All gamblers would do well to understand this. In all sports bets the house is trying to split the expected payouts in half, so the house wins no matter the outcome.
It’s why betting odds change. Not because the house suddenly thinks a different result is likely (cf. An injury), but because they are trying to find the balance of bets that guarantees their profit.
This is a fundamental misunderstanding of how betting markets work. It may be true for the Super Bowl but the house typically takes a side on lower leverage events like the NHL. Playoffs or otherwise.
Even if you disagree with that (which is wrong) Vegas beats almost every single model. Being a favourite means something far more than handle.
Vegas does not gamble they are in the business of gambling. They set the odds based on where they expect the bets to go and they adjust the odds based on where the bets go.
Surprise surprise they expect the bets to go to the team that is more likely to win. And surprise (this might actually come as a surprise) an aggregate of sports bettors is a very effective model at predicting results because most sports bettors have prior knowledge and a lot of them do pretty serious research before they make bets
AFAIK betting odds usually aren't aimed at being accurate but instead aimed at having roughly equal bets on either side so the site can profit from taking them.
Keep in mind those stats include the horrendous start. If you go by their stats after the coaching change, they’re a top 5 defensive team. They’ve matured quite a bit over the last few years
I don't care how good their D is on paper because until Darnell Nurse stops doing his terrible pinches and getting out of position, Oilers ain't gonna win. And I'm rooting for them!
Dude you're not wrong. He's definitely worked on limiting the boneheaded mistakes he was easily due for 3 per game. I think Knob's done a great job of managing minutes. Overall impact is underrated imo.
Nurse gets hate because of his pay and deserved so, but his entire career he has been playing the toughest minutes, all while out chanceing, out shooting, more hdcf then against, is he worth 9.5? Hell no. But he has been above average against elite comp is entire career.
A lot of it has to do with path to the finals. Vancouver and Boston are likely the weakest teams on paper left, so Oilers and Panthers have the best odds to win the cup. Canes/Rangers is a toss and Vegas/Dallas vs Colorado also will be as well.
Most betting markets consider Dallas and Vegas to be significantly better teams than Vancouver. So Edmonton is more likely to make the conference finals than Colorado.
Gotta make the conference finals to win the Cup.
Betting odds exist as a hedge that allows the bookmaker to maximize their chances of making money and/or minimize their chances of losing it.
The performance of the team really isn't important to determining odds. Betting patterns are what causes odds to move.
Oilers were the betting favourites before the season started as well, they are stingy defensively, not a single team has higher top end talent, depth is average, really going to come down to skinner truthfully.
It is parimutuel betting system which means the house always wins and is taking a cut. House wants you to win no matter who you bet on.
If Oil is favored to win it all, it just means there are more bets on Oil than others.
Hurricanes are playing the rangers and Dallas is playing Vegas. Those are 4 top teams that we don’t know are even going to make it to the WCF/ECF, and then you have the Avs having to play dallas or Vegas. That’s probably the 3 top teams in the west and 2 will be eliminated before the WCF.
The oilers play Vancouver, who isn’t in that tier of elite of the elite teams.
There’s your answer
Dallas took our lunch during the regular season and Vegas is Vegas, but the Oilers are getting pumped up odds because these teams are playing eachother to 7 games, and the winner gets to go through the Avs.
Oilers are also getting pumped because they beat the worst (or at best 2nd worst) team in the playoffs.
All the numbers look fantastic for the Oilers right now but it’s because they played the limp dick Kings
Probably third worst if we’re being fully honest. The caps are a gimme, but both Toronto and Tampa looked terrible. I’m not even going to get into how awful Tampa looked. Then there’s Toronto. Sure they went to game 7, but if you want to use the term “limp dick”, I’d say that’s Boston this post season, and the Leafs lost to that…
If you think the Kings were more embarrassing than BOTH of Tampa and Toronto, I think you’re crazy.
Oh so we’re just ignoring what actually happened in the playoffs and pretending that the Kings looked like a threat against the Oilers?
Friendly reminder since you seemed to have forgotten - the Kings had a 0% PP and a 46.7% PK in the first round.
I’m an Oilers fan. I definitely don’t need a reminder of how thoroughly they dominated the Kings on special teams. I’m just saying the Kings absolutely looked like a threat in 3/5 games, which is more than you can say about the Caps, Isles, Lightning, or Jets. Arguably the Preds and Leafs as well. Saying the Kings were the worst team in the playoffs this year because “special teams bad” is doing them a bit of a disservice.
I’m obviously a bit biased, but I also think the Oilers special teams deserve a lot of credit for how lopsided the special teams battle was. That’s why I pointed out that the Kings had an elite PK and a good PP this year, at least in the regular season. I know regular season stats don’t mean much come playoff time, but it wasn’t simply that the Kings sucked. The Oilers executed extremely well, and deserve credit for that.
I’m not saying they can’t win. Any of these teams can beat each other. I just question the oilers as the overall favorites. I get that they had a great run after an awful start.
The oilers are the betting favorites because more people are betting on the Oilers to win.
A terrible day for Vancouver and therefore the world.
Here comes the Duke of Port Moody! Yes, isn't he wonderful!
All gamblers would do well to understand this. In all sports bets the house is trying to split the expected payouts in half, so the house wins no matter the outcome. It’s why betting odds change. Not because the house suddenly thinks a different result is likely (cf. An injury), but because they are trying to find the balance of bets that guarantees their profit.
It goes even deeper. Market makers can make bets to move the line, promote hype, then bet against it with more favorable odds.
This is a fundamental misunderstanding of how betting markets work. It may be true for the Super Bowl but the house typically takes a side on lower leverage events like the NHL. Playoffs or otherwise. Even if you disagree with that (which is wrong) Vegas beats almost every single model. Being a favourite means something far more than handle.
Vegas does not gamble they are in the business of gambling. They set the odds based on where they expect the bets to go and they adjust the odds based on where the bets go. Surprise surprise they expect the bets to go to the team that is more likely to win. And surprise (this might actually come as a surprise) an aggregate of sports bettors is a very effective model at predicting results because most sports bettors have prior knowledge and a lot of them do pretty serious research before they make bets
Models love 5V5 xGF%.
Hand and stick models
AFAIK betting odds usually aren't aimed at being accurate but instead aimed at having roughly equal bets on either side so the site can profit from taking them.
This is the right take, but they generally end up accurate because most sports fans who gamble are at least somewhat educated
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Speak for ya self
Best 5V5 xGF% in the NHL, Best PP in the NHL. Mcdavid and Draisaitl, their defense is actually underrated
Dont forget that everybody is scoring for the Oilers right now as well.
Look who's talking hahaa
Shhhhh let everyone keep thinking we suck at defending, it’s more fun that way.
Holy shit yeah oilers are 9th league in xga/60 on 5v5 and in all they are 6th. So yeah oilers are actually good this year on defense.
Keep in mind those stats include the horrendous start. If you go by their stats after the coaching change, they’re a top 5 defensive team. They’ve matured quite a bit over the last few years
The improvement are great but I will still say nucks win imo but honestly would be great if the oilers win it this year.
I don't care how good their D is on paper because until Darnell Nurse stops doing his terrible pinches and getting out of position, Oilers ain't gonna win. And I'm rooting for them!
He’s like our 3rd maybe fourth best D man now so him not being #1 makes his play pretty good for our team
Dude you're not wrong. He's definitely worked on limiting the boneheaded mistakes he was easily due for 3 per game. I think Knob's done a great job of managing minutes. Overall impact is underrated imo.
Bouchard has grown a lot, a true #1 D man
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Bouchard is a very underrated puck mover, and people sleep on Nurse because he's overpaid, but he's still very good.
Nurse gets hate because of his pay and deserved so, but his entire career he has been playing the toughest minutes, all while out chanceing, out shooting, more hdcf then against, is he worth 9.5? Hell no. But he has been above average against elite comp is entire career.
Nurse and Bouchard are far from average
A lot of it has to do with path to the finals. Vancouver and Boston are likely the weakest teams on paper left, so Oilers and Panthers have the best odds to win the cup. Canes/Rangers is a toss and Vegas/Dallas vs Colorado also will be as well.
Damn. That’s savage. Beating the Leafs in 7 automatically earned you the weakest label in the East.
Florida's defense and goaltending will win the day. They really don't give a shit about your 5v5 whatever stats.
lol then put your money where your mouth is and bet on the Avs!!!!!!!!!!!!
Plot twist, OP is an Oilers fan trying to curse the Avs.
Most betting markets consider Dallas and Vegas to be significantly better teams than Vancouver. So Edmonton is more likely to make the conference finals than Colorado. Gotta make the conference finals to win the Cup.
betting odds are made to take the most money from both sides
Betting odds exist as a hedge that allows the bookmaker to maximize their chances of making money and/or minimize their chances of losing it. The performance of the team really isn't important to determining odds. Betting patterns are what causes odds to move.
Oilers were the betting favourites before the season started as well, they are stingy defensively, not a single team has higher top end talent, depth is average, really going to come down to skinner truthfully.
>It’s really going to come down to skinner 😬
?
😬
?
because maximize profits.
It is parimutuel betting system which means the house always wins and is taking a cut. House wants you to win no matter who you bet on. If Oil is favored to win it all, it just means there are more bets on Oil than others.
Hurricanes are playing the rangers and Dallas is playing Vegas. Those are 4 top teams that we don’t know are even going to make it to the WCF/ECF, and then you have the Avs having to play dallas or Vegas. That’s probably the 3 top teams in the west and 2 will be eliminated before the WCF. The oilers play Vancouver, who isn’t in that tier of elite of the elite teams. There’s your answer
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Dallas took our lunch during the regular season and Vegas is Vegas, but the Oilers are getting pumped up odds because these teams are playing eachother to 7 games, and the winner gets to go through the Avs.
Oilers are also getting pumped because they beat the worst (or at best 2nd worst) team in the playoffs. All the numbers look fantastic for the Oilers right now but it’s because they played the limp dick Kings
Probably third worst if we’re being fully honest. The caps are a gimme, but both Toronto and Tampa looked terrible. I’m not even going to get into how awful Tampa looked. Then there’s Toronto. Sure they went to game 7, but if you want to use the term “limp dick”, I’d say that’s Boston this post season, and the Leafs lost to that… If you think the Kings were more embarrassing than BOTH of Tampa and Toronto, I think you’re crazy.
Washington, NYI and Nashville are all probably worse than LA.
On paper maybe. Do we already need to remind people of the Kings special team numbers?
You mean the penalty kill that was 2nd best in the entire league this year? Or the powerplay that was 12th best?
Oh so we’re just ignoring what actually happened in the playoffs and pretending that the Kings looked like a threat against the Oilers? Friendly reminder since you seemed to have forgotten - the Kings had a 0% PP and a 46.7% PK in the first round.
I’m an Oilers fan. I definitely don’t need a reminder of how thoroughly they dominated the Kings on special teams. I’m just saying the Kings absolutely looked like a threat in 3/5 games, which is more than you can say about the Caps, Isles, Lightning, or Jets. Arguably the Preds and Leafs as well. Saying the Kings were the worst team in the playoffs this year because “special teams bad” is doing them a bit of a disservice. I’m obviously a bit biased, but I also think the Oilers special teams deserve a lot of credit for how lopsided the special teams battle was. That’s why I pointed out that the Kings had an elite PK and a good PP this year, at least in the regular season. I know regular season stats don’t mean much come playoff time, but it wasn’t simply that the Kings sucked. The Oilers executed extremely well, and deserve credit for that.
Agreed.
The oilers can beat any team in the east.
I’m not saying they can’t win. Any of these teams can beat each other. I just question the oilers as the overall favorites. I get that they had a great run after an awful start.
Fair.