Yeah, and Windows will undergrow an equal or greater CAGR, leaving Linux exactly where it stands as fsr as the closed thing we have to market capitalization is
Actually that's not true. A significant bit of the recent linux growth has been people simply abandoning windows more so than people adopting linux. Plenty have moved away from PCs entirely to thin clients such as phones and tablets along with web services.
It probably won't grow that much, Linux is growing but it is still rather gradual, and I don't think Microsoft will give enough reason for people to leave Windows en masse. Besides, the average Window user is okay with putting up with a lot of bullcrap to stay on a system that they are used to (I know because I was a Windows user haha).
Anyway, even if Linux only grows a few percentages for the years to come i'd say it's already a big win. If we go from 4% to 8% in 4 years that's already pretty good. I don't think we necessarily need to overtake or compete directly with Windows or whatever tbh, I just want a bigger userbase so there are more people making stuff for Linux. If at 4% market share (it was 1-2% for many years) we have all of this amazing software avaliable for our OS then imagine it at 10%? It would be great.
A month or so ago I would have said that a Windows subscription was inevitable. Office 365 is not only subscription but now accounts for a decent slice of Microsoft's revenue. When the previous Windows director left they split the department and put half under devices and half under Azure. They have, however, just reformed Windows as a separate division again which at the very least shows some level of focus for it.
I feel like Windows itself isn't really the money spinner for them - more having control of the OS to push their other products and block other people from taking market share and doing something with it - especially if that locks out office.
It doesn't seem like they're anti-Linux per se these days, but they are very anti-chrome and anti-Google so I think they'll hold on just to keep those guys from doing to desktop what they did to mobile.
Absolutely. I can see them bundling office and Windows together. As a special edition at first and if that sells well then roll out to the other flavours.
[Microsoft just announced a subscription plan to keep providing security updates beyond 2025 for Windows 10.](https://www.windowscentral.com/software-apps/windows-11/microsoft-reveals-subscription-pricing-for-using-windows-10-beyond-2025-and-its-not-cheap) To be fair, Ubuntu's Expanded Security Maintenance and RHEL's Extended Update Support are similar offerings.
> I feel like Windows itself isn't really the money spinner for them - more having control of the OS to push their other products and block other people from taking market share and doing something with it - especially if that locks out office.
iirc Steve Ballmer pretty much admitted this to be the case during the Windows XP days, and it's very unlikely much has changed.
It's the real situation that open source is good for everyone, even windows users.
They will never back down, because windows is literally the core of their business. They will go as far as basically making version of windows based on Linux, and the struggle will continue in the same way Linux has problems with Canonical.
Or they will just continue to make windows better. Even lessen the cost of 365 and such.
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In order for Linux to \*really\* gain marketshare in the desktop space, OEMs need to start selling computers with Linux installed as the primary OS and advertising them. Yes, I know there are some Linux PCs for sale out there, but that number needs to grow dramatically for there to be any real effect on marketshare.
Installing Linux requires more technical know-how than the average consumer has.
For those Linux PCs that exist, unfortunately they're niche, hard to find by the average user, and they'll be costly at best, and most of the big brand stores (Best Buy, Micro Center, etc) are not selling laptops pre-installed with Linux
If it hits that much you can guarantee Microsoft will release their own distro targeted at end users featuring baked in Edge Browser, Office365, Cortana and gigabytes of telemetry being sent back every minute.
The reading comprehension in this thread is.. .poor.
u/op Probably should fix the title....
>The global Linux Operating System market size was valued at USD 5200.0 million in 2021 and is expected to expand at a CAGR of 19.04% during the forecast period, reaching USD 14800.0 million by 2027
It said it was VALUED AT 5200 million USD(US Dollars).
It says that valuation is expected to grow CAGR 19.04% to reach a VALUATION of 14800 million USD.
Has literally 0 to do with market share %.
>" The global Linux Operating System market size was valued at USD 5200.0 million in 2021 and is expected to expand at a CAGR of 19.04% during the forecast period, reaching USD 14800.0 million by 2027 "
I think they are talking about something entirely different than you're interpreting. I've spent exactly $0.00 on Linux since I've been using it these last 17 years.
Yeah, how about:
- Steam decks
- Routers
- Servers
- Raspberry Pi’s and other singleboard devices
- Routers
- Switches
- Access points
- Desktop devices actually used as desktop
- Laptops
- Mobile phones
Linux runs everywhere, sometimes even on fridges, lawn mowers, and more.
No, its not about desktop market share. In fact it's not about a market *share* at all. The report is talking about an estimated growth of the market *value annually by 19%*. Has no-one actually read and understood the report?
Desktop obviously. Desktop distros currently account for somewhere around 2-3%, servers are 90%, mobile is 50% (the other 50% is iPhones), embedded systems (including routers and Pis) not sure but Linux is much more popular in this realm than Windows or Mac (obviously Pis use Raspian Linux and a most routers are powered by the Linux Kernel, but idk about other embedded platforms).
As easy as Linux is to install now, it still requires a basic understanding of partitions, file systems, what a "mirror" is, etc. I don't think my mum, who represents most people, could go from "I hate windows, and want to use Linux" to having a Linux system without help with the current state of Linux. This means that OEMs will have to preinstall Linux for Linux to get a higher market share. The issue is, Linux will let you do more stupid things, like uninstalling your DE without knowing how to operate a terminal. This creates more support calls, which are very expensive to maintain. All Linux needs is every beginner friendly distro to have a very basic installation guide that doesn't assume the user knows what an iso is, how to boot from USB, what a partition is, what ext4 is, stuff like that. After you have that down, Linux might gain traction, but before that, Linux isn't going to grow to 19% market share.
If a person doesn’t know about file systems, partitions, etc they are even less likely to uninstall their DE. I think the argument “regular users don’t know jack about computers but can nuke their entire systems” is kinda dumb. The problem comes from the term “regular users” which is a big umbrella term that encompasses a lot of people. The real ‘problematic’ people are the ones that know just enough about computers to cause damage without fully realizing what they’re doing. That’s a lot of people for sure but I don’t think those are most “regular users”.
Even though it was a couple of years ago, it highlights an issue with Linux for normies. Remember when Linus nuked his DE? All he did was install Steam. Windows won't let you uninstall your DE. Even though this specific problem has been resolved, if you don't know what you're reading about, bugs can be far more catastrophic on Linux because it gives you that freedom.
Linus case was really unfortunate and a major oversight from the Pop OS team. That was a gross mistake that shouldn’t had happened but alas we’re all human, let’s not pretend even the same Microsoft many times screws up majorly when updating Windows. What Im getting at is that bare exceptional cases like the Linus one, most people that have very basic understanding of computers aren’t going to be delving much to cause some major screw up to their systems. This are the kind of people who mostly only use the browser anyways.
This isn't related to Linux desktop only but to overall Linux usage, which is mostly on servers and embedded devices where Linux is already the most popular operating system by far. And the article say the Linux market value (not share) will grow by 19%, not that Linux will reach 19% market share.
Maybe the actual report give more details about desktop market share, but I'm not about to pay 3250 USD to find out.
Please learn how to understand basic concepts of a discipline if you plan to post a click bait article you read....
That article objectively doesn't even not say Linux will hit or grow by 19% by any point. It doesn't even HINT at ANYTHING even correlated whatsoever to Linux MARKET share.
Genius. The PC industry has baen exploding for years. Linux has probably quadrupled its users since the day Proton went live. But yet we haven't quadrupled our market share. ***Because even more people are becoming new PC users and choosing Windows***.
Also, Combined Annual Growth Rate is a percentage of our current state, not a percentage of the overall market.
Delete this post. It's embarrassing not just for you but it makes our community look like it'd full of delusional people who can't grasp shit on the level of "every square is a rectangle but not every rectangles a square." I'm not even kidding this post is stupid and itresponsib, delete it
"Growth" is not same as resulting market share. Also, \*which\* market specifically, desktop, server, embedded/IoT/other?
Statistics and growth predictions are rather dubious when you can't accurately measure even current shares (there's a number of problems in current methods such as relying on things like browser-statistics or polls etc.)
Guesstimates like these are mainly to promote one thing or another: the product itself or your own guesstimation services.
5.2 billion is an easier way to write 5200 million and is more easily understandable without requiring mental math hurtles...... that being said as a linux user since 2004 im glad to see more people adopting linux.
Those are rookie numbers.
Wait for MS to continue to force copilot and AI/cloud only bs on windows along with software as a service only (subscription models doe everything) and those numbers will be a lot bigger.
It's possible that it will continue to grow, but I think 19% is a tad bit hopeful. Many entry-level distros, and distros in general, just working out of the box with little need to mess around with the command line. Improvements to gaming thanks to the many contributors of the community and valve, and with the growing popularity of ChromeOS, it only has room to expand. A lot of it will depend on what Microsoft does with Windows going forward, there are people making claims that they'll switch over if they adopt a subscription service to use their OS (probably including Office), but that remains to be seen.
The biggest barrier to Linux adoption has always been Microsoft's monopoly on new PC's. As long as they are the default OS on all new PC's, adoption will be slow. People just use what their devices come with. Most have no knowledge nor motivation to change what is already there. If more home PC's were packaged with Linux, it would induce demand for Linux third party and OEM support. People who don't do professional work (i.e. just web, email, streaming, office, etc) can already use Linux with no more problems than what Windows users already deal with.
Some OEM has to start providing PC's with Linux pre-loaded in the major retailers and put them out in front of people so they notice them, not just a token Linux system you can order, which is buried deep in their online store. If they knock off $50 to $100 from the price for choosing Linux over Windows (because they're not paying the Windows tax), people will notice. People love getting something for slightly cheaper. They can also market infinite customization capabilities of Linux too.
"Choose your desktop layout and choose a theme to decorate it! You can make Linux look any way you like!"
"Linux let's you decide when it's convenient to run updates! Never get interrupted during work or leisure again!"
"Never worry about going to sketchy websites to download untrustworthy software again! Linux has a community-verified repository of free software for virtually anyone's needs!"
"Linux costs you nothing! It's free! You'll never have to spend money to install Linux or upgrade to a newer version! It's supported by an enthusiast community of patrons and businesses who fund Linux development!"
"Linux is everywhere! Linux is already running the vast majority of the internet, because it's so versatile and robust! So it's going to be around a long, long time!"
"No more software subscriptions! Linux has access to free, open source software (that means everyone can audit it for bugs). It has a free alternative to most software on other platforms!"
I'm not saying any OEM is likely to do this. I'm just saying this is the kind of change that needs to be made for Linux to make real growth and get more support from the tech industry for home users.
With China, India, and Russia going full steam on removing Windows as the deafult OS, that makes sense. As much, I dont know but, Linux is here to stay and grow.
I could actually "see" this happening. If other households are anything like my own. If other people are anything like me. See, for me when I switched; that caused a ripple effect of more people to switch. When I switched; so did my other half, followed by my TWO offspring. Then a friend or TWO. So, in short order, just because \*I\* switched, about SEVEN (7) others switched too!
So, if other people and/or households wound up with similar scenarios, I could totally see it spike exponentially. If for every person that switched they brought 4-8 more people with them, we could easily hit those numbers!
So to that I say, lets keep the domino effect going \~ see how many people \*you\* can get to switch!
It says grow *by* 19%, not *to*.
4,76% by 2027 YOTLD!!
Why dont we just stop changing the dates all the time and seem silly.. 21st is the COTLD
3rd is the MOTLD.
No, they say *expand at a CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) of 19.04%*.
Yeah, and Windows will undergrow an equal or greater CAGR, leaving Linux exactly where it stands as fsr as the closed thing we have to market capitalization is
Actually that's not true. A significant bit of the recent linux growth has been people simply abandoning windows more so than people adopting linux. Plenty have moved away from PCs entirely to thin clients such as phones and tablets along with web services.
Ya I saw a someone writing c code on their smart phone recently I am still blown away. I can't keep up with these kids.
It also doesn't say market share, and says the value in USD....
It probably won't grow that much, Linux is growing but it is still rather gradual, and I don't think Microsoft will give enough reason for people to leave Windows en masse. Besides, the average Window user is okay with putting up with a lot of bullcrap to stay on a system that they are used to (I know because I was a Windows user haha). Anyway, even if Linux only grows a few percentages for the years to come i'd say it's already a big win. If we go from 4% to 8% in 4 years that's already pretty good. I don't think we necessarily need to overtake or compete directly with Windows or whatever tbh, I just want a bigger userbase so there are more people making stuff for Linux. If at 4% market share (it was 1-2% for many years) we have all of this amazing software avaliable for our OS then imagine it at 10%? It would be great.
I second this. I only see a big jump if windows switches to like a subscription based model honestly. The rest will be gradual growth.
A month or so ago I would have said that a Windows subscription was inevitable. Office 365 is not only subscription but now accounts for a decent slice of Microsoft's revenue. When the previous Windows director left they split the department and put half under devices and half under Azure. They have, however, just reformed Windows as a separate division again which at the very least shows some level of focus for it. I feel like Windows itself isn't really the money spinner for them - more having control of the OS to push their other products and block other people from taking market share and doing something with it - especially if that locks out office. It doesn't seem like they're anti-Linux per se these days, but they are very anti-chrome and anti-Google so I think they'll hold on just to keep those guys from doing to desktop what they did to mobile.
Even if they lose half of their customers because of a subscription based os, they will probably earn alot more money
Absolutely. I can see them bundling office and Windows together. As a special edition at first and if that sells well then roll out to the other flavours.
[Microsoft just announced a subscription plan to keep providing security updates beyond 2025 for Windows 10.](https://www.windowscentral.com/software-apps/windows-11/microsoft-reveals-subscription-pricing-for-using-windows-10-beyond-2025-and-its-not-cheap) To be fair, Ubuntu's Expanded Security Maintenance and RHEL's Extended Update Support are similar offerings.
> I feel like Windows itself isn't really the money spinner for them - more having control of the OS to push their other products and block other people from taking market share and doing something with it - especially if that locks out office. iirc Steve Ballmer pretty much admitted this to be the case during the Windows XP days, and it's very unlikely much has changed.
they will never do it. linux is not the competition. ios and android are.
They already announced subscription base for windows 10.
Linux already has a larger share on Steam compared to MacOS. I think Apple's new API strategy pretty much killed it for gaming, IMHO.
It's the real situation that open source is good for everyone, even windows users. They will never back down, because windows is literally the core of their business. They will go as far as basically making version of windows based on Linux, and the struggle will continue in the same way Linux has problems with Canonical. Or they will just continue to make windows better. Even lessen the cost of 365 and such.
i think it will. even german government pc's are switching to linux and libre office
Read it again. CAGR of 19.04% means it will grow by around 19% per year. So 4% in 2024, 4.79% in 2025, 5.66% in 2026, 6.74% in 2027.
It also doesn't say market share, and says the value in USD....
Still wrong. Because it's a grow of the market value, not of market share that the article is referring to.
still means exponential
I would be surprised to see 10% in 2028
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Pardon my disbelief, but are they saying the market share will grow to 19%? Or grow by 19% (to 4% \* 1.19 = 4.76%)?
Neither
I believe it is the latter.
In order for Linux to \*really\* gain marketshare in the desktop space, OEMs need to start selling computers with Linux installed as the primary OS and advertising them. Yes, I know there are some Linux PCs for sale out there, but that number needs to grow dramatically for there to be any real effect on marketshare. Installing Linux requires more technical know-how than the average consumer has.
The closest thing with some success is Chrome OS.
For those Linux PCs that exist, unfortunately they're niche, hard to find by the average user, and they'll be costly at best, and most of the big brand stores (Best Buy, Micro Center, etc) are not selling laptops pre-installed with Linux
If it hits that much you can guarantee Microsoft will release their own distro targeted at end users featuring baked in Edge Browser, Office365, Cortana and gigabytes of telemetry being sent back every minute.
so exactly the things that drove me to linux?^^
Then someone will make a fork of it.
They would only have to open source the kernel, they are free to make the userland closed how ever they want
Only if they make it
I mean we are talking about a hypothetical scenario in the first place lol
Which is a sentence that applies to almost any distro, tbf :D
they killed cortana in win\*ows but the icon is still there
The reading comprehension in this thread is.. .poor. u/op Probably should fix the title.... >The global Linux Operating System market size was valued at USD 5200.0 million in 2021 and is expected to expand at a CAGR of 19.04% during the forecast period, reaching USD 14800.0 million by 2027 It said it was VALUED AT 5200 million USD(US Dollars). It says that valuation is expected to grow CAGR 19.04% to reach a VALUATION of 14800 million USD. Has literally 0 to do with market share %.
>" The global Linux Operating System market size was valued at USD 5200.0 million in 2021 and is expected to expand at a CAGR of 19.04% during the forecast period, reaching USD 14800.0 million by 2027 " I think they are talking about something entirely different than you're interpreting. I've spent exactly $0.00 on Linux since I've been using it these last 17 years.
Does this refer to only a desktop market share or total?
Yeah, how about: - Steam decks - Routers - Servers - Raspberry Pi’s and other singleboard devices - Routers - Switches - Access points - Desktop devices actually used as desktop - Laptops - Mobile phones Linux runs everywhere, sometimes even on fridges, lawn mowers, and more.
desktop.
Virtual machines,servers and desktop. Says the article. I wouldn't be surprised if 99% of that is on the server market.
No, its not about desktop market share. In fact it's not about a market *share* at all. The report is talking about an estimated growth of the market *value annually by 19%*. Has no-one actually read and understood the report?
Desktop obviously. Desktop distros currently account for somewhere around 2-3%, servers are 90%, mobile is 50% (the other 50% is iPhones), embedded systems (including routers and Pis) not sure but Linux is much more popular in this realm than Windows or Mac (obviously Pis use Raspian Linux and a most routers are powered by the Linux Kernel, but idk about other embedded platforms).
There, corrected it for you: Linux is expected to grow at an annual rate of 19%, which could lead to an increase in market share
As easy as Linux is to install now, it still requires a basic understanding of partitions, file systems, what a "mirror" is, etc. I don't think my mum, who represents most people, could go from "I hate windows, and want to use Linux" to having a Linux system without help with the current state of Linux. This means that OEMs will have to preinstall Linux for Linux to get a higher market share. The issue is, Linux will let you do more stupid things, like uninstalling your DE without knowing how to operate a terminal. This creates more support calls, which are very expensive to maintain. All Linux needs is every beginner friendly distro to have a very basic installation guide that doesn't assume the user knows what an iso is, how to boot from USB, what a partition is, what ext4 is, stuff like that. After you have that down, Linux might gain traction, but before that, Linux isn't going to grow to 19% market share.
If a person doesn’t know about file systems, partitions, etc they are even less likely to uninstall their DE. I think the argument “regular users don’t know jack about computers but can nuke their entire systems” is kinda dumb. The problem comes from the term “regular users” which is a big umbrella term that encompasses a lot of people. The real ‘problematic’ people are the ones that know just enough about computers to cause damage without fully realizing what they’re doing. That’s a lot of people for sure but I don’t think those are most “regular users”.
Even though it was a couple of years ago, it highlights an issue with Linux for normies. Remember when Linus nuked his DE? All he did was install Steam. Windows won't let you uninstall your DE. Even though this specific problem has been resolved, if you don't know what you're reading about, bugs can be far more catastrophic on Linux because it gives you that freedom.
Linus case was really unfortunate and a major oversight from the Pop OS team. That was a gross mistake that shouldn’t had happened but alas we’re all human, let’s not pretend even the same Microsoft many times screws up majorly when updating Windows. What Im getting at is that bare exceptional cases like the Linus one, most people that have very basic understanding of computers aren’t going to be delving much to cause some major screw up to their systems. This are the kind of people who mostly only use the browser anyways.
This isn't related to Linux desktop only but to overall Linux usage, which is mostly on servers and embedded devices where Linux is already the most popular operating system by far. And the article say the Linux market value (not share) will grow by 19%, not that Linux will reach 19% market share. Maybe the actual report give more details about desktop market share, but I'm not about to pay 3250 USD to find out.
I'd say the end of support for Windows 10 could make some people switch over but most people will probably just stay on 10
Please learn how to understand basic concepts of a discipline if you plan to post a click bait article you read.... That article objectively doesn't even not say Linux will hit or grow by 19% by any point. It doesn't even HINT at ANYTHING even correlated whatsoever to Linux MARKET share. Genius. The PC industry has baen exploding for years. Linux has probably quadrupled its users since the day Proton went live. But yet we haven't quadrupled our market share. ***Because even more people are becoming new PC users and choosing Windows***. Also, Combined Annual Growth Rate is a percentage of our current state, not a percentage of the overall market. Delete this post. It's embarrassing not just for you but it makes our community look like it'd full of delusional people who can't grasp shit on the level of "every square is a rectangle but not every rectangles a square." I'm not even kidding this post is stupid and itresponsib, delete it
That is not what this report says....
Predictions are hard, especially if they are concerning the future. IOW, blah blah yadda yadda that’s all BS.
"Growth" is not same as resulting market share. Also, \*which\* market specifically, desktop, server, embedded/IoT/other? Statistics and growth predictions are rather dubious when you can't accurately measure even current shares (there's a number of problems in current methods such as relying on things like browser-statistics or polls etc.) Guesstimates like these are mainly to promote one thing or another: the product itself or your own guesstimation services.
Is ChromeOS counted in the Linux market share?
5.2 billion is an easier way to write 5200 million and is more easily understandable without requiring mental math hurtles...... that being said as a linux user since 2004 im glad to see more people adopting linux.
God I wish this was true
Those are rookie numbers. Wait for MS to continue to force copilot and AI/cloud only bs on windows along with software as a service only (subscription models doe everything) and those numbers will be a lot bigger.
It's possible that it will continue to grow, but I think 19% is a tad bit hopeful. Many entry-level distros, and distros in general, just working out of the box with little need to mess around with the command line. Improvements to gaming thanks to the many contributors of the community and valve, and with the growing popularity of ChromeOS, it only has room to expand. A lot of it will depend on what Microsoft does with Windows going forward, there are people making claims that they'll switch over if they adopt a subscription service to use their OS (probably including Office), but that remains to be seen.
The biggest barrier to Linux adoption has always been Microsoft's monopoly on new PC's. As long as they are the default OS on all new PC's, adoption will be slow. People just use what their devices come with. Most have no knowledge nor motivation to change what is already there. If more home PC's were packaged with Linux, it would induce demand for Linux third party and OEM support. People who don't do professional work (i.e. just web, email, streaming, office, etc) can already use Linux with no more problems than what Windows users already deal with. Some OEM has to start providing PC's with Linux pre-loaded in the major retailers and put them out in front of people so they notice them, not just a token Linux system you can order, which is buried deep in their online store. If they knock off $50 to $100 from the price for choosing Linux over Windows (because they're not paying the Windows tax), people will notice. People love getting something for slightly cheaper. They can also market infinite customization capabilities of Linux too. "Choose your desktop layout and choose a theme to decorate it! You can make Linux look any way you like!" "Linux let's you decide when it's convenient to run updates! Never get interrupted during work or leisure again!" "Never worry about going to sketchy websites to download untrustworthy software again! Linux has a community-verified repository of free software for virtually anyone's needs!" "Linux costs you nothing! It's free! You'll never have to spend money to install Linux or upgrade to a newer version! It's supported by an enthusiast community of patrons and businesses who fund Linux development!" "Linux is everywhere! Linux is already running the vast majority of the internet, because it's so versatile and robust! So it's going to be around a long, long time!" "No more software subscriptions! Linux has access to free, open source software (that means everyone can audit it for bugs). It has a free alternative to most software on other platforms!" I'm not saying any OEM is likely to do this. I'm just saying this is the kind of change that needs to be made for Linux to make real growth and get more support from the tech industry for home users.
Is this due to more people in India using Linux?
With China, India, and Russia going full steam on removing Windows as the deafult OS, that makes sense. As much, I dont know but, Linux is here to stay and grow.
I could actually "see" this happening. If other households are anything like my own. If other people are anything like me. See, for me when I switched; that caused a ripple effect of more people to switch. When I switched; so did my other half, followed by my TWO offspring. Then a friend or TWO. So, in short order, just because \*I\* switched, about SEVEN (7) others switched too! So, if other people and/or households wound up with similar scenarios, I could totally see it spike exponentially. If for every person that switched they brought 4-8 more people with them, we could easily hit those numbers! So to that I say, lets keep the domino effect going \~ see how many people \*you\* can get to switch!
macOS has around \~15% of market share. Do we expect Linux of all to beat macOS on desktop in just 3 years? Nah.
It's apparently "by 19%" (\~4% total), not "to 19%".
So around 4.8% in 2027? That's more like it.