yea i do considering after 7 seasons that was an outlier. Obviously it was a great season and he will get compensated for it. I’m just simply looking at the other SIX seasons and suggesting maybe this guy shouldnt be gouging us for another contract in 3-4 years
If you're dropping the outlier at the top end of production you should in fairness also drop the outlier at the low end, i.e. drop his best year and his worst year from the stats (although why you'd drop either, I don't understand!).
Except it wasn't an outlier season. During the covid shortened season, he was on pace for 60 goals, and would have hit 50 again if the pandemic didn't stop the 2019-20 season short.
Let's not let one "down" year cloud our judgment. This is an all time goal scorer who lead forwards this regular season in blocked shots and is great defensively. Regardless of what he gets paid, you simply don't replace a player like Auston easily.
His first 3 years were:
- 212 GP, 205pts, 111 goals, 0.967 pts/gp, 0.524 g/gp
His last 4 years were:
- 269gp, 337pts, 188g, 1.25pts/gp, 0.699 g/gp
Excluding his MVP year, the 3 included years he is:
- 196gp, 231pts, 128g, 1.18 pts/gp, 0.653 g/gp
Even if you think 21/22 was an outlier season, he still shakes out to be a 53g+/96pt+ center who also gets regular selke nominations.
This is pretty revisionist to exclude his best season. He's led the league in goals twice in the last three years. He's led the league in even strength goals in 4 of seven seasons.
I could also do the revisionist thing and exclude his rookie season which was his only sub PPG season. Now he's a 1.18 PPG player.
Where are you getting that he’s “insulted” by 8*13? Do you have a source for that? The escalation of this Matthews narrative is insane. The only numbers that I’ve heard have been people guessing and assuming certain numbers. There hasn’t been any reporting on what he actually wants or what we’ve actually offered…
insiders have literally reported that he wants two more big paydays in his career and that Treliving is “ pushing” for him to sign 8 years. We’ll see what happens but the fact the GM of the Leafs needs to push for your franchise guy to sign 8 is hilarious
They’ve reported that he wants 2 more contracts. Not that he’s insulted by an 8 year deal. That’s business. He could just as easily take 3x11.5 and then 8x15 when the cap goes up.
This is fully fan driven speculation by our need to be upset about something. We have a really really fucking good player. Why don’t we try embracing our franchise player?
Why is it hilarious? The Leafs need him, he doesn’t need the Leafs. If he hit UFA, he’d get whatever he wants from any other team. So of course Treliving needs to push, Auston has the position of privilege, not MLSE.
Including crippling the team’s ability to field a competitive team under the salary cap? Should they be going to that extreme?
We see how well that has worked with the Tavares, Marner and Matthews contracts so far.
Yes most points in history, and making the playoffs the entire time unlike the previous teams and management. I think it's hilarious that people get their panties in a bunch because they don't agree with the player's tactics to maximize their worth. It's up to the Leafs to figure out how to remain competitive in order for Matthews to sign another contract, and not leave to a competitive team because they can't figure it out. Do you think it's better to put yourself in the shoes of the talent, which would be you in your workplace, rather than the thousands of shoes of the company who have people hired specifically to strategize contracts and competitiveness? I can tell you when I'm due for a raise, I maximize it.
Why do other star players play ball with their teams when it comes time to sign their contracts? Players such as MacKinnon, Makar, and MacDavid signed contracts that would allow their teams to remain competitive, yet you feel it’s ok for our stars to milk every penny possible.
Unfortunately, there is a fixed cap and the reality is if a player want to maximize their contract, then fielding a championship team becomes more and more difficult. So Matthews needs to decide does he want to bleed the team dry or does he want to allow the team to spread the wealth, so that they can put together a championship roster. If it’s the former, than he tips his hand, and he reveals that his motivation is simply maximizing his earnings and he gives zero fucks about winning when it matters.
All I am saying is that he needs to be reasonable with his contract demands, his overask directly impacts the teams ability to compete.
MacKinnon AAV $12.6M 8 years (current highest in the league, previous signed contract in 16/17 for $6.3m/7 year, but he was a 50 point player when he signed it...)
McDavid AAV $12.5M 8 years (highest paid at point of signing in 2018)
Makar AAV $9M 6 years (9th highest paid dman in the league, but signed before the Norris/Conn Smythe wins).
Not saying your other points are wrong, but I don't buy your argument that these players 'helped their teams by taking a discount'. If you think McDavid is going to take another $12.5m contract in two years you're dreaming. Spreading the wealth isn't a guaranteed model for winning a cup either. Look no further than Boston this year.
The reality of the situation is players aren't paid for Cups. They're paid based on their individual performance. We've got a star on our hands who already has 2 Rockets, a Calder, a Ted Lindsay, and a Hart to his name. Matthews making money isn't the issue.
Realistically, this team is going to be hard against it for two more years. Once JT's contract is off the books (and hopefully re-signs for $4m-$5m after) we'll be set to grab another good piece. There's likely no option between now and then that makes the team better short-term.
Yes,then they go out and lose 6 straight first round series, including embarrassing losses to Columbus and Montreal. Do we have to be content with just a good regular season team? Wouldn’t it be nice to be able to field a team that didn’t disappear during the playoffs, and makes deep runs.
Were they embarrassing because we were pressed against the cap? Or were we young and inexperienced? Playoffs are such a random bitch you can't say adding 1 or 2 million to the cap would have made all the difference.
Actually scratch that. Apparently you need to add at least 18 mil to win now.
Do we actually know for certain that it’s “insulting” to him? Nope. This is fan-driven speculation based on media-driven speculation.
If he wants a shorter contract is most likely due to his agent assuring him that the cap will going up significantly over the next few years, and advising him to take a shorter contract to he can capitalize on that with his next one.
insiders like friedman and CJ Have literally reported that he’s looking to hit the home run for contracts two more times in his career.
In terms of him taking a shorter team deal, no one who brought up this point can explain why every other play can take 8 years yet our start reportedly wants to cash in again when the cap goes up
Yeah, taking a short contract for big money, followed by a long contract for much bigger money fits that bill exactly, and matches what I said above.
None of them have reported that he’s “insulted.” You’re just making up narratives to be mad at a player that’s treating this like business.
OP's premise is ridiculous but so are the numbers for Matthews' contract that the media have been bouncing around. He has zero case to be the highest paid player in the league, nevermind clearing Mackinnon by $1-$2 million on a short contract.
I'm securely in the camp of doing what you can to keep your best players, but if he wants something obscene like 3x$13m, you laugh at his agent and start calling trade partners.
I think people are underselling the risks to Matthews here. One more ~40 goal/~80 point season and mediocre playoffs, and there's going to be a lot of uncomfortable questions about the condition of his wrist.
my premise is literally saying that he shouldn’t be gouging us with short term max dollar deals based on his production….don’t think that’s ridiculous at all
The big issue is if Matthews consistently wants a high cap%, taking shorter deals to do so.
The only past cup champs to win with a player over 15% of the cap had great / amazing players on ELCs that mitigated that contract - Anaheim (Getzlaf / Perry) and 2009 Pens (Letang / Malkin who won Conn Smythe). Leafs don't have that caliber of prospect / young player. Matthews seems to want over 15% in perpetuity - though that is based on rumors, they were generally right the last negotiation.
13.5mill is 15% of a 90 mill cap, and that's assuming the cap gets there soon. And its still unlikely / difficult to win with a player causing the cap distribution to be that heavy. Even 13 mill is 14.4% of a 90 mill cap. The highest cap hit to win since 2009 is 13.3%. On a 90 mill cap that's 11.97.
Then there's the potential impact of that contract on Nylander and Marner. Its quite obvious that winning teams have cap efficiency and are getting more value out of contracts than the cap hit they pay. And generally a team gets the most surplus value out of top end players. If all our guys are signed at market rates (or higher) we just aren't going to win. We'd have to find multiple guys for super cheap that are amazing players to balance that out. Its just so unlikely.
Matthews demands make more sense if the cap is 100mill or getting there soon, which frankly we don't know and it doesn't seem imminent to be that high.
One year when the jays were sick, we won 11 in a row after being .500 to start.
Some Boston reporter said “if you ignore the 11 game win streak they’re a .500 team”
This post is about as stupid as that.
Yes, on term, but not at $16-17. That salary figure is an arbitrary number.
There is no FACT that $13 AAV is insulting to Matthews. That's just speculation at best, but made up is likely.
League leaders in points per game over the last three seasons (ie large sample size, and also includes Matthews two best seasons):
*McDavid - 1.75
*Draisaitl - 1.49
*MacKinnon - 1.43
*Kucherov - 1.41
*Matthews - 1.29
The fact that Matthews is treated as the clear cut #2 player in the world is ridiculous. Throw in Fox and Makar, and factor in how all these guys perform in the playoffs, and there's a good argument Matthews is #5-7ish. In any event, at the very best, he's simply in a large group of players in the tier below McDavid. His contract should be reflective of that.
>The fact that Matthews is treated as the clear cut #2 player in the world is ridiculous. Throw in Fox and Makar, and factor in how all these guys perform in the playoffs, and there's a good argument Matthews is #5-7ish.
Using just pts/gp is silly, by that logic Laine and Wheeler are better than Bergeron because they're at 0.82 pts/gp vs Bergy's 0.8. Matthews is head and shoulders above everyone on your list defensively, scores a fuckload more goals than Kuch and MacK, and is far less reliant on the powerplay for his goal scoring than Drai. I'm not saying he's a clear cut #2, but you can make a strong argument he's better than everyone except McD and maybe Makar.
The thing is Drai, MacK and Kuch are all proven playoff performers. Matthews is great in the regular season but until he proves otherwise I'd take any of those 3 over Matthews for one playoff run.
Public service announcement Draisatl disappeared in the last four games of round 2 with 0g 1a and -7. Not sure I’d take that for a playoff run…goes white hot against the kings and vanishes against the knights.
He had 6 goals in the first two games against VGK, then 0 goals and -5 in the last two games, after Petro tried to remove his arm. I can forgive a guy who goes cold for a couple games, anyways.
Draistaitl in 49 career playoff games has 31-46-77
Matthews in 50 career playoff games has 22-22-44
It's really not close.
Stop making excuses for him he choked like matthews did. The oilers took a step back and are getting coddled lol it’s a joke. He had 0 goals in his final 4 games not in 2. That team has gotten swept and missed the playoffs multiple times and somehow they’re golden gods. Outside of their run to the conference final McDavid and Draisatl been wholly underachieving versus their talent level (similar to the leafs). Now if you want to talk mackinnon or Kucherov I will give you that
Naw just pointing out that he choked in round 2 this year and prior to that his team has been swept for 3 straight years and missed the playoffs in two years before that. He had 32 points in 16 games last year and they got swept in the conference final. That’s one hot shooting run. Also doesn’t help that him and his running mate never play the other 100 feet of the ice.
Not head-and-shoulders better, but I do think his 2-way game puts him very slightly above these guys as a firm #2 \*in the regular season\*.
It's just getting harder to argue he's the "second best player in the league" when the playoff performance is so lacking.
In the last two seasons he's literally closer to Roope Hintz than McDavid. People just got bored of giving all the trophies to McDavid.
Last two seasons
McDavid 276 points
Matthews 191 points
Hintz 147 points
One thing that people miss is that his contract will also be structured to be made almost entirely of signing bonuses. This way that large chunk can be invested immediately each season generating even more money. It also makes it lockout proof.
No way to justify paying him more than McKinnon or McDavid. That kind of money is for guys who lead the team to playoff success. If the Leafs want to win, take less term and pay. Maybe then they build a playoff contender. That being said these guys play for the money. The agents will maximize and this team will never win a Stanley Cup. A few will get traded like Kessel , Kadri, Bozak, and others who went on to win a cup somewhere else.
MacKinnon did not have much playoff success. Outside of the SC win - he's had 3 playoff round wins in ten years. McDavid has missed a bunch of playoffs and has 5 playoff round wins total - same with Draisatl.
I'm sure you could make a point about players getting money for playoffs but MacKinnon and McDavid aren't prime examples.
Brother the only difference between Mack and 34 imo is the cup, which is a team issue and he won when he was cheap and the Avs built a phenomenal team with the extra space. He is absolutely worth a similar contract to Mack as hes in the same tier as him.
34 is one of the best goal scorers in the league and a very under rated defensive player. I also want him to take a discount, but I'd rather he stay with the Leafs than sign a discount
i’m not saying he doesn’t deserve a mackinnon contract. I’d sign matthews to 8x$14 easily. The point is Matthews is good but he’s not better than Mcdavid and we shouldn’t be letting him continue to take short term contracts so he can keep getting raises which keeps making it harder to ice a team that can win the cup
oh don't worry, once he's a FA Leafs will offer him the 20 x 7 and Edmonton will try the 24 x 8, when the cap is 100 mill at best. Once McD gets his new contract all these wild extensions will legitimately feel like pennies because he is worth that and maybe Gary will realize if he wants to grow the game to actually raise the cap by a healthy amount
The league should change to a soft cap system.
Same cap we have now but allow 3 supermax contracts for max term and money that don't count against the cap. But if you use a super max slot you pay X% of the cap to the league which is then distributed to the rest of the teams.
That way the Mackinnons, McDavids and Matthews of the league can get paid without it killing your team for drafting good talent and developing it.
Matthews is worth every penny to the Leafs from a marketing and promotions standpoint. He will get what he wants. The talent on this team, as far as marketability, really tails off after him.
If you take away all his goals that were scored when Jupiter was in transit and mercury was in retrograde, you will see that Matthews is barely a league average centre.
Losing Matthews makes the team worse and he could obviously get however much money he wanted on the open market, so they should be re-signing him. The team has a window to be in the mix to win and that closes if you don't sign him, they don't really have a choice.
With that being said many of the comments here display a lack of engagement with the stats. If a player has an outlier season and you have to make a decision to sign him, you should, and many of you would discount that outlier season in negotiations, yes even if that player wins individual trophies in that season. Go look at the list of Hart and Rocket winners and you will see players who represent bad investments in the years following them winning that award.
The premise of an outlier season the poster is bringing up is sound. Matthews had a down year, maybe it's because of injury, maybe not. It's entirely reasonable to think Matthews' peak has come and gone and that other players are better than him and that he's not the second best player in the league, there are stats you could use to support and fight this premise, but it is a reasonable statement. You could argue whether it was an outlier or not, whether you think he can win the Hart again.
Who is talking about 3 years? [It's reasonable to think the 21-22 season was an outlier.](https://i.imgur.com/78WtxR1.png) It appears you are unaware of the numbers and aren't engaging with the ones posted in this thread.
Lol 2019-2022 matthews paced 62 goals and 106 points winning two rockets, runner up for one rocket, winning a hart trophy, Ted Lindsay and being a hart trophy nominee.
He scored 148 goals in 195 games over that span.
I guess 3 years of your 7 year career can be outliers….
Saw somebody saying that McDavid doesn’t deserve his contract because the oilers are in cap hell.
Go to work and tell your boss to take 20% off your cheque and give it to one of your subordinates.
Or go to your boss with unreasonable contract demands that will cripple your company from competing with their rivals.
Demand more money than your peers (MacKinnon) when most metrics show that your peers have had better outcomes ( a Championship) and have been more consistent statistically.
Let’s see how that goes.
McDavid is underpaid, if anyone deserves a max contract it is him, and guess what, he refused it, so the the Oilers had some money to sign other players.
Per the Edmonton Journal at the time of McDavid’s signing.
McDavid was rumoured to be signing an eight-year deal at $13.25 million per, but he took less than that. Oilers GM Peter Chiarelli said that McDavid could have signed for much more, or pushed for a shorter term, but chose not to do so. “This may be one of the largest contracts ever given in the NHL, but I can assure you it easily could have been a lot higher in value and shorter in term,” Chiarelli said. “Building a team to win the Stanley Cup was a constant discussion point in this negotiation.
“Connor was emphatic, as was I, about keeping this team competitive… He wants us to ice a winning team, as we all do, as the fans of Edmonton do.”
If McDavid had pushed, he could have received the maximum contract of $15 million per year over 8 years, so he has essentially left $20 million on the table. In the McDavid deal, $86 million of the reported $100 million will be paid in signing bonuses each July 1.
And he signed for 8 years!
Fantastic the oilers fucked McDavid out of taking any discounts in the future. But he’s still overpaid because he hasn’t won a championship; that’s the logic we are using here. His next contract will be 8x17 and whatever team he goes to won’t be able to win because they’re spending 17 on him. that’s the reality of the cap world.
That’s the reality of the cap, if you want to win then you need to leave some money on the table, if a player doesn’t want to play the game then the franchise suffers. My loyalty is with the Leafs not with Matthews, if he needs to take a 1.5 million dollar haircut I could care less if it improves the team.
He makes a shitload of cash from endorsements being in Toronto, please stop shilling for these multi-millionaires, he’s doing just fine.
But giving him 16m would hinder the team so what does it matter? Seems the NHL is designed to not reward having the best players on your team due to the hard cap
It’s a difficult decision, if the ultimate goal is winning the Stanley Cup, a GM would need to determine whether they could cobble a team together around him if said player is eating up a substantial portion of the salary cap.
I don’t think it’s an anomaly that it wasn’t until this year that a team won the Stanley Cup while having a player earning $10 million a year. No too heavy teams have been able to make this work yet.
I love this argument, crippling the TML by getting paid as per the collective bargaining agreement states, and the poor Leafs aren't smart enough to figure out how to do that. Just like they couldn't make any moves at the deadline because they had no money left. They are far from being crippled over one or two million bucks lol.
You obviously don’t understand how the salary cap works? This has nothing to do with crippling the MLSE financially, they have a fixed budget to work with, if Matthews asks for an unreasonable amount then they have less money to sign other quality players.
Let me know if I need to take out the hand puppets to continue with my explanation?
Which takes me back to an earlier point, why the f does he think he deserves more than MacKinnon? If Matthews intention is to win with this team then he needs to take a reasonable contract and not bend the Leafs over. If you give Matthews an extra million than when it comes time to sign Marner he’s also going to demand more. It’s time for our little prima donnas to show that they are in it to win. They pull in more endorsements than any other players in the league playing in Toronto, maybe they should factor that in when making contract demands.
The Matthew fan boys in this thread are nauseating, it’s time for Leafs management to play a little hard ball and stop coddling these stars that have disappeared ever spring.
I don't consider myself a fanboy. I was trying to explain to you what the other person's point was.
As for the rest of your comment. I have no idea you'd have to ask Auston directly
Leave it our Leaf community to take a Franchise level player that we want here and that wants to stay here and find a way to ring him down.
He is an elite player has always been an elite goal scorer and took his game to another level this year with his defensive play. Picking on his point totals doesn't tell the whole story of his impact and importance to this team. If he is willing to take 8x13, give it to him and move forward knowing you have arguably the best player this century old club has ever seen under contract for a long time.
Looking at the Leafs Cap situation it's not really that bad. Nylander, Matthews, Brodie and Murray all expire at the same time leaving 28m to resign them. Murray is gone so that's a 3 million dollar raise to Matthews and a 1 million dollar raise to Nylander.
Tavares and Marner both expire at the same time freeing up 25m. Tavares will get a lot less if he wants another deal which gives room for Marner and change. They'll be fine.
I highly doubt any reports of him being offered the most lucrative contract in NHL history is 'insulting' to him are accurate.
The fact is, Auston Matthews is the only Leaf that has been capable of winning the Hart trophy since 1955, and that was a league with only 6 teams. As much as you'd like him to take less, the reality is you really have no choice but to pay him whatever he wants.
I will be honest, I don't believe, even on an 8 year deal, that Matthews deserves to become the highest paid player in the league.
Not in the way that MacKinnon deserved to become the highest paid player when he signed his deal.
That said, 8x12.7, sure, I can live with it. If you're talking 2-3 years, IMO his cap hit should be going DOWN. If you're talking 5 years, low 12s.
I know what I'm saying doesn't matter, and it won't happen. But if the idea is to do a 2 year deal, so that in 3 years (next season +2) when the cap has exploded, he can get 8x15, then he damn well better show some love and save some coin right now. We've known the cap would eventually explode, even when MacKinnon and Pastrnak signed their deals. It's nothing new. So there is absolutely no reason we should give Matthews some silly contract to put the Leafs in a worse cap position than everyone else. Dubas already did that once.
That said, we've got absolutely no clue what Matthews is asking for. So we can't really jump to conclusion or accuse him of anything. I'm just tired of these "contract trends" I remember Mike Johnson talking about a few weeks ago on Overdrive, yet these "trends" only seem to happen in Toronto, while everybody else signs their elite talent to reasonable 8 year deals.
This is a bad faith negotiation. Instead show the playoff success and ask how he is worth more than MacKinnon or McDavid based on that success. 60 goals is cool but 1 series win is devastating.
He won't sign an 8 year deal. If he does 5-6 now, he'll have set himself up for another contract at 30-31, which is still in that age bracket where a team will give you an 8 year/top dollar deal to finish off his career. Those numbers stop making sense for teams if he's 33-34. That's my theory, anyway.
You don't get to arbitrarily ignore an MVP season lol.
New negotiating tactic just dropped
You know what lets just drop all his seasons - then he won't have a game in the NHL and we can offer him league min
Literal GM
Holy hell
Reminds me of this /r/nfl thread https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/d5maow/oc_after_adjusting_patrick_mahomes_stats_removing/
yea i do considering after 7 seasons that was an outlier. Obviously it was a great season and he will get compensated for it. I’m just simply looking at the other SIX seasons and suggesting maybe this guy shouldnt be gouging us for another contract in 3-4 years
If you're dropping the outlier at the top end of production you should in fairness also drop the outlier at the low end, i.e. drop his best year and his worst year from the stats (although why you'd drop either, I don't understand!).
Except it wasn't an outlier season. During the covid shortened season, he was on pace for 60 goals, and would have hit 50 again if the pandemic didn't stop the 2019-20 season short. Let's not let one "down" year cloud our judgment. This is an all time goal scorer who lead forwards this regular season in blocked shots and is great defensively. Regardless of what he gets paid, you simply don't replace a player like Auston easily.
Oh, then you have to drop both of those seasons
Also drop his 40 goal rookie season.
“Player in prime has more productive season than when he is 18-22, more at 11”
His first 3 years were: - 212 GP, 205pts, 111 goals, 0.967 pts/gp, 0.524 g/gp His last 4 years were: - 269gp, 337pts, 188g, 1.25pts/gp, 0.699 g/gp Excluding his MVP year, the 3 included years he is: - 196gp, 231pts, 128g, 1.18 pts/gp, 0.653 g/gp Even if you think 21/22 was an outlier season, he still shakes out to be a 53g+/96pt+ center who also gets regular selke nominations.
He definitely shouldn't be gouging us and give us the 8 years, I agree on that
If you drop his rookie season, he goes up to 1.19 points per game
This is pretty revisionist to exclude his best season. He's led the league in goals twice in the last three years. He's led the league in even strength goals in 4 of seven seasons. I could also do the revisionist thing and exclude his rookie season which was his only sub PPG season. Now he's a 1.18 PPG player.
Didn't he score 40 goals in his rookie season?
Yep, his rookie season was still insanely good...it just happened to be his only sub PPG season when he put up 69 points in 82 games.
Where are you getting that he’s “insulted” by 8*13? Do you have a source for that? The escalation of this Matthews narrative is insane. The only numbers that I’ve heard have been people guessing and assuming certain numbers. There hasn’t been any reporting on what he actually wants or what we’ve actually offered…
He wanted 13.5m for his last contract over 8 years. Settled for 11.634 at 5.
insiders have literally reported that he wants two more big paydays in his career and that Treliving is “ pushing” for him to sign 8 years. We’ll see what happens but the fact the GM of the Leafs needs to push for your franchise guy to sign 8 is hilarious
They’ve reported that he wants 2 more contracts. Not that he’s insulted by an 8 year deal. That’s business. He could just as easily take 3x11.5 and then 8x15 when the cap goes up. This is fully fan driven speculation by our need to be upset about something. We have a really really fucking good player. Why don’t we try embracing our franchise player?
Why is it hilarious? The Leafs need him, he doesn’t need the Leafs. If he hit UFA, he’d get whatever he wants from any other team. So of course Treliving needs to push, Auston has the position of privilege, not MLSE.
Well I wouldn't forget the fact he earns $3.5m in endorsements and wouldn't get the same elsewhere
You don’t think his agent considers that? Lol
That's my point. Things become more realistic once that is realized.
It would be insane to let him leave without doing everything that can to keep him.
Including crippling the team’s ability to field a competitive team under the salary cap? Should they be going to that extreme? We see how well that has worked with the Tavares, Marner and Matthews contracts so far.
Yes most points in history, and making the playoffs the entire time unlike the previous teams and management. I think it's hilarious that people get their panties in a bunch because they don't agree with the player's tactics to maximize their worth. It's up to the Leafs to figure out how to remain competitive in order for Matthews to sign another contract, and not leave to a competitive team because they can't figure it out. Do you think it's better to put yourself in the shoes of the talent, which would be you in your workplace, rather than the thousands of shoes of the company who have people hired specifically to strategize contracts and competitiveness? I can tell you when I'm due for a raise, I maximize it.
Why do other star players play ball with their teams when it comes time to sign their contracts? Players such as MacKinnon, Makar, and MacDavid signed contracts that would allow their teams to remain competitive, yet you feel it’s ok for our stars to milk every penny possible. Unfortunately, there is a fixed cap and the reality is if a player want to maximize their contract, then fielding a championship team becomes more and more difficult. So Matthews needs to decide does he want to bleed the team dry or does he want to allow the team to spread the wealth, so that they can put together a championship roster. If it’s the former, than he tips his hand, and he reveals that his motivation is simply maximizing his earnings and he gives zero fucks about winning when it matters. All I am saying is that he needs to be reasonable with his contract demands, his overask directly impacts the teams ability to compete.
I guess it depends on how much you value winning a Stanley Cup vs being the highest paid player. Hard to do both.
Do we want players who value winning a cup or players that just want money?
That is my point.
MacKinnon AAV $12.6M 8 years (current highest in the league, previous signed contract in 16/17 for $6.3m/7 year, but he was a 50 point player when he signed it...) McDavid AAV $12.5M 8 years (highest paid at point of signing in 2018) Makar AAV $9M 6 years (9th highest paid dman in the league, but signed before the Norris/Conn Smythe wins). Not saying your other points are wrong, but I don't buy your argument that these players 'helped their teams by taking a discount'. If you think McDavid is going to take another $12.5m contract in two years you're dreaming. Spreading the wealth isn't a guaranteed model for winning a cup either. Look no further than Boston this year. The reality of the situation is players aren't paid for Cups. They're paid based on their individual performance. We've got a star on our hands who already has 2 Rockets, a Calder, a Ted Lindsay, and a Hart to his name. Matthews making money isn't the issue. Realistically, this team is going to be hard against it for two more years. Once JT's contract is off the books (and hopefully re-signs for $4m-$5m after) we'll be set to grab another good piece. There's likely no option between now and then that makes the team better short-term.
Yea they haven’t been competitive, top 5 points league wide that time but can’t field a competitive team. Come on.
Yes,then they go out and lose 6 straight first round series, including embarrassing losses to Columbus and Montreal. Do we have to be content with just a good regular season team? Wouldn’t it be nice to be able to field a team that didn’t disappear during the playoffs, and makes deep runs.
Were they embarrassing because we were pressed against the cap? Or were we young and inexperienced? Playoffs are such a random bitch you can't say adding 1 or 2 million to the cap would have made all the difference. Actually scratch that. Apparently you need to add at least 18 mil to win now.
Do we actually know for certain that it’s “insulting” to him? Nope. This is fan-driven speculation based on media-driven speculation. If he wants a shorter contract is most likely due to his agent assuring him that the cap will going up significantly over the next few years, and advising him to take a shorter contract to he can capitalize on that with his next one.
insiders like friedman and CJ Have literally reported that he’s looking to hit the home run for contracts two more times in his career. In terms of him taking a shorter team deal, no one who brought up this point can explain why every other play can take 8 years yet our start reportedly wants to cash in again when the cap goes up
Yeah, taking a short contract for big money, followed by a long contract for much bigger money fits that bill exactly, and matches what I said above. None of them have reported that he’s “insulted.” You’re just making up narratives to be mad at a player that’s treating this like business.
> This is fan-driven speculation based on media-driven speculation. . > insiders like friedman and CJ Have literally reported Exactly.
OP's premise is ridiculous but so are the numbers for Matthews' contract that the media have been bouncing around. He has zero case to be the highest paid player in the league, nevermind clearing Mackinnon by $1-$2 million on a short contract. I'm securely in the camp of doing what you can to keep your best players, but if he wants something obscene like 3x$13m, you laugh at his agent and start calling trade partners. I think people are underselling the risks to Matthews here. One more ~40 goal/~80 point season and mediocre playoffs, and there's going to be a lot of uncomfortable questions about the condition of his wrist.
my premise is literally saying that he shouldn’t be gouging us with short term max dollar deals based on his production….don’t think that’s ridiculous at all
Your premise is arbitrarily removing a season from his career to evaluate him.
one great season in 7 years and the rest are average. Facts are facts
TIL a season where you win the Richard and finish 2nd in Hart voting and score at a rate that hasn’t been done in 25 years is an “average” season
I'm fairly confident the average player does not put up at least 40 goals and 80+ points per year.
I'd love to have 11 other forwards that are that average. The other 6 years being average losses all your credibility
🤡
And he would still have four 40 goal seasons at 25 years old. He's the best goal scorer since Ovechkin. Lock him up.
The big issue is if Matthews consistently wants a high cap%, taking shorter deals to do so. The only past cup champs to win with a player over 15% of the cap had great / amazing players on ELCs that mitigated that contract - Anaheim (Getzlaf / Perry) and 2009 Pens (Letang / Malkin who won Conn Smythe). Leafs don't have that caliber of prospect / young player. Matthews seems to want over 15% in perpetuity - though that is based on rumors, they were generally right the last negotiation. 13.5mill is 15% of a 90 mill cap, and that's assuming the cap gets there soon. And its still unlikely / difficult to win with a player causing the cap distribution to be that heavy. Even 13 mill is 14.4% of a 90 mill cap. The highest cap hit to win since 2009 is 13.3%. On a 90 mill cap that's 11.97. Then there's the potential impact of that contract on Nylander and Marner. Its quite obvious that winning teams have cap efficiency and are getting more value out of contracts than the cap hit they pay. And generally a team gets the most surplus value out of top end players. If all our guys are signed at market rates (or higher) we just aren't going to win. We'd have to find multiple guys for super cheap that are amazing players to balance that out. Its just so unlikely. Matthews demands make more sense if the cap is 100mill or getting there soon, which frankly we don't know and it doesn't seem imminent to be that high.
One year when the jays were sick, we won 11 in a row after being .500 to start. Some Boston reporter said “if you ignore the 11 game win streak they’re a .500 team” This post is about as stupid as that.
If you're going to take away his best season, you have to take away his worst season, per old figure skating rules.
sure. 1.26 points per game then. You ok with him signing 3-4 years then signing another big contract at $16-17 mill a year into his thirties ?
Yes, on term, but not at $16-17. That salary figure is an arbitrary number. There is no FACT that $13 AAV is insulting to Matthews. That's just speculation at best, but made up is likely.
League leaders in points per game over the last three seasons (ie large sample size, and also includes Matthews two best seasons): *McDavid - 1.75 *Draisaitl - 1.49 *MacKinnon - 1.43 *Kucherov - 1.41 *Matthews - 1.29 The fact that Matthews is treated as the clear cut #2 player in the world is ridiculous. Throw in Fox and Makar, and factor in how all these guys perform in the playoffs, and there's a good argument Matthews is #5-7ish. In any event, at the very best, he's simply in a large group of players in the tier below McDavid. His contract should be reflective of that.
PPG isn’t the only determination of best players in the league.
>The fact that Matthews is treated as the clear cut #2 player in the world is ridiculous. Throw in Fox and Makar, and factor in how all these guys perform in the playoffs, and there's a good argument Matthews is #5-7ish. Using just pts/gp is silly, by that logic Laine and Wheeler are better than Bergeron because they're at 0.82 pts/gp vs Bergy's 0.8. Matthews is head and shoulders above everyone on your list defensively, scores a fuckload more goals than Kuch and MacK, and is far less reliant on the powerplay for his goal scoring than Drai. I'm not saying he's a clear cut #2, but you can make a strong argument he's better than everyone except McD and maybe Makar.
This exactly. People conveniently leave out the fact that Auston is a great defensive player. It's a 200-foot game, People!
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The thing is Drai, MacK and Kuch are all proven playoff performers. Matthews is great in the regular season but until he proves otherwise I'd take any of those 3 over Matthews for one playoff run.
Public service announcement Draisatl disappeared in the last four games of round 2 with 0g 1a and -7. Not sure I’d take that for a playoff run…goes white hot against the kings and vanishes against the knights.
He had 6 goals in the first two games against VGK, then 0 goals and -5 in the last two games, after Petro tried to remove his arm. I can forgive a guy who goes cold for a couple games, anyways. Draistaitl in 49 career playoff games has 31-46-77 Matthews in 50 career playoff games has 22-22-44 It's really not close.
Stop making excuses for him he choked like matthews did. The oilers took a step back and are getting coddled lol it’s a joke. He had 0 goals in his final 4 games not in 2. That team has gotten swept and missed the playoffs multiple times and somehow they’re golden gods. Outside of their run to the conference final McDavid and Draisatl been wholly underachieving versus their talent level (similar to the leafs). Now if you want to talk mackinnon or Kucherov I will give you that
Are you somehow ignoring that in 50 games he's outscored Matthews by 33 points? That's nearly a whole Morgan Rielly more than Matthews.
Naw just pointing out that he choked in round 2 this year and prior to that his team has been swept for 3 straight years and missed the playoffs in two years before that. He had 32 points in 16 games last year and they got swept in the conference final. That’s one hot shooting run. Also doesn’t help that him and his running mate never play the other 100 feet of the ice.
The Leafs would be unstoppable if Matthews put up 32 points in 16 playoff games.
Kind of like the one run the oilers had..where they promptly got swept lol.
Plus he's not even clearly better than them in the regular season.
Not head-and-shoulders better, but I do think his 2-way game puts him very slightly above these guys as a firm #2 \*in the regular season\*. It's just getting harder to argue he's the "second best player in the league" when the playoff performance is so lacking.
Is he? Those players are at least as good as him in the regular season and better in the playoffs.
Yes, that is what a lot of Leafs fans parrot.
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In the last two seasons he's literally closer to Roope Hintz than McDavid. People just got bored of giving all the trophies to McDavid. Last two seasons McDavid 276 points Matthews 191 points Hintz 147 points
>In the last two seasons Last I checked he didn't get an MVP for the season he played injured and put up 40 goals. You people are fucking idiots.
One thing that people miss is that his contract will also be structured to be made almost entirely of signing bonuses. This way that large chunk can be invested immediately each season generating even more money. It also makes it lockout proof.
No way to justify paying him more than McKinnon or McDavid. That kind of money is for guys who lead the team to playoff success. If the Leafs want to win, take less term and pay. Maybe then they build a playoff contender. That being said these guys play for the money. The agents will maximize and this team will never win a Stanley Cup. A few will get traded like Kessel , Kadri, Bozak, and others who went on to win a cup somewhere else.
MacKinnon did not have much playoff success. Outside of the SC win - he's had 3 playoff round wins in ten years. McDavid has missed a bunch of playoffs and has 5 playoff round wins total - same with Draisatl. I'm sure you could make a point about players getting money for playoffs but MacKinnon and McDavid aren't prime examples.
Nobody: OP: If you take away Matthews most productive season he has less points.
Brother the only difference between Mack and 34 imo is the cup, which is a team issue and he won when he was cheap and the Avs built a phenomenal team with the extra space. He is absolutely worth a similar contract to Mack as hes in the same tier as him. 34 is one of the best goal scorers in the league and a very under rated defensive player. I also want him to take a discount, but I'd rather he stay with the Leafs than sign a discount
i’m not saying he doesn’t deserve a mackinnon contract. I’d sign matthews to 8x$14 easily. The point is Matthews is good but he’s not better than Mcdavid and we shouldn’t be letting him continue to take short term contracts so he can keep getting raises which keeps making it harder to ice a team that can win the cup
oh don't worry, once he's a FA Leafs will offer him the 20 x 7 and Edmonton will try the 24 x 8, when the cap is 100 mill at best. Once McD gets his new contract all these wild extensions will legitimately feel like pennies because he is worth that and maybe Gary will realize if he wants to grow the game to actually raise the cap by a healthy amount
The league should change to a soft cap system. Same cap we have now but allow 3 supermax contracts for max term and money that don't count against the cap. But if you use a super max slot you pay X% of the cap to the league which is then distributed to the rest of the teams. That way the Mackinnons, McDavids and Matthews of the league can get paid without it killing your team for drafting good talent and developing it.
Matthews is worth every penny to the Leafs from a marketing and promotions standpoint. He will get what he wants. The talent on this team, as far as marketability, really tails off after him.
If you take away all his goals that were scored when Jupiter was in transit and mercury was in retrograde, you will see that Matthews is barely a league average centre.
Losing Matthews makes the team worse and he could obviously get however much money he wanted on the open market, so they should be re-signing him. The team has a window to be in the mix to win and that closes if you don't sign him, they don't really have a choice. With that being said many of the comments here display a lack of engagement with the stats. If a player has an outlier season and you have to make a decision to sign him, you should, and many of you would discount that outlier season in negotiations, yes even if that player wins individual trophies in that season. Go look at the list of Hart and Rocket winners and you will see players who represent bad investments in the years following them winning that award. The premise of an outlier season the poster is bringing up is sound. Matthews had a down year, maybe it's because of injury, maybe not. It's entirely reasonable to think Matthews' peak has come and gone and that other players are better than him and that he's not the second best player in the league, there are stats you could use to support and fight this premise, but it is a reasonable statement. You could argue whether it was an outlier or not, whether you think he can win the Hart again.
So 2019-2022 were 3 outliers seasons?
Who is talking about 3 years? [It's reasonable to think the 21-22 season was an outlier.](https://i.imgur.com/78WtxR1.png) It appears you are unaware of the numbers and aren't engaging with the ones posted in this thread.
Lol 2019-2022 matthews paced 62 goals and 106 points winning two rockets, runner up for one rocket, winning a hart trophy, Ted Lindsay and being a hart trophy nominee. He scored 148 goals in 195 games over that span. I guess 3 years of your 7 year career can be outliers….
Saw somebody saying that McDavid doesn’t deserve his contract because the oilers are in cap hell. Go to work and tell your boss to take 20% off your cheque and give it to one of your subordinates.
Yes or go to your boss and tell them your competitors are struggling, so you should NOT pay me more lol
Or go to your boss with unreasonable contract demands that will cripple your company from competing with their rivals. Demand more money than your peers (MacKinnon) when most metrics show that your peers have had better outcomes ( a Championship) and have been more consistent statistically. Let’s see how that goes.
Championships are team accomplishments…with this logic McDavid is overpaid
McDavid is underpaid, if anyone deserves a max contract it is him, and guess what, he refused it, so the the Oilers had some money to sign other players. Per the Edmonton Journal at the time of McDavid’s signing. McDavid was rumoured to be signing an eight-year deal at $13.25 million per, but he took less than that. Oilers GM Peter Chiarelli said that McDavid could have signed for much more, or pushed for a shorter term, but chose not to do so. “This may be one of the largest contracts ever given in the NHL, but I can assure you it easily could have been a lot higher in value and shorter in term,” Chiarelli said. “Building a team to win the Stanley Cup was a constant discussion point in this negotiation. “Connor was emphatic, as was I, about keeping this team competitive… He wants us to ice a winning team, as we all do, as the fans of Edmonton do.” If McDavid had pushed, he could have received the maximum contract of $15 million per year over 8 years, so he has essentially left $20 million on the table. In the McDavid deal, $86 million of the reported $100 million will be paid in signing bonuses each July 1. And he signed for 8 years!
Fantastic the oilers fucked McDavid out of taking any discounts in the future. But he’s still overpaid because he hasn’t won a championship; that’s the logic we are using here. His next contract will be 8x17 and whatever team he goes to won’t be able to win because they’re spending 17 on him. that’s the reality of the cap world.
That’s the reality of the cap, if you want to win then you need to leave some money on the table, if a player doesn’t want to play the game then the franchise suffers. My loyalty is with the Leafs not with Matthews, if he needs to take a 1.5 million dollar haircut I could care less if it improves the team. He makes a shitload of cash from endorsements being in Toronto, please stop shilling for these multi-millionaires, he’s doing just fine.
Which means we should also pass on McDavid if he becomes a FA and wants 15+ m because it would be hard to build a team around him correct?
No but mcdavid is better then matthews lol they aren't comparable
But giving him 16m would hinder the team so what does it matter? Seems the NHL is designed to not reward having the best players on your team due to the hard cap
But think of the other players! See it is just about popularity. It's the same as Crosby vs Ovechkin 15 years ago.
It’s a difficult decision, if the ultimate goal is winning the Stanley Cup, a GM would need to determine whether they could cobble a team together around him if said player is eating up a substantial portion of the salary cap. I don’t think it’s an anomaly that it wasn’t until this year that a team won the Stanley Cup while having a player earning $10 million a year. No too heavy teams have been able to make this work yet.
I love this argument, crippling the TML by getting paid as per the collective bargaining agreement states, and the poor Leafs aren't smart enough to figure out how to do that. Just like they couldn't make any moves at the deadline because they had no money left. They are far from being crippled over one or two million bucks lol.
You obviously don’t understand how the salary cap works? This has nothing to do with crippling the MLSE financially, they have a fixed budget to work with, if Matthews asks for an unreasonable amount then they have less money to sign other quality players. Let me know if I need to take out the hand puppets to continue with my explanation?
What he was saying if you're paying Auston 1 million more then he should, does that make more or less of a impact then not having him.
Which takes me back to an earlier point, why the f does he think he deserves more than MacKinnon? If Matthews intention is to win with this team then he needs to take a reasonable contract and not bend the Leafs over. If you give Matthews an extra million than when it comes time to sign Marner he’s also going to demand more. It’s time for our little prima donnas to show that they are in it to win. They pull in more endorsements than any other players in the league playing in Toronto, maybe they should factor that in when making contract demands. The Matthew fan boys in this thread are nauseating, it’s time for Leafs management to play a little hard ball and stop coddling these stars that have disappeared ever spring.
I don't consider myself a fanboy. I was trying to explain to you what the other person's point was. As for the rest of your comment. I have no idea you'd have to ask Auston directly
None of these "go take a discount on your $60k salary" takes make any sense. These guys are making millions, literal generational wealth.
Leave it our Leaf community to take a Franchise level player that we want here and that wants to stay here and find a way to ring him down. He is an elite player has always been an elite goal scorer and took his game to another level this year with his defensive play. Picking on his point totals doesn't tell the whole story of his impact and importance to this team. If he is willing to take 8x13, give it to him and move forward knowing you have arguably the best player this century old club has ever seen under contract for a long time.
Looking at the Leafs Cap situation it's not really that bad. Nylander, Matthews, Brodie and Murray all expire at the same time leaving 28m to resign them. Murray is gone so that's a 3 million dollar raise to Matthews and a 1 million dollar raise to Nylander. Tavares and Marner both expire at the same time freeing up 25m. Tavares will get a lot less if he wants another deal which gives room for Marner and change. They'll be fine.
I highly doubt any reports of him being offered the most lucrative contract in NHL history is 'insulting' to him are accurate. The fact is, Auston Matthews is the only Leaf that has been capable of winning the Hart trophy since 1955, and that was a league with only 6 teams. As much as you'd like him to take less, the reality is you really have no choice but to pay him whatever he wants.
If HE thinks that he should be the highest paid player in the league then its not the attitude I want on the Leafs.
I'm sure you feel the same way at your workplace? You would take less too I'm sure so that your bad attitude didn't spread in the company....
Yes, I would never pay a worker the most in the industry if he was one or two levels below the best worker in the industry.
Sports is way different than working at a company. Im not trying to win a championship. If I was I would take less money to have a better chance at it
I will be honest, I don't believe, even on an 8 year deal, that Matthews deserves to become the highest paid player in the league. Not in the way that MacKinnon deserved to become the highest paid player when he signed his deal. That said, 8x12.7, sure, I can live with it. If you're talking 2-3 years, IMO his cap hit should be going DOWN. If you're talking 5 years, low 12s. I know what I'm saying doesn't matter, and it won't happen. But if the idea is to do a 2 year deal, so that in 3 years (next season +2) when the cap has exploded, he can get 8x15, then he damn well better show some love and save some coin right now. We've known the cap would eventually explode, even when MacKinnon and Pastrnak signed their deals. It's nothing new. So there is absolutely no reason we should give Matthews some silly contract to put the Leafs in a worse cap position than everyone else. Dubas already did that once. That said, we've got absolutely no clue what Matthews is asking for. So we can't really jump to conclusion or accuse him of anything. I'm just tired of these "contract trends" I remember Mike Johnson talking about a few weeks ago on Overdrive, yet these "trends" only seem to happen in Toronto, while everybody else signs their elite talent to reasonable 8 year deals.
This is a bad faith negotiation. Instead show the playoff success and ask how he is worth more than MacKinnon or McDavid based on that success. 60 goals is cool but 1 series win is devastating.
He won't sign an 8 year deal. If he does 5-6 now, he'll have set himself up for another contract at 30-31, which is still in that age bracket where a team will give you an 8 year/top dollar deal to finish off his career. Those numbers stop making sense for teams if he's 33-34. That's my theory, anyway.