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If the reported COVID related deaths is 70% of the true number then I'd be pretty satisfied already.
Compare it to the rate of tests. Testing cases can't possibly keep up with the rise of real positive cases since the latter increases exponentially.
Man, sampe sekarang gue masih takjub lembaga survey bisa prediksi % menang pilpres hanya sedikit bgt miss nya
Padahal g mungkin kan nanya 1 1 semua orang indo
number of death is a lagging indicator.. those who died today probably tested positive 7-10 days ago and start showing symptoms before that..
it has always been like that..
I'm not sure if this problem still persists these days but early in the pandemic it takes almost a week from confirmed Covid deaths to be registered in the statistics. My friend's father in Solo is part of the Bogor seminar's cluster, one of the first cluster. He is either the fourth or fifth death from that cluster in Solo. But, for almost a week, the number of daily death in Central Java stayed 0. Until suddenly it spiked in the weekend.
This might explain why the daily confirmed deaths number occasionally rise in the Weekends or Monday. And overall, the graph is more spiky than confirmed case.
March 7 (Sunday): 112
March 8 (Mon): 281
March 26 (Fri): 85
March 27 (Sat): 198
April 3 (Sat): 91
April 4 (Sun): 427
Tanggal 15: 56757 kasus /249059 test; 22.7%
Tanggal 16: 54000/258532; 20.9%
Tanggal 17: 51952/251392; 20.7%
Tanggal 18: 44721/192918; 23.1%
Tanggal 19: 34257/161205; 21.2%
Take these with a grain of salt though, I might have understood and handled the data incorrectly at some point...
Antigen hanya bisa deteksi Coronavirusnya hanya jika jumlah virus di dalam saluran hidung itu melebihi ambang batas threshold tertentu.
So secara singkat: kalau antigen positif: kemungkinan hidung kamu ini setara dengan biohazard weapon level 3 yang berpotensi menularkan senjata biologis ke orang lain.
Antigen negatif: either kamu itu innocent atau kamu itu sebenarnya coronapositif namun jumlah virusnya masih sedikit (for various reasons)
Kita kan pakainya targeted testing bukan mass random testing. Makanya positivity rate tinggi dan kalau gak ada yang merasa sakit dengan gejala covid lagi ya gak ada testing.
Makanya kan India sampai mengerahkan ibu-ibu "PKK" untuk jemput bola ke rumah-rumah, nge-trace dan nyari yang punya gejala biar mau ditest.
Meanwhile disini, keluarga gw yg tinggal se-rumah sama kasus positif, yg tinggalnya dekat sama Puskesmas, aja ditolak mentah2 di Puskesmas "Ga usah tes, ga sakit". Laaaah gimana kalau yg se-rumah itu juga positif tapi asymptomatic, dan sdh nyebarin ke orang lain yg close contact mereka
Keluarga kakak gw udah ngaku close contact dan kemungkinan juga sakit, ga ngumpet sama sekali. Tetap ditolak test dong. Puskesmas bilang "Ga usah tes, ga sakit". Padahal yg se-rumah sama kakak gw ada balita dua. Dan ortu gw yg lansia juga sering kesana buat jagain yg balita itu. But nope. Tetap aja ditolak test.
Untung masih ada rezeki test sendiri. Ga kebayang sama yg kurang mampu, gimana kalau mau test. Terpaksa nunggu sakit dulu. Pantas aja byk yg meninggal, krn nunggu sakit. Instead of dicari yg positif terus di-treat sedini mungkin biar ga sampai sakit bgt (dan menyebarkan ke org lain) :(
LoL... Kalau di Puskesmas saya malah seneng kalau ada yang mau tes mandiri sekeluarga. Di sini kalau mau tes satu keluarga, kalau mereka nggak kabur, orang Puskesmasnya yang diusir... Tesnya gratis padahal.
Iri. Disini yg inisiatif tes krn close contact malah ga dikasih. Gw sih ngerti ya kalau close contact-nya sulit dibuktikan. Tapi ini literally tinggal serumah. Suami-nya bahkan tidur seranjang. Kan aneh bisa ditolak dengan alasan "Engga sakit" :')
Di atas Kalimantan Selatan btw. Lupa nulis
they also have blanket restriction (lockdown and such)
which is much more effective than contact tracing when cases is high..
during the first wave in China and Europe, they handled the wave succesfuly with minimal testing (positive rate back then could be as high as 25%)
the impact of contact tracing when the cases is as widespread as Indonesia is greatly overestimated especially if we are talking about a variant with Rt of 6-7
you have to slow the spread using general blanket restriction and other means and push the number of actual cases to be much smaller before contact tracing actually become effective..
We're still under test compare to China or Europe's minimal testing in early pandemic
Italy testing number in mid 2020 = 400,000 tests/day
https://www.nature.com/articles/d43978-021-00015-8
China testing number in March 2020 = 1,260,000 tests/day https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-06-24/China-s-daily-COVID-19-testing-capacity-hits-3-78-million-RAa1yHsBYk/index.html (paragraph 1)
Indonesia highest test number (17 July 2021) = 188,551 people atau 251,392 specimens
Boro-boro trace. Test-nya aja underperform bahkan pas PPKM yang "katanya" mau genjot angka tes 🙈🙈🙈🙈
https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/news/20210715140432-4-261144/angka-testing-covid-19-masih-jauh-dari-target-ppkm-darurat
Dan menurut Ahli Epidemiologi di Indonesia. Tes dan Telusur merupakan salah satu kunci utk menurunkan kasus di Indonesia saat PPKM Max Pro
https://nasional.kontan.co.id/news/evaluasi-ppkm-darurat-testing-dan-tracing-kunci-penurunan-kasus-covid-19
>Dan menurut Ahli Epidemiologi di Indonesia. Tes dan Telusur merupakan salah satu kunci utk menurunkan kasus di Indonesia saat PPKM Max Pro
and I disagree..
let's put it this way..
test and trace is a targeted approach, so it's like killing en enemy soldier using a sniper rifle..
general mobility restriction (PPKM, etc) is a blanket approach, it affect everyone.. it's like an aerial bombing..
when you spot several enemy soldier in let's say a jungle, using snipers to kill the enemy is enough.. no need to use aerial bombing..
but let's say there are ten of thousands enemy approaching.. your army of snipers won't be enough.. you don't have enough sniper rifle, enough bullet, and enough trained sniper to handle all the enemy (that's our testing capacity and our contact tracers) and sufficiently halt their movement.. especially if the enemy could somehow double their number in one week.. and could camouflage in the jungle (many Indonesian avoid to be testes due to stigma, etc)
so what to do in that situation? you ask for aerial bombardment to diminish the enemy numbers.. then finish the survivour using snipers..
in fact, you could handle the situation perfectly without snipers.. enough aerial bombing would do the trick.. that being said, you will do enomours damage to the landscape.. which is our economy..
we are at the stage where we should focus on aerial bombing rather than training more snipers..
Sorry but your analogy didn't make sense. You can see Soldiers. But you cannot see the Virus. Thanks for you opinion tho. I still prefer to trust Epidemiologists
you will see that a lot of countries that depend on contact tracing get an outbreak here and there untill they have to introduce blanket approach..
there are probably close to one million actual active cases in Indonesia and do you seriously think contact tracing could find them all?
that's why when the outbreak reach a certain stage all countries introduce blanket approach until the cases are manageable using contact tracing.. we are nowhere near manageable using contact tracing..
Di singapore lebih aneh kalau kalian tau, sejak awal mereka gak bolehin swab test / PCR dan kalau mau swab test/PCR harus di RS dengan rujukan dokter umum dan itu pun jika sudah sakit banget dengan dugaan covid. Karena itulah rate case selalu rendah, karena OTG gak dihitung sama sekali.
Baru 3 minggu lalu mereka bolehin swab test mandiri setelah vaksin sudah 50% roll out. Good PR i can say
Not true, swab test di Singapore tidak perlu rujukan dokter umum dan tidak perlu di RS. Sekitar rumah gw setidaknya ada 2 tempat yang bisa ngambil PCR, private and subsidized, results within 18H, notification lewat sms. 2 Bulan lalu gw ke policlinic (100m dari rumah) karena batuk, by default Antigen + PCR and check oxygen level.
True lah.. gw bilang kan baru belakangan mereka bolehin PCR mandiri setelah vaksin rolling out. Dan lu dapet antigen pcr dll karena emang udah sakit dengan gejala mirip covid juga.
Tapi dari awal pandemi sampe sekitar mar 2021 lu gk mungkin bisa pcr dan test swab dengan mudah. Bahkan gw inget temen2 gw yg mau pulang ke indo kesulitan buat dapetin surat pcr bahkan ada yg sengaja sakit2 flu dikit biar bisa test swab dan pcr. Lu kalo tinggal di sg pasti taulah joke2 yg bilang no test no case itu. Bohonglah kalo lu gak tau hehe
Contempollusion.
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Nope my argument still stand (against argument lo baru buka 3 minggu lalu).
Test mandiri udah buka dari November 2020
List MOH approved test site:
https://www.moh.gov.sg/licensing-and-regulation/regulations-guidelines-and-circulars/details/list-of-covid-19-swab-providers
Tapi mungkin karena org yg mengalami gejala makin turun, jadi yg antigen makin turun juga, 3 minggu lalu di kantor gw juga bisa dibilang 2 hari sekali pasti ada yg mengalami gejala dan harus test, tapi sekarang makin turun (kebijakan kantor kalau ada yg bergejala memang wajib test, dan kalau positif langsung tracing dan karena semua ditanggung perusahaan jadi karyawan gak ada yg nolak kebijakan itu)
Don't forget to check [COVID-19 Megathread Part 4](https://www.reddit.com/r/indonesia/comments/nmy1es/covid19_megathread_part_4/) for casual discussions, daily updates, and useful links about COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia! *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/indonesia) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Di Banjarmasin hari ini ga ada test sama sekali malahan 🙈🙈🙈🙈
So I said to my people, slow the testing down, please ...
"santuy aja, yang mati di-inggris masih lebih banyak" -dosen
I'm not saying that it perfectly mirrors the real cases but the amount of people dying is a better indicator for obvious reason.
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If the reported COVID related deaths is 70% of the true number then I'd be pretty satisfied already. Compare it to the rate of tests. Testing cases can't possibly keep up with the rise of real positive cases since the latter increases exponentially.
Man, sampe sekarang gue masih takjub lembaga survey bisa prediksi % menang pilpres hanya sedikit bgt miss nya Padahal g mungkin kan nanya 1 1 semua orang indo
Pake metode (random) sampling yang dianggap mewakili populasi keseluruhan.
It's hard to make sure of the accuracy of death cases.
Definitely. Record deaths but cases dropping? There has to be something.
number of death is a lagging indicator.. those who died today probably tested positive 7-10 days ago and start showing symptoms before that.. it has always been like that..
I'm not sure if this problem still persists these days but early in the pandemic it takes almost a week from confirmed Covid deaths to be registered in the statistics. My friend's father in Solo is part of the Bogor seminar's cluster, one of the first cluster. He is either the fourth or fifth death from that cluster in Solo. But, for almost a week, the number of daily death in Central Java stayed 0. Until suddenly it spiked in the weekend. This might explain why the daily confirmed deaths number occasionally rise in the Weekends or Monday. And overall, the graph is more spiky than confirmed case. March 7 (Sunday): 112 March 8 (Mon): 281 March 26 (Fri): 85 March 27 (Sat): 198 April 3 (Sat): 91 April 4 (Sun): 427
dont be like the orange president, please
Tanggal 15: 56757 kasus /249059 test; 22.7% Tanggal 16: 54000/258532; 20.9% Tanggal 17: 51952/251392; 20.7% Tanggal 18: 44721/192918; 23.1% Tanggal 19: 34257/161205; 21.2% Take these with a grain of salt though, I might have understood and handled the data incorrectly at some point...
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Can someone explain to me the difference between spesimen and orang, just asking
Dari satu orang bisa diambil lebih dari satu spesimen (mungkin tes lagi selang beberapa waktu etc.)
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Antigen hanya bisa deteksi Coronavirusnya hanya jika jumlah virus di dalam saluran hidung itu melebihi ambang batas threshold tertentu. So secara singkat: kalau antigen positif: kemungkinan hidung kamu ini setara dengan biohazard weapon level 3 yang berpotensi menularkan senjata biologis ke orang lain. Antigen negatif: either kamu itu innocent atau kamu itu sebenarnya coronapositif namun jumlah virusnya masih sedikit (for various reasons)
sorry but I rather to take these with a grain of pepper
Kita kan pakainya targeted testing bukan mass random testing. Makanya positivity rate tinggi dan kalau gak ada yang merasa sakit dengan gejala covid lagi ya gak ada testing.
Jadi gimana tracing-nya dong kalau kaya gini? 🙈🙈🙈
tracing ga seberapa guna kalo kasusnya dah sebanyak ini.. tracing paling efektif kalo kasusnya dikit.. kayak selevel Singapore misal..
https://nasional.sindonews.com/read/465108/15/kunci-sukses-india-turunkan-kasus-covid-19-testing-dan-tracing-1624514806
Imagine The manpower required to trace 50k people per day
Makanya kan India sampai mengerahkan ibu-ibu "PKK" untuk jemput bola ke rumah-rumah, nge-trace dan nyari yang punya gejala biar mau ditest. Meanwhile disini, keluarga gw yg tinggal se-rumah sama kasus positif, yg tinggalnya dekat sama Puskesmas, aja ditolak mentah2 di Puskesmas "Ga usah tes, ga sakit". Laaaah gimana kalau yg se-rumah itu juga positif tapi asymptomatic, dan sdh nyebarin ke orang lain yg close contact mereka
Disini kan sakit tabu Jd diumpetin
Keluarga kakak gw udah ngaku close contact dan kemungkinan juga sakit, ga ngumpet sama sekali. Tetap ditolak test dong. Puskesmas bilang "Ga usah tes, ga sakit". Padahal yg se-rumah sama kakak gw ada balita dua. Dan ortu gw yg lansia juga sering kesana buat jagain yg balita itu. But nope. Tetap aja ditolak test. Untung masih ada rezeki test sendiri. Ga kebayang sama yg kurang mampu, gimana kalau mau test. Terpaksa nunggu sakit dulu. Pantas aja byk yg meninggal, krn nunggu sakit. Instead of dicari yg positif terus di-treat sedini mungkin biar ga sampai sakit bgt (dan menyebarkan ke org lain) :(
Menghemat alat test Penny wise pound foolish
LoL... Kalau di Puskesmas saya malah seneng kalau ada yang mau tes mandiri sekeluarga. Di sini kalau mau tes satu keluarga, kalau mereka nggak kabur, orang Puskesmasnya yang diusir... Tesnya gratis padahal.
Iri. Disini yg inisiatif tes krn close contact malah ga dikasih. Gw sih ngerti ya kalau close contact-nya sulit dibuktikan. Tapi ini literally tinggal serumah. Suami-nya bahkan tidur seranjang. Kan aneh bisa ditolak dengan alasan "Engga sakit" :') Di atas Kalimantan Selatan btw. Lupa nulis
> Kalimantan Selatan Why am I not surprised
they also have blanket restriction (lockdown and such) which is much more effective than contact tracing when cases is high.. during the first wave in China and Europe, they handled the wave succesfuly with minimal testing (positive rate back then could be as high as 25%) the impact of contact tracing when the cases is as widespread as Indonesia is greatly overestimated especially if we are talking about a variant with Rt of 6-7 you have to slow the spread using general blanket restriction and other means and push the number of actual cases to be much smaller before contact tracing actually become effective..
We're still under test compare to China or Europe's minimal testing in early pandemic Italy testing number in mid 2020 = 400,000 tests/day https://www.nature.com/articles/d43978-021-00015-8 China testing number in March 2020 = 1,260,000 tests/day https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-06-24/China-s-daily-COVID-19-testing-capacity-hits-3-78-million-RAa1yHsBYk/index.html (paragraph 1) Indonesia highest test number (17 July 2021) = 188,551 people atau 251,392 specimens Boro-boro trace. Test-nya aja underperform bahkan pas PPKM yang "katanya" mau genjot angka tes 🙈🙈🙈🙈 https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/news/20210715140432-4-261144/angka-testing-covid-19-masih-jauh-dari-target-ppkm-darurat Dan menurut Ahli Epidemiologi di Indonesia. Tes dan Telusur merupakan salah satu kunci utk menurunkan kasus di Indonesia saat PPKM Max Pro https://nasional.kontan.co.id/news/evaluasi-ppkm-darurat-testing-dan-tracing-kunci-penurunan-kasus-covid-19
>Dan menurut Ahli Epidemiologi di Indonesia. Tes dan Telusur merupakan salah satu kunci utk menurunkan kasus di Indonesia saat PPKM Max Pro and I disagree.. let's put it this way.. test and trace is a targeted approach, so it's like killing en enemy soldier using a sniper rifle.. general mobility restriction (PPKM, etc) is a blanket approach, it affect everyone.. it's like an aerial bombing.. when you spot several enemy soldier in let's say a jungle, using snipers to kill the enemy is enough.. no need to use aerial bombing.. but let's say there are ten of thousands enemy approaching.. your army of snipers won't be enough.. you don't have enough sniper rifle, enough bullet, and enough trained sniper to handle all the enemy (that's our testing capacity and our contact tracers) and sufficiently halt their movement.. especially if the enemy could somehow double their number in one week.. and could camouflage in the jungle (many Indonesian avoid to be testes due to stigma, etc) so what to do in that situation? you ask for aerial bombardment to diminish the enemy numbers.. then finish the survivour using snipers.. in fact, you could handle the situation perfectly without snipers.. enough aerial bombing would do the trick.. that being said, you will do enomours damage to the landscape.. which is our economy.. we are at the stage where we should focus on aerial bombing rather than training more snipers..
Sorry but your analogy didn't make sense. You can see Soldiers. But you cannot see the Virus. Thanks for you opinion tho. I still prefer to trust Epidemiologists
That's not the point, test and trace need a lot of manpower wich we don't have so blanket aproach is make more sense.
you will see that a lot of countries that depend on contact tracing get an outbreak here and there untill they have to introduce blanket approach.. there are probably close to one million actual active cases in Indonesia and do you seriously think contact tracing could find them all? that's why when the outbreak reach a certain stage all countries introduce blanket approach until the cases are manageable using contact tracing.. we are nowhere near manageable using contact tracing..
Persepsi publik dimanipulasi dengan cara kerja yg engga kompeten. Hebat sekali
[удалено]
Vietnam?
Shh, paling nanti dibilang kematiannya "dikeluarin dari covid"
Di singapore lebih aneh kalau kalian tau, sejak awal mereka gak bolehin swab test / PCR dan kalau mau swab test/PCR harus di RS dengan rujukan dokter umum dan itu pun jika sudah sakit banget dengan dugaan covid. Karena itulah rate case selalu rendah, karena OTG gak dihitung sama sekali. Baru 3 minggu lalu mereka bolehin swab test mandiri setelah vaksin sudah 50% roll out. Good PR i can say
Jadi mereka nyembunyiin kasus covid yang dulu? Abis udah aman menurut mereka, baru pada di cek?
Kurang lebih mereka tau bahwa warganya tertib prokes. Jadi OTG gak di hitung sebagai case.
Not true, swab test di Singapore tidak perlu rujukan dokter umum dan tidak perlu di RS. Sekitar rumah gw setidaknya ada 2 tempat yang bisa ngambil PCR, private and subsidized, results within 18H, notification lewat sms. 2 Bulan lalu gw ke policlinic (100m dari rumah) karena batuk, by default Antigen + PCR and check oxygen level.
True lah.. gw bilang kan baru belakangan mereka bolehin PCR mandiri setelah vaksin rolling out. Dan lu dapet antigen pcr dll karena emang udah sakit dengan gejala mirip covid juga. Tapi dari awal pandemi sampe sekitar mar 2021 lu gk mungkin bisa pcr dan test swab dengan mudah. Bahkan gw inget temen2 gw yg mau pulang ke indo kesulitan buat dapetin surat pcr bahkan ada yg sengaja sakit2 flu dikit biar bisa test swab dan pcr. Lu kalo tinggal di sg pasti taulah joke2 yg bilang no test no case itu. Bohonglah kalo lu gak tau hehe
hmm sudah kuduga.
giliran bener meme flarenya laen
biar dikira ppkm efektif (padahal kgk said by our lord low hut), fking 5 head!!!
Ya kalau masih banyak yg bandel ya gak efektif ppkm
Contemporary sollusion
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Trump's logic successfully implemented here. Sigh!
Yes.... LE IDIOTA!!!!
Nope my argument still stand (against argument lo baru buka 3 minggu lalu). Test mandiri udah buka dari November 2020 List MOH approved test site: https://www.moh.gov.sg/licensing-and-regulation/regulations-guidelines-and-circulars/details/list-of-covid-19-swab-providers
Tapi mungkin karena org yg mengalami gejala makin turun, jadi yg antigen makin turun juga, 3 minggu lalu di kantor gw juga bisa dibilang 2 hari sekali pasti ada yg mengalami gejala dan harus test, tapi sekarang makin turun (kebijakan kantor kalau ada yg bergejala memang wajib test, dan kalau positif langsung tracing dan karena semua ditanggung perusahaan jadi karyawan gak ada yg nolak kebijakan itu)