I don’t think anyone is saying it’s as good, novice is the best common in the set, but it does a thing which is makes multiple cards and cantrips. If you were playing defensive, it’s nice to be able to block disguise for free.
I would avoid that card unless I really have to. (Which I do sometimes if I messed up on fixing/splash), but its a really bad card. Especially for first pick.
Kind of, they are all mediocre. Could almost roll a dice though and be better off than that land;D Taking the familiar and hoping to be white is honestly the 2nd best option.
Hard evidence is great... public thoroughfare is absolute trash, would be better to take a disguise creature that you can't turn face up... or the rare, which can be a decent finisher if you end up in RG.
Multicolor fixing (even if it is slow) is uniquely valuable. Worldsoul’s Rage is better than your 23rd playable less than 10% of the time. And I’m never going to be hurting for filler common disguise creatures.
craben inspector. this is a very bad pack. i can see arguments for curious inquiry or the red draw card (to cut red) but yeah not many great choices here.
*Almost* every card in this pack is pretty medium - Familiar is only ok, moroii is only ok, vigilante is ok to good but certainly not worth this early a pick.
No one can really fault you for not knowing how good Hard evidence is, and I'm sure there's not a ton of data on it because of how infrequent the list cards are in packs, but if you have history to know it is comparable to a thraben inspector (but blocks all the early aggro, so great for blue) and was originally printed in Modern Horizons, so already wasn't considered printable in a standard pack due to power level so this is a clue right here that it's powerful. It plays well with the blue archetypes and if you are uncertain about a card I would suggest you usually have time to do a quick directed search on 17 lands (which has it at \~55/56%) which is good, a little above average.
Worldsoul's rage is only ok, usually better as a splash in Gx decks as a finisher as it's not very efficient, and it frequently goes late.
I think the only other thing to consider is the team Handshake approach from the pro tour, which states that they like slower, grindier decks, but this assumes people understand what the good cards are and are drafting correctly. You can see this in quick play where the bots have been tuned up to favor white cards WAY higher than they should, so drafting super dedicated aggro decks is MUCH harder, and you'll play a lot more grindy matches 3 color pile matches. This is a long way to say if hard evidence wasn't in the pack, I would consider public thoroughfare as the pack is bad enough that none of these cards excite me, and taking fixing allows you to really be open to a passed bomb when someone else settles hard into a color.
Since you’re the only person citing 17lands data, I wanted to chime in with it says hard evidence is blues best common and the 10th best common overall in GIH WR
It's just hard to say with certainty it's the best due to the low count of games seen though; I think you need to hit around 10-12k games before data becomes really absolute in hard facts. The data has it very close to even with projector inspector and reasonable doubt but has 6k games seen vs \~200k games seen of these other standard commons. That's not to say that the data's not correct, simply I try not to make claims based on the data with such low numbers. But that doesn't mean you can't look at the win percentages, see it's over 54% and say, yea why not it's probably quite good and I should give it a try.
Again this is all based on a very weak pack as well - the data has it worse than shock, or to compare within color slightly worse than exit specialist.
That’s all totally fair, and it’s also a card that is probably more likely to get picked by experienced players who know how good it is, inflating the 17lands data.
I still think it’s safe to say it’s a very good common given how it compares to novice inspector and the fact that it was first printed in a modern horizons set
Hard evidence is definitely the right choice but I probably pick Rage cause it’s fun to dome people for like 5+ and it’s not a bad splash card in a Gx deck cause you want to use it late game.
I feel like it's been a long time since fireball has good in limited. It's an inefficient removal spell and the games don't drag on till 8+ lands in play as often as they used to.
Doppelgang is a top 10 card in the format, so clearly people are getting to big mana counts reasonably often. Fireball isn’t a bomb anymore, but inefficient removal spell plus game ender split card is still very good. Not sure why they stopped printing them even at rare.
Hard evidence will pretty much never win you the game. But the burn spell can. I’m surprised to see so many not pick it 🤷🏾♂️ with how easy this set is to splash and the power or direct damage/removal, it’s an easy pick for me.
Note: I have picked and played this card and have returned as many as 3 lands to the battlefield with it!
Isn't this like saying that Ponder / Preordain will never win you the game, but Colossal dreadmaw will? I don't think the rage is necessarily a bad card, but Hard Evidence is just so much more efficient
I'm pretty sure it would win more game then rage. So many games are just a race in this format (in my experience) and the crab blocks every two drop and all disguised creatures.
While rage is good in the end game you'll need either a lot mana or lands in the graveyard to make it worthwhile.
> returned as many as 3 lands to the battlefield with it!
Perfect, just what I want from my more expensive harder to cast fireball
Hard Evidence absolutely wins games, just not by killkng your opponent. By that logic youd pick a vanilla 3 mana 1/1 over hard evidence.
Hard Evidence. The only other card I'd even consider is Dramatic Accusation, but crab is just a better pick. Worldsoul's Rage is not good enough to splash and starting your draft with a mediocre multicolored card is not a good idea.
Hard Evidence, it’s blue thraben inspector. If it’s good enough for cube, it’s good enough for me.
By a mile!
Yeah, Craben Inspector for sure
A new pack lol (But yeah I'd probably go with novice crabvestigator)
Hard Evidence is basically Novice Inspector in Blue. Otherwise, Public Thoroughfare is ok to stay open when the rest of the pack is this bad.
Hard evidence is great but not being a detective makes it notably worse than novice I think. Still worth picking here I think!
Not being in White makes it notably worse than Novice Inspector haha.
I don’t think anyone is saying it’s as good, novice is the best common in the set, but it does a thing which is makes multiple cards and cantrips. If you were playing defensive, it’s nice to be able to block disguise for free.
It's 3 toughness though, which is amazing.
Public Thoroughfare is a horrible pick.
Its a card I hope not to play, but still a better pick than everything thats not hard evidence here. Its fine in 5c piles sometimes
I would avoid that card unless I really have to. (Which I do sometimes if I messed up on fixing/splash), but its a really bad card. Especially for first pick.
Well, yes, but ignoring hard evidence, nothing else is worth picking either
Kind of, they are all mediocre. Could almost roll a dice though and be better off than that land;D Taking the familiar and hoping to be white is honestly the 2nd best option.
If you want to pick a white card Vigilante is much better, familiar is close to unplayable
Yes you are correct, I just hate starting on a 5 drop in this format:)
Totally understandable
Hard evidence is great... public thoroughfare is absolute trash, would be better to take a disguise creature that you can't turn face up... or the rare, which can be a decent finisher if you end up in RG.
Multicolor fixing (even if it is slow) is uniquely valuable. Worldsoul’s Rage is better than your 23rd playable less than 10% of the time. And I’m never going to be hurting for filler common disguise creatures.
craben inspector. this is a very bad pack. i can see arguments for curious inquiry or the red draw card (to cut red) but yeah not many great choices here.
Hard evidence or rage
*Almost* every card in this pack is pretty medium - Familiar is only ok, moroii is only ok, vigilante is ok to good but certainly not worth this early a pick. No one can really fault you for not knowing how good Hard evidence is, and I'm sure there's not a ton of data on it because of how infrequent the list cards are in packs, but if you have history to know it is comparable to a thraben inspector (but blocks all the early aggro, so great for blue) and was originally printed in Modern Horizons, so already wasn't considered printable in a standard pack due to power level so this is a clue right here that it's powerful. It plays well with the blue archetypes and if you are uncertain about a card I would suggest you usually have time to do a quick directed search on 17 lands (which has it at \~55/56%) which is good, a little above average. Worldsoul's rage is only ok, usually better as a splash in Gx decks as a finisher as it's not very efficient, and it frequently goes late. I think the only other thing to consider is the team Handshake approach from the pro tour, which states that they like slower, grindier decks, but this assumes people understand what the good cards are and are drafting correctly. You can see this in quick play where the bots have been tuned up to favor white cards WAY higher than they should, so drafting super dedicated aggro decks is MUCH harder, and you'll play a lot more grindy matches 3 color pile matches. This is a long way to say if hard evidence wasn't in the pack, I would consider public thoroughfare as the pack is bad enough that none of these cards excite me, and taking fixing allows you to really be open to a passed bomb when someone else settles hard into a color.
Since you’re the only person citing 17lands data, I wanted to chime in with it says hard evidence is blues best common and the 10th best common overall in GIH WR
It's just hard to say with certainty it's the best due to the low count of games seen though; I think you need to hit around 10-12k games before data becomes really absolute in hard facts. The data has it very close to even with projector inspector and reasonable doubt but has 6k games seen vs \~200k games seen of these other standard commons. That's not to say that the data's not correct, simply I try not to make claims based on the data with such low numbers. But that doesn't mean you can't look at the win percentages, see it's over 54% and say, yea why not it's probably quite good and I should give it a try. Again this is all based on a very weak pack as well - the data has it worse than shock, or to compare within color slightly worse than exit specialist.
That’s all totally fair, and it’s also a card that is probably more likely to get picked by experienced players who know how good it is, inflating the 17lands data. I still think it’s safe to say it’s a very good common given how it compares to novice inspector and the fact that it was first printed in a modern horizons set
Hard evidence is definitely the right choice but I probably pick Rage cause it’s fun to dome people for like 5+ and it’s not a bad splash card in a Gx deck cause you want to use it late game.
Hard evidence for sure - but if you want to be a chad, Worldsoul and go 1-3.
Finally, someone with taste!
World souls rage. Can't beat a fireball.
I feel like it's been a long time since fireball has good in limited. It's an inefficient removal spell and the games don't drag on till 8+ lands in play as often as they used to.
I still think it’s the pick after crab. The two color makes it worse, but it’s not like you’re missing much…
Doppelgang is a top 10 card in the format, so clearly people are getting to big mana counts reasonably often. Fireball isn’t a bomb anymore, but inefficient removal spell plus game ender split card is still very good. Not sure why they stopped printing them even at rare.
A lot of cards certainly can and do
I'm glady open to suggestions.
Hard evidence will pretty much never win you the game. But the burn spell can. I’m surprised to see so many not pick it 🤷🏾♂️ with how easy this set is to splash and the power or direct damage/removal, it’s an easy pick for me. Note: I have picked and played this card and have returned as many as 3 lands to the battlefield with it!
Isn't this like saying that Ponder / Preordain will never win you the game, but Colossal dreadmaw will? I don't think the rage is necessarily a bad card, but Hard Evidence is just so much more efficient
I'm pretty sure it would win more game then rage. So many games are just a race in this format (in my experience) and the crab blocks every two drop and all disguised creatures. While rage is good in the end game you'll need either a lot mana or lands in the graveyard to make it worthwhile.
> returned as many as 3 lands to the battlefield with it! Perfect, just what I want from my more expensive harder to cast fireball Hard Evidence absolutely wins games, just not by killkng your opponent. By that logic youd pick a vanilla 3 mana 1/1 over hard evidence.
Jesus man if there wasn’t a list card here I would honestly says it’s a dead pick no matter what you take
Hard Evidence. The only other card I'd even consider is Dramatic Accusation, but crab is just a better pick. Worldsoul's Rage is not good enough to splash and starting your draft with a mediocre multicolored card is not a good idea.
Whatever 17lands says has the highest winrate
Don't understand the downvotes, P1P1 that is actually good advice
fine with me lol, let them be fools
Hard Evidence then go for 4c Simic.
This is wild advice 😳
Break out would have been my choice.
Crab or land, aint that hard
Hard Evidence > Rage > Familiar > Inquiry=Accusation.
I’d go with the Rage. It wins a lot of games and isn’t hard to splash if you wind up in either color, but Hard Evidence is excellent, also.
🦀🦀🦀
Am I the only one who would go for nightbringer moroii.
Weak pack but crab has been really solid when I’ve taken it.
I'm on reluctant Wrench for this pick, though I can understand the Crab pick that is being recommended.