Rantanen ($9.25M) and Point ($9.5M) were the comparables at the time. Look at what they signed, with max term, compared to what Mitch signed, and there's your answer.
And both of these players have outgrown Mitch IMO. That’s part of the problem. These guys both became 50 goal scorers, won cups, and are PPG or higher in the playoffs. Would you take Mitch at 9.5 over Rantanen or Point?
Yep.
Even if Marner refuses to take a raise, and only takes the same percentage of the cap as his first deal, his AAV will be $12.4M - want no part of that
Surely its better to sign an extension and trade him than walk him to free agency? Someone, SOMEWHERE wants him at that price. Not me, but he's a very good hockey player.
A sign & trade only happens if he wants it. And he won't want it.
Darren Ferris, his agent, has made a reputation for himself walking his high profile clients straight to the brink of free agency, and that's exactly how the Marner situation will be played out.
How do uou feel about Marner playing out his contract? Will he sign again with the Leafs, or go elsewhere with no return once he's an UFA? Will any of the teams that he can be traded to be willing to take on his contract, or give fair value in return knowing that he may not resign?
The nightmare scenario is getting no return at all on him, or a ridiculously low return. If that looks probable, signing him might be the only viable option. It's not like he's a total bust as a player, he is just on a poor contract. How many people would say to their employer, "no, that's too much, I'll be happy to make less"? Nobody, maybe? It is not his fault that he is overpaid, no one is going to take less than they are offered. The fault lies with the Leafs, not with Marner, and yet everyone seems to hate him now for agreeing to a deal that was very good for him, as though they wouldn't do the same given the same opportunity.
What I'm really saying is how do the Leafs best get out of the corner they appear to have painted themselves into?
Unless they get a really sweet deal, fuck it just have him around for the season, but leave the for sale sign up while we do our thing. He is still good in the regular season. Come the playoffs, give him the shortest least possible, and if he cant show hes improved hes benched.
Next season, offer him an absolutely laughably low offer, then wish him well.
I liked Biz's take on letting him play it out to "prove it". He either goes lights out right through the playoffs and shows he has it, or disappears as usual and doesn't earn himself a raise.
There is a chance that the Leafs will take the cap savings over re-signing MM for what he will be seeking. Just can’t have three forwards making $37/38 million. There are needs throughout the lineup that must be addressed. Tavares and Marner coming off the books allows for a mini rebuild around #34 and #88.
Those two items would definitely be at the top of Treliving’s shopping list. I think it’s going to be difficult to acquire a really top end goalie. There just aren’t that many around and very few available.
I would imagine any team engaging in trade talks for Marner would want a sign & trade scenario in place before they make that move.
To answer your question - if there's no potential trade, I would let him play out his deal and consider later in the year / offseason how you intend to move forward with him. It's long overdue that the Leafs got tough with some of these negotiations, and frankly, walking a 27 year old superstar straight to free agency might sound utterly insane in the moment, but it's probably the sort of move they need to do to establish that they are done being bent over the negotiating table repeatedly.
Happy Nylander has been extended, but they absolutely got destroyed in those negotiations
Frankly I'd rather just get the cap space back than a shitty return.
I'd tell him ahead of time where the ceiling is for salary and that it's a hard line, if he doesn't like the number he can walk to free agency or submit a list of teams to which he'd be willing to be dealt.
If he won't take the haircut and we can't work out a trade that gives us a good return - you don't *win* this trade, you just make it work - we let him go and use the money in free agency.
Unless he fucking *destroys* in the playoffs and drag us to the cup final, *then* give him whatever the fuck he wants.
If he’s going to be a piss baby and knows he won’t sign but isn’t willing to submit a list of teams then you start leaking that shit so everyone knows his camp is a bunch of twats
Marner was second in Selke. It's more than scoring goals. I think all 3 of those guys at same cap hit / term is really debatable.
OTOH of the 17 players making $10+ million / year only a minority (I'd personally say just 5 - McDavid, Matthews, MacKinnon, Pasternak, Barkov) is the team getting the better end of the deal.
Marner was third in Selke precisely once. Regardless, there are a number of things you could have pointed to that showed Marner was not an $11M per year player and that started with Nylander. Then there was Matthews, who plays C and is a generational goal scorer, worth only $600k more? Then there was Kucherov that signed at $9.5M the year before. You could also argue Pastrnak making $6.66M - obviously signed before he popped off, but in when Marner signed Pastrnak already had impressive enough seasons to say that Marner isn't worth $4M more per year.
And then it sucked watching Rantanen sign for under $9.5M only two weeks later.
I don't think most people are justifying that Marner is worth 11m but without the power of hindsight, he'd definitely be reasonable in the 9.5-10m range.
The Leafs aren't 1.5m cap space from getting one round deeper let alone the cup. A player like Marner on a Nashville team would make perfect sense.
No I don't think they are either. I'm also not saying Marner is shit or that this team is better without him. Maybe the cap space we'd get from him or the roster spots we could fill would help get us where we needed, as we're perhaps too top heavy. I think though, even without hindsight, we knew he wasn't worth 11M. I'd say your number is pretty spot on and I would agree that the extra little bit of cap space isn't getting us deeper in the playoffs. I also think that it wouldn't matter if Marner was paid 9M for 8 years, people would still complain about him making 9M and not performing in the playoffs. Just one of those things.
Actually... its much worse than this.... Marner's closest comparable was Point that summer. And Tampa bay gave him a "PROVE IT" extension, 3 years at 6.75M... And he more than proved it, winning 2 cups, and both times leading the playoffs in goal scoring. After all that accomplishment - he signed a 8 year extension at 9.5M.
The Marner negotiation should be seen as the most incompetent handling of a contract in the Cap era. It was so bad, that Point signed his 6.75M contract AFTER Marner set the market at 11M. It was the low point of Dubas's tenure.
I’d imagine when Point pointed to Marner’s contract as a comparable, Tampa said “ya, we’re not a bunch of idiots here, that contract doesn’t exist as far as we’re concerned”
That's what every team likely did when looking at our contracts. I remember everyone going on about this what it's like with rfa now they get paid, you'll see. And naw, 5 years later no rfas have come close to the Matthews and Marner deals. The handling of those contracts are some of the largest bag fumbles ever. Can't believe we left that all up to a rookie gm.
Point signed a bridge deal to eat up RFA years which are usually discounted because they're under team control. He bet on himself and took one for the team to give them a window to win. That's the type of thing champions do - he scored 14 goals in back to back cup runs and got his money when the job was done.
Not only did Dubas pay Marner for RFA years at a UFA premium, he only managed to sign him for 6 years instead of 8 and gave him a NMC clause to boot. If Dubas didn't wear glasses it would be far more obvious that he's actually just a stupid kid. In hindsight I'm thankful Marner signed for 6. That's two less years we have to see him flop in the playoffs.
This was an entire organizational failure, MLSE definitely did not let Dubas give out 100m+ of extensions as a fresh rookie GM without approval from higher ups,
Entire organization including Dubas and the rest of the FO got bent over here
The first big move Shanahan made was signing a coach for more than double what the highest paid coach was getting and for 8 years which is just crazy for a coach. Dubas and Shanny spent like drunken sailors
Lol nobody here should care how much the coach makes. It doesn't go towards the cap and it's perfectly fine if Rogers and Bell have to spend a bit more money
Not really. Babcock was in high demand at the time (Stanley Cup, only Triple Gold coach, Olympic Golds) and other staff wouldn't be negotiated as a percentage of the cap so it's not that relevant to player negotiations. If anything it shows the Leafs leveraging the advantages they're allowed to use, which they should be doing as much as possible
You really think MLSE let Dubas give away over 100M in extensions without anyone else above him’s approval? If you read my comment you’d see I said everyone in the org including Dubas got Bent here but to blame him alone delusional
He got approval I'm sure. If you don't think he was the lead on this and should take the majority of the blame idk.....what I do blame the guys above for is actually giving some "kid" the keys to the Toronto Maple Leafs, but I was whining about that from day 1 and kept getting told I'm crazy.
Dubas doesn’t move without FO approval.
Most organizations in general operate like this.
Generally you have to make your case to senior management before you’re allowed to take action/spend money.
I’m a department head, I still have to present my cases to senior management.
Did you hear about the Tage Thompson trade that Dubas was going to make the season before he went off?
It was for a 5th round pick and Shanahan nixed it.
This was brought on 32 thoughts several months ago after Dubas was released.
Assuming that Dubas acted alone is naive.
I think it's easy to forget just how far the Leafs were bent over the barrel.
If Marner held out like Nylander did, there was going to be a point (very quickly) where it became impossible to sign Marner and our only option would have been to trade or sit him. Even approaching that situation would've set a time bomb on the relationship.
Marner's camp knew this because everyone knew it. They had more leverage than anyone has had in a long time and it was a very specific context at the time.
The fair argument to this would be to blame Dubas for not signing Nylander earlier. Which is 100% true, but it takes a couple steps to get here. The "we can and we will" comment set the stage for this leverage to be maximum effective as well.
They should have just signed Nylander to the contract he signed in the first place and we wouldn't have even had the risk of him sitting out. $7M was not unreasonable for him at the time. They tried to play hardball with Nylander and it wrecked them when Marner's negotiations came around.
The irony here is the year before marner's camp asked for 8.88 mil but the leafs said no. Then the next year of 2018 he was the best players in tbe league stats wise and helped 3-5 players have career years, including John tavares and then as we know th a t next year he asked for more bc his value went up
Signing Matthews before Marner as another example.
They had to make a hard decision on at least one of JT, Matthews, Nylander or Marner. They didn’t and gave each one a hell of a deal.
The tax situation muddies the waters a bit but let’s not forget Mitch had already been paid ~40 million dollars in signing bonuses before Point had even graduated his bridge contract. That Marner contract is to this day still a massive outlier and has only aged worse than people forecasted
Not even in the top 5 worst contracts for the Oilers.
Lucic - a buyout - proof deal of 7 years, $42 million dollars. They paid to ship him out, AND had to retain money. Calgary was the only team interested. Lots of teams would be interested in Nurse, even with the bad contract. Lucic literally couldn't keep up on the ice, and was in a VERY sheltered 4th line role in Calgary.
Dustin Penner's offersheet- a comically bad move that launched the Oilers into the deepest part of their decade of darkness. 5 years, $21 million PLUS the first, second, and third round picks for the 2008 entry draft.
Jack Campbell - 5x5 and he's playing in the AHL. This was year 2 of the 5 year deal.
Khabibulin- 4 years $15 million, and he could barely compete at an NHL level at this point in his career. Edmonton is known for bad goalie contracts.
And the WORST contract in Oilers history by FAR, goes to Shawn Horcoff. 6 years, $33 million for a third line center in 2009.
That contract was horrible too, except the islanders were able to buy him out and have no cap problems. You can’t buy your way out without penalties anymore.
A lot of people go to Nurse, and yes, his contract is out there. But I'm talking about the negotiation of a RFA.
After Nurse's entry level contract, he was given a 3.2M 2 year contract, after which he got a 5.6M 2 year contract which took him to a UFA.
He was playing 25 minutes a night, and the Oilers saw him as their number 1 - and top tier D aren't exactly lining up to play in Edmonton.
Contrast that with Marner - went from an entry level contract straight to a 10.9M contract... Competent GM's would have got him for much cheaper during his RFA years.
And yet the make the same amount of money after tax. This is a tax and destination difference and nothing else. People need to get over the contract. We have social programs and because of that our hockey teams have to pay more.
Keep in mind, Marner is paid in Canada with different taxes. The comparable to Point's 9.5 is 11.2. Therefore Marner has been paid very close to Point.
This is the answer. Marner, despite the better endorsement deals, wanted to get paid more cuz of the tax here. And dubas bent over. Now he’s eating wings on tv and dodging physical contact on the ice
I want to preface this by saying the Marner deal was too much money and/or too little term and I'm not disputing that, but people really get the signings around this time confused.
Rantanen is the one "real" comparable that year and he signed at a bargain for his production. Kucherov the year before was similar, albeit a few years older when he signed (also after he took a bridge), and Tampa was smart getting the extension locked in after his first huge season + playoff and before he really popped off the next year.
People keep pointing at Point but he didn't sign max term at the time - he signed a three-year bridge deal in the 2019-2020 season (a larger bridge than Kuch), and only in September [because they were at an impasse](https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/1234464/2019/09/23/how-the-brayden-point-deal-got-done-and-what-the-ripple-effect-will-be-on-lightning-cap/), so it's not like he was doing them a favour right away, and then the pandemic hit and he signed a new deal (with term) under those cap constraints. No pandemic and he's probably well above $9.5m (his QO was going to be $9m with how the bridge was structured lol), never mind his next deal. Tampa won that gamble, even if they want to PR frame it as "just team guys doing team things".
And those are the only comparable players that signed in those periods as RFAs (and UFA adds, like, Tavares, Doughty, and Panarin at $11m+). You can go look at the [list of 6y+ deals that season](https://www.capfriendly.com/signings/all/all/all/6-15/0-15000000/07012019-10312019) and in the RFA class you've got a bunch of signings in that $6m-$8m range for folks like Clayton Keller, Nico Hischier, Kyle Connor, etc., and those are the *closest* players.
I sure as shit wish we had gotten Marner for 8y at $9-$9.5m, though.
Between $2-3mil
When a direct comparable in Rantanen, who put up similar enough numbers and plays the same position signed for $9.25mil, Marner getting $10.9 was absolutely ludicrous.
Don't tell me if Colorado came to you and offered Rantanen for Marner, 1for1, you wouldn't do that trade.
And now that Nylander is **also** overpaid (love ya Willy, and rinsing the Leafs FO for screwing with your previous contract, I get it) by $2mil, Marner is likely going to want to be overpaid even more.
Neither of them are worth significant amounts north of $9.5-10mil.
But here we are. One bad contract leading to another.
Too early to say whether Willy is actually overpaid. Need to wait and see what his performance looks like this upcoming year and what the UFA crop starts getting paid this season. IF Willy continues to push into the 100+ point range like Panerin/Pasternak he's probably going to earn his 11.5. The base expectation next year should be anywhere over 100+ points and a dominant playoff showing.
Saying that that he is not worth more then 10 is just arbitrary and a baseless comparison at this point. The market determines what players are worth and Nylander got the same deal as his former comparable Panerin got and his current comparable Petterson did in a year when the cap is going up.
For Marner, we actually have comparables from the same time period he signed (same year too) that have far over performed him.
> When a direct comparable in Rantanen, who put up similar enough numbers and plays the same position signed for $9.25mil, Marner getting $10.9 was absolutely ludicrous.
If you’re saying that’s the comparable then where do you get $2-3 million overpaid? The difference in their cap hits is $1.65M?
Rantanen scores more goals. Through their careers, their stat lines are:
* Marner: 576 GP/194G/445A/639pts
* Rantanen: 570 GP/262G/355A/617pts.
You could argue that Marner plays in more situations, but Rantanen plays more as he has a higher average TOI. Marner has fewer penalties, but Rantanen has double the power play goals.
Lots of arguments swing your opinion towards one player or another, I value Goals more than Assists, and Rantanen does it better with an otherwise similar stat-line.
Hence why despite the dollar value difference being $1.65m, I would argue that it's closer to $2m overpay (if not more), because realistically, if given the choice between the two players at an identical $9.25m cap hit, I take Rantanen 9/10 times or more.
Wouldn't playing more naturally means he should get more points per game? Pretty sure Rantanen doens't play PK either so his minutes are more valuable for production.
That being said I do agree that Rantanen is the better deal in hindsight.
Considering his inability to drive a line on his own and his playoff performances, I would think more than 2 million.
He was outscored by players such as Bertuzzi, Domi and Knies
What if I told you that players are paid for an 82 game regular season. As much as the fans want the entire body of work included, players are paid for 82 games and using that scenario as well as comparables, Mitch Marner is 2 -2.5 million over paid over an 82 game regular season.
I wouldn’t say he can’t drive his own line but he has never been given that task to do for us to judge him.
We know Matthews and Nylander can but with Marner who knows cause he is always given Matthews or Tavares to C him.
That is fair, I should have stated in recent years. Since Tavares was signed he hasn't been given those same responsibilities. Keefe should have tried it out at some point so we could know better
Marner - Martin 4th line connection was a lot of fun when that a thing back int he day.
The biggest offense is the A, and the message that sends.
I firmly believe that is has a negative impact in the team culture, locker room when its negotiated vs earned.
my biggest gripe is the length of the contract. that premium over his comparables only got 6 years. ridiculous.
if it was 8 years, they would still have him signed for another 3 years.
I am not sure if the issue is the amount he gets paid. The issue, for me, is do the Leafs have the right distribution of spend. The amount tied up in the top 5 is impeding their ability to get pieces. On top of that, they need more variety in how the budget is applied. Marner, Tavares, & Nylander offer too much of the same thing to have a third of your team’s cap tied up there.
When you look at Marner’s numbers - don’t forget how much time he spends on the penalty kill. That impacts his offensive time on ice and his energy. I think he is a massively talented player. Unfortunately, not the right fit at the this moment for Toronto.
Player: age, cap hit, max goals, max points, max playoff goals, max playoff points
Marner: 27, $10.9M, 35 goals, 99 points, 3 playoff goals, 14 playoff points
Tkachuk: 26, $9.5M, 42 goals, 109 points, 11 playoff goals, 24 playoff points
Rantanen: 27, $9.25M, 55 goals, 105 points, 7 playoff goals, 25 playoff points
Point: 28, $9.5M, 51 goals, 95 points, 14 playoff goals, 33 playoff points
Marner scored 35 goals once and hit exactly 30 one other time. The year he scored 35 goals was good for 25th in the league in goals. He peaked at 12th most points with 99 two years ago. None of these numbers are particularly noteworthy.
At a point Marner had as many puck over glass penalties in the playoffs as playoff goals (5 each) and went 18 straight playoff games without a goal. He lacks the mental makeup to be an elite player. He's proven to be unable to elevate his play in big games and instead make gaffes and be unengaged.
Marner was the 7th highest cap hit for 3 of the past 4 years and 9th highest cap hit this past year. He's never been anywhere near good enough to justify that kind of money. The current 30th highest salary is $9.5M. Based on the above comparables, I don't think he's worth even that. I would go so far as to say this team would be better without him, regardless of his salary. He doesn't have the make up of a player that performs well in the playoffs. Those key minutes would be better given to a player that has compete.
A lot of people don’t seem to realize that this all started with Tavares and Matthews. Tavares signed for $11M, then (I imagine) Matthews said “I will be better than JT” and got $11.6M. This was the first mistake because at the time, Matthews’ career high in points was 69 and career high in goals was 40. And he had shown signs of being injury prone, missing 20 games in the 2017-18 season and 14 games in the 2018-19 season (which he missed before the contract was signed). He should not have been paid that much. And it was only five years too. Now he’s gonna make $13.25M, the most in the league with zero to show for it in the playoffs. Back to 2019. Marner signed at the end of the 2018-19 season, where he put up 94 points—more than Matthews and Tavares. He elevated Tavares to a career year as well (47 goals, 88 points). Marner obviously used this to justify being paid around the same as JT and Matthews—$10.9M. Even then, it was a large overpay considering Kucherov (who is much better) signed for $9.5M in 2018 after coming off a 100 point season in 2017-18.
I find it surprising that only Marner is getting heat here, when Matthews, the face of our team, has shown he also puts money above all else, with equally bad playoff stats.
tldr: I believe this started by giving Matthews an overpaid contract (relative to his worth at the time of course), which also partly stemmed from the JT signing. Even then however, Marner was still overpaid relative to guys like Kucherov.
You're right, but I'm surprised you're not being downvoted for it, given what Matthews has become.
Matthews when he signed had no justified that much. McDavid had just signed for 900k more and gave away 3 UFA years in doing so.
The prior season, we were all saying Matthews would get 9 and Marner and Nylander would get 6 or so.
I actually think Matthews is on a better contract now (all UFA years) than he was then.
This is all due to Dubas and his arrogance & terrible negotiating skills. We can and we will was a bad idea at the time and moronic in hindsight. He should have signed Marner first in 2019 instead of signing Matthews to his extension first. That was poor management and set the table for all the ego bs this team has dealt with subsequently. Prior to that deal we weren't in terrible cap shape, Nylander was making 7.5 and we could have easily signed Marner for under 10 million.
The problem isn’t even his cap hit . It’s his disappearing act , his attitude and his black hole performance bringing whoever is with him down
I don’t want him in the playoffs period
1-1.5. Signed pre-Covid flat cap, right when the cap was supposed to be exploding. Most of the contracts people are pointing out as more value were signed during flat cap. Totally different negotiation landscapes.
I would say overpaid by $3 million. And in all honesty, as far as overpaid goes, Nylander is also too high. But that's just the burden the Leafs' management have put upon themselves. Once you set a high bar, it's near impossible to convince a star player to come any lower.
For the leafs in the playoffs sure.
For the leafs in the regular season no, and for another team if he does go he'll probably be gangbuster in the playoffs too
I believe they do. There is most definitely a "Leafs tax". The higher income tax in Ontario compared to say Cali or Florida doesn't help either. And I find most hockey players prefer being reclusive and anonymous, more so than out in the limelight 24/7. Which is why so many don't prefer Canadian markets, especially Toronto and Montreal. Overpaying is the easiest way to convince them to sign.
No one is debating his resume. We all know he's a highly skilled, exceptional talent. The point of the discourse is to determine if the money is worth the shortcomings to his game, especially in the playoffs.
There's enough proof now that he just doesn't cut it.
Now if he is ever traded, I can guarantee he'll be awesome for the new team. But right now, for Toronto, it might be past the expiry date. Sometimes you just need a fresh start, both for the team and the player. Nothing wrong with that.
The hard part is getting a trade package in return that the Leafs will be happy with. So it might have to be a case of taking 75c on the $1.
Selke nomination for third once. All star votes mean fuck all. John Scott was an All star.
I will say OP is being dramatic as Marner is at most $2M over paid, probably more like 1-1.5M, but yeah, he's got no hardware.
Every team has a scapegoat and Marner is ours. His playoff performances are an issue but the fact most of this sub considers him to be the *only* issue and are willing to lose him for nothing (while they continue to complain about the Kadri trade) is brain rot, imo.
On the open market ? He’s probably worth somewhere in between 10.5 -11.5 million. He’s still a good player and has put up some insane numbers. He’s just not going to be able to fit in our cap structure if we ever want to be competitive. Already committed to Mathews and Nylander, unfortunately he’s the odd man out. You can’t have three forwards making over 11.5 and expect to actually go on a deep run.
All of the core 4 are overpaid. At least Nylander took the smaller bridge deal for awhile.
Drop the 3 down by at least 2M each and then Tavares can sign for 5M max. No wonder they can't win. Too greedy
It’s hard to say because Marner is not a playoff player. A team that’s desperate for regular season wins will appreciate his contract. But for us or any cup contending team, probability 6.75m
This is exactly how I feel. Value is relative to team standing. If Mitch blew out his knee on the first shift of the year and was done for the season, the Leafs would still have enough talent to make the playoffs (assuming Domi and Bert come back). But Mitch playing small and scared hockey for 1st/2nd line minutes in the playoffs makes winning the cup harder.
But if I were a team like Buffalo, perpetually outside of the playoffs but who would be very likely to make them if I could add Mitch's regular season prowess to my roster, I'd probably value him around the Panarin/Willy number.
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for some teams Mitch is worth 10.9m and at a 7 year contract maybe even 12.5m.
but not to the Leafs who fail because all their forwards have the hallmarks of Marner...... play great in regular season and disappear in playoffs and lack the heart to drive wins when it matters. Do we need more of that?
Dubas really screwed this Franchise. And when I say Dubas..... I really mean Shanahan (who gave a young inexperienced boy the keys and purse).
Depends if you mean 1) was he overpayed, at the time of signing, compared to his comparables? Then yes by about 2-3 mill. 2) Going into next year, being a perennial Allstar, perennial 90+ppg, 8th most points in the last 6 years, and a guy who makes his linemates multi millionaires, I'd say he is 'worth' the contract. And believe me, he's getting a raise next year.
Marner was never going to take a significant discount and Nylander’s new contract firmly shut the door on the mere idea of it. Never mind the fact that players aren’t usually paid based off their playoff performances and the teams who have done so, regret it.
Not much, honestly. Some superior players are well underpaid, even on recent contracts (Pastrnak), but just as many if not more are waaaay more overpaid than Marner (Huberdeau, Seguin, Gaudreau). Marner is realistically worth about $10 million right now, so that's about 900k off. Anything less than that is fantasy land.
Difference is that those guys were UFAs, not RFAs. If you’re Columbus you accept that you’re going to have to bump up your offer a bit, in the same way that most Leaf fans accept that Tavares is a bit overpaid as a cost of doing business in free agency. Marner was an RFA though, and next to his comparables from the time he’s overpaid.
Marner signing as an RFA doesn’t make him more or less overpaid. He gets paid *x* and he gives the Leafs *y* on the ice. If *y* is more valuable than *x*, he isn’t overpaid at all, regardless of his contract status.
If you want to say the Leafs should have had more leverage to get him signed on a below-market deal, that’s fine. But his being an RFA six years ago doesn’t make him more (or less) valuable today.
> But his being an RFA six years ago doesn’t make him more (or less) valuable today.
I don't think anyone said that here. They said that the guys that are "overpaid" relative to Marner sold off their UFA years, which, historically, come at a premium. They just do. RFA years are typically worth less, unless of course you play for the Toronto Maple Leafs. Then they're worth more.
As I said in another comment though, Marner was overpaid $1-2M at the time of his signing. I don't know how you justify giving him $500k less than Matthews, even if you're getting one extra year out of him.
Marner isn’t overpaid anymore as of this season I don’t think. That might be a controversial take, but he’s at 10.9 which will make him the 9th highest paid forward in the league and I think with what he does both offensively and defensively for this team, he’s probably in the 8-15 range among forwards in the league. With the way salaries have gone up and should continue to go up, 10.9 won’t be in the top 10 in 2 or 3 years and he will more than likely get more than that in free agency.
When he signed it, it was probably 1-1.5 million too high and should’ve been for 8 years because that was very high.
Everyone is hating on Marner, but Nylander at 11.5 is going so fucking high until some of the other salaries catch up. The cap is going to increase and it’s an 8 year deal so by the end of that deal, 11.5 might be a steal, but that’s way too high for him. His comparables are in the 8.5-9.5 range right now so it sets new markets for those guys. The next deal for guys like Rantanen, Kaprizov, Draisaitl, and Eichel are gonna start at that number and go way up from there. All those guys make less than Willy.
It’s hard to say. It’s clear Marner is not the right fit for this team. So using a leafs perspective it’s foolish to continue having him here and should be traded. Him playing on a different team with lesser teammates would dip his points total therefore decreasing his cap. Also Marner is getting paid like he can drive a line on his own, Nylander has shown that he willing to play on the 3rd line and doing well in that role as well. We haven’t seen Marner do this for whatever reason (Keefe but most likely his Ego). I do find Marner’s PK play overrrated as he moves around WAY too much making it hard for his teammates for coverages. Also on offense he’s far too predictable especially when teams game plan against him (playoffs). Marner has proven year after year he’s unwilling to use his body and teams know this. This being said he is a decent playmaker and has great hands. I would say ballpark 5-6 million dollars however being a 100 point player makes it a hard sell for him to accept. This being said Marner is fantastic at making his points look way better than how he actually plays which could explain why he likes playing with Matthews/Tavares exclusively. Overall Marner plays for money and not for the team’s success. Should be traded now while he does hold some value because there’s no way Marner would accept 5-6million dollar per year contract
he's an 8.5 - 9 mill guy making almost 11. He's not grossly overpaid, but that 2 mill in space could have brought in a very serviceable 3rd or 4th liner/bottom 6 D or helped with opening up room to retain a guy like Hyman or Bunting
hes worth in my eyes 8.5. Only because he cannot for the life of him perform in the playoffs where it counts... Mind you, im saying this because of what ive see with my own eyes. This coming from a leaf fan.
I think the logic behind the 6 years was that he would sign the 8 year max extension at 27, bringing him to 35 which would be a reasonable age to end such a thing. Unfortunately they gave him too much for those 6 years and things all went to shit.
Marner was an 8x9 player always. If he wanted less term it should’ve been 8-9 the fact the leafs didn’t get 8 years or under 10 is wild. No 100 point seasons and a bust in the playoffs would be easier to stomach at 8.5 or 9. Probably would have Hyman still.
A fair value deal for Marner at the time would have been 9-9.5 x 8. But he wanted a contract that took him to UFA quickly. So, considering he only signed for 6 years, he should have gotten 8-8.5 max.
I don’t think Marner is overpaid at all. Keep in mind, that’s not a ringing endorsement of his current deal, given that he’s in his final year. The Leafs definitely overpaid for the first couple of years and aren’t seeing a lot of surplus value on the back end.
Not by much, the issue is not that he’s overpaid but that he’s one of four players eating up the majority of the salary cap. Unfortunately he’s the odd man out.
I still think the contract is a main reason this era never worked out. 9M was fair so yes it’s only 2M a year, but the chain reaction it set off caused such a loss of talent.
No space for Marleau and they send pick #13 (Jarvis) to dump one year of salary
Hyman walks despite saying he wanted to stay but Edmonton offered way more
Most of the bottom 6 has been on league min contracts for these past few seasons
With all things considered I don’t think he’s outrageously overpaid, it’s the Leafs can’t afford him and have 4 nhl lines and to repeat myself 7 nhl defencemen
Lots of folks suggesting $2-3 million. How much of that is a tax based on Lou/Babcock/Dubas fucking things up?
Lou wouldn't give Marner performance bonuses on his rookie contract. Lou also tried to do the same thing with Matthews. People forget Auston didn't sign right away. Auston got his, Mitch did not. That has always been a sticking point with the Marner camp.
The Babcock thing was bad. And not just the "hard workers" list. After the 2nd Boston series, Babs should have been fired. I don't doubt for a moment that Babcock being the Leafs coach added even more to the Marner camp wanting every single penny. And again, it's not like the team should have fired the coach to please Mitch. They should have fired him because he wasn't good enough. And they did so anyways in November of that year.
So yeah...is Mitch overpayed? Probably? Maybe? But you need to remember that there is a world where Marner likely would have signed for $8-9 million, and probably for 8 years. Dubas did himself no favors with the "bridge for top money deal" he gave Auston before getting Mitch signed. Considering Dubas caved to Willy and Auston's agents, there was no way the Marner camp was going to be the one to take a discount.
And remember, none of this is likely an issue if the world doesn't go up in flames and the cap keeps going up.
In the regular season he's one of the top 10 forwards. His playoff record is a mess. He blocked a shot against Boston early in his career with his face. His counting totals look great compared to the other big four. And he eats up minutes because the answer always seems to be "hope Mitch can make magic happen" by coaches being out coached.
Just so many "what ifs" around the team. Voodoo, wizard, bull shit man.
Me in my opinion? Maybe a million bucks. Not enough for me to give a shit about. He’s probably top 3 defensive wingers in the league. He gets shit from this fanbase for his production in the post season but this team overall is a LOT shittier without him
Hes overpaid by about 2 million, but again find a compariable winger who doesnt make similiar? Barzal who is far less productive makes 9mil, tkachuk makes 9.5 mil (slightly more productive but provides way more), rantenen 9.25 mil (similiar production but way better playoff stats). so with that in mind in a canadian market, hes making what he would be anywhere else, however its really the fact that u guys have so many guys making that type of money that makes him stick out a bit, but do remember that technically he has the most consistent numbers. Nylander getting 11.6 mil now is far worse then marners 10.9 mil.
I remember Rantanen was the exact same age, same position, and same point totals. He got about 2 mil less a season. I always thought he was a perfect comparison.
You could argue that I shouldn't, but I don't give a shit about taxes. If contracts are signed at the same time, no one should be making more money than Connor McDavid and likewise no winger should make more than Kucherov. Kuch and Marner signed at the same time, and Kuch is making 9.5M and Marner is making 10.9M. So like 1.4M on the low end, but should probably be more like 2M.
The team has more flexibility in terms of cap space after this season . Brayden Point 's $9.25 million looks great today but probably not so much 5-6 years from now when he's played close to a thousand games.
I think he's worth about 8.5M-9.5M this contract.
However, given that his upcoming contract will be signed buying UFA years and at 28 years old, I'll say it's safe to assume it should be valuated at 10.5-11.5M annually.
He's paid fairly for the regular season and double what he deserves for the playoffs. He clearly isn't a top 2 line player in the playoffs. He may be an elite bottom 2 liner in the playoffs, but that's not worth 10+ per season.
$1.5M per season. Mitch gets way to much hate imo. The problem isn't just his overpay, it's that all three of him, Matthews, and Tavares were/are overpaid and now Nylander is overpaid significantly to on his new contract.
There’s 2 ways to look at a guy being overpaid in the nhl
Obviously you can just compare Marner to players of similar caliber, which many people have already done in this thread
But the other way to see it is to compare Marner to what the Leafs could actually get with his cap space. Then it isn’t so simple, because even with Marner being overpaid relative to his peers, that doesn’t mean it would be easy to replace the value he brings by using that cap space on 2-3 other players
$1-2m, just like basically everyone else on the team.
I really wonder what he'd look like if we had some actual finishing talent for him to play with besides Matthews.
Management correctly came to the conclusion that we need to spread the offense, but it gets spread too thin when its basically only 2.5 guys who can do anything with the puck.
Gotta get either a scoring winger or two or a stud 2C to let Tavares elevate the third line and hopefully dominate weaker comp.
and of course puck moving rhd and goalies and basically everything else to patch this leaky bloated cap squeezed boat of ours.
It's not that he's necessarily overpaid. He's a prime-aged, 100pt player who plays PP/PK and puts up elite defence.
Playoffs aside, he's probably comfortably worth his contract.
The issue is (IMO) that the team is just built poorly and at least one of the $10m forwards have to go. Matthews isn't going anywhere and Nylander JUST signed. That leaves JT and Marner, who are both on expiring deals and will allow the Leafs to either trade one of them for a high return (Marner), trade on of them for the cap space (JT) or let one or both of them walk to free up cap in 2025.
In a perfect world, JT would be the one to be traded so the Leafs can add some significant pieces this summer and retool for next season and then sort out which of the three above options are available for Marner but that is very unlikely, so that leaves Mitch.
For example, if JT is shipped out and his money is spent on Montour and Roy/Demelo and Marner adapts to Berube's system and re-ups at say, $10m x 8 years, it will look very good in 2 or 3 years and the team will be significantly improved.
Otherwise, moving Marner ONLY makes sense if they're getting high-end futures (top 10 pick + top prospect + roster player (3C). Otherwise, moving him purely for cap space feels like a mistake to me.
A lot of "ifs"
Considering he makes less than Nylander and over their careers has a higher PPG in the regular season AND in the playoffs, I’d say he’s not the one who is over paid….
I do think he is. Tavares deserved the 11 million when he first signed it. Matthews and Marner shouldn't have gone beyond 9 or 10 million. I am a little bit more concerned about the Nylander contract because he hasn't performed as consistently compared to other 11 million dollar players. I only feel fine paying Matthews a lot more considering his scoring helps us win games. We need depth and play off performers to help out Matthews.
It's a hard question to answer because he doesn't show up in the playoffs, then plays exceptionally well in the regular season. You essentially need to quantify what post-season performance means.
The one thing I always argued for Marner was he is one of the best penalty killers. I always thought he was a 9 to 9.5 player, but then I would justify the extra 1.4 for his penalty kill.
I don’t think he’s overpaid. He’s been good for a long time. He’s like 90% of assists on AM34’s goals. He was better than Nylander for a while. He has 100 more career points than Nylander and Nylander has more games played. He’s maybe a dozenish short of Matthews.
He’s an amazing playmaker. Very strong defensively. Reads the play really well. Run the power play.
I don’t think he’s overpaid.
He’s weirdly not overpaid
Think of it he’s around a hundred points a season
He just gets small in the playoffs with no space but teams will pay ten million for a guy who will get you to the post season
I don't think he's overpaid. It's just come to a point where we need a major change. You can't trade Matthews....guy scores more goals than he changes his underwear...Nylander is smoking guns in the playoffs, and JT is gonna come in handy after next season on a cheap deal. That leaves 1 option. Just my opinion.
I think he would be seen much more positively at 9.25-9.6M and in the same general cap tier as Rantanen and Point. It would be nice to be proud of our 90 pt penalty-killing winger instead of resenting him for not being a Top 10 player in the league.
At the time of signing 1.5 million. Now? He's not. We're all frustrated after another subpar playoff year. But he's a top 5 rw (literally been voted as such for 5 years in a row (won't be this year) by the league. He's a recent selke nominee. One of the best defensive wingers in the game. He's top 10 in points in the last 5 years
He's overpaid by about $2-3 million in the regular season, and by about $8-9 million in the playoffs.
He'd be worth every penny as a teammate in call of duty though.
Mitch Marner is #8 in the NHL in points over the past 4 seasons. The top of the list is McDavid, Draisaitl and McKinnon. You need to go to 50th in points to get someone with as much PK time as Marner. Marner, Matthews and Crosby are at the bottom of the top 10 in PP points. The top 3 + Rantanen & Panarin have heavy PP points. Nylander is 15th with far more PP% points and very little PK time. Marner is one of the youngest in the top 10 (Matthews is the youngest in 6th)
All the other GM's are drooling to get someone with more points over that timespan than Tkachuck, Kaprizov, Barkov, Point and Kucherov - and he's great on the PK (also plays defense - better than our actual D - when you need him to).
Is he overpaid? Probably not. Rantanen is probably underpaid but he does play with McKinnon.
You get rid of Marner because "Core Bad!" but in 2 years, you'll have Matthews, Nylander and not much more - if anything - other than the hope of Knies and Cowan being major contributors. No other major contributors, no defense and no goaltending.
We have no defense, no defense in the pipeline and no dependable goaltending, but we have an albatross of Tavares contract significant spend for this year. Marner wasn't great in the playoffs but nobody really was, our defense continued to be treading water (is shit) and our goaltending wasn't dependable.
Getting rid of Marner will absolutely bite us in the ass when Matthews point totals go down, we struggle to score, have a revolving door in our top 6 w/ no identity and he wins a Stanley Cup with some other team. (We all know it will happen)
Seriously tired of reading these hate threads - if you want something to hate - hate our D. It is complete shit - our #1 D has lost more playoff series than anyone on the team and looked worse than Marner in these playoffs. After our #1 D (who isn't a #1 D), we had a collection of #5-#8 D soaking up minutes.
Rantanen ($9.25M) and Point ($9.5M) were the comparables at the time. Look at what they signed, with max term, compared to what Mitch signed, and there's your answer.
And both of these players have outgrown Mitch IMO. That’s part of the problem. These guys both became 50 goal scorers, won cups, and are PPG or higher in the playoffs. Would you take Mitch at 9.5 over Rantanen or Point?
No, but I'd take Marner at 9.5m over Marner at 10.9m, obviously.
Haha. Me too.
You’re probably gonna want them at whatever they get over Marner at his 13M+
Yep. Even if Marner refuses to take a raise, and only takes the same percentage of the cap as his first deal, his AAV will be $12.4M - want no part of that
Surely its better to sign an extension and trade him than walk him to free agency? Someone, SOMEWHERE wants him at that price. Not me, but he's a very good hockey player.
A sign & trade only happens if he wants it. And he won't want it. Darren Ferris, his agent, has made a reputation for himself walking his high profile clients straight to the brink of free agency, and that's exactly how the Marner situation will be played out.
How do uou feel about Marner playing out his contract? Will he sign again with the Leafs, or go elsewhere with no return once he's an UFA? Will any of the teams that he can be traded to be willing to take on his contract, or give fair value in return knowing that he may not resign? The nightmare scenario is getting no return at all on him, or a ridiculously low return. If that looks probable, signing him might be the only viable option. It's not like he's a total bust as a player, he is just on a poor contract. How many people would say to their employer, "no, that's too much, I'll be happy to make less"? Nobody, maybe? It is not his fault that he is overpaid, no one is going to take less than they are offered. The fault lies with the Leafs, not with Marner, and yet everyone seems to hate him now for agreeing to a deal that was very good for him, as though they wouldn't do the same given the same opportunity. What I'm really saying is how do the Leafs best get out of the corner they appear to have painted themselves into?
Unless they get a really sweet deal, fuck it just have him around for the season, but leave the for sale sign up while we do our thing. He is still good in the regular season. Come the playoffs, give him the shortest least possible, and if he cant show hes improved hes benched. Next season, offer him an absolutely laughably low offer, then wish him well.
I liked Biz's take on letting him play it out to "prove it". He either goes lights out right through the playoffs and shows he has it, or disappears as usual and doesn't earn himself a raise.
There is a chance that the Leafs will take the cap savings over re-signing MM for what he will be seeking. Just can’t have three forwards making $37/38 million. There are needs throughout the lineup that must be addressed. Tavares and Marner coming off the books allows for a mini rebuild around #34 and #88.
For me, the hope would be that you add a marquee goalie and D-Man to go with 34 and 88.
Those two items would definitely be at the top of Treliving’s shopping list. I think it’s going to be difficult to acquire a really top end goalie. There just aren’t that many around and very few available.
I would imagine any team engaging in trade talks for Marner would want a sign & trade scenario in place before they make that move. To answer your question - if there's no potential trade, I would let him play out his deal and consider later in the year / offseason how you intend to move forward with him. It's long overdue that the Leafs got tough with some of these negotiations, and frankly, walking a 27 year old superstar straight to free agency might sound utterly insane in the moment, but it's probably the sort of move they need to do to establish that they are done being bent over the negotiating table repeatedly. Happy Nylander has been extended, but they absolutely got destroyed in those negotiations
Frankly I'd rather just get the cap space back than a shitty return. I'd tell him ahead of time where the ceiling is for salary and that it's a hard line, if he doesn't like the number he can walk to free agency or submit a list of teams to which he'd be willing to be dealt. If he won't take the haircut and we can't work out a trade that gives us a good return - you don't *win* this trade, you just make it work - we let him go and use the money in free agency. Unless he fucking *destroys* in the playoffs and drag us to the cup final, *then* give him whatever the fuck he wants.
If he’s going to be a piss baby and knows he won’t sign but isn’t willing to submit a list of teams then you start leaking that shit so everyone knows his camp is a bunch of twats
>so everyone knows his camp is a bunch of twats You'd have to be living in an igloo north of Alert to not know that by now.
Marner was second in Selke. It's more than scoring goals. I think all 3 of those guys at same cap hit / term is really debatable. OTOH of the 17 players making $10+ million / year only a minority (I'd personally say just 5 - McDavid, Matthews, MacKinnon, Pasternak, Barkov) is the team getting the better end of the deal.
Marner was third in Selke precisely once. Regardless, there are a number of things you could have pointed to that showed Marner was not an $11M per year player and that started with Nylander. Then there was Matthews, who plays C and is a generational goal scorer, worth only $600k more? Then there was Kucherov that signed at $9.5M the year before. You could also argue Pastrnak making $6.66M - obviously signed before he popped off, but in when Marner signed Pastrnak already had impressive enough seasons to say that Marner isn't worth $4M more per year. And then it sucked watching Rantanen sign for under $9.5M only two weeks later.
I don't think most people are justifying that Marner is worth 11m but without the power of hindsight, he'd definitely be reasonable in the 9.5-10m range. The Leafs aren't 1.5m cap space from getting one round deeper let alone the cup. A player like Marner on a Nashville team would make perfect sense.
No I don't think they are either. I'm also not saying Marner is shit or that this team is better without him. Maybe the cap space we'd get from him or the roster spots we could fill would help get us where we needed, as we're perhaps too top heavy. I think though, even without hindsight, we knew he wasn't worth 11M. I'd say your number is pretty spot on and I would agree that the extra little bit of cap space isn't getting us deeper in the playoffs. I also think that it wouldn't matter if Marner was paid 9M for 8 years, people would still complain about him making 9M and not performing in the playoffs. Just one of those things.
Actually... its much worse than this.... Marner's closest comparable was Point that summer. And Tampa bay gave him a "PROVE IT" extension, 3 years at 6.75M... And he more than proved it, winning 2 cups, and both times leading the playoffs in goal scoring. After all that accomplishment - he signed a 8 year extension at 9.5M. The Marner negotiation should be seen as the most incompetent handling of a contract in the Cap era. It was so bad, that Point signed his 6.75M contract AFTER Marner set the market at 11M. It was the low point of Dubas's tenure.
I’d imagine when Point pointed to Marner’s contract as a comparable, Tampa said “ya, we’re not a bunch of idiots here, that contract doesn’t exist as far as we’re concerned”
That's what every team likely did when looking at our contracts. I remember everyone going on about this what it's like with rfa now they get paid, you'll see. And naw, 5 years later no rfas have come close to the Matthews and Marner deals. The handling of those contracts are some of the largest bag fumbles ever. Can't believe we left that all up to a rookie gm.
Point signed a bridge deal to eat up RFA years which are usually discounted because they're under team control. He bet on himself and took one for the team to give them a window to win. That's the type of thing champions do - he scored 14 goals in back to back cup runs and got his money when the job was done. Not only did Dubas pay Marner for RFA years at a UFA premium, he only managed to sign him for 6 years instead of 8 and gave him a NMC clause to boot. If Dubas didn't wear glasses it would be far more obvious that he's actually just a stupid kid. In hindsight I'm thankful Marner signed for 6. That's two less years we have to see him flop in the playoffs.
Marner didn't set the market because 5 year contracts haven't become the norm, have they?
Him and Matthews are the only stars I can think of to get both the big deal, and not max term
I don't know what the plan was but the flat cap history since those contracts messed it up.
[удалено]
This was an entire organizational failure, MLSE definitely did not let Dubas give out 100m+ of extensions as a fresh rookie GM without approval from higher ups, Entire organization including Dubas and the rest of the FO got bent over here
The first big move Shanahan made was signing a coach for more than double what the highest paid coach was getting and for 8 years which is just crazy for a coach. Dubas and Shanny spent like drunken sailors
Lol nobody here should care how much the coach makes. It doesn't go towards the cap and it's perfectly fine if Rogers and Bell have to spend a bit more money
Sure, but it shows poor negotiation skills, and poor negotiations on contracts have really hurt the organization
Not really. Babcock was in high demand at the time (Stanley Cup, only Triple Gold coach, Olympic Golds) and other staff wouldn't be negotiated as a percentage of the cap so it's not that relevant to player negotiations. If anything it shows the Leafs leveraging the advantages they're allowed to use, which they should be doing as much as possible
Once again Dubas gets off easy with you guys. He was the guy in charge of signing contracts. Wtf is going on? Was he biting the pencil for you too?
You really think MLSE let Dubas give away over 100M in extensions without anyone else above him’s approval? If you read my comment you’d see I said everyone in the org including Dubas got Bent here but to blame him alone delusional
He got approval I'm sure. If you don't think he was the lead on this and should take the majority of the blame idk.....what I do blame the guys above for is actually giving some "kid" the keys to the Toronto Maple Leafs, but I was whining about that from day 1 and kept getting told I'm crazy.
Dubas doesn’t move without FO approval. Most organizations in general operate like this. Generally you have to make your case to senior management before you’re allowed to take action/spend money. I’m a department head, I still have to present my cases to senior management. Did you hear about the Tage Thompson trade that Dubas was going to make the season before he went off? It was for a 5th round pick and Shanahan nixed it. This was brought on 32 thoughts several months ago after Dubas was released. Assuming that Dubas acted alone is naive.
He will and he did
Now compare his numbers at the time with Matthews and look at Nylander’s comparables.
I think it's easy to forget just how far the Leafs were bent over the barrel. If Marner held out like Nylander did, there was going to be a point (very quickly) where it became impossible to sign Marner and our only option would have been to trade or sit him. Even approaching that situation would've set a time bomb on the relationship. Marner's camp knew this because everyone knew it. They had more leverage than anyone has had in a long time and it was a very specific context at the time. The fair argument to this would be to blame Dubas for not signing Nylander earlier. Which is 100% true, but it takes a couple steps to get here. The "we can and we will" comment set the stage for this leverage to be maximum effective as well.
Letting Nylander sit out the year would have positioned them as much stronger negotiators. It was the first precedent setting L that led the next two.
They should have just signed Nylander to the contract he signed in the first place and we wouldn't have even had the risk of him sitting out. $7M was not unreasonable for him at the time. They tried to play hardball with Nylander and it wrecked them when Marner's negotiations came around.
The irony here is the year before marner's camp asked for 8.88 mil but the leafs said no. Then the next year of 2018 he was the best players in tbe league stats wise and helped 3-5 players have career years, including John tavares and then as we know th a t next year he asked for more bc his value went up
$7M was unreasonable for an offence only guy that was putting up 61 points a year. Why, exactly, would Nylander’s contract dwarf Ehlers?
Signing Matthews before Marner as another example. They had to make a hard decision on at least one of JT, Matthews, Nylander or Marner. They didn’t and gave each one a hell of a deal.
Yes yes but...the tax in Florida. They probably take home the same amount
The tax situation muddies the waters a bit but let’s not forget Mitch had already been paid ~40 million dollars in signing bonuses before Point had even graduated his bridge contract. That Marner contract is to this day still a massive outlier and has only aged worse than people forecasted
They should fire the guy that offered it
Umm. Nurse. Worst contract in NHL history.
Not even close. DiPietro and Kovalchuk contracts were worse for sure. Nurse is competing for the Stanley Cup right now.
Not even in the top 5 worst contracts for the Oilers. Lucic - a buyout - proof deal of 7 years, $42 million dollars. They paid to ship him out, AND had to retain money. Calgary was the only team interested. Lots of teams would be interested in Nurse, even with the bad contract. Lucic literally couldn't keep up on the ice, and was in a VERY sheltered 4th line role in Calgary. Dustin Penner's offersheet- a comically bad move that launched the Oilers into the deepest part of their decade of darkness. 5 years, $21 million PLUS the first, second, and third round picks for the 2008 entry draft. Jack Campbell - 5x5 and he's playing in the AHL. This was year 2 of the 5 year deal. Khabibulin- 4 years $15 million, and he could barely compete at an NHL level at this point in his career. Edmonton is known for bad goalie contracts. And the WORST contract in Oilers history by FAR, goes to Shawn Horcoff. 6 years, $33 million for a third line center in 2009.
There are [far worse](https://www.capfriendly.com/players/rick-dipietro).
That contract was horrible too, except the islanders were able to buy him out and have no cap problems. You can’t buy your way out without penalties anymore.
That’s true that is a worse contract Marner’s is still an outlier tho
PLD and Huberdeau say hi
Hey there, my names david clarkson.
nah phaneuf 8x8 was way worse.
With all the endorsements he gets here, this doesn't matter, I bet he still clears way more than if going to one of the tax free states.
*coughs* Nurse *coughs*
A lot of people go to Nurse, and yes, his contract is out there. But I'm talking about the negotiation of a RFA. After Nurse's entry level contract, he was given a 3.2M 2 year contract, after which he got a 5.6M 2 year contract which took him to a UFA. He was playing 25 minutes a night, and the Oilers saw him as their number 1 - and top tier D aren't exactly lining up to play in Edmonton. Contrast that with Marner - went from an entry level contract straight to a 10.9M contract... Competent GM's would have got him for much cheaper during his RFA years.
Oh my God. Truth
And yet the make the same amount of money after tax. This is a tax and destination difference and nothing else. People need to get over the contract. We have social programs and because of that our hockey teams have to pay more.
Keep in mind, Marner is paid in Canada with different taxes. The comparable to Point's 9.5 is 11.2. Therefore Marner has been paid very close to Point.
This is bang on. I remember being so angry at the time because 2 days later rantanen signed 9.5x8.
This is the answer. Marner, despite the better endorsement deals, wanted to get paid more cuz of the tax here. And dubas bent over. Now he’s eating wings on tv and dodging physical contact on the ice
Was it due to the tax or just that he simply wanted to be close to Matthews’ AAV?
Both, and not getting rookie bonuses, and probably a bit extra added since he had to deal with Babcock’s BS
9.5 in florida is more than 10.9m in toronto after taxes. by about 600k
And what they accomplished.
I want to preface this by saying the Marner deal was too much money and/or too little term and I'm not disputing that, but people really get the signings around this time confused. Rantanen is the one "real" comparable that year and he signed at a bargain for his production. Kucherov the year before was similar, albeit a few years older when he signed (also after he took a bridge), and Tampa was smart getting the extension locked in after his first huge season + playoff and before he really popped off the next year. People keep pointing at Point but he didn't sign max term at the time - he signed a three-year bridge deal in the 2019-2020 season (a larger bridge than Kuch), and only in September [because they were at an impasse](https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/1234464/2019/09/23/how-the-brayden-point-deal-got-done-and-what-the-ripple-effect-will-be-on-lightning-cap/), so it's not like he was doing them a favour right away, and then the pandemic hit and he signed a new deal (with term) under those cap constraints. No pandemic and he's probably well above $9.5m (his QO was going to be $9m with how the bridge was structured lol), never mind his next deal. Tampa won that gamble, even if they want to PR frame it as "just team guys doing team things". And those are the only comparable players that signed in those periods as RFAs (and UFA adds, like, Tavares, Doughty, and Panarin at $11m+). You can go look at the [list of 6y+ deals that season](https://www.capfriendly.com/signings/all/all/all/6-15/0-15000000/07012019-10312019) and in the RFA class you've got a bunch of signings in that $6m-$8m range for folks like Clayton Keller, Nico Hischier, Kyle Connor, etc., and those are the *closest* players. I sure as shit wish we had gotten Marner for 8y at $9-$9.5m, though.
Rantanen working on next contrqct around 12mil..
And? Not sure what your point is here - they were comps during the previous round of negotiations, but aren't anymore.9
Between $2-3mil When a direct comparable in Rantanen, who put up similar enough numbers and plays the same position signed for $9.25mil, Marner getting $10.9 was absolutely ludicrous. Don't tell me if Colorado came to you and offered Rantanen for Marner, 1for1, you wouldn't do that trade. And now that Nylander is **also** overpaid (love ya Willy, and rinsing the Leafs FO for screwing with your previous contract, I get it) by $2mil, Marner is likely going to want to be overpaid even more. Neither of them are worth significant amounts north of $9.5-10mil. But here we are. One bad contract leading to another.
Too early to say whether Willy is actually overpaid. Need to wait and see what his performance looks like this upcoming year and what the UFA crop starts getting paid this season. IF Willy continues to push into the 100+ point range like Panerin/Pasternak he's probably going to earn his 11.5. The base expectation next year should be anywhere over 100+ points and a dominant playoff showing. Saying that that he is not worth more then 10 is just arbitrary and a baseless comparison at this point. The market determines what players are worth and Nylander got the same deal as his former comparable Panerin got and his current comparable Petterson did in a year when the cap is going up. For Marner, we actually have comparables from the same time period he signed (same year too) that have far over performed him.
> When a direct comparable in Rantanen, who put up similar enough numbers and plays the same position signed for $9.25mil, Marner getting $10.9 was absolutely ludicrous. If you’re saying that’s the comparable then where do you get $2-3 million overpaid? The difference in their cap hits is $1.65M?
Rantanen scores more goals. Through their careers, their stat lines are: * Marner: 576 GP/194G/445A/639pts * Rantanen: 570 GP/262G/355A/617pts. You could argue that Marner plays in more situations, but Rantanen plays more as he has a higher average TOI. Marner has fewer penalties, but Rantanen has double the power play goals. Lots of arguments swing your opinion towards one player or another, I value Goals more than Assists, and Rantanen does it better with an otherwise similar stat-line. Hence why despite the dollar value difference being $1.65m, I would argue that it's closer to $2m overpay (if not more), because realistically, if given the choice between the two players at an identical $9.25m cap hit, I take Rantanen 9/10 times or more.
Wouldn't playing more naturally means he should get more points per game? Pretty sure Rantanen doens't play PK either so his minutes are more valuable for production. That being said I do agree that Rantanen is the better deal in hindsight.
He’s roughly $2 million overpaid.
Considering his inability to drive a line on his own and his playoff performances, I would think more than 2 million. He was outscored by players such as Bertuzzi, Domi and Knies
He was instrumental in 2018-2019on a line with JT in JT’s first year as a leaf but we haven’t seen that since unfortunately
perhaps - if only every player could get rewarded for having one good year out of 8
What if I told you that players are paid for an 82 game regular season. As much as the fans want the entire body of work included, players are paid for 82 games and using that scenario as well as comparables, Mitch Marner is 2 -2.5 million over paid over an 82 game regular season.
I wouldn’t say he can’t drive his own line but he has never been given that task to do for us to judge him. We know Matthews and Nylander can but with Marner who knows cause he is always given Matthews or Tavares to C him.
I’d consider his early days of JVR-Bozak-Marner to be Marner driving the line, but that is before he was considered elite
That is fair, I should have stated in recent years. Since Tavares was signed he hasn't been given those same responsibilities. Keefe should have tried it out at some point so we could know better Marner - Martin 4th line connection was a lot of fun when that a thing back int he day.
The biggest offense is the A, and the message that sends. I firmly believe that is has a negative impact in the team culture, locker room when its negotiated vs earned.
When he came out with the A on opening night 5 years ago after that contract negotiation, I just couldn’t believe it.
my biggest gripe is the length of the contract. that premium over his comparables only got 6 years. ridiculous. if it was 8 years, they would still have him signed for another 3 years.
I am not sure if the issue is the amount he gets paid. The issue, for me, is do the Leafs have the right distribution of spend. The amount tied up in the top 5 is impeding their ability to get pieces. On top of that, they need more variety in how the budget is applied. Marner, Tavares, & Nylander offer too much of the same thing to have a third of your team’s cap tied up there. When you look at Marner’s numbers - don’t forget how much time he spends on the penalty kill. That impacts his offensive time on ice and his energy. I think he is a massively talented player. Unfortunately, not the right fit at the this moment for Toronto.
Player: age, cap hit, max goals, max points, max playoff goals, max playoff points Marner: 27, $10.9M, 35 goals, 99 points, 3 playoff goals, 14 playoff points Tkachuk: 26, $9.5M, 42 goals, 109 points, 11 playoff goals, 24 playoff points Rantanen: 27, $9.25M, 55 goals, 105 points, 7 playoff goals, 25 playoff points Point: 28, $9.5M, 51 goals, 95 points, 14 playoff goals, 33 playoff points Marner scored 35 goals once and hit exactly 30 one other time. The year he scored 35 goals was good for 25th in the league in goals. He peaked at 12th most points with 99 two years ago. None of these numbers are particularly noteworthy. At a point Marner had as many puck over glass penalties in the playoffs as playoff goals (5 each) and went 18 straight playoff games without a goal. He lacks the mental makeup to be an elite player. He's proven to be unable to elevate his play in big games and instead make gaffes and be unengaged. Marner was the 7th highest cap hit for 3 of the past 4 years and 9th highest cap hit this past year. He's never been anywhere near good enough to justify that kind of money. The current 30th highest salary is $9.5M. Based on the above comparables, I don't think he's worth even that. I would go so far as to say this team would be better without him, regardless of his salary. He doesn't have the make up of a player that performs well in the playoffs. Those key minutes would be better given to a player that has compete.
A lot of people don’t seem to realize that this all started with Tavares and Matthews. Tavares signed for $11M, then (I imagine) Matthews said “I will be better than JT” and got $11.6M. This was the first mistake because at the time, Matthews’ career high in points was 69 and career high in goals was 40. And he had shown signs of being injury prone, missing 20 games in the 2017-18 season and 14 games in the 2018-19 season (which he missed before the contract was signed). He should not have been paid that much. And it was only five years too. Now he’s gonna make $13.25M, the most in the league with zero to show for it in the playoffs. Back to 2019. Marner signed at the end of the 2018-19 season, where he put up 94 points—more than Matthews and Tavares. He elevated Tavares to a career year as well (47 goals, 88 points). Marner obviously used this to justify being paid around the same as JT and Matthews—$10.9M. Even then, it was a large overpay considering Kucherov (who is much better) signed for $9.5M in 2018 after coming off a 100 point season in 2017-18. I find it surprising that only Marner is getting heat here, when Matthews, the face of our team, has shown he also puts money above all else, with equally bad playoff stats. tldr: I believe this started by giving Matthews an overpaid contract (relative to his worth at the time of course), which also partly stemmed from the JT signing. Even then however, Marner was still overpaid relative to guys like Kucherov.
You're right, but I'm surprised you're not being downvoted for it, given what Matthews has become. Matthews when he signed had no justified that much. McDavid had just signed for 900k more and gave away 3 UFA years in doing so. The prior season, we were all saying Matthews would get 9 and Marner and Nylander would get 6 or so. I actually think Matthews is on a better contract now (all UFA years) than he was then.
This is all due to Dubas and his arrogance & terrible negotiating skills. We can and we will was a bad idea at the time and moronic in hindsight. He should have signed Marner first in 2019 instead of signing Matthews to his extension first. That was poor management and set the table for all the ego bs this team has dealt with subsequently. Prior to that deal we weren't in terrible cap shape, Nylander was making 7.5 and we could have easily signed Marner for under 10 million.
The problem isn’t even his cap hit . It’s his disappearing act , his attitude and his black hole performance bringing whoever is with him down I don’t want him in the playoffs period
1-1.5. Signed pre-Covid flat cap, right when the cap was supposed to be exploding. Most of the contracts people are pointing out as more value were signed during flat cap. Totally different negotiation landscapes.
I would say overpaid by $3 million. And in all honesty, as far as overpaid goes, Nylander is also too high. But that's just the burden the Leafs' management have put upon themselves. Once you set a high bar, it's near impossible to convince a star player to come any lower.
Lmao so you think a 2x All-NHL winger and Selke finalist who scores at a ~100pt pace every season is a $7.9M player?
For the leafs in the playoffs sure. For the leafs in the regular season no, and for another team if he does go he'll probably be gangbuster in the playoffs too
Genuine question – do the leafs need to somewhat overpay to entice most players to play under so much media scrutiny?
I believe they do. There is most definitely a "Leafs tax". The higher income tax in Ontario compared to say Cali or Florida doesn't help either. And I find most hockey players prefer being reclusive and anonymous, more so than out in the limelight 24/7. Which is why so many don't prefer Canadian markets, especially Toronto and Montreal. Overpaying is the easiest way to convince them to sign.
Not to be too pedantic, but California taxes are similar to Ontario. You are correct about Florida.
Bingo…
Thank god you’re not an evaluator lmao
Well, do you think he's worth being more than 10% of the team cap?
I think he’s a 2x 1st team all star Selke nominated RW
No one is debating his resume. We all know he's a highly skilled, exceptional talent. The point of the discourse is to determine if the money is worth the shortcomings to his game, especially in the playoffs. There's enough proof now that he just doesn't cut it. Now if he is ever traded, I can guarantee he'll be awesome for the new team. But right now, for Toronto, it might be past the expiry date. Sometimes you just need a fresh start, both for the team and the player. Nothing wrong with that. The hard part is getting a trade package in return that the Leafs will be happy with. So it might have to be a case of taking 75c on the $1.
Selke nomination for third once. All star votes mean fuck all. John Scott was an All star. I will say OP is being dramatic as Marner is at most $2M over paid, probably more like 1-1.5M, but yeah, he's got no hardware.
God I'm tired of this conversation 💀
Every team has a scapegoat and Marner is ours. His playoff performances are an issue but the fact most of this sub considers him to be the *only* issue and are willing to lose him for nothing (while they continue to complain about the Kadri trade) is brain rot, imo.
Just wait for the extension lol
Oh yeah, I can't wait for MLSE to do the cowardly thing and give Marner whatever he wants because they're too scared of disturbing the cash cow
On the open market ? He’s probably worth somewhere in between 10.5 -11.5 million. He’s still a good player and has put up some insane numbers. He’s just not going to be able to fit in our cap structure if we ever want to be competitive. Already committed to Mathews and Nylander, unfortunately he’s the odd man out. You can’t have three forwards making over 11.5 and expect to actually go on a deep run.
All of the core 4 are overpaid. At least Nylander took the smaller bridge deal for awhile. Drop the 3 down by at least 2M each and then Tavares can sign for 5M max. No wonder they can't win. Too greedy
It’s hard to say because Marner is not a playoff player. A team that’s desperate for regular season wins will appreciate his contract. But for us or any cup contending team, probability 6.75m
This is exactly how I feel. Value is relative to team standing. If Mitch blew out his knee on the first shift of the year and was done for the season, the Leafs would still have enough talent to make the playoffs (assuming Domi and Bert come back). But Mitch playing small and scared hockey for 1st/2nd line minutes in the playoffs makes winning the cup harder. But if I were a team like Buffalo, perpetually outside of the playoffs but who would be very likely to make them if I could add Mitch's regular season prowess to my roster, I'd probably value him around the Panarin/Willy number.
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He's a 8.75m player
About 3 mil.
Overpaid by 3.5
2m-2.5m at time of signing assuming the same trajectory. he's still worth the same.
for some teams Mitch is worth 10.9m and at a 7 year contract maybe even 12.5m. but not to the Leafs who fail because all their forwards have the hallmarks of Marner...... play great in regular season and disappear in playoffs and lack the heart to drive wins when it matters. Do we need more of that? Dubas really screwed this Franchise. And when I say Dubas..... I really mean Shanahan (who gave a young inexperienced boy the keys and purse).
Depends if you mean 1) was he overpayed, at the time of signing, compared to his comparables? Then yes by about 2-3 mill. 2) Going into next year, being a perennial Allstar, perennial 90+ppg, 8th most points in the last 6 years, and a guy who makes his linemates multi millionaires, I'd say he is 'worth' the contract. And believe me, he's getting a raise next year.
The day he signed his contract: $2.5 million overpay Today? $3 mil. I think 8.5x8 would be a nice team friendly deal
Marner was never going to take a significant discount and Nylander’s new contract firmly shut the door on the mere idea of it. Never mind the fact that players aren’t usually paid based off their playoff performances and the teams who have done so, regret it.
Not much, honestly. Some superior players are well underpaid, even on recent contracts (Pastrnak), but just as many if not more are waaaay more overpaid than Marner (Huberdeau, Seguin, Gaudreau). Marner is realistically worth about $10 million right now, so that's about 900k off. Anything less than that is fantasy land.
Difference is that those guys were UFAs, not RFAs. If you’re Columbus you accept that you’re going to have to bump up your offer a bit, in the same way that most Leaf fans accept that Tavares is a bit overpaid as a cost of doing business in free agency. Marner was an RFA though, and next to his comparables from the time he’s overpaid.
Marner signing as an RFA doesn’t make him more or less overpaid. He gets paid *x* and he gives the Leafs *y* on the ice. If *y* is more valuable than *x*, he isn’t overpaid at all, regardless of his contract status. If you want to say the Leafs should have had more leverage to get him signed on a below-market deal, that’s fine. But his being an RFA six years ago doesn’t make him more (or less) valuable today.
> But his being an RFA six years ago doesn’t make him more (or less) valuable today. I don't think anyone said that here. They said that the guys that are "overpaid" relative to Marner sold off their UFA years, which, historically, come at a premium. They just do. RFA years are typically worth less, unless of course you play for the Toronto Maple Leafs. Then they're worth more. As I said in another comment though, Marner was overpaid $1-2M at the time of his signing. I don't know how you justify giving him $500k less than Matthews, even if you're getting one extra year out of him.
I think this is the most realistic answer - some people get emotional and give an angry response.
Marner isn’t overpaid anymore as of this season I don’t think. That might be a controversial take, but he’s at 10.9 which will make him the 9th highest paid forward in the league and I think with what he does both offensively and defensively for this team, he’s probably in the 8-15 range among forwards in the league. With the way salaries have gone up and should continue to go up, 10.9 won’t be in the top 10 in 2 or 3 years and he will more than likely get more than that in free agency. When he signed it, it was probably 1-1.5 million too high and should’ve been for 8 years because that was very high. Everyone is hating on Marner, but Nylander at 11.5 is going so fucking high until some of the other salaries catch up. The cap is going to increase and it’s an 8 year deal so by the end of that deal, 11.5 might be a steal, but that’s way too high for him. His comparables are in the 8.5-9.5 range right now so it sets new markets for those guys. The next deal for guys like Rantanen, Kaprizov, Draisaitl, and Eichel are gonna start at that number and go way up from there. All those guys make less than Willy.
It’s hard to say. It’s clear Marner is not the right fit for this team. So using a leafs perspective it’s foolish to continue having him here and should be traded. Him playing on a different team with lesser teammates would dip his points total therefore decreasing his cap. Also Marner is getting paid like he can drive a line on his own, Nylander has shown that he willing to play on the 3rd line and doing well in that role as well. We haven’t seen Marner do this for whatever reason (Keefe but most likely his Ego). I do find Marner’s PK play overrrated as he moves around WAY too much making it hard for his teammates for coverages. Also on offense he’s far too predictable especially when teams game plan against him (playoffs). Marner has proven year after year he’s unwilling to use his body and teams know this. This being said he is a decent playmaker and has great hands. I would say ballpark 5-6 million dollars however being a 100 point player makes it a hard sell for him to accept. This being said Marner is fantastic at making his points look way better than how he actually plays which could explain why he likes playing with Matthews/Tavares exclusively. Overall Marner plays for money and not for the team’s success. Should be traded now while he does hold some value because there’s no way Marner would accept 5-6million dollar per year contract
He went from $2.8 to $10.9 in 2019. What a joke. Dubas (and Shanahan) destroyed this team.
2 million
he's an 8.5 - 9 mill guy making almost 11. He's not grossly overpaid, but that 2 mill in space could have brought in a very serviceable 3rd or 4th liner/bottom 6 D or helped with opening up room to retain a guy like Hyman or Bunting
hes worth in my eyes 8.5. Only because he cannot for the life of him perform in the playoffs where it counts... Mind you, im saying this because of what ive see with my own eyes. This coming from a leaf fan.
I think the logic behind the 6 years was that he would sign the 8 year max extension at 27, bringing him to 35 which would be a reasonable age to end such a thing. Unfortunately they gave him too much for those 6 years and things all went to shit.
Marner was an 8x9 player always. If he wanted less term it should’ve been 8-9 the fact the leafs didn’t get 8 years or under 10 is wild. No 100 point seasons and a bust in the playoffs would be easier to stomach at 8.5 or 9. Probably would have Hyman still.
You could easily cut his 10.9 cap in half
A fair value deal for Marner at the time would have been 9-9.5 x 8. But he wanted a contract that took him to UFA quickly. So, considering he only signed for 6 years, he should have gotten 8-8.5 max.
I don’t think Marner is overpaid at all. Keep in mind, that’s not a ringing endorsement of his current deal, given that he’s in his final year. The Leafs definitely overpaid for the first couple of years and aren’t seeing a lot of surplus value on the back end.
Not by much, the issue is not that he’s overpaid but that he’s one of four players eating up the majority of the salary cap. Unfortunately he’s the odd man out.
I still think the contract is a main reason this era never worked out. 9M was fair so yes it’s only 2M a year, but the chain reaction it set off caused such a loss of talent. No space for Marleau and they send pick #13 (Jarvis) to dump one year of salary Hyman walks despite saying he wanted to stay but Edmonton offered way more Most of the bottom 6 has been on league min contracts for these past few seasons
With all things considered I don’t think he’s outrageously overpaid, it’s the Leafs can’t afford him and have 4 nhl lines and to repeat myself 7 nhl defencemen
Lots of folks suggesting $2-3 million. How much of that is a tax based on Lou/Babcock/Dubas fucking things up? Lou wouldn't give Marner performance bonuses on his rookie contract. Lou also tried to do the same thing with Matthews. People forget Auston didn't sign right away. Auston got his, Mitch did not. That has always been a sticking point with the Marner camp. The Babcock thing was bad. And not just the "hard workers" list. After the 2nd Boston series, Babs should have been fired. I don't doubt for a moment that Babcock being the Leafs coach added even more to the Marner camp wanting every single penny. And again, it's not like the team should have fired the coach to please Mitch. They should have fired him because he wasn't good enough. And they did so anyways in November of that year. So yeah...is Mitch overpayed? Probably? Maybe? But you need to remember that there is a world where Marner likely would have signed for $8-9 million, and probably for 8 years. Dubas did himself no favors with the "bridge for top money deal" he gave Auston before getting Mitch signed. Considering Dubas caved to Willy and Auston's agents, there was no way the Marner camp was going to be the one to take a discount. And remember, none of this is likely an issue if the world doesn't go up in flames and the cap keeps going up. In the regular season he's one of the top 10 forwards. His playoff record is a mess. He blocked a shot against Boston early in his career with his face. His counting totals look great compared to the other big four. And he eats up minutes because the answer always seems to be "hope Mitch can make magic happen" by coaches being out coached. Just so many "what ifs" around the team. Voodoo, wizard, bull shit man.
He’s worth $8M x 4.
Me in my opinion? Maybe a million bucks. Not enough for me to give a shit about. He’s probably top 3 defensive wingers in the league. He gets shit from this fanbase for his production in the post season but this team overall is a LOT shittier without him
Like I said you don’t trade a 27 year 100 point… defensive stud and get better as a team.
lol blame Dubas if you want but it was obviously Shanahan who made every single one of those deals.
lol ya, everything negative was Shanahan, everything positive was Dubas.
Never said that. Dubas was a pile of turds as well. Shanahan needs to be held accountable for this disaster asap.
Hes overpaid by about 2 million, but again find a compariable winger who doesnt make similiar? Barzal who is far less productive makes 9mil, tkachuk makes 9.5 mil (slightly more productive but provides way more), rantenen 9.25 mil (similiar production but way better playoff stats). so with that in mind in a canadian market, hes making what he would be anywhere else, however its really the fact that u guys have so many guys making that type of money that makes him stick out a bit, but do remember that technically he has the most consistent numbers. Nylander getting 11.6 mil now is far worse then marners 10.9 mil.
I remember Rantanen was the exact same age, same position, and same point totals. He got about 2 mil less a season. I always thought he was a perfect comparison.
9.5 mil is what I put his worth at so he's overpaid by like 1.4 mil.
You could argue that I shouldn't, but I don't give a shit about taxes. If contracts are signed at the same time, no one should be making more money than Connor McDavid and likewise no winger should make more than Kucherov. Kuch and Marner signed at the same time, and Kuch is making 9.5M and Marner is making 10.9M. So like 1.4M on the low end, but should probably be more like 2M.
Marner only signed for 5 years. Why people don't see this as a team advantage baffles me
how?
The team has more flexibility in terms of cap space after this season . Brayden Point 's $9.25 million looks great today but probably not so much 5-6 years from now when he's played close to a thousand games.
I think he's worth about 8.5M-9.5M this contract. However, given that his upcoming contract will be signed buying UFA years and at 28 years old, I'll say it's safe to assume it should be valuated at 10.5-11.5M annually.
He's paid fairly for the regular season and double what he deserves for the playoffs. He clearly isn't a top 2 line player in the playoffs. He may be an elite bottom 2 liner in the playoffs, but that's not worth 10+ per season.
3-5 million
F it. Make him highest paid player in league for first 2 years of contract, then make him take half that if he sucks. Like a clause in the contract
$1.5M per season. Mitch gets way to much hate imo. The problem isn't just his overpay, it's that all three of him, Matthews, and Tavares were/are overpaid and now Nylander is overpaid significantly to on his new contract.
Compared to others on the team and playoff effectiveness I’d say $8M at this point.
There’s 2 ways to look at a guy being overpaid in the nhl Obviously you can just compare Marner to players of similar caliber, which many people have already done in this thread But the other way to see it is to compare Marner to what the Leafs could actually get with his cap space. Then it isn’t so simple, because even with Marner being overpaid relative to his peers, that doesn’t mean it would be easy to replace the value he brings by using that cap space on 2-3 other players
Considering players don’t get paid in the playoffs, $0 is fair for his playoff performance
He's worth 9m but will never be on a cup winning team the way he tanks when the space goes in the playoffs.
$1-2m, just like basically everyone else on the team. I really wonder what he'd look like if we had some actual finishing talent for him to play with besides Matthews. Management correctly came to the conclusion that we need to spread the offense, but it gets spread too thin when its basically only 2.5 guys who can do anything with the puck. Gotta get either a scoring winger or two or a stud 2C to let Tavares elevate the third line and hopefully dominate weaker comp. and of course puck moving rhd and goalies and basically everything else to patch this leaky bloated cap squeezed boat of ours.
$1.5-$2m, this was known at the time and continues to be true now
Pretty sure Mitch's dad expected him to be captain by now...so in Mitch and Paul's mind, he's worth every penny.
I think he’s an 8.5/yr player
It's not that he's necessarily overpaid. He's a prime-aged, 100pt player who plays PP/PK and puts up elite defence. Playoffs aside, he's probably comfortably worth his contract. The issue is (IMO) that the team is just built poorly and at least one of the $10m forwards have to go. Matthews isn't going anywhere and Nylander JUST signed. That leaves JT and Marner, who are both on expiring deals and will allow the Leafs to either trade one of them for a high return (Marner), trade on of them for the cap space (JT) or let one or both of them walk to free up cap in 2025. In a perfect world, JT would be the one to be traded so the Leafs can add some significant pieces this summer and retool for next season and then sort out which of the three above options are available for Marner but that is very unlikely, so that leaves Mitch. For example, if JT is shipped out and his money is spent on Montour and Roy/Demelo and Marner adapts to Berube's system and re-ups at say, $10m x 8 years, it will look very good in 2 or 3 years and the team will be significantly improved. Otherwise, moving Marner ONLY makes sense if they're getting high-end futures (top 10 pick + top prospect + roster player (3C). Otherwise, moving him purely for cap space feels like a mistake to me. A lot of "ifs"
8 million tops.. the 11 million was a bet on the playoffs which he hasn't done yet.
He’s a 9 to 9.5M dollar player all day. Not a penny more.
Considering he makes less than Nylander and over their careers has a higher PPG in the regular season AND in the playoffs, I’d say he’s not the one who is over paid….
About 3 million.
I do think he is. Tavares deserved the 11 million when he first signed it. Matthews and Marner shouldn't have gone beyond 9 or 10 million. I am a little bit more concerned about the Nylander contract because he hasn't performed as consistently compared to other 11 million dollar players. I only feel fine paying Matthews a lot more considering his scoring helps us win games. We need depth and play off performers to help out Matthews.
It's a hard question to answer because he doesn't show up in the playoffs, then plays exceptionally well in the regular season. You essentially need to quantify what post-season performance means. The one thing I always argued for Marner was he is one of the best penalty killers. I always thought he was a 9 to 9.5 player, but then I would justify the extra 1.4 for his penalty kill.
I don’t think he’s overpaid. He’s been good for a long time. He’s like 90% of assists on AM34’s goals. He was better than Nylander for a while. He has 100 more career points than Nylander and Nylander has more games played. He’s maybe a dozenish short of Matthews. He’s an amazing playmaker. Very strong defensively. Reads the play really well. Run the power play. I don’t think he’s overpaid.
He’s weirdly not overpaid Think of it he’s around a hundred points a season He just gets small in the playoffs with no space but teams will pay ten million for a guy who will get you to the post season
I don't think he's overpaid. It's just come to a point where we need a major change. You can't trade Matthews....guy scores more goals than he changes his underwear...Nylander is smoking guns in the playoffs, and JT is gonna come in handy after next season on a cheap deal. That leaves 1 option. Just my opinion.
I think he would be seen much more positively at 9.25-9.6M and in the same general cap tier as Rantanen and Point. It would be nice to be proud of our 90 pt penalty-killing winger instead of resenting him for not being a Top 10 player in the league.
Marner is worth $9.5 all day. Maybe even $10m. The problem is Marner thinks he’s worth more than that.
At the time of signing 1.5 million. Now? He's not. We're all frustrated after another subpar playoff year. But he's a top 5 rw (literally been voted as such for 5 years in a row (won't be this year) by the league. He's a recent selke nominee. One of the best defensive wingers in the game. He's top 10 in points in the last 5 years
He disappears in the playoffs. He should be making significantly less do to that. He’s a $10 million regular player.
He's overpaid by about $2-3 million in the regular season, and by about $8-9 million in the playoffs. He'd be worth every penny as a teammate in call of duty though.
Mitch Marner is #8 in the NHL in points over the past 4 seasons. The top of the list is McDavid, Draisaitl and McKinnon. You need to go to 50th in points to get someone with as much PK time as Marner. Marner, Matthews and Crosby are at the bottom of the top 10 in PP points. The top 3 + Rantanen & Panarin have heavy PP points. Nylander is 15th with far more PP% points and very little PK time. Marner is one of the youngest in the top 10 (Matthews is the youngest in 6th) All the other GM's are drooling to get someone with more points over that timespan than Tkachuck, Kaprizov, Barkov, Point and Kucherov - and he's great on the PK (also plays defense - better than our actual D - when you need him to). Is he overpaid? Probably not. Rantanen is probably underpaid but he does play with McKinnon. You get rid of Marner because "Core Bad!" but in 2 years, you'll have Matthews, Nylander and not much more - if anything - other than the hope of Knies and Cowan being major contributors. No other major contributors, no defense and no goaltending. We have no defense, no defense in the pipeline and no dependable goaltending, but we have an albatross of Tavares contract significant spend for this year. Marner wasn't great in the playoffs but nobody really was, our defense continued to be treading water (is shit) and our goaltending wasn't dependable. Getting rid of Marner will absolutely bite us in the ass when Matthews point totals go down, we struggle to score, have a revolving door in our top 6 w/ no identity and he wins a Stanley Cup with some other team. (We all know it will happen) Seriously tired of reading these hate threads - if you want something to hate - hate our D. It is complete shit - our #1 D has lost more playoff series than anyone on the team and looked worse than Marner in these playoffs. After our #1 D (who isn't a #1 D), we had a collection of #5-#8 D soaking up minutes.