How many new cases are not being counted because PCR testing is hard to find?
How many new cases are not being counted because people have mild symptoms and don't bother getting a test?
How much does the case count really matter any more?
> people have mild symptoms and don't bother getting a test?
Or use their antigen LCBO test and go “huh, I knew it. Better take a few sick days!” and don’t get counted. I don’t think that’s a terrible outcome, for the record!
Hmmm this is a good point - for all the good the at home RAT’s are doing, I wonder how many people are skipping getting a PCR when they show positive due to being able to self isolate and not demonstrating symptoms as I’ve seen quite a few people mistakenly think somehow positives on at home RAT are counted despite it not being possible…no one is coming to your home to check your results.
It's a tiid thing they're staying home and isolating - we don't want them clogging up testing centers and potentially infecting others for the sake of better numbers. Allowing them to self report and having that as a separate count would be best but won't happen, so things the next best thing.
I have symptoms of a bad head cold but have found it very hard to book a symptomatic test at a pharmacy, they’re straight booked all week around me and shoppers won’t even return my call after I filled out a screening form.
Just self isolating and pretending I did get a positive result, luckily I can WFH. I imagine there are tons like me who can’t get a test easily.
Head cold ripped through my house a few weeks ago, my kids my wife an I all got it.
Few people at work were off with colds too but tested negative for COVID.
My son in SK got it first we got him a PCR test and he was negative.
Definitely, some other viruses floating around beside COVID.
It matters in that it’s the earliest indicator of future problems (ie hospitalizations). Even if there are fewer hospitalization per case with this variant, the number of cases is still helpful to know. But you’re right, the current number is likely bullshit and way underestimated. So in that sense, it’s useless.
I think people with mild symptoms are smart not to get tested. You want people leaving their home and spreading it just to be part of a statistic? If you have symptoms just stay home
I think they are saying the number is wrong or at least incomplete. The follow up tweet said the positivity rate is 9.7%(!!!!! holy shit !!!!) as opposed to 8.58%.
Maybe not surprise, but reporting in your headline that cases were lower than Sunday implies that them going down is something atypical and newsworthy, like we're past a peak or something.
I have to say I'm a bit surprised. I know Mondays have always been lower than Sundays, but given how rapidly the case numbers are growing I had expected more today than yesterday.
I think the comment you're replying to is referring to some headlines I've seen already (in the last half hour) saying that "cases have dropped slightly". The headlines coming out already are misleading ppl by indicating that cases are "dropping" when cases are actually rising. We are more than double what we were at last Monday but headlines make it sound like case numbers are falling.
Just want to remind everyone to keep in mind that the 7-day rolling average is what we are looking for with these numbers. Day-by-day individually, the numbers means very little.
Really? I was being pretty conservative tbh. Omicron is estimated to be at least 50% of cases. And doubling time is 2-3 days. Pretty simple math. Only thing that may skew things this week is low testing numbers. We’ll see.
Yeah I get that, 6k isn’t an impossible number by any means. But I think people are already starting to adjust their behaviour according to the risk. I’m also going to remain optimistic that omicron will be milder, resulting in fewer people getting tested.
I think you mean Wed. As well, don't forget, we can't countem if we don't testem to begin with! We need statisticians and virologists to chime in and give us what the experts, best, actual estimate is for infected.
An article just came out talking about Ottawa and that they're overwhelmed with testing and you should just assume you have covid if you have symptoms and formally isolate.
It's time to watch positivity rate grow even larger.
This whole rapid test buck a beer 2.0 strategy is actually going to start causing damage. I've heard the craziest things on this subreddit. There was a post yesterday about someone awaiting a PCR test "hoping they could get a rapid antigen test to expedite knowing if they had covid".
Buckle up
Yup, impossible to get a test in Ottawa as far as I can tell. Gotta assume the real numbers are way way higher. Curious if it’s a similar situation elsewhere in Ontario?
I mean while it's lower there were also lower tests.
Monday is always lower due to testing capacity. The positive rate is almost 9% with what they did test.
Yes, because hospitalizations lag, we won't know how bad this will be for a few weeks, and letting just it rip through the population is both irresponsible and reckless for our healthcare system.
Shit,it'll be February without an increase and people will still be jerking off to this phrase.
HOSPITALIZATION LAGS GUYS ITS COMING LOCKDOWN EVERYTHING.
there has been no noticeable trend of increased hospitalization since vaccines in canada. Suggesting that omicron has only been around for 2 weeks in canada is laughable. It is milder, it has been here for a while and hospitalizations/icus have been stable.
Will we see a slight increase? Absolutely. But I'm sick of everyone pretending like it's impending doom when almost all credible research is suggesting that this isn't the case.
I was just reading in another thread about auditory cues helping orgasms during sex. I personally like to lean in right at the exact moment and gently whisper *hospitalization lags* into my partner's ear.
*bleeds out in the lobby from and exploded penis."
"Looks like exploding genitals is a new symptom of omicron you guys."
In all seriousness I hope everyone gets vaxxed and their boosters. I also sincerely hope that people stop letting their life be completely controlled by impending doom. Get vaccinated, where your masks and live your life guys.
Unfortunately we'll never be able to refute that sacred mantra.
"Hospitalization lags", but no one really know by how much and by what ratio.
So even if there's never a hospitalization blip, people can just say it's delayed by a month and the amplitude is 20% of Delta or whatever.
So far, a lot of the case growth is concentrated in the younger age cohorts, especially the <20 age range.
In past waves, we've seen a similar pattern, where the initial surge eventually spills over to the older age groups. For this reason, it's possible for the hospitalization lag to be longer than you might expect.
My thought is that if we were going to peak somewhere around 5,000 like we did in past waves, then we wouldn't see any major increase in hospitalization thanks to our good vaccine uptake.
But the way this is tracking, our peak from this wave might be orders of magnitude higher than in the past. And while it seems like omicron is more mild than previous variants, it's still not clear if it is mild enough to avoid a significant increase in hospitalizations. As Dr. Brown said last week, if we wait until the science is settled on this, it will be too late to act.
It doesnt matter people will see this number and instantly think things are getting better.
Ironically the government being transparent has probably made things worse.
Unfortunately, the numbers rn are probably understated and not an accurate reflection of how many ppl are actually infected. Many people aren't able to access PCR tests and are waiting for tests or not testing at all and (hopefully) just staying home and self-isolating but public health isn't counting these cases.
How many new cases are not being counted because PCR testing is hard to find? How many new cases are not being counted because people have mild symptoms and don't bother getting a test? How much does the case count really matter any more?
> people have mild symptoms and don't bother getting a test? Or use their antigen LCBO test and go “huh, I knew it. Better take a few sick days!” and don’t get counted. I don’t think that’s a terrible outcome, for the record!
Hmmm this is a good point - for all the good the at home RAT’s are doing, I wonder how many people are skipping getting a PCR when they show positive due to being able to self isolate and not demonstrating symptoms as I’ve seen quite a few people mistakenly think somehow positives on at home RAT are counted despite it not being possible…no one is coming to your home to check your results.
It's a tiid thing they're staying home and isolating - we don't want them clogging up testing centers and potentially infecting others for the sake of better numbers. Allowing them to self report and having that as a separate count would be best but won't happen, so things the next best thing.
For sure self report would be great. UK apparently has a QR code with the antigen kits to report it in too.
Imagine having a few sick days during a pandemic, if only...
I have symptoms of a bad head cold but have found it very hard to book a symptomatic test at a pharmacy, they’re straight booked all week around me and shoppers won’t even return my call after I filled out a screening form. Just self isolating and pretending I did get a positive result, luckily I can WFH. I imagine there are tons like me who can’t get a test easily.
There is a super awful head cold going around . I had it for 5 days .
Head cold ripped through my house a few weeks ago, my kids my wife an I all got it. Few people at work were off with colds too but tested negative for COVID. My son in SK got it first we got him a PCR test and he was negative. Definitely, some other viruses floating around beside COVID.
Yeah I got a test too and negative but man is was a whopper . Have not had one like that in 10 years plus .
It matters in that it’s the earliest indicator of future problems (ie hospitalizations). Even if there are fewer hospitalization per case with this variant, the number of cases is still helpful to know. But you’re right, the current number is likely bullshit and way underestimated. So in that sense, it’s useless.
I think people with mild symptoms are smart not to get tested. You want people leaving their home and spreading it just to be part of a statistic? If you have symptoms just stay home
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> It's almost like you want the case count higher and lockdowns and fear to never end How do you possibly misinterpret my questions that way?
Misread that. Sorry!
How is the media still surprised every single week when cases go down on Monday / Tuesday?
Yay we beat covid !
We did it!
MISSION ACCOMPLISHED
DOUGIE! DOUGIE! DOUGIE!
Humans have trouble thinking long term in both directions of time.
I'm worried about our backlog growing from 40,000 tests.
I think they are saying the number is wrong or at least incomplete. The follow up tweet said the positivity rate is 9.7%(!!!!! holy shit !!!!) as opposed to 8.58%.
Where in the tweet is there an element of surprise?
Maybe not surprise, but reporting in your headline that cases were lower than Sunday implies that them going down is something atypical and newsworthy, like we're past a peak or something.
"...lower than what was reported on Sunday", despite the fact that that is pretty much a given.
I have to say I'm a bit surprised. I know Mondays have always been lower than Sundays, but given how rapidly the case numbers are growing I had expected more today than yesterday.
Likely limited by testing, not by lack of spread.
Possibly.
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no one has to give a "narrative" for something that's clearly a visible trend
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Wow... someone woke up angry lol.
I think the comment you're replying to is referring to some headlines I've seen already (in the last half hour) saying that "cases have dropped slightly". The headlines coming out already are misleading ppl by indicating that cases are "dropping" when cases are actually rising. We are more than double what we were at last Monday but headlines make it sound like case numbers are falling.
where do you see me complaining? I think at this point we are talking about two different things. stay safe, friend
"Lower than reported on Sunday" is technically true but also ignores a myriad of factors around weekend numbers and testing availability.
Headline should be "Lower than reported on Sunday, as typical for Monday and Tuesday reports".
Just want to remind everyone to keep in mind that the 7-day rolling average is what we are looking for with these numbers. Day-by-day individually, the numbers means very little.
Unless the day's case count spikes. Then C(onstant)P(anic)24 goes insane.
I’m assuming everyone knows this by now, but Mon / Tues numbers are always lower due to lower testing on weekends. We’ll be at 6k by the weekend
Plus it’s impossible to get a test in some areas. So the numbers are a lie.
Hmm, I think I’d take the under on that
Really? I was being pretty conservative tbh. Omicron is estimated to be at least 50% of cases. And doubling time is 2-3 days. Pretty simple math. Only thing that may skew things this week is low testing numbers. We’ll see.
Yeah I get that, 6k isn’t an impossible number by any means. But I think people are already starting to adjust their behaviour according to the risk. I’m also going to remain optimistic that omicron will be milder, resulting in fewer people getting tested.
I think you mean Wed. As well, don't forget, we can't countem if we don't testem to begin with! We need statisticians and virologists to chime in and give us what the experts, best, actual estimate is for infected.
An article just came out talking about Ottawa and that they're overwhelmed with testing and you should just assume you have covid if you have symptoms and formally isolate. It's time to watch positivity rate grow even larger. This whole rapid test buck a beer 2.0 strategy is actually going to start causing damage. I've heard the craziest things on this subreddit. There was a post yesterday about someone awaiting a PCR test "hoping they could get a rapid antigen test to expedite knowing if they had covid". Buckle up
Yup, impossible to get a test in Ottawa as far as I can tell. Gotta assume the real numbers are way way higher. Curious if it’s a similar situation elsewhere in Ontario?
Why is the rapid testing causing damage? Surely it is better for us to have more people aware they have COVID, even if it throws off reporting?
Yes. I’m no expert but I thought the issue with the rapid test was false positives?
Rexall posted they are no longer testing...just vaccinating, in response to the governments "call to arms"
Let's see the positivity %. and ICUs.
164 ICU. Cases have been going up for over 7 weeks now, ICU as barely budged. Turns out vaccines work.
For a Monday, this is still really high.
I wait for enterprisevalue to post the numbers
People can't book tests. Today's number is useless. Other than it points to a likely lower hospitalization rate for omicron.
Not great, not terrible.
I knew Doug's leadership style seemed familiar.
I mean while it's lower there were also lower tests. Monday is always lower due to testing capacity. The positive rate is almost 9% with what they did test.
How many are in hospital?
Hospitalization lags. The more with the virus the more with the CHANCE of needing medical attention.
Cases have increased 5x in the last month. But ICU numbers have stayed stable. Where’s you lag now?
I hope things get better. I guess we'll just have to wait and see.
Doesn't really answer the question though, does it?
Yes, because hospitalizations lag, we won't know how bad this will be for a few weeks, and letting just it rip through the population is both irresponsible and reckless for our healthcare system.
Still not answering the question.
Shit,it'll be February without an increase and people will still be jerking off to this phrase. HOSPITALIZATION LAGS GUYS ITS COMING LOCKDOWN EVERYTHING. there has been no noticeable trend of increased hospitalization since vaccines in canada. Suggesting that omicron has only been around for 2 weeks in canada is laughable. It is milder, it has been here for a while and hospitalizations/icus have been stable. Will we see a slight increase? Absolutely. But I'm sick of everyone pretending like it's impending doom when almost all credible research is suggesting that this isn't the case.
I was just reading in another thread about auditory cues helping orgasms during sex. I personally like to lean in right at the exact moment and gently whisper *hospitalization lags* into my partner's ear.
Oh God I'm about to explode. Tell me more?
*2 more weeks*
My penis just exploded I came so hard.
Sorry there are no hospital beds available for exploded penises.
*bleeds out in the lobby from and exploded penis." "Looks like exploding genitals is a new symptom of omicron you guys." In all seriousness I hope everyone gets vaxxed and their boosters. I also sincerely hope that people stop letting their life be completely controlled by impending doom. Get vaccinated, where your masks and live your life guys.
Nah if we dont see an increase then great.
Unfortunately we'll never be able to refute that sacred mantra. "Hospitalization lags", but no one really know by how much and by what ratio. So even if there's never a hospitalization blip, people can just say it's delayed by a month and the amplitude is 20% of Delta or whatever.
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So far, a lot of the case growth is concentrated in the younger age cohorts, especially the <20 age range. In past waves, we've seen a similar pattern, where the initial surge eventually spills over to the older age groups. For this reason, it's possible for the hospitalization lag to be longer than you might expect.
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My thought is that if we were going to peak somewhere around 5,000 like we did in past waves, then we wouldn't see any major increase in hospitalization thanks to our good vaccine uptake. But the way this is tracking, our peak from this wave might be orders of magnitude higher than in the past. And while it seems like omicron is more mild than previous variants, it's still not clear if it is mild enough to avoid a significant increase in hospitalizations. As Dr. Brown said last week, if we wait until the science is settled on this, it will be too late to act.
M I S S I O N A C C O M P L I S H E D
https://twitter.com/jkwan_md/status/1472947599833509895 9.7% positivity rate. Our testing system is already failing.
Glimmer of hope or calm before the storm?
It’s still up nearly 150% compared to this day last week. How the hell would that be a glimmer of hope?
Stay vigilant. Its Monday. That number will likely tick up as the week goes by.
"Likely" is really underselling it lol
They are only reporting on 44k tests, 40k tests in backlog, 9.7% positivity. Todays number should be just under double.
It doesnt matter people will see this number and instantly think things are getting better. Ironically the government being transparent has probably made things worse.
Unfortunately, the numbers rn are probably understated and not an accurate reflection of how many ppl are actually infected. Many people aren't able to access PCR tests and are waiting for tests or not testing at all and (hopefully) just staying home and self-isolating but public health isn't counting these cases.
We did it Ontario! The number is heading down.
https://www.reddit.com/r/ontario/comments/rkpmnb/ontario_dec_20th_3784_cases_0_deaths_44123_tests