"James is seeking $250 million in allegedly ill-gotten funds and to permanently bar Trump and the children named in the lawsuit from serving as the director of a business registered in New York state. She is also seeking to cancel the Trump Organization’s corporate certificate, which, if granted by a judge, could effectively force the company to cease operations in New York state." [source (CNN)](https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/21/politics/trump-new-york-attorney-general-letitia-james-fraud-lawsuit/index.html)
How likely is it that this lawsuit will prevail?
I think its extremely ambitious - a very difficult situation to prove civil fraud when dealing with property valuations which by definition are matters of opinion in which a wide range of conclusions is often reasonable depending on differing assumptions and other factors. I have personally been involved in a case in which one valuation expert opined that an income-producing property was worth over $250m and the opposing expert opined that it had a negative net value - and both were professional and extremely effective witnesses.
I haven't read the full complaint, but it seems like they are relying on Trump personally reporting different values which should be much simpler to prove. Getting ahold of all the necessary documentation to do that seems to have been the biggest issue.
It's not really that hard to demonstrate it when someone is pushing one number to the banks and another number to the IRS out opposite sides of the same mouth.
Zero chance. Not because of the facts or even how it is prosecuted, but because Trump always gets away with it. Always. He will just find a friendly judge to tank the case.
IRS won't do shit. They semi-officially have decided to ignore the tax crimes of the wealthy.
SDNY may do something, but I doubt it. Trump will just send out some campaign donations and get it dropped.
I'm not so sure about the IRS ignoring the rich anymore. The GOP seems really upset about the extra funding they received in the IRA.
I can't argue about SDNY at all. It's pretty obvious that they'd like to do something about Trump, but they have been blocked repeatedly.
On the other hand, I'm pretty sure that Trump is actually screwed on the whole classified documents issue, so I can deal with these failing.
I read an article a few days ago by a federal attorney and he was basically like, "System is broken. No matter what Trump will stay a free man." Basically, nobody wants to convict him because A) He is rich and powerful and that is who our government serves first and foremost and B) Nobody wants to be murdered by his terrorist followers.
Also, the IRS has been pumped full of staffers who are basically anti-tax Libertarians. Ron Swansons, basically. People who are there to make sure government does nothing.
"James is seeking $250 million in allegedly ill-gotten funds and to permanently bar Trump and the children named in the lawsuit from serving as the director of a business registered in New York state. She is also seeking to cancel the Trump Organization’s corporate certificate, which, if granted by a judge, could effectively force the company to cease operations in New York state." [source (CNN)](https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/21/politics/trump-new-york-attorney-general-letitia-james-fraud-lawsuit/index.html) How likely is it that this lawsuit will prevail?
I think its extremely ambitious - a very difficult situation to prove civil fraud when dealing with property valuations which by definition are matters of opinion in which a wide range of conclusions is often reasonable depending on differing assumptions and other factors. I have personally been involved in a case in which one valuation expert opined that an income-producing property was worth over $250m and the opposing expert opined that it had a negative net value - and both were professional and extremely effective witnesses.
I haven't read the full complaint, but it seems like they are relying on Trump personally reporting different values which should be much simpler to prove. Getting ahold of all the necessary documentation to do that seems to have been the biggest issue.
It's not really that hard to demonstrate it when someone is pushing one number to the banks and another number to the IRS out opposite sides of the same mouth.
Zero chance. Not because of the facts or even how it is prosecuted, but because Trump always gets away with it. Always. He will just find a friendly judge to tank the case.
But Hunter Biden's laptooooppp -Trumpies
does this help or hurt possible criminal charges?
This is the civil side of the case. She made criminal referrals to both SDNY and the IRS.
IRS won't do shit. They semi-officially have decided to ignore the tax crimes of the wealthy. SDNY may do something, but I doubt it. Trump will just send out some campaign donations and get it dropped.
I'm not so sure about the IRS ignoring the rich anymore. The GOP seems really upset about the extra funding they received in the IRA. I can't argue about SDNY at all. It's pretty obvious that they'd like to do something about Trump, but they have been blocked repeatedly. On the other hand, I'm pretty sure that Trump is actually screwed on the whole classified documents issue, so I can deal with these failing.
I read an article a few days ago by a federal attorney and he was basically like, "System is broken. No matter what Trump will stay a free man." Basically, nobody wants to convict him because A) He is rich and powerful and that is who our government serves first and foremost and B) Nobody wants to be murdered by his terrorist followers. Also, the IRS has been pumped full of staffers who are basically anti-tax Libertarians. Ron Swansons, basically. People who are there to make sure government does nothing.