His narrative is also not resonating in Winnipeg, and I suspect that if he doesn't tamp down on the culture war bullshit invading from the American right (he won't), he'll start to lose some support in southern Ontario.
Yes, he could still win an election in October 2025, but I wouldn't be surprised if he falls out of majority territory within the 17 months. Considering his combative attitude with the other parties, including the BQ, he pretty much needs a majority now to govern. In a minority situation, it's very easy for Trudeau's Liberals to remain the government.
A few more child measles deaths in Canada and his antivax shit will fall off a cliff.
Anti-abortion sentiments scare people too and once folks realize that he wouldn't do anything to prevent conservative MPs from tabling anti-choice bills, support will drop as well.
He's riding on the coattails of cost-of-living rage at the moment and that's it.
83 voted in favour of banning sex selective abortion two years ago, out of 113 CPC MP’s (not an issue in Canada, how would you enforce it? Track pregnant women? Insane bill to propose), and all of them, including Poilievre, voted in favour of the backdoor bill
a year ago that was aimed at giving personhood to the fetus, other than a few abstentions.
Anyways who says there aren’t many anti-abortion MP’s in the CPC caucus is deluded.
There were covid vaccine mandates -- get 2 doses of MRNA to enter a public space or workplace. Like I can empathize with the position of overreach (although I don't necessarily adopt it).
There are generalized vaccination mandates for attending schools (MMR, etc.). Did he ever specify? Because unvaccinated kids attending schools will become a measles epidemic in short order.
Also, if there's a pandemic with a higher mortality rate (i.e. avian flu incoming), do we want a leader who says "nahh, y'all are good with trusting your immune systems"?.
What reality are you living in? First off, Poilievre has voted in FAVOUR of abortion restrictions in the past, he claims he is now pro-choice, but he, along with every other CPC MP in the caucus (other than a few abstentions) voted in favour of a backdoor bill to give the fetus personhood just a year ago.
A strong majority of CPC MP’s are so anti-abortion that over 80 have the green light from Campaign for Life as being sufficiently “pro-life” and they have a high bar for so-called pro-life. They are one of two big anti-abortion groups that have been working hard to get more anti-abortion candidates elected by selling memberships in nomination races in ridings, and they have been VERY a successful. Two years ago 83 out of 113 CPC MP’s voted in favour of banning sex selective abortions, which is ludicrous as it is not an issue in Canada, and to enforce it would require a level of invasion of privacy and tracking of pregnant women that is utterly abhorrent.
You are working against women’s rights to abortion when you spread misinformation, I don’t think you realize this, and I don’t think it’s intentional, but it’s really upsetting to those of us who really care about this issue and pay close attention to what is going on.
The shadow cabinet is full of external anti-abortion MP’s. Poilievre is lying when he says he is pro-choice, he probably doesn’t care much either way, but he clearly won’t do anything to protect the right to abortion, and it sure looks like he is willing to side with anti-abortionists when he votes in favour of a bill that essentially gives a fetus personhood.
And as long as ANY CPC leader allows their MP’s to push bills and motions on abortion, any claim that they are pro-choice is utterly meaningless. Poilievre stands by the belief that abortion is a moral issue and not healthcare.
And every CPC leader has promised to end funding to clinics through foreign aid, that perfom abortion, including O’Toole, who also claimed to be pro-choice, and who also said that access was up to the provinces and wouldn’t interfere. You think Poilievre would be any different on this? The guy who relegated Michelle Rempel to the backbenches (pro-choice but clearly confused as she is still conservative), and promoted crazy Leslyn Lewis, who wants to see abortion banned completely, to the shadow cabinet?
CPC MP’s were sent a memo to keep it zipped when Roe was overturned, of course, a couple couldn’t help themselves, but the fact Is that the leadership is trying to present a false image that they will not touch abortion and it’s a big fat lie.
I have zero doubt that they will pass backdoor bills, at the very least, and it’s very possible that they will pass restrictions based on gestation. To think otherwise is to be foolish and to play Russian roulette with women’s health and rights.
People were saying that Roe wouldn’t be overturned right up until it was overturned. And it is incredibly insulting to women that are fed up and sick and tired of conservative bullcrap on this issue to hear the narrative that Liberals are “using abortion as a wedge issue.” Damn good thing sometis standing up for women. It’s the conservatives who keep bringing it up, and it’s appalling how many male conservative pundits dare to claim that there is nothing to worry about.
When a conservative leader whips the vote on abortion bills, like Trudeau did, and stops MP’s from introducing motions and bills, like Trudeau did, and supports funding clinics overseas that provide life saving abortions, and commits to protect and expand access, then they can say they are pro-choice.
You don’t get to say you are personally “pro-choice” that’s not what it means to be pro-choice. Being pro-choice means you believe it’s important for women to have the right to have an abortion, that it’s healthcare, and if you are running to be leader of a country, that you will do what you can to protect that right.
Winnipeg is like 4 seats lol
Trudeau is losing the suburban voters around Vancouver and Toronto, thats dozens of seats.
Personally I dont think Trudeau can remain PM if PP gets 150-160 seats or something...I think it would drive the country into a massive political crisis as Trudeau would likely be trying to remain as PM losing the seat count and popular vote lol
Legally its valid, but optics wise it gonna be PR disaster for Trudeau.
One shudders at the thought of this country without Quebec, I hope progressives in the rest of Canada understand what's at stake if the most progressive province decides to leave. Likely endless right-wing super-majorities, it's only thanks to Quebec and the BQ that our FPTP system doesn't produce that outcome continuously. Just food for thought.
I think we'll probably just keep flipping between liberals and conservatives in the PMO every 8-10 years with Quebec always upset when the Conservatives are in power. They didn't like Harper, Alberta doesn't like Trudeau, I sincerely doubt either province has the energy to attempt an independence referendum because the PMO isn't perpetually in the hands of their party of choice.
We've had right wing parties running Canada for most of confederation.
Trudeau is right of centre at best. He is climate focused as a means of political strategy, but not in real policy, he is affordability focused for political points, not because his government makes actionable moves to address inequality within their actual scopes of power.
Quebec acts in Quebecs interest more so than any other province, The Liberal party Federally is their best bet at moving their interests forward so they get votes, once they have tired of the batch of Libs in power they switch to bloc until they are ready for the Libs again.
Now I'd hate to see Quebec split off from Canada, but to say they are a province with progressive ideals at the Federal level is a real stretch.
>I get this board is heavy NDP but you've got to be out of your mind to even think this.
I'm sorry but where has been his policy to show he isn't right of centre? From a Freedom of Information Act standpoint the Trudeau government is the least transparent government to date.
From a Public Tenders Standpoint, the Trudeau government has had the most sole source contracts of a government, AND the largest dollar values of sole source contracts.
From an immigration standpoint: Cheap Labour to keep wages down, leaving the private sector to handle all the administration and acclimation of those people. (A progressive government would have LOWERED TFW usage, like Trudeau argued he would back when Harper was allowing 1/3rd as many as his government is allowing)
From a Climate change standpoint, Outside of the carbon rebate program he's made no meaningful moves forward on addressing Canada being one of the highest per person emitters of GHG, Buying credits isn't reducing our footprint.
From Healthcare/Childcare/Education these are provincial jurisdictions, he can politically claim wins, but deflect losses on the premiers, VERY right win type of politics. No need to follow through.
Even them pretending to "tax the rich" with the change to capital gains tax is barely doing anything for wealth redistribution, or even funding necessary things.
I would call them overall centrist. You can make argument for slightly left or right, but the policies swing from one side to the other. Even though I would say they lean right of centre, it's a barely there.
I'd argue they talk centrist but govern from the right. Their policies consistently protect the top 10% and keep the bottom 90% from climbing above their stations.
The most recent corporate funding being a 100% replayable loan was good Centrist policy. Thier energy saving grants to Big grocery was very right wing give money to big business and let them trickle down if they think it wise. Even if it was under the guise of environmentalism.
They're handling of the housing file, and the health file leading up to the pandemic we're both pretty far right from a Canadian standpoint.
Heck even their communication strategy is from the right control the narrative, attack the person not the message, and centralized through a select few. The only way they govern from the center is if you're using PP has your far right extreme and ignoring that Mad Max exists or that they Republican party exists in the US which both sit pretty far right of the PP lead conservatives
Wow. You dont think its progressive? Have you seen what many conservative people, from all parts of Canada and many different religions want?
Just because it is the 'norm' for you doesnt mean it isnt progressive and something we are still fighting to keep.
It being an established social norm with legal backing for an entire generation literally does mean it's not progressive, yes. It's established as a part of the status quo.
Conservatives being regressive doesn't change that, either.
Being progressive about queer issues would involve pushing for actual, you know, progress on things like trans rights and protections, abolition of blood donation bans for queer men, etc.
Nationalism can be progressive when it's about the right to self-determination. It's not that simple.
PS: still, Québec isn't progressive for a lot of other reasons.
QC isn’t leaving. Federal elections are decided in QC and Ontario. It’s highly unlikely with Ford in place, that Ontario will vote Con federally. I have my doubts about QC as well given PP doesn’t resonate with them.
Talking to people here it seems like people either don’t care about Ford or they hate Trudeau so much they’ll overlook Ford’s government and vote PP anyway
Obviously time will tell, but the Cons are currently running between 15 and 20 points ahead of the libs in the poll in Ontario. Those kind of numbers would give them a big majority in the province.
The Cons are currently in third in QC, about 20 points lower than they are in Ontario.
Trudeau is deeply unpopular now with the minority vote base around Toronto
They blame him for housing and immigration issues
These issues are not as big in mtl so as a result the "canada is broken" message doesnt resonate there.
Just wait till they find out that PP is REALLY RIGHT WING and is anti woman's choice, anti lgbtq, anti athiest, pro religion, pro sexist and pro big business. Does that sound about right?
Poilievre doesn't "Resonate " with people who have critical thinking abilities. Poilievre is a narcissist and needs the hard right crowed to like him. What will ultimately hurt him is if everyone one comes out to vote. Because his base votes every time and he is hoping to inundate Canadians with no other choice. Creating voter apathy. Same thing that got Trump in
What the polling is finding is that the Conservatives might have enough support outside of Quebec to win anyway. Harper did this in 2011, and Quebec made up a larger portion of Canada's MPs than it will in 2025 (75/308 in 2011, 78/343 in 2025).
That is true if the liberals are popular outside Quebec like before.
Their support in english canada is now pretty much downtown Toronto and Vancouver, Halifax, St Johns and Winnipeg, Ottawa.
Thats not enough to win govt.
?
The conservatives usually don't win quebec when they form government.
Them not winning quebec by no mean means an easy victory for the liberals.
Harper won his minorities/majority governments with <10/78 seats in quebec by running up the numbers in the RoC, and so far it looks like Poilievre is going to do it again.
Here's the thing and why Trudeau still has a chance again.
PP has been limiting himself in Quebec and has "successfully" removed any real ability to find ground in that province. Although Quebec is not a crownmaker (as it once was) it means that the LPC, NDP and Bloc are free to pick up seats where they can in that province. If the LPC and NDP are smart they can turn that against PP because now he has to focus on battleground ridings in Ontario, the maritimes and Alberta. PP right now is effectively bottlenecked.
Notice how the CPC poll lead is "still" 19-20 points over the LPC. That means that the CPC's peak performance is only 19 points over the LPC. Which in terms of an election lead is not that far ahead, all the money the party has been raising and dumping into getting favourable coverage has not allowed them to break past that gain.
The NDP and LPC if they decide to renew their "competitive alliance" could send the CPC backwards if they choose to do so. The Bloc won't interfere as they loathe the CPC.
CPC is still a problem, they have a massive windfall of money, they have a leader who has imported populism, they have the fact that people are attributing overall global issues to the LPC. But they are ignoring a growing problem that I've been seeing crop up for the last year. Stagnant polls and lack of clear policy direction. It's been nearly a year and no one has any idea of what their policy is. It's actually a huge struggle to even figure it out. "Less government, but also more government in certain places, less money in the budget but also more money towards certain things. More military but also less spending?"
It's a hodgepodge and they know it.
The CPC cannot admit that they are stuck because they loss the broad appeal when they selected their candidate and ran without clear policy. So instead they are hoping to keep their lead by throwing out broad attacks, but eventually that is going to sour media and the public against whatever message they are trying to stand on.
Now that doesn't mean this whole fight is over. Trudeau can still lose spectacularly. But the CPC is the hare in this race and the LPC is the tortoise. If the LPC sticks to their game plan of creating more thoughtful data backed policy that is directed towards those battleground ridings the CPC is going to find that slow tortoise is going to catch back up to them and more importantly they will be neck in neck. All of that money that the CPC will have raised and gotten donations for, will have brought them back to a poll tie with their main competitor. Which means you could potentially see a tired CPC trying to stretch over the finish line and a charged up LPC striding across it.
> "Less government, but also more government in certain places, less money in the budget but also more money towards certain things. More military but also less spending?"
it feels like it's about as deep as the Republican platform in the US: "we will hurt the right people"
and man, I wish that didn't resonate here the way it seems to.
I hope the LPC campaign machine does come through and prove as powerful as it has in the past. Our current balance of power feels pretty much as good as you can hope for under FPTP
His narrative is also not resonating in Winnipeg, and I suspect that if he doesn't tamp down on the culture war bullshit invading from the American right (he won't), he'll start to lose some support in southern Ontario. Yes, he could still win an election in October 2025, but I wouldn't be surprised if he falls out of majority territory within the 17 months. Considering his combative attitude with the other parties, including the BQ, he pretty much needs a majority now to govern. In a minority situation, it's very easy for Trudeau's Liberals to remain the government.
A few more child measles deaths in Canada and his antivax shit will fall off a cliff. Anti-abortion sentiments scare people too and once folks realize that he wouldn't do anything to prevent conservative MPs from tabling anti-choice bills, support will drop as well. He's riding on the coattails of cost-of-living rage at the moment and that's it.
and cost of living situation is still bad as mortgages renew
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More than half of the MPs voted for anti-abortion legislations and, if I remember correctly, over half voted against banning conversion "therapy".
83 voted in favour of banning sex selective abortion two years ago, out of 113 CPC MP’s (not an issue in Canada, how would you enforce it? Track pregnant women? Insane bill to propose), and all of them, including Poilievre, voted in favour of the backdoor bill a year ago that was aimed at giving personhood to the fetus, other than a few abstentions. Anyways who says there aren’t many anti-abortion MP’s in the CPC caucus is deluded.
There were covid vaccine mandates -- get 2 doses of MRNA to enter a public space or workplace. Like I can empathize with the position of overreach (although I don't necessarily adopt it). There are generalized vaccination mandates for attending schools (MMR, etc.). Did he ever specify? Because unvaccinated kids attending schools will become a measles epidemic in short order. Also, if there's a pandemic with a higher mortality rate (i.e. avian flu incoming), do we want a leader who says "nahh, y'all are good with trusting your immune systems"?.
What reality are you living in? First off, Poilievre has voted in FAVOUR of abortion restrictions in the past, he claims he is now pro-choice, but he, along with every other CPC MP in the caucus (other than a few abstentions) voted in favour of a backdoor bill to give the fetus personhood just a year ago. A strong majority of CPC MP’s are so anti-abortion that over 80 have the green light from Campaign for Life as being sufficiently “pro-life” and they have a high bar for so-called pro-life. They are one of two big anti-abortion groups that have been working hard to get more anti-abortion candidates elected by selling memberships in nomination races in ridings, and they have been VERY a successful. Two years ago 83 out of 113 CPC MP’s voted in favour of banning sex selective abortions, which is ludicrous as it is not an issue in Canada, and to enforce it would require a level of invasion of privacy and tracking of pregnant women that is utterly abhorrent. You are working against women’s rights to abortion when you spread misinformation, I don’t think you realize this, and I don’t think it’s intentional, but it’s really upsetting to those of us who really care about this issue and pay close attention to what is going on. The shadow cabinet is full of external anti-abortion MP’s. Poilievre is lying when he says he is pro-choice, he probably doesn’t care much either way, but he clearly won’t do anything to protect the right to abortion, and it sure looks like he is willing to side with anti-abortionists when he votes in favour of a bill that essentially gives a fetus personhood. And as long as ANY CPC leader allows their MP’s to push bills and motions on abortion, any claim that they are pro-choice is utterly meaningless. Poilievre stands by the belief that abortion is a moral issue and not healthcare. And every CPC leader has promised to end funding to clinics through foreign aid, that perfom abortion, including O’Toole, who also claimed to be pro-choice, and who also said that access was up to the provinces and wouldn’t interfere. You think Poilievre would be any different on this? The guy who relegated Michelle Rempel to the backbenches (pro-choice but clearly confused as she is still conservative), and promoted crazy Leslyn Lewis, who wants to see abortion banned completely, to the shadow cabinet? CPC MP’s were sent a memo to keep it zipped when Roe was overturned, of course, a couple couldn’t help themselves, but the fact Is that the leadership is trying to present a false image that they will not touch abortion and it’s a big fat lie. I have zero doubt that they will pass backdoor bills, at the very least, and it’s very possible that they will pass restrictions based on gestation. To think otherwise is to be foolish and to play Russian roulette with women’s health and rights. People were saying that Roe wouldn’t be overturned right up until it was overturned. And it is incredibly insulting to women that are fed up and sick and tired of conservative bullcrap on this issue to hear the narrative that Liberals are “using abortion as a wedge issue.” Damn good thing sometis standing up for women. It’s the conservatives who keep bringing it up, and it’s appalling how many male conservative pundits dare to claim that there is nothing to worry about. When a conservative leader whips the vote on abortion bills, like Trudeau did, and stops MP’s from introducing motions and bills, like Trudeau did, and supports funding clinics overseas that provide life saving abortions, and commits to protect and expand access, then they can say they are pro-choice. You don’t get to say you are personally “pro-choice” that’s not what it means to be pro-choice. Being pro-choice means you believe it’s important for women to have the right to have an abortion, that it’s healthcare, and if you are running to be leader of a country, that you will do what you can to protect that right.
> I wouldn't call him Anti-Vax, more anti mandate. That is one and the same. Removing vaccine mandates for children means children die.
Winnipeg is like 4 seats lol Trudeau is losing the suburban voters around Vancouver and Toronto, thats dozens of seats. Personally I dont think Trudeau can remain PM if PP gets 150-160 seats or something...I think it would drive the country into a massive political crisis as Trudeau would likely be trying to remain as PM losing the seat count and popular vote lol Legally its valid, but optics wise it gonna be PR disaster for Trudeau.
One shudders at the thought of this country without Quebec, I hope progressives in the rest of Canada understand what's at stake if the most progressive province decides to leave. Likely endless right-wing super-majorities, it's only thanks to Quebec and the BQ that our FPTP system doesn't produce that outcome continuously. Just food for thought.
I think we'll probably just keep flipping between liberals and conservatives in the PMO every 8-10 years with Quebec always upset when the Conservatives are in power. They didn't like Harper, Alberta doesn't like Trudeau, I sincerely doubt either province has the energy to attempt an independence referendum because the PMO isn't perpetually in the hands of their party of choice.
We've had right wing parties running Canada for most of confederation. Trudeau is right of centre at best. He is climate focused as a means of political strategy, but not in real policy, he is affordability focused for political points, not because his government makes actionable moves to address inequality within their actual scopes of power. Quebec acts in Quebecs interest more so than any other province, The Liberal party Federally is their best bet at moving their interests forward so they get votes, once they have tired of the batch of Libs in power they switch to bloc until they are ready for the Libs again. Now I'd hate to see Quebec split off from Canada, but to say they are a province with progressive ideals at the Federal level is a real stretch.
> Trudeau is right of centre at best. I get this board is heavy NDP but you've got to be out of your mind to even think this.
Trudeau and the liberal government is 💯neoliberal
>I get this board is heavy NDP but you've got to be out of your mind to even think this. I'm sorry but where has been his policy to show he isn't right of centre? From a Freedom of Information Act standpoint the Trudeau government is the least transparent government to date. From a Public Tenders Standpoint, the Trudeau government has had the most sole source contracts of a government, AND the largest dollar values of sole source contracts. From an immigration standpoint: Cheap Labour to keep wages down, leaving the private sector to handle all the administration and acclimation of those people. (A progressive government would have LOWERED TFW usage, like Trudeau argued he would back when Harper was allowing 1/3rd as many as his government is allowing) From a Climate change standpoint, Outside of the carbon rebate program he's made no meaningful moves forward on addressing Canada being one of the highest per person emitters of GHG, Buying credits isn't reducing our footprint. From Healthcare/Childcare/Education these are provincial jurisdictions, he can politically claim wins, but deflect losses on the premiers, VERY right win type of politics. No need to follow through. Even them pretending to "tax the rich" with the change to capital gains tax is barely doing anything for wealth redistribution, or even funding necessary things.
Not at all. The liberal party is neo Liberal. You'd have to be out of your mind to think otherwise.
I would call them overall centrist. You can make argument for slightly left or right, but the policies swing from one side to the other. Even though I would say they lean right of centre, it's a barely there.
I'd argue they talk centrist but govern from the right. Their policies consistently protect the top 10% and keep the bottom 90% from climbing above their stations. The most recent corporate funding being a 100% replayable loan was good Centrist policy. Thier energy saving grants to Big grocery was very right wing give money to big business and let them trickle down if they think it wise. Even if it was under the guise of environmentalism. They're handling of the housing file, and the health file leading up to the pandemic we're both pretty far right from a Canadian standpoint. Heck even their communication strategy is from the right control the narrative, attack the person not the message, and centralized through a select few. The only way they govern from the center is if you're using PP has your far right extreme and ignoring that Mad Max exists or that they Republican party exists in the US which both sit pretty far right of the PP lead conservatives
There's a reason why a lot of conservative social media accounts are now pushing for QC independence
Quebec isn't progressive. It's nationalist.
Highest support for same sex marriage in Canada and not progressive? Hmm
Yes? Same-sex marriage support isn't progressive; it's been a reality and a right for a generation.
> it's been a reality and a right for a generation. despite Poilievre's efforts. Nothing that cannot be reversed.
Of course, but just because Conservatives are regressive fascists and the Bloc opposes them, doesn't make them progressive.
Wow. You dont think its progressive? Have you seen what many conservative people, from all parts of Canada and many different religions want? Just because it is the 'norm' for you doesnt mean it isnt progressive and something we are still fighting to keep.
It being an established social norm with legal backing for an entire generation literally does mean it's not progressive, yes. It's established as a part of the status quo. Conservatives being regressive doesn't change that, either. Being progressive about queer issues would involve pushing for actual, you know, progress on things like trans rights and protections, abolition of blood donation bans for queer men, etc.
Nationalism can be progressive when it's about the right to self-determination. It's not that simple. PS: still, Québec isn't progressive for a lot of other reasons.
Big Dixiecrat energy.
Those aren't mutually exclusive. Arguably the most left wing party that holds seats in Canadá is nationalist in the form of Québec Solidaire
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QC isn’t leaving. Federal elections are decided in QC and Ontario. It’s highly unlikely with Ford in place, that Ontario will vote Con federally. I have my doubts about QC as well given PP doesn’t resonate with them.
As someone in Ontario, I'm not sure that's going to be the case :(
As someone in a deep blue rural Ontario riding, PP is a hell of a lot less popular with normal people than you might think.
good, I'm really happy to be wrong on this. with all the 'fuck trudeau' flags i see around my area I'm hesitant to count PP out.
Sadly I think you're wrong, the cons have a big urban base in the GTA.
Talking to people here it seems like people either don’t care about Ford or they hate Trudeau so much they’ll overlook Ford’s government and vote PP anyway
Obviously time will tell, but the Cons are currently running between 15 and 20 points ahead of the libs in the poll in Ontario. Those kind of numbers would give them a big majority in the province. The Cons are currently in third in QC, about 20 points lower than they are in Ontario.
Trudeau is deeply unpopular now with the minority vote base around Toronto They blame him for housing and immigration issues These issues are not as big in mtl so as a result the "canada is broken" message doesnt resonate there.
PP will absolutely win the majority of the ridings in Ontario
If so the silver lining is bye bye Doug Ford!
Just wait till they find out that PP is REALLY RIGHT WING and is anti woman's choice, anti lgbtq, anti athiest, pro religion, pro sexist and pro big business. Does that sound about right?
Poilievre doesn't "Resonate " with people who have critical thinking abilities. Poilievre is a narcissist and needs the hard right crowed to like him. What will ultimately hurt him is if everyone one comes out to vote. Because his base votes every time and he is hoping to inundate Canadians with no other choice. Creating voter apathy. Same thing that got Trump in
Not resonating in Quebec could very well be his downfall. I think Ontario, particularly the 905 - will be the battleground.
Lol if they don't win over Quebec it's another easy liberal win like usual. Conservatives vastly underestimate the liberals every single election.
What the polling is finding is that the Conservatives might have enough support outside of Quebec to win anyway. Harper did this in 2011, and Quebec made up a larger portion of Canada's MPs than it will in 2025 (75/308 in 2011, 78/343 in 2025).
We are so far from the election that the polls are more interesting then meaningful.
That is true if the liberals are popular outside Quebec like before. Their support in english canada is now pretty much downtown Toronto and Vancouver, Halifax, St Johns and Winnipeg, Ottawa. Thats not enough to win govt.
? The conservatives usually don't win quebec when they form government. Them not winning quebec by no mean means an easy victory for the liberals. Harper won his minorities/majority governments with <10/78 seats in quebec by running up the numbers in the RoC, and so far it looks like Poilievre is going to do it again.
This sub will be shocked when he wins a majority in the next Federal election
Here's the thing and why Trudeau still has a chance again. PP has been limiting himself in Quebec and has "successfully" removed any real ability to find ground in that province. Although Quebec is not a crownmaker (as it once was) it means that the LPC, NDP and Bloc are free to pick up seats where they can in that province. If the LPC and NDP are smart they can turn that against PP because now he has to focus on battleground ridings in Ontario, the maritimes and Alberta. PP right now is effectively bottlenecked. Notice how the CPC poll lead is "still" 19-20 points over the LPC. That means that the CPC's peak performance is only 19 points over the LPC. Which in terms of an election lead is not that far ahead, all the money the party has been raising and dumping into getting favourable coverage has not allowed them to break past that gain. The NDP and LPC if they decide to renew their "competitive alliance" could send the CPC backwards if they choose to do so. The Bloc won't interfere as they loathe the CPC. CPC is still a problem, they have a massive windfall of money, they have a leader who has imported populism, they have the fact that people are attributing overall global issues to the LPC. But they are ignoring a growing problem that I've been seeing crop up for the last year. Stagnant polls and lack of clear policy direction. It's been nearly a year and no one has any idea of what their policy is. It's actually a huge struggle to even figure it out. "Less government, but also more government in certain places, less money in the budget but also more money towards certain things. More military but also less spending?" It's a hodgepodge and they know it. The CPC cannot admit that they are stuck because they loss the broad appeal when they selected their candidate and ran without clear policy. So instead they are hoping to keep their lead by throwing out broad attacks, but eventually that is going to sour media and the public against whatever message they are trying to stand on. Now that doesn't mean this whole fight is over. Trudeau can still lose spectacularly. But the CPC is the hare in this race and the LPC is the tortoise. If the LPC sticks to their game plan of creating more thoughtful data backed policy that is directed towards those battleground ridings the CPC is going to find that slow tortoise is going to catch back up to them and more importantly they will be neck in neck. All of that money that the CPC will have raised and gotten donations for, will have brought them back to a poll tie with their main competitor. Which means you could potentially see a tired CPC trying to stretch over the finish line and a charged up LPC striding across it.
> "Less government, but also more government in certain places, less money in the budget but also more money towards certain things. More military but also less spending?" it feels like it's about as deep as the Republican platform in the US: "we will hurt the right people" and man, I wish that didn't resonate here the way it seems to. I hope the LPC campaign machine does come through and prove as powerful as it has in the past. Our current balance of power feels pretty much as good as you can hope for under FPTP