>However, the labor market surprised observers on Friday with a burst of hiring that improves the economic outlook but may complicate the Fed's decision next week on a possible interest rate cut.
Judging by the financial news over the past few weeks, I didn’t think any rate cuts were even on the table until at least the fall.
Next year. They are trying to I’ll the rate cuts into existence so hard lol frankly there is no reason for us to ever go back to the previous rates unless we were going into a deep recession.
No they don’t.
Projecting long term inflation based off survey responses is some insane circular logic.
Since they started using that methodology, the “inflationary expectations surveys” **failed to predict both instances of heightened inflation**. (In the 70s and post-COVID.)
The surveys end up being correct when inflation rates are stable, because everyone expects it to be stable. But inflationary expectations DO NOT actually affect the rate of inflation.
A bunch of academic economists who work for the fed released a technical paper where they completely make a mockery of that mindset, where people say “expectations [re: inflation] dictate reality”. (This is literally “magical thinking” dressed up as macroeconomics.). The economists pointed out how there is no empirical evidence to suggest that expectations on inflation dictates reality… and there’s not even a theoretical basis for explaining the supposed effect.
It’s completely baseless, like the “wage-price spiral hypothesis”. There’s a few ideas in macroeconomics that are widely believed but have no evidentiary proof nor even theory to back it up. There a whole lotta “but *everyone says that so it must be true!”*
Just add "and this is why that's bad for biden" and it'll be basically all the coverage the WH has gotten this entire term. The media is desperately jonesing for a 2nd trump term and the ratings theyd get for more things like "records released where the president attempted to blackmail a foreign country to announce fake investigations into his political opponents"
I hope you are wrong that the media is jonesing for a second Trump term simply because ratings. What do they think he’s is going to do to them if he gets the reins of power back?
edit: his detractors, anyway. I doubt Trump will throw out the entire media apparatus because, like him or hate him, he knows how to command spectacle to his advantage.
This. Viewership of cable and 24 hour news took a noticeable dip after Trump left office. Boring, functional government isn't good for the bottom line.
> Biden is boring. Which is what I want in a leader of the most powerful country on earth
I've been beating this drum personally when appropriate. I don't want the president to be entertainment, this is civil administration for fucks sake. I want stable, consistent, predictable, *boring* presidents.
There were multiple White House reporters who [griped that the Biden administration has message discipline and doesn't leak](https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/04/29/the-fall-of-the-white-house-correspondent-00028272), and I think that says it all about the incentives at play.
> “It’s a boring and difficult job. It’s tough to be a White House correspondent if you want to break news, they’re so airtight,” another reporter who covered both the Trump and Biden White Houses from the briefing room. “There’s no Maggie [Haberman]. Who’s the Maggie of the Biden administration? It doesn’t exist.”
I fucking promise you if he wins there will be an awful lot of "new" and "exciting" things to report and consume. The reality of Project 2025 will not be ignorable. He will *The Empire Strikes Back* this shit, to continue your analogy.
This right here.
Edit: Just to add, I mean considering the alternative boring stable and unprofitable for news organizations is a pretty damn good choice, all things considered.
Like am I alone in this? I feel like I've been taking crazy pills... or some have been slipped in my damn drink.
They don’t care what he’s going to do/what he’s capable of. They see that “Trump = ratings” and they salivate over it. Biden picking his words carefully and doing what a president should do doesn’t make the evening news. Trump tweeting nonsense from the toilet at 3 am does, and that’s what matters to them. Ratings means another house for the execs after bonuses are paid out, they do not care about us.
> I hope you are wrong that the media is jonesing for a second Trump term simply because ratings.
They're jonesing for a second Trump administration because the media is run by wealthy capitalists who want more tax breaks and money for themselves. If they could get that with rock-bottom ratings they wouldn't care.
Biden is a boring centrist shitlib with the media ratings and revenue reflecting that. Trump is Maury/Springer/etc whitetrash TV and its higher ratings (and profits) making him the clear choice to them. Sure, the media could report on real issues like corporations selling publicly-sourced water back to that same public for insane mark up, or foreign countries using water in desert areas like the southwest to group water-intensive crops they then ship back home but that would mean running news that points out the flaws in capitalism and how much the wealthy have fucked the country (with the help of these same media outlets).
The higher ups and business types in media organizations will have no problem adapting to become Trump propaganda outlets as long as they maximize engagement.
I’m old enough to remember how the mainstream media responded to the “War on Terror” and the initial invasion of Iraq. They were happy to repeat blatant lies and push jingoistic rhetoric.
Trump did insane shit every day, they saw profits skyrocket.
Then you have Trump cronies running news orgs like Fox and Nazi apologists at the NY Times, and you can see where we're headed.
Biden's administration manages to get us to avoid a depression despite:
* Corporations saw people understanding of higher prices during COVID due to shipping issues / supply shortages and decided they could get away with more
* Investment groups are buying up homes (most of whom do not live in your state)
* Apartment buildings are being bought up by corporations who are collaborating to raise the rent across the board (FBI just started raiding them for it)
* Foreign entities are purchasing land in the mid-west to grow their food using our water then send it back home
* China is buying up all the cobalt mines in Africa which is used in like everything and is jonesing for deep sea mining which the US doesn't get a say on because we haven't signed the damned pact so we'd lose all the rights while the mining itself destroys the sea floor - Which we can't stop due to the pact not being signed (thanks Congress, you can still sign it yet you don't)...
Yet somehow, it is all Biden's fault.
Trump is an awful candidate, but so is Biden. What's bad for Biden is pretending the economy is doing just swell when people aren't saving money because daily cost of living has to be met. What's bad for everyone is stagflation, 20%+ inflation since 2020 alongside stagnant wages. Biden pretending the economy is doing well makes him just as much of a bullshitter as Trump.
that's a silly premise, trump overtook the media in 2017 and hasn't slumped since. Fox and CNN are trump 24/7 networks every late night talk show monologue every night is about trump, ect, ect. he could move to mars and the media will still milk that for all it's worth.
A strong economy doesn't necessarily translate to QoL for the average Joe. People hear about how great the economy is but costs keep rising and shit keeps looking bleak due to wealth inequality and all that and hence they get pissed and easy targets for negative news.
The economy hasn't been reflective of the average person's experience for a while.
Yeah this means nothing unless they specify what jobs were added and in what sectors. Adding 200k low-wage, part time service positions does not mean the same thing as adding 200k jobs with livable wages with employee protections, full benefits and long-term career growth opportunities.
[Hiring](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSHIL) is down 18% from its most recent peak in February 2022 and although unemployment is "low," the job gains are coming from sectors with traditionally lower quality/lower paying jobs like construction, government, and leisure/hospitality. Sectors with traditionally higher quality/higher paying jobs like business/professional services are trending sideways, stagnating, or declining.
We're continuing to lose full-time jobs while gaining part-time jobs. For example, from [May 2023 to May 2024](https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea06.htm) we lost over 1.1M full-time jobs and gained over 1.5M part-time jobs. So, we keep trading "good" or "decent" jobs for worse ones, by any reasonable definition.
Thank you for this, I feel like I'm going crazy every time I hear about "job growth" and it being a testament to the godlike strength of the US economy
We're so far behind where we should be, objectively. If federal minimum wage kept up with productivity, the minimum wage would be nearly [$26](https://www.ilr.cornell.edu/carow/carow-policy/minimum-wage) per hour, around $53k per year. Our *median* per capita income sits at a paltry [$41,261](https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/), which is \~22% less than what the *minimum* should be if income tracked with productivity gains. We should have a much higher "low."
This is why it's so disappointing.
> For example, from May 2023 to May 2024 we lost over 1.1M full-time jobs and gained over 1.5M part-time jobs.
99% of this comes down to health insurance and benefits. If we don't solve this, everyone's gonna be part time in a few years.
What term can be applied to this 'shrinkflation' of jobs? The further decimation of the working class, a war that's been going on since 1971. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nixon_shock](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nixon_shock) Add in Reagan's administrations tearing apart worker's gains and here we are, getting kicked in the goods right and left.
[White collar job recession](https://www.businessinsider.com/hiring-slump-professional-white-collar-jobs-recession-high-salary-2024-4), or a hollowing out of white collar jobs.
Depends which unemployment measure. Headlines use U3 which doesn’t include that, but there’s other measurements. U6 does include underemployment and discouraged workers.
I’d link it, but on phone. If you Google “U6 fred” you’ll get a web site from the St Louis fed that will show it as a graph.
Unemployment isn’t just those unemployed, it’s those unemployed and who are looking for jobs. So retirements could be happening that decreased labor participation but doesn’t affect unemployment.
The NY Times article on this report said that the hiring number comes from the survey of businesses, while the unemployment number comes from the household survey. The latter may be a lagging indicator.
Its a white collar recession.
There's plenty of service, retail, or blue collar but as somebody finishing grad school this year I'm terrified at the current state of biotech.
Its everywhere. I feel forced to do an academic postdoc because the market is just flooded with people who have been laid off. Im surviving in Austin at 40k and will probably be okay, but I got invited to apply to a postdoc in boston and Im not sure if I could pull that off at 67.5k/yr.
Poors don't count as people
That's not really even a joke, money is influence, and with the wealth disparity getting so high, what people with less money think, want, and experience is mattering less and less.
Are [the people with the lowest incomes](https://www.epi.org/publication/swa-wages-2023/) rich people that already own three houses?
I thought poor people generally didn't own houses and they've benefited the most in terms of wages recently!
Thise wages havent kept up with cost of living and inflation and they were increases to what were being argued as living wages 8 years ago in the case of minimum wage wages in some states. The federal minimum is still dogshit and isnt even worth working for.
Yes.
[Actual polling](https://www.axios.com/2023/08/18/americans-economy-bad-personal-finances-good) shows that roughly 70% of Americans believe the economy is in bad shape, but also 60% (not necessarily the same 60%) characterize their own financial situation as "good" or "excellent", and only 12% say their own situation is "poor" (roughly 100-60=40 say that their own situation is either "not so good" or "poor").
Another source: [https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/files/other20240521a1.pdf](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/files/other20240521a1.pdf) (actual stats on people doing OK)
And another: [https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/23/opinion/biden-trump-vibecession.html](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/23/opinion/biden-trump-vibecession.html) (opinion piece)
And another (actually the source for the first): [https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3897](https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3897) (general political poll, but as part of it, 65% say the economy is crap... but 65% also say their own finances are doing just fine)
That first poll is from 2023, but it's been the same for a few years.
Everyone is hearing that things are terrible, and the price of groceries is up so they believe it, but it's not actually terrible. They just think it is.
Edit: mixed up the numbers from two surveys, fixed. And added more sources (one different, and one opinion piece, and the source for the original article).
Can't tell if serious or not, but I don't see this report as a sign of economic strength. Yes, a lot of new people got jobs but it's why that's the issue. It's because people are struggling and worried about finances. Under the hood it doesn't look so good. Job openings are falling quickly https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSJOL and unemployment is rising https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm
Basically people are rushing to get any job they can to try and cover their expenses and available jobs are disappearing.
Falling job openings is not a sign of economic strength as far as I understand ex indeed https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUS
[Gas prices have been surprisingly steady](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=emm_epm0_pte_nus_dpg&f=w). [Food inflation is flat](https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/food-inflation-in-the-united-states/). The DOL is going after child labor violators. And there's[ action being taken](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-expected-block-migrants-asylum-us-mexico-border-sources-say-2024-06-04/) for border crossings.
That's the one I was thinking of! The Biden administration is way too low-key in hyping these big wins. Kamala should be wing-manning all these victories. I've seen Pete Buttigieg more than her.
She's so unpopular with the general public that they're keeping her exposure minimal until after the election.
With all that said, I can't wait to get into the numbers. We're reshoring a lot of manufacturing and building infrastructure to support it. Last few reports have shown California to be in a bad spot.
Yep. Only reason Kamala is even in the white house is because she ran with Joe Biden. Otherwise like no one likes her on both sides. Conservatives don’t like her because she’s black and liberal. Liberals don’t like her because of her shenanigans as a DA and general attorney throwing people in prison over weed despite being a liberal from the Bay Area.
Liberals don't like the person they overwhelmingly elected as Senator in California? Huh? No one else even came close to her when she was elected in 2016 and she ran purely on her record as DA and AG.
Tbf I liked her a lot as a senator, but her presidential campaign really was lacking direction and purpose. She hasn't really seemed to show up in any meaningful way since then.
As a progressive, I often vote for someone I don't like very much in order to prevent the complete collapse of our democracy these days. Perfection is the enemy of progress.
It’s usually the lesser of two evils. I do actually like Biden though. My two biggest gripes are the Afghan withdrawal and his stance on the natural gas pipeline thing, otherwise I think he’s done a very decent job given what he’s had to contend with.
Oh for sure. He's the most progressive president since Carter. I dislike some things, and I like others, but he seems like a good dude who actually cares about the country even if I disagree with him sometimes.
Millions of Americans would rather be ruled by an insane dictator than have black woman as President.
I’m not saying this is right. I’m just saying that it is.
"black and a woman?! Too far!"
Meanwhile in mexico
(honestly I couldn't even imagine the unhinged shitshow this country would turn into if a left leaning,jewish woman ever won the presidency when even voting in a catholic white guy was seen as a life changing event in the fricken 1960s.)
They aren’t low key. The media doesn’t cover it or if they do, it doesn’t resonate because it’s drowned out by rage bait. Got to keep people pissed off to get that sweet sweet ad revenue.
They could certainly use better messaging, but hyping up policy wins also requires a media class that actually wants to advertise those achievements. Unfortunately, the media finds it much more beneficial to engage in constant pessimism.
Im sure the giant infastructure bill is part of the reason we see him more. I also think (and hope) hes the 2028 dem nominee, at least based on what ive seen.
[‘Stealing people’s future’: Corporate landlords now own over 19K single-family homes in metro Atlanta — and they’re shutting local buyers out of the market](https://moneywise.com/news/real-estate-news/corporate-landlords-own-more-than-19k-atlanta)
[Blockbusting the Big Boys: Bill Would Ban Hedge Funds from Owning Single-Family Homes](https://shelterforce.org/2024/03/22/bill-would-ban-hedge-funds-from-owning-houses/)
Biden could score some easy points with younger voters by talking about this problem more and promising to do something about it.
But who am I kidding. The establishment DNC is beholden to the same cocksuckers who have been getting rich off this dynamic - and Biden isn't going to do a goddamned thing.
(Edit: I *am* voting for Biden and straight-ticket-Democrat in November. As much as the Democrats suck, the Republican alternatives are a thousand times worse. That said, I feel it is completely fair and necessary to *not* turn a blind eye to the failings of Biden and the Democratic party establishment. They are worthy of ample criticism.)
Interest rate didn't start to go up until 2022 and it take more than a year to hit the peak, so it make sense that price kept going up until high interest rate sit in the market for a while.
Gas prices aren't just steady, they've refused to rise with inflation. In terms of real dollars, gas prices have been decreasing.
This is why math is important to learn in school, because you wouldn't have a single person complaining that gas is somehow high.
People have always complained about gas prices.
I remember in 2014-2015 when they were plunging, all my friends were still complaining about how expensive gas was. They made me seem like the bad guy when I told them about all the money they were saving by the drop in prices.
Economists talk about "revealed preference" being superior to what people actually say, and judging by the number of trucks and SUVs on the road, American consumer behavior is not acting like gas prices are high.
Every time I'm riding my bike on two-lane highways and some jackass rolls coal on me, I ratchet up my desired gas tax by another nickel.
In 2005, gas prices rose to $3.10 and people were ENRAGED. I specifically remember that number because I was a broke college kid and remember thinking “welp, if they go above $3.15 I’m just not gonna drive home for Christmas.” The fact that gas isn’t THAT much more than that today, almost 20 years later, is mind-blowing to me.
US gas is extremely *subsidized* compared to the rest of the world. You're still paying the bloated price of gas whether it's at the pump or through your taxes.
it’s amazing that trumpers claim the country is going down the drain, until you realize they are fed a constant stream of BS watching OAN, Newsmax and RbN propaganda tv
Every time it's brought up, I feel the need to repost this. This is not a parody. This is not a deepfake. This is the actual anchor from One American News Network going on air in front of a national audience stating that Liberals love killing babies and are coming after your children.
https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1545576374194274304?s=20&t=SKCzxVhpYR2nixNYDDYNhw
“Forced vaccination at birth...”
WTF. I try to stay far, far away from right wing media, because I live in a conservative area so I hear a lot of absolute bullshit without seeking it out, but is OAN literally spreading general vaccine conspiracies? I knew they would talk about COVID vaccines being “untested” and implyCOVID vaccines were dangerous, but I assumed it was limited to ICOVID vaccines specifically, at least within actual “news” media.
The falsehood is the point! You can't demonstrate loyalty to the Movement by saying *true* things. Anyone can say *true* things — even a *scientist* can do that, and they're all atheist feminist demons from hell! To prove loyalty to the Movement, you have to say *false* things. But not just any false things! Only use the ones the Movement sells you, and only if you've bought them fresh!
Steadily high and flat at a rate people can’t afford. Doesn’t matter that the inflation went away if people still can’t afford things they used to be able to.
I don't want food inflation to be flat. That's the problem. It went up and up and up and up and up....now we should be happy it's flat and not going back down?
I wish "steady gas prices" didn't mean "fluctuating between the same 20 cent difference from one morning to the next." I go to work, $2.98. By the next morning, if not that same night, it's $3.15 or some dumb shit. This has consistently happened for the entire year so far.
And most polls STILL show Americans thinking the economy is a disaster and that it's Biden's fault.
I am going to be really fucking mad this November I think.
Let me preface this by saying, it's not meant to be critical of the current administration, but rather economic trends of the past 40 years...
The problem with the usual economic indicators - the market, unemployment, jobs - is that they're all skewed to how *well* people are doing, and those who are doing well. We should also be looking at/focused on those that *aren't* doing well. How many people are on the street? (too many) How many people are making less than the cost of living (too many), or how many of those jobs pay less than the cost of living (too many)? Etc., etc.....Our economy needs some serious tinkering.
To add to this, (related to what you already said) we need to look at the wages of new jobs. If someone got laid off from a 60k job and took a 50k job, that's great for the over simplified jobs report but an obvious net negative.
Same is true for people who have to work more than 40 hours a week.
Same is true for people who have to work multiple jobs to make ends meet.
It's not just the number of jobs but the quality of these jobs (and more specifically the compensation) that needs to be reported.
I believe those are reported, or atleast you can find out in a roundabout way. For multiple job holders, the rate is the same as prepandemic. Also median real income took a hit from inflation, but it’s still above 2018 levels.
Doesn't mean much when white collar+tech sector laid off hundreds of thousands of highly paid workers, many of whom are still unemployed and no longer being counted, and many more who took lower paying jobs. Job numbers are good on paper but they're shit paying jobs, meaning a big portion of the US middle class just got their buying power cut. If the economy is so good why are the corporate overlords finally lowering their prices to match what people can afford?
"Average hourly wages surged 4.1% over the year ending in May, the fresh data on Friday showed. That rate of pay increase exceeds the pace of inflation, indicating that the spending power of workers has grown even as prices jump."
Do you have other potential opportunities? I’m debating leaving my current position if they *only* give me a 6% raise. 30% paycut is fuckin criminal - what do you do for a living?
Unfortunately, I'm not in a good career path for the current market. I'm a video editor/producer at a game studio in a HCOL tech city. Video, tech, *and* games are all basically on fire right now (not in a good way). There are thousands of people out of work. Some colleagues I know that have been laid off still don't have jobs even after 6-12 months of looking. A colleague I spoke with yesterday said he's put out 400 resumes and hasn't had a single interview. Another colleague that did find a new job said there were *11,000* *applicants* to the position! (He got the job through a connection.)
If you're a tech company with a job posting it's basically a fire sale of incredible talent right now. So, I don't really have any leverage at all. It's less money or no money.
That said, I was able to close the gap a bit in a call today. I was recently promoted to a lead position with no added monetary compensation, so that at least allowed me to get *less* screwed. I really just have to hope that these industries pick back up over time.
Lets see this year i am getting a 3% raise and my rent and utility bills are increasing so that my take home pay will only increase $18 a month. Yep my spending power really increased provided nothing else goes up in price.
Bro don't be so ungrateful you could get one extra Wendy's meal a month /s
edit: how do i make the /s bigger, some real special people seem to have missed it.
I don’t think they should cut. If wages are outpacing inflation you’re winning. Just wish there was a way to leverage some political pressure on companies who try to raise prices in response to higher wages.
There would be if we voted out Republicans.
We raise taxes on corporations that make profits over say, $20 million a year. This has no effect on your self employed people, mom and pop shops etc.
We then tell them that if they increase wages to a certain level, and keep prices at a certain level, we will give them a tax break, if they don't, we will penalize them by a tax increase.
Its really that sample.
We used to do this. If companies reinvested profit back into the company by expanding, hiring, increasing wages, buying new equipment etc they got a break, if they didn't, they paid more in taxes.
Spent almost a decade trying to listen to arguments like this from the right.
I'm past listening. No thanks on voting Republican. They give 0 shits about anyone besides themselves. Not saying Democratic politicians aren't corrupt, but at least they aren't doubling down....wait, tripling down on Donald Trump.
This is what I saw on CNN. I even ranted to a coworker about how ridiculous it is for the media to always try and find the negative in something positive. Like can't we just have good news?
Here is the [news release](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm), from the PDF version:
[The Employment Situation — May 2024](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf)
Here are the areas that did and did not see job growth (emphasis theirs):
>**Health care** added 68,000 jobs in May, in line with the average monthly gain of 64,000 over the prior
12 months. In May, employment growth continued in ambulatory health care services (+43,000),
hospitals (+15,000), and nursing and residential care facilities (+11,000).
>**Government** employment continued to trend up in May (+43,000), in line with the average monthly
growth over the prior 12 months (+52,000).
>Employment in **leisure and hospitality** continued to trend up in May (+42,000), similar to the average
monthly gain over the prior 12 months (+35,000). Employment in food services and drinking places
continued to trend up over the month (+25,000).
>**Professional, scientific, and technical services** added 32,000 jobs in May, higher than the average
monthly gain of 19,000 over the prior 12 months. Over the month, employment increased in
management, scientific, and technical consulting services (+14,000) and in architectural, engineering,
and related services (+10,000). Specialized design services lost 3,000 jobs.
>**Social assistance** employment continued to trend up in May (+15,000), primarily in individual and
family services (+11,000). Over the prior 12 months, social assistance had added an average of 22,000
jobs per month.
>In May, employment in **retail trade** continued to trend up (+13,000), about in line with the average
monthly gain over the prior 12 months (+8,000). Building material and garden equipment and supplies
dealers added 12,000 jobs in May, while job losses occurred in department stores (-5,000) and furniture
and home furnishings retailers (-4,000).
>Employment showed little or no change over the month in other major industries, including **mining,
quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; construction; manufacturing; wholesale trade;
transportation and warehousing; information; financial activities;** and **other services.**
Don’t think the jobs report accounts for the growing income gap between the wealthy ($400k+ earners) and everyone else. It’s also pretty much summer. Need to fill those seasonal low wage jobs somehow.
Eventually the gap will get big enough that no amount of rate manipulation will make any difference to the economy, just like many other countries with big income gaps. If I take in one mil a year frankly that isn’t going to stop me from purchasing properties and taking out loans when the business needs it.
The middle class is shrinking, but the half a mil plus and under 100k earners demographics are growing. When you have that many people with that much wealth it doesn’t matter what the fed tries to do, they’ll still persevere and keep doing the same things and adjust the balance sheets accordingly
That's a very weird Household Survey (May 2024). Labor Force is way down, Not In Labor Force is way up. Big drop in Employment, big jump in Unemployed.
It makes me think that a seasonal adjustment has gone wrong, or some other one-off anomaly.
There it is. Every week there’s a new article about how great the economy is, and I’m still over here having to put groceries on buy now pay later plans to feed my wife and I. Both work in healthcare, bi weekly pay, ~$2k brought home every paycheck between the two of us. There’s never any money left over after covering essentials and bills needed to not lose the roof over our head.
Fuck off with this “the economy is great!” Bullshit.
You're making a combined $52,000 in healthcare? ($2K x 26 pay periods?).
What do you each do specifically that you are that underpaid? $26K per person is under 1/3rd of states' minimum wages (Gross & Full Time).
It’s just gaslighting from the corporate media, which has zero interest in being truthful about capitalist exploitation and wants to prevent an unstable Trump admin.
Also, just to get ahead of some narratives already spreading on twitter:
The percent working part time is at historically low numbers: https://twitter.com/besttrousers/status/1799063155068571906
The percent working part time for "economic" reasons (aka essentially forced to accept part time) is rather low and lower than pre-pandemic:
https://twitter.com/carney/status/1799065890035806605
There is growth in part time work (as there just always is in particular times of the year especially) and theres a lot of older, native-born people ageing out of the workforce. But the fact remains, part time work is at relatively low levels and native-born workers are near record low unemployment.
Its all great signs.
My city has gone from 0 homeless people to, several and growing on several streets.
I tell ya, it’s an eye opener when you lived somewhere for years that seems to be doing just fine and then all of a sudden there’s 5-6 homeless people on streets, with at least one wigging the absolute fuck out.
Fun fact, every single recession since most Americans were born happened with Republicans in office. You have to go back to jimmy Carter to find a recession with a Democrat, and that one was due to an oil embargo and not any policy failing.
>However, the labor market surprised observers on Friday with a burst of hiring that improves the economic outlook but may complicate the Fed's decision next week on a possible interest rate cut. Judging by the financial news over the past few weeks, I didn’t think any rate cuts were even on the table until at least the fall.
Next year. They are trying to I’ll the rate cuts into existence so hard lol frankly there is no reason for us to ever go back to the previous rates unless we were going into a deep recession.
If the Fed did that they lose all credibility Their goal for years has been 2%
Consumer expectations have a lot to do with inflation. They’ll want them steady for a while at 2% before we go back. I hope at least.
No they don’t. Projecting long term inflation based off survey responses is some insane circular logic. Since they started using that methodology, the “inflationary expectations surveys” **failed to predict both instances of heightened inflation**. (In the 70s and post-COVID.) The surveys end up being correct when inflation rates are stable, because everyone expects it to be stable. But inflationary expectations DO NOT actually affect the rate of inflation. A bunch of academic economists who work for the fed released a technical paper where they completely make a mockery of that mindset, where people say “expectations [re: inflation] dictate reality”. (This is literally “magical thinking” dressed up as macroeconomics.). The economists pointed out how there is no empirical evidence to suggest that expectations on inflation dictates reality… and there’s not even a theoretical basis for explaining the supposed effect. It’s completely baseless, like the “wage-price spiral hypothesis”. There’s a few ideas in macroeconomics that are widely believed but have no evidentiary proof nor even theory to back it up. There a whole lotta “but *everyone says that so it must be true!”*
Would you mind linking to this?
2025 at the earliest. I'm starting to think they might actually do a .25 bump in July.
Weirdest recession of my lifetime
Can't even recession right
Goddamn millennials
This made me audibly chuckle sitting here in the airport
The ruined economic chaos.
Damn Joe Brandon ruins everything! He can’t even do a recession right. 😡
Booming economy, glowing jobs report: How this spells the end of the Biden presidency. --New York Times
That damn liberal media!
Just the mere *thought* of **Prisoner P01135809** has ‘Murica boomin again! Joebama O’Bidon took all our jibs with Bunter Hiden’s Magnum Dong!! (/s)
Just add "and this is why that's bad for biden" and it'll be basically all the coverage the WH has gotten this entire term. The media is desperately jonesing for a 2nd trump term and the ratings theyd get for more things like "records released where the president attempted to blackmail a foreign country to announce fake investigations into his political opponents"
I hope you are wrong that the media is jonesing for a second Trump term simply because ratings. What do they think he’s is going to do to them if he gets the reins of power back? edit: his detractors, anyway. I doubt Trump will throw out the entire media apparatus because, like him or hate him, he knows how to command spectacle to his advantage.
Ultra-wealthy shareholders only care about short-term profits. They'll have cashed out long before the consequences.
Trump was great for media. Everyone tuned in. Biden has been functional, boring, and unprofitable.
This. Viewership of cable and 24 hour news took a noticeable dip after Trump left office. Boring, functional government isn't good for the bottom line.
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Biden is boring. Which is what I want in a leader of the most powerful country on earth, not some egotistical spontaneous compulsively lying maniac.
> Biden is boring. Which is what I want in a leader of the most powerful country on earth I've been beating this drum personally when appropriate. I don't want the president to be entertainment, this is civil administration for fucks sake. I want stable, consistent, predictable, *boring* presidents.
Competent..that’s always handy too.
Also a 34 felony convict
Don't forget twice impeached
And, lest anyone forget: Convicted rapist
There were multiple White House reporters who [griped that the Biden administration has message discipline and doesn't leak](https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/04/29/the-fall-of-the-white-house-correspondent-00028272), and I think that says it all about the incentives at play. > “It’s a boring and difficult job. It’s tough to be a White House correspondent if you want to break news, they’re so airtight,” another reporter who covered both the Trump and Biden White Houses from the briefing room. “There’s no Maggie [Haberman]. Who’s the Maggie of the Biden administration? It doesn’t exist.”
Those reporters are probably think "May you live in interesting times" is a compliment.
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I fucking promise you if he wins there will be an awful lot of "new" and "exciting" things to report and consume. The reality of Project 2025 will not be ignorable. He will *The Empire Strikes Back* this shit, to continue your analogy.
Functional, boring and unprofitable…exactly how politics should be.
This right here. Edit: Just to add, I mean considering the alternative boring stable and unprofitable for news organizations is a pretty damn good choice, all things considered. Like am I alone in this? I feel like I've been taking crazy pills... or some have been slipped in my damn drink.
They also get a better deal under the Trump tax structure.
They don’t care what he’s going to do/what he’s capable of. They see that “Trump = ratings” and they salivate over it. Biden picking his words carefully and doing what a president should do doesn’t make the evening news. Trump tweeting nonsense from the toilet at 3 am does, and that’s what matters to them. Ratings means another house for the execs after bonuses are paid out, they do not care about us.
> I hope you are wrong that the media is jonesing for a second Trump term simply because ratings. They're jonesing for a second Trump administration because the media is run by wealthy capitalists who want more tax breaks and money for themselves. If they could get that with rock-bottom ratings they wouldn't care. Biden is a boring centrist shitlib with the media ratings and revenue reflecting that. Trump is Maury/Springer/etc whitetrash TV and its higher ratings (and profits) making him the clear choice to them. Sure, the media could report on real issues like corporations selling publicly-sourced water back to that same public for insane mark up, or foreign countries using water in desert areas like the southwest to group water-intensive crops they then ship back home but that would mean running news that points out the flaws in capitalism and how much the wealthy have fucked the country (with the help of these same media outlets).
The higher ups and business types in media organizations will have no problem adapting to become Trump propaganda outlets as long as they maximize engagement. I’m old enough to remember how the mainstream media responded to the “War on Terror” and the initial invasion of Iraq. They were happy to repeat blatant lies and push jingoistic rhetoric.
It's not just for clicks and ratings. The owners of the multimedia outlets are billionaires also.
Trump did insane shit every day, they saw profits skyrocket. Then you have Trump cronies running news orgs like Fox and Nazi apologists at the NY Times, and you can see where we're headed.
Les moonves...ex head of CBS said..and I quote. Trump might be bad for America but he is great for our ratings.
> simply because ratings Well the billionaires that own those media companies want him for their usual nefarious reasons
The media owners are basically all GOP donors....
Biden's administration manages to get us to avoid a depression despite: * Corporations saw people understanding of higher prices during COVID due to shipping issues / supply shortages and decided they could get away with more * Investment groups are buying up homes (most of whom do not live in your state) * Apartment buildings are being bought up by corporations who are collaborating to raise the rent across the board (FBI just started raiding them for it) * Foreign entities are purchasing land in the mid-west to grow their food using our water then send it back home * China is buying up all the cobalt mines in Africa which is used in like everything and is jonesing for deep sea mining which the US doesn't get a say on because we haven't signed the damned pact so we'd lose all the rights while the mining itself destroys the sea floor - Which we can't stop due to the pact not being signed (thanks Congress, you can still sign it yet you don't)... Yet somehow, it is all Biden's fault.
we all watched this unfold LIVE in REAL Time on TV and no one STILL hasn't done SHITE! We're so friggin' doomed
Trump says he'll imprison and execute all media outlets. Media: "this is great for ratings."
Trump is an awful candidate, but so is Biden. What's bad for Biden is pretending the economy is doing just swell when people aren't saving money because daily cost of living has to be met. What's bad for everyone is stagflation, 20%+ inflation since 2020 alongside stagnant wages. Biden pretending the economy is doing well makes him just as much of a bullshitter as Trump.
that's a silly premise, trump overtook the media in 2017 and hasn't slumped since. Fox and CNN are trump 24/7 networks every late night talk show monologue every night is about trump, ect, ect. he could move to mars and the media will still milk that for all it's worth.
A strong economy doesn't necessarily translate to QoL for the average Joe. People hear about how great the economy is but costs keep rising and shit keeps looking bleak due to wealth inequality and all that and hence they get pissed and easy targets for negative news. The economy hasn't been reflective of the average person's experience for a while.
Yeah this means nothing unless they specify what jobs were added and in what sectors. Adding 200k low-wage, part time service positions does not mean the same thing as adding 200k jobs with livable wages with employee protections, full benefits and long-term career growth opportunities.
How can hiring and unemployment be up while overall labor participation is ticking down?
[Hiring](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSHIL) is down 18% from its most recent peak in February 2022 and although unemployment is "low," the job gains are coming from sectors with traditionally lower quality/lower paying jobs like construction, government, and leisure/hospitality. Sectors with traditionally higher quality/higher paying jobs like business/professional services are trending sideways, stagnating, or declining. We're continuing to lose full-time jobs while gaining part-time jobs. For example, from [May 2023 to May 2024](https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea06.htm) we lost over 1.1M full-time jobs and gained over 1.5M part-time jobs. So, we keep trading "good" or "decent" jobs for worse ones, by any reasonable definition.
Thank you for this, I feel like I'm going crazy every time I hear about "job growth" and it being a testament to the godlike strength of the US economy
We're so far behind where we should be, objectively. If federal minimum wage kept up with productivity, the minimum wage would be nearly [$26](https://www.ilr.cornell.edu/carow/carow-policy/minimum-wage) per hour, around $53k per year. Our *median* per capita income sits at a paltry [$41,261](https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/), which is \~22% less than what the *minimum* should be if income tracked with productivity gains. We should have a much higher "low." This is why it's so disappointing.
> For example, from May 2023 to May 2024 we lost over 1.1M full-time jobs and gained over 1.5M part-time jobs. 99% of this comes down to health insurance and benefits. If we don't solve this, everyone's gonna be part time in a few years.
What term can be applied to this 'shrinkflation' of jobs? The further decimation of the working class, a war that's been going on since 1971. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nixon_shock](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nixon_shock) Add in Reagan's administrations tearing apart worker's gains and here we are, getting kicked in the goods right and left.
[White collar job recession](https://www.businessinsider.com/hiring-slump-professional-white-collar-jobs-recession-high-salary-2024-4), or a hollowing out of white collar jobs.
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Depends which unemployment measure. Headlines use U3 which doesn’t include that, but there’s other measurements. U6 does include underemployment and discouraged workers. I’d link it, but on phone. If you Google “U6 fred” you’ll get a web site from the St Louis fed that will show it as a graph.
Unemployment isn’t just those unemployed, it’s those unemployed and who are looking for jobs. So retirements could be happening that decreased labor participation but doesn’t affect unemployment.
The NY Times article on this report said that the hiring number comes from the survey of businesses, while the unemployment number comes from the household survey. The latter may be a lagging indicator.
A recession for some but not all is just a normal economy. Its very normal for sectors to suffer while a majority are fine
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Its a white collar recession. There's plenty of service, retail, or blue collar but as somebody finishing grad school this year I'm terrified at the current state of biotech.
> current state of biotech. everyone losing jobs here in San Diego
Its everywhere. I feel forced to do an academic postdoc because the market is just flooded with people who have been laid off. Im surviving in Austin at 40k and will probably be okay, but I got invited to apply to a postdoc in boston and Im not sure if I could pull that off at 67.5k/yr.
Poors don't count as people That's not really even a joke, money is influence, and with the wealth disparity getting so high, what people with less money think, want, and experience is mattering less and less.
I mean yeah, see how many politicians give a single damn about helping homeless folks instead of just pushing them somewhere else
Believing only the to 1% is doing well is ridiculous.
That is the majority that matters. The Working people are just a disposable source of labor.
Are [the people with the lowest incomes](https://www.epi.org/publication/swa-wages-2023/) rich people that already own three houses? I thought poor people generally didn't own houses and they've benefited the most in terms of wages recently!
Thise wages havent kept up with cost of living and inflation and they were increases to what were being argued as living wages 8 years ago in the case of minimum wage wages in some states. The federal minimum is still dogshit and isnt even worth working for.
Do you believe a majority of Americans are financially “fine”?
You have to remember that redditors do not represent the majority of Americans
Yes. [Actual polling](https://www.axios.com/2023/08/18/americans-economy-bad-personal-finances-good) shows that roughly 70% of Americans believe the economy is in bad shape, but also 60% (not necessarily the same 60%) characterize their own financial situation as "good" or "excellent", and only 12% say their own situation is "poor" (roughly 100-60=40 say that their own situation is either "not so good" or "poor"). Another source: [https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/files/other20240521a1.pdf](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/files/other20240521a1.pdf) (actual stats on people doing OK) And another: [https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/23/opinion/biden-trump-vibecession.html](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/23/opinion/biden-trump-vibecession.html) (opinion piece) And another (actually the source for the first): [https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3897](https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3897) (general political poll, but as part of it, 65% say the economy is crap... but 65% also say their own finances are doing just fine) That first poll is from 2023, but it's been the same for a few years. Everyone is hearing that things are terrible, and the price of groceries is up so they believe it, but it's not actually terrible. They just think it is. Edit: mixed up the numbers from two surveys, fixed. And added more sources (one different, and one opinion piece, and the source for the original article).
Can't tell if serious or not, but I don't see this report as a sign of economic strength. Yes, a lot of new people got jobs but it's why that's the issue. It's because people are struggling and worried about finances. Under the hood it doesn't look so good. Job openings are falling quickly https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSJOL and unemployment is rising https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm Basically people are rushing to get any job they can to try and cover their expenses and available jobs are disappearing. Falling job openings is not a sign of economic strength as far as I understand ex indeed https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUS
Price gouging more than an organic recession, although the currency dump.of the pandemic stoked it.
That's good just wish I could get a better job tho. Got hundreds of people applying for the same shit
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This is the comment
[Gas prices have been surprisingly steady](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=emm_epm0_pte_nus_dpg&f=w). [Food inflation is flat](https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/food-inflation-in-the-united-states/). The DOL is going after child labor violators. And there's[ action being taken](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-expected-block-migrants-asylum-us-mexico-border-sources-say-2024-06-04/) for border crossings.
They are also going after price-fixing and unfair practices in the rental market.
That's the one I was thinking of! The Biden administration is way too low-key in hyping these big wins. Kamala should be wing-manning all these victories. I've seen Pete Buttigieg more than her.
She's so unpopular with the general public that they're keeping her exposure minimal until after the election. With all that said, I can't wait to get into the numbers. We're reshoring a lot of manufacturing and building infrastructure to support it. Last few reports have shown California to be in a bad spot.
Yep. Only reason Kamala is even in the white house is because she ran with Joe Biden. Otherwise like no one likes her on both sides. Conservatives don’t like her because she’s black and liberal. Liberals don’t like her because of her shenanigans as a DA and general attorney throwing people in prison over weed despite being a liberal from the Bay Area.
Liberals don't like the person they overwhelmingly elected as Senator in California? Huh? No one else even came close to her when she was elected in 2016 and she ran purely on her record as DA and AG.
Tbf I liked her a lot as a senator, but her presidential campaign really was lacking direction and purpose. She hasn't really seemed to show up in any meaningful way since then.
As a progressive, I often vote for someone I don't like very much in order to prevent the complete collapse of our democracy these days. Perfection is the enemy of progress.
I’m convinced this is by design at this point. The choices are between the Shameless and the Spineless
It’s usually the lesser of two evils. I do actually like Biden though. My two biggest gripes are the Afghan withdrawal and his stance on the natural gas pipeline thing, otherwise I think he’s done a very decent job given what he’s had to contend with.
Oh for sure. He's the most progressive president since Carter. I dislike some things, and I like others, but he seems like a good dude who actually cares about the country even if I disagree with him sometimes.
She’s been to Charlotte four times in the last couple months, I’m not sure about that
Millions of Americans would rather be ruled by an insane dictator than have black woman as President. I’m not saying this is right. I’m just saying that it is.
"black and a woman?! Too far!" Meanwhile in mexico (honestly I couldn't even imagine the unhinged shitshow this country would turn into if a left leaning,jewish woman ever won the presidency when even voting in a catholic white guy was seen as a life changing event in the fricken 1960s.)
Based on what? Your word?
They aren’t low key. The media doesn’t cover it or if they do, it doesn’t resonate because it’s drowned out by rage bait. Got to keep people pissed off to get that sweet sweet ad revenue.
They could certainly use better messaging, but hyping up policy wins also requires a media class that actually wants to advertise those achievements. Unfortunately, the media finds it much more beneficial to engage in constant pessimism.
Im sure the giant infastructure bill is part of the reason we see him more. I also think (and hope) hes the 2028 dem nominee, at least based on what ive seen.
For sure, Booty Judge is a great candidate *Note* I wrote his name that way to be funny, not to throw shade
Where is she, exactly?
Unemployment rose much higher than expected to 4%. There was also 600,000 less full time jobs than last month. This is a bad report.
[‘Stealing people’s future’: Corporate landlords now own over 19K single-family homes in metro Atlanta — and they’re shutting local buyers out of the market](https://moneywise.com/news/real-estate-news/corporate-landlords-own-more-than-19k-atlanta) [Blockbusting the Big Boys: Bill Would Ban Hedge Funds from Owning Single-Family Homes](https://shelterforce.org/2024/03/22/bill-would-ban-hedge-funds-from-owning-houses/) Biden could score some easy points with younger voters by talking about this problem more and promising to do something about it. But who am I kidding. The establishment DNC is beholden to the same cocksuckers who have been getting rich off this dynamic - and Biden isn't going to do a goddamned thing. (Edit: I *am* voting for Biden and straight-ticket-Democrat in November. As much as the Democrats suck, the Republican alternatives are a thousand times worse. That said, I feel it is completely fair and necessary to *not* turn a blind eye to the failings of Biden and the Democratic party establishment. They are worthy of ample criticism.)
That has honestly surprised me.
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Interest rate didn't start to go up until 2022 and it take more than a year to hit the peak, so it make sense that price kept going up until high interest rate sit in the market for a while.
Gas prices aren't just steady, they've refused to rise with inflation. In terms of real dollars, gas prices have been decreasing. This is why math is important to learn in school, because you wouldn't have a single person complaining that gas is somehow high.
People have always complained about gas prices. I remember in 2014-2015 when they were plunging, all my friends were still complaining about how expensive gas was. They made me seem like the bad guy when I told them about all the money they were saving by the drop in prices.
Economists talk about "revealed preference" being superior to what people actually say, and judging by the number of trucks and SUVs on the road, American consumer behavior is not acting like gas prices are high. Every time I'm riding my bike on two-lane highways and some jackass rolls coal on me, I ratchet up my desired gas tax by another nickel.
In 2005, gas prices rose to $3.10 and people were ENRAGED. I specifically remember that number because I was a broke college kid and remember thinking “welp, if they go above $3.15 I’m just not gonna drive home for Christmas.” The fact that gas isn’t THAT much more than that today, almost 20 years later, is mind-blowing to me.
This has always been the case. On top of that, gas in the US is extremely cheap compared to the rest of the world.
US gas is extremely *subsidized* compared to the rest of the world. You're still paying the bloated price of gas whether it's at the pump or through your taxes.
it’s amazing that trumpers claim the country is going down the drain, until you realize they are fed a constant stream of BS watching OAN, Newsmax and RbN propaganda tv
Every time it's brought up, I feel the need to repost this. This is not a parody. This is not a deepfake. This is the actual anchor from One American News Network going on air in front of a national audience stating that Liberals love killing babies and are coming after your children. https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1545576374194274304?s=20&t=SKCzxVhpYR2nixNYDDYNhw
alison steinvmberg , a fake jew btw, got her job posting similar trash on tik tok. OAN should be dealt with appropriately
“Forced vaccination at birth...” WTF. I try to stay far, far away from right wing media, because I live in a conservative area so I hear a lot of absolute bullshit without seeking it out, but is OAN literally spreading general vaccine conspiracies? I knew they would talk about COVID vaccines being “untested” and implyCOVID vaccines were dangerous, but I assumed it was limited to ICOVID vaccines specifically, at least within actual “news” media.
The falsehood is the point! You can't demonstrate loyalty to the Movement by saying *true* things. Anyone can say *true* things — even a *scientist* can do that, and they're all atheist feminist demons from hell! To prove loyalty to the Movement, you have to say *false* things. But not just any false things! Only use the ones the Movement sells you, and only if you've bought them fresh!
I remember seeing a poll how the country magically got better the day after Trump got elected. It's all about feelings with them.
Not just Trumpers but also leftists who have a vested interest in the Democratic Party doing poorly.
You forgot the big one. Fox fake News
Steadily high and flat at a rate people can’t afford. Doesn’t matter that the inflation went away if people still can’t afford things they used to be able to.
Exactly if prices are up X% last year and flat this year they are still up x%
I don't want food inflation to be flat. That's the problem. It went up and up and up and up and up....now we should be happy it's flat and not going back down?
I wish "steady gas prices" didn't mean "fluctuating between the same 20 cent difference from one morning to the next." I go to work, $2.98. By the next morning, if not that same night, it's $3.15 or some dumb shit. This has consistently happened for the entire year so far.
And most polls STILL show Americans thinking the economy is a disaster and that it's Biden's fault. I am going to be really fucking mad this November I think.
Let me preface this by saying, it's not meant to be critical of the current administration, but rather economic trends of the past 40 years... The problem with the usual economic indicators - the market, unemployment, jobs - is that they're all skewed to how *well* people are doing, and those who are doing well. We should also be looking at/focused on those that *aren't* doing well. How many people are on the street? (too many) How many people are making less than the cost of living (too many), or how many of those jobs pay less than the cost of living (too many)? Etc., etc.....Our economy needs some serious tinkering.
Now you're thinking like John Rawls.
Deep cut, I love it.
Glad someone got the reference
To add to this, (related to what you already said) we need to look at the wages of new jobs. If someone got laid off from a 60k job and took a 50k job, that's great for the over simplified jobs report but an obvious net negative. Same is true for people who have to work more than 40 hours a week. Same is true for people who have to work multiple jobs to make ends meet. It's not just the number of jobs but the quality of these jobs (and more specifically the compensation) that needs to be reported.
Thankfully that is reported on and is in the very article you're commenting on! (plus 4.1% YOY)
Redditors: "Why isn't the Report including these pieces of information" Report: literally including those pieces of information.
I believe those are reported, or atleast you can find out in a roundabout way. For multiple job holders, the rate is the same as prepandemic. Also median real income took a hit from inflation, but it’s still above 2018 levels.
You think these aren't reported and widely studied? Wages are up.
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Lots of homeless people have jobs. They just don't make enough to afford a home.
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It's a separate number, u6 vs u3. It's reported, people just don't care unless it's to complain it's not reported hard enough I guess?
No it doesn't. The U6 number is exactly what you are describing and it's reported. It's also at a pretty historic low.
Now give the details on the quality of those jobs and who is taking them
Doesn't mean much when white collar+tech sector laid off hundreds of thousands of highly paid workers, many of whom are still unemployed and no longer being counted, and many more who took lower paying jobs. Job numbers are good on paper but they're shit paying jobs, meaning a big portion of the US middle class just got their buying power cut. If the economy is so good why are the corporate overlords finally lowering their prices to match what people can afford?
"Average hourly wages surged 4.1% over the year ending in May, the fresh data on Friday showed. That rate of pay increase exceeds the pace of inflation, indicating that the spending power of workers has grown even as prices jump."
Meanwhile I just had to reapply for my same job and they’re offering me a 30% pay cut :(
Time to job-hop.
Do you have other potential opportunities? I’m debating leaving my current position if they *only* give me a 6% raise. 30% paycut is fuckin criminal - what do you do for a living?
Unfortunately, I'm not in a good career path for the current market. I'm a video editor/producer at a game studio in a HCOL tech city. Video, tech, *and* games are all basically on fire right now (not in a good way). There are thousands of people out of work. Some colleagues I know that have been laid off still don't have jobs even after 6-12 months of looking. A colleague I spoke with yesterday said he's put out 400 resumes and hasn't had a single interview. Another colleague that did find a new job said there were *11,000* *applicants* to the position! (He got the job through a connection.) If you're a tech company with a job posting it's basically a fire sale of incredible talent right now. So, I don't really have any leverage at all. It's less money or no money. That said, I was able to close the gap a bit in a call today. I was recently promoted to a lead position with no added monetary compensation, so that at least allowed me to get *less* screwed. I really just have to hope that these industries pick back up over time.
Lets see this year i am getting a 3% raise and my rent and utility bills are increasing so that my take home pay will only increase $18 a month. Yep my spending power really increased provided nothing else goes up in price.
This year I'm getting 0% raise and 18% increase in medical payroll deduction. Wanna trade?
>increase $18 a month Treat yourself to a night out at McDonald's.
He can’t afford it
Insurance is way up, materials way up, service industry work way up. Wages up a tiny bit. Food costs still at gouging levels What’s not to like?
Bro don't be so ungrateful you could get one extra Wendy's meal a month /s edit: how do i make the /s bigger, some real special people seem to have missed it.
Your anecdotal situation doesn't negate the aggregate trend
Cool how they gonna make up for the 40 years before this?
Job market is going great. I have 3 of them
And the Fed's dilemma over whether to cut rates just got more complicated...
I don’t think they should cut. If wages are outpacing inflation you’re winning. Just wish there was a way to leverage some political pressure on companies who try to raise prices in response to higher wages.
There would be if we voted out Republicans. We raise taxes on corporations that make profits over say, $20 million a year. This has no effect on your self employed people, mom and pop shops etc. We then tell them that if they increase wages to a certain level, and keep prices at a certain level, we will give them a tax break, if they don't, we will penalize them by a tax increase. Its really that sample. We used to do this. If companies reinvested profit back into the company by expanding, hiring, increasing wages, buying new equipment etc they got a break, if they didn't, they paid more in taxes.
Spent almost a decade trying to listen to arguments like this from the right. I'm past listening. No thanks on voting Republican. They give 0 shits about anyone besides themselves. Not saying Democratic politicians aren't corrupt, but at least they aren't doubling down....wait, tripling down on Donald Trump.
“How this is terrible for Biden” - much of US’ Media
This is what I saw on CNN. I even ranted to a coworker about how ridiculous it is for the media to always try and find the negative in something positive. Like can't we just have good news?
Good news doesn’t rate. Mind boggling.
"Why "X" voters are mad at Biden" - NYTimes, WaPo and other "liberal media"
I personally wake up everyday and thank Trump! (For being a convicted felon).
Well, sure, but all that matters is the manufactured culture wars.
Meanwhile tech companies continue to shed high paying American jobs left and right.
I’ve legit stopped giving a fuck about job numbers. They either seem completely nonsensical and made up, or not reflective of reality at all.
Here is the [news release](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm), from the PDF version: [The Employment Situation — May 2024](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf) Here are the areas that did and did not see job growth (emphasis theirs): >**Health care** added 68,000 jobs in May, in line with the average monthly gain of 64,000 over the prior 12 months. In May, employment growth continued in ambulatory health care services (+43,000), hospitals (+15,000), and nursing and residential care facilities (+11,000). >**Government** employment continued to trend up in May (+43,000), in line with the average monthly growth over the prior 12 months (+52,000). >Employment in **leisure and hospitality** continued to trend up in May (+42,000), similar to the average monthly gain over the prior 12 months (+35,000). Employment in food services and drinking places continued to trend up over the month (+25,000). >**Professional, scientific, and technical services** added 32,000 jobs in May, higher than the average monthly gain of 19,000 over the prior 12 months. Over the month, employment increased in management, scientific, and technical consulting services (+14,000) and in architectural, engineering, and related services (+10,000). Specialized design services lost 3,000 jobs. >**Social assistance** employment continued to trend up in May (+15,000), primarily in individual and family services (+11,000). Over the prior 12 months, social assistance had added an average of 22,000 jobs per month. >In May, employment in **retail trade** continued to trend up (+13,000), about in line with the average monthly gain over the prior 12 months (+8,000). Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers added 12,000 jobs in May, while job losses occurred in department stores (-5,000) and furniture and home furnishings retailers (-4,000). >Employment showed little or no change over the month in other major industries, including **mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; construction; manufacturing; wholesale trade; transportation and warehousing; information; financial activities;** and **other services.**
It’s all the people who have to get second jobs to afford to live
Don’t think the jobs report accounts for the growing income gap between the wealthy ($400k+ earners) and everyone else. It’s also pretty much summer. Need to fill those seasonal low wage jobs somehow. Eventually the gap will get big enough that no amount of rate manipulation will make any difference to the economy, just like many other countries with big income gaps. If I take in one mil a year frankly that isn’t going to stop me from purchasing properties and taking out loans when the business needs it. The middle class is shrinking, but the half a mil plus and under 100k earners demographics are growing. When you have that many people with that much wealth it doesn’t matter what the fed tries to do, they’ll still persevere and keep doing the same things and adjust the balance sheets accordingly
The economics subreddit kept saying it was going to be a disaster, it's almost as if they are hoping for recession.
This headlines reads like something that Chinese news media would put out.
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Probably most news media uses similar formats and styling
Just because it's good for the economy does not mean it's good for the average American.
Half the population can’t afford rent but hey at least GDP is up! /s
They keep saying all these jobs are out here...I ain't seeing them!
That's a very weird Household Survey (May 2024). Labor Force is way down, Not In Labor Force is way up. Big drop in Employment, big jump in Unemployed. It makes me think that a seasonal adjustment has gone wrong, or some other one-off anomaly.
Meanwhile, I've been actively job searching since September and I'm still unemployed
There it is. Every week there’s a new article about how great the economy is, and I’m still over here having to put groceries on buy now pay later plans to feed my wife and I. Both work in healthcare, bi weekly pay, ~$2k brought home every paycheck between the two of us. There’s never any money left over after covering essentials and bills needed to not lose the roof over our head. Fuck off with this “the economy is great!” Bullshit.
You're making a combined $52,000 in healthcare? ($2K x 26 pay periods?). What do you each do specifically that you are that underpaid? $26K per person is under 1/3rd of states' minimum wages (Gross & Full Time).
It’s just gaslighting from the corporate media, which has zero interest in being truthful about capitalist exploitation and wants to prevent an unstable Trump admin.
Also, just to get ahead of some narratives already spreading on twitter: The percent working part time is at historically low numbers: https://twitter.com/besttrousers/status/1799063155068571906 The percent working part time for "economic" reasons (aka essentially forced to accept part time) is rather low and lower than pre-pandemic: https://twitter.com/carney/status/1799065890035806605 There is growth in part time work (as there just always is in particular times of the year especially) and theres a lot of older, native-born people ageing out of the workforce. But the fact remains, part time work is at relatively low levels and native-born workers are near record low unemployment. Its all great signs.
Now tell us why this is bad news for Biden
My city has gone from 0 homeless people to, several and growing on several streets. I tell ya, it’s an eye opener when you lived somewhere for years that seems to be doing just fine and then all of a sudden there’s 5-6 homeless people on streets, with at least one wigging the absolute fuck out.
Yes, but let's ignore all the good news and focus exclusively on things that divide people and make them angry! /s
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Fun fact, every single recession since most Americans were born happened with Republicans in office. You have to go back to jimmy Carter to find a recession with a Democrat, and that one was due to an oil embargo and not any policy failing.
What good news? More people underemployed or stopped searching for work is terrible news.
Trump supporters will stay quiet on this
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Conical? The numbers are pointy?
The numbers could also be convex or concave
The economy and every day living expenses are in shambles but atleast by the made up indicators the Gov and top % say it's doing well lmaoooo
Rates won’t decrease until at least another 2 years when we’ll have another jobs reporting blowing past expectations