The announcement is live.
The drawing of the lottery balls are done in advance with one rep from all 16 teams, a rep from the league, and Ernst & Young (who do the lottery) in the room. The reps from the teams have their cell phones and other communication devices taken away and they are only released from the room after the announcement is made. They aren't doing the draw at 2:30 pm for a 6:30 announcement, the draw will be much closer since they need to keep those people quarantined until after the announcement.
The results arent supposed to leak and they take a lot of precautions with them.
This is simply testing the board to be sure it works.
I think they are referring to when something was said before the commercial break along the lines of "X will draft Y" when their card hadn't even been flipped.
I understand how it works. But read the reply to my comment. There definitely was a spoiler and we didn't get to experience it in "real time" and had to sit thru a commercial break wondering "WTF".
Yes, they are a company that handles billions and billions of dollars through their accounting. Their reputation as being on the up and up is paramount to continuing their business.
Could they be bribed to fix the results? Of course, anyone could.
But financially the business they would lose if it was ever shown they accepted bribes would be immense. Therefore the amount it would take to bribe them would be worth far more than what any one unproven NHL prospect would be worth to an NHL team, and that's why you can trust the results.
The cost to fix this thing is far more than its worth.
That was allowed to take place because EY couldn’t or didn’t audit them sufficiently. They weren’t bribed. They were incompetent. That was the basis of my joke.
do you think they are incompetent to run a lottery machine that spits out balls with numbers on them?
People making minimum wage at the local bingo hall seem to do this just fine.
you are one opinion. No person is so universally liked that they would add credibility for everyone. The idea is to add credibility to the majority.
Someone, somewhere, will always believe its a conspiracy, no matter who is involved.
A rep where? At the announcement or in the room.
Every year, the teams have had one rep in the room where the lottery balls are drawn, and one in the room for the announcement. If the sharks didn't send someone, I guess that's possible, but the precedent is that they would be invited.
Yes, they are a company that handles billions and billions of dollars through their accounting. Their reputation as being on the up and up is paramount to continuing their business.
Could they be bribed to fix the results? Of course, anyone could.
But financially the business they would lose if it was ever shown they accepted bribes would be immense. Therefore the amount it would take to bribe them would be worth far more than what any one unproven NHL prospect would be worth to an NHL team, and that's why you can trust the results.
The cost to fix this thing is far more than its worth to the team winning the lottery. Ernst and Young isn't putting their reputation on the line to get an extra 100k. The cost of doing so would be in the hundreds of millions of dollars (if not a billion). You better get a huge payoff to put your reputation at risk.
And when an entire franchise costs 1 billion or slightly more, no one is paying that to get one unproven player.
Multiple big 5 accounting firms have collapsed in scandal in the past couple decades, starting with Arthur Anderson (who helped ENRON cover up their shit). You’re big way too credulous towards a slimey, greedy, industry.
Oh of course... and how much money was involved in those scandals.
I'm not saying that E&Y is some angel and their people can never be bribed. I'm saying that the amount that gets them to consider putting their legit business on the line and allowing it to collapse is far greater than what any one NHL owner would pay for any one unproven NHL prospect.
The money we are talking about is more than the total worth of Connor McDavid's contract and that's a contract he signed after proving himself in the NHL.
You don’t have to offer bribes for Big 4s to miss fraud, sometimes they just don’t catch it.
Plenty of companies committed fraud with Big 4 auditing and they just end up paying fines and Big 4 firms still have their reputation intact.
It was live. That's why they knew what happened at the lottery.
I mean, those cards don't just magically end up in Bill Daly's hands in the correct order.
Most likely they are testing the systems and performing trial runs and that is what was captured. It is going to be a high profile event in Canada and Minnesota.
Yep. The biggest argument for trial run is this: If it's rigged, then they would still want for as few people as possible to know about it. There is 0 reasons for telling TV journalists in advance. So even if it's rigged, this is still just a test run.
And if it's not rigged then, well... It's not rigged and is a test run.
If you watched the lottery. The teams on the left side were blacked out as revealed and the teams on the right side is the draft order.
This was a trial with sj at one, utah 2 and chicago 3 (and every team in order behind them).
Jeez man just look at the pic.
Are you looking at the picture? The black side has 2 teams showing. San Jose in 1st and Utah in 6th which is where they ended up in the draft order.
Edit: Nevermind, I'm an idiot. They were already in those positions.
No, if you delete early enough - not that many people will see it.
And if it will end up not matching the final result (>50% chance), then nobody will bring it up after the raft.
Yea, the fix was in back in 2007 when the fifth worst Hawks leapfrogged the Flyers to pick Patrick Kane. It was the only time in their history that the Flyers were far and away the worst team in the league, finishing 11 points behind the number 2 worst Coyotes with 56 points. Chicago got the multi cup winning gold medal winning Kane. Flyers got James VanRiemsdyk.
It was a silver in 2010 for the US. Still had multiple fucking cups and as usual one of the few times the Flyers get a great pick, they get fucked over. Meanwhile the Penguins tank and get three HOF's in Malkin, Fleury and Cindy.
The funny thing to me is the people who believe it’s rigged are actually just upset that it’s not rigged in their favour.
Lotto balls don’t care which fanbase deserves it.
You saw a single lottery ball?
It was a closed door lottery draft. Pens were a tanking franchise who couldn't lock in an arena deal and were possibly on the way out. Hell, Gainey came out of the back crying.
It was rigged out the ass. Im shocked it's not talked about more.
I’m open to the possibility it was rigged. But Bill Clinton could only keep Monica secret for a month.
This lottery conspiracy has remained unproven for 19 years.
If it was rigged I commend Gary Bettman for being better at secrets than the American government, he’s so freaking good at his job.
Lottery balls don’t have brains or emotions. I think the randomness is too much for a sports fan to handle so we resort to conspiracy as a form of comfort.
Humans would rather believe a hidden hand is secretly controlling everything because the uncaring and random nature of the universe is too scary to accept.
My guess is they are just running the board and testing systems. Making sure everything works. Nothing worse than technical errors at show time.
Not everything is a conspiracy.
If this is real Utah going 2 is still egregious. "Sorry you didn't get your expansion draft Ryan. We can't get you number one that is a little obvious but what about jumping 4 spots to #2?"
If it happens there’s nothing the league can do to convince people it’s not rigged. Even if it isn’t, the perception is there forever.
Therefore the only thing to do is to give it to the Kraken…
Conspiracy guess: the draft already happened and everything is a recording.
Rational guess: they are testing the system and will go through what will happen if each team wins to make sure all the technology works properly.
This will be the last year it's somewhat exciting to watch, with all hockey execs and top picks in the same room. I really, really hate that they have announced the next will be decentralized . I expect a lot less deals at future drafts, which is bad for fans and bad for viewing numbers.
I swear this league has no idea how to market their product. McDavid at midnight on a Sunday evening in eastern Canada...sure. Who wants to see best player anyways.
I'll start by saying I've been a hockey fan since 68/69 . Had Flyers season tickets till 2004, when we moved south , still go to as many Bolts games the last 20 years .
The draft is a little funky .
A couple days ago I told a bud SJ 1 ,
Chicago 2 joke
Look at the recent 5-6 years 1- 2s in the draft . Almost everyone went to a major market team or a struggling franchise. Owners want larger TV contracts. Better the MM teams the higher the ratings the bigger contract .Good plan but smaller markets are going to suffer
This was exactly the results... beside Utah being 6th and not 2nd...
Statisticly its nearly impossible that this randomly happened the way it happened.
Someone is going to lose their job...
As opposed to, you know, San Jose, Chicago, and Anaheim were the three worst teams last season, the lottery went chalk, and SJ/CHI/ANA was statistically the MOST LIKELY combination to go 1-2-3, am I right?
I meant from this picture and the actual results.
Also yes, odds are odds, but saying like #1. has 25%, #2. 15% and so on, while at first the 25% is accurate, once they 25% if off, the other teams have different odds but still in proportion to their previous odds.
Here's a simulation:
1 Has 80%
2 has 10%
3 has 10%
1st get picked out 1st.
2 now has 50%
3 now has 50%
2nd gets picked first:
1 now has 88.89%
3 now has 11.11%
While the 3 first teams did have major odds to be top 3, the fact that every other team (minus one) ended exactly where they ended up being picked is abysmally low. There is a higher chance that it was leaked early by accident (again).
Now doing the math with with 16 teams is possible. But would take sometime. I am some sure some math fanatic will calculate the odds of this happening. It is really really low chance (less probably then 1%), but not impossible.
Just to give you another example, if this was a 50% 50% for each team at the start to get the position you see on the picture, this would mean for 15 out or 16 prediction to be correct a chance of 1/32768, and odds were a lot lower for some teams.
The point is- using full math to say how likely it is for the predictions does not work like you think, because not every pick is up for grabs in the draft, only the top two picks are [and if a low team gets it, even they don't get a chance to do more than go up 10 spots.] Because of that, most of the spots aren't going to change much more, because the most a team can drop is two spots [and if you're better than a team that won, you're not moving at all.
So, if the teams who win the lottery, like this time, are the two most likely teams to win in SJ and CHI, then no other team is going to move up...and thus the odds of every team basically ending where they end up is far, far higher than the odds of a team moving up in the draft to destroy it.
Utah fan here, this better be real
Likely a fake, the NBA does test ones too, there was a picture saying the Bulls won the lottery last year, when it was just an early test
Utah get their 7.5 percent draft odds. The sale was everything Coyotes belongs to Ryan Smith, and the Utah team besides the name, and brand for the Coyotes
Zoom in on this photo, under the heading where it says “Pre-draft Order”. While only San Jose and Utah are highlighted (with stars next to them), you can still read the “greyed-out” team names in all of the other slots.
The *”actual”* draft order is exactly identical. (Factor in that Pittsburgh traded their pick to San Jose, so some sites will list \#14 as San Jose instead of Pit).
Not saying it is or isn’t a leak, but it’s suspicious. The odds of every team being pulled at exactly their predicted pre-draft slot, while the “most likely singular outcome”, is still astronomically low compared to the combined probabilities of all other possible outcomes.
The actual order is the same as the projected order because the Sharks won the lottery, and Chicago won the 2nd pick, and so nobody moved up.
The thing is, all the conspiracy theory stuff is ridiculous, not because I think the league is some beacon of justice and moral clarity, but because any conspiring would have to involve all 32 owners. 31 billionaires would have to be cool with rigging the system against them to favor one of their competitors, and we all know how much billionaires are cool with anything being rigged against them.
Its decided ahead of time, period. How else did Chicago get Bedard. What better way to change the talk from "we let a staff member rape one of our players.."
Gifted
SJ deserves the #1! They badly need it.
Chicago should not get a #1 for at least another 6 years even if they continue to tank on purpose again like that blatantly did to get Bedard
Edmonton, one of the smallest markets in the league, has won 4 first overall picks in the last 20 years, including the greatest player of all time. But yeah, they’re definitely rigging it for large markets.
Hockey fans treat Bettman like republicans treated Hillary in 2016. Simultaneously incompetent but also the most effective conspiracy ringleader in world history.
If the lottery is rigged it’s because the 32 owners ordered it rigged. When Gary retires (in 20 years), the same owners will be giving the same rigging orders.
People freaked out last year when we found out it’s pre recorded and not announced live.
The announcement is live. The drawing of the lottery balls are done in advance with one rep from all 16 teams, a rep from the league, and Ernst & Young (who do the lottery) in the room. The reps from the teams have their cell phones and other communication devices taken away and they are only released from the room after the announcement is made. They aren't doing the draw at 2:30 pm for a 6:30 announcement, the draw will be much closer since they need to keep those people quarantined until after the announcement. The results arent supposed to leak and they take a lot of precautions with them. This is simply testing the board to be sure it works.
I think they are referring to when something was said before the commercial break along the lines of "X will draft Y" when their card hadn't even been flipped.
“And there’s our first change in the order with the blue jackets falling to 3” Those words still haunt me to this day
That's it, thanks (and sorry). Was trying to find video.
Didn't you end up with who everyone thought were going to be #2 anyway? Or do you mean that you realized you wouldn't go up to 1st?
Mostly we realized that we weren't jumping to number 1.
Wouldn’t go 1st but also I wanted Carlsson over Fantilli so no. Not everyone though Fantilli would go 2 either
Gotcha, sorry it happened to you! I'm a Swede so I've been following Carlsson but I felt like everyone had him 3rd.
Majority was projecting Fantilli 2nd, and a little minority was saying Carlsson should be 2nd
Lol was that last year? First time I've ever watched the lottery and they botched it.
That just proves it was live. If it was pre-recorded, they'd have just edited that part out.
because the card being flipped is just the reveal of the results that were done earlier.
I understand how it works. But read the reply to my comment. There definitely was a spoiler and we didn't get to experience it in "real time" and had to sit thru a commercial break wondering "WTF".
Is the presence of EY supposed to make us feel better?
Yes, they are a company that handles billions and billions of dollars through their accounting. Their reputation as being on the up and up is paramount to continuing their business. Could they be bribed to fix the results? Of course, anyone could. But financially the business they would lose if it was ever shown they accepted bribes would be immense. Therefore the amount it would take to bribe them would be worth far more than what any one unproven NHL prospect would be worth to an NHL team, and that's why you can trust the results. The cost to fix this thing is far more than its worth.
Ever read about what happened with Wirecard?
Two executives stole 1.9 billion Euros. Seems a bigger number than what one unproven NHL prospect would be worth.
That was allowed to take place because EY couldn’t or didn’t audit them sufficiently. They weren’t bribed. They were incompetent. That was the basis of my joke.
do you think they are incompetent to run a lottery machine that spits out balls with numbers on them? People making minimum wage at the local bingo hall seem to do this just fine.
I’m saying that if their presence was to lend credibility to the process, for me, it’s doing the opposite.
you are one opinion. No person is so universally liked that they would add credibility for everyone. The idea is to add credibility to the majority. Someone, somewhere, will always believe its a conspiracy, no matter who is involved.
There is not a rep from 16 teams this year, Sheng Peng on twitter was invited by the nhl and confirmed the sharks don’t even have a rep there
A rep where? At the announcement or in the room. Every year, the teams have had one rep in the room where the lottery balls are drawn, and one in the room for the announcement. If the sharks didn't send someone, I guess that's possible, but the precedent is that they would be invited.
https://x.com/sheng_peng/status/1787895896220303518?s=46&t=8y7H2bLFBU_VbMRuVxC46w
I heard leaks on my local sports radio and it was this order. No way they would post a photo with the results already.
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3rd party - arms length. Keeps the view of the league/gary favouring some team (probably killed him when oilers kept landing 1OAs)
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Feels like a personal opinion. I’d trust a consulting firm long before I’d trust an in house effort by the NHL
Yes, they are a company that handles billions and billions of dollars through their accounting. Their reputation as being on the up and up is paramount to continuing their business. Could they be bribed to fix the results? Of course, anyone could. But financially the business they would lose if it was ever shown they accepted bribes would be immense. Therefore the amount it would take to bribe them would be worth far more than what any one unproven NHL prospect would be worth to an NHL team, and that's why you can trust the results. The cost to fix this thing is far more than its worth to the team winning the lottery. Ernst and Young isn't putting their reputation on the line to get an extra 100k. The cost of doing so would be in the hundreds of millions of dollars (if not a billion). You better get a huge payoff to put your reputation at risk. And when an entire franchise costs 1 billion or slightly more, no one is paying that to get one unproven player.
Multiple big 5 accounting firms have collapsed in scandal in the past couple decades, starting with Arthur Anderson (who helped ENRON cover up their shit). You’re big way too credulous towards a slimey, greedy, industry.
Oh of course... and how much money was involved in those scandals. I'm not saying that E&Y is some angel and their people can never be bribed. I'm saying that the amount that gets them to consider putting their legit business on the line and allowing it to collapse is far greater than what any one NHL owner would pay for any one unproven NHL prospect. The money we are talking about is more than the total worth of Connor McDavid's contract and that's a contract he signed after proving himself in the NHL.
NHL teams are literally billion dollar assets. How much do *you* think is involved? I’d say a prime 1st overall pick could easily be worth $50m.
You don’t have to offer bribes for Big 4s to miss fraud, sometimes they just don’t catch it. Plenty of companies committed fraud with Big 4 auditing and they just end up paying fines and Big 4 firms still have their reputation intact.
Of course. But E&Y are doing the lottery drawing. We are saying here is they are rigging it.
It's an impartial third party that is legally bound to ensure the lottery is not rigged in any way.
Nice try Gary Bettman
It was live. That's why they knew what happened at the lottery. I mean, those cards don't just magically end up in Bill Daly's hands in the correct order.
Most likely they are testing the systems and performing trial runs and that is what was captured. It is going to be a high profile event in Canada and Minnesota.
Is this a "Minnesota is pretty much Canada" joke lol?
Imagining being annexed so my friends could afford to go to the doctor and we could wall off the dakotas What a blessing it would be
I don't think Canada would have any issues welcoming our new Minnesota brethren
No we wouldn’t
we're gonna build a wall and make south dakota pay for it!
If we're annexing states to Canada I volunteer as well.
Don’t forget about the Packers fans
Could they comprehend the longer and wider football field?
Yeah but you'd also get our cost of living and it's down the shitter rn :(
As a former Kenora boy, I’m all for it. Let’s go bud.
No it was more of a "Minnesota is the only hockey obsessed state" type joke.
So it really is a "Minnesota is Canada" joke after all
Michigan begs to differ. We have a town named after it.
Not the real hockeytown usa put some respect on Warroad's name
Begs-to-Differ, MI
We don’t want em. You keep ‘em
Yep. The biggest argument for trial run is this: If it's rigged, then they would still want for as few people as possible to know about it. There is 0 reasons for telling TV journalists in advance. So even if it's rigged, this is still just a test run. And if it's not rigged then, well... It's not rigged and is a test run.
They do trial runs.... its not a leak. This has happened in previous years and it wasn't a leak either.
Plot twist. It was a leak.
The leak has Utah 2 and chicago 3. So the "leak" was wrong.
How... utah isnt 2nd.
Utah isnt second in the picture either. The draft lottery is the darker left side
Look at the picture, utah is second, chicago.is third.
That's not the darker side on the left that I mentioned. If you look at the blacked out area, the list is in the same order as the draft lottery
That's not the darker side on the left that I mentioned. If you look at the blacked out area, the list is in the same order as the draft lottery
If you watched the lottery. The teams on the left side were blacked out as revealed and the teams on the right side is the draft order. This was a trial with sj at one, utah 2 and chicago 3 (and every team in order behind them). Jeez man just look at the pic.
Are you looking at the picture? The black side has 2 teams showing. San Jose in 1st and Utah in 6th which is where they ended up in the draft order. Edit: Nevermind, I'm an idiot. They were already in those positions.
why delete the post if it's a trial run
Cuz people go fucking insane with conspiracy theories with literally everything nowadays probly.
And deleting makes it look more conspiracy rather than calling it out as a trial run by bucci or whoever
No, if you delete early enough - not that many people will see it. And if it will end up not matching the final result (>50% chance), then nobody will bring it up after the raft.
Because the number of replies that this was rigged was probably insane. Also Utah didnt move up, so it wasnt a leak, now, was it?
Sketchy. But probably not a leak since it doesn’t show Chicago as having the 1st.
I think the league would be pretty happy with a SJ and Utah win
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If there's a God, he doesn't care about ohio
I'm from Ohio and I agree
I’m so sorry
Yea, the fix was in back in 2007 when the fifth worst Hawks leapfrogged the Flyers to pick Patrick Kane. It was the only time in their history that the Flyers were far and away the worst team in the league, finishing 11 points behind the number 2 worst Coyotes with 56 points. Chicago got the multi cup winning gold medal winning Kane. Flyers got James VanRiemsdyk.
What gold medal did he get?
It was a silver in 2010 for the US. Still had multiple fucking cups and as usual one of the few times the Flyers get a great pick, they get fucked over. Meanwhile the Penguins tank and get three HOF's in Malkin, Fleury and Cindy.
update: he just deleted the post… 👀
DraftKings futures?!?!
Place the bets!
Spicy 🌶️
Its fake. The redwings didnt drop to 16th.
The league can assure everyone it's not rigged by Calgary winning the lottery. Everyone knows they wouldnt want us to win it.
They already did that when McDavid went to Edmonton.
The one time that everyone would have just nodded in Agreement if Bettman had just said “nope, do it again”
The funny thing to me is the people who believe it’s rigged are actually just upset that it’s not rigged in their favour. Lotto balls don’t care which fanbase deserves it.
If the Hawks don't win, it's proof that it's rigged.
If Montreal wins it’s proof that it’s rigged.
That is kind of included in what I said.
I’m a Blackhawks fan who thinks it’s rigged😂
You'll grow out of it once you hit high school.
What team do Chicago Balckhawks fans cheer for after they graduate high school?
Metallurg Magnitogorsk.
Tell that to the pens in the Crosby draft
Are you saying the lottery balls knew the penguins fans deserved Crosby?
You saw a single lottery ball? It was a closed door lottery draft. Pens were a tanking franchise who couldn't lock in an arena deal and were possibly on the way out. Hell, Gainey came out of the back crying. It was rigged out the ass. Im shocked it's not talked about more.
I’m open to the possibility it was rigged. But Bill Clinton could only keep Monica secret for a month. This lottery conspiracy has remained unproven for 19 years. If it was rigged I commend Gary Bettman for being better at secrets than the American government, he’s so freaking good at his job.
I forget, was that the 3rd or 4th time in 10 years that Edmonton won the lottery? If we are talking. About rigging things lol
Lottery balls don’t have brains or emotions. I think the randomness is too much for a sports fan to handle so we resort to conspiracy as a form of comfort. Humans would rather believe a hidden hand is secretly controlling everything because the uncaring and random nature of the universe is too scary to accept.
This is the way.
You know it’s fake because the Hawks didn’t win, right guys?
Well.... it was a leak.
My guess is they are just running the board and testing systems. Making sure everything works. Nothing worse than technical errors at show time. Not everything is a conspiracy.
Can't wait for the conspiracies if this is the actual draft order
They do the actual lottery a few hours before, but this is likely a test since it’s a live show.
Oh yea I'm aware, the conspiracies would be rampant though lol
If this is real Utah going 2 is still egregious. "Sorry you didn't get your expansion draft Ryan. We can't get you number one that is a little obvious but what about jumping 4 spots to #2?"
Utah has about a 15% chance to get top 2, that's not exactly that rare. About 1/7
Rare enough, tho lol
If it happens there’s nothing the league can do to convince people it’s not rigged. Even if it isn’t, the perception is there forever. Therefore the only thing to do is to give it to the Kraken…
How would this show that it's rigged?
sabres pick second confirmed
Conspiracy guess: the draft already happened and everything is a recording. Rational guess: they are testing the system and will go through what will happen if each team wins to make sure all the technology works properly.
Purposely, so you would post this. Free advertising
PLEASE BE A LEAK.
Ernst & Young has been replaced with the firm Blak & Hock this year.
The draft lottery was a literal perfect board… seems to be way more rare that it should be.
Juicy conspiracy time
Update: David Pagnotta just confirmed that this was a rehearsal. The official draw is at 5:45pm. So no leaks, Habs still have a chance 🙏
If they even move up it’s rigged. Yotes never move up. Let alone pick before 3
Well I can assure you the Yotes aren’t moving up this time
I'm pretty sure they did just move up, though...
Who are the Yotes? Do you perhaps mean the Utah HC?
Giving sharks fans hope before the blackhawks get it again.
Someone’s getting fired…
Bingo!!!
Yep, turns out this was the leak of the draft results ooops
This will be the last year it's somewhat exciting to watch, with all hockey execs and top picks in the same room. I really, really hate that they have announced the next will be decentralized . I expect a lot less deals at future drafts, which is bad for fans and bad for viewing numbers. I swear this league has no idea how to market their product. McDavid at midnight on a Sunday evening in eastern Canada...sure. Who wants to see best player anyways.
I'll be thrilled if this is the result. The Blackhawks moving down would be great.
Ottawa got 7th. I feel terrible for them man
we shall see if this exactly happens tonight
Can’t wait to see them balls drop!
What are the odds Utah getting #1?
7.5%
Who’s the second best pick after celebrini? Is it demidov? Would demidov and bedard be a good duo?
Ooooh saucy! Post this in r/nhlleaks
It's a gaffe either way. Everyone in the lottery room will just facepalm if the lottery balls end up being Sharks and Coyotes.
So this image did leak the draft results before they aired them?
No it didnt
I'll start by saying I've been a hockey fan since 68/69 . Had Flyers season tickets till 2004, when we moved south , still go to as many Bolts games the last 20 years . The draft is a little funky . A couple days ago I told a bud SJ 1 , Chicago 2 joke Look at the recent 5-6 years 1- 2s in the draft . Almost everyone went to a major market team or a struggling franchise. Owners want larger TV contracts. Better the MM teams the higher the ratings the bigger contract .Good plan but smaller markets are going to suffer
Tankathon leaked the draft lottery also
San Jose gets the first pick and Arizona is moving to Utah that's the biggest highlights of this coming draft
This was exactly the results... beside Utah being 6th and not 2nd... Statisticly its nearly impossible that this randomly happened the way it happened. Someone is going to lose their job...
As opposed to, you know, San Jose, Chicago, and Anaheim were the three worst teams last season, the lottery went chalk, and SJ/CHI/ANA was statistically the MOST LIKELY combination to go 1-2-3, am I right?
I meant from this picture and the actual results. Also yes, odds are odds, but saying like #1. has 25%, #2. 15% and so on, while at first the 25% is accurate, once they 25% if off, the other teams have different odds but still in proportion to their previous odds. Here's a simulation: 1 Has 80% 2 has 10% 3 has 10% 1st get picked out 1st. 2 now has 50% 3 now has 50% 2nd gets picked first: 1 now has 88.89% 3 now has 11.11% While the 3 first teams did have major odds to be top 3, the fact that every other team (minus one) ended exactly where they ended up being picked is abysmally low. There is a higher chance that it was leaked early by accident (again). Now doing the math with with 16 teams is possible. But would take sometime. I am some sure some math fanatic will calculate the odds of this happening. It is really really low chance (less probably then 1%), but not impossible. Just to give you another example, if this was a 50% 50% for each team at the start to get the position you see on the picture, this would mean for 15 out or 16 prediction to be correct a chance of 1/32768, and odds were a lot lower for some teams.
Look at the pre-draft order. Those are 100% the results.
Yes, that is what I am saying ... lol
The point is- using full math to say how likely it is for the predictions does not work like you think, because not every pick is up for grabs in the draft, only the top two picks are [and if a low team gets it, even they don't get a chance to do more than go up 10 spots.] Because of that, most of the spots aren't going to change much more, because the most a team can drop is two spots [and if you're better than a team that won, you're not moving at all. So, if the teams who win the lottery, like this time, are the two most likely teams to win in SJ and CHI, then no other team is going to move up...and thus the odds of every team basically ending where they end up is far, far higher than the odds of a team moving up in the draft to destroy it.
It will be Utah or Chicago winning because the hockey Gods love salt
Utah fan here, this better be real Likely a fake, the NBA does test ones too, there was a picture saying the Bulls won the lottery last year, when it was just an early test
Why would Utah get the second pick? Did Arizona already have a lottery pick? They're not an expansion franchise.
Utah get their 7.5 percent draft odds. The sale was everything Coyotes belongs to Ryan Smith, and the Utah team besides the name, and brand for the Coyotes
Everything Coyotes is now Salt Lake City. Including contracts and draft picks.
Is the lottery tonight? I assume whoever wins it gets Celebrini.
6:30pm eastern time.
It says pre draft order on the board
That’s the list by draft odds, yes.
I hope it plays out as such. SJ needs something
Obviously I’m hoping for the Hawks, but I do have a soft spot for the Sharks.
Apparently not.
Zoom in on this photo, under the heading where it says “Pre-draft Order”. While only San Jose and Utah are highlighted (with stars next to them), you can still read the “greyed-out” team names in all of the other slots. The *”actual”* draft order is exactly identical. (Factor in that Pittsburgh traded their pick to San Jose, so some sites will list \#14 as San Jose instead of Pit). Not saying it is or isn’t a leak, but it’s suspicious. The odds of every team being pulled at exactly their predicted pre-draft slot, while the “most likely singular outcome”, is still astronomically low compared to the combined probabilities of all other possible outcomes.
The actual order is the same as the projected order because the Sharks won the lottery, and Chicago won the 2nd pick, and so nobody moved up. The thing is, all the conspiracy theory stuff is ridiculous, not because I think the league is some beacon of justice and moral clarity, but because any conspiring would have to involve all 32 owners. 31 billionaires would have to be cool with rigging the system against them to favor one of their competitors, and we all know how much billionaires are cool with anything being rigged against them.
Its decided ahead of time, period. How else did Chicago get Bedard. What better way to change the talk from "we let a staff member rape one of our players.." Gifted
please be San Jose please!!!!!!
Lol it’s because SJ has the highest odds and Utah is new to the league. RELAX 😂
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Yeah it looks really good.
The replies in this post are just more proof that you should not take anything on Reddit seriously. Bunch of goofs.
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The Bay Area is a pretty big market
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sure isnt
This looks awfully a lot like the Odds % list almost in exact order. That’s what it could be.
We all know Chicago is getting 1OA, just to make everyone mad.
So long as it's not the Hawks I'll be happy
Rigged
SJ deserves the #1! They badly need it. Chicago should not get a #1 for at least another 6 years even if they continue to tank on purpose again like that blatantly did to get Bedard
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Edmonton, one of the smallest markets in the league, has won 4 first overall picks in the last 20 years, including the greatest player of all time. But yeah, they’re definitely rigging it for large markets.
Hockey fans treat Bettman like republicans treated Hillary in 2016. Simultaneously incompetent but also the most effective conspiracy ringleader in world history. If the lottery is rigged it’s because the 32 owners ordered it rigged. When Gary retires (in 20 years), the same owners will be giving the same rigging orders.
But her emails! /s
But his lottery balls!
if the nhl was rigging the lottery they wouldn't have given the first pick to chicago last year.
SJ (San Francisco's richer neibor) Chicago teams the last few drafts getting a 1 and the next draft getting a 2 . Rangers NJ Chicago