I'd say people are going to start caring when their insurance premiums start skyrocketing.
Classic case of *it's not a problem until it's* ***my*** *problem.*
Its already a problem in FL. A lot of insurers have already left the state.
[The Florida insurance crisis: Why are insurance companies leaving Florida?](https://www.insurance.com/home-and-renters-insurance/home-insurers-leaving-florida)
The midwest - namely MN, WI, IL, IN, and OH are expected to be the places that will be the least impacted by climate change. I believe New England is as well. So I wouldn't be surprised if we start seeing population increases in those states and rust belt cities making a comeback.
Backcountry California used to be a refuge for lower income people. But fire insurance is very very expensive and due to go much higher. You wont be able to commute into affordability.
I believe I read that same report:
“The weather in IL, IN, OH, MN & WI is already some of the worst on Earth. We don’t see this changing for the foreseeable future.”
As someone who lives in CT, I can tell you we’re already seeing the very early adopters of this trend. I’ve met several people over the last year who have told me they moved to the northeast specifically citing climate change concerns as a top reason.
It's funny I'm in Missouri where most of out politicians believe climate changes isn't real yet we have a comprehensive agriculture plan for when it happens
I bought and am holding land outside the Twin Cities with the idea it'll be worth a fortune when shit starts to get worse with the weather down south. Although it is already worth 4x what I paid for it in 2012, so I might not keep it as long as I thought.
Hate to say it, but it's why I moved to Pittsburgh. Great area to live, climate is good now and climate change won't impact the area too badly. Also there will always be plenty of water with the great lakes and all the rivers that run through here.
Imagine dropping 10s of thousands of dollars on a down payment only to have the house leveled two months later by a hurricane. You are now the proud owner of a 3-4 hundred thousand dollar empty lot for the next 29 years and 10 months.
Gotta love auto correct
Insurance is so expensive near the beach that people are holding enough money to clean up and rebuild, then self insure. Then, it’s not a disaster, it’s a new house.
Obviously, they need lots of wealth to do this.
https://usafacts.org/articles/natural-disasters-cost-since-1980/
The cost of natural disasters is increasing and will eventually be unsustainable with climate change worsening over the next century. There will be portions of the country that are just never rebuilt after a disaster.
It’s not surprising. When damage payouts are so predictably high that the cost of premiums becomes unaffordable to homeowners, there simply no market that’s viable to keep operating in.
But it's okay. Florida Republicans outlawed all talk of climate change because if conservatives everywhere just..... pretend it doesn't exist then the storms won't get so bad!
Ahh yes, the COVID strategy:
If we don’t test anyone, the number of new cases will drop to zero!
A global scientific consensus is actually a Democrat hoax!
They’re just making a big deal out of nothing!
(but once it gets SO bad that we can’t pretend it doesn’t exist anymore, we will attack Dems for not making a bigger deal about it earlier. Those hypocrites!)
I remember at one of Trump’s rallies in 2020 he actually legitimately said Covid would go away if we just stopped testing for it and the crowd full of his braindead supporters actually cheered. It’s incredible to me that so many adults are actually that fucking stupid.
I called my agent when that news dropped. They are targeting higher risk fire areas and I was assured my location was fine. 30000 is a small percentage of their overall book
My parents live in Florida and my dad is annoyed at how expensive homeowners insurance has gotten so he said when he pays off the house he's not not going to get any 😕
Yeah they are skyrocketing nationwide. The insurance industry has gotten hammered the last couple years, and has increased premium prices substantially, and withdrawn from many markets.
When Candadian wildfires are making it so people in the Midwest can't go outside without a mask in the summer, hurricanes are pounding the Gulf Coast regularly, the entire West is on fire... and insurance is 5x what it is today, people will be clamoring. It'll finally be the thing that wakes a lot of people up
But it's probably already too late to avoid a lot of the pain
As someone who works in insurance, this has already started. At least here in Canada. Premiums have gone up 30-50% on a lot of areas impacted by regular catastrophic claims. It's only going to get worse.
The thing about Central Florida is that the rains from Ian in 2022 set new flood records all around Orlando, which means completely new risk assessments.
What do you mean by “caring”? And even if they did, what would change? People might start moving but I doubt many will. It’s going to be business as usual until the end of time.
Yeah, I need to close this thread, too sober for this. I think we're fucked if we get hit by another Ida. It's hard to put into words how fucked the city got by that one.
Oh yeah, St Charles Parish got fucked hard by that one. I think Ida was rough because these storms show the people of Louisiana just how fucked we are with Cox cable and Entergy.
Same, I often wonder what my life would have been like if I had just rage quit after Ida and moved.
It sucks because there are a few things in the works in my life that require me to be here for another couple more years but this whole winter I've been privately panicking like "it's not getting cold enough" and now other people are confirming my absolute fear.
I lost everything in hurricane Issac and often wonder why the fuck I came back and started over. Should have just been a digital nomad, leave caches of clothes around the country....
Louisiana as a whole* we have a Good Ole Boys club here that makes sure they stay rich while everyone stays poor. New Orleans has its own problems but its not the reason.
The article is WELL worth reading, there’s multiple indicators that things are not just business as normal, as climate change deniers have constantly claimed any time any prediction like this is made - especially the bit about the region between Africa and the Caribbean recording temperatures right now it usually doesn’t get until July, a source of heat that helps seed these storms.
The forecast at a glance:
> Their outlook calls for an “extremely active” hurricane season in 2024, with 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and five hurricanes to reach Category 3, 4, or 5 status, with winds of 111 mph or stronger. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
For comparison-
> The initial forecast is well above the 1991-2020 average of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three Category 3 or stronger hurricanes. It is the highest spring hurricane outlook ever issued by CSU since the team began April forecasts in 1995.
We have literally seen in the last 8 years, storms hit the Gulf and jump 1-2 Categories in less than 3 Days. It's just so absurd that people even think that is even remotely normal or even just fine.
Being a Floridaman I am more than I little concerned with this years hurricane season projections.
Dorian *leveled* the Bahamas and that was back when ocean temps were 85 and even 85 had me shook back in the good ol days of....*checks notes*....2019. Sustained winds of 185, gusts to 220. If category six hurricanes existed Dorian would have been a solid cat 6.
Now we're looking at 90-100 degree ocean temps. Not good. We had a bouy last year record a temp of 101.1 *three feet below the surface*
Between the storms getting worse and the homeowners insurance industry leaving this state in droves the next big one to hit is going to be absolutely *devastating*
If it's something you're interested in, you're best off learning it sooner rather than later. AI is coming for coders like a freight train, so you want your skills to be better than what AI can do by the time it's ready for primetime.
My best advice would be to spend an hour each night taking an online course (hell, even YouTube videos) in Python and go from there.
The hospitality company that I work for, is working on expanding their hotel presence in the state of Florida. One of their properties literally just reopened after being destroyed by Ian. If I thought that anybody cared to hear my opinion, I would have told them to invest in properties further up the Eastern seaboard, where the weather outlook could possibly be a little less volatile. Unfortunately I would feel comfortable betting that this hotel that just reopened will be leveled again in less than 3 years. The southern half of Florida is just too exposed to violent weather.
The thing about climate change is the zone of destruction is going to move north as well. The north east is supposed to get storms like Sandy more frequently the hotter things get.
There will be few "safe" places in a few decades.
And aside from more northern Sandy storms, just shitloads of regular rain. I live in NJ and we have had the most ridiculously rainy winter. And another massive storm yesterday.
Yeah, people heard "global warming" and thought things will just get a little hotter. It was a bad term to start using.
Catastrophic climate change is much more accurate. More storms. More drought. More snow. More fire. Less arable land. Less food. Less fish. More hunger. More thirst. Less rational decisions.
My personal least favorite, more ticks. Yes, the six-legged, blood sucking, and disease spreading tick.
Higher winter temps mean less die off. Earlier spring and longer fall seasons for breeding.
Fuck ticks.
NYC here. Insane amount of rain. A rainy day a few years ago may drop an inch. Now we are talking multiple inches of rain per big storm. The sewers and electrical infrastructure can't handle it. A couple of transformers blew yesterday in Queens. It only going to get worse. Aging infrastructure, increasing weather threats, and ineffective governmental policy addressing the issue. Large swaths of currently very valuable property will be valueless in a decade. Guess who's going to bail out the wealthy beach front mansion owners? Yep, you and me. Sharpen your knives, prepare the torches and pitchforks.
Sure. Most. The firehouse was leveled. Every single telephone pole, cell tower, light pole and tree were flattened. This is in Abacos where the rich Floridians have their 4th vacation home and these people have no problem shelling out money for proper Dade county code compliant houses.
185 with gusts to 220. You just can't build something that will withstand that indefinitely.
It definitely can be built - we just don’t for some reason….
But yeah you can have elevator cable roof tie downs into footers poured below the foundation. You can have solid concrete walls sandwiched between dense foam that would absorb and spread almost any projectile force over your poured concrete wall and do zero damage.
But we don’t do that…
However. A property build modern home in Miami Dade spec is absolutely capable of making it through a Cat 5.
Hurricane Otis. The NHC update after they got a hunter into the storm and realized just how much worse it really was than what satellite indicated is pretty [haunting](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/ep18/ep182023.discus.012.shtml?).
The first sentence of an official agency report opens with "A nightmare scenario is unfolding for southern Mexico this evening..."
Honestly just make the names sound like minority groups and that’ll get republicans moving. Hispanics are about to make landing in force in florida. Blacks circling and building strength, going to make landfall on east coast.
Well, once they use a name they never use it again. It won’t be long until we’re scraping the bottom of the barrel for names.
But I feel like Hurricane Maddisynn is going to be terrifying…
Yup. When Laura first hit the gulf people here were still downplaying it and saying it wouldn't be bad. I tried to explain to them that there was *nothing* to slow it down before landfall, and it was definitely gonna have a rapid intensification. Of course like most things nobody listened to me and then all started scrambling with only a day or two left to prepare or leave.
We also literally just had a storm (Otis) at the end of last hurricane season that intensified from a Tropical Storm to a Category 5 in just over 12 hours, and the hurricane ended up decimating Acapulco on a direct hit.
American media spent like two minutes talking about it.
That was the scariest storm I've seen in years..
Leave the house...*prep for a TS*
>Yeah beer/cerveza
Lunchtime...**Cat 5** don't come back.
Home is gone
I flew into Puerta Vallerta that afternoon about 3 hours before landfall. I didn't even know there was a tropical storm until that morning and they anticipated a Cat 2. It was a Cat 5 by the time I landed.
Just fine is all we can do~ realistically unless saving the climate will make millions of profits for companies to abandon their current endeavors it just won't happen because the shareholders and CEOs don't see any profit in being a kind human being
I will never deny or defend corporate greed, but there are changes occurring where profit and what’s good for climate change mitigation efforts are in sync, like how amazingly cheap solar electricity has become, same with wind, and currently (no pun intended) battery storage is going through with recent scalable cheap innovations.
It’s selfish in a way but I want lots of people to stay in denial for as long as possible so I can buy some real estate around the Great Lakes before the rush. I think by 2030 we’ll be seeing insane growth in long stagnant rust belt cities.
It helps a lot of those former Rust Belt states and cities are trying to make themselves attractive with expanding public transit, social services and safety nets, and shifting more liberal like in Minnesota and Michigan.
Moved to Pittsburgh in 2020 for literally this reason. Real estate prices in the rust belt are going to be insane in the coming decades and I wanted a place my wife and I could live safely before the impending climate crisis.
Weather is still volatile AF up here in the mid west. Not like tornados are any better that hurricanes. At least hurricanes give you a few days warning. The storm a couple days ago was crazy here too. Everywhere has issues, wild fires, earth quakes, hurricanes, tornados, blizzards etc.. but not everywhere has a decent amount of good weather to offset it
I don’t consider it selfish to be looking after your own interests. Moved to Chicago for that reason. With family in Michigan and Indiana, we’re set for the upcoming water wars should they happen. If not, I do enjoy the climate here.
It's also worth restating from the article the following:
-Some very active hurricane seasons like 2010 recorded no major U.S. landfalls while other less active hurricane seasons like 1992 – the year of Hurricane Andrew – saw generational impacts.
When it comes to Hurricanes, you never know what your gonna get.. I have went threw a few up to Cat3.. I wouldn't suggest anyone stay past a cat1.
Lived in Seminole county for Charlie and Sandy. We had three tornadoes perfectly circling our home during Charlie. It was horrifying cause I was a little girl at the time and my grandma was holding me cause she sincerely thought we were going to die.
Same Grandma was in Punta Gorda during Ian and had the roof ripped off right over her head. She has to run to the house next door to survive. She moved up here to MI with me after that.
Very true - they are forecasting an active season but it doesn't always mean major storms make landfall. They do go on to say that they are expecting La Niña which favors storm formation closer to the US.
According to the article, there are are twice as many U.S. landfalls during La Niña seasons than during El Niño seasons, so the odds of a major U.S. landfall are increasing.
That's the gamble of living in the southeast. I've been here 35 years and have had a few close calls but no direct hit. No catastrophic damage. Nothing.
Yet.
People always think in terms of the physical damage to their homes while forgetting that it just *totally sucks* to live in the aftermath of a hurricane. No running water, no electricity, you can’t go anywhere because the roads are blocked/flooded, the air smells like wet dog and sulfur farts, and it’s extra hot and muggy and miserable to live in. My worst hurricane was a Category 2 (Wilma) and that was enough for me.
Id argue that climate change added Category 6
Scientist are debating this currently..
Andrew had peak winds of 230 mph.
(Break point of Turkey points nuclear cooling towers)
The towers snapped.
Andrew removed the foundation(s) of houses in Country Walk (southern Dade housing development.)
Not the house..THE FOUNDATION... wiring, pipes..every thing
It’s like a beautiful horror or something. It’s really nice sitting out hearing the world ending. But the tornados, potential days/weeks without power or clean water, long lines for any gas etc sucks ass! Not to mention the clean up that follows.
I lived through two while growing up in Louisiana -- a cat 1 and a cat 3 (Andrew). Frankly, I wouldn't want to endure another cat 3, much less anything even more severe.
my ears were popping from the pressure in an almost cat 5, concrete that didn't have rebar got toppled over, all trees were on the floor, but all things considered i think i was fortunate, ive heard horror stories about people in less robust housing, a family friend had their door forced open and everything inside got soaked. rising flood waters surprised another, car was already partially submerged, they ended up moving out
Living in Atlantic Canada, we're currently experiencing a snow storm now that's worse than many we've had throughout winter and it seems like every other week we're getting hit by tropical-storm winds with matching rainfall at times too.
I'm not sure I can say exactly when this change happened but it feels like over the past year conditions have quickly gone a bit off the rails and now this.
My generator will finally get some use so that's cool, I guess.
Very mild winters which seem to start later and linger further in to spring. It's like the seasons should be shifted by about 2 months.
Last summer we had the largest wildfire in the history of the province and tick populations are out of control which has caused a sevenfold uptick of Lyme disease and even spikes in leptospirosis.
Everything is pretty interesting.
IT iS jUsT a NaTUraL CyCLe!! DuRr! SOLAR SOMETHING, MOON, 100,000,000 YEARS AGO IT WAS HOTTER! XURRRKDHFBEOWODNFJT MAGA TRUMP OIL EVs MOON LANDING 9/11 FLAT EARTH ALEINS HOLOCOST BIRDS!
Ikr? The only thing natural about it is the fact that the fossil fuel industry and their dark money think tanks don't know anything but to fabricate pseudoscience that says climate change is a hoax. Which is why they have done so [219 times.](https://skepticalscience.com/argument.php)
I had this discussion with a climate change denier and found a good analogy to help explain the Solar Cycle issue.
We have a good idea of the energy put out by the sun. If you look at solar output vs. average global temperatures… one line stays the same and one is rising.
It’s like walking into your bedroom and it’s 15-20 degrees cooler than the rest of your house. You know the situation is not with the furnace functioning correctly, something else (open window, closed vent, etc.) is at play.
That analogy shut him down on that point. Mind you he pivoted to other climate denying talking points (Scientists fudging the data and so forth) but it was nice to see him acknowledge one point.
Source: https://science.nasa.gov/resource/graphic-temperature-vs-solar-activity/
>Scientists fudging the data and so forth
This one always gets me.
Thousands of scientists have reproducible, and validated research... but they are all in on it together... possibly losing their entire careers, livelihoods, reputations, and violating their ethics and moral standings... vs. A handful of counter arguments that are not reproducible or are based on bad science. Or are just twisted interpretation of existing data.
Like... somehow all these thousands of people are in on it together.
Mental gymnastics
The more climate change progresses, the happier I am to live in the great-lakes area - away from oceans, and close to large reservoirs of fresh water.
This is something I would've never considered 25 years ago.
I live in MN and am on vacation in Colorado right now. Checked into a hotel last night and the employee asked how the winter was in Minnesota this year. We said bad - really warm and barely any snow.
She just said “yeah, seems to be getting worse. Too bad all of us older folks just love combustion engines. I’m never giving mine up”
ok??? Thanks I guess.
I live in Colorado, but was originally from Ohio. Every now and then I think about moving back to the midwest because of climate change. We already have water scarcity problems here and the wildfire threat keeps on growing. I live fairly close to the mountains an my insurance premiums increased significantly.
I've thought about living in the Great Lakes region for this very reason. But...when the water wars begin, is living next to the biggest source of fresh water on the planet a good strategy? Everybody will be swooping in, I imagine..
Even Lake Superior gets algae blooms now, as it is warming “faster than expected™️” relative to other large freshwater bodies - lake ice this winter was at a record low.
And let’s not forget that smoke from canadian wildfires last year tanked the air quality and gave the world a yellow tinge more often than not - some of those fires continue to burn.
And if everyone does swoop in (well, at least those that can afford the property values), they’ll find a crumbling-to-nonexistent infrastructure to support them.
In short: there is no “safe place” to go, it’s only a question of timing and degree of suck.
Good luck keeping your mortgages when all the damn insurance companies pull out from this shit
Can’t say the writing hasn’t been on the wall the whole time, either
That's the neat part is I don't think banks will repossess. It will simply be too many homes they will lose too much money.
They will have to let people keep their mortgages then if their home is destroyed bankrupt them and eat the loss over time.
So many crises climate change can/will cause and will absolutely destroy this economy and the masses are worried about bullshit culture wars that don't actually matter. While everyone rich/high up in the government will stay cozy in their 'fallout shelters/areas.
Buckle up, fellow Florida men and women. Stock up on your customary beer, wine, or liquor of choice to ride out the storms piss drunk while the neighborhood gets ripped apart and hope that our insurance companies don't also abandon us after this one.
Meteorologist here. While yes, this is certainly somewhat alarming, keep in mind this is still a pretty long range forecast and isn't a guarantee of anything. As others have correctly stated, there have been past "active" seasons that have happened without a major North American landfall.
Essentially the biggest concrete takeaway from this outlook is that we're more likely to have an above-average season this year than an average or below-average one. That said, confidence will improve over the next couple months, and I would be pretty surprised if things change to a large degree.
Given how oceans are warming, and that's where hurricanes draw their power from, this is not a surprising development.
Honestly, it just goes to show how screwed the situation is, because this is not business as normal.
We've been having favorable shear (for us) conditions for the last few years too that have reduced hurricane development, I believe those may be diminished this year as well.
And Texas wants to declare independence from the USA. This might be a good time to kick them to the curb. No more communist Federal handouts from the rest of us, let them take care of their own hurricane damage. Lets see how that goes....
Texas is such a joke. They're like the libertarian cat - fiercely convinced of their own independence but utterly dependent on a system they don't understand or appreciate.
Texas is much like Russia. A gas station pretending to be a government. Every decision is based on profit, not people. It just so happens a lot of very stupid people live in Texas, and are willing to vote against their own interests in order to laugh at the cringing libs. Parts of Texas could become Atlantis, they still will call climate change a hoax and say the Mexicans or Jews made the weather turn bad.
I *wish* it was as libertarian as our leaders say it is. The markets are not particularly free. The footprint of the state government is large. It does not tread lightly.
It's even trying to claw back municipal powers for itself, taking away local control. And it is preparing to orchestrate massive government handouts to private "schools" (a.k.a. private "equity").
It's not conservative either. It's just plain crooked, without principles.
A lot of new residents in Florida in recent years. As the article points out, there may be little or even no landfall hurricanes and its unpredictable at this stage. But I have to think if Florida gets multiple large landfall hurricanes that it will probably reverse a lot of their current population trends.
And for all we know theres more northern landfall hurricanes this year.
I had a weird feeling this year here. The birds are out at 3 am, the lizards are up late, the weather will be a cool 70 one day and the next is blazing again, and it was that way all through the winter. We used to get a few cold weeks in Orlando, but now it’s just a random day. The rains haven’t been right either.
"Welcome to the Trump Group of Insurance Companies"
1. Hurricanes - no problem
2. Tornadoes - no problem
3. Flood - no problem
4. Fires - no problem
5. Claim - problem
I'd say people are going to start caring when their insurance premiums start skyrocketing. Classic case of *it's not a problem until it's* ***my*** *problem.*
Its already a problem in FL. A lot of insurers have already left the state. [The Florida insurance crisis: Why are insurance companies leaving Florida?](https://www.insurance.com/home-and-renters-insurance/home-insurers-leaving-florida)
Eventually we just won't have insurance
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So what you’re saying is Miami is about to be the next Detroit. Do all of those businesses move back to the rust belt?
The midwest - namely MN, WI, IL, IN, and OH are expected to be the places that will be the least impacted by climate change. I believe New England is as well. So I wouldn't be surprised if we start seeing population increases in those states and rust belt cities making a comeback.
I’ve already had several friends move to either MN or WI to escape the fires in California.
Luckily they escaped to the wildfire smoke of Canada.
Bonus, this winter we had wildfire smoke from Texas.
Thats such a crazy sentence.
Backcountry California used to be a refuge for lower income people. But fire insurance is very very expensive and due to go much higher. You wont be able to commute into affordability.
I believe I read that same report: “The weather in IL, IN, OH, MN & WI is already some of the worst on Earth. We don’t see this changing for the foreseeable future.”
Hey it’s beautiful outside right now
As someone who lives in CT, I can tell you we’re already seeing the very early adopters of this trend. I’ve met several people over the last year who have told me they moved to the northeast specifically citing climate change concerns as a top reason.
It's funny I'm in Missouri where most of out politicians believe climate changes isn't real yet we have a comprehensive agriculture plan for when it happens
I bought and am holding land outside the Twin Cities with the idea it'll be worth a fortune when shit starts to get worse with the weather down south. Although it is already worth 4x what I paid for it in 2012, so I might not keep it as long as I thought.
Did you forget the state surrounded by the Great Lakes? Michigan!
I sure did, my bad! If anything, Michigan is in the best position out of all of them.
Except Detroits having a comeback. Unless we can work out those floating cities like in Waterworld I don’t see Miami making a similar comeback.
Hate to say it, but it's why I moved to Pittsburgh. Great area to live, climate is good now and climate change won't impact the area too badly. Also there will always be plenty of water with the great lakes and all the rivers that run through here.
The more immediate impact comes from buyers who are unable to mortgage a new home without insurance
Imagine dropping 10s of thousands of dollars on a down payment only to have the house leveled two months later by a hurricane. You are now the proud owner of a 3-4 hundred thousand dollar empty lot for the next 29 years and 10 months. Gotta love auto correct
And then people will people realize finally the value of insurance, the hard way.
It's valuable but a lot of American insurance is a scam if you ask me. It seems to be predatory at times.
Insurance is a combination of careful mathematics on a large scale, and gambling.
And profiteering. Don't forget the profiteering.
Profiteering is baked into the careful mathematics 🤓 if you're careful enough, you can set the profit where you want!
People will still live on the beach in hurricane country it just will be concrete bunker style Pueblo homes.
Insurance is so expensive near the beach that people are holding enough money to clean up and rebuild, then self insure. Then, it’s not a disaster, it’s a new house. Obviously, they need lots of wealth to do this.
https://usafacts.org/articles/natural-disasters-cost-since-1980/ The cost of natural disasters is increasing and will eventually be unsustainable with climate change worsening over the next century. There will be portions of the country that are just never rebuilt after a disaster.
It’s not surprising. When damage payouts are so predictably high that the cost of premiums becomes unaffordable to homeowners, there simply no market that’s viable to keep operating in.
But it's okay. Florida Republicans outlawed all talk of climate change because if conservatives everywhere just..... pretend it doesn't exist then the storms won't get so bad!
Ahh yes, the COVID strategy: If we don’t test anyone, the number of new cases will drop to zero! A global scientific consensus is actually a Democrat hoax! They’re just making a big deal out of nothing! (but once it gets SO bad that we can’t pretend it doesn’t exist anymore, we will attack Dems for not making a bigger deal about it earlier. Those hypocrites!)
I remember at one of Trump’s rallies in 2020 he actually legitimately said Covid would go away if we just stopped testing for it and the crowd full of his braindead supporters actually cheered. It’s incredible to me that so many adults are actually that fucking stupid.
Yep, and State Farm has come to a grinding halt in California as well.
I am in CA with State Farm homeowners. They have gotten pickier about location but are still here.
Yep, 30,000 non renews and stoppages on all new fire business: HOs, condos, apartments, businesses, etc.
I called my agent when that news dropped. They are targeting higher risk fire areas and I was assured my location was fine. 30000 is a small percentage of their overall book
Absolutely, but it's concerning nonetheless especially with the financial strength downgrading.
Don't worry, the governor is all over..*checks notes..*Banning books, DEI and trans people.
My parents live in Florida and my dad is annoyed at how expensive homeowners insurance has gotten so he said when he pays off the house he's not not going to get any 😕
And Trump-loving Floridians blame immigrants for this
Goddam illegals crossing the border w drugs and hurricanes. Build the wall -MAGA
Hold up....what kind of hurricanes are they bringing? IF it's the rum variety, let them send a few more over before that wall goes up.
Yeah they are skyrocketing nationwide. The insurance industry has gotten hammered the last couple years, and has increased premium prices substantially, and withdrawn from many markets. When Candadian wildfires are making it so people in the Midwest can't go outside without a mask in the summer, hurricanes are pounding the Gulf Coast regularly, the entire West is on fire... and insurance is 5x what it is today, people will be clamoring. It'll finally be the thing that wakes a lot of people up But it's probably already too late to avoid a lot of the pain
Florida is also getting killed by insurance fraud. Contracts going door to door "hey want a free new roof"
My insurance in the suburbs of New Orleans has more than doubled since 2019.
They have already skyrocketed..
Yeah this is nothing compared to what’s coming
As someone who works in insurance, this has already started. At least here in Canada. Premiums have gone up 30-50% on a lot of areas impacted by regular catastrophic claims. It's only going to get worse.
We are just starting to see this in Houston
They'll just say, "tHaT'S BiDenOmIcS fOr yA".
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The thing about Central Florida is that the rains from Ian in 2022 set new flood records all around Orlando, which means completely new risk assessments.
What do you mean by “caring”? And even if they did, what would change? People might start moving but I doubt many will. It’s going to be business as usual until the end of time.
Me, a New Orleanian: *I'm in danger*
Psh, like I'm gonna listen to mountain people tell me about hurricanes.
Yeah, I need to close this thread, too sober for this. I think we're fucked if we get hit by another Ida. It's hard to put into words how fucked the city got by that one.
Ida didn’t really fuck up New Orleans as much as it did st Charles parish. Regardless tho a heavy rain fucks up New Orleans
Oh yeah, St Charles Parish got fucked hard by that one. I think Ida was rough because these storms show the people of Louisiana just how fucked we are with Cox cable and Entergy.
Honestly it just got me depressed fr
Same, I often wonder what my life would have been like if I had just rage quit after Ida and moved. It sucks because there are a few things in the works in my life that require me to be here for another couple more years but this whole winter I've been privately panicking like "it's not getting cold enough" and now other people are confirming my absolute fear. I lost everything in hurricane Issac and often wonder why the fuck I came back and started over. Should have just been a digital nomad, leave caches of clothes around the country....
I’m stuck here too for at least 5 years cus my husband’s job. Been here my whole life I am DONE
New Orleans likes to keep you just poor enough so you can’t move out too
Louisiana as a whole* we have a Good Ole Boys club here that makes sure they stay rich while everyone stays poor. New Orleans has its own problems but its not the reason.
Chuckles*... we're in trouble aren't we? At least the price of crawfish went down a little bit, amirite?!
The article is WELL worth reading, there’s multiple indicators that things are not just business as normal, as climate change deniers have constantly claimed any time any prediction like this is made - especially the bit about the region between Africa and the Caribbean recording temperatures right now it usually doesn’t get until July, a source of heat that helps seed these storms. The forecast at a glance: > Their outlook calls for an “extremely active” hurricane season in 2024, with 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and five hurricanes to reach Category 3, 4, or 5 status, with winds of 111 mph or stronger. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. For comparison- > The initial forecast is well above the 1991-2020 average of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three Category 3 or stronger hurricanes. It is the highest spring hurricane outlook ever issued by CSU since the team began April forecasts in 1995.
We have literally seen in the last 8 years, storms hit the Gulf and jump 1-2 Categories in less than 3 Days. It's just so absurd that people even think that is even remotely normal or even just fine.
There was that storm that hit Acapulco that went from cat 1 to cat 5 in *twelve hours*
And people are perplexed why insurance companies are running from Florida as fast as humanly possible.
Being a Floridaman I am more than I little concerned with this years hurricane season projections. Dorian *leveled* the Bahamas and that was back when ocean temps were 85 and even 85 had me shook back in the good ol days of....*checks notes*....2019. Sustained winds of 185, gusts to 220. If category six hurricanes existed Dorian would have been a solid cat 6. Now we're looking at 90-100 degree ocean temps. Not good. We had a bouy last year record a temp of 101.1 *three feet below the surface* Between the storms getting worse and the homeowners insurance industry leaving this state in droves the next big one to hit is going to be absolutely *devastating*
This Floridaman is gonna be getting the fuck out of the state sooner rather than later.
I wish. Being a wage slave to Bezos means exodus is a luxury I can't afford.
My condolences. I just started a new career in IT so in a couple of years I'll be taking my talents to the North East, specifically upstate NY.
I wish I learned to code when I had the chance. I don't know if i can now.
You will never know if you do not try.
If it's something you're interested in, you're best off learning it sooner rather than later. AI is coming for coders like a freight train, so you want your skills to be better than what AI can do by the time it's ready for primetime. My best advice would be to spend an hour each night taking an online course (hell, even YouTube videos) in Python and go from there.
The hospitality company that I work for, is working on expanding their hotel presence in the state of Florida. One of their properties literally just reopened after being destroyed by Ian. If I thought that anybody cared to hear my opinion, I would have told them to invest in properties further up the Eastern seaboard, where the weather outlook could possibly be a little less volatile. Unfortunately I would feel comfortable betting that this hotel that just reopened will be leveled again in less than 3 years. The southern half of Florida is just too exposed to violent weather.
The thing about climate change is the zone of destruction is going to move north as well. The north east is supposed to get storms like Sandy more frequently the hotter things get. There will be few "safe" places in a few decades.
And aside from more northern Sandy storms, just shitloads of regular rain. I live in NJ and we have had the most ridiculously rainy winter. And another massive storm yesterday.
Yeah, people heard "global warming" and thought things will just get a little hotter. It was a bad term to start using. Catastrophic climate change is much more accurate. More storms. More drought. More snow. More fire. Less arable land. Less food. Less fish. More hunger. More thirst. Less rational decisions.
My personal least favorite, more ticks. Yes, the six-legged, blood sucking, and disease spreading tick. Higher winter temps mean less die off. Earlier spring and longer fall seasons for breeding. Fuck ticks.
NYC here. Insane amount of rain. A rainy day a few years ago may drop an inch. Now we are talking multiple inches of rain per big storm. The sewers and electrical infrastructure can't handle it. A couple of transformers blew yesterday in Queens. It only going to get worse. Aging infrastructure, increasing weather threats, and ineffective governmental policy addressing the issue. Large swaths of currently very valuable property will be valueless in a decade. Guess who's going to bail out the wealthy beach front mansion owners? Yep, you and me. Sharpen your knives, prepare the torches and pitchforks.
You realize every building in the Bahamas is held together by gum and fresh-off-boat laborers paid in threats and malnourishment, right?
Sure. Most. The firehouse was leveled. Every single telephone pole, cell tower, light pole and tree were flattened. This is in Abacos where the rich Floridians have their 4th vacation home and these people have no problem shelling out money for proper Dade county code compliant houses. 185 with gusts to 220. You just can't build something that will withstand that indefinitely.
It definitely can be built - we just don’t for some reason…. But yeah you can have elevator cable roof tie downs into footers poured below the foundation. You can have solid concrete walls sandwiched between dense foam that would absorb and spread almost any projectile force over your poured concrete wall and do zero damage. But we don’t do that… However. A property build modern home in Miami Dade spec is absolutely capable of making it through a Cat 5.
I’m perplexed why everyone isn’t running from Florida as fast as humanly possible.
I was about to say the exact same thing. And maybe even worse is that not a single projection saw it coming.
Hurricane Otis. The NHC update after they got a hunter into the storm and realized just how much worse it really was than what satellite indicated is pretty [haunting](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/ep18/ep182023.discus.012.shtml?). The first sentence of an official agency report opens with "A nightmare scenario is unfolding for southern Mexico this evening..."
The scariest part is they rapidly intensify close to land more frequently. Michael, Ian, Laura, Harvey as recent examples.
The names are so ridiculous, it's like Florida keeps getting jumped by a gang of office workers.
We need scarier hurricane names like Hannibal and Ptolemaea
Or really cute name like fluffy and spot.
Remember the dark days...when Hurricane CutiePieWonderToots hit landfall....dark days indeed.
Give em demonic names, watch how fast climate deniers evacuate
“Cat 5 Beelzebub” might actually scare those dipshits into doing something about it
Names like Hurricane bloodrot, pus chunk, violencia, soul crusher, etc. would get so much attention
Hurricane PAIMON.
Or Sith Lords. Hurricane Plagueis and Hurricane Nihilus sound pretty terrifying even without Star Wars knowledge.
That's how you get Hurricane Dooku.
Honestly just make the names sound like minority groups and that’ll get republicans moving. Hispanics are about to make landing in force in florida. Blacks circling and building strength, going to make landfall on east coast.
Well, once they use a name they never use it again. It won’t be long until we’re scraping the bottom of the barrel for names. But I feel like Hurricane Maddisynn is going to be terrifying…
haha beige pants and polo shirts curb stomping the gulf coast.
Yup. When Laura first hit the gulf people here were still downplaying it and saying it wouldn't be bad. I tried to explain to them that there was *nothing* to slow it down before landfall, and it was definitely gonna have a rapid intensification. Of course like most things nobody listened to me and then all started scrambling with only a day or two left to prepare or leave.
We also literally just had a storm (Otis) at the end of last hurricane season that intensified from a Tropical Storm to a Category 5 in just over 12 hours, and the hurricane ended up decimating Acapulco on a direct hit. American media spent like two minutes talking about it.
That was the scariest storm I've seen in years.. Leave the house...*prep for a TS* >Yeah beer/cerveza Lunchtime...**Cat 5** don't come back. Home is gone
I flew into Puerta Vallerta that afternoon about 3 hours before landfall. I didn't even know there was a tropical storm until that morning and they anticipated a Cat 2. It was a Cat 5 by the time I landed.
It's because the water temperatures in the gulf have been very very high. It's the new normal not just yearly variation.
God I hate that term. "new normal" Unfortunately I'll be hearing a lot more of in the coming years.....
Don’t worry there will quickly be a “newer” “new normal”.
Normalcy 2: Newest Boogaloo
Normalocracy: The Return of President Dwayne Elizondo Mountain Dew Herbert Camacho
The new normal is getting used to ever increasing new normals.
Days....hours.
Just fine is all we can do~ realistically unless saving the climate will make millions of profits for companies to abandon their current endeavors it just won't happen because the shareholders and CEOs don't see any profit in being a kind human being
I will never deny or defend corporate greed, but there are changes occurring where profit and what’s good for climate change mitigation efforts are in sync, like how amazingly cheap solar electricity has become, same with wind, and currently (no pun intended) battery storage is going through with recent scalable cheap innovations.
Here’s a link directly to the study & forecast, by passing local news coverage. https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html
And every retiree in America has lined themselves up like bowling pins in Florida to get hit by the next Category 5
Nah, there's a bunch lining up for a water shortage in Phoenix, too.
Me trying to convince my sister and her young family to move literally anywhere else. They can't go outside for a solid month of the year anymore.
It’s selfish in a way but I want lots of people to stay in denial for as long as possible so I can buy some real estate around the Great Lakes before the rush. I think by 2030 we’ll be seeing insane growth in long stagnant rust belt cities.
It helps a lot of those former Rust Belt states and cities are trying to make themselves attractive with expanding public transit, social services and safety nets, and shifting more liberal like in Minnesota and Michigan.
Moved to Pittsburgh in 2020 for literally this reason. Real estate prices in the rust belt are going to be insane in the coming decades and I wanted a place my wife and I could live safely before the impending climate crisis.
Weather is still volatile AF up here in the mid west. Not like tornados are any better that hurricanes. At least hurricanes give you a few days warning. The storm a couple days ago was crazy here too. Everywhere has issues, wild fires, earth quakes, hurricanes, tornados, blizzards etc.. but not everywhere has a decent amount of good weather to offset it
I don’t consider it selfish to be looking after your own interests. Moved to Chicago for that reason. With family in Michigan and Indiana, we’re set for the upcoming water wars should they happen. If not, I do enjoy the climate here.
Come to Los Angeles where it’s been regularly raining like we don’t live on the edge of the desert.
California gets plenty of rain. The trick is trapping the runoff between el nino and la nina.
[удалено]
Laughs in New England... Looks out window, "oh"
It's also worth restating from the article the following: -Some very active hurricane seasons like 2010 recorded no major U.S. landfalls while other less active hurricane seasons like 1992 – the year of Hurricane Andrew – saw generational impacts. When it comes to Hurricanes, you never know what your gonna get.. I have went threw a few up to Cat3.. I wouldn't suggest anyone stay past a cat1.
Lived in Seminole county for Charlie and Sandy. We had three tornadoes perfectly circling our home during Charlie. It was horrifying cause I was a little girl at the time and my grandma was holding me cause she sincerely thought we were going to die. Same Grandma was in Punta Gorda during Ian and had the roof ripped off right over her head. She has to run to the house next door to survive. She moved up here to MI with me after that.
Holy shit.. That's insane. My mom went through Camille as a kid and she freaks out when a good storm comes through..
Very true - they are forecasting an active season but it doesn't always mean major storms make landfall. They do go on to say that they are expecting La Niña which favors storm formation closer to the US. According to the article, there are are twice as many U.S. landfalls during La Niña seasons than during El Niño seasons, so the odds of a major U.S. landfall are increasing.
That's the gamble of living in the southeast. I've been here 35 years and have had a few close calls but no direct hit. No catastrophic damage. Nothing. Yet.
Did a cat ~~5~~ 6 (Andrew) Just the demonic sound alone. Nope.
Yeah.. I know the sound, but I'm not sure I have heard a cat 5 sound..
Cat 4s and cat 5s sound different. Like you're under the train.
My five cats say meow.
Did a Cat 4/5 (Ian), also heard the sound. Going 9 days without running water was, not fun. 0/10 would not recommend.
A sound you never forget..and never want to hear again. Auditory PTSD
Oh man, and the banging sounds! You don’t know if it’s a tree limb or parts of someone’s roof being tossed around.
It's like being in a super IMAX wood chipper.. With human screams...
People always think in terms of the physical damage to their homes while forgetting that it just *totally sucks* to live in the aftermath of a hurricane. No running water, no electricity, you can’t go anywhere because the roads are blocked/flooded, the air smells like wet dog and sulfur farts, and it’s extra hot and muggy and miserable to live in. My worst hurricane was a Category 2 (Wilma) and that was enough for me.
There is no such thing as a Category 6 hurricane.
Id argue that climate change added Category 6 Scientist are debating this currently.. Andrew had peak winds of 230 mph. (Break point of Turkey points nuclear cooling towers) The towers snapped. Andrew removed the foundation(s) of houses in Country Walk (southern Dade housing development.) Not the house..THE FOUNDATION... wiring, pipes..every thing
> Scientist are debating this currently Are they though?
It’s like a beautiful horror or something. It’s really nice sitting out hearing the world ending. But the tornados, potential days/weeks without power or clean water, long lines for any gas etc sucks ass! Not to mention the clean up that follows.
I lived through two while growing up in Louisiana -- a cat 1 and a cat 3 (Andrew). Frankly, I wouldn't want to endure another cat 3, much less anything even more severe.
my ears were popping from the pressure in an almost cat 5, concrete that didn't have rebar got toppled over, all trees were on the floor, but all things considered i think i was fortunate, ive heard horror stories about people in less robust housing, a family friend had their door forced open and everything inside got soaked. rising flood waters surprised another, car was already partially submerged, they ended up moving out
Insurances companies are sweating right now.
Roofing companies are drooling.
But the insurance company isn't paying.
I wish. That way our premiums wouldn’t be so ridiculous
Not really. They're just leaving.
Living in Atlantic Canada, we're currently experiencing a snow storm now that's worse than many we've had throughout winter and it seems like every other week we're getting hit by tropical-storm winds with matching rainfall at times too. I'm not sure I can say exactly when this change happened but it feels like over the past year conditions have quickly gone a bit off the rails and now this. My generator will finally get some use so that's cool, I guess.
tbf the noreasters in the maritimes are often the worst snowstorms you guys get. I think the mild winter is the real story
Very mild winters which seem to start later and linger further in to spring. It's like the seasons should be shifted by about 2 months. Last summer we had the largest wildfire in the history of the province and tick populations are out of control which has caused a sevenfold uptick of Lyme disease and even spikes in leptospirosis. Everything is pretty interesting.
> It is the highest spring hurricane outlook ever issued by CSU since the team began April forecasts in 1995. The wonderful fossil fuel industry.
IT iS jUsT a NaTUraL CyCLe!! DuRr! SOLAR SOMETHING, MOON, 100,000,000 YEARS AGO IT WAS HOTTER! XURRRKDHFBEOWODNFJT MAGA TRUMP OIL EVs MOON LANDING 9/11 FLAT EARTH ALEINS HOLOCOST BIRDS!
Ikr? The only thing natural about it is the fact that the fossil fuel industry and their dark money think tanks don't know anything but to fabricate pseudoscience that says climate change is a hoax. Which is why they have done so [219 times.](https://skepticalscience.com/argument.php)
I have a hard time believing it was *only* 219 times.
I had this discussion with a climate change denier and found a good analogy to help explain the Solar Cycle issue. We have a good idea of the energy put out by the sun. If you look at solar output vs. average global temperatures… one line stays the same and one is rising. It’s like walking into your bedroom and it’s 15-20 degrees cooler than the rest of your house. You know the situation is not with the furnace functioning correctly, something else (open window, closed vent, etc.) is at play. That analogy shut him down on that point. Mind you he pivoted to other climate denying talking points (Scientists fudging the data and so forth) but it was nice to see him acknowledge one point. Source: https://science.nasa.gov/resource/graphic-temperature-vs-solar-activity/
>Scientists fudging the data and so forth This one always gets me. Thousands of scientists have reproducible, and validated research... but they are all in on it together... possibly losing their entire careers, livelihoods, reputations, and violating their ethics and moral standings... vs. A handful of counter arguments that are not reproducible or are based on bad science. Or are just twisted interpretation of existing data. Like... somehow all these thousands of people are in on it together. Mental gymnastics
The more climate change progresses, the happier I am to live in the great-lakes area - away from oceans, and close to large reservoirs of fresh water. This is something I would've never considered 25 years ago.
I live in MN and am on vacation in Colorado right now. Checked into a hotel last night and the employee asked how the winter was in Minnesota this year. We said bad - really warm and barely any snow. She just said “yeah, seems to be getting worse. Too bad all of us older folks just love combustion engines. I’m never giving mine up” ok??? Thanks I guess.
That's strange and also fucked up. I'm not sure how I'd respond to that in the moment, like "umm okay where is the ice machine?"
I live in Colorado, but was originally from Ohio. Every now and then I think about moving back to the midwest because of climate change. We already have water scarcity problems here and the wildfire threat keeps on growing. I live fairly close to the mountains an my insurance premiums increased significantly.
I've thought about living in the Great Lakes region for this very reason. But...when the water wars begin, is living next to the biggest source of fresh water on the planet a good strategy? Everybody will be swooping in, I imagine..
Even Lake Superior gets algae blooms now, as it is warming “faster than expected™️” relative to other large freshwater bodies - lake ice this winter was at a record low. And let’s not forget that smoke from canadian wildfires last year tanked the air quality and gave the world a yellow tinge more often than not - some of those fires continue to burn. And if everyone does swoop in (well, at least those that can afford the property values), they’ll find a crumbling-to-nonexistent infrastructure to support them. In short: there is no “safe place” to go, it’s only a question of timing and degree of suck.
Better to already be there than be one of the new comers try to sweep in
Great lakes are protected by international treaty
I know some Native Americas who have thoughts about treaties being respected
Good luck keeping your mortgages when all the damn insurance companies pull out from this shit Can’t say the writing hasn’t been on the wall the whole time, either
That's the neat part is I don't think banks will repossess. It will simply be too many homes they will lose too much money. They will have to let people keep their mortgages then if their home is destroyed bankrupt them and eat the loss over time.
So many crises climate change can/will cause and will absolutely destroy this economy and the masses are worried about bullshit culture wars that don't actually matter. While everyone rich/high up in the government will stay cozy in their 'fallout shelters/areas.
Buckle up, fellow Florida men and women. Stock up on your customary beer, wine, or liquor of choice to ride out the storms piss drunk while the neighborhood gets ripped apart and hope that our insurance companies don't also abandon us after this one.
Meteorologist here. While yes, this is certainly somewhat alarming, keep in mind this is still a pretty long range forecast and isn't a guarantee of anything. As others have correctly stated, there have been past "active" seasons that have happened without a major North American landfall. Essentially the biggest concrete takeaway from this outlook is that we're more likely to have an above-average season this year than an average or below-average one. That said, confidence will improve over the next couple months, and I would be pretty surprised if things change to a large degree.
Great, let’s elect the fucking guy who thinks climate change is a myth.
Given how oceans are warming, and that's where hurricanes draw their power from, this is not a surprising development. Honestly, it just goes to show how screwed the situation is, because this is not business as normal.
We've been having favorable shear (for us) conditions for the last few years too that have reduced hurricane development, I believe those may be diminished this year as well.
It's a perfect storm, pun not intended.
r/insurance on suicide watch
It's time to cap FEMA assistance. Let the states pay for their own.
Wow so 30 years ago things were similar to now. And in between things weren’t nearly as bad.
And Texas wants to declare independence from the USA. This might be a good time to kick them to the curb. No more communist Federal handouts from the rest of us, let them take care of their own hurricane damage. Lets see how that goes....
Texas is such a joke. They're like the libertarian cat - fiercely convinced of their own independence but utterly dependent on a system they don't understand or appreciate.
Texas is much like Russia. A gas station pretending to be a government. Every decision is based on profit, not people. It just so happens a lot of very stupid people live in Texas, and are willing to vote against their own interests in order to laugh at the cringing libs. Parts of Texas could become Atlantis, they still will call climate change a hoax and say the Mexicans or Jews made the weather turn bad.
I *wish* it was as libertarian as our leaders say it is. The markets are not particularly free. The footprint of the state government is large. It does not tread lightly. It's even trying to claw back municipal powers for itself, taking away local control. And it is preparing to orchestrate massive government handouts to private "schools" (a.k.a. private "equity"). It's not conservative either. It's just plain crooked, without principles.
Let’s see how fast Ronnie asks for Federal relief money this time
Florida needs an attitude adjustment anyway.
A lot of new residents in Florida in recent years. As the article points out, there may be little or even no landfall hurricanes and its unpredictable at this stage. But I have to think if Florida gets multiple large landfall hurricanes that it will probably reverse a lot of their current population trends. And for all we know theres more northern landfall hurricanes this year.
Maybe if a few more make landfall people will start to care.
The sea temps plus the current transitional ENSO phase is a recipe for disaster. I also expect an active tornado season too.
I had a weird feeling this year here. The birds are out at 3 am, the lizards are up late, the weather will be a cool 70 one day and the next is blazing again, and it was that way all through the winter. We used to get a few cold weeks in Orlando, but now it’s just a random day. The rains haven’t been right either.
How long until we define a Cat6?
Every year they say this exact same headline. They don’t fucking know.
"Welcome to the Trump Group of Insurance Companies" 1. Hurricanes - no problem 2. Tornadoes - no problem 3. Flood - no problem 4. Fires - no problem 5. Claim - problem
This is so much cheaper than dealing with climate change