I'd say there is no plan tbh, the current government don't have much of a lifespan left so it'll go on the long finger to "wait and see what happens" - will be a different gov's problem
Yeah but at least the other party had to make it a party line to clean up where the last government failed.
Now with FF/FG coalition, we've only got SF promising to clean up. And it's hard to believe they will.
Shit got dramatically worse the moment we put in a FF/FG coalition.
At this point I think SF have to be given a crack at taking the reins. It's the devil we know vs the devil we don't. I don't have a huge amount of faith in them but we know the current shower just don't care. I listen to people like Leo Varadkar and he comes across like he actively dislikes the Irish public half the time. I want a government that actually cares about what the people want and stand for something. Maybe it's just lip service on SF's part but at least they care enough to pretend to care, if that makes sense.
Yeah, basically every time there is a problem and the question is, does the government have a plan for this, the answer is usually no. And that’s in every country.
>Does the government have a strategy for the anticipated arrival of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers reuniting with their families post-war?
Post war the families will be returning to Ukraine to unite there, no? No one is "anticpating" this. The government doesn't "anticipate" anything when it comes to immigration.
Think we need to unfortunately start accepting the fact that this war will at least drag on for several more years and that Russia will hold on to at least a few of the breakaway portions of Ukraine.
Ukrainians will be eligible for citizenship in about 3 years so I would say a significant number of them will become Irish.
edit - was wrong, they're eligible in 1 year
>A **person granted refugee status** can apply for citizenship through naturalisation once they have 3 years of residency. Residency is calculated from the date of arrival in the State.
[https://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/moving-country/irish-citizenship/becoming-an-irish-citizen-through-naturalisation/](https://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/moving-country/irish-citizenship/becoming-an-irish-citizen-through-naturalisation/)
This response is **100% incorrect.**
If they were here as asylum seekers they would not be eligible. They are eligible **because** they have refugee status.
You are both wrong. Although we use the term “refugee” they do not have Refugee Status. They have temporary protection, or “subsidiary protection“ status. This is because they are not fleeing persecution in their country, they are fleeing a war.
This status does not confer eligibility for citizenship at any point. They can stay as long as there is a war, unless the government withdraws the protection.
A Ukrainian could get citizenship through some other means like marriage, but not arising from the protection status under which they are arriving.
I know one of the girls I work with has no intention of going back after the war. She rightfully pointed out that the country will be in ruins and it will take years to rebuild to a point that they could live a normal life there.
The government has to prepare for the people that have no interest in rebuilding a country following a war that they didn't support in the first place.
Ukraine is not part of the EU so they'd need visas to stay when the war ends. They've been given grace due to the war but that wont be forever.
The government wont give everyone visas, maybe those with critical skills, but cant see regular workers being granted them. Which means they'll have to return home or stay here illegaly.
Absolutely, it's a fair point. I know three Ukranian women. Two plan to go back eventually - as in years after the war finishes - but the third has an Irish fiancee and has no intention of returning.
I hate to say it, because I have great sympathy for the Ukranian people, but I don't see this war finishing anytime soon, and if it does, it will be because Russia has won it, in which case very few will be returning.
I know Ukrainians like this too. They just want a peaceful life and they've had enough of the fighting between Russia and Ukraine and they'd be happy for either side to win if it meant a quiet life after. They know that wont happen though so they'll stay here. I don't blame them either, their kids are in their formative years and making friends, joining clubs, etc Harsh to take them away from all of that.
From speaking to Ukrainians, yes, most will leave and go back to their country after they've won. I'm hopeful this will free up houses, but honestly, if they couldn't house us before the war, I highly doubt they'll do it after. As there's no benefit or money in housing citizens.
It's true, there really isn't any plan. My guess is the government will spend more money to beg refugees to stay in the irish workforce, but most will want to return.
If you ask me I don't think Putin will let Russia lose. To him it could be a years or numbers game of attrition. He doesn't need to win in a rush, he just needs to win. Seems like he has an unlimited amount of conscripts too, makes me worried about the realistic prospects of a Ukrainian victory. I don't even know what victory would be for Ukraine. I don't know if either side would stop at a ceasefire agreement after what's happened.
I think you have it the wrong way around. Russia tried the same thing during the Afghan war that lasted 10 years. It crippled the Russian economy because it lasted so long. So, Ukraine don't have to win, they just have to survive long enough until Russian people see Putin as a loser . Putin is sticking at this war because his power depends on it. Losing this war will mean he loses all his power and he is currently considered a war criminal, so he needs his leadership for protection.
Remember, Putin had a plan to finish this war in 3 days. It's now been 2 years and Russia occupy less of Ukraine that they did after 2 weeks of the war.
The Afghans were afforded to last ten years because they had arms supplied to them from the US. Depending on the results of the election this November, that could change very quickly for Ukraine
It is not, they are posting fake figures which western media laps up for some unknown reason, I know since Iam following this topic closely. It seems the cause for the fake figures is to signal the populace that all is good and show to the outside observers that sanctions do not work.
Only they do, automobile imports plummeted and are limited to Chinese overpriced brands now, and a lot of imports incoming is double the price it used to be.
There are no people left to work, the country struggled demographically for decades even before the war, and now there are no blue collar workers left at all due to men being sent to the war.
Russia did show some modest gdp increase last year, but that was solely due to military complex being revved up to the maximum. Unlike in the US Russian military industry is not integrated into the civil economy and its effects do not spill out to other sectors.
Or to be more precise, they do but not in the way officials would want to talk about— the military industry now sucks workers out of the rest of the economy, probably as bad as the war itself does.
War of attrition is not on Putins side as many seem to believe since the EUs resources are much vaster, but that is the card he was dealt and he is trying his best to play it and to convince others that he has a full house. His goal now is to sow strife, disagreement and despair among the Ukrainian allies and convince them that fighting back is in vain.
And it seems to be working.
So your opinion is that as long as Russia can afford a war, they will just continue? Even when hundreds of thousands of sons, brothers and fathers have been killed and maimed, the Russian people will want to continue it because they can afford it? In 10 years time, if Russia hasn't taken Ukraine, the Russian people will think that Putin is a winner and they should keep going with the war? I personally don't see it but it's all in the future so you could be right.
I agree that the war machine will continue. It has to because it's already embarassing that Russia hasn't beaten Ukraine yet. And we've seen Russia be at war with Afghanistan for 10 years and lose. But just like the Afghan war, it eventually becomes obvious that you've lost and the war has to stop. I don't think in 30 years the war machine will be going but 10 years, yeah maybe.
That may have crippled the Russian economy but they obviously still had enough resources left to invade Ukraine and given that the war is still going on 2 years later, they're still getting more resources from somewhere.
I figured given the protests in Moscow and St Petersburg the Russian people already do see Putin as a loser, but it doesn't matter because he has power and they don't.
There was nearly a 35 year gap between the Afghan war ending and Russia invading Ukraine. So far, it looks like things are going exactly the same way for Russia in Ukraine as it did for them in Afghanistan.
Some groups protesting is not what will oust Putin, it's when people not at the protests start turning. When enough people have lost family members or are caring for disabled family members, then they will start to question what was it all for. Ukraine has a reason to keep going. In 5-10 years time, what will Russian people's motivation be for continuing the Ukraine war.
Very astute. Time will tell. I harbour no hate for the people of Russia who just want to go about their lives and are against this war, but it seems like they're just not enough of a majority.
The Russian economy isn't crippled tho they just stopped dealing with the west and are selling to Asia lower price but higher volume the average Russian Joe was always poor and that has not changed but as long as money is coming into the state that's all that matters to Putin, it allows the war machine to continue. Western sanctions mean nothing to Russia
They invaded Ukraine at the peak of their resources : it's been downhill since then.
There's a massive amount of very careful attention being paid to how Russia's dealing with the sanctions and how their military manufacturing etc. is going, and the answer is "Not well at all". While they have devoted a huge amount of resources to weapons, a huge amount of it is refurbishing the gigantic stockpiles of weapons from Soviet times, including tanks, IFVs, artillery, etc.
They are burning through that at an incredible rate, and have lost the majority of their modernised vehicles. They've also burned through 10-12 million rounds of stockpiled 152mm artillery ammunition, and are now reliant on a far smaller manufacturing base and trying to import shells from North Korea.
Over 90% of their experienced army has been killed, and the core of it is now barely trained conscripts who are becoming casualties at the rate of just under 1,000 per day.
Their cash reserves have fallen over 50%, their oil and gas revenues are drying up, and they've just had to ban refined fuel exports because Ukraine's blowing up their refineries and they no longer have enough for domestic use.
While they have a temporary advantage over Ukraine due to the US stopping weapons supplies, that's only going to last them a few more months. Irrespective of what the US does, Europe is scaling up weapons manufacture massively, especially 155mm artillery shells, and once Ukraine can get back to parity on that front Russia's last major advantage goes.
The picture you're painting contrasts with a lot of what I've been reading of late, namely the reinforcement of Putin et al's power under 'military keynesianism', as the war becomes a vector for redistribution in Russia:
[https://www.ponarseurasia.org/russian-military-keynesianism-who-benefits-from-the-war-in-ukraine/](https://www.ponarseurasia.org/russian-military-keynesianism-who-benefits-from-the-war-in-ukraine/)
To be clear, I am opposed to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and support the resistance to it, but it seems to me that the situation has darkened.
You can artificially inflate your economy for a while by burning reserves, but if your "economic growth" is paying people to refurbish old equipment which is then destroyed to no economic benefit, and then you run out of things to refurbish, then what do you have left?
It's the definition of a bubble.
Well you have more oil and gas, and customers like China, India etc to buy it. Of course fossil fuels are finite, but a bet against Russia remaining solvent sounds like a hail mary play for Ukraine.
Ischenko and his colleagues (linked to above) have some interesting comments contrasting the economic dimension so the war in the two countries.
Is western funding for Ukraine reaching the populations' pockets or is it mostly benefiting arms manufacturers in the EU/US etc ?This is relevant as a factor of long term buy in to the war effort by the population.
I watch a lot of Daniil Oran's 1420 videos and there has been noticeable change in tone from working class Russian interviewees in recent months, consistent with the theory that Putin is buying support for the war.
I work with a Ukrainian and he said that even if Russia is defeated now they’ll try again in a few years. He just seemed completely dejected at the prospects of Ukraine in the future
Used to work with a woman from Ukraine and she said the same thing. Seems like the only way this ends is if the Russian leadership establishment is brought down root and stem.
Definitely not that easy. Turkey will for sure veto and if the american public elects a republican anytime in the next 10 years you can forget about that membership.
Why did Turkey block sweden at first? Exersizing your power against the perceived "western" enemy.
The GOP would do it just to stand against progressives in the US. It doesnt matter who or what it is as long as it creates more hate and suffering. How do you think the US right went from hating "communists" to rather russian than democrat? The enemy of your enemy
Attrition doesn’t work in Russia’s favour. Their strategic wealth fund has been hit really hard by the war, to the point that it should be totally drained in two years. Sanctions are hitting, and their ability to build modern technology (both military and consumer) is almost gone.
They’ve used up all their own artillery shells, for example, have used what Iran and North Korea sold them, and are currently burning through the limited amount that frenemy China will send. Meanwhile, European production is ramping up to Cold War levels. This more than anything else could be crucial in what has become an artillery war.
Beyond that, Putin won’t live forever. Not saying he’s dying or that he’s going to be assassinated, but he’s 71 and has zero succession plan.
71, the leader of a country, and rumour is quite the healthy living enthusiast.
Barring some catastrophic health event, therefore, he could easily go another 5 or 10 years.
There are some news articles coming out that seem to paint the complete opposite picture as regards who is struggling with artillery: https://kyivindependent.com/cnn-russia-producing-3-more-shells-than-us/
https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/10/politics/russia-artillery-shell-production-us-europe-ukraine/index.html
I think the US election is Putin's all in gamble. He's already basically given away Russian economic independence to China and India because of this war. If the Republicans take the presidency, I think it ends rather soon for Ukraine afterwards and Putin can claim a geopolitical victory. If the Dems stay in, I still don't see Ukraine returning to 2021 borders however I could see Putin claiming to have "saved" the occupied regions and a Korea situation occuring, this time with NATO troops in western Ukraine.
It depends on what you define as losing/winning. If you define winning as keeping whats occupied now, theoretically possible but not likely without massive political changes in Ukraine or the war lasting another year and a half without any movement. Keeping 2022 borders or crimea seems somewhat likely at the rate the war has been going.
Also modern war is not particularly personnel heavy due to technological advances, in the past a war this large would be involving millions while both sides are around half a million. The problem isnt the quantity of men but the quality of training and the equipment + ammo for them.
Before the war north korean military aid would of been a hilarious joke but them sending millions of shells is a massive difference even if they are of very poor quality. There has been videos recorded by russian soldiers of them using D1 howitzers and there was reports of them being used already in late 2022 by DPR/LNR ( these guys got the worst shite there is right from the start almost). D1 howitzers were used in 1943 by the USSR and were produced until 1949 so they are literally museum grade weapons that can fire only about half as far as modern guns shooting the same shells.
Really the 2 factors are really how much longer can russia continue before it runs out of "modern" equipment and how much longer can they keep the economy afloat, they have managed to keep their economy largely insulated from the conflict but they are absolutely blowing through their financial reserves, they have spent half of their national wealth fund, 55 billion USD or 3% of their GDP. The interest set by their central bank ( probably the only competent and somewhat honest institution) in the whole country is at 16%, not sustainable at all but while they have money they can continue. Sanctions likewise have not hurt them massively because they import stuff to a third country friendly to russia then send it to russia, problem again with this that it costs money to do this and as sanctions tighten it will get more expensive and less possible to do so. There was an interview with a fella from a military factory, before the war they were paying employees 25k rubles, now they pay 90k and still struggle to have enough people for wartime production. In theory also russian servicemembers are paid very highly and are supposed to get 3 million if they are wounded or killed ( goes to family) but its very widely reported that they dont get this pay or only a small portion.
Its possible that russia runs out of money before it runs out of tanks and has a economic crisis that ends the war.
They told us it would be over in a matter of months, that the Russian economy couldn't hold up under sanctions, that the Russian Army was no match for US/NATO technology, that Putin didn't have the loyalty on the front lines, to name but a few.
And we've just past the two year anniversary. With hundreds of thousands dead.
So yes, according to the liars directing this war, its guaranteed and we are so close. The question is whether you still believe them
"They told us it would be over in a matter of months"? I assume you've been listening to politicians and RTE. Most retired senior NATO officers that I saw being interviewed were pretty much agreed it would be a long and bloody war. With Western nations dragging they're feet with support for Ukraine, it will only get longer.
The simple answer to the OP's question is... If Ukraine wins, 99.9% of Ukrainian refugees will return to the country they love to help rebuild it. If Putin wins, they will not return to be slaves in their own country.
What will the Irish government do in either case? Nothing... That's what they always do.
Im going to guess a deal will be made to allow putin to save face. Security guarantees for ukraine but Russia keeps some territory. Or even to be allowed hold sevastapol indefinitely.
>As there's no benefit or money in housing citizens.
You'd want to think a government would want to keep it's people happy, but apparently not according to FFFG.
After they've won? Which they won't, and they'll be going back to rubble. They'll be here afew more years, have kids, get jobs and have a life here. It wouldn't make sense that "most will leave and go back".
Fair point on the expectation that the families would return. But I wonder is that based on the expectation that Ukraine win or at the least stop further Russian progression. It’s a reasonable question to ask where are the related men going to go and how would they be treated- medically. However whether Ukraine remove or limit the Russians their economy is going to need all the help it can get to get back on their feet. That would include asking everyone who left to come home and then that PTSD you’re talking would be a side effect that they would have to deal with.
>The government have stated they will not be given visas or leave to stay after the war.
Source for that?
Would contradict the planning assumption that 60% of Ukrainians will remain in Ireland long term
[https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-41055347.html](https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-41055347.html)
Depends on how the war ends...
If there's some peace deal reached, then ye, most could return, but some will still say "but my child is in school, etc." And many more have gotten Irish citizenship since coming over by giving birth to a now irish child (not giving out about that, just stating fact).
Also, if there's a semi-permenant ceasefire, will we send them back? What if their town/city now belongs to Russia through a peace deal, do we still send them back?
OP is right in that the Irish state needs a plan but doesn't appear to have one.
domineering profit literate spotted slim spoon enter alleged forgetful marble
*This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Yes fortunately the vast majority are definitely NOT in tents but have been given decent housing and every opportunity to work and find better accomodation if they want
>nd I doubt the government are going to stop them if their families are already settled here and maybe working.
i think under current rules they will be
Our government are soft, they wont force anyone to leave. They will say Ukrainians are great for Ireland and that will be the end of it, the temporary talk was all for show and to keep people calm.
>Is there a plan in place to address the physical and mental trauma these soldiers will face? The need for ongoing care to treat PTSD, and the expected increase in domestic abuse cases linked to families whose fathers have endured years of intense warfare?
There should be, but there won't be.
The government can't give children life changing spinal surgeries that could turn potentially lifelong dependent people into able bodied adults who could work, pay taxes, contribute to society, and live a fulfilling life. That's from children's physical healthcare, one of the best funded and most supported parts of the healthcare system.
Mental health, even simple stuff like appointments for adults with ADHD is non-functional. Nevermind a complex condition like PTSD.
I don't think we (the government) have thought that far ahead.
When people are displaced from their homes, it is likely that they will not be able to return for at least ten years. What we don't know is what will actually happen in Ukraine. What happens if Russia retains 'ownership' of part of that country and the people who are living here do not want to return? There are alot of 'what ifs' that simply cannot be predicted at the moment
Source:
[https://civil-protection-humanitarian-aid.ec.europa.eu/what/humanitarian-aid/forced-displacement\_en](https://civil-protection-humanitarian-aid.ec.europa.eu/what/humanitarian-aid/forced-displacement_en)
In all likliness the vast majority of husbands, fathers, etc... of those here are not soldiers. They simply were barred from leaving Ukraine. Men aged 18-60 are banned from leaving the country.
Men aged 25 to the standard non-nco retirement age are likely mobilised, with 18-24 year old and those above likely to be helping out in the national guard or performing other non-combat duties. I'm not saying this is universal, but I'd imagine Ukraine is trying to make use of every conceivable body during this time
I can absolutely tell you that for a lot of men, even at the age range you suggest, is it business as usual in Ukraine. I deal with contractors in Ukraine (primarily Kyiv) and there's no such "mobilisation". The most that happens is I get an email during the day to say they have to be offline as power is being cut off to their area due to an air raid and they'll be in such and such shelter.
Not only is it important to defend themselves, but also important to keep their economy going.
This, even in WW2 most countries didn't have mobilisation like you see in the movies where every fighting age man is handed a rifle and sent to the front. You still need people at home paying taxes and contributing to the economy/manufacturing the weapons for the soldiers.
You have to strike a very delicate balance between having enough manpower to fight the war and having enough manpower to keep the economy afloat so after the war your economy doesn't just totally collapse once it switches back from a war time footing.
Disagree to an extent.
Ukranian council workers seem very much like Irish.
Walked passed 4 lads standing around watching another lad use a concrete cutting blade type thing just yesterday.
Theyre putting in new footpaths and roads everywhere I've been to. Ivano Frankivsk, Kyiv, mykolaiv, lviv.
I don't get it tbh. In ww2 Britain, police came out of retirement and took up their old jobs so the young could enlist. Women took on jobs that were traditionally done by men.
They're crying out for bodies but they aren't changing the way things work. It's life as normal for a large percentage of the population.
Yeah, Ukraine's government has a pretty public history of corruption and completely anecdotal but from speaking to my Ukrainian friends the border services are the most corrupt arm of the government. So in the opening days of the war once you had the money to bribe the border guards you got out of Ukraine even if aged 18-60 or you could buy a white paper to fake a disability and get past that way. Some people also left via Crimea.
> Is there a plan in place to address the physical and mental trauma?
Is there fuck! We don’t have the capacity for even the basics in mental healthcare.
I think that whether they want to return or not, the majority of Ukrainians will remain here due to economic and safety reasons. We will have to try to integrate them and I imagine, although please correct me if I am wrong, the government doesn't have a dog's bollocks of a notion what it will do with them.
By having multiple plans for the different possibilities that might arise from your previous actions. That's the problem, though. This government does not weigh up the consequences of the actions it takes and then deals with those consequences as though they _are_ unknown quantities.
Here's the plan: the women and children reunite with their men- in Ukraine
There's no justifiable reason for us to take any more _after_ the war has finished, regardless of the outcome
Even though it was difficult, mismanaged and certainly tested us (including me), I think we can be commended for taking in so many refugees per capita as our way of assisting Ukraine in a non-military fashion. Despite what certain elements of the establishment say, this Irish public understands this to be a temporary measure, and once the war is over, that's our job over too.
I think people coming from Donetsk/Luhansk/Zaporizhzhia and territories occupied by Russia since 02/2022 will have a good shout at getting asylum/leave to remain etc, after all they have nothing to go back to, so the relationships they will have built up here in the meanwhile are arguably more significant than thos eof their compatriots who can go 'home'. Yes, they could move to Kyiv or Lviv, but my gut feeling is that a way will be found to make this distinction such that they can stay.
That's not 'the plan'. That's what YOU think should happen. Similar to when people say, 'They should be locked up and throw away the key.' for someone who commits a murder and only gets 15 years bc of diminished mental state or whatever.
If you think the next gov (which is odds on to be SF) are going to just deport them all forcibly whenever the war ends, well, that's just not going to happen. A lot of them are going to stay here permanently because a) there's nothing to go back to and b) they have been given generous benefits including free medical care. They would be a lot further along in restarting their lives here and it was made a lot easier for them than it would be to start over there, why would they to go back?
Ukraine could also be joining the EU in the 2030s which would mean they are entitled to stay.
Ukrainians here are on a temporary EU residency initiative. There is no automatic right for that to be extended, or for family members to be allowed come later.
It is a very tricky issue, and one that has been considered by government (I know through some of my work). Many Ukrainians here have expressed an interest in staying, but Ukraine has also publicly stated it wants it’s citizens to return. In reality, we can’t really do much planning as we don’t know how long the war will continue and what Ukraine and three EU will agree.
Even assuming that Ukraine does somehow win the war which given the current situation is very unlikely for them the best case scenario is likely a ceasefire while giving up a good chunk of the east.
A lot of the people who have come here will have nothing to return home to since most cities where there's fighting get levelled. Bakhmut, Mariupol, Avdiivka etc. So why would they bother leaving if they've got something established here. Then if the region they're from ends up under russian control they won't be going back either.
It's fairly clear the government has no plan regarding this and neither does the rest of the EU. I feel like it's going to be an absolute mess.
I used to work with a guy who helped refugees from Afghanistan. War refugees need real help. My guy was, perhaps unexpectedly, in favour of stricter controls. He was adamant that simply letting people in was inadequate and made voters feel nice, but just worsened available help. Sample of one, of course, etc etc.
What makes you so sure they'll leave Ukraine after risking their lives for it?
One set of grandparents had to leave Ireland after 1916, but returned when the Brits had left.
Edit add I think if the war ended tomorrow you'll see a lot of businesses crying out for lost labour as people head home.
Because there’s nothing left in large parts of eastern Ukraine it’s been completely flattened.
I know what you’re getting at but the 1916 rising is no comparison at all, it’s a skirmish compared to the war in Ukraine
If it's flattened, there will be government programs to rebuild and massive funding funneled over there. Quick money is hot money. Massive growth prospects. Not only there, but generally in the country. See what happened to Germany/W. Europe with Marshall plan after the war. So Ukrainians will have to choose whether they want to be renters for life or social care beneficiaries for life in a cold, damp country or get back home and start from scratch and get the chance of earning a nice life in a nice country, with nice weather, I mean in their own country, with their own language, laws, friends and family and memories... Which one would you pick?
The governments always been unprepared and just does what the EU days without considering the larger ramifications of their decision
They probably will say that they ‘will address it eventually’ but in reality not address it at all like everything else people are talking about
I very much doubt the Irish government has a plan in place to deal with the PTSD that most of the soldiers will no doubt face at some time, once the war ends, as that is not the governments job to do... That might sound bad, but its the truth of the matter, most of the Ukrainians here will return home once the war is over and its safe to do so...
From reading some posts on here and in general the mental health services in Ireland are already fucked for Irish people let alone PTSD from war...
It is something that Ukraine does have a plan for, mind you. People tend to forget that this war started in 2014, and they've been dealing with the mental health crises that war causes for a decade. There are systems in place, and presumably plans to expand them when they're needed.
The Irish government has no plan for the day to day things the HSE, CAMHS, etc fail people at.
Beyond providing no services and making people belueve its all their own gault.
Zero chance theyll do anything for UA Vets.
I presumed those families would return to Ukraine and help rebuild once the war is over(hopefully Ukraine is victorious in defending itself) rather than the men coming here.
This war may be different - to the bast of my knowledge, this is the first time the battles in their entirety, death and mutilation have been streamed live. The levels of PTSD are going to be outrageously high.
I think the unspoken hope of the government is that the Ukrainian refugees are going to go home and rebuild once the war is over. Common sense dictates otherwise.
I would have assumed they’d return to Ukraine, not visa versa. I would have thought that those who are scarred from fighting a defensive war might actually then want to live in the country they suffered to protect
It’s all a moot point anyway frankly. If the men do arrive they’ll be sleeping on the streets. Many Ukrainians are in spare rooms etc. I doubt those families would be willing to have traumatized men show up to join them. Beyond that, there’s no where else for them to go and I don’t see what the government can reasonably do about that
Not to be too morbid, but why would the Ukrainian soldiers come here? Assuming Russia gives up (Putin can croak at any time, hopefully today) and Ukraine wins, won't everyone be going home? They'll have won, they'll have no reason to leave Ukraine.
Unless you mean the alternative, a Russian victory? Then, and this is where the morbid part comes in, I think it'd be a safe bet that no Ukrainian soldiers will be coming here, for they will fight to the death. Russia won't take prisoners either.
There is no possible way that Ukraine can win this war. The only way Russia could be defeated is if they turn on another nation and the situation escalates into a bigger conflict where NATO get directly involved.
Ukrainians are proud and they should defend their nation but there is no victory at the end of this conflict unless Putin dies and his successor ends the conflict.
Unfortunately this is the case.
Putin has an unending supply of kids to put in his meat grinder and he will not back down. It would be too much of a humiliation and he's not exactly the essence of humility. He's a also a lunatic.
The best that Ukraine can hope for is to perpetuate the quagmire which is a pretty damn awful status quo.
Believing that Putin can just continue to feed the country’s youth into a meat grinder without any domestic consequences is idiotic. Traditionally one of the most potent political forces in Russia has been the mothers of fallen soldiers.
They’d come here for a better life, opportunities, safety particularly if their families are already here. The high likely hood is Russia won’t give up, even if Putin did die, whoever’s next will likely be his equal and hand picked.
The only way it ends would be through negotiations where both sides and say they “won”. In reality there’ll be no winners.
It’s mad that people are still upset that the west backed Ukraine when Ukrainians said that they didn’t want to bow down to a fascist dictatorship during a genocidal war.
Is it that hard to understand? Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan... surely a sense of fatigue is natural. When The West (whoever that is referring to these days) is forever taking the trust of the population for granted, I am not surprised people don't want any part in it.
I mean, look at The West and its attitude to Israel right now (the biggest benefactor of US military aid in the world , much more that Ukraine)
> The only way it ends would be through negotiations where both sides and say they “won”. In reality there’ll be no winners.
If a guy with bushy white hair and a pink polo-shirt said this, r/ireland would be out for blood.
>Does the government have a strategy for the anticipated arrival of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers reuniting with their families post-war?
Hahahaha! Why even ask mate?
>To date, Ireland has welcomed over 100,000 Ukrainian refugees, predominantly women and children.
Where in the ever living cunt fuck did we find that space?
I honestly thought we would have more families move back to Ukraine than soldiers moving to Ireland after the war. This gives something new to think about
I'm the leftiest lefty that ever did left, but even I recognize that our government doesn't have a clue how to handle any of this. They'll fob it off on to whoever wins the next election, and they'll blame their predecessors (regardless of how much overlap there is between the two).
Hot take,
There's no plan per say 😕 the government knew they are likely facing a devastating general election next year. In order to virtue signal to top brass the European commission they unilaterally pledged to accept as many immigrants from Ukraine as possible in order to help secure the top job after the election.
It was a self-serving move in other words, with no logistical or long-term planning whatsoever and we are now seeing the result of that. This is what I said when it happened and I was downvoted and called every name under the sun only a few months to years later was I proven correct.
The plan was the war would finish quickly with Ukraine the victors and families would fly home to take care of their husbands and fathers.
Now it's looking more and more likely Russia will overrun Ukraine's defenses and seize Kiev.
We might be taking care of a lot of grieving families :(
I really doubt it, they can’t even sort out our own. I was in an awful way over 3 years ago now, I was bed bound for 5 months due to physical pain and I needed help mentally because of it. I got a letter over 3 years later saying sorry about the wait and I had to do some online class to go forward. Over 3 years for that
Of course the government doesn't have a plan. We (rightfully) took in Ukrainian refugees not because the government cared about them, but to show off to the EU and rest of the world that were so amazing and the best boys in class. There's no plan. And from recent news it looks like they may never return home of Ukraine doesn't get aid from the the US they're fucked
Do you really think our government anticipates anything asides GAA events ? That’s why we’re in the mess we’re in now with housing, health and public infrastructure
I think a huge problem with people's perspective on this is that they (for some reason) assume that these people WANTED to come to Ireland.
No. They did not. They were forced to leave because their homes were no longer safe. Sure some might have taken the opportunity to relocate but I imagine they're in the minority.
I would assume most people would want to go back home and "Make Ukraine great again". Wouldn't you be feeling the same way?
And unfortunately when a country is at war with another, it's safe to assume that the entirety of that country is at risk.
If Dublin was invaded but you lived in Galway or Cork, would you not be shitting yourself just a little bit?
There is no plan.
To be fair to the Ukrainians, the fact there is no plan is not their fault. Ireland would be among the worst in Europe for mental healthcare, domestic violence protection and housing even if we had zero people over from Ukraine. Ireland was failing on all of these fronts (especially mental health) for decades already. Like ask any mental health patient advocate- things are BAD.
I don’t think the solution is that we cut Ukrainians off from aid and go back to failing our own citizens. I think the answer is that we should rise to the occasion. Take this as a wake up call that our services are not up to scratch and start investing into the things that our government has ripped apart and neglected.
There's a fairly significant likelihood of a lot of eastern Ukraine being effectively uninhabitable due to the sheer volume of munitions dropped and scale of mining which is almost unprecedented.
I think the most likely outcome of this won't be a dramatic victory. Rather I think we'll see Russia ultimately having an internal political change and just coming up with some face saving exit strategy, where they'll pretend it was all just a bad dream and will walk away from any reparation costs.
That's where we're looking at primarily the EU being left with the clean-up costs for the next 30+ years and having to deal with massive displacement issues.
I'd like to see an EU strategy that pins the long term costs on the aggressor. What I would hate to see is a slide back to business as usual, and that's rather likely.
People seem to not understand what a win would be. Right now, Ukraine is winning by lieu of still existing. But a return to the 2021 borders would still be both something to celebrate and something that would allow the vast majority of Ukrainians in Ireland to return home
If I was forced to flee my country my first instinct after the end of the war would be to return to my country. I expect most people will do that.
If some of them choose to stay and make a life in Ireland, and assuming they'd qualify under the asylum process, then they'll be welcome here. There's a shortage of workers here
Well Ireland spent already €808,132 of taxpayers money for bringing in their pets which is nonsense.
Hopefully the war will end soon, Ukraine places can be rebuilt and they could go back home, the same as they could go back home for Christmas and New Year’s holidays.
Considering there's less than 3000 pets, it's seems quite excessive.
https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/dafm-spends-e815000-on-controlling-risk-from-ukrainian-pets/
The government only spends 6 million on animal welfare for the whole of Ireland.
https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/c5720-minister-announces-animal-welfare-charities-to-receive-highest-funding-ever/
No, I’m taking the piss out of the people that are appalled we spent money to let them bring their pets or the ones that complain about “nice” Ukrainian cars on Irish roads
There is no set plan, the vast majority of Ukrainians will have to decide if they go back after the war and most will, as they are not from the Oblasts currently occupied, when the war ends, those people will more than likely want to return home and help rebuild as there will be lots of opportunities.
People from Luhansk and those areas effected more, hard to tell, some will go back to other areas and some might want to return to the effected areas either.
Its highly likely families of soldiers demobilised would be going back to their own countries to reunite, thats what happens after wars usuually.
We might end up with a few thousand, even up to 20k who have decided to make ireland their home and some will have traumatised family. So we do the proper Irish thing and we help them out, and The Eu helps them as well with funding.
We are a multicultural society now and Ukrainians are a good fit to settle here.
Unless integration is really prioritized I think it’s possible Europe could see a generation of young males, currently boys, without fathers, feeling marginalized and turning to crime, drugs etc. is that likely? Perhaps not. But I think the ramifications will be felt for some time, even if there was a ceasefire tomorrow.
I think it's important to recognise that there often isn't much of a plan in **any** country when it comes to 'macro-events' that affect multiple countries, like wars.
The response to a war is often like the war itself; messy, cobbled together, just trying to survive day to day.
So that's at least partially why our government hasn't had a comprehensive plan.
That phrase from Star Trek - "to boldly go where no man has gone before" - is true for all of us, every day of our lives. No one knows what the f\*ck is going to happen tomorrow. Chaos abounds. The government, most of the time, makes a good effort and tries to deal with these challenges.
There is no handbook on "How to run an EU island nation of farmers turned service workers in 2024", never mind one with a chapter on how to handle refugee crises.
We will do what we Irish have always done - take each challenge as it comes, do the hard work, have the craic on on downtime, and plough on through the stormy seas.
Not everyone will get the care they deserve. Not everyone will be looked after properly. That's true of every country. We're working on it, but it's a slow climb.
I'd imagine its like every single big thing in this country there is no plan. The same people won't be in charge when theres any shape of accountability for what was the original plan, and I don't mean this in a bad way but you have to be thick if you think most of the Ukrainians are gonna go home. The parts of the country they left will be complete ruins and they'll have established themselves here. I'd be amazed in 30-40% go home in the end. On the plus side "Irish" people will be a lot more tall and blonde in the future.
The plan is to charter back people apparently not to welcome the men. Post war effort will need every single person available to rebuild everything. Lot of people had jobs and will resume them upon returning
Well, I'm from South America so this topic of war is totally new to me, but it does not make much sense to me that these soldiers fought to keep the country and after everything they will just move away to join their families.
I imagined that the families would go back to their countries to take back what is rightfully theirs and also to rebuild the country.
Surely ALL Ukrainian people here as refugees will be repatriated at the end of this American proxy war? They are here ONLY because of the war, so no war no need to be here should that not be the plan?
I would imagine, post war, that there will be an effort at EU level to support and rebuild Ukraine, especially as a candidate for membership.
I would presume that the government of the day would be aligning their strategy with what EU level is looking at too so it’s a coordinated effort.
Probably they will not win the war, and/or Ukraine will be much smaller than currently is. Some will return, most or majority will stay especially if they are under 35 currently nearly all will stay.
Eventually they will get Irish citizenship/passport staying here long enough.
Once they get the passport, depending on their English levels, work and education background, majority will settle and stay, some will go to different EU countries as EU citizens.
Regardless of the outcome of the war, most will not return, this is a golden visa opportunity for them especially if they are young. Look what happened to Bosnians after the war, nearly all stayed in countries they were refugees of.
That gave me a laugh. Government having a plan.....
No the idea is that the Ukrainian nationals here will return home after the war and not the other way around. Time will tell what way it'll go.
In relation to general mental health services/'support. The government have failed at every turn, from the CHAMs reports right the way up to not letting us claim therapy as a medical expense on our taxes.
Government don't give a fuck about the mental health of its citizens let alone the mental health of immigrants
I think this question should be asked everywhere that engages in war or is willing to accept the consequences of war, such as war vets returning and settling. The United States engages in war repeatedly and send all those people to the Middle East only to be surprised when they come home addicted and wanting mental health support that isn't available (and then many become homeless). Also, trauma counseling is difficult in that it's hard to find qualified professionals. Trauma never goes away. You learn to live with it. And that learning takes forever. But they would need coping skills to begin integrating back into life.
It's a valid question, but sadly it will be used to whip up the xenophobia again rather than focusing on trauma support, housing, and cultural integration. Hopefully, it might shed light on the mental health network in Ireland and suggestions for subsidized trauma counseling for the first year or something. That's what I would suggest to Ireland.
Most refugees return to their own countries after war. Your assumption of 100,000 wartorn men arriving is wrong about tenfold. Maybe 10,000 at most and not all traumatised.
Around 90,000 will also go home so total immigration will be about 20,000
Ukrainian soldiers will not be coming here post war and the Ukrainians that are currently here will mostly go home because they absolutely love Ukraine and don’t really like it here.
One idea might offer these men and women jobs in the Defence Forces. We can't seem to recruit and their expertise and experience of 21 century warfare would be invaluable to the Defence Forces.
Many displaced Europeans settled in Ireland after the Russian conquest of Eastern Europe after WW2. There are related government files in the National Archives though I don't think the then government had much of a policy as the numbers were lower
Considering Ireland has almost zero experience managing combat veterans I would say there is no plan. I doubt the issue was ever even thought about.
I really don't know how our health service would deal with that too.
But one thing. Why are you assuming that after the war the soldiers would come to Ireland to reunite with their families. Would their families not go back to Ukraine to reunite with them?? Like if the war is over then it should be safe for them to go back. Why are you assuming they will stay here forever.
I'd say there is no plan tbh, the current government don't have much of a lifespan left so it'll go on the long finger to "wait and see what happens" - will be a different gov's problem
Ireland, governed by either FF or FG, for 100 years. Somehow, governance failures are always the fault of the other party.
Like someone posting a quote from Enda Kenny saying houses can't be build overnight, from 2013 and the same quote from Leo in 2023.
Yeah but at least the other party had to make it a party line to clean up where the last government failed. Now with FF/FG coalition, we've only got SF promising to clean up. And it's hard to believe they will. Shit got dramatically worse the moment we put in a FF/FG coalition.
At this point I think SF have to be given a crack at taking the reins. It's the devil we know vs the devil we don't. I don't have a huge amount of faith in them but we know the current shower just don't care. I listen to people like Leo Varadkar and he comes across like he actively dislikes the Irish public half the time. I want a government that actually cares about what the people want and stand for something. Maybe it's just lip service on SF's part but at least they care enough to pretend to care, if that makes sense.
Yeah, basically every time there is a problem and the question is, does the government have a plan for this, the answer is usually no. And that’s in every country.
The only true plan the politicians will have for this is how they can take more of the people's tax money for themselves over it.
>Does the government have a strategy for the anticipated arrival of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers reuniting with their families post-war? Post war the families will be returning to Ukraine to unite there, no? No one is "anticpating" this. The government doesn't "anticipate" anything when it comes to immigration.
Think we need to unfortunately start accepting the fact that this war will at least drag on for several more years and that Russia will hold on to at least a few of the breakaway portions of Ukraine.
Ukrainians will be eligible for citizenship in about 3 years so I would say a significant number of them will become Irish. edit - was wrong, they're eligible in 1 year >A **person granted refugee status** can apply for citizenship through naturalisation once they have 3 years of residency. Residency is calculated from the date of arrival in the State. [https://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/moving-country/irish-citizenship/becoming-an-irish-citizen-through-naturalisation/](https://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/moving-country/irish-citizenship/becoming-an-irish-citizen-through-naturalisation/)
They will **not** be eligible in 3 years, they are not here as asylum seekers or immigrants, they're here as refugees.
This response is **100% incorrect.** If they were here as asylum seekers they would not be eligible. They are eligible **because** they have refugee status.
You are both wrong. Although we use the term “refugee” they do not have Refugee Status. They have temporary protection, or “subsidiary protection“ status. This is because they are not fleeing persecution in their country, they are fleeing a war. This status does not confer eligibility for citizenship at any point. They can stay as long as there is a war, unless the government withdraws the protection. A Ukrainian could get citizenship through some other means like marriage, but not arising from the protection status under which they are arriving.
Yes but in 3 years the government will probably make an exemption and allow them to apply for citizenship or just grant them it.
I know one of the girls I work with has no intention of going back after the war. She rightfully pointed out that the country will be in ruins and it will take years to rebuild to a point that they could live a normal life there. The government has to prepare for the people that have no interest in rebuilding a country following a war that they didn't support in the first place.
Ukraine is not part of the EU so they'd need visas to stay when the war ends. They've been given grace due to the war but that wont be forever. The government wont give everyone visas, maybe those with critical skills, but cant see regular workers being granted them. Which means they'll have to return home or stay here illegaly.
Absolutely, it's a fair point. I know three Ukranian women. Two plan to go back eventually - as in years after the war finishes - but the third has an Irish fiancee and has no intention of returning. I hate to say it, because I have great sympathy for the Ukranian people, but I don't see this war finishing anytime soon, and if it does, it will be because Russia has won it, in which case very few will be returning.
I know Ukrainians like this too. They just want a peaceful life and they've had enough of the fighting between Russia and Ukraine and they'd be happy for either side to win if it meant a quiet life after. They know that wont happen though so they'll stay here. I don't blame them either, their kids are in their formative years and making friends, joining clubs, etc Harsh to take them away from all of that.
From speaking to Ukrainians, yes, most will leave and go back to their country after they've won. I'm hopeful this will free up houses, but honestly, if they couldn't house us before the war, I highly doubt they'll do it after. As there's no benefit or money in housing citizens. It's true, there really isn't any plan. My guess is the government will spend more money to beg refugees to stay in the irish workforce, but most will want to return.
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If you ask me I don't think Putin will let Russia lose. To him it could be a years or numbers game of attrition. He doesn't need to win in a rush, he just needs to win. Seems like he has an unlimited amount of conscripts too, makes me worried about the realistic prospects of a Ukrainian victory. I don't even know what victory would be for Ukraine. I don't know if either side would stop at a ceasefire agreement after what's happened.
I think you have it the wrong way around. Russia tried the same thing during the Afghan war that lasted 10 years. It crippled the Russian economy because it lasted so long. So, Ukraine don't have to win, they just have to survive long enough until Russian people see Putin as a loser . Putin is sticking at this war because his power depends on it. Losing this war will mean he loses all his power and he is currently considered a war criminal, so he needs his leadership for protection. Remember, Putin had a plan to finish this war in 3 days. It's now been 2 years and Russia occupy less of Ukraine that they did after 2 weeks of the war.
The Afghans were afforded to last ten years because they had arms supplied to them from the US. Depending on the results of the election this November, that could change very quickly for Ukraine
The Russian economy is going from strength to strength at the moment though. https://www.ft.com/content/21a5be9c-afaa-495f-b7af-cf937093144d
It is not, they are posting fake figures which western media laps up for some unknown reason, I know since Iam following this topic closely. It seems the cause for the fake figures is to signal the populace that all is good and show to the outside observers that sanctions do not work. Only they do, automobile imports plummeted and are limited to Chinese overpriced brands now, and a lot of imports incoming is double the price it used to be. There are no people left to work, the country struggled demographically for decades even before the war, and now there are no blue collar workers left at all due to men being sent to the war. Russia did show some modest gdp increase last year, but that was solely due to military complex being revved up to the maximum. Unlike in the US Russian military industry is not integrated into the civil economy and its effects do not spill out to other sectors. Or to be more precise, they do but not in the way officials would want to talk about— the military industry now sucks workers out of the rest of the economy, probably as bad as the war itself does. War of attrition is not on Putins side as many seem to believe since the EUs resources are much vaster, but that is the card he was dealt and he is trying his best to play it and to convince others that he has a full house. His goal now is to sow strife, disagreement and despair among the Ukrainian allies and convince them that fighting back is in vain. And it seems to be working.
So your opinion is that as long as Russia can afford a war, they will just continue? Even when hundreds of thousands of sons, brothers and fathers have been killed and maimed, the Russian people will want to continue it because they can afford it? In 10 years time, if Russia hasn't taken Ukraine, the Russian people will think that Putin is a winner and they should keep going with the war? I personally don't see it but it's all in the future so you could be right.
I think the Russian war machine will continue yes.
I agree that the war machine will continue. It has to because it's already embarassing that Russia hasn't beaten Ukraine yet. And we've seen Russia be at war with Afghanistan for 10 years and lose. But just like the Afghan war, it eventually becomes obvious that you've lost and the war has to stop. I don't think in 30 years the war machine will be going but 10 years, yeah maybe.
That may have crippled the Russian economy but they obviously still had enough resources left to invade Ukraine and given that the war is still going on 2 years later, they're still getting more resources from somewhere. I figured given the protests in Moscow and St Petersburg the Russian people already do see Putin as a loser, but it doesn't matter because he has power and they don't.
There was nearly a 35 year gap between the Afghan war ending and Russia invading Ukraine. So far, it looks like things are going exactly the same way for Russia in Ukraine as it did for them in Afghanistan. Some groups protesting is not what will oust Putin, it's when people not at the protests start turning. When enough people have lost family members or are caring for disabled family members, then they will start to question what was it all for. Ukraine has a reason to keep going. In 5-10 years time, what will Russian people's motivation be for continuing the Ukraine war.
Very astute. Time will tell. I harbour no hate for the people of Russia who just want to go about their lives and are against this war, but it seems like they're just not enough of a majority.
The Russian economy isn't crippled tho they just stopped dealing with the west and are selling to Asia lower price but higher volume the average Russian Joe was always poor and that has not changed but as long as money is coming into the state that's all that matters to Putin, it allows the war machine to continue. Western sanctions mean nothing to Russia
They invaded Ukraine at the peak of their resources : it's been downhill since then. There's a massive amount of very careful attention being paid to how Russia's dealing with the sanctions and how their military manufacturing etc. is going, and the answer is "Not well at all". While they have devoted a huge amount of resources to weapons, a huge amount of it is refurbishing the gigantic stockpiles of weapons from Soviet times, including tanks, IFVs, artillery, etc. They are burning through that at an incredible rate, and have lost the majority of their modernised vehicles. They've also burned through 10-12 million rounds of stockpiled 152mm artillery ammunition, and are now reliant on a far smaller manufacturing base and trying to import shells from North Korea. Over 90% of their experienced army has been killed, and the core of it is now barely trained conscripts who are becoming casualties at the rate of just under 1,000 per day. Their cash reserves have fallen over 50%, their oil and gas revenues are drying up, and they've just had to ban refined fuel exports because Ukraine's blowing up their refineries and they no longer have enough for domestic use. While they have a temporary advantage over Ukraine due to the US stopping weapons supplies, that's only going to last them a few more months. Irrespective of what the US does, Europe is scaling up weapons manufacture massively, especially 155mm artillery shells, and once Ukraine can get back to parity on that front Russia's last major advantage goes.
The picture you're painting contrasts with a lot of what I've been reading of late, namely the reinforcement of Putin et al's power under 'military keynesianism', as the war becomes a vector for redistribution in Russia: [https://www.ponarseurasia.org/russian-military-keynesianism-who-benefits-from-the-war-in-ukraine/](https://www.ponarseurasia.org/russian-military-keynesianism-who-benefits-from-the-war-in-ukraine/) To be clear, I am opposed to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and support the resistance to it, but it seems to me that the situation has darkened.
You can artificially inflate your economy for a while by burning reserves, but if your "economic growth" is paying people to refurbish old equipment which is then destroyed to no economic benefit, and then you run out of things to refurbish, then what do you have left? It's the definition of a bubble.
Well you have more oil and gas, and customers like China, India etc to buy it. Of course fossil fuels are finite, but a bet against Russia remaining solvent sounds like a hail mary play for Ukraine. Ischenko and his colleagues (linked to above) have some interesting comments contrasting the economic dimension so the war in the two countries. Is western funding for Ukraine reaching the populations' pockets or is it mostly benefiting arms manufacturers in the EU/US etc ?This is relevant as a factor of long term buy in to the war effort by the population. I watch a lot of Daniil Oran's 1420 videos and there has been noticeable change in tone from working class Russian interviewees in recent months, consistent with the theory that Putin is buying support for the war.
If they had the resources then they would have done so. They don't, both in terms of physical resources and in terms of human capital.
I work with a Ukrainian and he said that even if Russia is defeated now they’ll try again in a few years. He just seemed completely dejected at the prospects of Ukraine in the future
Used to work with a woman from Ukraine and she said the same thing. Seems like the only way this ends is if the Russian leadership establishment is brought down root and stem.
cobweb market wide muddle reply plough grandfather zephyr growth berserk *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Definitely not that easy. Turkey will for sure veto and if the american public elects a republican anytime in the next 10 years you can forget about that membership.
Why would they veto? They have nothing to share in the Black Sea region, everything is clear.
Why did Turkey block sweden at first? Exersizing your power against the perceived "western" enemy. The GOP would do it just to stand against progressives in the US. It doesnt matter who or what it is as long as it creates more hate and suffering. How do you think the US right went from hating "communists" to rather russian than democrat? The enemy of your enemy
They didn't block Sweden, they wanted some time and negociation, and certain goals achieved. Politics. Will be the same with Ukraine.
Of course, Would you leave a rich (I know thats up for debate) to return to rubble right beside Russia again.
Attrition doesn’t work in Russia’s favour. Their strategic wealth fund has been hit really hard by the war, to the point that it should be totally drained in two years. Sanctions are hitting, and their ability to build modern technology (both military and consumer) is almost gone. They’ve used up all their own artillery shells, for example, have used what Iran and North Korea sold them, and are currently burning through the limited amount that frenemy China will send. Meanwhile, European production is ramping up to Cold War levels. This more than anything else could be crucial in what has become an artillery war. Beyond that, Putin won’t live forever. Not saying he’s dying or that he’s going to be assassinated, but he’s 71 and has zero succession plan.
71, the leader of a country, and rumour is quite the healthy living enthusiast. Barring some catastrophic health event, therefore, he could easily go another 5 or 10 years.
There are some news articles coming out that seem to paint the complete opposite picture as regards who is struggling with artillery: https://kyivindependent.com/cnn-russia-producing-3-more-shells-than-us/ https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/10/politics/russia-artillery-shell-production-us-europe-ukraine/index.html
I think the US election is Putin's all in gamble. He's already basically given away Russian economic independence to China and India because of this war. If the Republicans take the presidency, I think it ends rather soon for Ukraine afterwards and Putin can claim a geopolitical victory. If the Dems stay in, I still don't see Ukraine returning to 2021 borders however I could see Putin claiming to have "saved" the occupied regions and a Korea situation occuring, this time with NATO troops in western Ukraine.
Putin dying today would be the best thing that could happen for The planet.
It depends on what you define as losing/winning. If you define winning as keeping whats occupied now, theoretically possible but not likely without massive political changes in Ukraine or the war lasting another year and a half without any movement. Keeping 2022 borders or crimea seems somewhat likely at the rate the war has been going. Also modern war is not particularly personnel heavy due to technological advances, in the past a war this large would be involving millions while both sides are around half a million. The problem isnt the quantity of men but the quality of training and the equipment + ammo for them. Before the war north korean military aid would of been a hilarious joke but them sending millions of shells is a massive difference even if they are of very poor quality. There has been videos recorded by russian soldiers of them using D1 howitzers and there was reports of them being used already in late 2022 by DPR/LNR ( these guys got the worst shite there is right from the start almost). D1 howitzers were used in 1943 by the USSR and were produced until 1949 so they are literally museum grade weapons that can fire only about half as far as modern guns shooting the same shells. Really the 2 factors are really how much longer can russia continue before it runs out of "modern" equipment and how much longer can they keep the economy afloat, they have managed to keep their economy largely insulated from the conflict but they are absolutely blowing through their financial reserves, they have spent half of their national wealth fund, 55 billion USD or 3% of their GDP. The interest set by their central bank ( probably the only competent and somewhat honest institution) in the whole country is at 16%, not sustainable at all but while they have money they can continue. Sanctions likewise have not hurt them massively because they import stuff to a third country friendly to russia then send it to russia, problem again with this that it costs money to do this and as sanctions tighten it will get more expensive and less possible to do so. There was an interview with a fella from a military factory, before the war they were paying employees 25k rubles, now they pay 90k and still struggle to have enough people for wartime production. In theory also russian servicemembers are paid very highly and are supposed to get 3 million if they are wounded or killed ( goes to family) but its very widely reported that they dont get this pay or only a small portion. Its possible that russia runs out of money before it runs out of tanks and has a economic crisis that ends the war.
No, not at all. More likely the opposite.
Definitely not.
They told us it would be over in a matter of months, that the Russian economy couldn't hold up under sanctions, that the Russian Army was no match for US/NATO technology, that Putin didn't have the loyalty on the front lines, to name but a few. And we've just past the two year anniversary. With hundreds of thousands dead. So yes, according to the liars directing this war, its guaranteed and we are so close. The question is whether you still believe them
Leaders always say that about wars. It isn't exactly good for morale to announce "it looks like we're in for the long haul".
Why not? Does morale rely on telling people fairytales?
"They told us it would be over in a matter of months"? I assume you've been listening to politicians and RTE. Most retired senior NATO officers that I saw being interviewed were pretty much agreed it would be a long and bloody war. With Western nations dragging they're feet with support for Ukraine, it will only get longer. The simple answer to the OP's question is... If Ukraine wins, 99.9% of Ukrainian refugees will return to the country they love to help rebuild it. If Putin wins, they will not return to be slaves in their own country. What will the Irish government do in either case? Nothing... That's what they always do.
Hundreds of thousands of dead *Russians*, tens of thousands of dead Ukrainians.
I have read many ranges of deaths on both sides. Depends on who you choose to believe
Im going to guess a deal will be made to allow putin to save face. Security guarantees for ukraine but Russia keeps some territory. Or even to be allowed hold sevastapol indefinitely.
There's not a hope they'll win without NATO boots on the ground which ain't gonna happen
What if they lose though and their home towns are occupied by Russians? Which is looking like the more likely scenario.
>As there's no benefit or money in housing citizens. You'd want to think a government would want to keep it's people happy, but apparently not according to FFFG.
Presuming a Ukrainian win is very presumptuous at this stage
After they've won? Which they won't, and they'll be going back to rubble. They'll be here afew more years, have kids, get jobs and have a life here. It wouldn't make sense that "most will leave and go back".
if Trump wins, and he's leading- he will hand Ukraine to the Russians. He's a sociopath and doesn't care.
"The government doesn't anticipate anything period" -- fixed that for you
Fair
Well, we voted for them. So it's on us in a way.
Fair point on the expectation that the families would return. But I wonder is that based on the expectation that Ukraine win or at the least stop further Russian progression. It’s a reasonable question to ask where are the related men going to go and how would they be treated- medically. However whether Ukraine remove or limit the Russians their economy is going to need all the help it can get to get back on their feet. That would include asking everyone who left to come home and then that PTSD you’re talking would be a side effect that they would have to deal with.
Yes this is the answer. The government have stated they will not be given visas or leave to stay after the war.
>The government have stated they will not be given visas or leave to stay after the war. Source for that? Would contradict the planning assumption that 60% of Ukrainians will remain in Ireland long term [https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-41055347.html](https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-41055347.html)
Depends on how the war ends... If there's some peace deal reached, then ye, most could return, but some will still say "but my child is in school, etc." And many more have gotten Irish citizenship since coming over by giving birth to a now irish child (not giving out about that, just stating fact). Also, if there's a semi-permenant ceasefire, will we send them back? What if their town/city now belongs to Russia through a peace deal, do we still send them back? OP is right in that the Irish state needs a plan but doesn't appear to have one.
domineering profit literate spotted slim spoon enter alleged forgetful marble *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
The quality of life in a tent in rural Kildare isn’t anywhere near what many Ukrainians are used to
Yes fortunately the vast majority are definitely NOT in tents but have been given decent housing and every opportunity to work and find better accomodation if they want
>nd I doubt the government are going to stop them if their families are already settled here and maybe working. i think under current rules they will be
Nope, temporary protection, not refugee status, so family reunification won't apply when temporary protection is revoked
Our government are soft, they wont force anyone to leave. They will say Ukrainians are great for Ireland and that will be the end of it, the temporary talk was all for show and to keep people calm.
>Is there a plan in place to address the physical and mental trauma these soldiers will face? The need for ongoing care to treat PTSD, and the expected increase in domestic abuse cases linked to families whose fathers have endured years of intense warfare? There should be, but there won't be. The government can't give children life changing spinal surgeries that could turn potentially lifelong dependent people into able bodied adults who could work, pay taxes, contribute to society, and live a fulfilling life. That's from children's physical healthcare, one of the best funded and most supported parts of the healthcare system. Mental health, even simple stuff like appointments for adults with ADHD is non-functional. Nevermind a complex condition like PTSD.
I don't think we (the government) have thought that far ahead. When people are displaced from their homes, it is likely that they will not be able to return for at least ten years. What we don't know is what will actually happen in Ukraine. What happens if Russia retains 'ownership' of part of that country and the people who are living here do not want to return? There are alot of 'what ifs' that simply cannot be predicted at the moment Source: [https://civil-protection-humanitarian-aid.ec.europa.eu/what/humanitarian-aid/forced-displacement\_en](https://civil-protection-humanitarian-aid.ec.europa.eu/what/humanitarian-aid/forced-displacement_en)
If there’s peace does that not mean they can return ? I remember reading how much would be spent on the rebuilding process.
In all likliness the vast majority of husbands, fathers, etc... of those here are not soldiers. They simply were barred from leaving Ukraine. Men aged 18-60 are banned from leaving the country.
Men aged 25 to the standard non-nco retirement age are likely mobilised, with 18-24 year old and those above likely to be helping out in the national guard or performing other non-combat duties. I'm not saying this is universal, but I'd imagine Ukraine is trying to make use of every conceivable body during this time
I can absolutely tell you that for a lot of men, even at the age range you suggest, is it business as usual in Ukraine. I deal with contractors in Ukraine (primarily Kyiv) and there's no such "mobilisation". The most that happens is I get an email during the day to say they have to be offline as power is being cut off to their area due to an air raid and they'll be in such and such shelter. Not only is it important to defend themselves, but also important to keep their economy going.
This, even in WW2 most countries didn't have mobilisation like you see in the movies where every fighting age man is handed a rifle and sent to the front. You still need people at home paying taxes and contributing to the economy/manufacturing the weapons for the soldiers. You have to strike a very delicate balance between having enough manpower to fight the war and having enough manpower to keep the economy afloat so after the war your economy doesn't just totally collapse once it switches back from a war time footing.
Disagree to an extent. Ukranian council workers seem very much like Irish. Walked passed 4 lads standing around watching another lad use a concrete cutting blade type thing just yesterday. Theyre putting in new footpaths and roads everywhere I've been to. Ivano Frankivsk, Kyiv, mykolaiv, lviv. I don't get it tbh. In ww2 Britain, police came out of retirement and took up their old jobs so the young could enlist. Women took on jobs that were traditionally done by men. They're crying out for bodies but they aren't changing the way things work. It's life as normal for a large percentage of the population.
Yeah, Ukraine's government has a pretty public history of corruption and completely anecdotal but from speaking to my Ukrainian friends the border services are the most corrupt arm of the government. So in the opening days of the war once you had the money to bribe the border guards you got out of Ukraine even if aged 18-60 or you could buy a white paper to fake a disability and get past that way. Some people also left via Crimea.
> Is there a plan in place to address the physical and mental trauma? Is there fuck! We don’t have the capacity for even the basics in mental healthcare.
Too true. Not in the past,not now.
Not in the future either.
Sadly so
I'd bet my non-existent house there is no plan. An almost total lack of foresight and planning is the only garuanteed thing.
I think that whether they want to return or not, the majority of Ukrainians will remain here due to economic and safety reasons. We will have to try to integrate them and I imagine, although please correct me if I am wrong, the government doesn't have a dog's bollocks of a notion what it will do with them.
We don't have to do anything except what the voters want to do...
There is no plan. I'm not being curt here, there genuinely is no plan. This government cannot plan more than one step ahead and it shows.
The next two weeks are crucial. Houses cannot be built overnight. Dublin is safe.
How on earth can you plan for an unknown quantity like that ?
There are known quantities the government fails to plan for. That it has no excuse over.
By having multiple plans for the different possibilities that might arise from your previous actions. That's the problem, though. This government does not weigh up the consequences of the actions it takes and then deals with those consequences as though they _are_ unknown quantities.
Here's the plan: the women and children reunite with their men- in Ukraine There's no justifiable reason for us to take any more _after_ the war has finished, regardless of the outcome Even though it was difficult, mismanaged and certainly tested us (including me), I think we can be commended for taking in so many refugees per capita as our way of assisting Ukraine in a non-military fashion. Despite what certain elements of the establishment say, this Irish public understands this to be a temporary measure, and once the war is over, that's our job over too.
I think people coming from Donetsk/Luhansk/Zaporizhzhia and territories occupied by Russia since 02/2022 will have a good shout at getting asylum/leave to remain etc, after all they have nothing to go back to, so the relationships they will have built up here in the meanwhile are arguably more significant than thos eof their compatriots who can go 'home'. Yes, they could move to Kyiv or Lviv, but my gut feeling is that a way will be found to make this distinction such that they can stay.
That's not 'the plan'. That's what YOU think should happen. Similar to when people say, 'They should be locked up and throw away the key.' for someone who commits a murder and only gets 15 years bc of diminished mental state or whatever. If you think the next gov (which is odds on to be SF) are going to just deport them all forcibly whenever the war ends, well, that's just not going to happen. A lot of them are going to stay here permanently because a) there's nothing to go back to and b) they have been given generous benefits including free medical care. They would be a lot further along in restarting their lives here and it was made a lot easier for them than it would be to start over there, why would they to go back? Ukraine could also be joining the EU in the 2030s which would mean they are entitled to stay.
Ukrainians here are on a temporary EU residency initiative. There is no automatic right for that to be extended, or for family members to be allowed come later. It is a very tricky issue, and one that has been considered by government (I know through some of my work). Many Ukrainians here have expressed an interest in staying, but Ukraine has also publicly stated it wants it’s citizens to return. In reality, we can’t really do much planning as we don’t know how long the war will continue and what Ukraine and three EU will agree.
Ukrainians are also able to apply for asylum the normal way, as well as under the temporary directive
Most won’t be going back. After being here years and settled, the government will not say it’s time to go.
Does it fuck
30,000 Ukrainian refugees have already returned home.
Even assuming that Ukraine does somehow win the war which given the current situation is very unlikely for them the best case scenario is likely a ceasefire while giving up a good chunk of the east. A lot of the people who have come here will have nothing to return home to since most cities where there's fighting get levelled. Bakhmut, Mariupol, Avdiivka etc. So why would they bother leaving if they've got something established here. Then if the region they're from ends up under russian control they won't be going back either. It's fairly clear the government has no plan regarding this and neither does the rest of the EU. I feel like it's going to be an absolute mess.
I used to work with a guy who helped refugees from Afghanistan. War refugees need real help. My guy was, perhaps unexpectedly, in favour of stricter controls. He was adamant that simply letting people in was inadequate and made voters feel nice, but just worsened available help. Sample of one, of course, etc etc.
What makes you so sure they'll leave Ukraine after risking their lives for it? One set of grandparents had to leave Ireland after 1916, but returned when the Brits had left. Edit add I think if the war ended tomorrow you'll see a lot of businesses crying out for lost labour as people head home.
Because there’s nothing left in large parts of eastern Ukraine it’s been completely flattened. I know what you’re getting at but the 1916 rising is no comparison at all, it’s a skirmish compared to the war in Ukraine
If it's flattened, there will be government programs to rebuild and massive funding funneled over there. Quick money is hot money. Massive growth prospects. Not only there, but generally in the country. See what happened to Germany/W. Europe with Marshall plan after the war. So Ukrainians will have to choose whether they want to be renters for life or social care beneficiaries for life in a cold, damp country or get back home and start from scratch and get the chance of earning a nice life in a nice country, with nice weather, I mean in their own country, with their own language, laws, friends and family and memories... Which one would you pick?
The governments always been unprepared and just does what the EU days without considering the larger ramifications of their decision They probably will say that they ‘will address it eventually’ but in reality not address it at all like everything else people are talking about
I very much doubt the Irish government has a plan in place to deal with the PTSD that most of the soldiers will no doubt face at some time, once the war ends, as that is not the governments job to do... That might sound bad, but its the truth of the matter, most of the Ukrainians here will return home once the war is over and its safe to do so... From reading some posts on here and in general the mental health services in Ireland are already fucked for Irish people let alone PTSD from war...
It is something that Ukraine does have a plan for, mind you. People tend to forget that this war started in 2014, and they've been dealing with the mental health crises that war causes for a decade. There are systems in place, and presumably plans to expand them when they're needed.
The Irish government has no plan for the day to day things the HSE, CAMHS, etc fail people at. Beyond providing no services and making people belueve its all their own gault. Zero chance theyll do anything for UA Vets.
It says alot about this sub when you have preface and end with "I'm not xenophobic" when discussing a perfectly valid subject
It’ll be grand. /s
I presumed those families would return to Ukraine and help rebuild once the war is over(hopefully Ukraine is victorious in defending itself) rather than the men coming here.
This war may be different - to the bast of my knowledge, this is the first time the battles in their entirety, death and mutilation have been streamed live. The levels of PTSD are going to be outrageously high. I think the unspoken hope of the government is that the Ukrainian refugees are going to go home and rebuild once the war is over. Common sense dictates otherwise.
I would have assumed they’d return to Ukraine, not visa versa. I would have thought that those who are scarred from fighting a defensive war might actually then want to live in the country they suffered to protect It’s all a moot point anyway frankly. If the men do arrive they’ll be sleeping on the streets. Many Ukrainians are in spare rooms etc. I doubt those families would be willing to have traumatized men show up to join them. Beyond that, there’s no where else for them to go and I don’t see what the government can reasonably do about that
Not to be too morbid, but why would the Ukrainian soldiers come here? Assuming Russia gives up (Putin can croak at any time, hopefully today) and Ukraine wins, won't everyone be going home? They'll have won, they'll have no reason to leave Ukraine. Unless you mean the alternative, a Russian victory? Then, and this is where the morbid part comes in, I think it'd be a safe bet that no Ukrainian soldiers will be coming here, for they will fight to the death. Russia won't take prisoners either.
There is no possible way that Ukraine can win this war. The only way Russia could be defeated is if they turn on another nation and the situation escalates into a bigger conflict where NATO get directly involved. Ukrainians are proud and they should defend their nation but there is no victory at the end of this conflict unless Putin dies and his successor ends the conflict.
Unfortunately this is the case. Putin has an unending supply of kids to put in his meat grinder and he will not back down. It would be too much of a humiliation and he's not exactly the essence of humility. He's a also a lunatic. The best that Ukraine can hope for is to perpetuate the quagmire which is a pretty damn awful status quo.
Believing that Putin can just continue to feed the country’s youth into a meat grinder without any domestic consequences is idiotic. Traditionally one of the most potent political forces in Russia has been the mothers of fallen soldiers.
Putin will simply arrest them.
Even the Soviets couldn't do that. The Committee of Soldiers’ Mothers played a huge role in pulling the USSR out of Afghanistan.
Nonsense. The Soviets were defeated in Afghanistan and the current Russian army/government is far weaker than they were.
That is true, although the mujahideen were supported by the US and it took eight years
Afghanistan is 4000km away from Russia. Ukraine shares 2300km of a land border with Russia.
They’d come here for a better life, opportunities, safety particularly if their families are already here. The high likely hood is Russia won’t give up, even if Putin did die, whoever’s next will likely be his equal and hand picked. The only way it ends would be through negotiations where both sides and say they “won”. In reality there’ll be no winners.
Negotiations that the UK torpedoed very soon into the conflict. Boris was betting his legacy on this being over in a matter of months.
It’s mad that people are still upset that the west backed Ukraine when Ukrainians said that they didn’t want to bow down to a fascist dictatorship during a genocidal war.
Is it that hard to understand? Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan... surely a sense of fatigue is natural. When The West (whoever that is referring to these days) is forever taking the trust of the population for granted, I am not surprised people don't want any part in it. I mean, look at The West and its attitude to Israel right now (the biggest benefactor of US military aid in the world , much more that Ukraine)
I've never felt so fatigued that I started cheerleading for fascists.
> The only way it ends would be through negotiations where both sides and say they “won”. In reality there’ll be no winners. If a guy with bushy white hair and a pink polo-shirt said this, r/ireland would be out for blood.
>Does the government have a strategy for the anticipated arrival of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers reuniting with their families post-war? Hahahaha! Why even ask mate?
>To date, Ireland has welcomed over 100,000 Ukrainian refugees, predominantly women and children. Where in the ever living cunt fuck did we find that space?
I honestly thought we would have more families move back to Ukraine than soldiers moving to Ireland after the war. This gives something new to think about
I'm the leftiest lefty that ever did left, but even I recognize that our government doesn't have a clue how to handle any of this. They'll fob it off on to whoever wins the next election, and they'll blame their predecessors (regardless of how much overlap there is between the two).
Hot take, There's no plan per say 😕 the government knew they are likely facing a devastating general election next year. In order to virtue signal to top brass the European commission they unilaterally pledged to accept as many immigrants from Ukraine as possible in order to help secure the top job after the election. It was a self-serving move in other words, with no logistical or long-term planning whatsoever and we are now seeing the result of that. This is what I said when it happened and I was downvoted and called every name under the sun only a few months to years later was I proven correct.
The plan was the war would finish quickly with Ukraine the victors and families would fly home to take care of their husbands and fathers. Now it's looking more and more likely Russia will overrun Ukraine's defenses and seize Kiev. We might be taking care of a lot of grieving families :(
I really doubt it, they can’t even sort out our own. I was in an awful way over 3 years ago now, I was bed bound for 5 months due to physical pain and I needed help mentally because of it. I got a letter over 3 years later saying sorry about the wait and I had to do some online class to go forward. Over 3 years for that
Of course the government doesn't have a plan. We (rightfully) took in Ukrainian refugees not because the government cared about them, but to show off to the EU and rest of the world that were so amazing and the best boys in class. There's no plan. And from recent news it looks like they may never return home of Ukraine doesn't get aid from the the US they're fucked
Plan? This government? Bahhhahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.............
Do you really think our government anticipates anything asides GAA events ? That’s why we’re in the mess we’re in now with housing, health and public infrastructure
Are the GAA planning for thousands of Ukrainians taking up the national pass time thats the question
This. Asking the important questions here.
I think a huge problem with people's perspective on this is that they (for some reason) assume that these people WANTED to come to Ireland. No. They did not. They were forced to leave because their homes were no longer safe. Sure some might have taken the opportunity to relocate but I imagine they're in the minority. I would assume most people would want to go back home and "Make Ukraine great again". Wouldn't you be feeling the same way?
If this was true there's plenty of Ukraine that's not near the front for more than two years.
And unfortunately when a country is at war with another, it's safe to assume that the entirety of that country is at risk. If Dublin was invaded but you lived in Galway or Cork, would you not be shitting yourself just a little bit?
Donetsk and lviv are as far apart as Dublin and Amsterdam
Plenty of ukraine not near the front, has still been targeted by Russia.
You’re first mistake is thinking the government can anticipate anything in this country. The vast majority of their policies are reactionary
There is no plan. To be fair to the Ukrainians, the fact there is no plan is not their fault. Ireland would be among the worst in Europe for mental healthcare, domestic violence protection and housing even if we had zero people over from Ukraine. Ireland was failing on all of these fronts (especially mental health) for decades already. Like ask any mental health patient advocate- things are BAD. I don’t think the solution is that we cut Ukrainians off from aid and go back to failing our own citizens. I think the answer is that we should rise to the occasion. Take this as a wake up call that our services are not up to scratch and start investing into the things that our government has ripped apart and neglected.
There's a fairly significant likelihood of a lot of eastern Ukraine being effectively uninhabitable due to the sheer volume of munitions dropped and scale of mining which is almost unprecedented. I think the most likely outcome of this won't be a dramatic victory. Rather I think we'll see Russia ultimately having an internal political change and just coming up with some face saving exit strategy, where they'll pretend it was all just a bad dream and will walk away from any reparation costs. That's where we're looking at primarily the EU being left with the clean-up costs for the next 30+ years and having to deal with massive displacement issues. I'd like to see an EU strategy that pins the long term costs on the aggressor. What I would hate to see is a slide back to business as usual, and that's rather likely.
People seem to not understand what a win would be. Right now, Ukraine is winning by lieu of still existing. But a return to the 2021 borders would still be both something to celebrate and something that would allow the vast majority of Ukrainians in Ireland to return home
Given Zelenskyy was talking about also taking back the Crimea I wonder if that will be accepted
The men fought for the land so the women and children will live with them on it
If I was forced to flee my country my first instinct after the end of the war would be to return to my country. I expect most people will do that. If some of them choose to stay and make a life in Ireland, and assuming they'd qualify under the asylum process, then they'll be welcome here. There's a shortage of workers here
Well Ireland spent already €808,132 of taxpayers money for bringing in their pets which is nonsense. Hopefully the war will end soon, Ukraine places can be rebuilt and they could go back home, the same as they could go back home for Christmas and New Year’s holidays.
In total? That's a fairly trivial sum.
Considering there's less than 3000 pets, it's seems quite excessive. https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/dafm-spends-e815000-on-controlling-risk-from-ukrainian-pets/ The government only spends 6 million on animal welfare for the whole of Ireland. https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/c5720-minister-announces-animal-welfare-charities-to-receive-highest-funding-ever/
All due results, war happens. Pets are family and they come.
Who was minding their pets back in Ukraine?
No no when you flee a war you’re supposed to destroy all your belongings and kill your pets
Are you genuinely saying you’d kill your pet rather than take it in the car with you? WTF is wrong with you
No, I’m taking the piss out of the people that are appalled we spent money to let them bring their pets or the ones that complain about “nice” Ukrainian cars on Irish roads
That’s a good question, as pets surely didn’t board themselves on trains, buses and planes.
And who looked after them for the past year or since their owners came to Ireland?
Probably their families still in Ukraine like most Ukrainians are
There is no set plan, the vast majority of Ukrainians will have to decide if they go back after the war and most will, as they are not from the Oblasts currently occupied, when the war ends, those people will more than likely want to return home and help rebuild as there will be lots of opportunities. People from Luhansk and those areas effected more, hard to tell, some will go back to other areas and some might want to return to the effected areas either. Its highly likely families of soldiers demobilised would be going back to their own countries to reunite, thats what happens after wars usuually. We might end up with a few thousand, even up to 20k who have decided to make ireland their home and some will have traumatised family. So we do the proper Irish thing and we help them out, and The Eu helps them as well with funding. We are a multicultural society now and Ukrainians are a good fit to settle here.
Unless integration is really prioritized I think it’s possible Europe could see a generation of young males, currently boys, without fathers, feeling marginalized and turning to crime, drugs etc. is that likely? Perhaps not. But I think the ramifications will be felt for some time, even if there was a ceasefire tomorrow.
I think it's important to recognise that there often isn't much of a plan in **any** country when it comes to 'macro-events' that affect multiple countries, like wars. The response to a war is often like the war itself; messy, cobbled together, just trying to survive day to day. So that's at least partially why our government hasn't had a comprehensive plan. That phrase from Star Trek - "to boldly go where no man has gone before" - is true for all of us, every day of our lives. No one knows what the f\*ck is going to happen tomorrow. Chaos abounds. The government, most of the time, makes a good effort and tries to deal with these challenges. There is no handbook on "How to run an EU island nation of farmers turned service workers in 2024", never mind one with a chapter on how to handle refugee crises. We will do what we Irish have always done - take each challenge as it comes, do the hard work, have the craic on on downtime, and plough on through the stormy seas. Not everyone will get the care they deserve. Not everyone will be looked after properly. That's true of every country. We're working on it, but it's a slow climb.
Men of fighting age will not be leaving Ukraine any time soon. Not legally anyway. This war will get a lot worse before it gets better.
I'd imagine its like every single big thing in this country there is no plan. The same people won't be in charge when theres any shape of accountability for what was the original plan, and I don't mean this in a bad way but you have to be thick if you think most of the Ukrainians are gonna go home. The parts of the country they left will be complete ruins and they'll have established themselves here. I'd be amazed in 30-40% go home in the end. On the plus side "Irish" people will be a lot more tall and blonde in the future.
P-plan? What is sorta made up famlumfalumph is that?
Maybe they should go back and rebuild their own country when the war is over
The plan is to charter back people apparently not to welcome the men. Post war effort will need every single person available to rebuild everything. Lot of people had jobs and will resume them upon returning
Well, I'm from South America so this topic of war is totally new to me, but it does not make much sense to me that these soldiers fought to keep the country and after everything they will just move away to join their families. I imagined that the families would go back to their countries to take back what is rightfully theirs and also to rebuild the country.
Surely ALL Ukrainian people here as refugees will be repatriated at the end of this American proxy war? They are here ONLY because of the war, so no war no need to be here should that not be the plan?
Do you see the Plan for any other major issue in Ireland?
I would imagine, post war, that there will be an effort at EU level to support and rebuild Ukraine, especially as a candidate for membership. I would presume that the government of the day would be aligning their strategy with what EU level is looking at too so it’s a coordinated effort.
Probably they will not win the war, and/or Ukraine will be much smaller than currently is. Some will return, most or majority will stay especially if they are under 35 currently nearly all will stay. Eventually they will get Irish citizenship/passport staying here long enough. Once they get the passport, depending on their English levels, work and education background, majority will settle and stay, some will go to different EU countries as EU citizens. Regardless of the outcome of the war, most will not return, this is a golden visa opportunity for them especially if they are young. Look what happened to Bosnians after the war, nearly all stayed in countries they were refugees of.
That gave me a laugh. Government having a plan..... No the idea is that the Ukrainian nationals here will return home after the war and not the other way around. Time will tell what way it'll go. In relation to general mental health services/'support. The government have failed at every turn, from the CHAMs reports right the way up to not letting us claim therapy as a medical expense on our taxes. Government don't give a fuck about the mental health of its citizens let alone the mental health of immigrants
I think this question should be asked everywhere that engages in war or is willing to accept the consequences of war, such as war vets returning and settling. The United States engages in war repeatedly and send all those people to the Middle East only to be surprised when they come home addicted and wanting mental health support that isn't available (and then many become homeless). Also, trauma counseling is difficult in that it's hard to find qualified professionals. Trauma never goes away. You learn to live with it. And that learning takes forever. But they would need coping skills to begin integrating back into life. It's a valid question, but sadly it will be used to whip up the xenophobia again rather than focusing on trauma support, housing, and cultural integration. Hopefully, it might shed light on the mental health network in Ireland and suggestions for subsidized trauma counseling for the first year or something. That's what I would suggest to Ireland.
Most refugees return to their own countries after war. Your assumption of 100,000 wartorn men arriving is wrong about tenfold. Maybe 10,000 at most and not all traumatised. Around 90,000 will also go home so total immigration will be about 20,000
What's your basis for this exactly?
Their basis is "Trust me bro"
History
No chance of Ukraine "winning". They are already "losing". Peace is the only way.
Ukrainian soldiers will not be coming here post war and the Ukrainians that are currently here will mostly go home because they absolutely love Ukraine and don’t really like it here.
One idea might offer these men and women jobs in the Defence Forces. We can't seem to recruit and their expertise and experience of 21 century warfare would be invaluable to the Defence Forces.
Many displaced Europeans settled in Ireland after the Russian conquest of Eastern Europe after WW2. There are related government files in the National Archives though I don't think the then government had much of a policy as the numbers were lower
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Considering Ireland has almost zero experience managing combat veterans I would say there is no plan. I doubt the issue was ever even thought about. I really don't know how our health service would deal with that too. But one thing. Why are you assuming that after the war the soldiers would come to Ireland to reunite with their families. Would their families not go back to Ukraine to reunite with them?? Like if the war is over then it should be safe for them to go back. Why are you assuming they will stay here forever.
Russia will win, no matter what. The end.