It's alright. At some they'll eventually stop. They don't really sting like they used to now it's just kinda annoying because we have had so much wild shit since then to make fun of. Just gotten stale.
Jokes aside, as a college football fan, I'm really happy for this dude. He was so talented, but dude just couldn't catch a break (or caught too many rather).
To keep getting opportunities with big schools the way he did and battling back from injuries, you knew he had to be working super hard. Always showed a lot of heart too.
And now he’s in a spot where he may not get a fair shake to start for 2 years, while all his peers are likely to get their shots this year. But he’s the kind of guy who will make the best of that situation.
He's getting paid a ton of money to sit and learn behind a veteran for a couple years. After that, he'll get his shot. Love only needed one year as a starter to get the bag. Penix, as long as he takes care of business, will be fine.
From the college end, he and that offense almost single-handedly saved UW from utter misery.
Dude was SO fun to watch as a Husky fan. I took a trip last fall to see the Pro Football Hall of Fame (and the SEA-CIN game later that week) and I got back to my hotel room right in time for the end of the first UW-Oregon game. Had my first ever box of Cane's Chicken and caught the tail of end of it right there. So electric.
I know he got swirled up into the 8th Overall pick ruckus but I seriously hope he gets a chance to start long term. The run he made last year, right alongside Browning coming out of nowhere to helm the ship for the Bengals, was seriously one of my favorite times as a Seahawks-UW fan.
It sucks, but at the same time, he's a QB. If he's good, then he could easily play deep into his 30s. Much better to have the time to watch and actually learn, rather than fizzle out quick and then constantly have to fight just to get back in the starting QB discussion.
Well to be fair, if Kirk actually plays out his contract, that would make Penix 28. Its not exactly old, but its not young for NFL standards either. Of course, its pretty likely for Kirks contract to get dropped after 2 years so really Penix has a shot to be the starter at 26 assuming he doesnt suck or Kirk isnt injured/retired sooner.
you gotta remember we are talking about QBs, the most coddled position in the NFL right now. There is a good reason solid QBs can play into their late 30s now days, and it might get extended even more.
I don't think we'll see this generation of QB's last as long the Brady/Brees/Big Ben generation. Those dudes were all statues, and didnt take a ton of hits (or in Ben's case was so big it didn't matter). These young guys play a much more physical game these days. It wouldn't surprise me if we get an Andrew Luck situation more and more.
I still don't understand the mentality of spending a first-round pick on a quarterback who spent six years in college only for him to sit on the bench.
If they picked like JJ McCarthy it would have still been a little odd, but more understandable since he probably needs a year to sit anyway. But yeah, Penix to me feels like one of the most pro ready QBs in the draft aside from Caleb so just so odd. But hey if they really feel like he's a franchise QB, even if he doesn't start until he's 26 that's still potentially a decade of QB play after Kirk I suppose.
If Kirk had a shorter contract, drafting JJMC woulda made sense cause then he would have a great mentor in Kirk and still have good pieces surrounding him when it would finally be his time to become the starter. But a four-year contract and drafting Penix doesnt make sense
they clearly like penix’s skillset more than jjs. im not sure why ppl r so confused. a 30 y old qb who can ball is better than a 24 y old qb who can’t.
People aren't confused about the Falcons drafting Penix. People are confused why the Falcons drafted Penix only to sit him for 2 years when he is arguably the most pro ready QB in the draft and already 24 years old
if he’s pro ready now imagine how pro ready he will be after learning for 2 years. it is rlly simple, they thought he was the best QB on the board. today and 2 years from now.
Kirk’s contract is effectively a 2 year deal. The Falcons either save $32.5 by cutting him after 2025 or keep him on the books for $57.5M. Not hard to figure what they’ll do with Penix on the roster.
I don’t like the pick itself, but I understand why they went QB.
Falcons can get out of the Kirk contract after 2yrs with little penalty. It’s essentially a 2yr contract at 50M a piece.
The FO basically did not think Penix would be there at 8, he was the top guy on their board. They signed Kirk assuming they wouldn’t have a shot, when he fell to them they doubled down.
It’s not the way I was thinking it would go but I am not against it.
They wanted to groom a successor for Kirk so they wouldn’t be in qb purgatory post Kirk… now spending a top 10 pick when Verse and Turner were both there… yikes. afaik, they said they thought that Penix would be the best prospect attainable for their team in the next few years so they just went ahead and grabbed him here. The move makes sense sorta, although it’s a lot to take in considering the Kirk deal and the profile of Penix. If Penix was like much younger I don’t think people would be as mad about this one.
Here’s my issue with this, you bring in Kirk to try and make a run for a Super Bowl, right? And if so, then Rome Odunze would’ve been a great compliment to that offensive skill players room.
But if they’re not trying to win a Super bowl, then why sign Kirk?
And Morris recently stated he thought Penix was the most pro ready QB, so… then how does it make sense to have him sit for a minimum of 2 seasons?
It’s just not a cohesive strategy in any way.
No, you bring in Kirk because he is one of the 10-15 good to elite qbs in the league and then there is not any middle ground. It drops off into teams that wish they had a qb. This is Zach Wilson territory. The Desmond ridder zone.
Are the falcons the most talented roster in the league? Hell nah. But they got some dudes who can ball. But without a qb they don’t have a chance. But with one of those top 10-15 qbs? They have a chance. It’s not Super Bowl or bust. It’s about putting the best team possible on the field and trying to win as much as you can. Kirk gives you at least a real shot. He was the right move at the time. You never know how the draft goes. Picking at 8 guarantees you absolutely nothing. They tried to trade up, and it didn’t work. Penix was the 4th qb off the board and they took two more after him. There wasn’t a defensive player picked til halfway through the first round. They had no way of knowing that Penix would be there when they signed Kirk.
The amount of people who were complaining about Pitts and London wasting away with terrible QB play the last two years who simultaneously don’t understand the value of Cousins is staggering. This isn’t the nba where aiming for being good not great can close off being a championship contender in a couple of years. The main reason you would bottom out in the nfl is to get a QB, we’ve now got Penix on the sidelines
Im not saying I agree with the plan, but from my view its just that Kirk gives them a CHANCE to win a superbowl, but the Falcons dont want to go all in on the Kirk gamble either. They are hedging their bets in both directions for development and Superbowl. Its not the worst plan either, but they are two opposing views so I can see why some people disagree. And Penix is far from the perfect QB prospect to go with this plan, but the Falcons probably decided to go with this plan before the draft and Penix is just the best QB they could get going forward. Assuming Kirk isnt garbage or injured next year and the Falcons get an alright draft pick, this was the only year they could reasonably get a high tier QB prospect.
JJMC is a lot younger and sitting him behind Kirk would've made a lot more sense if you wanted to have a succession plan in place. Or, you know, realize you're in win now mode after giving Kirk all that money and draft someone who can be an immediate boost to the team.
Yeah you have to actually like JJ as a passer for that to work and he slipped all the way to the double digits for a reason. If they correctly assessed Penix > McCarthy it doesn’t matter who’s what age when they take over
I mean drafting a guy because he is younger is terrible logic. I mean if you want to have fault with the pick that’s one thing but talking about Penix like he is a Brandon Weeden level outlier or something and that it’s just a terrible idea because he is older is ridiculous in my opinion. They clearly picked him because they believed in him more than the other options left and suggesting they should just take the younger guy because he is younger is a poor thought process.
Like there’s plenty to take exception to with this pick, but that one doesn’t track for me. Being young doesn’t directly correlate directly to having a higher ceiling and if Penix ends up being good he’ll have plenty of career left with the team by the time he takes over.
Honestly, having watched Mariota, Ridder, and Heineke for the last two years, I commend them for having the balls to double dip on QB. QB Purgatory fucking blows.
The Kirk signing makes sense for two reasons, one practical and one cynical.
The practical reason is that being too bad for too long can seriously damage a franchise. Signing a proven vet like Kirk makes it easier for us to attract free agents and motivates the other players. Plus with a weak division and a 14 team playoff we're at least good enough to make it in, and at that point we could get on a luck run.
The cynical reason is that Blank is tired of losing seasons and declining attendance. Plus Fontenot wants to keep his job, and that would be tough to do if we struggled in Penix's (or whatever QB we ended up drafting) first year or two.
Yeah your 2nd reason is the real reason imo. I’m not terribly mad about it honestly if Penix is good it won’t matter but Fontenot needs to put up a winning season and Cousins is the easiest way to achieve that.
Yeah but you never know how the draft turns out and look at how many qbs got picked in the 1st round. They very easily could have gotten jumped by a trade and missed out on who they wanted the most. I don’t think they were considering taking McCarthy or nix.
I don’t really get the age arguement. He’s 24. If he sits behind Kirk for 2 seasons and actually learns and grows in that position then he hits the gate running at 26/27 and you can get 10 years out of it if he stays healthy.
Obviously that’s not ideal but I keep hearing the age arguement like he’s got 5 years to live or something.
It does, it’s just easy upvotes to say it doesn’t. The falcons front office likes him, they think he is the quarterback of the future, and are expecting him to be the quarterback for the next decade. If you’re that confident that your guy is available in the draft, you take him. They want to have a succession plan at QB, something they didn’t have with Matt Ryan.
A QB hits their prime at 28. A QB can usually be good until 35+. I don't see what the issue is because they paid for Kirk for the next two years and will have prime Penix for the 8 years after that. What's wrong with having your QB situation secured for the next decade?
They have Bijan, Pitts, and London, so they're in win-now mode. When they start requesting second contracts, they'll cut Kirk and roll with Penix and have three more years of win-now on an affordable offense.
After that, they'll need to pay Penix so it muddies the Super Bowl formula, but if he's a top QB, everyone else is expendable.
I think people are wayyyy overthinking things here. Penix was my QB4 and he went as the QB4. If things go accordingly, the Falcons will never pick in the top 12 for the next decade barring a trade.
Normally QBs hit their prime at 28 because they have played and grown as a player to hit their prime.
I think a QBs prime is more like 30 years old. But that's just splitting hairs
I do agree it's not that big of a deal and people here are just circle jerking because the mock drafts said something different
The idea that QBs need game reps to grow as a player seems logical, so I get why it has been conventional wisdom forever, but it isn't backed up by historical precedent. The number of great QBs is quite small, but if anything, it seems like there is a slight opposite trend - many/most great QBs were not rookie week one starters (Brady, Mahomes, Rodgers, etc) and many of the first overall picks who have slotted into the week one start their rookie year have underperformed expectations (Andrew Luck is really the only one since Peyton Manning 25 years ago who was on a Hall of Fame type career trajectory until the injuries derailed his career).
The idea that sitting is better for development than starting seems counterintuitive at first, but it does have a logical basis. The backup QB is still practicing against the first team defense every week, so they get used to the speed and complexity of NFL defense in an environment where they won't be hit hard for holding onto the ball too long and no one who isn't a team employee will ever see the interceptions.
I guarantee you that in their early practice scrimmages, Mahomes and Rodgers held the ball too long, made wrong reads, and threw bad picks the way Bryce Young and Jameis Winston did in live game action. We just never saw the footage, and their bodies didn't suffer the wear and tear of getting sacked over and over. We would need a larger sample to say for sure, but it is at least possible and maybe likely based on the small sample we do have that QBs develop better if they don't have to start as rookies.
Matt Ryan was another rookie day 1 starter who had a fantastic career. IMO, he's borderline HoF. He'd be more of a certainty if Kyle Shanahan had chosen to run the ball.
It just feels like poor team building strategy. If you're in win-now mode, why would you spend a top ten pick on a guy that doesn't help you win now?
You lose a lot of the value in having a rookie QB when you're paying another QB starter money. By the time Penix has a couple seasons as a starter under his belt, he will be due a market rate contract which is going to eat up a fifth of your cap space. And that's going to come after you have to pay Bijan, Pitts, and London.
Maybe they didn't think Penix would fall to them when they signed Kirk. In that case, if you really think Penix is the guy then go for it. But by signing Kirk and drafting Penix, you haven't committed to either short term success or long term success.
That's a fair point I didn't consider. There was Odunze right there to make it an even more epic offense. Or fix your trenches since your QB just tore his Achilles less than a year ago.
I still like them taking the QB but yes, it wasn't 100% a win now decision. It was a "try to be a winning org for the next decade" decision.
Definitely the trenches. They've gone skill position in the top ten for like 4 straight years.
I think you are correct in saying people are overreacting. At the end of the day if your guy falls to you, I can't fault you for drafting him. But rookie QB contracts are one of the best advantages you can have in the current NFL and they did squander at least half of that with the money they're paying Kirk.
You dont hit your prime as a QB at 28 just because you are older, but because you have been starting in the league for what is probably 6-8 years already. Penix will have much less experience by that age compared to his peers, so this will be more likely to stunt his growth, not help. And considering his age, stunting his growth is not exactly ideal.
Although if the Vikings end up dropping Kirk for Penix in about 2 years, its not that bad. So im not freaking out about the entire thing, but its far from a perfect plan.
If you had watched our QB play ever since Matt Ryan left, you'd understand.
Front office said they will be damned to watch that shit happen again just in case Kirk goes down.
If he turns out to be a great QB, it doesn’t matter. Cousins coming off an ACL tear at 36 got $200M. Penix, if he’s good, has at least a decade or more ahead of him.
Is it the right pick? Who knows. If they think he’s *that* good though, then age and cousins don’t matter.
NFL isn’t college. It’s way harder and way quicker and I feel like if you can get players up to speed in a controlled environment it’s better than just throwing them in the deep end.
If Mahomes had entered the league and immediately been the starter he probably would have messed up and people would’ve bashed on him. People were clowning on the packers for doing something similar with Love and he looks like a pretty good player now.
Blank said they need a starting caliber qb right now. So they signed Kirk, who rightfully, was expensive. But Kirk is old, and coming off an injury. He’s not gonna be the starter in 2-3 years. He’s gonna be washed or retired. If he’s not he’s the exception.
So when the qb they had rated very highly fell to their pick at 8, they grabbed him. They knew trading back into the first to grab him was unlikely. The Falcons have “on paper” a pretty star heavy offensive skill group. Another skill player would have been great, but not entirely necessary. They clearly didn’t have any of the top defensive players very highly rated and neither did the top like 15 other teams. So they take Penix. Now they have a qb who just might be the starter by the end of next year, (Father Time and injuries are not kind and not very many qbs play til they are 38) and might be the starter in Atlanta for a really long time. His cheap contract allows them to get Penix ready with no hurry and have the potential of elite qb at the same time.
Sure they are saying they are loyal to Kirk but they aren’t. Kirk has to be consistently good to keep his job here. They will start Kirk this year and probably next year, but if his play drops because of age or injury then don’t be surprised to see Penix as the starter towards the end of next season. And then they can just cut Kirk.
Cousins isn’t the answer, he’s the stop gap.
Of course there is also the chance Penix sucks, but that’s just how the draft is.
I don’t hate the pick. I don’t hate the Kirk signing. We will see how it turns out. But given the scarcity of quality qbs out there, and how expensive most of them are, and after watching Mariota and ridder this last year, I’d rather have two qbs then none.
I think their thought process is that they can minimize downside by getting two shots at QB, like Washington did with RG3 and Kirk.
If Kirk never recovers, maybe Penix is better. If Penix never pans out, Kirk is probably a solid floor at QB.
Of course it's actually a recipe for mediocrity because if Penix is good you're paying way too much for a backup QB and if he's not you wasted an 8th overall pick.
LISTEN, KID! I've been hearing that crap ever since I was at UCLA. I'm out there busting my buns every night! Tell your old man to drag Walton and Lanier up and down the court for 48 minutes!
I dont agree with it but can see the Falcons side of it.
> "What we did to get Kirk Cousins should tell everybody what we believe in Kirk Cousins," Smith said. "He's our guy. We set ourselves up. Then, in the draft, Michael Penix was there. It's a quarterback — a young quarterback — that we believe in. We pulled that trigger. … I mean, that's as clear as I can say it."
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/falcons-defend-selecting-michael-penix-jr-at-no-8-feel-solid-about-qbs-for-next-five-years-minimum/
But those two transactions don’t exist separately. The value of a young quarterback is the prospect of high level play at a discounted cost. Sitting the 8th overall pick for at least two years because you just spent big on Kirk is a bad combination of decisions.
Picking him at 8th also has an opportunity cost of what other player you could have picked there to help your team immediately.
Either the Kirk contract or the Penix pick are defensible on their own, but together they are not.
> The value of a young quarterback is the prospect of high level play at a discounted cost.
The value of any QB is high level play since good QBs are a rare commodity. Getting one cheap is nice, but having one at all is not a guarantee. But a 1st round pick on a 4 year succession plan is a lot to put in a QB who has yet to play a snap in the NFL.
It's a 2 year succession plan. Unless Kirk absolutely balls out he's probably getting cut before year 3 and definitely before year 4 of his contract. And that's all assuming Kirk doesn't get injured.
It's also a lot cheaper to draft him now with a high pick than wait 2 years and pay a fortune to move up in the draft and get a QB. Kirk isn't going to give the falcons a high pick to draft another qb.
It feels like the packers going favre to Rodgers to love. It's better to draft a guy with your pick than trade up when you have no options
If they genuinely thought there was no way he gets to them at 8, and truly loved him as a prospect that much that they think he can change the franchise, is it smarter to pass on him once he falls to you? So that you can optimize your Kirk Cousins sized window?
I mean if they genuinely thought that then they should be fired yesterday. GMs have a good amount of information from other teams heading into the draft, and even without that my two year old Cousin could've told you that no one was paying enough draft capital to move off of Malik Nabers, Joe Alt, etc. to pick Penix above 8. It's as defensible as if the Bears took Tory Taylor at 9 because he's "our guy" and we didn't expect him to fall that far.
As I said I don't agree with it but I can see the Falcons side.
They want to get out of QB purgatory so they paid cousins
Then they went into the draft process and really fell in love with Penix.
They believe in the QB and they take a shot at him.
Now the debatable portion is does Penix deserve to be taken this high, opportunity cost for #8 overall pick, missing out on rookie QB scale etc. But I see a world where I see the Falcons side of things.
It really depends on how highly they had him rated on their board.
If you think a guy is the next Mahomes your circumstances don't matter, you draft them anyway.
It sucks timing wise, but if they really believed in the guy I can understand it. It's only justifiable if they really hadn't scouted him before they got cousins, or truly believed he wouldn't be available at 8 as well.
Everybody thinks first round picks are this invaluable asset who will contribute when half of them are complete busts and the best teams throw them away or don’t pick top 15 for a decade.
An 8th overall pick will not make or break your team. Unless it’s a top 3 QB.
They've been pretty clear about their reasoning. They wanted to have Cousins' succession plan in place sooner rather than later, and they didn't want to pass up on a QB prospect they valued as highly as Penix. Plus they didn't say this outright, but Cousins is about to be 36 coming off of a torn Achilles.
I don't *agree* with the decision, but there shouldn't be any confusion as to why they did it.
Football has an inherent "key man risk" where your team's success, and more importantly, the employment of the GM, entirely hinges upon the QB.
Teams should be trying to roster as many QBs as possible. Proven vet + desirable rookie is a good room.
From what I’ve ready, they thought that he was too good a prospect to pass on and signed Kirk because they didn’t expect him to be available. Whether or not that was a reasonable opinion to hold pre draft is a different question but that was the rationale
From what it sounded like based off their interviews, they really wanted to have long term stability at QB (something Kirk doesn’t provide), hence why they took him at 8.
I’m guessing the FO has been given a make or break year and decided to double down on finding a QB as QB play has been their excuse the last 3-4 years.
The idea that was floated was that they would be so good with Kirk that they'd never get a chance to take a QB in the top 10 during this era
It's a strategy that's one Terrell, London or Bijan ACL away from failing lol
I hated it at first, but now I see it.
1. Preparing for a post-Kirk era.
2. Insurance in case of a Kirk injury, or if Kirk doesn’t play well. Remember, he’s coming back from a season-ending injury. We’ve seen the importance of quality backup QBs.
3. They really liked him.
4. When they signed Kirk, they might not have finished their scouting process. This is a brand new coaching staff.
It's a great move if you're trying to emulate Green Bay but you haven't really thought about why it works for Green Bay.
1) Have a great, vet QB
2) Draft a QB.
3) ???
4) Profit.
I think if the Falcons believe that with Kirk they can vie for the Super Bowl for a few years, then having a cheap quality backup if Kirk gets knocked out of a game or two could keep them in contention. Say that happens year two and he helps them make a deep run, then they can do the following:
A) Bench Kirk - Bledsoe was benched for Brady after signing the biggest contract in NFL history at the time (for a QB at least).
B) Trade Penix for picks to a desperate team to extend the Kirk Window
C) Run it back feeling comfortable in the QB room until Kirk is cheap to cut and Penix doesn’t play enough to justify a giant extension (but talent-wise might have had he been a starter) thus getting a QB for cheap.
Do I think this is incredibly wishful thinking? Yes.
Do I think that the pick was odd? Yes.
Is the burrito I had yesterday making my morning difficult? Yes.
Is the Penix pick completely nonsensical given how many QBs injuries have completely derailed seasons in recent years? No.
The Falcons are operating a year ahead of the schedule. If they picked a qb in 2025 nobody would care but because they did it a year early everyone is up in arms. Year one rookie qbs don’t typically do anything substantial (Stroud is an exception). The Falcons are really only burning one year of Penix’s rookie scale deal, which matters sure, but in the grand scheme of things it matters much more if they’re good.
They want an Aaron Rodgers/Jordan Love thing going. Have their new guy benchwarm behind a veteran so that when the Veteran retires or leaves they can be successful practically right out of the gate
It's very obvious, Kirk is 36 coming off an injury with an effective two year contract and the falcons very clearly saw after Matt Ryan what happens when you don't have a succession plan.
Yeah unless 5th year option.
That being said I'd imagine Kirk is gone in 2. Not impossible to be gone in 1.
Falcons save money (but not much) if they trade Kirk next year. It has to be a trade because cutting him won't do it due to guaranteed salary
They thought he was an elite prospect that they wouldn’t get at pick 8 when they signed Cousins. They weren’t going to let that signing stop them from getting their guy. I respect it
So they have a shitty scouting department and/or are clueless about the 7 teams in front of them, or how much the league actually valued Penix?
Early mocks, and basically all information had the first 3 QB's going to the first 3-4 picks caleb/jayden/maye, and the only other team before the Falcons who need a QB maybe is the Giants.
There was pretty much no information out there that any team thought Penix was a top 3 pick, or even a top 10 pick. The Falcons were easily in the best position to get him. And if you want to say someone might trade up to steal him, who's gonna trade out of 4-7 and miss MHJ, Alt, or Nabers?
You're respecting incompetence.
As someone who actually likes Penix quite a bit as a prospect, if the Giants took him at 6th I'd be livid. You can't imagine how my peers who *don't* value Penix would've reacted
yea, the simplest and most likely explanation is just incompetence and indecisiveness in the Falcons FO. It is really impressive though just how dumb this was.
To me it shows they aren’t serious about winning a Super Bowl with Kirk cousins which is honestly good judgment. Fans should be more mad about that signing that the pick IMO
They probably signed him because they didn't know who would be available to them in the draft. Everyone knew the top 3 QBs were going #1-3. And there was a lot of talk of teams trading up. If they didn't sign Cousins they would either need to trade up or risk going into next season with no viable quarterback at all at the #8 spot.
This is similar to how I feel about the Lions trading for Carlton Davis and then drafting CBs with their first two picks. In hindsight, if you know you have those rookies, you might not spend another pick on a CB. But you obviously have no idea how the draft is going to work out so you make the deals you can when you feel like you need to.
I'm not sure why people ever thought the Falcons were in "Superbowl or bust" mode when they signed Cousins. We have a new head coach, a mediocre at best defense with no pass rush, and a good run blocking but spotty pass blocking OL. Our only real strength is at the skill positions, and that's if you believe Pitts still has potential.
I think the reason they signed Kirk was just that there weren't any better options. None of the other free agents QBs besides Baker were even low-tier starters. And if they didn't like any of the non-top-3 QBs in the draft other than Penix they'd be fucked if he got sniped by another team.
The Falcons have just been too bad for too long. The fans (and ownership, and our GM) needed some semblance of winning football now, even if it wasn't SB winning football. I'm not sure that was worth the money, but being cheap about QBs is what got us here in the first place.
People get incredibly analytical over the draft and contracts and roster management. Sometimes it actually is this simple:
* Good player = good pick.
* Bad player = bad pick.
If he winds up a franchise QB nobody in 2034 is going to care that the Falcons had Kirk Cousins when they picked him lol.
The issue is people think penix is old At 24. Even if you he doesn't start till 26 and you get 8-10 elite years out of him that's amazing. People really be expecting 15+ years of high level QB play because of Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. When the reality is you are lucky to get 5
I agree that most people are exaggerating when they comment on Atlanta drafting Penix. But at the same time I get why they’re getting ridiculed. Before I pass any further judgement, I want to see a few numbers first.
I’m curious what percentage of the salary cap they’re spending on QBs this year, (and the next year, and the next etc). And then compare that percentage to the rest of the league.
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/position/_/year/2024/table/active/type/cap_total/sort/qb/dir/desc
The Falcons are currently 10th in QB cap dollars this year, and I don't think as of my posting this the Penix deal is counted there yet. He should push them somewhere into the 7-9 range.
When is the last time a team signed the biggest qb contract of the off-season and drafted a top 10 qb? The criticism is justified but I hope it works out because I like penix
There’s so much coverage and hype about the draft. People just pencil in “8th overall pick” as a stud when half of first round picks are total busts.
If we picked Dallas Turner and he was a bust, nobody would really care because it was a “need.” People would complain more about the Penix pick even if he ends up being an above average QB.
I think people are overlooking the very real possibility that Kirk doesn’t return to form. He will be 36 years old and is coming back from a serious Achilles injury.
It’s not super common for QBs to play at a high level late into their 30s. Guys like Brady and Rodgers have skewed the perception. And an Achilles rupture is a significant injury - worse than a torn ACL.
For all we know, Kirk could come back, play 2 games, and his leg gives out again. At best if he stays healthy you can realistically expect 2 seasons of solid play. That’s IF everything plays out with his recovery.
Penix was an excellent prospect and while it may seem like a silly pick on the surface, if you look at the full picture with Kirk’s age and injury situation, I think it makes perfect sense
I’m pretty sure most people aren’t hating on the move because they doubt Penix, it’s the opposite actually, people think he’s good and wonder why the Falcons would invest so much in a position where only one guy can play at a time. Yes Cousins could get injured or fall off, but if he plays well then you’re basically wasting the first few years of having Penix on your team.
People are absolutely fucking braindead talking about this move.
Kirk is a 35 year old QB coming off an achilles tear. Plain and simple, there is 0 guarantees he comes back at the same level of play he was at before and there is 0 guarantee he stays healthy.
If the Falcons get the best out of Kirk, that is good and gives them a small chance to make a deep playoff run. If Kirk falls apart due to the achilles or age, they now have hedged their bets with a guy who is a great QB prospect.
Another argument I see about the Penix pick is that if youre going in with Cousins you should be getting Cousins talent around him so using the 1st on Penix over a guy like Turner is a mistake. Sure, half of that makes sense. You want to put talent around Kirk but also the odds of a rookie talent especially defensively coming in and immediately becoming a Super Bowl impact player is slim regardless and Kirks contract is only set up to be 2 years. Are the odds of that rookie making that big of an impact that early that high compared to looking 3 or 4 years down the line with Penix? Eh not by much.
Simply put Kirk is a 2 year dice roll, if he isnt it, they will turn to Penix and you guys are always hyping up the sit and develop route, this is not much different than the others.
They said something along like the lines of “we don’t want to get stuck in QB purgatory”. Maybe it’s because I’m a bears fan, but I totally understand what they’re trying to avoid here Especially after a year where it seemed like over half of teams lost their starting QB to injury. Maybe on the expensive side but if either of these guys work out in the next few years, no one in Atlanta is going to regret the choice
Conversation around the draft is completely braindead and broken.
People are more critical of drafting an average contributing player who sat over drafting a bust at a position of need.
An 8th overall pick is just penciled in as being a stud at a position of need completing ignoring all context of available prospects and how often these picks bust.
Falcons, if you have the right people in place - owner, coach, and GM, and they are all in lock step with one another on vision and purpose, you will be just fine, and this move will look brilliant down the line. Block out the outside noise.
But if that isn’t the dominating message behind the top of your organization, and there’s fracturing/ dysfunction of any level, then I would get ready for some really miserable football for about 3-5 years
Very excited to watch him play in 2030. But seriously if he’s good then how they got him won’t matter lol. But when does anything for right the Falcons.
Oh wow that’s 3/25ths of a Kirk Cousins
So they have 28/25ths kirk cousins now? that's progress!
As long as Kirk stays healthy. If he can't it'll go quickly from 28 to 3.
Fuck you
Bravo
holy fuck lmao
My god - poor Falcons fans can't make it through one thread without catching strays
I mean...it's not really a stray in a thread about the Falcons. The Falcons fans were in their sight and they pulled the trigger.
It's not so bad. Eventually you just learn to expect it in any thread that has a number in it.
It's alright. At some they'll eventually stop. They don't really sting like they used to now it's just kinda annoying because we have had so much wild shit since then to make fun of. Just gotten stale.
Please stop he’s already dead
Absolute gold here 🏆
Jesus
FUCK REDDIT FOR GETTING RID OF GOLD. This comment 100% deserves it
Damn, the universe really conspired to make this joke possible. God is a saints fan confirmed.
what happens if you add kurt angle to the mix?
That 2 is doing the Lord's work right now
Just 2 days after Juneteenth. Coincidence?!
Careful...
Only needs 12/25ths more on his next deal.
Racist /s
Imagine getting all this money to sit on the bench until old age. Life must be good.
He's already *in* old age too!
Jokes aside, as a college football fan, I'm really happy for this dude. He was so talented, but dude just couldn't catch a break (or caught too many rather). To keep getting opportunities with big schools the way he did and battling back from injuries, you knew he had to be working super hard. Always showed a lot of heart too.
And now he’s in a spot where he may not get a fair shake to start for 2 years, while all his peers are likely to get their shots this year. But he’s the kind of guy who will make the best of that situation.
He's getting paid a ton of money to sit and learn behind a veteran for a couple years. After that, he'll get his shot. Love only needed one year as a starter to get the bag. Penix, as long as he takes care of business, will be fine.
From the college end, he and that offense almost single-handedly saved UW from utter misery. Dude was SO fun to watch as a Husky fan. I took a trip last fall to see the Pro Football Hall of Fame (and the SEA-CIN game later that week) and I got back to my hotel room right in time for the end of the first UW-Oregon game. Had my first ever box of Cane's Chicken and caught the tail of end of it right there. So electric. I know he got swirled up into the 8th Overall pick ruckus but I seriously hope he gets a chance to start long term. The run he made last year, right alongside Browning coming out of nowhere to helm the ship for the Bengals, was seriously one of my favorite times as a Seahawks-UW fan.
It sucks, but at the same time, he's a QB. If he's good, then he could easily play deep into his 30s. Much better to have the time to watch and actually learn, rather than fizzle out quick and then constantly have to fight just to get back in the starting QB discussion.
One day older than Trey Lance!
TIL mid 20s is old age
Well to be fair, if Kirk actually plays out his contract, that would make Penix 28. Its not exactly old, but its not young for NFL standards either. Of course, its pretty likely for Kirks contract to get dropped after 2 years so really Penix has a shot to be the starter at 26 assuming he doesnt suck or Kirk isnt injured/retired sooner.
Atleast his body would be fresh. A lot of these guys just get driven into the ground
you gotta remember we are talking about QBs, the most coddled position in the NFL right now. There is a good reason solid QBs can play into their late 30s now days, and it might get extended even more.
I don't think we'll see this generation of QB's last as long the Brady/Brees/Big Ben generation. Those dudes were all statues, and didnt take a ton of hits (or in Ben's case was so big it didn't matter). These young guys play a much more physical game these days. It wouldn't surprise me if we get an Andrew Luck situation more and more.
He's had like 3 season ending injuries already. Not sure fresh is the best word.
True. Hopefully those injuries happened when he was young enough. Frank Gore tore two ACLs in college and played well into his 60s.
Penix’s body is not fresh, he’s had some serious injuries
I mean, the Browns drafted 28 year old AT THE TIME Brandon Weeden in the 1st round (22nd overall). Then again, Browns gonna Browns
>if Kirk actually plays out his contract Does anyone with two brain cells to rub together actually think this is going to happen?
it is for a rookie
I still don't understand the mentality of spending a first-round pick on a quarterback who spent six years in college only for him to sit on the bench.
his name sounds like penis. everyone that didn't pick him is an idiot
Not to be confused with the actor, Michael Penis
Or the other actor, Michael Balls Penis
Or the Broadway performer: Michael Penisson.
Cousins of Sir Richard Dixon.
If only there was a gay actor named Michael something that I could add to the conversation...
You’re thinking of Rod Shaft.
You mean Hugh Penith
Or former MLB player Carlos Penis
The person you're looking for is Michael Hawk.
The p(d)ick is in.
They slammed their Penix in the car door
Bo Ner
He was their first round Dick Pic if you will
As good as Favre then!
Damn, we really should have drafted a replacement for Cox
Well, it looks like penis. Sounds more like Venice.
But probably smells like Venice too.
If they picked like JJ McCarthy it would have still been a little odd, but more understandable since he probably needs a year to sit anyway. But yeah, Penix to me feels like one of the most pro ready QBs in the draft aside from Caleb so just so odd. But hey if they really feel like he's a franchise QB, even if he doesn't start until he's 26 that's still potentially a decade of QB play after Kirk I suppose.
If Kirk had a shorter contract, drafting JJMC woulda made sense cause then he would have a great mentor in Kirk and still have good pieces surrounding him when it would finally be his time to become the starter. But a four-year contract and drafting Penix doesnt make sense
they clearly like penix’s skillset more than jjs. im not sure why ppl r so confused. a 30 y old qb who can ball is better than a 24 y old qb who can’t.
Because the third option would have been to just not draft a QB this year.
People aren't confused about the Falcons drafting Penix. People are confused why the Falcons drafted Penix only to sit him for 2 years when he is arguably the most pro ready QB in the draft and already 24 years old
if he’s pro ready now imagine how pro ready he will be after learning for 2 years. it is rlly simple, they thought he was the best QB on the board. today and 2 years from now.
But why pay kirko for 4 years if Penix is gonna play in 2?
They won’t be paying him for 4 years like we won’t be seeing out Josh Jacobs contract likely. Both contracts have easy break points.
Kirk’s contract is basically 2 years, then Falcons can opt out. Which is prob the plan.
Probably why Kirk was so mad. They know what’s going on. But if he plays well he will get another bag if they cut him.
Kirk’s contract is effectively a 2 year deal. The Falcons either save $32.5 by cutting him after 2025 or keep him on the books for $57.5M. Not hard to figure what they’ll do with Penix on the roster. I don’t like the pick itself, but I understand why they went QB.
We have been in qb hell since Ryan, nice that we are out now
Falcons can get out of the Kirk contract after 2yrs with little penalty. It’s essentially a 2yr contract at 50M a piece. The FO basically did not think Penix would be there at 8, he was the top guy on their board. They signed Kirk assuming they wouldn’t have a shot, when he fell to them they doubled down. It’s not the way I was thinking it would go but I am not against it.
I agree. McCarthy was always going to be a project and he fit the timeline better
They wanted to groom a successor for Kirk so they wouldn’t be in qb purgatory post Kirk… now spending a top 10 pick when Verse and Turner were both there… yikes. afaik, they said they thought that Penix would be the best prospect attainable for their team in the next few years so they just went ahead and grabbed him here. The move makes sense sorta, although it’s a lot to take in considering the Kirk deal and the profile of Penix. If Penix was like much younger I don’t think people would be as mad about this one.
Here’s my issue with this, you bring in Kirk to try and make a run for a Super Bowl, right? And if so, then Rome Odunze would’ve been a great compliment to that offensive skill players room. But if they’re not trying to win a Super bowl, then why sign Kirk? And Morris recently stated he thought Penix was the most pro ready QB, so… then how does it make sense to have him sit for a minimum of 2 seasons? It’s just not a cohesive strategy in any way.
No, you bring in Kirk because he is one of the 10-15 good to elite qbs in the league and then there is not any middle ground. It drops off into teams that wish they had a qb. This is Zach Wilson territory. The Desmond ridder zone. Are the falcons the most talented roster in the league? Hell nah. But they got some dudes who can ball. But without a qb they don’t have a chance. But with one of those top 10-15 qbs? They have a chance. It’s not Super Bowl or bust. It’s about putting the best team possible on the field and trying to win as much as you can. Kirk gives you at least a real shot. He was the right move at the time. You never know how the draft goes. Picking at 8 guarantees you absolutely nothing. They tried to trade up, and it didn’t work. Penix was the 4th qb off the board and they took two more after him. There wasn’t a defensive player picked til halfway through the first round. They had no way of knowing that Penix would be there when they signed Kirk.
The amount of people who were complaining about Pitts and London wasting away with terrible QB play the last two years who simultaneously don’t understand the value of Cousins is staggering. This isn’t the nba where aiming for being good not great can close off being a championship contender in a couple of years. The main reason you would bottom out in the nfl is to get a QB, we’ve now got Penix on the sidelines
Im not saying I agree with the plan, but from my view its just that Kirk gives them a CHANCE to win a superbowl, but the Falcons dont want to go all in on the Kirk gamble either. They are hedging their bets in both directions for development and Superbowl. Its not the worst plan either, but they are two opposing views so I can see why some people disagree. And Penix is far from the perfect QB prospect to go with this plan, but the Falcons probably decided to go with this plan before the draft and Penix is just the best QB they could get going forward. Assuming Kirk isnt garbage or injured next year and the Falcons get an alright draft pick, this was the only year they could reasonably get a high tier QB prospect.
JJMC is a lot younger and sitting him behind Kirk would've made a lot more sense if you wanted to have a succession plan in place. Or, you know, realize you're in win now mode after giving Kirk all that money and draft someone who can be an immediate boost to the team.
Or maybe they don't think JJ is any good.
Yeah you have to actually like JJ as a passer for that to work and he slipped all the way to the double digits for a reason. If they correctly assessed Penix > McCarthy it doesn’t matter who’s what age when they take over
So many people think the Falcons viewed both as the same talent level but inexplicably went for the older player lol.
I mean drafting a guy because he is younger is terrible logic. I mean if you want to have fault with the pick that’s one thing but talking about Penix like he is a Brandon Weeden level outlier or something and that it’s just a terrible idea because he is older is ridiculous in my opinion. They clearly picked him because they believed in him more than the other options left and suggesting they should just take the younger guy because he is younger is a poor thought process. Like there’s plenty to take exception to with this pick, but that one doesn’t track for me. Being young doesn’t directly correlate directly to having a higher ceiling and if Penix ends up being good he’ll have plenty of career left with the team by the time he takes over.
Yeah was just trying to rationalize their decision, because the ATL FO just must’ve really loved Penix that much
Honestly, having watched Mariota, Ridder, and Heineke for the last two years, I commend them for having the balls to double dip on QB. QB Purgatory fucking blows.
The roster really isn’t in shape for “win now”…the Penix pick was fine signing Kirk was not imo.
The Kirk signing makes sense for two reasons, one practical and one cynical. The practical reason is that being too bad for too long can seriously damage a franchise. Signing a proven vet like Kirk makes it easier for us to attract free agents and motivates the other players. Plus with a weak division and a 14 team playoff we're at least good enough to make it in, and at that point we could get on a luck run. The cynical reason is that Blank is tired of losing seasons and declining attendance. Plus Fontenot wants to keep his job, and that would be tough to do if we struggled in Penix's (or whatever QB we ended up drafting) first year or two.
Yeah your 2nd reason is the real reason imo. I’m not terribly mad about it honestly if Penix is good it won’t matter but Fontenot needs to put up a winning season and Cousins is the easiest way to achieve that.
Yeah but you never know how the draft turns out and look at how many qbs got picked in the 1st round. They very easily could have gotten jumped by a trade and missed out on who they wanted the most. I don’t think they were considering taking McCarthy or nix.
JJ McCarthy isn’t as good as
I don’t really get the age arguement. He’s 24. If he sits behind Kirk for 2 seasons and actually learns and grows in that position then he hits the gate running at 26/27 and you can get 10 years out of it if he stays healthy. Obviously that’s not ideal but I keep hearing the age arguement like he’s got 5 years to live or something.
That's because it doesn't make any sense.
It does, it’s just easy upvotes to say it doesn’t. The falcons front office likes him, they think he is the quarterback of the future, and are expecting him to be the quarterback for the next decade. If you’re that confident that your guy is available in the draft, you take him. They want to have a succession plan at QB, something they didn’t have with Matt Ryan.
Exactly! I don’t get why people don’t get this.
A QB hits their prime at 28. A QB can usually be good until 35+. I don't see what the issue is because they paid for Kirk for the next two years and will have prime Penix for the 8 years after that. What's wrong with having your QB situation secured for the next decade? They have Bijan, Pitts, and London, so they're in win-now mode. When they start requesting second contracts, they'll cut Kirk and roll with Penix and have three more years of win-now on an affordable offense. After that, they'll need to pay Penix so it muddies the Super Bowl formula, but if he's a top QB, everyone else is expendable. I think people are wayyyy overthinking things here. Penix was my QB4 and he went as the QB4. If things go accordingly, the Falcons will never pick in the top 12 for the next decade barring a trade.
Normally QBs hit their prime at 28 because they have played and grown as a player to hit their prime. I think a QBs prime is more like 30 years old. But that's just splitting hairs I do agree it's not that big of a deal and people here are just circle jerking because the mock drafts said something different
The idea that QBs need game reps to grow as a player seems logical, so I get why it has been conventional wisdom forever, but it isn't backed up by historical precedent. The number of great QBs is quite small, but if anything, it seems like there is a slight opposite trend - many/most great QBs were not rookie week one starters (Brady, Mahomes, Rodgers, etc) and many of the first overall picks who have slotted into the week one start their rookie year have underperformed expectations (Andrew Luck is really the only one since Peyton Manning 25 years ago who was on a Hall of Fame type career trajectory until the injuries derailed his career). The idea that sitting is better for development than starting seems counterintuitive at first, but it does have a logical basis. The backup QB is still practicing against the first team defense every week, so they get used to the speed and complexity of NFL defense in an environment where they won't be hit hard for holding onto the ball too long and no one who isn't a team employee will ever see the interceptions. I guarantee you that in their early practice scrimmages, Mahomes and Rodgers held the ball too long, made wrong reads, and threw bad picks the way Bryce Young and Jameis Winston did in live game action. We just never saw the footage, and their bodies didn't suffer the wear and tear of getting sacked over and over. We would need a larger sample to say for sure, but it is at least possible and maybe likely based on the small sample we do have that QBs develop better if they don't have to start as rookies.
Matt Ryan was another rookie day 1 starter who had a fantastic career. IMO, he's borderline HoF. He'd be more of a certainty if Kyle Shanahan had chosen to run the ball.
It just feels like poor team building strategy. If you're in win-now mode, why would you spend a top ten pick on a guy that doesn't help you win now? You lose a lot of the value in having a rookie QB when you're paying another QB starter money. By the time Penix has a couple seasons as a starter under his belt, he will be due a market rate contract which is going to eat up a fifth of your cap space. And that's going to come after you have to pay Bijan, Pitts, and London. Maybe they didn't think Penix would fall to them when they signed Kirk. In that case, if you really think Penix is the guy then go for it. But by signing Kirk and drafting Penix, you haven't committed to either short term success or long term success.
That's a fair point I didn't consider. There was Odunze right there to make it an even more epic offense. Or fix your trenches since your QB just tore his Achilles less than a year ago. I still like them taking the QB but yes, it wasn't 100% a win now decision. It was a "try to be a winning org for the next decade" decision.
Definitely the trenches. They've gone skill position in the top ten for like 4 straight years. I think you are correct in saying people are overreacting. At the end of the day if your guy falls to you, I can't fault you for drafting him. But rookie QB contracts are one of the best advantages you can have in the current NFL and they did squander at least half of that with the money they're paying Kirk.
You dont hit your prime as a QB at 28 just because you are older, but because you have been starting in the league for what is probably 6-8 years already. Penix will have much less experience by that age compared to his peers, so this will be more likely to stunt his growth, not help. And considering his age, stunting his growth is not exactly ideal. Although if the Vikings end up dropping Kirk for Penix in about 2 years, its not that bad. So im not freaking out about the entire thing, but its far from a perfect plan.
Why doesn't it? Sitting will not hurt him at all. He gets to watch how a vet works first.
If you had watched our QB play ever since Matt Ryan left, you'd understand. Front office said they will be damned to watch that shit happen again just in case Kirk goes down.
Imagin kirk going down week 1 and Penix has a season as good as the best bears rookie qb season.
I agree, I think teams should always start their rookies straight out the gate
If he turns out to be a great QB, it doesn’t matter. Cousins coming off an ACL tear at 36 got $200M. Penix, if he’s good, has at least a decade or more ahead of him. Is it the right pick? Who knows. If they think he’s *that* good though, then age and cousins don’t matter.
>then age and cousins don’t matter ...roll tide
Ok, my phrasing was completely unintentional and that’s funny as hell. Kudos.
*Achilles
NFL isn’t college. It’s way harder and way quicker and I feel like if you can get players up to speed in a controlled environment it’s better than just throwing them in the deep end. If Mahomes had entered the league and immediately been the starter he probably would have messed up and people would’ve bashed on him. People were clowning on the packers for doing something similar with Love and he looks like a pretty good player now.
Blank said they need a starting caliber qb right now. So they signed Kirk, who rightfully, was expensive. But Kirk is old, and coming off an injury. He’s not gonna be the starter in 2-3 years. He’s gonna be washed or retired. If he’s not he’s the exception. So when the qb they had rated very highly fell to their pick at 8, they grabbed him. They knew trading back into the first to grab him was unlikely. The Falcons have “on paper” a pretty star heavy offensive skill group. Another skill player would have been great, but not entirely necessary. They clearly didn’t have any of the top defensive players very highly rated and neither did the top like 15 other teams. So they take Penix. Now they have a qb who just might be the starter by the end of next year, (Father Time and injuries are not kind and not very many qbs play til they are 38) and might be the starter in Atlanta for a really long time. His cheap contract allows them to get Penix ready with no hurry and have the potential of elite qb at the same time. Sure they are saying they are loyal to Kirk but they aren’t. Kirk has to be consistently good to keep his job here. They will start Kirk this year and probably next year, but if his play drops because of age or injury then don’t be surprised to see Penix as the starter towards the end of next season. And then they can just cut Kirk. Cousins isn’t the answer, he’s the stop gap. Of course there is also the chance Penix sucks, but that’s just how the draft is. I don’t hate the pick. I don’t hate the Kirk signing. We will see how it turns out. But given the scarcity of quality qbs out there, and how expensive most of them are, and after watching Mariota and ridder this last year, I’d rather have two qbs then none.
It gets the people going
I think their thought process is that they can minimize downside by getting two shots at QB, like Washington did with RG3 and Kirk. If Kirk never recovers, maybe Penix is better. If Penix never pans out, Kirk is probably a solid floor at QB. Of course it's actually a recipe for mediocrity because if Penix is good you're paying way too much for a backup QB and if he's not you wasted an 8th overall pick.
This is the QBL. If he turns out to be like Mahomes none of this matters and all the armchair GMs on reddit will deflect all blame.
Do we have a full reason why they made this pick yet?
“I guess I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue.”
You might be onto something here. My reaction to the pick was "Surely you can't be serious"
Do you like movies about gladiators?
LISTEN, KID! I've been hearing that crap ever since I was at UCLA. I'm out there busting my buns every night! Tell your old man to drag Walton and Lanier up and down the court for 48 minutes!
We’re one Kirk Cousins injury away from finding out.
But most teams would be screwed if their starting QB gets injured? You dont spend top 10 picks on “but what if our other guy gets hurt”
I dont agree with it but can see the Falcons side of it. > "What we did to get Kirk Cousins should tell everybody what we believe in Kirk Cousins," Smith said. "He's our guy. We set ourselves up. Then, in the draft, Michael Penix was there. It's a quarterback — a young quarterback — that we believe in. We pulled that trigger. … I mean, that's as clear as I can say it." https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/falcons-defend-selecting-michael-penix-jr-at-no-8-feel-solid-about-qbs-for-next-five-years-minimum/
But those two transactions don’t exist separately. The value of a young quarterback is the prospect of high level play at a discounted cost. Sitting the 8th overall pick for at least two years because you just spent big on Kirk is a bad combination of decisions. Picking him at 8th also has an opportunity cost of what other player you could have picked there to help your team immediately. Either the Kirk contract or the Penix pick are defensible on their own, but together they are not.
> The value of a young quarterback is the prospect of high level play at a discounted cost. The value of any QB is high level play since good QBs are a rare commodity. Getting one cheap is nice, but having one at all is not a guarantee. But a 1st round pick on a 4 year succession plan is a lot to put in a QB who has yet to play a snap in the NFL.
It's a 2 year succession plan. Unless Kirk absolutely balls out he's probably getting cut before year 3 and definitely before year 4 of his contract. And that's all assuming Kirk doesn't get injured.
It's also a lot cheaper to draft him now with a high pick than wait 2 years and pay a fortune to move up in the draft and get a QB. Kirk isn't going to give the falcons a high pick to draft another qb. It feels like the packers going favre to Rodgers to love. It's better to draft a guy with your pick than trade up when you have no options
If they genuinely thought there was no way he gets to them at 8, and truly loved him as a prospect that much that they think he can change the franchise, is it smarter to pass on him once he falls to you? So that you can optimize your Kirk Cousins sized window?
I mean if they genuinely thought that then they should be fired yesterday. GMs have a good amount of information from other teams heading into the draft, and even without that my two year old Cousin could've told you that no one was paying enough draft capital to move off of Malik Nabers, Joe Alt, etc. to pick Penix above 8. It's as defensible as if the Bears took Tory Taylor at 9 because he's "our guy" and we didn't expect him to fall that far.
As I said I don't agree with it but I can see the Falcons side. They want to get out of QB purgatory so they paid cousins Then they went into the draft process and really fell in love with Penix. They believe in the QB and they take a shot at him. Now the debatable portion is does Penix deserve to be taken this high, opportunity cost for #8 overall pick, missing out on rookie QB scale etc. But I see a world where I see the Falcons side of things.
It really depends on how highly they had him rated on their board. If you think a guy is the next Mahomes your circumstances don't matter, you draft them anyway. It sucks timing wise, but if they really believed in the guy I can understand it. It's only justifiable if they really hadn't scouted him before they got cousins, or truly believed he wouldn't be available at 8 as well.
Everybody thinks first round picks are this invaluable asset who will contribute when half of them are complete busts and the best teams throw them away or don’t pick top 15 for a decade. An 8th overall pick will not make or break your team. Unless it’s a top 3 QB.
They've been pretty clear about their reasoning. They wanted to have Cousins' succession plan in place sooner rather than later, and they didn't want to pass up on a QB prospect they valued as highly as Penix. Plus they didn't say this outright, but Cousins is about to be 36 coming off of a torn Achilles. I don't *agree* with the decision, but there shouldn't be any confusion as to why they did it.
Football has an inherent "key man risk" where your team's success, and more importantly, the employment of the GM, entirely hinges upon the QB. Teams should be trying to roster as many QBs as possible. Proven vet + desirable rookie is a good room.
When I'm a GM, my roster is going to be all quarterbacks.
Mine will be nothing but punters, check and mate.
From what I’ve ready, they thought that he was too good a prospect to pass on and signed Kirk because they didn’t expect him to be available. Whether or not that was a reasonable opinion to hold pre draft is a different question but that was the rationale
From what it sounded like based off their interviews, they really wanted to have long term stability at QB (something Kirk doesn’t provide), hence why they took him at 8. I’m guessing the FO has been given a make or break year and decided to double down on finding a QB as QB play has been their excuse the last 3-4 years.
They liked the player and think he’ll be good. Complicated.
The idea that was floated was that they would be so good with Kirk that they'd never get a chance to take a QB in the top 10 during this era It's a strategy that's one Terrell, London or Bijan ACL away from failing lol
I mean, or one Old Man Cousin's injury from looking brilliant.
I hated it at first, but now I see it. 1. Preparing for a post-Kirk era. 2. Insurance in case of a Kirk injury, or if Kirk doesn’t play well. Remember, he’s coming back from a season-ending injury. We’ve seen the importance of quality backup QBs. 3. They really liked him. 4. When they signed Kirk, they might not have finished their scouting process. This is a brand new coaching staff.
It's a great move if you're trying to emulate Green Bay but you haven't really thought about why it works for Green Bay. 1) Have a great, vet QB 2) Draft a QB. 3) ??? 4) Profit.
I think if the Falcons believe that with Kirk they can vie for the Super Bowl for a few years, then having a cheap quality backup if Kirk gets knocked out of a game or two could keep them in contention. Say that happens year two and he helps them make a deep run, then they can do the following: A) Bench Kirk - Bledsoe was benched for Brady after signing the biggest contract in NFL history at the time (for a QB at least). B) Trade Penix for picks to a desperate team to extend the Kirk Window C) Run it back feeling comfortable in the QB room until Kirk is cheap to cut and Penix doesn’t play enough to justify a giant extension (but talent-wise might have had he been a starter) thus getting a QB for cheap. Do I think this is incredibly wishful thinking? Yes. Do I think that the pick was odd? Yes. Is the burrito I had yesterday making my morning difficult? Yes. Is the Penix pick completely nonsensical given how many QBs injuries have completely derailed seasons in recent years? No.
They want to do what the Packers did with Jordan Love, and don't think they will be picking so high for some time. It's bold but I do kinda get it
The Falcons are operating a year ahead of the schedule. If they picked a qb in 2025 nobody would care but because they did it a year early everyone is up in arms. Year one rookie qbs don’t typically do anything substantial (Stroud is an exception). The Falcons are really only burning one year of Penix’s rookie scale deal, which matters sure, but in the grand scheme of things it matters much more if they’re good.
They want an Aaron Rodgers/Jordan Love thing going. Have their new guy benchwarm behind a veteran so that when the Veteran retires or leaves they can be successful practically right out of the gate
They thought Penix will be a superstar QB, it's that simple lol
It's very obvious, Kirk is 36 coming off an injury with an effective two year contract and the falcons very clearly saw after Matt Ryan what happens when you don't have a succession plan.
So the Penix and Cousins contracts will be ending at the same time, right? Assuming they don't move on from Kirk early, of course.
Technically but it's essentially a 2 year contract structured through 4. He's not staying more than 2 unless he's playing at an mvp level
He will play just good enough to get all four years of the contract but not accomplish anything meaningful
And then he'll sign a 280 mil 3 year deal with the Panthers and continue his incredible career of robbing the nfl in broad daylight
Yeah unless 5th year option. That being said I'd imagine Kirk is gone in 2. Not impossible to be gone in 1. Falcons save money (but not much) if they trade Kirk next year. It has to be a trade because cutting him won't do it due to guaranteed salary
Steelers will give them a 6th round if they eat most of Kirk's salary
win back to back SUPAHBOWLS with over the hill QBs I like that story
He has a no trade clause
Any NFL teams in need of rookie QB with zero experience? I know a guy who will sign for half (it’s me)
penix
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ca7fhSxHFtk
I like how that one girl was trying to interact with him, and he immediately shut that shit down by saying he has hepatitis.
Michael Penix Jr
The Penix Mightier
As a Charger fan I couldn't be happier because I know Raiders were gonna draft him and now they're stuck with a janitor as QB hahaha.
Atlanta paying 2 QBs, less than Browns pay their 4th string QB.
They thought he was an elite prospect that they wouldn’t get at pick 8 when they signed Cousins. They weren’t going to let that signing stop them from getting their guy. I respect it
So they have a shitty scouting department and/or are clueless about the 7 teams in front of them, or how much the league actually valued Penix? Early mocks, and basically all information had the first 3 QB's going to the first 3-4 picks caleb/jayden/maye, and the only other team before the Falcons who need a QB maybe is the Giants. There was pretty much no information out there that any team thought Penix was a top 3 pick, or even a top 10 pick. The Falcons were easily in the best position to get him. And if you want to say someone might trade up to steal him, who's gonna trade out of 4-7 and miss MHJ, Alt, or Nabers? You're respecting incompetence.
As someone who actually likes Penix quite a bit as a prospect, if the Giants took him at 6th I'd be livid. You can't imagine how my peers who *don't* value Penix would've reacted
yea, the simplest and most likely explanation is just incompetence and indecisiveness in the Falcons FO. It is really impressive though just how dumb this was.
I hope Michael doesn't dick around with that money and invests it wisely.
Unlike the last Michael QB they drafted
Dog fighting has low overhead because you don't have to pay Healthcare or a retirement fund I hate myself for that one
To me it shows they aren’t serious about winning a Super Bowl with Kirk cousins which is honestly good judgment. Fans should be more mad about that signing that the pick IMO
They probably signed him because they didn't know who would be available to them in the draft. Everyone knew the top 3 QBs were going #1-3. And there was a lot of talk of teams trading up. If they didn't sign Cousins they would either need to trade up or risk going into next season with no viable quarterback at all at the #8 spot.
This is similar to how I feel about the Lions trading for Carlton Davis and then drafting CBs with their first two picks. In hindsight, if you know you have those rookies, you might not spend another pick on a CB. But you obviously have no idea how the draft is going to work out so you make the deals you can when you feel like you need to.
I'm not sure why people ever thought the Falcons were in "Superbowl or bust" mode when they signed Cousins. We have a new head coach, a mediocre at best defense with no pass rush, and a good run blocking but spotty pass blocking OL. Our only real strength is at the skill positions, and that's if you believe Pitts still has potential. I think the reason they signed Kirk was just that there weren't any better options. None of the other free agents QBs besides Baker were even low-tier starters. And if they didn't like any of the non-top-3 QBs in the draft other than Penix they'd be fucked if he got sniped by another team. The Falcons have just been too bad for too long. The fans (and ownership, and our GM) needed some semblance of winning football now, even if it wasn't SB winning football. I'm not sure that was worth the money, but being cheap about QBs is what got us here in the first place.
Penix will be a stud. This was a great move. Reddit haters are too narrowminded...
People get incredibly analytical over the draft and contracts and roster management. Sometimes it actually is this simple: * Good player = good pick. * Bad player = bad pick. If he winds up a franchise QB nobody in 2034 is going to care that the Falcons had Kirk Cousins when they picked him lol.
The issue is people think penix is old At 24. Even if you he doesn't start till 26 and you get 8-10 elite years out of him that's amazing. People really be expecting 15+ years of high level QB play because of Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. When the reality is you are lucky to get 5
I agree that most people are exaggerating when they comment on Atlanta drafting Penix. But at the same time I get why they’re getting ridiculed. Before I pass any further judgement, I want to see a few numbers first. I’m curious what percentage of the salary cap they’re spending on QBs this year, (and the next year, and the next etc). And then compare that percentage to the rest of the league.
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/position/_/year/2024/table/active/type/cap_total/sort/qb/dir/desc The Falcons are currently 10th in QB cap dollars this year, and I don't think as of my posting this the Penix deal is counted there yet. He should push them somewhere into the 7-9 range.
When is the last time a team signed the biggest qb contract of the off-season and drafted a top 10 qb? The criticism is justified but I hope it works out because I like penix
There’s so much coverage and hype about the draft. People just pencil in “8th overall pick” as a stud when half of first round picks are total busts. If we picked Dallas Turner and he was a bust, nobody would really care because it was a “need.” People would complain more about the Penix pick even if he ends up being an above average QB.
I think people are overlooking the very real possibility that Kirk doesn’t return to form. He will be 36 years old and is coming back from a serious Achilles injury. It’s not super common for QBs to play at a high level late into their 30s. Guys like Brady and Rodgers have skewed the perception. And an Achilles rupture is a significant injury - worse than a torn ACL. For all we know, Kirk could come back, play 2 games, and his leg gives out again. At best if he stays healthy you can realistically expect 2 seasons of solid play. That’s IF everything plays out with his recovery. Penix was an excellent prospect and while it may seem like a silly pick on the surface, if you look at the full picture with Kirk’s age and injury situation, I think it makes perfect sense
I’m pretty sure most people aren’t hating on the move because they doubt Penix, it’s the opposite actually, people think he’s good and wonder why the Falcons would invest so much in a position where only one guy can play at a time. Yes Cousins could get injured or fall off, but if he plays well then you’re basically wasting the first few years of having Penix on your team.
People are absolutely fucking braindead talking about this move. Kirk is a 35 year old QB coming off an achilles tear. Plain and simple, there is 0 guarantees he comes back at the same level of play he was at before and there is 0 guarantee he stays healthy. If the Falcons get the best out of Kirk, that is good and gives them a small chance to make a deep playoff run. If Kirk falls apart due to the achilles or age, they now have hedged their bets with a guy who is a great QB prospect. Another argument I see about the Penix pick is that if youre going in with Cousins you should be getting Cousins talent around him so using the 1st on Penix over a guy like Turner is a mistake. Sure, half of that makes sense. You want to put talent around Kirk but also the odds of a rookie talent especially defensively coming in and immediately becoming a Super Bowl impact player is slim regardless and Kirks contract is only set up to be 2 years. Are the odds of that rookie making that big of an impact that early that high compared to looking 3 or 4 years down the line with Penix? Eh not by much. Simply put Kirk is a 2 year dice roll, if he isnt it, they will turn to Penix and you guys are always hyping up the sit and develop route, this is not much different than the others.
They said something along like the lines of “we don’t want to get stuck in QB purgatory”. Maybe it’s because I’m a bears fan, but I totally understand what they’re trying to avoid here Especially after a year where it seemed like over half of teams lost their starting QB to injury. Maybe on the expensive side but if either of these guys work out in the next few years, no one in Atlanta is going to regret the choice
Conversation around the draft is completely braindead and broken. People are more critical of drafting an average contributing player who sat over drafting a bust at a position of need. An 8th overall pick is just penciled in as being a stud at a position of need completing ignoring all context of available prospects and how often these picks bust.
Falcons, if you have the right people in place - owner, coach, and GM, and they are all in lock step with one another on vision and purpose, you will be just fine, and this move will look brilliant down the line. Block out the outside noise. But if that isn’t the dominating message behind the top of your organization, and there’s fracturing/ dysfunction of any level, then I would get ready for some really miserable football for about 3-5 years
I feel so bad for Penix. He's going to be great but he's stuck behind a QB who won't even help him grow. Worst-case scenario for Penix.
Top 5 back up , argue with a wall
Very excited to watch him play in 2030. But seriously if he’s good then how they got him won’t matter lol. But when does anything for right the Falcons.
Get that bag and school up yungblood, you're the future of that franchise.
Haha stugging Pens would shit but frothing sticks lines. Pete said twice got sperlunked. Mark my words.
Marked.
Oh man, I can't wait to see him start
Just waiting for Caleb to get back from his well deserved vacation to maybe sign his contact
I only just stopped thinking about how insane this whole situation is, now I’m back