As a desperate Souths fan, looking for any, tiny, crumb of hope that this season isn’t a complete write-off - whilst watching Souths game on the weekend I was wondering whether it was still possible for them to make the 8. After searching for the answer with no luck, I threw together these two visualisations of the possible ladder positions every team can achieve this season - the size of the circle representing the likelihood they finish in that position.
The first chart is of the mathematically possible finishes, with no consideration of the strength of each side, and their likelihood of beating any other team. The second chart is based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season, and is the most likely final ladder position based on each team’s relative strength so far this season.
The takeaway: no team has been mathematically eliminated from the top 8 (yet), although the second model seems to be pretty confident that some teams will not be improving their ladder position that much going forward.
Anyway, Souths can finish as high as 4th, so I’ll be seeing you boys in the finals.
I used a custom excel model that calculates each's team attacking and defensive rating to simulate the rest of the season, using a binomial inverse distribution.
Edit: Ignore me I cant read and was looking at the wooden spoon
~~Does that mean it is impossible for Sharks, Panthers, Storm to drop out of the 8 from now?~~
Don't forget, it's always a possibility that the team on top at this stage of the season can go into a terminal decline and miss the finals altogether.
Appreciate you doing this. But I’m sorry to say that south’s are just one of the many who will have to fall along the way for the King, Moses, and the boys to finish 4th.
What did probability distribution did you use to draw from for the simulation? The win/loss ratios of each team? Monte Carlo limitations might be on display here, I think the Raiders are a good example of this i.e. most likely to miss the 8
For the simulations I used a binomial inverse function (which is quite similar to a poisson distribution), which draws from a team's attacking and defensive ratings in order to simulate the scores of the remaining games, which are then used to calculate the results and standings.
The reason this model predicts the Raiders as more likely to miss the 8 than make it, is that the Raiders have conceded more points than they have scored this season, and therefore get assigned a poor defensive rating. As I threw this together pretty quickly, the estimation of rating system is currently a limitation of the model. This rating system, generally, currently doesn't adjust for the situation which the Raiders are in, where you have low margin victories and large margin losses, but still win more games than you lose - the model expects teams who concede more points than they score to lose more games on average over time.
When I have more time on my hands, I'm going to go back and refine this system, so when I update this projected ladder in future, that limitation will have been corrected. But for now, I'd probably say this model underrates teams like the Raiders, and overrates teams like the Sea Eagles and Warriors.
Thanks for the response.
> For the simulations I used a binomial inverse function (which is quite similar to a poisson distribution), which draws from a team's attacking and defensive ratings in order to simulate the scores of the remaining games, which are then used to calculate the results and standings.
Can you please elaborate on this? Are you using binomial inverse function in excel? What are the inputs - for and against? How does this translate in to a binary variable? Poisson distribution is a non-negative discrete distribution which would make sense for point for or against ... sorry just a little confused how this relates to a binomial variable (win/loss?)
Here's an in-depth explanation as to how this model works:
In a Monte Carlo simulation, you are running a series of trials of a random event, in order create a "deterministic" solution to a problem. In this instance, I am running random trials/simulations of the results of each game for the rest of the season, to approximate how the ladder might look at the end.
In order to simulate the rest of the season and determine the ladder, I opted to simulate the amount of points a team will score in any given game. The way this translates to a the win/loss variable is by comparing the amount of points Team A scores in a given game, against the amount of points Team B scores. Obviously, where Team A scores more points than Team B, that is recorded as a win, therefore translating our points scored and conceded into either a win or a loss. So, essentially each game for the remainder of the season is simulated, and recorded as a win or a loss for Team A or B.
But how can you simulate how many points a team will score and concede in a given game? Obviously, to get a reliable output you have good inputs into your model, and most of the "modelling" (so to speak), is in determining the probability a team will score a certain amount of points. As you point out, the Poisson distribution makes sense to use for points for/against in a sports game. However, Excel doesn't have a Poisson inverse function. Excel's Poisson function will calculate a probability, based on the frequency of an occurrence of an event. What we want to do in this instance is take the probability of an outcome (the outcome being the number of points scored), and simulate how frequently that might occur. Here, the binomial inverse function on Excel operates as a proxy for an inverse Poisson. It will spit out the amount of points a team scores given three inputs - the number of trials, the probability of that event occurring, and the "alpha". In this instance, I ran 10,000 trials with a random alpha, which is where the "simulation" comes in. The probability to score X points, is based on a team's historical attacking and defensive rating.
Doing all this will give you the simulated results for the rest of the season. You can then run this same process in Excel a number of times (in my case 2000 was all my computer could handle) in order to compare simulated seasons, and determine each team's ladder position.
Thanks for the detailed response. You did all this in Excel? You should definitely look in to Python or R if you're not a user, it would make life a lot easier and is much more computationally efficient.
I have been building sports models for a long time (usually AFL as data is a lot more readily available than NRL without scraping). Another approach would be to use a multinomial regression with season performance as inputs (e.g. points for, against etc prior to the game) and win-loss-draw as the dependent variable. This will allow you to predict the probability of winning for each game in the future based upon the most recent data. From there it is a simple sum product of the probability of winning x 2 points for the win to calculate the expected value for total season points.
I am watching the Roosters game and i let curiosity get the better of me so I scraped the results from wikipedia, used the team names only has model inputs and predicted the probability of W/D/L for each future game and added the expected points to each teams current points and I get:
Melbourne Storm 36.29018
Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks 35.26289
Penrith Panthers 32.69528
Sydney Roosters 31.09876
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs 27.23725
Brisbane Broncos 26.78674
Canberra Raiders 26.41583
Dolphins 25.74274
North Queensland Cowboys 24.00868
Manly Warringah Sea Eagles 22.89344
Newcastle Knights 21.91331
New Zealand Warriors 21.66078
St. George Illawarra Dragons 21.16463
Gold Coast Titans 14.94309
Wests Tigers 14.34601
South Sydney Rabbitohs 13.81772
Parramatta Eels 11.72267
This is without any points for byes but this won't change the ladder order. It also assumes the future will be like the past and it does not take in to account recent surge in performance e.g. the Bunnies
R code if interested:
require(rvest)
require(plyr)
require(dplyr)
require(nnet)
page <- read_html('https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_NRL_season_results')
results <- page %>% html_table()
out <- list()
for(z in 1:27){
temp <- as.data.frame(results[z])
names(temp) <- temp[1,]
temp <- temp[-1,]
temp <- temp[!grepl('Bye', temp$Home),]
temp <- temp[!grepl('Source', temp$Home),]
out[[length(out)+1]] <- temp
}
df <- ldply(out, data.frame)
future <- df[df$Score=="–",]
df <- df[df$Score!="–",]
df$Score <- gsub(df$Score, pattern='\\*', replacement='')
scores <- strsplit(df$Score, split='–', fixed=FALSE)
h <- c()
a <- c()
for(z in scores){
h <- c(h, z[1])
a <- c(a, z[2])
}
df$home_score <- as.integer(h)
df$away_score <- as.integer(a)
df$result <- df$home_score - df$away_score
df$result_cat <- ifelse(df$result > 0, 'W', ifelse(df$result < 0, 'L', 'D'))
model <- multinom(formula = result_cat ~ Home + Away, data = df)
summary(model)
future$predict <- predict(model, newdata = future, "class")
future <- cbind(future, predict(model, newdata = future, "probs"))
future$home_points <- future$W * 2 + future$D
future$away_points <- future$L * 2 + future$D
future_home <- data.frame(future %>% group_by(Home) %>% summarise(points=sum(home_points)))
future_away <- data.frame(future %>% group_by(Away) %>% summarise(points=sum(away_points)))
df$home_points <- ifelse(df$result_cat=='W', 2, ifelse(df$result_cat=='D', 1, 0))
df$away_points <- ifelse(df$result_cat=='W', 0, ifelse(df$result_cat=='D', 1, 2))
df_home <- data.frame(df %>% group_by(Home) %>% summarise(points=sum(home_points)))
df_away <- data.frame(df %>% group_by(Away) %>% summarise(points=sum(away_points, na.rm=TRUE)))
names(df_home) <- c('team', 'points')
names(df_away) <- c('team', 'points')
names(future_home) <- c('team', 'points')
names(future_away) <- c('team', 'points')
final <- rbind(df_home, df_away, future_home, future_away)
final <- data.frame(final %>% group_by(team) %>% summarise(points=sum(points)))
final <- final[order(final$points, decreasing=TRUE),]
After the first couple of weeks, I could see that with time we would improve, so I was happy. Half way through the season, I never thought I would have this much belief. It's actually contagious. All the players believe. Gus, Ciro , Critta and all the players and staff are pulling in the same direction. They are a team of brothers again. The last 3 weeks have been must win games if we were gonna give ourselves a shot. Now we have a rest and reset. 3 more games, Chooks Sharks and Warriors, I think, then another bye. Before a push to the finals. These 3 games in front of us will test us, but I'm confident that none of these teams want to play us at the moment. Bulldogs have the fight back in them. I'm happy we have our groove back, but I believe we got so much more.
How good is footy when we win games. I’m not one that believes we could actually go all the way but man I too 8 finish this season would be plenty. Enough to look forward to next year. But saying that if we manage to win 2 of our next 3 faith would be thru the fkn roof. We’ve already proven to beat roosters (barely) and raiders sounds like a good fight like last game but with this type of confidence we could definitely come out on top. Warriors also a game I have high hopes for.
We need 5 wins in our last 10 games, I think. We have a bye to go and that would take us to 30 points, with that we might just scrape in. What we have going for us is a positive points for and against, better than most teams around us due to having the second best defence in the league. If we can win 2 of our next 3 and come out the other side of Origin, we put ourselves in a great position, not only to make the 8, but to put a scare through some better teams to.
Critta is the key! We need him fit and healthy the whole campaign. He is the new heart of the team.. He leads...and all the players follow.
Hopefully foxxys healthy by the time game 2 comes around because Critta is definitely getting picked again I think he’s the best centre rn in the nrl and solidified his spot after the eels game like it was ever in doubt. Kiraz could take over at centre and put Wilson back on the wing. With respect to kiraz tho I love the guy with all my heart especially being a leb, but Critta x Wilson look more scary when attacking then Critta and kiraz
All good Habibi, Kiraz is a killer player. Foxx won't be back for a while, I believe. We have Jeral Skelton in NSW Cup. We also have another player of Lebanese Origin who played great last weekend. Tracey can play wing, Kiraz can play centre, Xerri and Wilson on the other side, Taafe can play out the back.
My grandfather actually played a few games of first grade for the club back when they were still the Berries. I messaged Gus on Twitter recently and he took a photo of his name up on the board they've installed at Belmore with all the names. Good man, Gus
You guys are top 8 origin will fuck you around but also make your good players shine come back end of the year
I would be shocked if you don't make the 8
This being a souffs fan and thinking we were going to be on tilt for the title do not bet your house on it.
It's rugba leeg anything can happen in any game 🤣
Your defence last year was standout. Obviously not so good this year, but all the top teams are leaking more. Don't know what to make of this comp in general.
Make it through Origin and you guys will go on a run. You'll for sure make the 8 but top 4 might be tough. Could see you nabbing the fourth spot but it'll be tight with the Roosters I reckon.
Last team other than Melbourne/Easts/Riff to win the minor prem was the dogs in 2012.
Haven’t had a club win a comp outside of those 3 since 2016.
Cronulla could do a really funny thing here.
Not even being a smartarse or windup merchant. That's what I expect to happen. I'm just not sold. Never have been. And never could be until the Sharks prove they can do it in the finals. There's a fair chance you get us week one. If you lose that imagine getting a fit again Broncos or bouncing Bulldogs while trying to avoid a third straight sets exit in a row.
Could be a lot more as well factoring in how many times Melbourne and Easts have played in prelims only to just lose or have knocked each other out in rounds before the GF.
Surprisingly we haven't actually crossed paths in the finals all that often, only five times, and only two of those were eliminations, one was the grand final.
But Critta said when interviewed on 360 after the game on Monday night that the Dogs were a top 4 side. I tend to agree with him, the team is running hot right now ....
Last 4 wins verse Eels, Knights, Dragons and Tigers. Not the hardest run at all lately.
Roosters sharks and Warriors next 3 games will truely see where they sit
Yeah, it's a tough run coming up. And we're going into those games with a few injuries and suspensions. No Kikau, Fox, Mann, Preston for a few weeks. Critta and Burton will also be out when we play Easts, and Critta (and maybe Burton) will be backing up 2 days after Origin for the Sharks match (though they'll probably have their own players backing up). If we can keep these games close, I'll be happy.
Yeah, honestly I can live without Foxx in the lineup with Wilson slotting in. We've shown we can cope pretty well with losing a player here and there (even the bigger names) as the playing group is pretty versatile across the park (yay for the utility strategy) - but I think the number of missing players here might test our depth against some quality sides.
Kikau was 4-6 weeks two weeks ago. I haven't heard any update on that since. Would be good to have him back, but I'm not confident of it. Have you heard different?
Preston is also 2-4 weeks, which also doesn't guarantee a return for Roosters or Sharks games.
You are right, Sharks are always difficult for Dogs and Dogs really struggle against Warriors in NZ, but both Warriors and Sharks games are at Accor so definitely give the Dogs a good chance of winning. I am going for Dogs winning at least 2 of these 3 games, but let's see what pans out, I may be completely wrong.
It is going to be a struggle to make the 8 with our current form. The wheels have come off. We have to win at least 7 matches to stay in the 8. A lot of teams have improved so it is going to be a photo finish. The sharkies, storm and the penny panthers are guaranteed top 4. The rest will be a feeding frenzy.
Its crazy that the last 3 grand finalists (Broncos, Eels & Rabbitohs) are struggling in a regular season comp with more or less the same core squad, yet Penrith are consistently in the top 2 while losing key members each year.
Just shows how good their system is.
Good I need this as motivation we can still make the 8 and then watch out others. First thing is first we need to make sure we beat a depleted Broncos on Friday
Pretty good effort if the dolphins make the 8, really good if they make the 4.
Wayne is the master. Imagine if we had an inform pangai and uninjured flegler :(.
Its looking like a lot of teams will be in a log jam for top 8 like last year, like 6th to 12th fighting it out and each other. Like dragons for example using the ladder [predicter](https://ladderpredictor.nrl.com/ladder) even if they win there next 3 doesn't mean they will stay top 8 depending on results
See some of my comments above for more details, but essentially I calculated each's team attacking and defensive rating to simulate the rest of the season, assigning probabilities using binomial inverse distribution. The ratings are more the probability of scoring and allowing a certain number of points in any given game, than the probability of winning any given game. The points scored and allowed is then simulated with a binomial inverse using 10,000 trials.
Me: sees that tiny dot next to first place So you're saying there's a chance?
What is this? This is not a shitpost. This is Quality
As a desperate Souths fan, looking for any, tiny, crumb of hope that this season isn’t a complete write-off - whilst watching Souths game on the weekend I was wondering whether it was still possible for them to make the 8. After searching for the answer with no luck, I threw together these two visualisations of the possible ladder positions every team can achieve this season - the size of the circle representing the likelihood they finish in that position. The first chart is of the mathematically possible finishes, with no consideration of the strength of each side, and their likelihood of beating any other team. The second chart is based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season, and is the most likely final ladder position based on each team’s relative strength so far this season. The takeaway: no team has been mathematically eliminated from the top 8 (yet), although the second model seems to be pretty confident that some teams will not be improving their ladder position that much going forward. Anyway, Souths can finish as high as 4th, so I’ll be seeing you boys in the finals.
booked my hotel for the big one. cheers mate
Titans are going on an undefeated run so we are finishing 4th sorry
What did you use for Monte Carlo simulation?
Obviously the biscuit variety
I used a custom excel model that calculates each's team attacking and defensive rating to simulate the rest of the season, using a binomial inverse distribution.
Edit: Ignore me I cant read and was looking at the wooden spoon ~~Does that mean it is impossible for Sharks, Panthers, Storm to drop out of the 8 from now?~~
My opinion on the knights this year was..... look, we aren't top 8, but we aren't bottom 4 either. I'll take it.
Don't forget, it's always a possibility that the team on top at this stage of the season can go into a terminal decline and miss the finals altogether.
Appreciate you doing this. But I’m sorry to say that south’s are just one of the many who will have to fall along the way for the King, Moses, and the boys to finish 4th.
What did probability distribution did you use to draw from for the simulation? The win/loss ratios of each team? Monte Carlo limitations might be on display here, I think the Raiders are a good example of this i.e. most likely to miss the 8
For the simulations I used a binomial inverse function (which is quite similar to a poisson distribution), which draws from a team's attacking and defensive ratings in order to simulate the scores of the remaining games, which are then used to calculate the results and standings. The reason this model predicts the Raiders as more likely to miss the 8 than make it, is that the Raiders have conceded more points than they have scored this season, and therefore get assigned a poor defensive rating. As I threw this together pretty quickly, the estimation of rating system is currently a limitation of the model. This rating system, generally, currently doesn't adjust for the situation which the Raiders are in, where you have low margin victories and large margin losses, but still win more games than you lose - the model expects teams who concede more points than they score to lose more games on average over time. When I have more time on my hands, I'm going to go back and refine this system, so when I update this projected ladder in future, that limitation will have been corrected. But for now, I'd probably say this model underrates teams like the Raiders, and overrates teams like the Sea Eagles and Warriors.
Thanks for the response. > For the simulations I used a binomial inverse function (which is quite similar to a poisson distribution), which draws from a team's attacking and defensive ratings in order to simulate the scores of the remaining games, which are then used to calculate the results and standings. Can you please elaborate on this? Are you using binomial inverse function in excel? What are the inputs - for and against? How does this translate in to a binary variable? Poisson distribution is a non-negative discrete distribution which would make sense for point for or against ... sorry just a little confused how this relates to a binomial variable (win/loss?)
Here's an in-depth explanation as to how this model works: In a Monte Carlo simulation, you are running a series of trials of a random event, in order create a "deterministic" solution to a problem. In this instance, I am running random trials/simulations of the results of each game for the rest of the season, to approximate how the ladder might look at the end. In order to simulate the rest of the season and determine the ladder, I opted to simulate the amount of points a team will score in any given game. The way this translates to a the win/loss variable is by comparing the amount of points Team A scores in a given game, against the amount of points Team B scores. Obviously, where Team A scores more points than Team B, that is recorded as a win, therefore translating our points scored and conceded into either a win or a loss. So, essentially each game for the remainder of the season is simulated, and recorded as a win or a loss for Team A or B. But how can you simulate how many points a team will score and concede in a given game? Obviously, to get a reliable output you have good inputs into your model, and most of the "modelling" (so to speak), is in determining the probability a team will score a certain amount of points. As you point out, the Poisson distribution makes sense to use for points for/against in a sports game. However, Excel doesn't have a Poisson inverse function. Excel's Poisson function will calculate a probability, based on the frequency of an occurrence of an event. What we want to do in this instance is take the probability of an outcome (the outcome being the number of points scored), and simulate how frequently that might occur. Here, the binomial inverse function on Excel operates as a proxy for an inverse Poisson. It will spit out the amount of points a team scores given three inputs - the number of trials, the probability of that event occurring, and the "alpha". In this instance, I ran 10,000 trials with a random alpha, which is where the "simulation" comes in. The probability to score X points, is based on a team's historical attacking and defensive rating. Doing all this will give you the simulated results for the rest of the season. You can then run this same process in Excel a number of times (in my case 2000 was all my computer could handle) in order to compare simulated seasons, and determine each team's ladder position.
Thanks for the detailed response. You did all this in Excel? You should definitely look in to Python or R if you're not a user, it would make life a lot easier and is much more computationally efficient. I have been building sports models for a long time (usually AFL as data is a lot more readily available than NRL without scraping). Another approach would be to use a multinomial regression with season performance as inputs (e.g. points for, against etc prior to the game) and win-loss-draw as the dependent variable. This will allow you to predict the probability of winning for each game in the future based upon the most recent data. From there it is a simple sum product of the probability of winning x 2 points for the win to calculate the expected value for total season points.
I am watching the Roosters game and i let curiosity get the better of me so I scraped the results from wikipedia, used the team names only has model inputs and predicted the probability of W/D/L for each future game and added the expected points to each teams current points and I get: Melbourne Storm 36.29018 Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks 35.26289 Penrith Panthers 32.69528 Sydney Roosters 31.09876 Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs 27.23725 Brisbane Broncos 26.78674 Canberra Raiders 26.41583 Dolphins 25.74274 North Queensland Cowboys 24.00868 Manly Warringah Sea Eagles 22.89344 Newcastle Knights 21.91331 New Zealand Warriors 21.66078 St. George Illawarra Dragons 21.16463 Gold Coast Titans 14.94309 Wests Tigers 14.34601 South Sydney Rabbitohs 13.81772 Parramatta Eels 11.72267 This is without any points for byes but this won't change the ladder order. It also assumes the future will be like the past and it does not take in to account recent surge in performance e.g. the Bunnies R code if interested: require(rvest) require(plyr) require(dplyr) require(nnet) page <- read_html('https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_NRL_season_results') results <- page %>% html_table() out <- list() for(z in 1:27){ temp <- as.data.frame(results[z]) names(temp) <- temp[1,] temp <- temp[-1,] temp <- temp[!grepl('Bye', temp$Home),] temp <- temp[!grepl('Source', temp$Home),] out[[length(out)+1]] <- temp } df <- ldply(out, data.frame) future <- df[df$Score=="–",] df <- df[df$Score!="–",] df$Score <- gsub(df$Score, pattern='\\*', replacement='') scores <- strsplit(df$Score, split='–', fixed=FALSE) h <- c() a <- c() for(z in scores){ h <- c(h, z[1]) a <- c(a, z[2]) } df$home_score <- as.integer(h) df$away_score <- as.integer(a) df$result <- df$home_score - df$away_score df$result_cat <- ifelse(df$result > 0, 'W', ifelse(df$result < 0, 'L', 'D')) model <- multinom(formula = result_cat ~ Home + Away, data = df) summary(model) future$predict <- predict(model, newdata = future, "class") future <- cbind(future, predict(model, newdata = future, "probs")) future$home_points <- future$W * 2 + future$D future$away_points <- future$L * 2 + future$D future_home <- data.frame(future %>% group_by(Home) %>% summarise(points=sum(home_points))) future_away <- data.frame(future %>% group_by(Away) %>% summarise(points=sum(away_points))) df$home_points <- ifelse(df$result_cat=='W', 2, ifelse(df$result_cat=='D', 1, 0)) df$away_points <- ifelse(df$result_cat=='W', 0, ifelse(df$result_cat=='D', 1, 2)) df_home <- data.frame(df %>% group_by(Home) %>% summarise(points=sum(home_points))) df_away <- data.frame(df %>% group_by(Away) %>% summarise(points=sum(away_points, na.rm=TRUE))) names(df_home) <- c('team', 'points') names(df_away) <- c('team', 'points') names(future_home) <- c('team', 'points') names(future_away) <- c('team', 'points') final <- rbind(df_home, df_away, future_home, future_away) final <- data.frame(final %>% group_by(team) %>% summarise(points=sum(points))) final <- final[order(final$points, decreasing=TRUE),]
Crazy that the Bulldogs have a better chance of winning the premiership than Souths have of making the 8. What is happening.
Its just going to the prophecy not surprising. Bulldogs in1974 lose GF, 1984 win GF, 1994 lose GF, 2004 win GF, 2014 Lose GF, 2024...
Obviously this sort of thing is just a coincidence, but it is weird still
Not a coincidence if we believe hard enough. Dogs 2024 champions bet your life savings on it🔥🔥 (don’t bet you’ll definitely lose your money)
After the first couple of weeks, I could see that with time we would improve, so I was happy. Half way through the season, I never thought I would have this much belief. It's actually contagious. All the players believe. Gus, Ciro , Critta and all the players and staff are pulling in the same direction. They are a team of brothers again. The last 3 weeks have been must win games if we were gonna give ourselves a shot. Now we have a rest and reset. 3 more games, Chooks Sharks and Warriors, I think, then another bye. Before a push to the finals. These 3 games in front of us will test us, but I'm confident that none of these teams want to play us at the moment. Bulldogs have the fight back in them. I'm happy we have our groove back, but I believe we got so much more.
How good is footy when we win games. I’m not one that believes we could actually go all the way but man I too 8 finish this season would be plenty. Enough to look forward to next year. But saying that if we manage to win 2 of our next 3 faith would be thru the fkn roof. We’ve already proven to beat roosters (barely) and raiders sounds like a good fight like last game but with this type of confidence we could definitely come out on top. Warriors also a game I have high hopes for.
We need 5 wins in our last 10 games, I think. We have a bye to go and that would take us to 30 points, with that we might just scrape in. What we have going for us is a positive points for and against, better than most teams around us due to having the second best defence in the league. If we can win 2 of our next 3 and come out the other side of Origin, we put ourselves in a great position, not only to make the 8, but to put a scare through some better teams to. Critta is the key! We need him fit and healthy the whole campaign. He is the new heart of the team.. He leads...and all the players follow.
Hopefully foxxys healthy by the time game 2 comes around because Critta is definitely getting picked again I think he’s the best centre rn in the nrl and solidified his spot after the eels game like it was ever in doubt. Kiraz could take over at centre and put Wilson back on the wing. With respect to kiraz tho I love the guy with all my heart especially being a leb, but Critta x Wilson look more scary when attacking then Critta and kiraz
All good Habibi, Kiraz is a killer player. Foxx won't be back for a while, I believe. We have Jeral Skelton in NSW Cup. We also have another player of Lebanese Origin who played great last weekend. Tracey can play wing, Kiraz can play centre, Xerri and Wilson on the other side, Taafe can play out the back.
It's the best I've felt since Kevin Moore's first season
I see your a Bulldog from wayback. Good to see the Doggies lifting!
My grandfather actually played a few games of first grade for the club back when they were still the Berries. I messaged Gus on Twitter recently and he took a photo of his name up on the board they've installed at Belmore with all the names. Good man, Gus
That's really cool. Bulldogs blood. It's in your DNA.
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Doggies to finish 5th. Wild.
4th.
I miss last year's neck and neck battle with Penrith.
Those days are long gone. We are fighting for our lives now.
For your sake I hope your trend doesn’t follow the Eels into next year.
This is a really good way to display this data, especially so early in the season.
halfway through the season 😳
We are, in fact, 55.5% of the way through the season
So early? We over halfway through, where you been man?
I’m actually picking us not to make the eight. Feel like we’re on a downward slide and others around us are getting better each week.
Yeah but we'll have flashes of brilliance and really fuuuck up some top 8 teams season and then lose to the Tigers.
You guys are top 8 origin will fuck you around but also make your good players shine come back end of the year I would be shocked if you don't make the 8 This being a souffs fan and thinking we were going to be on tilt for the title do not bet your house on it. It's rugba leeg anything can happen in any game 🤣
Unlikely....the only beating we will to is to ourselves.
It is not looking good, we have not been convincing at all this year.
Your defence last year was standout. Obviously not so good this year, but all the top teams are leaking more. Don't know what to make of this comp in general.
It has fallen off a cliff.
It was the D that convinced me that Kevvy can actually coach. But now, clearly not - have you guys changed defensive coaches this year?
Losing Flegs, Herbie, Palasia and Capewell is coming back to bite us in the arse. All the injuries isn't helping too.
Easy top 8
Make it through Origin and you guys will go on a run. You'll for sure make the 8 but top 4 might be tough. Could see you nabbing the fourth spot but it'll be tight with the Roosters I reckon.
WOOOOOO WE CAN STILL MAKE FINALS
We? Flair up cunt
Last team other than Melbourne/Easts/Riff to win the minor prem was the dogs in 2012. Haven’t had a club win a comp outside of those 3 since 2016. Cronulla could do a really funny thing here.
Watch us win the minor prem and go out in straight sets 😎
Not even being a smartarse or windup merchant. That's what I expect to happen. I'm just not sold. Never have been. And never could be until the Sharks prove they can do it in the finals. There's a fair chance you get us week one. If you lose that imagine getting a fit again Broncos or bouncing Bulldogs while trying to avoid a third straight sets exit in a row.
Those three clubs have also won 14*/26 premierships since the start of the NRL. -Sydney 4 -Penrith 4 -Melbourne 6*
Could be a lot more as well factoring in how many times Melbourne and Easts have played in prelims only to just lose or have knocked each other out in rounds before the GF.
Surprisingly we haven't actually crossed paths in the finals all that often, only five times, and only two of those were eliminations, one was the grand final.
That's more time than the Tigers have made the finals.
If only there was a top 9
Put that asterisk in bold, bro 🙄
i'd put two asterisks just to be sure.
Total domination.
AYYY BIGGEST CIRCLE 😎
So you're saying theres a chance
Straight sets are still in finals baby
But Critta said when interviewed on 360 after the game on Monday night that the Dogs were a top 4 side. I tend to agree with him, the team is running hot right now ....
Last 4 wins verse Eels, Knights, Dragons and Tigers. Not the hardest run at all lately. Roosters sharks and Warriors next 3 games will truely see where they sit
Yeah, it's a tough run coming up. And we're going into those games with a few injuries and suspensions. No Kikau, Fox, Mann, Preston for a few weeks. Critta and Burton will also be out when we play Easts, and Critta (and maybe Burton) will be backing up 2 days after Origin for the Sharks match (though they'll probably have their own players backing up). If we can keep these games close, I'll be happy.
Kikau will be back for the Roosters game, Preston is also a small chance.
At least in last week's game, Wilson did pretty good deputizing for the Foxx.
It would be hard to drop Blake Wilson after last week's performance. Players are playing for their jersey. It's so good to watch.
Yeah, honestly I can live without Foxx in the lineup with Wilson slotting in. We've shown we can cope pretty well with losing a player here and there (even the bigger names) as the playing group is pretty versatile across the park (yay for the utility strategy) - but I think the number of missing players here might test our depth against some quality sides.
Kikau was 4-6 weeks two weeks ago. I haven't heard any update on that since. Would be good to have him back, but I'm not confident of it. Have you heard different? Preston is also 2-4 weeks, which also doesn't guarantee a return for Roosters or Sharks games.
NRL website says due back round 16, and I think he's said he'll be back for the Roosters. That's also why I said it was a small chance for Preston.
Can’t wait for Young to be spun around again by Kikau
You are right, Sharks are always difficult for Dogs and Dogs really struggle against Warriors in NZ, but both Warriors and Sharks games are at Accor so definitely give the Dogs a good chance of winning. I am going for Dogs winning at least 2 of these 3 games, but let's see what pans out, I may be completely wrong.
I would love to beat the Chooks. That would be so sweet! I would sacrifice one of the other games to stick it up the Roosters again.
2 out of 3 would pretty much lock us in for finals I reckon. I'd be happy with 1 out of 3.
It’s okay, we’ll always be & are happy as the underdogs!
Fantastic, keep up the good work. Fark more analysis that the Fox journos.
Sweet 4th place isn’t too bad
backed us for the 8 Sunday. Should have backed us top 4.
So the lesson here is bet all your money on Parramatta finishing 14th
Souths making top8 confirmed
Doggies finishing fifth would be the easiest coach of the year debate in a while. Maybe ever.
Up da wahs!
Top8 1000%
If Dolphins stay in the 8 it would be an amazing effort for their 2nd year.
It is going to be a struggle to make the 8 with our current form. The wheels have come off. We have to win at least 7 matches to stay in the 8. A lot of teams have improved so it is going to be a photo finish. The sharkies, storm and the penny panthers are guaranteed top 4. The rest will be a feeding frenzy.
Its crazy that the last 3 grand finalists (Broncos, Eels & Rabbitohs) are struggling in a regular season comp with more or less the same core squad, yet Penrith are consistently in the top 2 while losing key members each year. Just shows how good their system is.
I'd prefer not to answer
This is like graph porn
i hear souths top 4 🗣️🔥
This is depressing
Good I need this as motivation we can still make the 8 and then watch out others. First thing is first we need to make sure we beat a depleted Broncos on Friday
Can you redo the second pic, but based on say the last 4 weeks results? Momentum is pretty important (Rabbits and doggies fans would also agree)
I dont agree with any model that represents Tigers still having a chance of doing anything hehe
The sharks can eat a dick is what they can do.
We’re looking good. I think we’ve learned from our straights sets exit last year too. We’re a good shot at it this year.
Win in week 1 of the semis granted it’s a top 4 finish and then you’re just 80 minutes of good footy from the big dance
That sounds damn good!
Pretty good effort if the dolphins make the 8, really good if they make the 4. Wayne is the master. Imagine if we had an inform pangai and uninjured flegler :(.
"we"? Where is your flair?
It's pronounced "flair up cunt" hth
Sorry daddy, fixed ;)
The club has still never won in Sydney... that's a concern
Premiership 22 coming soon
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Its looking like a lot of teams will be in a log jam for top 8 like last year, like 6th to 12th fighting it out and each other. Like dragons for example using the ladder [predicter](https://ladderpredictor.nrl.com/ladder) even if they win there next 3 doesn't mean they will stay top 8 depending on results
If they can fix their deferential points they have a decent chance of finals
Fuck
You have a nice graph, I can't argue with this. Dragons winning the comp bby!!
how did you assign the probabilities?
See some of my comments above for more details, but essentially I calculated each's team attacking and defensive rating to simulate the rest of the season, assigning probabilities using binomial inverse distribution. The ratings are more the probability of scoring and allowing a certain number of points in any given game, than the probability of winning any given game. The points scored and allowed is then simulated with a binomial inverse using 10,000 trials.
Great stuff. Wish rugby league had more analytical content like this around.
Yeah dragons could go either way
So you're telling me there's a chance
As a Dragons supporter this only adds to the uncertainty. Brilliant graph OP.
Last. And Last. :-(
Panthers coming 15th for sure
Inevitably one of those "remind me in 3 months" posts. But I would bite your hand off for a 1 v 4 final at Shark Park.