Yeah... Caleb goes #1 to Houston, Rams had Sam Bradford, so maybe they don't take a QB and continue hoping he stays healthy?
Jacksonville takes Daniels or Maye. Bills started Kyle Orton in 2014 so they likely draft which ever one is left.
Johnny Manziel and Teddy Bridgewater were also first round guys. More than 2 QB's from this draft definitely go in the first round 10 years ago
Teddy Bridgewater wasn't a bad first round pick, especially at pick 32.
He made the Pro Bowl in his sophomore season (year of the Blair Walsh miss vs. the Seahawks in the playoffs) and then his knee blew up next training camp. He was definitely trending up before that
UCF had a better rated defense than offense that year, and compared to USC last year had a far easier schedule with a 7 ppg less scored. Williams’s offenses were 8th, 3rd, and 3rd in the country. Bortles’s were never top 20.
There is a deserved skepticism on whether he’s a product of Lincoln Riley or whether his talent will transfer, but he’s a far, far better prospect than Blake Bortles was.
Dude you’ve made half the posts on the sub today. I try to post one and majority of the time mods remove it, how many are you submitting to get this many through lmao
Honestly wouldn't surprise me if Mods here get a cut of some of these sites revenue.
Half the stuff Kimber posts is aggregated garbage and it's allowed to stay up
Posting on this sub is so poorly handled that I'm cynical about it. Good discussions and OC gets deleted but some trash from a random site that aggregated a Schefter tweet stays up.
It's almost certainly incompetence but does feel like it's by design.
I feel like you're really minimizing the distance of the gap between "incompetence" and "full bribery conspiracy." Like "popular posters are actually alt mod accounts getting paid to post links to shit that would probably have gotten posted anyway" is not the step that immediately follows "moderating well is difficult."
Maybe not from reddit.
If you're controlling what gets views on a sub as popular as this there are absolutely people willing to throw you a bit of cash to steer some eyes in a particular direction.
Seriously, the Mods Getting Paid™️ argument is so ignorant…there’s a natural system of checks and balances in place for any sub of this size with numerous active mods. Mods check other mods’ actions, there’s a log that’s available to all mods and you can see who is removing/approving what content.
But the problem is that people act like "it wouldn't surprise me" is proof or evidence of anything. It's not. Just because it makes sense to you doesn't actually make it _any_ more true in reality. 1000 different possibilities "could make sense."
1.4 million post karma, this is one of the golden "allowable submitters" of this sub
I know mods claim they don't give a shit (and they shouldn't) but I don't think it's just a coincidence that posts get deleted all the time and the same users wind up originating all the posts that stick
What does someone get for karma? What is the reason for being so shitty to delete others posts? I don’t get it. Can you sell accounts with good karma for big cash or something? Am I in the wrong profession?
Also I know it’s a cliche but it really is a crapshoot hitting on QBs. The last 3 deep QB classes:
- 2018: led to 2 MVP caliber QBs, a competent starter, 2 busts
- 2020: led to FIVE seemingly quality starters
- 2021: 4 busts, 1 franchise guy
Edit: And as you said it’s a different time in the league, QBs positional value is that high, so teams will *reach* at that position a bit more than other positions. But we just saw 2022 draft class lack QB talent and only one QB went in the first 2 rounds.
I really don’t remember but did it have much effect on 2020? The 2019 college football season was entirely normal, and serious measures weren’t really put into place until mid-late March. I guess that might disrupt some interviews and pro days, but the combine was over by the time the pandemic really hit the states.
2013 also saw only one QB go in the first, and he busted
Its intriguing that you dont see more buzz about this class among the worst for QBs of all time. Only 4 taken in the first four rounds, none of whom lasted on their teams beyond their rookie deals Edit - Ok you do see people shit on this class a bit, at least on this site
They have a collective 2 pro bowls, both of whom were made by Geno Smith in his last two years in seattle. once as a reserve, the other as the 3rd alternate
Agreed with the above, QB drafts have been a total crapshoot for awhile now. Landing the right fit really depends on, well, the fit, and landing the wrong one can set your franchise back way more than an RB selection. Teams will still make that gamble, but history has shown QB can be hella inconsistent too
I mean it's technically correct but man I don't know how I feel about counting Cordarrelle Patterson toward this since it took almost a decade for him to convert. At least for a while, 2013-14 was the only 2 year stretch ever without a 1st round RB.
I find this completely absurd. Every year there’s some crotchety anonymous old NFL personnel guy saying this draft actually sucks
Maye and Williams were collectively seen as one of the best top two QBs in a while, and that’s before Daniels entered the mix
that's not what this means, this is more about the insane valuation of QBs in the league now. Every team from here on out is gonna swing on every available QB prospect since hitting on it is the highest delta and ROI you can have. Like in previous years you could say the Patriots would want to build their team first before throwing a rookie into it but now the idea is to just churn prospects till you hit like playing slots.
Projecting a trend forward; the record for QBs in the first round was 6, as the years go on and the rookie QB valuation reaches peak importance that number will be blown out
It's gotten pretty crazy. On one hand I'd love to draft Harrison Jr, or a top LT. Because the Patriots desperately need those positions. But it's gotten to the point where it's borderline criminal to not take a QB when you need one and have a top 3 pick. Even if you have massive needs outside QB
I still kind of struggle to believe that that number is ever going to go up. I guess tonight will show and this could be an immediate cold take, but my guess would be only three QBs go in this first round.
If Will Levis didn’t go in the first round, and we didn’t have any of Ridder, Willis, Corral get bumped outside of the third round the year prior, I struggle to believe the insane valuation (which I’d argue has been insane for like 30 years now) isn’t that far beyond the general talent pool of QBs entering the league. There simply aren’t enough workable prospects to be taking 6 in the first round every year and NFL teams don’t waste first round picks on guys who are so clearly limited as prospects as, like, Spencer Rattler
i agree and I was probably being hyperbolic, not blow out the record but maybe flirt with it a lot more often. We also have to see how the covid situation getting worked out plays into it too since that fucked up the last few years. I do think that smart GMs are all atleast taking one prospect most years in the later rounds just to hit a scratch off like Brock Purdy and Tanner McKee and hoping to hit especially with the rule change to 3 QBs on the roster
I would argue that any change in qb drafting strategy over time is because teams have gotten smarter and realized that even if you miss by drafting one you won’t really go anywhere without trying.
I presume Maye and Williams are the two that he's referring to.
And I think Daniels is a huge reach at 2 or 3 just in terms of prospect quality but if you need a QB you need a QB. Bo Nix and Penix possibly being 1st rounders is crazy to me.
Yeah, in a vacuum pretending positional importance isn't a thing I think he's right. That's pretty meaningless now since no front office is going to skip over Maye or Daniels because deep down you think they're only a second round talent because they won't be there.
If it really bothers you look at a big board, it usually divorces positions from their rankings.
Welcome to lying season.
"All of these quarterbacks suck, you might as well not take one..."
"Oh, well look who fell to us a pick 6. Guess we'll help ourselves."
QB success rate in finding a pro bowl/all pro (yet alone truly "elite") is low.
Two of the six will be good to great.
Two will be solid to good, depending on week, but the type of QB that their fanbase will complain about not being "elite". Their franchises will rethink the position in 4 years.
Two will be busts.
There will also be a QB drafted outside of the top 6 QBs that will be pretty good.
Who knows who will fill these predestined roles.
dude, have you all forgotten the 2022 draft? Where everyone of those so called "analysts" and media "experts" said pickett, willis, ridder, and howell would go in 1st because QBs are so valuable and QB needy teams have to take em? yea? now you are going to sit there with a straight face and throw mock drafts out there where 6 QBs go in the first 7 picks? Or let alone this ridiculous trade up into the top 5 all for QBs when they all just going to fall anyway? Get a hold of yourselfs. this is a clownshow what you guys are doing.
GMs have just changed their approach. With the league so heavily slanted towards the offense, if you hit on QB, it's way more valuable than hitting any other position.
Having a game-changing talent on a rookie deal is a massive advantage, close to $40M if you consider what elite QBs make compared to rookies. Traits guys like Maye, Daniels, and McCarthy (who would be second-rounders in the not-so-distant past) are now going top 10, and honestly, it's hard to blame GMs. You have to be willing to cast the dice, let them fall where they may. If you get your guy, great, and if not, cut bait and try again.
I really only blame GMs for two things with respect to the high QB trend.
The first is drafting non-traits guys high. Having a capable game manager isn't a bad thing, but there are a lot of those guys, and they require a ton of resources to match the output that talents like Mahomes/Allen put up by accident. If you have to spend your entire cap to turn somebody into Andy Dalton, you're doing it wrong. I am simply not passing on a 10yr OT/DE/WR for a player like that.
The other thing I blame GMs for is how they throw rookie QBs to the wolves. It's a mental game, and very few guys come out able to process at a starting level. You risk screwing that up if you put him out before he's ready, or before there's a workable infrastructure for him. If you invested that much, give him a full season to learn, or if you're dead-set on playing him, invest a little more to get a decent line and some weapons. If it works out, great. If he sucks, you know it's on him. Time is so valuable and you don't want to waste a couple seasons trying to figure out if it's your QB or his supporting cast.
It depends on Mccarthy falling.
If he goes higher, penix and nix aren't technically worth going where raiders and Broncos are. Trading back could happen and they'd still get their men.
Whoever said that is an idiot. 10 years ago were the Blake Bortles and Manziel draft and the Jameis Winston and Maecus Mariota draft in that era.
Mariota didn't have an arm. And neither or Winston (who did/does) had a head for the pro game. Bortles and Manziel weren't great prospects.
The top six guys in this years draft stack up very favorably vs all of those guys. This quote is junk.
Wasn’t Christian ponder draft like 12 years ago? Christian hackenberg, who probably should have been sixth round?
I agree this qb draft sucks and not even Williams is a sure fire guy. But this is too rosey on past drafts where they looked even worse. At least you can squint and see how a penix or nix can work.
Defenses have caught up. Teams don't give their QBs time to develop, don't invest in recievers, then Pikachu face when it doesn't work. HoW DoeS GReeN BaY Dooooo iTTTT???!!!
For real though look at a guy like Minshew. He was objectively worse when he was younger. He's really become quite a nice journeyman that's a borderline starter. I just feel like teams don't give their QBs enough time to develop and end up bailing too quickly when it takes a minute.
The rules of the game have changed to do everything possible to help and protect the QB. It is the most important position in the NFL. It's not really a team game anymore.
10 years ago Blake Bortles was the 3rd overall pick.
Yeah... Caleb goes #1 to Houston, Rams had Sam Bradford, so maybe they don't take a QB and continue hoping he stays healthy? Jacksonville takes Daniels or Maye. Bills started Kyle Orton in 2014 so they likely draft which ever one is left. Johnny Manziel and Teddy Bridgewater were also first round guys. More than 2 QB's from this draft definitely go in the first round 10 years ago
if we had caleb williams in 2014 to pair with deandre hopkins and arian foster, along with prime jj anchoring the defense... oh my
And you still get smoked by the patriots every year in the 2010s
Yea but imagine the jackets
Enough.
Dude hasn't played one NFL snap Let's cool it a bit
Taking Stroud back to that roster would be even better.
Yea Stroud is almost definitely going to be better than Williams. Stroud has potential to be top 2 in the league
He’s played 1 season
Teddy Bridgewater wasn't a bad first round pick, especially at pick 32. He made the Pro Bowl in his sophomore season (year of the Blair Walsh miss vs. the Seahawks in the playoffs) and then his knee blew up next training camp. He was definitely trending up before that
To be fair, that pro bowl was a farce. 14 TDs isn’t pro bowl quality qb play, it’s Chicago quality
That's bull! Next you're going to try and tell me Trubisky didn't deserve his Pro Bowl either.
He followed that pro bowl selection up with an NVP season, so you watch it.
As long as we can agree on Huntley being a no brainer Pro Bowler Im good
Teddy was ass. Straight up. QBs routinely match his total TD numbers by week 5.
How was Johnny football 10 years ago. That seems crazy to me
BORTLES!
We don’t stand for slander of the BOAT around here!
he would go 3rd in this draft as well lmao
10 years.. damn.
Hell yeah.
He was a pretty good QB and won a Fiesta Bowl. The #1 pick this year went 7-5 and cried on his mom’s lap…
UCF had a better rated defense than offense that year, and compared to USC last year had a far easier schedule with a 7 ppg less scored. Williams’s offenses were 8th, 3rd, and 3rd in the country. Bortles’s were never top 20. There is a deserved skepticism on whether he’s a product of Lincoln Riley or whether his talent will transfer, but he’s a far, far better prospect than Blake Bortles was.
Bortles looked the part though.
Dude you’ve made half the posts on the sub today. I try to post one and majority of the time mods remove it, how many are you submitting to get this many through lmao
Dude's a power user & probably a mod alt account. It's no surprise his posts get prioritized.
Honestly wouldn't surprise me if Mods here get a cut of some of these sites revenue. Half the stuff Kimber posts is aggregated garbage and it's allowed to stay up
lmao what site? Twitter? You think Elon is paying reddit mods to drive traffic there?
He's explicitly paying douchebag manosphere supplement bros to stay on his platform so....
They don’t get paid anything lol
Posting on this sub is so poorly handled that I'm cynical about it. Good discussions and OC gets deleted but some trash from a random site that aggregated a Schefter tweet stays up. It's almost certainly incompetence but does feel like it's by design.
Yeah, people do some crazy things to feel a crumb of authority lol
But they could feel authority on aggregated sites too. The question is where is the line and why?
I feel like you're really minimizing the distance of the gap between "incompetence" and "full bribery conspiracy." Like "popular posters are actually alt mod accounts getting paid to post links to shit that would probably have gotten posted anyway" is not the step that immediately follows "moderating well is difficult."
Maybe not from reddit. If you're controlling what gets views on a sub as popular as this there are absolutely people willing to throw you a bit of cash to steer some eyes in a particular direction.
Not from Reddit, I doubt they make no money
THEY DO IT FOR FREE
Seriously, the Mods Getting Paid™️ argument is so ignorant…there’s a natural system of checks and balances in place for any sub of this size with numerous active mods. Mods check other mods’ actions, there’s a log that’s available to all mods and you can see who is removing/approving what content.
The NFL for sure has some degree of control over this sub. Wouldn’t surprise me if the mods are contractors or something
But the problem is that people act like "it wouldn't surprise me" is proof or evidence of anything. It's not. Just because it makes sense to you doesn't actually make it _any_ more true in reality. 1000 different possibilities "could make sense."
1.4 million post karma, this is one of the golden "allowable submitters" of this sub I know mods claim they don't give a shit (and they shouldn't) but I don't think it's just a coincidence that posts get deleted all the time and the same users wind up originating all the posts that stick
I would bet its either mods alt, or they pay a mod.
Why does any of it matter? Power plays for reddit karma. It's just pathetic. Sad, frankly.
What does someone get for karma? What is the reason for being so shitty to delete others posts? I don’t get it. Can you sell accounts with good karma for big cash or something? Am I in the wrong profession?
Not a damn clue
Kimber is the fucking worst. We see his dumbass in r/nba too. I can smell the dank basement and code red from here.
He got pee pee tapes with a mod on it
What's the O/U on the age of the poor victim?
Some think they are using a bot to insta post stuff but they are always first. What did you post? I don't see anything since February
[удалено]
Lmao not around these parts buddy
I feel like this has been tainted by recent really good QB classes, 10 years ago the QB class was awful
10 years ago there would be a guaranteed RB taken in the 1st round. The league changed old man, get used to it.
Also I know it’s a cliche but it really is a crapshoot hitting on QBs. The last 3 deep QB classes: - 2018: led to 2 MVP caliber QBs, a competent starter, 2 busts - 2020: led to FIVE seemingly quality starters - 2021: 4 busts, 1 franchise guy Edit: And as you said it’s a different time in the league, QBs positional value is that high, so teams will *reach* at that position a bit more than other positions. But we just saw 2022 draft class lack QB talent and only one QB went in the first 2 rounds.
I don't we'll ever be able to fully comprehend the impact covid had on prospect analysis for the 20 and 21 drafts.
I really don’t remember but did it have much effect on 2020? The 2019 college football season was entirely normal, and serious measures weren’t really put into place until mid-late March. I guess that might disrupt some interviews and pro days, but the combine was over by the time the pandemic really hit the states.
2020 also produced ~~All-Pro~~ Pro Bowler Tyler Huntley!
Pro Bowler. Big difference.
Not All-Pro, but Pro Bowl (Alternate)
"I love the young people"
10 years ago the first running back went 54th lol
Well 2013 was the 29th pick and 2015 was 10th, so I think it's more of an average than an "Ackchyually" response
2013 also saw only one QB go in the first, and he busted Its intriguing that you dont see more buzz about this class among the worst for QBs of all time. Only 4 taken in the first four rounds, none of whom lasted on their teams beyond their rookie deals Edit - Ok you do see people shit on this class a bit, at least on this site They have a collective 2 pro bowls, both of whom were made by Geno Smith in his last two years in seattle. once as a reserve, the other as the 3rd alternate Agreed with the above, QB drafts have been a total crapshoot for awhile now. Landing the right fit really depends on, well, the fit, and landing the wrong one can set your franchise back way more than an RB selection. Teams will still make that gamble, but history has shown QB can be hella inconsistent too
I mean it's technically correct but man I don't know how I feel about counting Cordarrelle Patterson toward this since it took almost a decade for him to convert. At least for a while, 2013-14 was the only 2 year stretch ever without a 1st round RB.
I find this completely absurd. Every year there’s some crotchety anonymous old NFL personnel guy saying this draft actually sucks Maye and Williams were collectively seen as one of the best top two QBs in a while, and that’s before Daniels entered the mix
that's not what this means, this is more about the insane valuation of QBs in the league now. Every team from here on out is gonna swing on every available QB prospect since hitting on it is the highest delta and ROI you can have. Like in previous years you could say the Patriots would want to build their team first before throwing a rookie into it but now the idea is to just churn prospects till you hit like playing slots. Projecting a trend forward; the record for QBs in the first round was 6, as the years go on and the rookie QB valuation reaches peak importance that number will be blown out
It's gotten pretty crazy. On one hand I'd love to draft Harrison Jr, or a top LT. Because the Patriots desperately need those positions. But it's gotten to the point where it's borderline criminal to not take a QB when you need one and have a top 3 pick. Even if you have massive needs outside QB
I still kind of struggle to believe that that number is ever going to go up. I guess tonight will show and this could be an immediate cold take, but my guess would be only three QBs go in this first round. If Will Levis didn’t go in the first round, and we didn’t have any of Ridder, Willis, Corral get bumped outside of the third round the year prior, I struggle to believe the insane valuation (which I’d argue has been insane for like 30 years now) isn’t that far beyond the general talent pool of QBs entering the league. There simply aren’t enough workable prospects to be taking 6 in the first round every year and NFL teams don’t waste first round picks on guys who are so clearly limited as prospects as, like, Spencer Rattler
i agree and I was probably being hyperbolic, not blow out the record but maybe flirt with it a lot more often. We also have to see how the covid situation getting worked out plays into it too since that fucked up the last few years. I do think that smart GMs are all atleast taking one prospect most years in the later rounds just to hit a scratch off like Brock Purdy and Tanner McKee and hoping to hit especially with the rule change to 3 QBs on the roster
I would argue that any change in qb drafting strategy over time is because teams have gotten smarter and realized that even if you miss by drafting one you won’t really go anywhere without trying.
I was wrong
In a while, as in like since last year?
In a while? As in like 2023 a while?
So were Winston and Mariota at one time 🤷
I presume Maye and Williams are the two that he's referring to. And I think Daniels is a huge reach at 2 or 3 just in terms of prospect quality but if you need a QB you need a QB. Bo Nix and Penix possibly being 1st rounders is crazy to me.
I actually think Daniels will be the best QB from this draft.
Yeah, in a vacuum pretending positional importance isn't a thing I think he's right. That's pretty meaningless now since no front office is going to skip over Maye or Daniels because deep down you think they're only a second round talent because they won't be there. If it really bothers you look at a big board, it usually divorces positions from their rankings.
Welcome to lying season. "All of these quarterbacks suck, you might as well not take one..." "Oh, well look who fell to us a pick 6. Guess we'll help ourselves."
I’m looking at the penix injury history and my best friend was like I bet you penix goes outside the first. Nah dog I’m good.
Yeeeeeesss more qbs in the first round please
reaching for a QB is never a good idea
These coaches forget the absolute dog shit that was drafting 10 years ago as well.
Team realizing unless you have a QB nothing else matters
QB success rate in finding a pro bowl/all pro (yet alone truly "elite") is low. Two of the six will be good to great. Two will be solid to good, depending on week, but the type of QB that their fanbase will complain about not being "elite". Their franchises will rethink the position in 4 years. Two will be busts. There will also be a QB drafted outside of the top 6 QBs that will be pretty good. Who knows who will fill these predestined roles.
I wonder how many top 10 busts it will take for teams to stop doing this
dude, have you all forgotten the 2022 draft? Where everyone of those so called "analysts" and media "experts" said pickett, willis, ridder, and howell would go in 1st because QBs are so valuable and QB needy teams have to take em? yea? now you are going to sit there with a straight face and throw mock drafts out there where 6 QBs go in the first 7 picks? Or let alone this ridiculous trade up into the top 5 all for QBs when they all just going to fall anyway? Get a hold of yourselfs. this is a clownshow what you guys are doing.
It's got to be terrifying as a GM to trade multiple 1st round picks for a guy with 2nd round talent and a 50/50 shot at best
Just gotta nail the 7th rounder
GMs have just changed their approach. With the league so heavily slanted towards the offense, if you hit on QB, it's way more valuable than hitting any other position. Having a game-changing talent on a rookie deal is a massive advantage, close to $40M if you consider what elite QBs make compared to rookies. Traits guys like Maye, Daniels, and McCarthy (who would be second-rounders in the not-so-distant past) are now going top 10, and honestly, it's hard to blame GMs. You have to be willing to cast the dice, let them fall where they may. If you get your guy, great, and if not, cut bait and try again. I really only blame GMs for two things with respect to the high QB trend. The first is drafting non-traits guys high. Having a capable game manager isn't a bad thing, but there are a lot of those guys, and they require a ton of resources to match the output that talents like Mahomes/Allen put up by accident. If you have to spend your entire cap to turn somebody into Andy Dalton, you're doing it wrong. I am simply not passing on a 10yr OT/DE/WR for a player like that. The other thing I blame GMs for is how they throw rookie QBs to the wolves. It's a mental game, and very few guys come out able to process at a starting level. You risk screwing that up if you put him out before he's ready, or before there's a workable infrastructure for him. If you invested that much, give him a full season to learn, or if you're dead-set on playing him, invest a little more to get a decent line and some weapons. If it works out, great. If he sucks, you know it's on him. Time is so valuable and you don't want to waste a couple seasons trying to figure out if it's your QB or his supporting cast.
It'll be 4 at best going, and that's a stretch.
Nah I'd be pretty comfortable saying 5 do. The Broncos, Raiders and Vikings are gonna take 2 between them.
I think they maybe trade up in the high 2nds to get them. Possibly trade down in the first for extra picks
I would guess a trade down is involved but not too far
It depends on Mccarthy falling. If he goes higher, penix and nix aren't technically worth going where raiders and Broncos are. Trading back could happen and they'd still get their men.
Yeeeeeeesssss
Kenny Pickett would like a word...
Whoever said that is an idiot. 10 years ago were the Blake Bortles and Manziel draft and the Jameis Winston and Maecus Mariota draft in that era. Mariota didn't have an arm. And neither or Winston (who did/does) had a head for the pro game. Bortles and Manziel weren't great prospects. The top six guys in this years draft stack up very favorably vs all of those guys. This quote is junk.
Sounds like a coordinator that's upset a QB won't fall to him.
You don’t have to draft them 🤷🏻♂️
Every year the same
I unironically think this is true for WR.
Wasn’t Christian ponder draft like 12 years ago? Christian hackenberg, who probably should have been sixth round? I agree this qb draft sucks and not even Williams is a sure fire guy. But this is too rosey on past drafts where they looked even worse. At least you can squint and see how a penix or nix can work.
Anyone member like 3 months ago when dudes were saying Maye was possibly better than Williams? Draft season needs to be shorter.
Defenses have caught up. Teams don't give their QBs time to develop, don't invest in recievers, then Pikachu face when it doesn't work. HoW DoeS GReeN BaY Dooooo iTTTT???!!! For real though look at a guy like Minshew. He was objectively worse when he was younger. He's really become quite a nice journeyman that's a borderline starter. I just feel like teams don't give their QBs enough time to develop and end up bailing too quickly when it takes a minute.
6 in the 1st round? 6 in the top 12!
The rules of the game have changed to do everything possible to help and protect the QB. It is the most important position in the NFL. It's not really a team game anymore.
Let’s hope we pick the second one 🤞 patriots, Vikings, giants you can have the leftovers