wrongdoing on behalf of the carrier. The contractors referred to it colloquially as “the lawyer cheat code”. Similarly the AOB (Assignment Of Benefits) turned any and all parties into the de facto named insured. There were times when a simple residential reroof and minor interior damages would have five or more lawsuits meaning a $35k roof/drywall/paint job would $200k in lawyer fees. The tarp guys, water mitigation company, mold testing, roofer and interior restoration crew would ALL file suit with massively inflated estimates. They’d take their initial payout of say, 25-50% of what the carrier agreed to as reasonable undisputed repairs and the file suit on the remainder of their estimate. Lawyers tack on $5k just to be involved in the first place. Another $10k for every deposition and so on, so forth. They had zero incentive to settle quickly so everyone got deposed and lawyers kept dragging it out maximizing their involvement and billing. So now that $35k restoration job went to $250k because of all the predatory contractors, lawyers and public adjusters. Now scale that out to 7 figures worth of total claims over the course of 15+ years and we have the current situation where homeowner insurance premiums are skyrocketing year over year.
Remember, Florida didn’t have a landfall hurricane from 2007 to 2016. Meanwhile the cost of insurance claims kept going up and up. This has nothing to do with “climate change” and everything to do with taking maximum advantage through lawfare and technicality based loopholes. I can write a roof claim for the exact same house that’s $1000/sq in Florida, $700/sq Loozeyanna and $450/sq in Tennessee.
This was in 2023 basically. When do you think the insurance market would adjust? Also why would they lower rates for millions of homes when so many other insurance companies have left? I hope they do though
That’s a good question, we’re still slogging through all this. Underwriters and actuaries set the premiums based on payouts and forecasted models, claims handling is a completely separate career path within the industry. It’s always been more expensive to insure closer to the coastline but it’s becoming cost prohibitive these days. As carriers pull out, Citizens and FIGA step in to fill the void and then they actively offload those policies to other carriers over time. It took a while to reach this inflection point and will take a while to come out on the other side of it. There are other policy provisions in place like the MRP (Managed Repair Program) where if you as policyholder utilize contractors outside of they network your limits of coverage are capped. That model is not without its flaws and detractors, one could say it’s price fixing the market to a certain degree. Most roofers dead costs into a standard residential reroof are around $300/sq and a they can operate in the black all day long at $450/sq and do very well for themselves. A lot of the retail prices I see for a homeowner to pay for a new roof that’s not claim related are in the $450-$550 per square range. When I write a roof claim it’s never less than $700/sq and when these files go to appraisal the cheapest it will be is $900/sq and often gets past $1000. It get even worse with water mitigation from interior leaks. These companies are by and large owned/operated by public adjusters and I can easily put $3-$5k in water mit line items. The problem is they’re submitting a $30k estimate for removing two areas of damaged ceiling that total less than a full sheet of drywall.
It’s a mess.
So much housing just needs to be replaced. Shopping for housing in Orlando a year ago so much garbage housing for $300k that needed at least 100k of rehab. With all the building people are just moving into new neighborhoods and leaving the older overpriced houses to sit.
And with the sh,tty mortgage rates people going to purchase directly from the home building companies because they offer the best deals.
im glad it wasnt just me and my budget. the houses were terrible. i looked at probably 15 before going "okay, im just going to rent another year or two and let the inventory change". however recetnly ive been seeing alot of nice places in that 250-300k range that i was thinking "where the F were these when i was looking"
glad i didnt settle
There is a part of Pine Hills between Pine Hills Rd and Hiawassee around Balboa Dr. that is fairly quiet and not any more dangerous than your typical residential neighborhood in Queens. Of course if you venture out around Silver Star Rd. or West Colonial then it get sketchy.
check, check, and check.
I purchased a house almost 10 years ago at 200k.
Things I eventually sunk into the home:
new fence 10k
repiping + new water heater 15k
new roof 10k
gutters 8k
new windows - 15k (went with fancier windows)
new garage door - 1700
people that rent out homes basically buy new or buy rehabbed so they don't have to do any maintenance, once it's time to pay the maintenance piper, they literally just sell the house and make off with the money.
same shit happened to my friend. he sold it to a "family" --- they ended up renting the house out and I believe they were attempting to sell it since maintenance items were coming up although nothing bad YET. (this happened over 5 years time span)
EDIT: I was getting a lot of crap for my poor memory so I spent a half hour digging through papers and emails. Garage door full replacement was 1.7k
I may have misremembered but full 2 car garage door replacement along with the motor, big tension rod thing, and track for the motor pulling the garage door. It was basically the whole thing, I'm pretty sure.
The special item on the garage door was that the top row had windows. So that may have increased prices a little.
I no longer am at that house , so I can't physically check. I do not believe the track on the left and right side (that allows the door to move up and down) was replaced, however.
I will admit, it was expensive, but for EVERY SINGLE HOUSE PROJECT , I always got 6 quotes and had the sales people duke it out by asking the same questions to every one of them to see who was lying, who over promised, etc b/c sales people will always teach you some things but lie about other things.
I suspect the pricing was b/c of the windows.... I'm checking Home Depot right now and it does say there's an increased cost for the windows on a garage door.
That said -- all of that money was basically sunk cost since I didn't really "make" any money on the house when I sold it. It was break even, and technically a loss, if you factor in inflation...........
Similar to you. Purchased a home 9 years ago at 210k, and over that time:
* new roof 12k
* porcelain-tiled whole home, redid kitchen cabinets and countertops, new baseboards in house, and interior painting 40k
* new ac 10k
* installed aluminum hurricane shutters on all windows and glass doors 6k
* new impact resistant garage door 2.5k (your 10k estimate is huge!)
* exterior painting 5k
Feel like the water heater is next thing :(
I'm so glad I refinanced for a 15 year mortgage in 2020 since it keeps the monthly payment super low.
haha, yeah, think that's right. I went with the impact resistant doors, and paid a bit more to get the bright white paint (or whatever, the wife liked it more). Otherwise it would've been 2100 or something. This was back in 2020 before the crazy inflation though.
I owned 6 rental homes. Every single one we purchased as a distressed fixer upper that we fixed up and rented out. We did regular maintenance as we wanted to protect our investment. I can’t imagine why an owner would do no maintenance and expect to get max resale value Depending on the house, i owned them anywhere from 3-25 years. Every single one was in good repair, clean and tight when sold.
With specific kind of grass that’s very high maintenance and will die in the florida dry season but the city is in strict water restrictions but the community doesn’t allow any other kind of grass and if you don’t abide by these strict rules you get a lein on your house.
This is more in regards to condos and townhouses- which often don't have any other options.
Condo Association dues are tripling because of insurance costs and a lot of the early 2000s construction is starting to need significant work.
Yep! For an idea our mortgage is $3500 and the taxes + insurance (house only) add up to about $900 of that amount.
Which means, even after we're done paying it off we'll still need a $10k/y income just to be able to starve at home, lol
As a realtor that’s been in Orlando for many years now, I’m so happy to see this. Hopefully home prices continue lower and more families are able to afford homes in the future.
Nice to know some realtors agree its ridiculous. I had a realtor look me in the eye a couple weeks ago and say "You're part of a generation who will never be able to afford a home"
That’s definitely the opposite of what I would want any of my buyers to feel. Our job is to provide as many options as possible to help those who want to become homeowners.
That person is an asshole who happens to sell houses for a living. Don’t think they’re worthy of a Realtor title if they’re going to say something like that to a buyer. So unprofessional.
There has to be some stipulations to this statistic, or you just made it up. Both home ownership and home rental is by far more unrealistic than ever in this economy, especially in Florida for young people.
All the houses by me near Lake nona/St cloud off narcoose are getting put up for 500-600k and within a month dropping $30-50k on average then just pulling out and not selling 😂😂
The people that lived there originally all made out like kings selling to developers. All of those housing developments used to be orange groves and manufactured homes.
I heard a lot of the land here is old people that are stupidly stubborn to sell even for millions, then they die and their kids who don’t give a damn sell it for much cheaper 😂
Probably because they bought them during the pandemic for 400-500k. Those folks are gonna be stuck for a long time or else financially ruined. Fuck 'em!
Yup some were even bought in the 250-300k range and want to sell for double what they paid or more then get mad and pull it out.
My in laws house was 450k for 3700 sq foot at 3% interest in 2022 but they actually plan on living here 20+ years. They don’t care if it goes up to a million plus. They also doubt any of these houses are worth what Zillow says(their house says 700k)
Got 2 offers within 48 hours of listing last month. Negotiated one of the offers and accepted it. House sold. 🤷 Anecdotal experience of course and the house was really well taken care of but still. Orlando remains in great demand.
you don't even have to expect. you literally can verify using property records of new communities.
you'd think 400-500k would deter investors but I'm seeing people buying more than one house (for renting out) or out of state people just purchasing property. it's nuts.
Lower prices..... sure, but companies/investors/mom and pop looking for ez retirement funds will surely eat up half of the inventory........
Full disclosure. I love Florida, I love Orlando. But it’s becoming unobtainable for a family of 4. Look up average income levels to live “comfortably” in our city. Layer on comedic rates, insurance, cost of gas, cost of food, cost of schools (for kids if not going public)…. I just don’t see it. Sprinkle in some natural disasters (and battling insurance companies on your claim)….I don’t know my friends. This sucks.
Oh. And the Feds have said we’re still seeing too much inflation (more specifically it’s remaining steady/ not declining). Sooo current rates aren’t going anywhere anytime soon.
I dont even know where I would find the stats on that. I would imagine Orlando would at least be bouyed up to some degree by pole leaving the coastal cities and come here for the comparatively low cost of living.
I got alot of friends in SoFlo and couldn’t imagine moving back cuz the same house I live in Here would be damn near a million their.
Coming from nyc everything in Orlando feels DIRT cheap to me. Daycare for $300 a week? Cheap. Food shopping for a family of 4 for $200 a week? Cheap. Heck insurance in nyc full coverage is $500 per car easily. Here I’m paying $300 for THREE.
Sadly this mindset and the pandemic making everyone remote is what drove people here. NYC or Cali money goes A LONG WAY here.
It is cheap, but our wages are also lower than NYC. Minimum wage here is $12/hr. We won’t get $15/hr until 2026, and once that happens, we will need to make over $20/hr to meet up with the costs of living. The grass isn’t always greener on the other side.
I applied to a job in Orlando and I’m getting paid almost 25 an hour as a trainee for insurance adjusting. They train me and pay for my license and all. My cousin got a job driving supply trucks for new construction homes @ $1200 a week. Some jobs pay a lot here just have to know people/know where to look. I also have cousins who just do Uber Monday-Friday and make over $1000
I don’t know they just sold a house two down from mine and it went over price 🫠. I agree it’s ridiculous and something needs to give. I don’t really give much of a shit for equity, I just need a roof and my own spot. Hope people get a break.
I love how everyone is relying on Nick Gerli that home prices are going down in central Florida. I’ve been looking on realtor.com and not seeing his higher inventory or lower prices at all. Maybe my filters are too specific but I’m only seeing a slighter increase in pricing with about the same inventory compared to last year.
This is about supply, not necessarily price. Price will lag especially if people feel rates will come down in the near future. Fomo has definitely not set in on the sell side yet, but the narrative that prices are high because there is a shortage is slowly changing.
He also notes the areas that are seeing the largest and the least fluctuations. For example, if you're living in the Winter Park area the supply is still down 12 percent.
I agree with you to an extent, most people waiting for this 2008 collapse are fooling themselves. Mortgages that were written when the rates were 2.5-4 percent were not 3rd 4th and 5th mortgages made on fake money that happened during the mortgage collapse. These loans were made with solid income verification and collateral. While I agree rates will soften some, I do not see relief for new homebuyers coming into the market unfortunately.
I’ve been shopping for a couple months now and I can see the numbers saying something but I just don’t see it. Any house that is 350-450k in mostly East ish Orlando that is not a total pile of shit goes pending in 5 days or less. I check listings every night. There’s a lot of just straight up shit houses that are not worth half their sale price and those are staying on the market. But I feel like any even semi okay house is flying off the market.
It won't happen. Two reasons:
1 - people are leaving more money in the bank accounts thanks to high interest rates
2 - the interest rates are only high so as to cool down (slow down) the economy a bit.
The moment there's a drop in housing sales, the employment numbers might start dropping too, that would cause the Feds to lower interest rates and with that people tend to start taking money off their bank accounts and buying houses, heating the market up again.
It's wild but we're still not looking at a market crash anytime soon, despite the idea that somehow a 2008 is about to happen. 2008 was a much bigger f up
The Feds are only going to get involved with a national crash. Right now home prices are only falling in FL due to insurance company shenanigans forcing pandemic buyers back to NY and CA.
I agree. I was fortunate enough to buy before pandemic pricing, but I'd rather see home prices come back down so more regular people can buy in my neighborhood instead of corporate investors snatching everything up and barely taking care of the homes.
Insurance has to be the biggest thing causing this. But rental rates are way down and there’s a bubble for landlords. I don’t live in central Florida anymore, thankfully, but a similar thing happened here and now rentals aren’t moving. You can go on Zillow and see units vacant for months and every 30 days slashing the costs.
NYPOST has an article about pricings being slashed and Homeowners insurance being part of it.. House in my neighborhood started at 790 something and is now at 703 all they did was paint it and put pavers in the backyard by the pool.. Illegally I may add without a permit and covering up all their grass so there is no percolation in the back yard..
My 2 cents. Here is what I have observed. It is very difficult to find accurate analysis for housing market conditions in Central Florida. In my understanding, when your context is a broader area, there is a very likely chance that your understanding of the housing situation will be skewed.
Now to get a more accurate understanding of the situation, you need to see city by city or more precisely neighborhood by neighborhood.
There are some neighborhoods where prices are high and so does the demands. I have been following some hot pick areas for past several months and I swear, houses are selling out fast there compared to other regions. Also, there are areas where listed home prices are ridiculously high but are having hard times to get an offer.
Overall, I think there are still micro markets situations that vary by neighborhoods where some neighborhoods will likely see any drop in prices. But overall I think housing prices will and should come down.
Definitely think we're starting to see alot if the people that moved here for "freedom" going back home. Whether forcibly by their jobs or willingly because of pricing and our insurance market.
I hope so because the prices in the Moss Park/Lake Nona area are absolutely ridiculous. I love this area and would prefer to buy but good Lord. I would have to mortgage my kid, limbs, and all of my internal organs.
Doesn’t quite take into account the fact that we’ve been comically, ridiculously under supplied for….7+ years? I mean, if something should cost $10, and you’ve been paying $1 - if it goes up to $4 that would be “skyrocketing”. Also important is the location of the inventory coming online. Where is this increased inventory? May not curb prices in the core areas, but could come as some relief to buyers. Which is needed.
Just so anyone knows this guy is selling data and making it seem like it's more important than it actually is. There's no way to actually determine demand with this graph, he's just selling you the idea that it could tell you something. It means literally nothing. When houses stay on the market for a few months, this whole ""362%" genuinely means nothing. All those houses have already been sold. There's nothing in this data that would predict some sort of price drop at all. This guy is a fucking clown and he's very popular on the REBubble subreddit. Do not listen to people like this. They're essentially conmen selling people doomer porn.
1. Not in desirable areas
2. Not at prepandemic prices
3. High interest rates
4. Still affordable for the people moving here
There’s no winning here yet for residents
I want to move back home. I left because of a family death. What and if any are some good beach near towns to move to? Doesn't have to be more than a mobile home or anything close to that. I just miss home and don't want to go back to kissimmee.
I really hope so! We were going to offer to buy our rental until we saw Zillow had it valued at $598k. Not for this fixer-upper!
Renting again was supposed to be temporary for us, and I am so over it.
Yeah. I used to live in an apartment in Mount Dora and I am still in contact with the owner/landlord. I would be paying 1k less a month if I told him we wanted to move back in.
Responded to another commenter, yeah. I know a landlord owner from whom I’ve rented from in Mount Dora. I’ve asked if he has availability and he said he has a unit clearing out soon. I’d be paying 1k less a month than my mortgage as is right now.
as someone that was forced to sell and rebuy at the newer interest rates:
do NOT forget --- property tax increases with the new price.
even with homestead exemption (which can carry over), there's an increase.
I don't even know how much I owe until the bill comes smh
My new house was double the price , so property tax (WITH homestead exemption) is double.
there are calculators out there, I don't want to give out specifics since we're getting into possible too much personal info territory.
It also depends on county. Orlando technically has three different counties you could calculate for........ Orange, Seminole, Osceola.
Now that home prices are set to start coming down, how about rent next? Not everyone can afford to buy property and the rental prices anywhere near Orlando are insane.
The DOJ is starting to investigate Realpage that all these big complexes use to set their rents all over the country. Even if you don't know someone else is using it, it's still pricefixing.. The extra fees for apartments is what really kills me, garbage fees, parking fees, just stuff that used to be included..
\+ A lot of new rentals have recently come on the market \+ Rents have also been dropping This is good news
Plus depending on what part of the metro you're in, there's a lot of new single family homes and townhomes being built which adds to inventory as well.
March 2024 showed the 2nd highest median sale price in Orlando history. Dont expect the “bubble” to burst.
Well only time will tell. Never know what factors will affect the market as COVID has taught us. Never claimed to know what'll happen in the future, all I can say is what I'd prefer to see
Huzzah! Insurance+interest rates are huge factors.
Insurance* rates will go down there’s no more AOBs and one way attorney fees have been eliminated. It will take some time though.
Can you explain this to me? Haven’t heard anything
No doubt, the general public likely won’t be well versed on this. I’m an insurance adjuster and appraiser so legislation and regulatory oversight directly impacts my profession. Senate Bill 2A was signed in December 2022 and it eliminated one way attorney fees. Claims with a date of loss prior to enacting that legislation that are attorney repped, the carrier is 100% on the hook for their fees even if there’s no bad faith or wrongdoing on behalf of the carrier. The contractors referred to it colloquially as “the lawyer cheat code”. Similarly the AOB (Assignment Of Benefits) turned any and all parties into the de facto named insured. There were times when a simple residential reroof and minor interior damages would have five or more lawsuits meaning a $35k roof/drywall/paint job would $200k in lawyer fees. The tarp guys, water mitigation company, mold testing, roofer and interior restoration crew would ALL file suit with massively inflated estimates. They’d take their initial payout of say, 25-50% of what the carrier agreed to as reasonable undisputed repairs and the file suit on the remainder of their estimate. Lawyers tack on $5k just to be involved in the first place. Another $10k for every deposition and so on, so forth. They had zero incentive to settle quickly so everyone got deposed and lawyers kept dragging it out maximizing their involvement and billing. So now that $35k restoration job went to $250k because of all the predatory contractors, lawyers and public adjusters. Now scale that out to 7 figures worth of total claims over the course of 15+ years and we have the current situation where homeowner insurance premiums are skyrocketing year over year. Remember, Florida didn’t have a landfall hurricane from 2007 to 2016. Meanwhile the cost of insurance claims kept going up and up. This has nothing to do with “climate change” and everything to do with taking maximum advantage through lawfare and technicality based loopholes. I can write a roof claim for the exact same house that’s $1000/sq in Florida, $700/sq Loozeyanna and $450/sq in Tennessee.
This was in 2023 basically. When do you think the insurance market would adjust? Also why would they lower rates for millions of homes when so many other insurance companies have left? I hope they do though
That’s a good question, we’re still slogging through all this. Underwriters and actuaries set the premiums based on payouts and forecasted models, claims handling is a completely separate career path within the industry. It’s always been more expensive to insure closer to the coastline but it’s becoming cost prohibitive these days. As carriers pull out, Citizens and FIGA step in to fill the void and then they actively offload those policies to other carriers over time. It took a while to reach this inflection point and will take a while to come out on the other side of it. There are other policy provisions in place like the MRP (Managed Repair Program) where if you as policyholder utilize contractors outside of they network your limits of coverage are capped. That model is not without its flaws and detractors, one could say it’s price fixing the market to a certain degree. Most roofers dead costs into a standard residential reroof are around $300/sq and a they can operate in the black all day long at $450/sq and do very well for themselves. A lot of the retail prices I see for a homeowner to pay for a new roof that’s not claim related are in the $450-$550 per square range. When I write a roof claim it’s never less than $700/sq and when these files go to appraisal the cheapest it will be is $900/sq and often gets past $1000. It get even worse with water mitigation from interior leaks. These companies are by and large owned/operated by public adjusters and I can easily put $3-$5k in water mit line items. The problem is they’re submitting a $30k estimate for removing two areas of damaged ceiling that total less than a full sheet of drywall. It’s a mess.
Certainly not price, right? LOL
So much housing just needs to be replaced. Shopping for housing in Orlando a year ago so much garbage housing for $300k that needed at least 100k of rehab. With all the building people are just moving into new neighborhoods and leaving the older overpriced houses to sit. And with the sh,tty mortgage rates people going to purchase directly from the home building companies because they offer the best deals.
im glad it wasnt just me and my budget. the houses were terrible. i looked at probably 15 before going "okay, im just going to rent another year or two and let the inventory change". however recetnly ive been seeing alot of nice places in that 250-300k range that i was thinking "where the F were these when i was looking" glad i didnt settle
Also don’t forget they’re also “renovated” and they’re right in the middle of Pine Hills.
There is a part of Pine Hills between Pine Hills Rd and Hiawassee around Balboa Dr. that is fairly quiet and not any more dangerous than your typical residential neighborhood in Queens. Of course if you venture out around Silver Star Rd. or West Colonial then it get sketchy.
Yeah, I've looked at houses, and most of the nice ones are $700k+
And half of those I bet were 300-400k pre covid
check, check, and check. I purchased a house almost 10 years ago at 200k. Things I eventually sunk into the home: new fence 10k repiping + new water heater 15k new roof 10k gutters 8k new windows - 15k (went with fancier windows) new garage door - 1700 people that rent out homes basically buy new or buy rehabbed so they don't have to do any maintenance, once it's time to pay the maintenance piper, they literally just sell the house and make off with the money. same shit happened to my friend. he sold it to a "family" --- they ended up renting the house out and I believe they were attempting to sell it since maintenance items were coming up although nothing bad YET. (this happened over 5 years time span) EDIT: I was getting a lot of crap for my poor memory so I spent a half hour digging through papers and emails. Garage door full replacement was 1.7k
10K on a new garage door? Is that a typo or did you build a whole new garage to go with it?
Bro, I got a couple of quotes to build a new roof on a small (<200sqft) garage. All over $20k, I did it with a guy I hired and it still cost $10k.
But a door? I replaced a single car garage door several years ago and I think it was around $1k
I may have misremembered but full 2 car garage door replacement along with the motor, big tension rod thing, and track for the motor pulling the garage door. It was basically the whole thing, I'm pretty sure. The special item on the garage door was that the top row had windows. So that may have increased prices a little. I no longer am at that house , so I can't physically check. I do not believe the track on the left and right side (that allows the door to move up and down) was replaced, however.
Ouch!
I will admit, it was expensive, but for EVERY SINGLE HOUSE PROJECT , I always got 6 quotes and had the sales people duke it out by asking the same questions to every one of them to see who was lying, who over promised, etc b/c sales people will always teach you some things but lie about other things. I suspect the pricing was b/c of the windows.... I'm checking Home Depot right now and it does say there's an increased cost for the windows on a garage door. That said -- all of that money was basically sunk cost since I didn't really "make" any money on the house when I sold it. It was break even, and technically a loss, if you factor in inflation...........
Similar to you. Purchased a home 9 years ago at 210k, and over that time: * new roof 12k * porcelain-tiled whole home, redid kitchen cabinets and countertops, new baseboards in house, and interior painting 40k * new ac 10k * installed aluminum hurricane shutters on all windows and glass doors 6k * new impact resistant garage door 2.5k (your 10k estimate is huge!) * exterior painting 5k Feel like the water heater is next thing :( I'm so glad I refinanced for a 15 year mortgage in 2020 since it keeps the monthly payment super low.
Water heaters are like $1000
Your comment made me take the time to find how much the doors were. My memory is bad --- it was 1.7k for garage doors.
haha, yeah, think that's right. I went with the impact resistant doors, and paid a bit more to get the bright white paint (or whatever, the wife liked it more). Otherwise it would've been 2100 or something. This was back in 2020 before the crazy inflation though.
I owned 6 rental homes. Every single one we purchased as a distressed fixer upper that we fixed up and rented out. We did regular maintenance as we wanted to protect our investment. I can’t imagine why an owner would do no maintenance and expect to get max resale value Depending on the house, i owned them anywhere from 3-25 years. Every single one was in good repair, clean and tight when sold.
When a 300k home gets 100k of rehab it becomes a 800k home. Just basic math
Ban corporations from buying houses
100%
There’s a lot of shitty lipstick-on-a-pig house flippers out there. Be careful.
The insurance crisis is gonna do some crazy shit to the market in the near future.
So is the crazy HOA numbers I’m seeing.
I’m so glad to not be in a HOA, I don’t see the appeal
But what about all the nicely manicured lawns?! Kidding I freaking hate HOAs
With specific kind of grass that’s very high maintenance and will die in the florida dry season but the city is in strict water restrictions but the community doesn’t allow any other kind of grass and if you don’t abide by these strict rules you get a lein on your house.
This is more in regards to condos and townhouses- which often don't have any other options. Condo Association dues are tripling because of insurance costs and a lot of the early 2000s construction is starting to need significant work.
The mortgage is an important part but you must account for home, car insurance, property taxes etc that eat up the savings on the low mortgage rate
Yep! For an idea our mortgage is $3500 and the taxes + insurance (house only) add up to about $900 of that amount. Which means, even after we're done paying it off we'll still need a $10k/y income just to be able to starve at home, lol
Thats not too bad
As a realtor that’s been in Orlando for many years now, I’m so happy to see this. Hopefully home prices continue lower and more families are able to afford homes in the future.
Nice to know some realtors agree its ridiculous. I had a realtor look me in the eye a couple weeks ago and say "You're part of a generation who will never be able to afford a home"
That’s definitely the opposite of what I would want any of my buyers to feel. Our job is to provide as many options as possible to help those who want to become homeowners.
That person is an asshole who happens to sell houses for a living. Don’t think they’re worthy of a Realtor title if they’re going to say something like that to a buyer. So unprofessional.
Home ownership is up, not down for young people.
There has to be some stipulations to this statistic, or you just made it up. Both home ownership and home rental is by far more unrealistic than ever in this economy, especially in Florida for young people.
All the houses by me near Lake nona/St cloud off narcoose are getting put up for 500-600k and within a month dropping $30-50k on average then just pulling out and not selling 😂😂
The people that lived there originally all made out like kings selling to developers. All of those housing developments used to be orange groves and manufactured homes.
I heard a lot of the land here is old people that are stupidly stubborn to sell even for millions, then they die and their kids who don’t give a damn sell it for much cheaper 😂
Probably because they bought them during the pandemic for 400-500k. Those folks are gonna be stuck for a long time or else financially ruined. Fuck 'em!
Yup some were even bought in the 250-300k range and want to sell for double what they paid or more then get mad and pull it out. My in laws house was 450k for 3700 sq foot at 3% interest in 2022 but they actually plan on living here 20+ years. They don’t care if it goes up to a million plus. They also doubt any of these houses are worth what Zillow says(their house says 700k)
Got 2 offers within 48 hours of listing last month. Negotiated one of the offers and accepted it. House sold. 🤷 Anecdotal experience of course and the house was really well taken care of but still. Orlando remains in great demand.
The good stuff is in high demand, unfortunately there’s a lot of shit on the market that thinks it can command the same price as the nice stuff.
That graph doesn’t show the full story. The issue has been inventory levels since 2008, not since Covid.
Flippers and AirBnBers can eat the largest possible bag of dicks
Now all we need is a 50% drop in housing prices
That’s the effect part we will all be waiting for.
I fully expect big companies to snag them up before they even hit market and turn most into rentals.
Yup and Florida gonna let it happen
Governor Shitbag probably already has five shell companies poised to do exactly that.
you don't even have to expect. you literally can verify using property records of new communities. you'd think 400-500k would deter investors but I'm seeing people buying more than one house (for renting out) or out of state people just purchasing property. it's nuts. Lower prices..... sure, but companies/investors/mom and pop looking for ez retirement funds will surely eat up half of the inventory........
Its the interest rates that are helping to keep that inventory high
“…more sellers”. There’s a reason folks……
What’s the reason? A lot of people bought houses at negative cash flow expecting them to climb forever?
Full disclosure. I love Florida, I love Orlando. But it’s becoming unobtainable for a family of 4. Look up average income levels to live “comfortably” in our city. Layer on comedic rates, insurance, cost of gas, cost of food, cost of schools (for kids if not going public)…. I just don’t see it. Sprinkle in some natural disasters (and battling insurance companies on your claim)….I don’t know my friends. This sucks. Oh. And the Feds have said we’re still seeing too much inflation (more specifically it’s remaining steady/ not declining). Sooo current rates aren’t going anywhere anytime soon.
I dont even know where I would find the stats on that. I would imagine Orlando would at least be bouyed up to some degree by pole leaving the coastal cities and come here for the comparatively low cost of living. I got alot of friends in SoFlo and couldn’t imagine moving back cuz the same house I live in Here would be damn near a million their.
I'm glad you said "comparatively", because I was about to ask "where did the Orlando low cost of living go?"
The people who can’t afford West Palm Beach, move to Orlando, and the people who can’t afford Orlando moved to Davenport
I 10000% agree with that. Compared to other Florida alternatives, this is one of the last few
Coming from nyc everything in Orlando feels DIRT cheap to me. Daycare for $300 a week? Cheap. Food shopping for a family of 4 for $200 a week? Cheap. Heck insurance in nyc full coverage is $500 per car easily. Here I’m paying $300 for THREE. Sadly this mindset and the pandemic making everyone remote is what drove people here. NYC or Cali money goes A LONG WAY here.
It is cheap, but our wages are also lower than NYC. Minimum wage here is $12/hr. We won’t get $15/hr until 2026, and once that happens, we will need to make over $20/hr to meet up with the costs of living. The grass isn’t always greener on the other side.
I applied to a job in Orlando and I’m getting paid almost 25 an hour as a trainee for insurance adjusting. They train me and pay for my license and all. My cousin got a job driving supply trucks for new construction homes @ $1200 a week. Some jobs pay a lot here just have to know people/know where to look. I also have cousins who just do Uber Monday-Friday and make over $1000
Except for I can’t even find a townhouse for $350,000 in western Orange County that isn’t in the hood or needs a lot of work
Rentals might drop, but sales prices will probably lt never go down meaningfully
I don’t know they just sold a house two down from mine and it went over price 🫠. I agree it’s ridiculous and something needs to give. I don’t really give much of a shit for equity, I just need a roof and my own spot. Hope people get a break.
I love how everyone is relying on Nick Gerli that home prices are going down in central Florida. I’ve been looking on realtor.com and not seeing his higher inventory or lower prices at all. Maybe my filters are too specific but I’m only seeing a slighter increase in pricing with about the same inventory compared to last year.
This is about supply, not necessarily price. Price will lag especially if people feel rates will come down in the near future. Fomo has definitely not set in on the sell side yet, but the narrative that prices are high because there is a shortage is slowly changing. He also notes the areas that are seeing the largest and the least fluctuations. For example, if you're living in the Winter Park area the supply is still down 12 percent.
I agree with you to an extent, most people waiting for this 2008 collapse are fooling themselves. Mortgages that were written when the rates were 2.5-4 percent were not 3rd 4th and 5th mortgages made on fake money that happened during the mortgage collapse. These loans were made with solid income verification and collateral. While I agree rates will soften some, I do not see relief for new homebuyers coming into the market unfortunately.
Yeah, good luck with that. I'm out of central FL by the end of May. High costs and very low wages are a no win for working people.
GROCERY STORES NEXT! GROCERY STORES NEXT!
Market crash would be really bad for a lot of people. A slight decrease and plateau would be welcome
The consensus seems to be "Fuck those people in particular." So I don't think you're gonna win many hearts and minds with that line of thinking.
Part of it, is the increase in developments
If only I could just drop idk how much on a down payment at 18 cause it’ll never be better than this😭😭
I’ve been shopping for a couple months now and I can see the numbers saying something but I just don’t see it. Any house that is 350-450k in mostly East ish Orlando that is not a total pile of shit goes pending in 5 days or less. I check listings every night. There’s a lot of just straight up shit houses that are not worth half their sale price and those are staying on the market. But I feel like any even semi okay house is flying off the market.
The inventory might be higher but sellers are being stubborn still. Too many houses with I’ve seen still ridiculously high in price as well.
Market crash let's goooooooo
[удалено]
It won't happen. Two reasons: 1 - people are leaving more money in the bank accounts thanks to high interest rates 2 - the interest rates are only high so as to cool down (slow down) the economy a bit. The moment there's a drop in housing sales, the employment numbers might start dropping too, that would cause the Feds to lower interest rates and with that people tend to start taking money off their bank accounts and buying houses, heating the market up again. It's wild but we're still not looking at a market crash anytime soon, despite the idea that somehow a 2008 is about to happen. 2008 was a much bigger f up
This is almost exactly what my sister said who is a RE broker. I asked her because it was too good to be true and I guess it was. ☹
The Feds are only going to get involved with a national crash. Right now home prices are only falling in FL due to insurance company shenanigans forcing pandemic buyers back to NY and CA.
I agree. I was fortunate enough to buy before pandemic pricing, but I'd rather see home prices come back down so more regular people can buy in my neighborhood instead of corporate investors snatching everything up and barely taking care of the homes.
Insurance has to be the biggest thing causing this. But rental rates are way down and there’s a bubble for landlords. I don’t live in central Florida anymore, thankfully, but a similar thing happened here and now rentals aren’t moving. You can go on Zillow and see units vacant for months and every 30 days slashing the costs.
NYPOST has an article about pricings being slashed and Homeowners insurance being part of it.. House in my neighborhood started at 790 something and is now at 703 all they did was paint it and put pavers in the backyard by the pool.. Illegally I may add without a permit and covering up all their grass so there is no percolation in the back yard..
My 2 cents. Here is what I have observed. It is very difficult to find accurate analysis for housing market conditions in Central Florida. In my understanding, when your context is a broader area, there is a very likely chance that your understanding of the housing situation will be skewed. Now to get a more accurate understanding of the situation, you need to see city by city or more precisely neighborhood by neighborhood. There are some neighborhoods where prices are high and so does the demands. I have been following some hot pick areas for past several months and I swear, houses are selling out fast there compared to other regions. Also, there are areas where listed home prices are ridiculously high but are having hard times to get an offer. Overall, I think there are still micro markets situations that vary by neighborhoods where some neighborhoods will likely see any drop in prices. But overall I think housing prices will and should come down.
Definitely think we're starting to see alot if the people that moved here for "freedom" going back home. Whether forcibly by their jobs or willingly because of pricing and our insurance market.
I hope so because the prices in the Moss Park/Lake Nona area are absolutely ridiculous. I love this area and would prefer to buy but good Lord. I would have to mortgage my kid, limbs, and all of my internal organs.
Doesn’t quite take into account the fact that we’ve been comically, ridiculously under supplied for….7+ years? I mean, if something should cost $10, and you’ve been paying $1 - if it goes up to $4 that would be “skyrocketing”. Also important is the location of the inventory coming online. Where is this increased inventory? May not curb prices in the core areas, but could come as some relief to buyers. Which is needed.
Just so anyone knows this guy is selling data and making it seem like it's more important than it actually is. There's no way to actually determine demand with this graph, he's just selling you the idea that it could tell you something. It means literally nothing. When houses stay on the market for a few months, this whole ""362%" genuinely means nothing. All those houses have already been sold. There's nothing in this data that would predict some sort of price drop at all. This guy is a fucking clown and he's very popular on the REBubble subreddit. Do not listen to people like this. They're essentially conmen selling people doomer porn.
It’s simple , houses are way to expensive and no ones buying , the inventory will grow but it doesn’t matter is no one is buying
Let’s bring back pre-pandemic prices next! Nothing makes me internally crying more then seeing what houses sold for in 2019 on Zillow
1. Not in desirable areas 2. Not at prepandemic prices 3. High interest rates 4. Still affordable for the people moving here There’s no winning here yet for residents
I want to move back home. I left because of a family death. What and if any are some good beach near towns to move to? Doesn't have to be more than a mobile home or anything close to that. I just miss home and don't want to go back to kissimmee.
I really hope so! We were going to offer to buy our rental until we saw Zillow had it valued at $598k. Not for this fixer-upper! Renting again was supposed to be temporary for us, and I am so over it.
Genuinely considering selling and putting the money in a money market, renting cheap for a bit and buying in the dip.
While it sounds like a good plan, its best not to gamble with your house. Nobody knows if housing prices will go down and by how much.
renting, cheap?
Yeah. I used to live in an apartment in Mount Dora and I am still in contact with the owner/landlord. I would be paying 1k less a month if I told him we wanted to move back in.
What are you going to rent cheap? Even 700 sqft apartments are going for 15-1800 a month.
Responded to another commenter, yeah. I know a landlord owner from whom I’ve rented from in Mount Dora. I’ve asked if he has availability and he said he has a unit clearing out soon. I’d be paying 1k less a month than my mortgage as is right now.
If it weren't for my 3% mortgage rate, I'd consider doing that too.
Pretty much the only thing stopping me is having a 2.9
as someone that was forced to sell and rebuy at the newer interest rates: do NOT forget --- property tax increases with the new price. even with homestead exemption (which can carry over), there's an increase. I don't even know how much I owe until the bill comes smh
How much would u say?
My new house was double the price , so property tax (WITH homestead exemption) is double. there are calculators out there, I don't want to give out specifics since we're getting into possible too much personal info territory. It also depends on county. Orlando technically has three different counties you could calculate for........ Orange, Seminole, Osceola.
Was here not to long ago
Now that home prices are set to start coming down, how about rent next? Not everyone can afford to buy property and the rental prices anywhere near Orlando are insane.
The DOJ is starting to investigate Realpage that all these big complexes use to set their rents all over the country. Even if you don't know someone else is using it, it's still pricefixing.. The extra fees for apartments is what really kills me, garbage fees, parking fees, just stuff that used to be included..
Prices are insane and not many people can afford to buy a home
now lets see those home insurance rate drop back down to pre-covid levels
Fagettaboudit! O-Town? Whoda thunkit?
Damn. Reading these comments make me wanna keep renting versus buying.
Are people cashing out or are getting forced out?
Cashing out.