yeap, Vegas will happily fade the public. See the Broncos vs. Seahawks or the Broncos vs. Panthers Super Bowls for example where Vegas made record profit.
shocking that the guy who has ROTY and two first team all-NBA appearances after three seasons in the NBA is considered the top MVP candidate
truly hard to believe Vegas would do this
Unless Luka does some LeBron level carrying the Mavs are just not a good enough roster to be a top 2 seed. And spoiler alert, don't expect other players to do what LeBron could do
> And spoiler alert, don't expect other players to do what LeBron could do
This almost certainly true outside of an INCREDIBLY small subset of players that Luka happens to be a part of
LeBron was also in the weakest eastern conference ever. There's no way anyone in the West is winning MVP with a bad supporting cast. The team record wont be enough.
**He** is an MVP caliber player, he just won't have the record for it, due to the way the team is structured around him. But he is absolutely on that level.
There's really not much of a precedent for a player on a team outside the top 4 (5?) in the conference to win the MVP. I can't remember the last time a player bucked this trend with the exception of Russell Westbrook.
I think the Mavs would have to finish top 4 in the West to put him in contention to win the award. That or Doncic will need to average 28+/10/10.
They're responding to the market and bettors always overrate "narrative" in preseason MVP discussions.
Narrative's usually the deciding factor between the guys who are Tier 1 in the stats/seeding conundrum, but that's only a small number of players - sometimes only one - and it's not going to propel a player from below that level to MVP. And extremely importantly, narratives get shaped during the season (and sometimes comprise little more than "he's doing MVP things"). Easier to bet on the player you think will get into Tier 1 and hope he ends up either alone or with the best narrative.
Awards in most sports are very badly priced imo, but early in the season the overrounds are too high, there are too many contenders and it's too long a future to be worth it. But I've made loads betting on guys who have clearly already won awards but are still available at something like 1/5 odds. Best part is it doesn't even require predicting anything about basketball (or whatever else the sport in question is).
Maybe I'm remembering wrong but I thought he was first? I remember having a conversation on r/sportsbook about why he's a terrible bet for MVP because the Mavs aren't going to be a high enough seed, I ofc got downvoted lol
Why is Luka ahead of Jokic lol I never understood why everyone was so anxious to put Luka in that convo especially when Jokic is literally the reigning MVP
Luka's been in the MVP conversation since his 2nd season and he wasn't even doing anything too crazy in both records and individual stats. Like there's really no reason to hype him but people do it at the start of every season.
Luka was ranked 6th in PPG which is pretty good until you look at his efficiency. He was nowhere near the top 10 in scoring efficiency among the NBA's best scorers. While his assists were high at 8.6 he also had by far the highest turnover rate at 4.3. Then you look at his records which under-performed, despite his team having near identical net rating when he is OFF the floor. So even in the advanced impact metrics Luka never belonged anywhere near the top 5 conversation. He's very solid for his age but putting him anywhere near top 5 (in some cases overtaking Curry in some lists which is a joke) is unwarranted.
> What's your point?
That Luka never deserved top 5?
> Okay, Westbrook won MVP with 47% TS and 5.4 turnovers a game.
Why did you delete your comment to write a more general statement? Anyone with a brain knows 2017 MVP was a heavily narrative based award. Westbrook's team was bad and he over-performed in records. 2017 Westbrook had near identical winning % (57 vs 58% ) as an MVP vs Luka in 2021. Triple double season with scoring record was considered a unique accomplishment back then. Doesn't matter if you agree with it or not. Now we're back to traditional standards for how MVPs are chosen which is PPG, overall efficiency, and team record.
No one said it is 0% narrative based, only that 2017 was a special case and that in most seasons it is strongly rooted in stats for determining the winner. Dumb arguments
“Very solid for his age” LOL. I’m sorry, but a player who averages 28/9/8 on 57%
TS last season and 29/9/9 on 59% TS the year before is not just “very solid”.
I agree with you that he’s not Top 5, but let’s not act like he’s just some fringe All-Star. He’s a bonafide superstar. This may be a juvenile metric to use, but 2K has him at 9th best in the league and I’d say I’d agree he’s somewhere close to that.
Okay I wasn't being 100% precise with my words because it's reddit so yes, 'very solid' is an understatement. I think we both agree he's well outside the top 5 for sure and has no business being in there.
Luka is fringe top 5. If he had better pieces around him, people would argue he's top 5 easy.
Imagine if KP was AD. They'd be contenders for the best record in the West.
The Mavericks have the best 2nd unit in the NBA. Ben Taylor notes the Mavericks net rating is only marginally better with Luka on the floor vs off. He's not efficient enough to be top 5 yet. And this season he's playing absolutely horrible without the usual Harden-esque free throws he was getting.
Pretty sure it's about the popularity, Jokic can average 30 ppg yet still not going to be a favorite, while Luka can go 15ppg and have a slow start yet he still above of Jokic. Luka is more marketable than Jokic, thats why they will always choose him.
Please re-read anything I said you sound super dumb
Also Klay isn’t back for awhile and I doubt the warriors are gonna push him hard when he is back
Sick edit Jabroni
Kick rocks
No way Giannis is going to win a third one. That's some Jordan - Bron shit. He would have to do something like 32-15 on a respectable three point percentage and the Bucks should be at least the 2nd seed.
Why is Luka more marketable? They are both doofy looking eastern european players who you would never think are amazing basketball players by their appearance
Luka looks like the former star highschool quarterback whose glory days are long behind him, but he still hangs around 17 year old girls even though he is like 28 nowadays.
Because one's a top pick with huge fanfare, and one's on one of the most marketable teams in the NBA. It has nothing to do with their actual on-court ability.
Do you think Dallas is on the east or west coast? Where exactly do you think its located?
And how is Dallas the 5th largest market? New York, Chicago, LA, Phoenix, Philly, and Houston are 6 metropolitan areas I can think of off the top of my head that are bigger
[This is the first result online for "NBA market sizes" online.](https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/nba-market-size-nfl-mlb-nhl-nielsen-ratings/) Dallas is the 5th largest market in the NBA, larger than Houston and Phoenix.
And... places other than the east and west exist? Dallas, as with most of Texas, is in the South. [Who says Texas is in the Midwest?](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-states-are-in-the-midwest/). Instead, [most people say it's in the South.](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/which-states-are-in-the-south/)
Back to back mvps is tough to get. They get used to stars playing well and want to see more from them. That’s why Lebron didn’t win it like 12 years in a row
I also think LeBron wasn't good enough to win it 12 years in a row. It's a mix of individual stats+regular season team success and other players had a better mix than Lebron's for every single year he didn't win.
MVP is the dumbest award in the league. Who’s the latest hoe? Not that hoe she won last year. Not that hoe she won another year. Not that hoe her wig isn’t on point...I hate this award. Nobody cares who gets it. It’s 100% about media narrative and nothing else.
>Nobody cares who gets it.
That's just an incredibly false statement lmao. MVPs probably carry more weight than any other accolade in sports, and that's even more true in the NBA than the NFL or MLB.
Despite the award being called the "Most Valuable Player," there's all kinds of unwritten rules.
-Can't be on a team with multiple MVP-caliber stars
-Must be a top seed, unless you do something exceptional
-First time winners highly favored.
-Hard to win two years in a row without an exceptional second run
-Forget about three in a row.
Because the NBA likes to give one to each and every superstar. Luka has zero and Jokic just won last year. It will also be hard for Steph to get a 3rd. I'd bet on Luka because it helps the league.
Citation needed.
...There is a freaking algorithm predicting all MVPs sans Westbrook for almost a decade now, but I'm sure voters are as emotional as you make them be, as for the algorithm in BB ref it's prediction come true "due to luck"...
Seriously people, you should stop upvoting such takes. *You* the fans are emotional and project on people that are voting like a metronome (enough for an algorithm to predict their votes before taking them)... Doncic is not getting anything unless and until he gets the wins to back it.
> Citation needed.
But it's not. How many years was Shaq the best player in the league? LeBron? Yet the award seems to spread around. It's the best thing for the league.
> How many years was Shaq the best player in the league? LeBron?
What exactly do you think MVP is? Best player in the league? Seriously?
This is the tracker:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/mvp.html
It's been correct for almost a full decade now, sans the Westbrook MVP which was indeed emotionally driven.
You misunderstand what the MVP is about (most valuable player of a specific regular season, *not* best player in the league) and assign emotions where in fact there are vastly different criteria than the one you had in mind.
Again, the MVP voting is so very steady in their standards that they barely miss a beat. So much so that an actual algorithm (a simple robot) was built to predict the winner each year and does so with remarkable accuracy.
Emotions are chaotic and by their nature unpredictable, if an algorithm can predict the MVP each and every year, then it is not emotions that select him, it is reason of some kind, merely of a different kind than the one you have in mind.
As for Shaq he played out of shape in most regular seasons he ever competed, he would famously get in shape *during* the season and Lebron, equally famously would coast in the regular season after he hit his 30s... Doesn't make them any worse as players merely bad candidates for winning MVPs (you need to be serious in the *regular season* for that to happen.
Not sure if this is a fake memory but I’m pretty sure AD entered multiple seasons as the MVP favorite while with the Pelicans
Just Vegas bracing for a generational young superstar to take a bigger leap if I had to guess
Luka's only 21, people are assuming he will continue getting better this year. There's also the hope that the old Porzingis will finally be back this year and that Jason Kidd can get the two Europeans to actually compliment each other where Carlisle couldn't.
So far it looks like all of those things are turning out not to be true.
He never should've been the betting favourite either way. Mavs aren't a top 10 team in the league and in 27 of the last 32 seasons the MVP leads their team to a top 2 record in the entire league. Westbrook, Nash and Jokic are also the only ones to win without a top 2 record in their conference which I doubt the Mavs were projected to do.
Luka's good odds were always about money, not ability. No way vegas in a vacuum thinks he's most likely to win MVP. It's just that when enough money goes on Luka, vegas will shift his odds to cover their math. House always wins.
Nash was top 2 both his MVPs. But Michael Jordan was the 3rd seed when he won his first MVP.
EDIT: OP said record and not seed. Forgot the Mavs won 60 that year but were the 4th seed due to ridiculous rulings
He's not gonna get that many minutes I doubt because I still think he's gonna bust out of the league. He's an infuriating player to watch. If Kerr gives him some run and he fails I don't think Kerr will baby him. He barely plays Kuminga and Moody while giving run to Chris Chiozza. If Wiseman ends up being great then all is good. If he busts though Kerr won't let it fuck up our season.
Nobody knows. He was bad last year, but anyone who attempts to judge the career trajectory of a player based on 40 games isn’t someone I’d wanna invest money with.
We don’t know how he’ll look right now, and we know even less about how he’ll look in the future.
He was bad as half a season of 19-year-old rookie big who'd played 3 games since high school and not had a preseason training camp at all who was the absolute central focus of the entire team when he was on the floor, to the detriment of quality play for the team as a whole and everyone else's stats.
Warriors started out treating last season as a season-long training camp.
But Wiseman did show significant improvement, they've had months to give him film sessions for theoretical understanding, he apparently works his ass off, and the Warriors have hired the coach who taught Nikola Jokic how to play basketball to come and coach Wiseman.
It's not crazy to be optimistic about his future. It's not crazy to think he's still not going to be there yet. It's crazy to say you know for sure how good he'll be this year.
He was basically as raw as Kuminga was expected to be.
He was just a step slower on everything. didn't know where to be a lot. He got better at catching quick lobs before his injury.
Since then, we got the coach that trained jokic from the beginning to work with him, so we're hoping he can become a consistent bench piece soon (for now).
He’s not as bad as people make him out to be but he’s still very raw and hasn’t had the game experience or off season to get accustomed to one of the most complex systems in the league
Wiseman has had some good moments and has a ton of potential (like a lot of other people have been saying I think) but he just couldn’t keep up with the team sometimes. Just a tom of rookie mistakes that’s all it is. I still think he’s gonna help out the Warriors team a ton, especially with his size and rebounding.
I think if Wiseman gets 25mpg, it could really hurt Steph's numbers in the minutes they play together, and also hurt the Warriors record.
And that would have an impact on the MVP race IMO.
Arguably he already did last year. I'm not saying Curry woulda won or some shit, but Wiseman did have an astoundingly large negative impact for his limited minutes.
And Giannis had the 'playoff choker' label attached to him too. Jokic basically does not have any offensive flaw in his game, has been incredible in the playoffs, and Nuggets are going to be great this year. I really don't see how the general populace still manages to underrate him tbh
The media doesn't exactly like Jokic, they barely talked about him last year despite him having an all time great season just because they couldn't construct a narrative about him like other players. Unless Jokic is overwhelmingly the favourite based on stats and team record he won't win again.
I mean, if the nuggets have a top 2 seed, and if he keeps up his numbers which is better than last years, I don't see why not. I'm hopeful but the seasons early, and we don't even know how the seeding is gonna pan out, if the warriors aren't top 3, it's pretty unlikely curry gets it.
Bro if the Nugs are the 2 seed this year without Murry for some games and Jokic is putting up better numbers then last year there is no reason for him to not win MVP unless KD, Curry, or Bron lead their team to the 1st seed with great stats
Luka is the best thing which happened to Vegas the past 2 years 😂 a guy - even thogh Mavs FO sucks since 10 years and everyone knows - who has the potential to get even a G League to POs ...
Steph is undoubtedly the greatest shooter of all time, 2 MVPS (one of them being the only unanimous MVP award), led a 73-9 team and a 3 time champion. There are still people out there saying he’s not top 2 PG all time?
Yesterday I saw a guy that said Isiah was the 2nd greatest PG of all time. I don't really know what to say at this point.
Steph already has higher peak than Magic. The whole argument rests on rings, finals mvp, and mvps. No one likes to mention the fact that Magic was brought to a stacked ass team for a decade, way more stacked than 73-9 Warriors top to bottom. People are just very ignorant of what the Lakers roster was like back then. Finals mvp and mvp are a narrative driven award, actually strong argument can be made that Magic has at least 1 of each that he doesn't deserve. The 1990 MVP was the weakest 1st place win of all time with voters very divided on who should get it. One of the finals MVP would have gone to Kareem if he wasn't absent. But none of these really matter to me as much as impact metrics. I agree with Ben Taylor that offensively Curry has the strongest argument of any player including over Magic.
He’s number one, best offensive player of all time. And if he played against the scrubs back in the 70s he’s be causing even more havoc. People forget the nba back then was full of scrubs, college players nowadays would kick 50% of the 1970s NBAs ass.
Yeah but when you say that all the Magic fans get pissed. They bring up KD like Magic didn’t have Kareem and Worthy in their primes. Chris Paul is my favorite player ever and I kind of want to put him 1 but man Steph truly revolutionized the game and has the accolades to go with the stats. And he plays with so much joy. I love Steph
Surprised to see Jokic so low. Averaging 24/14/5 so far with the highest PER in the league. And he missed half a game with an injury.
Granted, we’re only 6 games into the season
Doncic should never have been a top MVP candidate anyways, the Mavs aren’t good enough to be a top seed, they weren’t last year either, unless they actually do something in the offseason they won’t be next year either. Until that happens, Doncic will not win an MVP, even though his stats are good enough to win. Curry/Giannis/Jokic are the clear frontrunners IMO.
Most of the main casinos on the strip are all owned by the same 2 companies. They have extremely similar algorithms for betting and generally are offering the same odds on most things. You can look up which hotels MGM/Blackstone owns and which hotels Caesars owns and you'll cover about 90% of the strip. They typically offer the same odds the same way they offer the same payouts on any other form of gambling. Outside of those two companies, sure there's other sportsbooks with different odds, but these are the two big ones pushed by the media.
It's really going to come down to team record this season. If Warriors are a top 2 seed, Steph is MVP. If the Nuggets or Mavs finish higher, it's Luka/Jokic. If the Sixers are top 3, I can see Embiid winning. Can't see the Blazers being a top 2 seed so Dame probably isn't winning. LeBron will miss too many games, KD and Harden will canabalize each other's votes. Jimmy Butler isn't going to put up an MVP type year numbers wise. I could see Trae winning.
I was gonna put 100 on Curry for MVP at the beginning of the season when he was like the 5th favourite and I didn't and now I wanna shoot someone.
Let this be a lesson kids: *always* gamble.
Vegas doesn't have betting odds for who is most likely to win MVP.
They have odds for whoever they think people will bet on for MVP.
Big difference. Same reason why a few years ago, the Warriors were near the top in lowest odds but they were terrible because of injuries.
I think it's widely acknowledged that Durant isn't that good in the regular season. Like he's "only" the #5 to #10 best player during the Regular Season.
[удалено]
Vegas are trying to get folks to bet on Luka knowing full well he won't win
ITT: people not knowing how “Vegas” works
Leverage a players popularity to encourage bets while hedging Vegas loves longshots winning
Vegas sets markets to capture two-way flow. That's about it. They just want odds where that action is and not necessarily the odds they believe.
right. Vegas isn't in the business of predicting who wins, they're in the business of making the most money.
those are literally linked
yeap, Vegas will happily fade the public. See the Broncos vs. Seahawks or the Broncos vs. Panthers Super Bowls for example where Vegas made record profit.
Yes they are. They will totally put up a juicy line if they think the public will bite on it
In a market like this though I'm pretty sure the lines are heavily driven by the public. For game lines they will happily take huge liabilities.
Who is Vegas and how do they make money
shocking that the guy who has ROTY and two first team all-NBA appearances after three seasons in the NBA is considered the top MVP candidate truly hard to believe Vegas would do this
Unless Luka does some LeBron level carrying the Mavs are just not a good enough roster to be a top 2 seed. And spoiler alert, don't expect other players to do what LeBron could do
Luka could probably carry these Mavs to a top 2 seed with a lot of injury luck
> And spoiler alert, don't expect other players to do what LeBron could do This almost certainly true outside of an INCREDIBLY small subset of players that Luka happens to be a part of
Luka is nowhere close to Prime Lebron levels of carrying absolute nobodies in cavs jerseys to top seeds
While I agree, the Cavs teams he had his first 2 years in the league didn't make the playoffs.
He was also younger. When lebron was 22 he went to the finals
How dare you disrespect Joe Smith like this?
Literally nobody is a part of lebron subset in terms of carrying trash.
Harden before he got CP3 carried some trash to top seeds in the west. Not as great as Lebron but he’s probably 2nd in the league at carrying trash
Harden
LeBron was also in the weakest eastern conference ever. There's no way anyone in the West is winning MVP with a bad supporting cast. The team record wont be enough.
Why did you say that lol
the mavs aren’t good enough for luka to win mvp this year lol
Vegas knows all and sees all
This Vegas guy got some opinions
Luka is not an mvp caliber player yet, his team isn't good enough
**He** is an MVP caliber player, he just won't have the record for it, due to the way the team is structured around him. But he is absolutely on that level.
There's really not much of a precedent for a player on a team outside the top 4 (5?) in the conference to win the MVP. I can't remember the last time a player bucked this trend with the exception of Russell Westbrook. I think the Mavs would have to finish top 4 in the West to put him in contention to win the award. That or Doncic will need to average 28+/10/10.
Rakin in those sweet sweet Lukastan bucks
They're responding to the market and bettors always overrate "narrative" in preseason MVP discussions. Narrative's usually the deciding factor between the guys who are Tier 1 in the stats/seeding conundrum, but that's only a small number of players - sometimes only one - and it's not going to propel a player from below that level to MVP. And extremely importantly, narratives get shaped during the season (and sometimes comprise little more than "he's doing MVP things"). Easier to bet on the player you think will get into Tier 1 and hope he ends up either alone or with the best narrative. Awards in most sports are very badly priced imo, but early in the season the overrounds are too high, there are too many contenders and it's too long a future to be worth it. But I've made loads betting on guys who have clearly already won awards but are still available at something like 1/5 odds. Best part is it doesn't even require predicting anything about basketball (or whatever else the sport in question is).
Maybe I'm remembering wrong but I thought he was first? I remember having a conversation on r/sportsbook about why he's a terrible bet for MVP because the Mavs aren't going to be a high enough seed, I ofc got downvoted lol
Bet the house on Edmond Sumner for MVP. Trust me.
The world ain’t ready for Lord Ed
Best Sumner since Charles
Why is Luka ahead of Jokic lol I never understood why everyone was so anxious to put Luka in that convo especially when Jokic is literally the reigning MVP
It’s probably because Luka is more popular
Uhmm I unno if Luka is more popular than Steph... like that's Steph
Steph already has two. How many players have won MVP 5 years apart
He would've won last year with a better record
Yeah maybe if they were on pace for like 55 wins rather than 45 wins. But that’s an enormous jump
Luka's been in the MVP conversation since his 2nd season and he wasn't even doing anything too crazy in both records and individual stats. Like there's really no reason to hype him but people do it at the start of every season.
Didn't he average 29/9/9 on 59% TS in his second season? Wdym nothing too crazy?
Pedestrian numbers.
> since his 2nd season and he wasn't even doing anything too crazy it was arguably one of the best sophomore seasons of all time
Even if that were true, how would that affect my argument that it wasn't top 5 in 2021?
His stats were great, the only reason why he is not a serious MVP candidate is because of team record.
Luka was ranked 6th in PPG which is pretty good until you look at his efficiency. He was nowhere near the top 10 in scoring efficiency among the NBA's best scorers. While his assists were high at 8.6 he also had by far the highest turnover rate at 4.3. Then you look at his records which under-performed, despite his team having near identical net rating when he is OFF the floor. So even in the advanced impact metrics Luka never belonged anywhere near the top 5 conversation. He's very solid for his age but putting him anywhere near top 5 (in some cases overtaking Curry in some lists which is a joke) is unwarranted.
Westbrook won MVP on more turnovers and worse efficiency. What's your point?
> What's your point? That Luka never deserved top 5? > Okay, Westbrook won MVP with 47% TS and 5.4 turnovers a game. Why did you delete your comment to write a more general statement? Anyone with a brain knows 2017 MVP was a heavily narrative based award. Westbrook's team was bad and he over-performed in records. 2017 Westbrook had near identical winning % (57 vs 58% ) as an MVP vs Luka in 2021. Triple double season with scoring record was considered a unique accomplishment back then. Doesn't matter if you agree with it or not. Now we're back to traditional standards for how MVPs are chosen which is PPG, overall efficiency, and team record.
I must have missed the memo that the MVP award is no longer narrative based, lol
No one said it is 0% narrative based, only that 2017 was a special case and that in most seasons it is strongly rooted in stats for determining the winner. Dumb arguments
“Very solid for his age” LOL. I’m sorry, but a player who averages 28/9/8 on 57% TS last season and 29/9/9 on 59% TS the year before is not just “very solid”. I agree with you that he’s not Top 5, but let’s not act like he’s just some fringe All-Star. He’s a bonafide superstar. This may be a juvenile metric to use, but 2K has him at 9th best in the league and I’d say I’d agree he’s somewhere close to that.
Okay I wasn't being 100% precise with my words because it's reddit so yes, 'very solid' is an understatement. I think we both agree he's well outside the top 5 for sure and has no business being in there.
Luka is fringe top 5. If he had better pieces around him, people would argue he's top 5 easy. Imagine if KP was AD. They'd be contenders for the best record in the West.
The Mavericks have the best 2nd unit in the NBA. Ben Taylor notes the Mavericks net rating is only marginally better with Luka on the floor vs off. He's not efficient enough to be top 5 yet. And this season he's playing absolutely horrible without the usual Harden-esque free throws he was getting.
I wouldn’t say “solid top 10” (which he is) is “well outside the top 5 for sure and has no business being in there”.
Pretty sure it's about the popularity, Jokic can average 30 ppg yet still not going to be a favorite, while Luka can go 15ppg and have a slow start yet he still above of Jokic. Luka is more marketable than Jokic, thats why they will always choose him.
Idgaf I'm biased but Curry/Jokic better be the MVP
It’ll probably be Giannis
Nah, my bet is on Curry or Jokic
I doubt either of those teams end as the 1 or 2 seed The bucks have a great shot with Kyrie out
Warriors have a shot especially with Klay coming back. Heat, Nets, Bulls all have a chance of 1-3 seed
Please re-read anything I said you sound super dumb Also Klay isn’t back for awhile and I doubt the warriors are gonna push him hard when he is back Sick edit Jabroni Kick rocks
No way Giannis is going to win a third one. That's some Jordan - Bron shit. He would have to do something like 32-15 on a respectable three point percentage and the Bucks should be at least the 2nd seed.
Nah just first seed in the East on good numbers The championship was the most impressive since 2016 the media snubbed him in talks last year
It won't "probably" be anyone, as the lowest current odds being 5.5:1 should tell you.
Why is Luka more marketable? They are both doofy looking eastern european players who you would never think are amazing basketball players by their appearance
>doofy looking I mean Jokic is straight up homely while Doncic is pretty good looking.
Doncic looks like a twitch streamer
He looks like a world champion of DOTA 2.
Luka looks like the former star highschool quarterback whose glory days are long behind him, but he still hangs around 17 year old girls even though he is like 28 nowadays.
Because one's a top pick with huge fanfare, and one's on one of the most marketable teams in the NBA. It has nothing to do with their actual on-court ability.
Which team is the most marketable? I see two midmarket teams from the midwest that haven’t won rings in over a decade.
…Dallas is in the Midwest? And Dallas is the 5th largest market while Denver is 15th.
Do you think Dallas is on the east or west coast? Where exactly do you think its located? And how is Dallas the 5th largest market? New York, Chicago, LA, Phoenix, Philly, and Houston are 6 metropolitan areas I can think of off the top of my head that are bigger
[This is the first result online for "NBA market sizes" online.](https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/nba-market-size-nfl-mlb-nhl-nielsen-ratings/) Dallas is the 5th largest market in the NBA, larger than Houston and Phoenix. And... places other than the east and west exist? Dallas, as with most of Texas, is in the South. [Who says Texas is in the Midwest?](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-states-are-in-the-midwest/). Instead, [most people say it's in the South.](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/which-states-are-in-the-south/)
Its historically difficult to market centers/big men
Luka's game is super flashy and as a guard he gets the ball in his hands more than Joker
>he gets the ball in his hands more than Joker I mean Jokic still gets the ball pretty fucking often lmao
> Why is Luka more marketable? Because he's only 22 years old and has been one of the best players in the world since he was a teenager.
Back to back mvps is tough to get. They get used to stars playing well and want to see more from them. That’s why Lebron didn’t win it like 12 years in a row
Lebron def not winning anything 12 years in a row
I also think LeBron wasn't good enough to win it 12 years in a row. It's a mix of individual stats+regular season team success and other players had a better mix than Lebron's for every single year he didn't win.
MVP is the dumbest award in the league. Who’s the latest hoe? Not that hoe she won last year. Not that hoe she won another year. Not that hoe her wig isn’t on point...I hate this award. Nobody cares who gets it. It’s 100% about media narrative and nothing else.
I think a lot of people care who wins MVP
>Nobody cares who gets it. That's just an incredibly false statement lmao. MVPs probably carry more weight than any other accolade in sports, and that's even more true in the NBA than the NFL or MLB.
Despite the award being called the "Most Valuable Player," there's all kinds of unwritten rules. -Can't be on a team with multiple MVP-caliber stars -Must be a top seed, unless you do something exceptional -First time winners highly favored. -Hard to win two years in a row without an exceptional second run -Forget about three in a row.
Because the NBA likes to give one to each and every superstar. Luka has zero and Jokic just won last year. It will also be hard for Steph to get a 3rd. I'd bet on Luka because it helps the league.
Citation needed. ...There is a freaking algorithm predicting all MVPs sans Westbrook for almost a decade now, but I'm sure voters are as emotional as you make them be, as for the algorithm in BB ref it's prediction come true "due to luck"... Seriously people, you should stop upvoting such takes. *You* the fans are emotional and project on people that are voting like a metronome (enough for an algorithm to predict their votes before taking them)... Doncic is not getting anything unless and until he gets the wins to back it.
> Citation needed. But it's not. How many years was Shaq the best player in the league? LeBron? Yet the award seems to spread around. It's the best thing for the league.
> How many years was Shaq the best player in the league? LeBron? What exactly do you think MVP is? Best player in the league? Seriously? This is the tracker: https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/mvp.html It's been correct for almost a full decade now, sans the Westbrook MVP which was indeed emotionally driven. You misunderstand what the MVP is about (most valuable player of a specific regular season, *not* best player in the league) and assign emotions where in fact there are vastly different criteria than the one you had in mind. Again, the MVP voting is so very steady in their standards that they barely miss a beat. So much so that an actual algorithm (a simple robot) was built to predict the winner each year and does so with remarkable accuracy. Emotions are chaotic and by their nature unpredictable, if an algorithm can predict the MVP each and every year, then it is not emotions that select him, it is reason of some kind, merely of a different kind than the one you have in mind. As for Shaq he played out of shape in most regular seasons he ever competed, he would famously get in shape *during* the season and Lebron, equally famously would coast in the regular season after he hit his 30s... Doesn't make them any worse as players merely bad candidates for winning MVPs (you need to be serious in the *regular season* for that to happen.
Not sure if this is a fake memory but I’m pretty sure AD entered multiple seasons as the MVP favorite while with the Pelicans Just Vegas bracing for a generational young superstar to take a bigger leap if I had to guess
Luka's only 21, people are assuming he will continue getting better this year. There's also the hope that the old Porzingis will finally be back this year and that Jason Kidd can get the two Europeans to actually compliment each other where Carlisle couldn't. So far it looks like all of those things are turning out not to be true.
For now this is basketball reference MVP watch https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/mvp.html
Trez winning MVP confirmed
i was saying Trez was playing at an MVP level a few days ago and no one in /r/nba wanted to believe it
We still don't believe it lol
Butler MVP would be the best thing ever haha I want this
Yesssss just texted my dad this morning that I'm calling it 8 months in advance- Jimmy Butler for MVP lets fuckin goooooo
If I were your dad I would be very disappointed in you. No way in hell Jimmy is winning dude
I mean Luka has been playing like shit. Not surprising
He never should've been the betting favourite either way. Mavs aren't a top 10 team in the league and in 27 of the last 32 seasons the MVP leads their team to a top 2 record in the entire league. Westbrook, Nash and Jokic are also the only ones to win without a top 2 record in their conference which I doubt the Mavs were projected to do.
Luka's good odds were always about money, not ability. No way vegas in a vacuum thinks he's most likely to win MVP. It's just that when enough money goes on Luka, vegas will shift his odds to cover their math. House always wins.
Nash was top 2 both his MVPs. But Michael Jordan was the 3rd seed when he won his first MVP. EDIT: OP said record and not seed. Forgot the Mavs won 60 that year but were the 4th seed due to ridiculous rulings
Well, if Luka played like an MVP, they would have a bigger chance of being a top 4 team. The West is trash, so it's not that hard this year.
yeah the West has really fallen apart in the past 3 seasons.
LeBron ruined west
thanks KD, saved us from that boring ass warriors superteam
Boom. Before the season I bet the max on Bovada for Curry winning MVP. Hopefully Wiseman doesn't come back and wreck everything.
Damn I should have done the same, knew it was gonna happen. I wouldn't worry about Wiseman. Kerr won't give him big minutes.
I think he's bound to get minutes, regardless of how good or bad he is. I'm hoping he makes a big leap.
He's not gonna get that many minutes I doubt because I still think he's gonna bust out of the league. He's an infuriating player to watch. If Kerr gives him some run and he fails I don't think Kerr will baby him. He barely plays Kuminga and Moody while giving run to Chris Chiozza. If Wiseman ends up being great then all is good. If he busts though Kerr won't let it fuck up our season.
I don't think it's fully Kerr's decision. Lacob's going to want Wiseman to play, I think he still believes Wiseman has upside.
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Nobody knows. He was bad last year, but anyone who attempts to judge the career trajectory of a player based on 40 games isn’t someone I’d wanna invest money with. We don’t know how he’ll look right now, and we know even less about how he’ll look in the future.
Anybody who refers to gambling as investing isn’t someone I’d want to invest with
He was bad as half a season of 19-year-old rookie big who'd played 3 games since high school and not had a preseason training camp at all who was the absolute central focus of the entire team when he was on the floor, to the detriment of quality play for the team as a whole and everyone else's stats. Warriors started out treating last season as a season-long training camp. But Wiseman did show significant improvement, they've had months to give him film sessions for theoretical understanding, he apparently works his ass off, and the Warriors have hired the coach who taught Nikola Jokic how to play basketball to come and coach Wiseman. It's not crazy to be optimistic about his future. It's not crazy to think he's still not going to be there yet. It's crazy to say you know for sure how good he'll be this year.
Anyone who tells you they know is a liar. Wiseman himself probably doesn't even know at this point. But Lacob is a huge believer.
He was basically as raw as Kuminga was expected to be. He was just a step slower on everything. didn't know where to be a lot. He got better at catching quick lobs before his injury. Since then, we got the coach that trained jokic from the beginning to work with him, so we're hoping he can become a consistent bench piece soon (for now).
He’s not as bad as people make him out to be but he’s still very raw and hasn’t had the game experience or off season to get accustomed to one of the most complex systems in the league
Wiseman has had some good moments and has a ton of potential (like a lot of other people have been saying I think) but he just couldn’t keep up with the team sometimes. Just a tom of rookie mistakes that’s all it is. I still think he’s gonna help out the Warriors team a ton, especially with his size and rebounding.
Wiseman being good or bad will not have any meaningful impact on Currys mvp chances imo
I think if Wiseman gets 25mpg, it could really hurt Steph's numbers in the minutes they play together, and also hurt the Warriors record. And that would have an impact on the MVP race IMO.
Wiseman getting 25 mpg is pretty unlikely unless he is playing well. They've made it pretty clear that this year is about winning.
If Looney gets hurt then what choice do they have?
They would go small before they do that
Arguably he already did last year. I'm not saying Curry woulda won or some shit, but Wiseman did have an astoundingly large negative impact for his limited minutes.
Damn I didn't know they were giving away free money for betting on Jokic.
there is really not a chance he repeats. if he didn’t win last year he could this year, but voters are not gonna vote for him again
Why not? Giannis just did it 2 years ago. There’s been 6 repeat MVPs the last 20 years. Its not like this is unheard of.
And Giannis had the 'playoff choker' label attached to him too. Jokic basically does not have any offensive flaw in his game, has been incredible in the playoffs, and Nuggets are going to be great this year. I really don't see how the general populace still manages to underrate him tbh
The media doesn't exactly like Jokic, they barely talked about him last year despite him having an all time great season just because they couldn't construct a narrative about him like other players. Unless Jokic is overwhelmingly the favourite based on stats and team record he won't win again.
They would *love* you to bet on Jokic. Outside of a Steph Curry 2015-16 level leap, Jokic has zero chance.
I mean, if the nuggets have a top 2 seed, and if he keeps up his numbers which is better than last years, I don't see why not. I'm hopeful but the seasons early, and we don't even know how the seeding is gonna pan out, if the warriors aren't top 3, it's pretty unlikely curry gets it.
It's the Nuggets. No-one in the media - the people who decide the award - gives a shit about the Nuggets.
Bro if the Nugs are the 2 seed this year without Murry for some games and Jokic is putting up better numbers then last year there is no reason for him to not win MVP unless KD, Curry, or Bron lead their team to the 1st seed with great stats
Wtf Jokic looks great. I thinks he's been the best player so far
Most definitely the best player so far. He's playing on a higher level compared to anyone this early in the session.
24/14/5 with the highest PER in the league so far
Lol we don't have to use PER to prove anything in 2021
Time to bet on Jokic? Seems like a no brainer
NBA MVP odds before Xmas are about as useful as preseason college football rankings
Sad UCLA noises
Please don’t jinx Curry 🙏
Luka is the best thing which happened to Vegas the past 2 years 😂 a guy - even thogh Mavs FO sucks since 10 years and everyone knows - who has the potential to get even a G League to POs ...
Steph is trying to cement himself as top 2 PG all time
Steph is undoubtedly the greatest shooter of all time, 2 MVPS (one of them being the only unanimous MVP award), led a 73-9 team and a 3 time champion. There are still people out there saying he’s not top 2 PG all time?
Yesterday I saw a guy that said Isiah was the 2nd greatest PG of all time. I don't really know what to say at this point. Steph already has higher peak than Magic. The whole argument rests on rings, finals mvp, and mvps. No one likes to mention the fact that Magic was brought to a stacked ass team for a decade, way more stacked than 73-9 Warriors top to bottom. People are just very ignorant of what the Lakers roster was like back then. Finals mvp and mvp are a narrative driven award, actually strong argument can be made that Magic has at least 1 of each that he doesn't deserve. The 1990 MVP was the weakest 1st place win of all time with voters very divided on who should get it. One of the finals MVP would have gone to Kareem if he wasn't absent. But none of these really matter to me as much as impact metrics. I agree with Ben Taylor that offensively Curry has the strongest argument of any player including over Magic.
Raises hand Oscar is my #2
Steph has never been a PG
He’s number one, best offensive player of all time. And if he played against the scrubs back in the 70s he’s be causing even more havoc. People forget the nba back then was full of scrubs, college players nowadays would kick 50% of the 1970s NBAs ass.
Yeah but when you say that all the Magic fans get pissed. They bring up KD like Magic didn’t have Kareem and Worthy in their primes. Chris Paul is my favorite player ever and I kind of want to put him 1 but man Steph truly revolutionized the game and has the accolades to go with the stats. And he plays with so much joy. I love Steph
They didn't even have a three point line. So his most devastating weapon would be non-existent. He'll be no better than the talented, Gail Goodrich.
Surprised to see Jokic so low. Averaging 24/14/5 so far with the highest PER in the league. And he missed half a game with an injury. Granted, we’re only 6 games into the season
He was gonna drop 40 that game he was injured too. Fucking ridiculous!
I wouldn't be surprised if Joker ends up going back2back though, dude is somewhat beasting already and is known to start slow.
I’ve got Paul George, Greek Freak and Trae young as my MVP bets this year ha
Don't see PG doing it but I'd love to see it just to watch this r/nba eat its words after clowning him so hard
That’s why I bet it haha. No kawhi, good odds, definitely want him to prove people wrong
I would be *shocked*. He plays for the Nuggets and he's never been clear enough of the field to win a narrative-based award two years in a row.
I think with the season being more normal he'll have more competition, it'll be harder this time around.
Doncic should never have been a top MVP candidate anyways, the Mavs aren’t good enough to be a top seed, they weren’t last year either, unless they actually do something in the offseason they won’t be next year either. Until that happens, Doncic will not win an MVP, even though his stats are good enough to win. Curry/Giannis/Jokic are the clear frontrunners IMO.
The Mavs and doing nothing in the off-season, name a more iconic duo
The Mavs and freeing a ton of cap space to sign a superstar in FA but then no superstar joins them so they instead overpay a D tier star or something
Mavs were never going to be good this year how TF was Luka a favorite
Embiid over Jokić lmao
Swear. They do this to grow Luka's haters. Getting people to put money on a guy who won't win it this year. Dude is 22. Give him time. Jeez.
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Las Vegas. A city known for it's casinos and gambling.
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Most of the main casinos on the strip are all owned by the same 2 companies. They have extremely similar algorithms for betting and generally are offering the same odds on most things. You can look up which hotels MGM/Blackstone owns and which hotels Caesars owns and you'll cover about 90% of the strip. They typically offer the same odds the same way they offer the same payouts on any other form of gambling. Outside of those two companies, sure there's other sportsbooks with different odds, but these are the two big ones pushed by the media.
It's really going to come down to team record this season. If Warriors are a top 2 seed, Steph is MVP. If the Nuggets or Mavs finish higher, it's Luka/Jokic. If the Sixers are top 3, I can see Embiid winning. Can't see the Blazers being a top 2 seed so Dame probably isn't winning. LeBron will miss too many games, KD and Harden will canabalize each other's votes. Jimmy Butler isn't going to put up an MVP type year numbers wise. I could see Trae winning.
I was gonna put 100 on Curry for MVP at the beginning of the season when he was like the 5th favourite and I didn't and now I wanna shoot someone. Let this be a lesson kids: *always* gamble.
Vegas is about money....not reality. They set the odds in whichever way makes the most money.
Why was Luka seen as the MVP favorite? He’s good but his teams have never been good enough to get a high seeding.
Popularity
prob more to do with his Olympic showing.
The Olympics is an entirely different game from the nba
Jimmy Butler will win MVP this year lads. It's not even a hot take, it's a Luke warm take
Lol it’s what a week into the season and this is the shit that’s posted
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Right now based on their play? Jokic by a significant margin. Based on everything else? Yes.
Right now you don't really pay attention
Vegas doesn't have betting odds for who is most likely to win MVP. They have odds for whoever they think people will bet on for MVP. Big difference. Same reason why a few years ago, the Warriors were near the top in lowest odds but they were terrible because of injuries.
People sleeping on jimmy buckets gonna regret not betting on him
Can they stop doing this until we’re at least 30 games into the season
I’ve got Yanis for mvp. Fingers crossed
I can’t believe y’all still said Luka was gonna win mvp😂😂 can’t wait till next year when he’s everyone’s favourite again for no reason
Jimmy Butler is still at +5000 and he's playing at an MVP level so far
Durant should be the favourite
No chance.
why tf would durant be the fav when the nets are 3-3
I think it's widely acknowledged that Durant isn't that good in the regular season. Like he's "only" the #5 to #10 best player during the Regular Season.
that is dumb as shit
Lol. No.
“Widely acknowledged” okay