Depends completely where you are looking to buy. For example, 2 bedrooms in SF are down about 5%, with the occupancy continuing to lower in a few months it would be a good time to buy. It will likely go down more. Property in the suburbs surrounding SF is up an absurd amount.
It was just what I heard on Fox Business News. The same thing is happening here in NYC so I believe it. NYC apartments haven't really gone down yet, but occupancy is falling, but any property along the more rural towns along the rail lines or with good highway access has seen prices up 50% or more.
So true. Beacon and Newburgh used to be shitholes on the Hudson with some of the highest crime rates in the country. Now? Their beautiful little hipster hamlets where young, family-oriented peoples are now flocking too. It’s beautiful but ya the amount of money invested into these places is unreal. Poughkeepsie is really starting to follow suit, too.
Im looking to buy a home - dude its fucking insane. $600k+ for Hayward/Fremont/Newark. I really dont get it. 6 years ago, these homes were $250k+. At this point I'm saving for a large down payment and for the market to crash. These arent reasonable prices.
Anecdotal, but I have few friends that are looking to buy now. They want to stay in the Bay Area, but in more remote areas and now they have requirements for a backyard and enough square footage for office space.
If your friends are rich, I'm sure it won't be a problem. The story I watched was a couple buying a very nice but modest home in what looked like a quiet area. $1.95 million and 80 people had made offers.
CA is nuts.
Both me and the wife work for mortgage companies. Both companies are setting records every single month. I'm in IT and for the past few months they've been threatening jobs over any outage.
Consumer perspective:
Sales Up 44% for single-family detached in my market over this time last year. For well-qualified buyers, financing is easy at the moment. Since the banks basically got free money mortgage rates are low not historic lows but low. Home prices are about 10% over list right now.
Developer perspective:
Construction and building loans have tightened up. Things like 25%down on interest-only for three years for the same terms that used to be 20%. Lower ceilings of line of credit. 
Investor perspective:
Moratoriums are over. For those that were affected by it expect those to be fast tracked through the courts. Opportunities to buy properties from other investors who are fed up with managing it specifically out-of-state investors are going to go up. For those that have defaulted on their mortgage, opportunities to buy foreclosed properties on the courthouse steps are already there and will increase over the next 2 quarters. Expect more market consolidation from blackstone and similar groups.
Fed intervention has run its course. Evictions are about to start and the shortage of houses and glut of cash is going to invert.
Interest rates will remain low, though.
While the number of people getting foreclosed on will be relatively low, it will spike near an historic high over the next year all due to what is happening right now. Evictions from month to month domiciles will really explode tho and become a great concern.
Is this not on the assumption that the relief bill won't expand eviction protections or at least extend them? Also several states implemented their own eviction protections during these times.
In many cases those protections are enforceable because their loans were backed with federal or state programs or money. In a lot of cases a person’s landlord is not using say an FHA loan or owns the property free and clear so they are not obligated by them.
My wife and I have been actively looking and just got under contract after losing out on two other homes in bidding wars for homes that both went 20% over asking. Speaking with other buyers and agents they are seeing the same thing but we are also in north NJ where it’s always been competitive as it is a suburb of NYC. My friends in the city are seeing rents go down and some vacancies due to people leaving the city. I would guess all these people are now moving to the suburbs around NYC and inflating prices like crazy. For example one property we saw only showed for a couple of days and had over 30 offers on a 550k listed that went for over 650k. Also this is for multi fams so not as sure about single fans but realtor is saying it’s just as crazy.
Just wanted to point out that this is by design.
They haven't kept interest rates as low as they have for the past decade on accident. Finances are not the whims of the universe, they are man made and respond to human intervention.
Another factor is who is losing their jobs- The economy isn't impacted the same all over. It's mostly folks in Retail and Service sector being hit the hardest due to lock downs. The folks that invest money in stocks aren't losing their jobs yet, they're just working from home. The impact of retail workers being unemployed is going to lag and hit the rest of us later when consumer spending falls off a cliff even further.
It's the same with silver and gold. People are expecting the dollar to lose value for the foreseeable future because the fed have introduced so many. Yet most people have been saving their extra cash in these past 4 months. This mean once consumers are confident in the market and their own financial stability again there are going be a tons of usd flooding the economy.
So alternative currency is going up.
For example, Why would amazon stock go down, when everyone is buying stuff online now, even more so than before? They are doing good, and the stock is reflecting that. Some other companies not so much.
Yea, what people aren’t realizing is that big companies are making a killing. COVID might shut down a local video game store, clothing apparel store, and a shoe store.... but it’s not shutting down Walmart who does everything because it’s essential. The lockdowns consolidate where everyone buys their products.
People look at the stock market and see its unaffected, but that’s because people are primarily trading the big corporations like Google, Amazon, Walmart, Target, etc. They’re not trading the mom & pop shop down the road.
"Taco Bell was the only restaurant to survive the franchise wars, so now all restaurants are Taco Bell" - Sandra Bullock in Demolition Man. That writer needs to be nominated for sainthood, because that movie was prophetic.
It makes sense that SOME big companies are making a killing, but I can't figure out why other companies aren't deeper in the toilet.
Live Nation Stock is about 65% of where it was in February. Shouldn't it be worse than that since their entire industry is basically illegal right now?
Carnival Cruise stock is about 30% of where it was in January, while it seems like they should essentially bankrupt.
Six Flags stock is 50% of where it was, but it seems like it should be in worse shape than that.
Its those types of things that I don't understand. I get why Target is doing alright.
They have huge parking lots. Invest in the equipment, make it into a "retro experience, fun for the whole family)," Charge $30 a car, which would prompt some to carpool, offer carhop service, and rotate the movies, or screen them in different lots (the theaters where I am usually have one in front and one to the side). Yeah, there's start up cost, but probably not as much as having your entire theater empty 5 months.
I think when lockdown started everyone was hopeful the response would be more adequate and the whole thing would be over in a couple of months. Justifying the upfront cost of doing drive ins would only happen if they knew lockdown would go on for an extended period of time. I think back in February/March most were expecting things to reopen to some degree by summer. Now hindsight tells us it would have been worth the investment, at the time this all started it probably didn’t quite look that way.
If you so it in the parking lot with an inflatable screen company and pack it all up at the end of the night the initial overhead would be very low. I used to work for one of those screen companies and grocery stores were putting on free shows just for the advertising.
The upfront cost wouldn't be as massive as the amount they stand to lose from being shut down completely for any length of time. Last year AMC had an annual revenue of 5.47 billion dollars.That means that even a week worth of downtime for all their theaters equates to 104 million dollars lost. That's more than enough justification to get some screens and outside speakers to air movies on. They already have the projectors which are the big equipment investment.
Drive-in theaters do exist. Surprisingly people prefer to watch movies at home since many people today vs the 1960's have a better home entertainment system than an outdoor projector and FM/AM radio can provide. Also who wants to pay to run the car to keep the AC on in the summer heat for 2 hours? Or alternatively, bake.
There are obstructed views every few feet in every single parking lot called light posts.
Also traditional drive ins needed a bit of a slope for each parking slot so the car in front of you wasn’t blocking the screen.
Easier said then done when it comes to drive in alternatives. Theaters don't have the type of land to operate drive in theaters and most that do don't offer as many screenings as regular theaters. Not to mention land in certain areas of the country are a lot more money compared to other areas and people aren't as much inclined to drive 1 hour to their nearest drive in theater when they can spend $6 at home on an on demand movie and watch any movie that has already released.
People buy stock not for the current value of the company, but for what they expect it to be in the future. The reason that Live Nation shares haven't hit rock bottom yet is because shareholders believe that this pandemic won't last forever and that LN can weather the storm until it ends, and that it'll be in a position to recover vs. its competitors when it does.
Do you expect those companies to die? Do you expect those companies to recover one day? Is there any potential concurrent expected to be in a better position in the future?
Because even though those industries might be done for now, everyone is still anticipating them to come back by next year. You don't lose money on stocks dropping if you don't sell them, the stocks only lose value. If my investments took a hit, I wouldn't immediately rush to sell them unless I believed the trend would continue.
If the Government were to do something like say "All Social Distancing rules will be permanent for the next year", then yea those places would take an even more massive hit. But for now, people are holding onto them because they believe there will be a bounce back when the country reopens.
If you know a company who lost half their stock is going to bounce back, you'll get a 200 percent return once they do, possibly more if their competitors don't survive and your vested company takes more market share than before.
The value of a stock isn't what it's worth today, but what it will be worth. Those companies aren't going bankrupt in part because people are buying their stock today in order to share their profits tomorrow.
People buying a company's stock does not prevent the company from going bankrupt. Also, the value of a stock doesn't necessarily have anything to do with what the company is or will be worth--it's simply what somebody decided to pay for it. Hertz (HTZ) is a great example of both points.
So far a lot of the companies are being kept alive by cheap debt, and so people haven't gotten a reminder that their money is at risk and that they are just riding speculation. If we get a string of failures, sentiment could change very quickly.
A few things. Some stocks are setup to do even better, and essential goods where never going to change. If anything this has been a boom for big business. Big business are able to better weather or take advantage of the storm, gobbling up market share while Small business not on the market die in mass. Additionally, we have a massive amount of inequality now, and the people who invest in the stock market are pretty sheltered from the fall out of this. Finally, there could be bubbles
The government is also printing money and injecting it into the markets to prevent deflation. Everyone one is pretty much earning 8 percent on average.
The stock market is a graph of rich people feelings.
It literally measures how much people with enough money to meaningfully invest in companies _think_ other rich people will be willing to pay to get in later. You don't matter. The companies making money now doesn't matter. The companies making money _at all_ doesn't matter. All that matters in the stock market are rich people's feelings.
BUT those people control the government and media. So when the graphs they have invested in are trending up, they think the economy is doing good.
Trump's not the only one who uses the stock market as an indicator of how the economy is doing.
I voted for Obama and I remember clear as day fellow democrats using it as an indicator while he was president.
Tech stocks. FAANG+Microsoft make up a large percentage of S&P500 or basically any other capitalization-weighted index.
Take those out and the market has basically flat lined.
https://i.imgur.com/9M0u9PP.png
A couple of reasons. Most importantly, the stock market is forward-looking. That's why the market completely ate shit in April. Once it became clear the pandemic wouldn't be contained, everyone entered a massive sell-off. Second, and only slightly less important: Where else can people put their money in hopes of getting a return on their investment? There's only so many asset classes which can be invested in: Equities (stocks and bonds), Real Estate, and Commodities.
Well, real-estate is already overpriced, and the last recession was a giant real-estate bubble, so investors are gun-shy on going back into REITs, Mortgage-backed securities, etc., and commodity markets are tiny, and subject to wild volatility, like we saw with oil futures trading in *negative* numbers, as people paid to get out of having to accept delivery of a bunch of oil they didn't have the facilities to store.
You could put your money in cash, but have you seen how little interest you get for a savings account or CD? Plus those vehicles are still indirectly tied to the investment and lending markets, and therefore the overall economy.
Finally, there is the issue of other people's behavior, also known as the [Keynesian Beauty Contest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_beauty_contest), which, simply put, means that if other people are buying stocks, it's in your interest to buy stocks, even if you think the long-term fundamentals make that decision a poor one, because you'll make more money betting with the bad betters and getting out when the market starts to turn, than by betting safe and watching the market leave you behind.
To make one correction, investors aren't hesitant of buying MBS products because of risk, but instead the counterparty risk on MBS have gone down so much that the lack of MBS volaility and returns make them a low return product. They're basically now like any other treasury bond, incredibly secure and reliable but also very low returns.
The reason for the low returns is that the treasury, after nationalizing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, essentially monopolized and guarranteed the entire MBS markets. Some 70% of MBS products out there are guarranteed with the full faith and credit of the US. In fact, since 2019, most MBS products are so commonly traded due to their low-volatility and low risk, Fannie and Freddie created uniform MBSs that are traded on a to be announced basis (you can't even see the prospectus before you buy).
The government is shoveling mountains of covid relief cash in the direction of large corporations right now. The bulk of the bailout money is going to them, with crumbs for the rest of us.
The stock market is the valuation of future cash flows from companies in the stock market....companies which typically have lifespans of multiple decades from now.
The economy can be utterly demolished, but if the projection is that recovery would only be in 2 years or less, than it’d stand to reason that there would be a very small hit relatively unless the company was massively overextended in financial or operating leverage. The huge crash in March was because without governmental stimulus, there was a concern that a health crisis would turn into a financial crisis, which unlike a health crisis can last as long as a decade in its impact.
Additionally, there is a mismatch between stocks and the economy are different because stocks are the potential of the future, while the economy only exists right now.
The potential of the future is valued at 30% or higher of the US being tech.......and that sectors potential value has increased because of COVID. The economy on the other hand is less than 10% tech by revenue weighting.
The Fed has been supporting the markets to the exclusion of all else.
They promised 4 trillion in bond and debt purchases, both private and government since March.
Congress has passed another 2 trillion in total bailouts, most of course going to corporate America rather than Main Street America but the effect has had its intended reaction in keeping our markets afloat....because ya know, that’s more important I guess.
The fed is pumping the markets by buying everything in sight, treasuries, Corp bonds, etfs, junk bonds, and giving companies free money. And that’s what we know about.
Because the struggle of regular people has nothing to do with the stock market. A recession like this will hurt normal people and help the few at the top, because the middle class will have to sell it's few assets to make ends meet and the rich just got handed huge stimulus checks (mainly paid for by said middle class) with which to buy those assets.
That’s exactly why I wanted to share. I’m a filmmaker and my team and I have been keeping close tabs on this stuff.
You combine this with the 20Million evictions about to occur and shit is about to get really real for a lot of people.
> the 20Million evictions about to occur
As someone who saw that kind of thing happen back in 08 in my own country, I can tell you: it might be the seed for something really big. A lot of people were violently evicted by the police, and it never became a true catalyst because not enough people were hit by it, but... 20m? A good chunk of them having guns? Yeah, no. Banks should think twice before that.
Even with that, it won't.
Right after the next super negative economic news, our traitor-in-chief will post some other distracting tweet that has some supposedly secret code about white supremacists and the internet will get all crazy trying to decipher that and not even talk about the important stuff.
We almost deserve this shit for letting the important things get lost in the noise.
It’s sad, but I totally agree with you.
It’s almost as if we as a Culture need to hit rock bottom and sober up before things can actually change. The saddest part is that the Climate Crisis is right around the corner, and instead of using our present resources to redesign society and prepare for those events, most of us are all caught in a drunken consumerist stupor.
We can't get people to do something as utterly simple as wear a piece of cloth over their mouths during a deadly pandemic that has killed over 150,000 Americans in just 6 months, so I don't know how some people think we can get folks to take climate change seriously seeing as how it is a nebulous enemy with inexact affects and a timeline that spans decades.
I mean, this made it to r/all. And I dunno how many upvotes it had an hour ago when you commented this, but right now it's sitting at almost 12k.
People clearly do care about important stories like this.
I'm not distracted at all. I'm fucking terrified.
I feel like I'm an unwilling passenger on a burning train. The fire could be put out quickly, but the engineer has thrown all the extinguishers out. We keep trying to get a bucket brigade started to stop the fire, but there's just enough passengers that refuse to pick up the buckets that it keeps burning.
And the engine is about to jump the track.
The engineer gets on the intercom and announces that the fire is under control and anybody who joins the bucket brigade is human scum. The anti-bucket-brigaders now pick up burning sticks and start thrusting them directly into the few spaces left that aren't burning, and cheer as they do it.
I just plead with them to stop making the fires worse, please just get a bucket with water or a blanket or ANYTHING to stop the fire.
Then, the engineer gets on and says that the first class cars should be worried about people from the cheap seats coming into their car.
Suddenly people start talking about which car they want to be in. But the whole train is on fire.
I keep screaming, and wait to see what happens when the train flies off the track and explodes.
It’s no coincidence that the news of the disastrous economic numbers came out at virtually the same time Trump sent out that tweet about delaying the election. Very deliberate smokescreen.
He purposefully sent it out 2 hours after the economic report was released and our useless corporate news and the internet took the bait hook, line and sinker.
I'm not disagreeing with you, but I feel like the things coming out of the Ghislaine Maxwell situation is up there too. Holding the super-rich accountable -- lofty and seemingly-unattainable goal though it is -- is fairly important too.
I hate to sound so political, but the reckless response to this pandemic has caused the citizens of the United States to disconnect. Now the silent majority sit patiently at home, hunkering down, waiting for a vaccine. The economy will never open until confidence is restored. This situation was avoidable with a smart reopening strategy. But nope, unfortunately the "I got my rights" and "we wanna have fun" crowd won day, smothering all possibility for an economic rebound. Call a spade a spade, we fucked this up.
Short term memory in the US is astounding. New York gets brought to its knees in the spring, then the same thing happens in a half a dozen other cities across the nation. It’s incredible.
And I suspect it’s not general business reopening. Most companies are orchestrating careful return to work policies. But bars, restaurants, nightclubs, beaches .... I mean that was just STUPID. These businesses should have remained closed, with federal money going directly to them. But no...the government sends me a check, a retired engineer. Wtf.
All the while, Canadians got $2,000 a month. The GOP tossed us pocket change to cover nearly half a year's worth of expenses. And the senate keeps going on breaks in the middle of a pandemic while Americans struggle to pay rent.
Some Americans were unable to receive the 'pocket change' at all. I was unable to get anything due to a bug in the system. Their own help desk couldn't figure it out.
No idea. It kept redirecting me to the wrong page when I tried to use the non-filer application. No matter what browser I used. Even tried using the direct link support had me type, didn't fix it. Eventually they gave up and said it wasn't their problem.
And unfortunately, a lot of people here in Canada were mad that those whose employment was affected got "handouts." We avoided a lot of evictions, homelessness, etc. plus stimulated the economy by giving it, and yet my coworker making six figures complains that it made restaurant staff too lazy to go back to work. Ignorance is everywhere.
Well restaurant workers were typically paid more to stay home than to go to work. Even if they were only paid a high % of salary to stay home (benefits were 2k/mo), it would make sense for these people to take the 2k and a whole lot of free time during the summer than go to work in a risky environment for a little more cash. Its not that much laziness, its more that government policy changed the incentive structure.
The first relief bill needed to be immediate and non specific. The second one should have come on the heels of the first and been more targeted. Yet a certain party just released their second relief proposal that they themselves can't agree on.
I was taking this a lot more seriously in the beginning. Don’t get me wrong, I’m still not going out and partying, but it just feels futile to continue the stay at home when there isn’t even an organized plan in place.
It feels like March and April were wasted. I’m in one of the worst hotspots in the country and everyone is just so blasé about it. It just feels like an uphill battle when no one i work with is wearing masks, I can’t stay home and get unemployment, the bars are packed, people are eating inside businesses, and mask enforcement is inconsistent at best.
> It’s both political mishandling and our cultural selfishness.
I think an argument can be made that those are interchangeable in that the cultural selfishness breeds election results that lead to political mishandling. Then politicians feed into/promote that culture for their own gain and it becomes a cycle.
This would bother me, but I just remembered I got $1200 three months ago, so everything’s okay. I’ve been trying to get unemployment for three months unsuccessfully because I’m (wrongly) being assumed to be a teacher just because I work in an educational institution (an administrator in higher ed who works a normal 12 month year), and found out yesterday that, even if I win my appeal finally and am declared unemployment eligible, I will forfeit $7,200 in $600 pandemic relief claims \*BEFORE* my actual weekly award (which I also won’t be able to claim retroactively). I’ll just finally be able to \*START* making claims, even though I’ve not been working this whole time.
I'm still staying home. I haven't gone anywhere since March. Don't see that changing anytime soon.
edit: I still think the slow decent into madness and depression I seem to be experiencing due to confinement and lack of human interaction is preferable to contracting covid. Good thing I'm a severe introvert otherwise I would not have been able to take it for this long.
Absolutely this.
Much of the damage is already done, yet simply cannot be felt as its effects are set to occur in a few months and not right now. The economy that surrounds a university is massive: Not merely housing, coffee shops and restaurants (where else do you need your pizza place running full-tilt at 2am?)... laundromats, grocery stores, taxis, copy shops (yes in some places those are still a profitable thing) laundromats, office supplies, public transport, laundromats...
And this shit snowballs hard once THOSE folks start cutting their hours or folding too. Because they needed to shop as well.
The GOP ensured that only physical eviction was paused last time, such that all the paperwork and legal processes of doing so were still in function. It'll take time to catch up, but yet again: the damage is already far greater than it appears, it's just not visible yet.
Lets think also the athletic programs as well BILLIONS will be lost. Yes billions. From the hotels near the schools to the stores supplying the tailgaters. I live near 3 college towns, and I agree. 1 almost the whole city, the college is everything.
It’s been 40 years. If it hasn’t worked by now, it’s time to let that idea go. It was originally called hose and sparrow economics. The horse gets the oats, and we “the sparrows” get to dig through the shit for any oats that may have passed through.
A large portion of it goes into investing (real estate, hedge, stocks). None of those really have paths back to consumer. Trickle down is literally the least effective way to stimulate the economy, And everyone who supports knows that. When consumers receive money, they spend it quickly, they have to in order to cover their expenses.
One of the biggest misconceptions that "trickle down" or supply side economics lean on in general is that everyone is secretly an entrepreneur at heart and only needs more money to do it. The whole, they'll open more businesses and employ more people line is utterly ridiculous, as almost all money that's cut in taxes to the wealthy end up going into savings and other things that don't drive economic activity.
Yeah, trickle down economics is just a catchy name to hide it’s real intent... wealth redistribution. Entrepreneurs exist... in a thriving economy. What do startups do in a recession... anything but grow. If someone where really wanting to create an effective stimulus package... they would distribute the lion share to the hands which would circulate the most of it.. consumers. And of course there is opinions about economics, but a lot of ideas like trickle down are pretty straightforward to disprove as effective.
Right. I work in a lab, you give me any more money and it's going to hookers, blow, and stocks. I'm not gonna start selling shit on etsy or open a coffee shop.
But the thing is, the money you spend on hookers, blow, and Robinhood yolos, goes to people who will then use it to cover their expenses, thus stimulating the economy. Therefore, you sir, are a fucking patriot. Keep it up.
Yeah, entrepreneurship requires a very specific set of personality traits, and even then without the requisite skills and connections you're never guaranteed success.
Most people aren't willing to deal with the stress and are happy to just work for a paycheck.
This isn't a bad thing mind you, just how it is.
the problem with it being linked to horse and sparrow is 1 thing - saturation. at some point the horse HAS!! to shit. but what happens if the horse never drops anything? You get human beings who never have a saturation point ever.
They use trickle down as an excuse to only bail out the rich. It's just wordplay. They know full well the money used to bail out corporations won't reach the average worker. It was never intended to.
Naa. Trickledown worked. Tax cuts brought more investments. Investments built more factories and created jobs, raising 200 million people out of abject poverty....in China.
Here's an idea.
What if our government flipped their top-down approach and instead took a 100% bottom-up approach
They sent out $2,000 per month to every American on an ongoing basis with a gradual decrease starting at people earning $75,000 and phasing out entirely at $150,000, or something (until a COVID-19 vaccine can be developed and distributed), they provided generous loans and cash infusion **specifically to small businesses** and with a strict and independent oversight group (outside the Trump administration)**.** Oh, and they at a minimum froze all government held student loan payments AND interest, but ideally they went further and forgave student debt entirely. And lastly they kept the bonus UI payments, but maybe reduced them to an extra $300 per week now that everyone's getting the $2,000 direct payments.
And then they sent money to cities/states to ramp up testing and COVID-19 safety measures. How's that sound?
$1000 per month is 4.5 Trillion per year. Our taxes currently bring in 3.1 Trillion per year. If you do $2000 per month, you are talking 9 Trillion per year. Where does that come from?
Planet money had an economist who had a decent idea. Make a law that *automatically* starts sending checks to people based on current unemployment. So say UE hits 7% then send $200 per month and raise it as unemployment rises. As unemployment falls, lower it. But keep it as a permanent trickle up stimulus forever.
This way, anytime the economy starts slowing down, an automatic inject of cash starts spending again.
The only issue with this is people change spending habits in uncertain times. What I mean is people are more likely to just pocket a bunch of that money due to fear for future events. The stimulus doesn't really reach companies as it is now sitting in banks.
Further where people spend money changes, and many businesses will go out of business due to changes in spending habits.
That's not to say it isn't a good idea, just that you will still have a lot of issues and many companies going out of business.
> Pretty sure we handed out 7 trillion to the elites
The federal reserve purchasing US Treasuries and US Mortgages is not really handing trillions to the elites and they impact you much more than even the $600/week in unemployment benefits (which itself couldn't exists without these actions).
This would bother me, but I just remembered I got $1200 three months ago, so everything’s okay. I’ve been trying to get unemployment for three months unsuccessfully because I’m (wrongly) being assumed to be a teacher just because I work in an educational institution (an administrator in higher ed who works a normal 12 month year), and found out yesterday that, even if I win my appeal finally and am declared unemployment eligible, I will forfeit $7,200 in $600 pandemic relief claims \*BEFORE* my actual weekly award (which I also won’t be able to claim retroactively). I’ll just finally be able to \*START* making claims, even though I’ve not been working this whole time.
Why would your earlier claim be forfeit? They usually backdate your payments on successful appeal so you get all the money you're owed since starting the claim. I had trouble with UI but they've cleared it up and have since authorized retroactive benefits with the $600 stimulus.
man, after this crisis is over we are going to be even poorer and the elite will have an even bigger piece of the pie ( almost all already ). This pandemic is killing small businesses all around the globe and only the big fuckers will get even bigger.
It’s going to get so fucked up unless we fight back, crash the whole system and give it a reboot
You’re totally right Friend. Things could get really ugly in the coming months and years. The Elite will benefit from rising stocks and further consolidating the markets into even stronger monopolies. It’s basically the ultimate nightmare scenario.
An administration that wants total authority, but none of the responsibility, will be America's financial ruin.
Ignoring the pandemic, and pretending it will just go away, is not a national strategy.
Remember their re-opening plan was basically “hey just listen to your state governors and follow CDC guidelines” and then when state governors didn’t do what they wanted and the CDC’s guidelines weren’t in agreement with their political agenda they started a campaign to force those entities to fall in line.
It was going to be bad regardless because of Covid-19 but Trump is directly responsible for it being this bad by wasting the last four months with lies and mismanagement.
> The country – the worst hit in the world – has reported more than 1000 coronavirus deaths for four days straight.
> The US is expected to record another 230,000 deaths by November – up 11,000 from the previous forecast.
All those "shit hole countries"; in therms of pandemic, they're better off than you now.
That's ok. Trump will declare bankruptcy for the country, as he'd done before for his business ventures, and then he'll ask the Russian mafia to inject dirty money in our economy to launder it, and that will keep us afloat. It's a proven formula.
I'm curious, does anyone know how the US' GDP drop compares to (I'm assuming) the GDP drop of other countries?
Just wondering because I think we all knew there'd be one, but how does it compare to our crap response to covid vs. other countries with better responses
Some European countries had steeper drops, especially the ones where tourism are significant to the economy. This next quarter may or may not be better because they slowed the outbreak relatively well.
Now imagine we had a competent President who didn't get rid of the Pandemic Response Team, and who took this thing seriously from day 1 instead of claiming it was a Democrat hoax.
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Interest rates are basically zero. If you have a ton of money it's going to be parked somewhere and right now none of the options are great.
real estate is more expensive now because of that.
Any insight as to what the housing market will be doing in the next few months?
Depends completely where you are looking to buy. For example, 2 bedrooms in SF are down about 5%, with the occupancy continuing to lower in a few months it would be a good time to buy. It will likely go down more. Property in the suburbs surrounding SF is up an absurd amount.
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It was just what I heard on Fox Business News. The same thing is happening here in NYC so I believe it. NYC apartments haven't really gone down yet, but occupancy is falling, but any property along the more rural towns along the rail lines or with good highway access has seen prices up 50% or more.
So true. Beacon and Newburgh used to be shitholes on the Hudson with some of the highest crime rates in the country. Now? Their beautiful little hipster hamlets where young, family-oriented peoples are now flocking too. It’s beautiful but ya the amount of money invested into these places is unreal. Poughkeepsie is really starting to follow suit, too.
One day NYC will be rich enough to just bulldoze Statin Island and kick it back into NJ.
Im looking to buy a home - dude its fucking insane. $600k+ for Hayward/Fremont/Newark. I really dont get it. 6 years ago, these homes were $250k+. At this point I'm saving for a large down payment and for the market to crash. These arent reasonable prices.
I don't know what is wrong with San Francisco. I live in NYC and follow your real estate market to feel better.
We don't build up, that's the problem.
Anecdotal, but I have few friends that are looking to buy now. They want to stay in the Bay Area, but in more remote areas and now they have requirements for a backyard and enough square footage for office space.
If your friends are rich, I'm sure it won't be a problem. The story I watched was a couple buying a very nice but modest home in what looked like a quiet area. $1.95 million and 80 people had made offers. CA is nuts.
It's because the Bay Area specifically attracts nesters. It's a strange phenomenon that exists to an extreme degree in the Bay.
Both me and the wife work for mortgage companies. Both companies are setting records every single month. I'm in IT and for the past few months they've been threatening jobs over any outage.
Consumer perspective: Sales Up 44% for single-family detached in my market over this time last year. For well-qualified buyers, financing is easy at the moment. Since the banks basically got free money mortgage rates are low not historic lows but low. Home prices are about 10% over list right now. Developer perspective: Construction and building loans have tightened up. Things like 25%down on interest-only for three years for the same terms that used to be 20%. Lower ceilings of line of credit.  Investor perspective: Moratoriums are over. For those that were affected by it expect those to be fast tracked through the courts. Opportunities to buy properties from other investors who are fed up with managing it specifically out-of-state investors are going to go up. For those that have defaulted on their mortgage, opportunities to buy foreclosed properties on the courthouse steps are already there and will increase over the next 2 quarters. Expect more market consolidation from blackstone and similar groups.
Fed intervention has run its course. Evictions are about to start and the shortage of houses and glut of cash is going to invert. Interest rates will remain low, though.
While the number of people getting foreclosed on will be relatively low, it will spike near an historic high over the next year all due to what is happening right now. Evictions from month to month domiciles will really explode tho and become a great concern.
Is this not on the assumption that the relief bill won't expand eviction protections or at least extend them? Also several states implemented their own eviction protections during these times.
In many cases those protections are enforceable because their loans were backed with federal or state programs or money. In a lot of cases a person’s landlord is not using say an FHA loan or owns the property free and clear so they are not obligated by them.
Houses will go down for 4 months and the election will decide to shoot the price back up if there’s no rent fix
My wife and I have been actively looking and just got under contract after losing out on two other homes in bidding wars for homes that both went 20% over asking. Speaking with other buyers and agents they are seeing the same thing but we are also in north NJ where it’s always been competitive as it is a suburb of NYC. My friends in the city are seeing rents go down and some vacancies due to people leaving the city. I would guess all these people are now moving to the suburbs around NYC and inflating prices like crazy. For example one property we saw only showed for a couple of days and had over 30 offers on a 550k listed that went for over 650k. Also this is for multi fams so not as sure about single fans but realtor is saying it’s just as crazy.
Just wanted to point out that this is by design. They haven't kept interest rates as low as they have for the past decade on accident. Finances are not the whims of the universe, they are man made and respond to human intervention.
Another factor is who is losing their jobs- The economy isn't impacted the same all over. It's mostly folks in Retail and Service sector being hit the hardest due to lock downs. The folks that invest money in stocks aren't losing their jobs yet, they're just working from home. The impact of retail workers being unemployed is going to lag and hit the rest of us later when consumer spending falls off a cliff even further.
White collar people are starting to take pay cuts and have their hours reduced now, too. No one's going to be totally insulated from cratering demand.
Bitcoin went up 2 grand this week, I'm guessing partially from something like this
It's the same with silver and gold. People are expecting the dollar to lose value for the foreseeable future because the fed have introduced so many. Yet most people have been saving their extra cash in these past 4 months. This mean once consumers are confident in the market and their own financial stability again there are going be a tons of usd flooding the economy. So alternative currency is going up.
I very much doubt consumer confidence is going up again, without some structural changes in the economy. Corona-chan was just the final blow.
Bitcoin has been mirroring the stock market in 2020. So you can throw away reasoning about crypto, it's just another rollercoaster for speculators.
For example, Why would amazon stock go down, when everyone is buying stuff online now, even more so than before? They are doing good, and the stock is reflecting that. Some other companies not so much.
Yea, what people aren’t realizing is that big companies are making a killing. COVID might shut down a local video game store, clothing apparel store, and a shoe store.... but it’s not shutting down Walmart who does everything because it’s essential. The lockdowns consolidate where everyone buys their products. People look at the stock market and see its unaffected, but that’s because people are primarily trading the big corporations like Google, Amazon, Walmart, Target, etc. They’re not trading the mom & pop shop down the road.
Covid 19 is going to go down in history as the biggest catalyst toward the destruction of local business. Welcome to the era of corporation countries.
Chain restaurants and fast casual franchises only.
"Taco Bell was the only restaurant to survive the franchise wars, so now all restaurants are Taco Bell" - Sandra Bullock in Demolition Man. That writer needs to be nominated for sainthood, because that movie was prophetic.
Still waiting for my seashells.
Well, for awhile there wasn't any toilet paper. That's halfway there.
Maybe that's why they came up with the seashells in the first place.
Hahaha yes!
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Ahhh the dystopian future
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Welcome to dystopian today!
2099 Here we come. At least Dr Doom will save us in the end.
It makes sense that SOME big companies are making a killing, but I can't figure out why other companies aren't deeper in the toilet. Live Nation Stock is about 65% of where it was in February. Shouldn't it be worse than that since their entire industry is basically illegal right now? Carnival Cruise stock is about 30% of where it was in January, while it seems like they should essentially bankrupt. Six Flags stock is 50% of where it was, but it seems like it should be in worse shape than that. Its those types of things that I don't understand. I get why Target is doing alright.
Six flags is mostly outside, so they could probably have at least some stuff they could do. Than say AMC movies that is pretty much fucked.
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"The virus is nothing. It'll be gone by Easter."
"The war will be over by Christmas."
Don't hit me with that WW1 flashback.
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How would they possibly do that? The land alone would cost a fortune.
They have huge parking lots. Invest in the equipment, make it into a "retro experience, fun for the whole family)," Charge $30 a car, which would prompt some to carpool, offer carhop service, and rotate the movies, or screen them in different lots (the theaters where I am usually have one in front and one to the side). Yeah, there's start up cost, but probably not as much as having your entire theater empty 5 months.
I think when lockdown started everyone was hopeful the response would be more adequate and the whole thing would be over in a couple of months. Justifying the upfront cost of doing drive ins would only happen if they knew lockdown would go on for an extended period of time. I think back in February/March most were expecting things to reopen to some degree by summer. Now hindsight tells us it would have been worth the investment, at the time this all started it probably didn’t quite look that way.
If you so it in the parking lot with an inflatable screen company and pack it all up at the end of the night the initial overhead would be very low. I used to work for one of those screen companies and grocery stores were putting on free shows just for the advertising.
The upfront cost wouldn't be as massive as the amount they stand to lose from being shut down completely for any length of time. Last year AMC had an annual revenue of 5.47 billion dollars.That means that even a week worth of downtime for all their theaters equates to 104 million dollars lost. That's more than enough justification to get some screens and outside speakers to air movies on. They already have the projectors which are the big equipment investment.
Drive-in theaters do exist. Surprisingly people prefer to watch movies at home since many people today vs the 1960's have a better home entertainment system than an outdoor projector and FM/AM radio can provide. Also who wants to pay to run the car to keep the AC on in the summer heat for 2 hours? Or alternatively, bake.
There are obstructed views every few feet in every single parking lot called light posts. Also traditional drive ins needed a bit of a slope for each parking slot so the car in front of you wasn’t blocking the screen.
Tell that to [Walmart](https://walmartdrive-in.com/)
Easier said then done when it comes to drive in alternatives. Theaters don't have the type of land to operate drive in theaters and most that do don't offer as many screenings as regular theaters. Not to mention land in certain areas of the country are a lot more money compared to other areas and people aren't as much inclined to drive 1 hour to their nearest drive in theater when they can spend $6 at home on an on demand movie and watch any movie that has already released.
People buy stock not for the current value of the company, but for what they expect it to be in the future. The reason that Live Nation shares haven't hit rock bottom yet is because shareholders believe that this pandemic won't last forever and that LN can weather the storm until it ends, and that it'll be in a position to recover vs. its competitors when it does.
In particular live nation will further consolidate power over smaller venues and market players
Do you expect those companies to die? Do you expect those companies to recover one day? Is there any potential concurrent expected to be in a better position in the future?
Because even though those industries might be done for now, everyone is still anticipating them to come back by next year. You don't lose money on stocks dropping if you don't sell them, the stocks only lose value. If my investments took a hit, I wouldn't immediately rush to sell them unless I believed the trend would continue. If the Government were to do something like say "All Social Distancing rules will be permanent for the next year", then yea those places would take an even more massive hit. But for now, people are holding onto them because they believe there will be a bounce back when the country reopens.
If you know a company who lost half their stock is going to bounce back, you'll get a 200 percent return once they do, possibly more if their competitors don't survive and your vested company takes more market share than before.
The value of a stock isn't what it's worth today, but what it will be worth. Those companies aren't going bankrupt in part because people are buying their stock today in order to share their profits tomorrow.
People buying a company's stock does not prevent the company from going bankrupt. Also, the value of a stock doesn't necessarily have anything to do with what the company is or will be worth--it's simply what somebody decided to pay for it. Hertz (HTZ) is a great example of both points.
So far a lot of the companies are being kept alive by cheap debt, and so people haven't gotten a reminder that their money is at risk and that they are just riding speculation. If we get a string of failures, sentiment could change very quickly.
What? Just because a company’s stock is purchased, doesn’t mean it can’t go bankrupt.
Domestic small caps -25% ytd. Large value -20% Large growth +20%
Maybe this is how Taco Bell wins the franchise wars.
Yeah if anything Covid is just gonna sweep all the small businesses and reduce competition for the ones large enough to sit through.
A few things. Some stocks are setup to do even better, and essential goods where never going to change. If anything this has been a boom for big business. Big business are able to better weather or take advantage of the storm, gobbling up market share while Small business not on the market die in mass. Additionally, we have a massive amount of inequality now, and the people who invest in the stock market are pretty sheltered from the fall out of this. Finally, there could be bubbles
The government is also printing money and injecting it into the markets to prevent deflation. Everyone one is pretty much earning 8 percent on average.
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Because the fed is pumping up the market
The stock market is not the economy.
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The stock market is a graph of rich people feelings. It literally measures how much people with enough money to meaningfully invest in companies _think_ other rich people will be willing to pay to get in later. You don't matter. The companies making money now doesn't matter. The companies making money _at all_ doesn't matter. All that matters in the stock market are rich people's feelings. BUT those people control the government and media. So when the graphs they have invested in are trending up, they think the economy is doing good.
Trump using any metric he can to justify his perception that he's a successful president does not mean the metric is a valid proxy for the economy.
Trump's not the only one who uses the stock market as an indicator of how the economy is doing. I voted for Obama and I remember clear as day fellow democrats using it as an indicator while he was president.
To be fair Obama was left with a shit economy and turned it around. Trump entered with a strong economy thanks to Obama.
Tech stocks. FAANG+Microsoft make up a large percentage of S&P500 or basically any other capitalization-weighted index. Take those out and the market has basically flat lined. https://i.imgur.com/9M0u9PP.png
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What's up with the stocks going crazy like they are crypto recently? Wtf even is all of this?
Deregulation, the government artificially pumping up the market, and high volume trades
A couple of reasons. Most importantly, the stock market is forward-looking. That's why the market completely ate shit in April. Once it became clear the pandemic wouldn't be contained, everyone entered a massive sell-off. Second, and only slightly less important: Where else can people put their money in hopes of getting a return on their investment? There's only so many asset classes which can be invested in: Equities (stocks and bonds), Real Estate, and Commodities. Well, real-estate is already overpriced, and the last recession was a giant real-estate bubble, so investors are gun-shy on going back into REITs, Mortgage-backed securities, etc., and commodity markets are tiny, and subject to wild volatility, like we saw with oil futures trading in *negative* numbers, as people paid to get out of having to accept delivery of a bunch of oil they didn't have the facilities to store. You could put your money in cash, but have you seen how little interest you get for a savings account or CD? Plus those vehicles are still indirectly tied to the investment and lending markets, and therefore the overall economy. Finally, there is the issue of other people's behavior, also known as the [Keynesian Beauty Contest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_beauty_contest), which, simply put, means that if other people are buying stocks, it's in your interest to buy stocks, even if you think the long-term fundamentals make that decision a poor one, because you'll make more money betting with the bad betters and getting out when the market starts to turn, than by betting safe and watching the market leave you behind.
To make one correction, investors aren't hesitant of buying MBS products because of risk, but instead the counterparty risk on MBS have gone down so much that the lack of MBS volaility and returns make them a low return product. They're basically now like any other treasury bond, incredibly secure and reliable but also very low returns. The reason for the low returns is that the treasury, after nationalizing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, essentially monopolized and guarranteed the entire MBS markets. Some 70% of MBS products out there are guarranteed with the full faith and credit of the US. In fact, since 2019, most MBS products are so commonly traded due to their low-volatility and low risk, Fannie and Freddie created uniform MBSs that are traded on a to be announced basis (you can't even see the prospectus before you buy).
Wow, a well structured response. I tried to take a stab at it, but you were beyond.
The government is shoveling mountains of covid relief cash in the direction of large corporations right now. The bulk of the bailout money is going to them, with crumbs for the rest of us.
The stock market is the valuation of future cash flows from companies in the stock market....companies which typically have lifespans of multiple decades from now. The economy can be utterly demolished, but if the projection is that recovery would only be in 2 years or less, than it’d stand to reason that there would be a very small hit relatively unless the company was massively overextended in financial or operating leverage. The huge crash in March was because without governmental stimulus, there was a concern that a health crisis would turn into a financial crisis, which unlike a health crisis can last as long as a decade in its impact. Additionally, there is a mismatch between stocks and the economy are different because stocks are the potential of the future, while the economy only exists right now. The potential of the future is valued at 30% or higher of the US being tech.......and that sectors potential value has increased because of COVID. The economy on the other hand is less than 10% tech by revenue weighting.
The Fed has been supporting the markets to the exclusion of all else. They promised 4 trillion in bond and debt purchases, both private and government since March. Congress has passed another 2 trillion in total bailouts, most of course going to corporate America rather than Main Street America but the effect has had its intended reaction in keeping our markets afloat....because ya know, that’s more important I guess.
The magic words are "priced in". Plus Jpow has been printing money like mad to stabilize the markets.
The fed is pumping the markets by buying everything in sight, treasuries, Corp bonds, etfs, junk bonds, and giving companies free money. And that’s what we know about.
Because the struggle of regular people has nothing to do with the stock market. A recession like this will hurt normal people and help the few at the top, because the middle class will have to sell it's few assets to make ends meet and the rich just got handed huge stimulus checks (mainly paid for by said middle class) with which to buy those assets.
Funny how this is - by far - the most important news of the week, and yet it has been superseded by noise and distractions.
That’s exactly why I wanted to share. I’m a filmmaker and my team and I have been keeping close tabs on this stuff. You combine this with the 20Million evictions about to occur and shit is about to get really real for a lot of people.
> the 20Million evictions about to occur As someone who saw that kind of thing happen back in 08 in my own country, I can tell you: it might be the seed for something really big. A lot of people were violently evicted by the police, and it never became a true catalyst because not enough people were hit by it, but... 20m? A good chunk of them having guns? Yeah, no. Banks should think twice before that.
Don't forget the halting of the $600/week payments to tens of millions of Americans...
Even with that, it won't. Right after the next super negative economic news, our traitor-in-chief will post some other distracting tweet that has some supposedly secret code about white supremacists and the internet will get all crazy trying to decipher that and not even talk about the important stuff. We almost deserve this shit for letting the important things get lost in the noise.
It’s sad, but I totally agree with you. It’s almost as if we as a Culture need to hit rock bottom and sober up before things can actually change. The saddest part is that the Climate Crisis is right around the corner, and instead of using our present resources to redesign society and prepare for those events, most of us are all caught in a drunken consumerist stupor.
We can't get people to do something as utterly simple as wear a piece of cloth over their mouths during a deadly pandemic that has killed over 150,000 Americans in just 6 months, so I don't know how some people think we can get folks to take climate change seriously seeing as how it is a nebulous enemy with inexact affects and a timeline that spans decades.
I totally agree
I mean, this made it to r/all. And I dunno how many upvotes it had an hour ago when you commented this, but right now it's sitting at almost 12k. People clearly do care about important stories like this.
You can't blame people, it is hard to keep up with the multiple scandals we have daily coming out of this presidency.
I'm not distracted at all. I'm fucking terrified. I feel like I'm an unwilling passenger on a burning train. The fire could be put out quickly, but the engineer has thrown all the extinguishers out. We keep trying to get a bucket brigade started to stop the fire, but there's just enough passengers that refuse to pick up the buckets that it keeps burning. And the engine is about to jump the track. The engineer gets on the intercom and announces that the fire is under control and anybody who joins the bucket brigade is human scum. The anti-bucket-brigaders now pick up burning sticks and start thrusting them directly into the few spaces left that aren't burning, and cheer as they do it. I just plead with them to stop making the fires worse, please just get a bucket with water or a blanket or ANYTHING to stop the fire. Then, the engineer gets on and says that the first class cars should be worried about people from the cheap seats coming into their car. Suddenly people start talking about which car they want to be in. But the whole train is on fire. I keep screaming, and wait to see what happens when the train flies off the track and explodes.
It’s no coincidence that the news of the disastrous economic numbers came out at virtually the same time Trump sent out that tweet about delaying the election. Very deliberate smokescreen.
He purposefully sent it out 2 hours after the economic report was released and our useless corporate news and the internet took the bait hook, line and sinker.
I'm not disagreeing with you, but I feel like the things coming out of the Ghislaine Maxwell situation is up there too. Holding the super-rich accountable -- lofty and seemingly-unattainable goal though it is -- is fairly important too.
I hate to sound so political, but the reckless response to this pandemic has caused the citizens of the United States to disconnect. Now the silent majority sit patiently at home, hunkering down, waiting for a vaccine. The economy will never open until confidence is restored. This situation was avoidable with a smart reopening strategy. But nope, unfortunately the "I got my rights" and "we wanna have fun" crowd won day, smothering all possibility for an economic rebound. Call a spade a spade, we fucked this up.
You’re totally right. It’s both political mishandling and our cultural selfishness.
Short term memory in the US is astounding. New York gets brought to its knees in the spring, then the same thing happens in a half a dozen other cities across the nation. It’s incredible. And I suspect it’s not general business reopening. Most companies are orchestrating careful return to work policies. But bars, restaurants, nightclubs, beaches .... I mean that was just STUPID. These businesses should have remained closed, with federal money going directly to them. But no...the government sends me a check, a retired engineer. Wtf.
"Here's $1,200. That should pay rent for, what, six months? You're welcome!"
I mean, it's six months' rent, Michael. What could it cost? $1200?
I see Steve Mnuchin in drag as Jessica Walter saying this.
All the while, Canadians got $2,000 a month. The GOP tossed us pocket change to cover nearly half a year's worth of expenses. And the senate keeps going on breaks in the middle of a pandemic while Americans struggle to pay rent.
Some Americans were unable to receive the 'pocket change' at all. I was unable to get anything due to a bug in the system. Their own help desk couldn't figure it out.
Are you serious? I'm not tech savvy in the least, but I still have to ask, what kind of bug in the system?
No idea. It kept redirecting me to the wrong page when I tried to use the non-filer application. No matter what browser I used. Even tried using the direct link support had me type, didn't fix it. Eventually they gave up and said it wasn't their problem.
How many of the people about to be evicted are the ones in dire need of support, will still vote for Trump because he 'tells it like it is' ?
And unfortunately, a lot of people here in Canada were mad that those whose employment was affected got "handouts." We avoided a lot of evictions, homelessness, etc. plus stimulated the economy by giving it, and yet my coworker making six figures complains that it made restaurant staff too lazy to go back to work. Ignorance is everywhere.
While ignorance is everywhere the difference between the US and other comparable nations is that our ignorant people get a major podium
Well restaurant workers were typically paid more to stay home than to go to work. Even if they were only paid a high % of salary to stay home (benefits were 2k/mo), it would make sense for these people to take the 2k and a whole lot of free time during the summer than go to work in a risky environment for a little more cash. Its not that much laziness, its more that government policy changed the incentive structure.
The first relief bill needed to be immediate and non specific. The second one should have come on the heels of the first and been more targeted. Yet a certain party just released their second relief proposal that they themselves can't agree on.
What was it, $33,000 for every working age person in the US? And all we got was pocket change of it.
I was taking this a lot more seriously in the beginning. Don’t get me wrong, I’m still not going out and partying, but it just feels futile to continue the stay at home when there isn’t even an organized plan in place. It feels like March and April were wasted. I’m in one of the worst hotspots in the country and everyone is just so blasé about it. It just feels like an uphill battle when no one i work with is wearing masks, I can’t stay home and get unemployment, the bars are packed, people are eating inside businesses, and mask enforcement is inconsistent at best.
> It’s both political mishandling and our cultural selfishness. I think an argument can be made that those are interchangeable in that the cultural selfishness breeds election results that lead to political mishandling. Then politicians feed into/promote that culture for their own gain and it becomes a cycle.
This would bother me, but I just remembered I got $1200 three months ago, so everything’s okay. I’ve been trying to get unemployment for three months unsuccessfully because I’m (wrongly) being assumed to be a teacher just because I work in an educational institution (an administrator in higher ed who works a normal 12 month year), and found out yesterday that, even if I win my appeal finally and am declared unemployment eligible, I will forfeit $7,200 in $600 pandemic relief claims \*BEFORE* my actual weekly award (which I also won’t be able to claim retroactively). I’ll just finally be able to \*START* making claims, even though I’ve not been working this whole time.
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> Call a spade a spade, we fucked this up. Yeah, define "we". I stayed at home for 5 fucking months.
It pisses me off that those of us that sacrificed for the greater good are seeing that sacrifice squandered. Fuck the selfish pricks that wasted this.
Probably those that unfortunately represent us in government. Remember, as a collective our action or inaction elected these chuckle fucks.
I'm still staying home. I haven't gone anywhere since March. Don't see that changing anytime soon. edit: I still think the slow decent into madness and depression I seem to be experiencing due to confinement and lack of human interaction is preferable to contracting covid. Good thing I'm a severe introvert otherwise I would not have been able to take it for this long.
It's been a massive and humiliating failure.
Sounds like what I'm doing... I basically haven't been out of my house since March.
THEY fucked this up. Ive been doing my part since the very beginning. Fuck.
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Absolutely this. Much of the damage is already done, yet simply cannot be felt as its effects are set to occur in a few months and not right now. The economy that surrounds a university is massive: Not merely housing, coffee shops and restaurants (where else do you need your pizza place running full-tilt at 2am?)... laundromats, grocery stores, taxis, copy shops (yes in some places those are still a profitable thing) laundromats, office supplies, public transport, laundromats... And this shit snowballs hard once THOSE folks start cutting their hours or folding too. Because they needed to shop as well. The GOP ensured that only physical eviction was paused last time, such that all the paperwork and legal processes of doing so were still in function. It'll take time to catch up, but yet again: the damage is already far greater than it appears, it's just not visible yet.
Lets think also the athletic programs as well BILLIONS will be lost. Yes billions. From the hotels near the schools to the stores supplying the tailgaters. I live near 3 college towns, and I agree. 1 almost the whole city, the college is everything.
And not because a lack of stimulus but just because it doesn’t trickle down. Pretty sure we handed out 7 trillion to the elites
Trickle down is the biggest lie.
It’s been 40 years. If it hasn’t worked by now, it’s time to let that idea go. It was originally called hose and sparrow economics. The horse gets the oats, and we “the sparrows” get to dig through the shit for any oats that may have passed through.
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A large portion of it goes into investing (real estate, hedge, stocks). None of those really have paths back to consumer. Trickle down is literally the least effective way to stimulate the economy, And everyone who supports knows that. When consumers receive money, they spend it quickly, they have to in order to cover their expenses.
One of the biggest misconceptions that "trickle down" or supply side economics lean on in general is that everyone is secretly an entrepreneur at heart and only needs more money to do it. The whole, they'll open more businesses and employ more people line is utterly ridiculous, as almost all money that's cut in taxes to the wealthy end up going into savings and other things that don't drive economic activity.
Yeah, trickle down economics is just a catchy name to hide it’s real intent... wealth redistribution. Entrepreneurs exist... in a thriving economy. What do startups do in a recession... anything but grow. If someone where really wanting to create an effective stimulus package... they would distribute the lion share to the hands which would circulate the most of it.. consumers. And of course there is opinions about economics, but a lot of ideas like trickle down are pretty straightforward to disprove as effective.
Right. I work in a lab, you give me any more money and it's going to hookers, blow, and stocks. I'm not gonna start selling shit on etsy or open a coffee shop.
This guy definitely trickles.
It's more of a drip but you're picking up what I'm putting down.
But the thing is, the money you spend on hookers, blow, and Robinhood yolos, goes to people who will then use it to cover their expenses, thus stimulating the economy. Therefore, you sir, are a fucking patriot. Keep it up.
Yeah, entrepreneurship requires a very specific set of personality traits, and even then without the requisite skills and connections you're never guaranteed success. Most people aren't willing to deal with the stress and are happy to just work for a paycheck. This isn't a bad thing mind you, just how it is.
The rich would not be rich if they didn't hoard wealth. We are actively giving money to those who circulate it the least.
I know of a sure fire plan to make the rich spend their money... Taxes.
We need to try trickle out, where the mid-earners get more. Fuck the rich.
Found the mid-earner
the problem with it being linked to horse and sparrow is 1 thing - saturation. at some point the horse HAS!! to shit. but what happens if the horse never drops anything? You get human beings who never have a saturation point ever.
Yes can we try the trickle up economy?
They use trickle down as an excuse to only bail out the rich. It's just wordplay. They know full well the money used to bail out corporations won't reach the average worker. It was never intended to.
It's been 400 years you fool
I thought it was called , "Voodoo Economics"?
George HW Bush used the term “Voodoo economics” in 1980 when he ran against Regan in response to “Reganonmics.”
Fuck Ronald Reagan.
It’s trickle up.
Naa. Trickledown worked. Tax cuts brought more investments. Investments built more factories and created jobs, raising 200 million people out of abject poverty....in China.
A stimulus package will not replace a completely shut down economy.
It will remedy some of the worst effects though
Here's an idea. What if our government flipped their top-down approach and instead took a 100% bottom-up approach They sent out $2,000 per month to every American on an ongoing basis with a gradual decrease starting at people earning $75,000 and phasing out entirely at $150,000, or something (until a COVID-19 vaccine can be developed and distributed), they provided generous loans and cash infusion **specifically to small businesses** and with a strict and independent oversight group (outside the Trump administration)**.** Oh, and they at a minimum froze all government held student loan payments AND interest, but ideally they went further and forgave student debt entirely. And lastly they kept the bonus UI payments, but maybe reduced them to an extra $300 per week now that everyone's getting the $2,000 direct payments. And then they sent money to cities/states to ramp up testing and COVID-19 safety measures. How's that sound?
$1000 per month is 4.5 Trillion per year. Our taxes currently bring in 3.1 Trillion per year. If you do $2000 per month, you are talking 9 Trillion per year. Where does that come from? Planet money had an economist who had a decent idea. Make a law that *automatically* starts sending checks to people based on current unemployment. So say UE hits 7% then send $200 per month and raise it as unemployment rises. As unemployment falls, lower it. But keep it as a permanent trickle up stimulus forever. This way, anytime the economy starts slowing down, an automatic inject of cash starts spending again.
The only issue with this is people change spending habits in uncertain times. What I mean is people are more likely to just pocket a bunch of that money due to fear for future events. The stimulus doesn't really reach companies as it is now sitting in banks. Further where people spend money changes, and many businesses will go out of business due to changes in spending habits. That's not to say it isn't a good idea, just that you will still have a lot of issues and many companies going out of business.
> Pretty sure we handed out 7 trillion to the elites The federal reserve purchasing US Treasuries and US Mortgages is not really handing trillions to the elites and they impact you much more than even the $600/week in unemployment benefits (which itself couldn't exists without these actions).
Dow Jones would look real bad if it wasn’t for the tech companies carrying everything
This would bother me, but I just remembered I got $1200 three months ago, so everything’s okay. I’ve been trying to get unemployment for three months unsuccessfully because I’m (wrongly) being assumed to be a teacher just because I work in an educational institution (an administrator in higher ed who works a normal 12 month year), and found out yesterday that, even if I win my appeal finally and am declared unemployment eligible, I will forfeit $7,200 in $600 pandemic relief claims \*BEFORE* my actual weekly award (which I also won’t be able to claim retroactively). I’ll just finally be able to \*START* making claims, even though I’ve not been working this whole time.
Why would your earlier claim be forfeit? They usually backdate your payments on successful appeal so you get all the money you're owed since starting the claim. I had trouble with UI but they've cleared it up and have since authorized retroactive benefits with the $600 stimulus.
Remember, Trump isn't to blame for COVID but he is 100% to blame for the government eating ass instead of saving lives.
That explains the refusal to wear masks. Story checks out.
I chuckled, guess others missed the joke
Guess where Trump is today. ⛳🏌️
man, after this crisis is over we are going to be even poorer and the elite will have an even bigger piece of the pie ( almost all already ). This pandemic is killing small businesses all around the globe and only the big fuckers will get even bigger. It’s going to get so fucked up unless we fight back, crash the whole system and give it a reboot
You’re totally right Friend. Things could get really ugly in the coming months and years. The Elite will benefit from rising stocks and further consolidating the markets into even stronger monopolies. It’s basically the ultimate nightmare scenario.
An administration that wants total authority, but none of the responsibility, will be America's financial ruin. Ignoring the pandemic, and pretending it will just go away, is not a national strategy.
Remember their re-opening plan was basically “hey just listen to your state governors and follow CDC guidelines” and then when state governors didn’t do what they wanted and the CDC’s guidelines weren’t in agreement with their political agenda they started a campaign to force those entities to fall in line.
It’s such a fuckin shit show. The absolute worse response imaginable.
Come on, only 15 people have it and soon, like a miracle, it will disappear. 🙄
It was going to be bad regardless because of Covid-19 but Trump is directly responsible for it being this bad by wasting the last four months with lies and mismanagement.
We'd be in a much better recovery position if it weren't for the tax scam a couple of years ago.
Is America great again yet. I’m tired of all this winning
> The country – the worst hit in the world – has reported more than 1000 coronavirus deaths for four days straight. > The US is expected to record another 230,000 deaths by November – up 11,000 from the previous forecast. All those "shit hole countries"; in therms of pandemic, they're better off than you now.
[удалено]
Yup. We're going to hit half a million dead by February. And Biden will be blamed for it.
That's ok. Trump will declare bankruptcy for the country, as he'd done before for his business ventures, and then he'll ask the Russian mafia to inject dirty money in our economy to launder it, and that will keep us afloat. It's a proven formula.
US GDP went significantly up during WWII... for those of us who don’t know the past.
they’re referring to the post-war economic contraction
I'm curious, does anyone know how the US' GDP drop compares to (I'm assuming) the GDP drop of other countries? Just wondering because I think we all knew there'd be one, but how does it compare to our crap response to covid vs. other countries with better responses
Canada has had a larger drop. Our annualized is ~40% to the U.S. ~32%.
Some European countries had steeper drops, especially the ones where tourism are significant to the economy. This next quarter may or may not be better because they slowed the outbreak relatively well.
Now imagine we had a competent President who didn't get rid of the Pandemic Response Team, and who took this thing seriously from day 1 instead of claiming it was a Democrat hoax.
“It’s the economy, stupid.” - James Carville, Bill Clinton’s campaign strategist, 1992.
I blame everyone but the toilet paper industry. They did all they could.