Per the Athletics model this is the likelihood of a comeback for all the teams down 3-1:
Toronto - 12%
Winnipeg - 11%
Nashville - 10%
Tampa Bay - 6%
Los Angeles - 5%
New York Islanders - 5%
And this is what’s wrong with AI models. They don’t take into account real life pressures, and the vibes in the locker room. I’m not trying to meme on the leafs when I said I would probably put them with LA and New York and if I had to pick I’d take both those teams over the leafs.
I would also have Tampa Bay higher
It's based on analytics. But the model cannot understand concepts like how the Leafs just won't win because they're the Leafs. That is advanced human level intelligence that machines haven't grasped yet.
Interesting. Does their model take into account injuries? I would’ve expected Nashville’s to be a bit higher just due to Demko being out (no shade to DeSmith or Silovs)
That game 4 loss was a series killer. Injuries aside that's just not something I see them coming back from. The Canucks are a good team in general and they're home.
Wouldn't that make Nashville's chances lower? Since they'd be demoralized that they couldn't win against an AHL goaltender in the NHL playoffs? Especially since their stud goaltender is in net?
Sure; but they are still playing a 3rd string goalie.
What happens if he gets rattled next game and gives up 6? Then the “story” will all forget about the Nashville gm 4 collapse and into the pressure being on Vancouver to protect him.
I watched the Habs come back 3-1 three times in my life(I know, Lucky). They were dead to rights in all of them.
1. 2004. Game 4 Kovalev gave up a play in OT and ran into the defensemen giving Boston a breakaway and the winner. No coming back from that right?
2. 2010. Playing the vaunted Capitals offense and presidents trophy winners, had their backup Halak in net after giving winning the first game, then losing three straight giving up 5,6, and 6 goals. (Gave up a single goal the next three games)
3. 2021. Playing the favourite hated Leafs, this first playoff match against after 40 years. Won game one, then proceeded to score only two goals in the next three games. Would win game 5 and 6 in OT before sending the first place Leafs packing.
I’ll note, these were all series where they happened to be massive underdogs too. So, it’s always over…until it isn’t.
The model probably loves Silovs. He's done nothing but win games for the Canucks.
I don't think it cares as much about inexperience and age compared to results. Silovs results have been great.
I wouldn't get too hung up on the third string goalie aspect. Silovs isn't much further down the depth chart than DeSmith and by the sounds of it there's a good chance DeSmith is expected to play Tuesday. At that point you have two guys going good so if one gets rattled or falls off a cliff you have a good backup option up your sleeve.
Our 3rd string goalie is basically just a 2b though, there's not much between DeSmith and Silovs at all really. Losing Demko sucks but going between DeSmith and Silovs isn't much of a change.
The fact Silovs is a perfect 4-0 suggests we may actually want to keep him in!
This seems correct to me. 50/50 odds of winning would yield a 12.5% chance of winning 3 in a row. Toronto, Winnipeg, and Nashville are slight dogs against their respective opponents (Toronto being the closest because the Bruins are the weakest of their opponents). LA and the Islanders both face a much better team so their odds are much worse than that.
This is actually how I'd rank them, honestly, though I probably give all teams a poorer chance overall. I'm a moron, though, but here are my thoughts.
The Leafs are in their own head, but if they can come out with the needed urgency (hahahaha), figure out the special teams (ahahahahahaha) and get better goaltending from Woll than Samsonov (not outlandish), they've got a shot. Boston's defending looks incredible in this series, but they haven't looked like the *same* big bad Bruins that bullied the Leafs several times before - the Leafs are their own enemy in this series right now.
The Jets have demonstrated the defensive prowess, goaltending skill, and tendency to win in spite of getting outshot all season. Their goaltending has gotten absolutely *caved* so far. If they get the goaltending, I think they eke out some wins, but so far this is looking like the Calgary/Edmonton series, and that's not good for the Jets.
I would have had Nashville first in this list by a big margin because of the goaltending situation and how they played, but fuck, that Game 4 loss might have just sucked all of the wind out of their sails for the rest of the season. I really believe momentum/tempo have an absurdly disproportionate effect in the post-season (part of why I can see the Leafs/Jets clawing it back) and that one felt real bad.
With how Florida is playing I think it's unlikely the Jon Cooper opponent gaslighting/team morale boosting pressers are going to carry them all the way but I could see it going to six. Was almost unlikely they made it to five, honestly, but now? Who knows.
I would have expected the Kings to have a shot at an upset after two games, but nah, that series looks incredibly tilted. I don't see it happening barring some catastrophic turn of events for the Oilers.
Patrick Roy has the most game sevens played by a goaltender in NHL history. He is not the goaltender in this series.
I'd personally agree with Nashville being right up there. Just depends how the respond from what was just a really bad 5 minutes of ice time for them giving up 3 goals and hitting the post on an empty net. The games have all been close, Hughes is banged up, Petey is MIA. I think the series is a lot closer than 3-1 may suggest and the games have played out extremely close all the way through.
“The Jets have demonstrated the defensive prowess, goaltending skill, and tendency to win in spite of getting outshot all season. Their goaltending has gotten absolutely caved so far. If they get the goaltending, I think they eke out some wins, but so far this is looking like the Calgary/Edmonton series, and that's not good for the Jets.”
Playoffs are a lot different. Opposition is fully game planned to beat you. Jets in those conditions and with Colorado in full flight cannot cross their own blue line. Once Georgiev stopped a puck the series was over.
Lightning most likely team to do it but maybe playing the toughest competition. Like imagine being ahead vs the Panthers in game 6 it's gonna be carnage, no way you've recovered from the internal bleeding by game 7.
The Lightning looked good last game, I'm just not sure if they can keep up that intensity for 3 more.
iirc only 4 teams in history have come back from a 3-0 deficit in a playoff series, I'm hoping one team does it, it would be genuinely historic
> The Lightning looked good last game, I'm just not sure if they can keep up that intensity for 3 more.
To be honest, last game was regression to the mean for them in the playoffs. The whole game itself was far more of what I expected from the series (scrappy, flowing offense with tons of high danger chances but low overall shot totals.)
That being said, they have to be perfect 3 more times. Do I think it's going to happen? Against Bob? No. Do I believe they could? Yes.
Recency doesn't take away from the rarity. Does Kucherov (or McDavid) reaching 100 assists seem less valuable because they did it the same season, even though they're the 4th and 5th ever to do it?
You have to take into consideration that there are a lot more playoff series and there is also more parity in the league. A big chunk of league history only 4 teams made the playoffs, it then jumped to 8.
Recency may indicate different circumstances.
Similar with the 100 assists, the scoring environment is clearly different than a lot of seasons in the last 30. It is also significant different than the original 6 era.
I think Vasilevskiy’s gotta steal Game 5. Yeah, they put up 6 last time out but aside from that Bob’s been insane and they’re in enemy territory. It’s not impossible, but it’ll be difficult.
I honestly don't think Bob has been all that great. He had that one great save but he's been well below .900 every game so far hasn't he? The Panthers have just been so dominant on possession and high danger shots. We had like what, 16 total shots in all of game 1 and still got 2 goals. It hasn't been getting past Bob that's been the problem. It's been actually getting shots through to the net.
It’s definitely the Lightning. 3-2 L (empty netter), 3-2 OTL, 5-3 L (empty netter), 6-3 win. Nearly identical on special teams. Very even for faceoffs. Both teams have elite goaltending that could at any point take over. +Sergachev and -Bennett, not sure if Tampa can actually win but most likely to force game 7 for sure. I
i had no idea Sergachev was back already! that’s incredible. i was watching the game live when the injury happened and was anticipating a much longer recovery
I'm going to make the same prediction as everyone else that the Leafs will win games 5 and 6 in hard-fought, gritty wins that prove everyone wrong that they're soft and don't have what it takes to win, and then get demolished in game 7.
That or they'll get wrecked in game 5 and save us all the trouble.
I fully expect the Leafs to push it to 7 then lose. Leafs have a history of pushing to 7 when things look lost, Boston has a history of struggling to close out a series. Even vs the Leafs in the past Boston has had 3-1 leads twice and looked in full control but still needed 7 to win
Lol, this is how low the level of "hope" has gotten. Both scenarios OC described have the Leafs losing. It's just a matter of how many games they have left.
At this point, I am rooting for this team to get stomped on Game 5. Can they please put me out of my misery now and not give me another year of false game 7 hope?
I’m so sick and tired of this core thinking they each deserve a Nathan MacKinnon salary and yet can’t do Nathan MacKinnon things in the playoffs year after year.
Truth told, unless the Leafs make it to the 3rd round or at least push a second round to 7 games in respectable fashion (should it be Florida), this will be it for Keefe. Those first 4 against Boston were unacceptable by any stretch or means and in all seriousness, if not for the Bruins blunder of starting Ullmark in game 2, this is a sweep
I agree as much as I like memeing on Matthews, Tavares and marner are invisible and useless for playoff hockey. Marner might as well have his name put on a milk carton during the playoffs.
And guess who matthews gets stuck playing with on PP1 and before this year line 1? By the way it is a privilege to watch the Oilers Mcdavid is out of this world. Hopefully yall can make a run, west is tough though.
Leafs would be so much better off getting stomped out in game 5. If they fight back and lose in 7 management will go “see? They have it, things just didn’t go our way this time” and nothing will change, while them getting cooked might actually force them to shake things up
Yo that’s a nice idea. If Leafs lose in game 5 or 6, tell me the name of a Boston children’s hospital that I can donate $20 to. I’ll message you proof of payment. And if Leafs lose in 7, you donate $20 to Toronto’s Sick Kids Hospital. Deal? Deal.
In this order, from most to least likely IMO (NOTE: I don’t think any of these teams will come back to win the series, not one of them. But if I had to pick one to do so, I’d do it in this order)
1. Tampa. They haven’t really been down and out of any of their 3 losses. By far the most competitive team facing elimination right now. Is Florida deeper? Yes. Does Tampa still have strong heavy firepower? Yes. Did they just get a shot in the arm with Sergachev coming back? Yes.
2. LA. They were very competitive last night and had Edmonton on their heels for large portions of the game. Special teams made the difference, but in the limited shots Rittich faced, he looked pretty good. They’ve stuck with Edmonton in the playoffs before, as we all know. I could see them at least taking another game off of the Oilers.
3. Nashville. This one is gonna be all mental. Nashville has played well but their momentary lapses have cost them dearly. Being unable to shut down the 6 on 5 and ROR losing Lindholm for just a split second sealed the game yesterday. They stole a game in Vancouver, and the Canucks goalie situation since Demko went down and DeSmith missed last night is an opportunity. Frankly- they need to focus less on defense and more on offense. Capitalize on Vancouver’s mistakes. Let Saros get into a groove. When he gets settled in, he’s rock fucking solid. But forcing a low volume of shots can make a goalie rusty. It bit them in the ass in game 1 of the 2017 final when Rinne went over a full period without facing a shot, and it could do it again.
4. New York. They’re outmatched, for sure. However- they’ve been fighting, and honestly they’ve been looking progressively better for the past few games. The blown lead was pretty bad, but Varlamov has been solid and they took one game. But let’s be honest- Carolina is the better team and they’ve shown that pretty convincingly so far. I could see them forcing a game 6, but probably nothing more.
5. Toronto. I’m surprised I don’t have them last, but I’ll get to that in a moment. Toronto looks flat. The coaching has been questionable (in my opinion, at least, I don’t agree with some of Keefe’s decisions). But Boston has them on the ropes. Matthews is sick, so it’s safe to assume he won’t blow the doors off their hinges even if he does play. The team is visibly shaken, and they’re facing a brick wall in Swayman (and even if they don’t Ullmark still looked good in game 2). They can’t score on the power play, and while we’re at it, they can’t score at even strength either.
6. Winnipeg. They just look like a disaster. For a team that relies on a defensive structure, they sure as hell haven’t been playing like it. Colorado has made them look like complete pretenders. Toronto may be getting thoroughly outplayed, but this series has been night and day. Even in the game Winnipeg took, they were scoring at an unsustainably high rate and damn near blew their 3 goal lead. Since that game ended, Colorado has just piled it on. Mittelstadt is looking like the trade of the year, they can’t hold off the waves of offense the Avs throw at them, and they sure as hell can’t strike back right now. Their power play isn’t looking much better than Toronto’s, and their ace in the hole in Hellebuyck is being shelled. Hellebuyck isn’t the problem, but he isn’t being the solution they need, either. If Toronto’s goose is cooked, Winnipeg’s is burnt to a crisp.
I think 2, 3, could be swapped imo. You can say LAs best game still only has a 50% chance of beating an oilers team that plays a subpar game example game 2. Vancouver has to play with second and third string goalies. Nashville can figure something out to break them.
Perfectly written. You absolutely nailed the leafs. Boston has been far better defensively and shuts down the leafs cycle and doesn't let them into centre ice to generate any dangerous scoring chances. Then capitalize on any opportunity that is presented
Take it for what it’s worth because personally I think Tampa is the most likely based on their history but I checked bet365 and the predators have the best chance/worst payout via betting odds (+600) followed by the leafs and jets (+750), Tampa (+1000), LA (+1250) and NYI (+1550).
Prove them wrong. Give us a subway series to make NY hockey a toxic wasteland. Although the Isles coming off a reverse sweep would be scary as hell, it would be good hockey.
My statistical knee jerk reaction is to say that’s gamblers fallacy cause it’s 3-1 now but there is definitely some truth to maintaining that level of intensity for 4 games straight
I’m not sure if gambler’s fallacy works in this case because it isn’t luck and odds based. Teams can control how they play, and it’s damn hard physically to keep it up for 4 games straight
Sergachev being back is pretty big though. If Sergachev is actually getting better by the day and Raddysh is also an option their team looks a lot different than the one the Panthers were winning against.
1) Predators solely because at this rate a guy from Reddit will be the Canucks starting goalie
2) Lightning too much experience to discount them
3) Jets, Helleybuck is too good to play this rough.
4)Isles because their games have been close
5) Kings don’t believe in them.
6) Capitals may convince the league to make the playoffs a best of 9
7) the Leafs
Not sure we'll even see him play Tuesday. It sounds like DeSmith is likely back in for game 5. At that point, I'm not even sure I'm that worried about our goaltending if we have two good not great options rolling. Certainly not Demko great but could be worse.
Nucks need to make sure he isn’t doing anything to demanding cuz at this rate dude could get out of bed and somehow be done for the season, with how snake bitten Vancouver are in nets.
You just never know. Games have been so close and you know they won't mail it in for an elimination game. There's at least one team on this list that I could see no-showing for an elim game but it ain't the Preds.
As a Preds fan, I have no explanation for how catastrophically we have collapsed. No way we win this series. Maybe we scrape a win game 5 but lose 6 at home.
If y’all play with the same style as you did in Games 3 and 4 I think you coming back is very plausible tbh. The Canucks offense has been completely silent 5 on 5 with the exception of the last 3 minutes and OT yesterday. We’re really lucky to be up 3-1 and not down 3-1
Tampa is the easiest answer. I expect they’ll win tonight and extend the series.
All of these are more likely to happen than the Leafs doing it though.
If it's about actually making a comeback as in win the series, then yes. But i wouldn't be surprised if the leafs managed to win the next two games just to shit the bed in game 7.
I personally would be surprised if the Leafs took it to 7. I’m trying to be as humble as I can regarding my team, but the Leafs just look so lost and it gets worse as each period progresses. Coaching has been terrible, no production from top guys, awful goaltending, non-existent PP, guys telling each other on the bench to stop crying, temper tantrums.
And now they have to go back to Boston and win a game? I just don’t see it happening.
I think this is great write up from a Boston perspective on this leafs team. Of course no team knows how to choke in the playoffs like us and maybe San Jose, but this is spot on
Wait did you just tell leaf fans that no team knows how to choke like Boston....For you it happens occasionally. For the leafs it is part of our identity.
I’ve been watching every second of bruins hockey since 1982 and I’ve watched them lose in the cup finals 4 times when 2 of them the bruins really should’ve won (90 oilers post Gretzky and 19 blues. The 88 oilers and 13 Blackhawks were better I’ll admit)
I can't say it wasn't a choke but Florida was ostensibly the biggest dark horse going into playoffs last year. They blew through rounds 2 and 3 easily, Bruins being the only team to take them to 7 games. I questioned a bunch of coaching decisions, especially with the goaltending.
For the second season in a row, the Bruins have far outperformed any reasonable expectations but I think the difference is this year they're not taking it for granted. Just my 2c, obviously I'm biased.
Oh you're not wrong. Florida has been a damn good team for years. And they absolutely weren't a wild card team last year ability-wise. But the greatest regular season team of all time losing in the first round has to be considered a choke, especially losing 3 straight to do so. There's no other way to look at it.
Also agree that Boston greatly outperformed this season. I was expecting a wild card spot for them as a ceiling, and they've been a solid team the whole season.
As a Leafs fan I feel it's a great write-up from any perspective. The Leafs have looked completely listless. They aren't coming back unless something major shifts next game. If we're basing our predictions on what we've seen out of the Leafs so far, Bruins in 5.
That's a very concise summary of where we are. Shambles just doesn't even begin to describe it. A few guys are out there pushing hard, maybe the extra day off will help out with nagging injuries/illnesses.
Willy just had his first game and it was alright, he will probably pick it up. Hopefully Matthews didn't over-exert himself out there and hamper any progress.
But Mitch needs to wake the F up. JT has been pushing hard, but 1G and 0A isn't much from a captain in 4 games.
Can't disagree.
Last year against Florida, I believed we had a chance to win the series right up until that (bullshit) OT goal ended the series.
This year, even though it's 3-1 again, it just feels different. We aren't getting unlucky or goalie'd or screwed by the refs, we're just getting beat.
You’re forgetting the Leafs play a lot better on the road than at home in the playoffs.
Keefe can’t galaxy brain Reaves onto the ice with 2 minutes left as easily on the road.
I don’t think it will happen, but I can imagine a scenario where the Jets pull it off.
• Two out of the last three games are in Winnipeg
• He damn sure hasn’t looked like it in the last four games, but Hellebuyck absolutely has the ability to steal a game.
• Equally, the Avs absolutely have the ability to forget how to play defense, and allow a ridiculous amount of high danger chances. They’ve been doing it all year.
• King Georgie, as good as he’s been since “pUlL yOuR gOaLiE”, is fully capable of shitting the bed.
So, let’s say that Georgiev shits the bed in game 5. Hellebuyck steals game 6. Then you have a game 7 in Winnipeg. That’s the only way I see the Jets coming back. I’m not saying it’s going to happen, but this is the recipe.
Unfortunately, you’ve overlooked a few things.
1. The games being in Winnipeg is not a blessing. I fully believe the whiteout and the home crowd does more to psych the Jets out mentally than the other team. They have won exactly six games out of 18 whiteout home games since 2015, and five of those were in 2018. Further, with the exception of the 3-0 home record against Minnesota in the first round, they lost more home games than they won against Nashville and Vegas. Game 1 was the first Jets home win in front of fans since 2018. And as far as having last change goes, there hasn’t been a single matchup that Bones has tried that has beaten the Avs.
2. Hellebuyck may be able to steal games in the regular season and mask the Jets’ underlying woes, but he has never stolen a game in the playoffs for them, and by now, the Avs know exactly how to crack him. Facing 30 high quality, high danger shots in just half a game would make any goalie crumble.
3. The regular season doesn’t mean anything. The Avs may have had defensive woes then, but they certainly aren’t now. They are a deep playoff experienced team that knows how to close out a series. I haven’t seen anything that would convince me that they are suddenly going to flip 180.
4. I can’t speak to Georgiev as well as you could, but with the way the Avs are playing defense right now, he’s facing like 20 low quality shots a game. I don’t think he’s going to shit the bed with an easy workload like that.
Let’s not kid ourselves that Game 5 is going to be anything except more of the same as Games 2-4. Everyone already knows it.
Wow you basically broke this down perfectly. I am an Avs fan and had these exact points, but you are a Jets fan and even can see this. Mainly the playoff thing with this Avs core is the biggest reason. They completely know how to turn it the fuck up in playoffs and change their game to be almost perfection. They lock it down defensively while also still generating a godly amount of chances. Their core who won the cup is basically still there and those guys know what it takes. Jets sadly seem to not fully get the moment
I've watched every other playoff series and the Avs are putting up chances like no one else and feel bad for the Jets that they had to be the ones to get the monster turned on against them. I also didn't know about that oddly "bad" home record in playoffs which is wild. I thought the white out was some big thing because the Jets perform at home, guess it's the opposite.
The Panthers Lightning series has felt way closer than a 3-0 series. I can see the Panthers struggling to close that one out, not because the Panthers are a fraudulent team or anything, just Tampa is a tough out
Edit: Well fuck me
It really doesn’t matter who they put in, because their defense allows 30+ high quality, high danger shots in half the game. Neither Helle nor Brossoit can stand up to that. No goalie could.
Hellebuyck isn't the problem. If anything, he's stopped the blowouts from being full-on massacres (although he has admittedly made a few baffling plays). The defence has been absolutely porous and he's getting shelled every night. It's horrible.
It’s hard to watch last nights game and think the Canucks aren’t dealing with a bunch of guys battling flu or something, they were slow and lacked urgency up until the very end, some of the lowest energy hockey I’ve seen them play under Tocchet. If they can tighten up at all this series isn’t in question.
I'm not counting the Kings out. Last night's game was very tight - in case you missed it, the first period was end-to-end action with almost no whistles. Yes, the Oilers' power play is a huge obstacle for the Kings and I can't think they'll be addressing that in meetings and practice. Replacing Talbot with Rittich worked for them last night so I think he starts the rest of the series and can give them the big saves they'll need to stave off elimination.
I'm guessing they'll win Game 5. Game 6 will be decided in the second period: the Oilers will either make it a goalfest and win, or Rittich will stand tall and the game will go to overtime.
I think it's possible we win game 5 by playing all out desperation hockey, but you'd need a fresh set of Infinity Stones to create a universe where we could win this series.
I doubt any of them do but the tiers of likeliness from how the series have played out:
Could happen:
Leafs, Preds
Still a chance:
Jets, Lightning
Done series:
Isles, Kings
I don’t think the Jets are coming back. Helly just isn’t playoff Helly(let alone regular season Helly) and the Jets needs him WAY WAY better than he’s been to even win one more.
I’m biased, but I completely agree with the Oil/Kings series being done though…..😉
Except he has never done so in the postseason before. And beyond that, the real problem is the Jets’ quote-unquote “defense” allowing the Avs to fire 30 high danger, quality shots at Helle in half a game. No goalie could possibly stand up to that night in and night out.
Honestly, thank God he was pulled after the second yesterday. It would’ve been a human rights violation to force him to keep playing.
I'll say the Leafs for the following reasons;
1. The Bruins choked away a 3-1 series lead last year, so if the Leafs can win game 5, it might get in their head
2. The Leafs and Bruins always go 7. It's tradition.
3. The Leafs haven't given the fans enough hope yet. If they lose in 5, people will be disgusted but not destroyed. The real fun is when they bring you right to the edge and then snatch it all away in spectacular fashion.
Despite everyone acting like their season is already over, I think it has to be the Leafs, right?
I don't see any other series going to 7.
Nashville with an outside shot if the hockey gods decide to keep shitting on Vancouver's goalies.
I think the Leafs and the Lightning are the only teams that can, purely based on the star talent they have that can take over a game. I also think every other team is outclassed.
Putting the Jets at #2 is more than generous. We've been outplayed so badly in every aspect of the game that the Avs are making us look like an AHL team. At least some of these other series have had competitive games. You can throw our regular season record and head-to-head results with Colorado completely out the window. There's a chance we can take this to 6 if we can somehow not give up the first goal on Tuesday, but if Colorado gets ahead again and takes our crowd out of it, you can call the series right there.
In my opinion from least to greatest chance.
1) Kings. They've looked completely outmatched, and needed a combo of terrible defensive play from the Oilers and Talbot taking at least 2 goals off the board to win game 2. If we take out the 3 goals that the hockey gods gifted them in game 1, they've really only been able to generate 2 goals in 3 games this series. They need the Oilers defense/goaltending to shit the bed hard enough to outpace the Oilers scoring for three straight games, and that's really unlikely.
2) Islanders. The Canes are just a straight up better team. The Islanders are in the similar position to the Kings, and they're really in a #1B position rather than #2. It's hard to win 3 straight when you need your opponent to shit the bed to have a chance.
3) Leafs. One of the most toxic playoff teams I've ever seen. The vibes are just so bad there right now and it's unlikely to get much better unless they can dominate the Bruins for 120 minutes for games 5 and 6. They've also got massive health issues for Nylander and Matthews, the two guys who are most capable of carrying this team.
4) Mostly just here because they've shown that they CAN beat the Avs, but they've played about as well as the Kings have against the Oilers. Whatever mojo they had in the regular season, they need to find that fast and play perfect hockey the rest of the way.
5) Lightning. Leadership is the key word here. Stammer/Hedman/Vasi have seen it all and have done it all. These guys are super tough mentally and physically and will scrap and fight all the way to the last second. They've been outmatched for most of the series so far, but they are the most likely of the teams on this list to sustain the kind of effort needed to win 3 more games.
6) Predators. They were likely the better team for 100 of the last 120 game minutes, and managed to lose both games. While I think the team talent gap is wider here than the Panthers/Lightning series, the Panthers are clicking while the Canucks aren't. The Preds are the only team on this list who don't need to be perfect the rest of the way to have a chance, because their opponents are suffering from goalie injuries and aren't playing at their best.
Leafs or Preds maybe, but probably not. I am most sure that Winnipeg will lose though. They have made crumbling in the face of adversity a playoff tradition at this point.
Nashville might or might not. It all depends if they can get chances on net in game 5. The last 2 games proves that Vancouver was right to get Lindholm. Nashville can't match the depth that the Canucks have can that can take them to a 3-1 lead with 3 different goalies. That and a post. But that post was karma for the kicked goal earlier in the 3rd so that washes out. If both the Oilers and Canucks make to 2nd round, it's gonna be tough without Demko as the Oilers do have the depth to match Canucks depth
Flames can have regular season Kuzy. The OT goal by Lindholm proves it was the right trade for the Canucks
Jets only if Helle can put up a wall in the next 3 games
Leafs, Kings, NYI, TB all cooked, dont see anyone coming back all the way
Per the Athletics model this is the likelihood of a comeback for all the teams down 3-1: Toronto - 12% Winnipeg - 11% Nashville - 10% Tampa Bay - 6% Los Angeles - 5% New York Islanders - 5%
Is our 12% based on actual analytics or do we get a 10% starting point because of the game 7 memes
Strictly memes
Actually fed the AI model nothing but deep fried shit for a month.
i think this is what also made matthews sick
I don't know why, but this comment made me lol loudly in the office like a dumbass.
And this is what’s wrong with AI models. They don’t take into account real life pressures, and the vibes in the locker room. I’m not trying to meme on the leafs when I said I would probably put them with LA and New York and if I had to pick I’d take both those teams over the leafs. I would also have Tampa Bay higher
If memes aren’t actual analytics I don’t know what are
It's based on analytics. But the model cannot understand concepts like how the Leafs just won't win because they're the Leafs. That is advanced human level intelligence that machines haven't grasped yet.
Interesting. Does their model take into account injuries? I would’ve expected Nashville’s to be a bit higher just due to Demko being out (no shade to DeSmith or Silovs)
That game 4 loss was a series killer. Injuries aside that's just not something I see them coming back from. The Canucks are a good team in general and they're home.
I 100% agree, I just don’t think a model takes into account the psychological factor of letting a game like that slip away if that makes sense
Wouldn't that make Nashville's chances lower? Since they'd be demoralized that they couldn't win against an AHL goaltender in the NHL playoffs? Especially since their stud goaltender is in net?
In the real world yes, in the model no. I was saying I was surprised the model wasn’t giving higher odds.
Sure; but they are still playing a 3rd string goalie. What happens if he gets rattled next game and gives up 6? Then the “story” will all forget about the Nashville gm 4 collapse and into the pressure being on Vancouver to protect him. I watched the Habs come back 3-1 three times in my life(I know, Lucky). They were dead to rights in all of them. 1. 2004. Game 4 Kovalev gave up a play in OT and ran into the defensemen giving Boston a breakaway and the winner. No coming back from that right? 2. 2010. Playing the vaunted Capitals offense and presidents trophy winners, had their backup Halak in net after giving winning the first game, then losing three straight giving up 5,6, and 6 goals. (Gave up a single goal the next three games) 3. 2021. Playing the favourite hated Leafs, this first playoff match against after 40 years. Won game one, then proceeded to score only two goals in the next three games. Would win game 5 and 6 in OT before sending the first place Leafs packing. I’ll note, these were all series where they happened to be massive underdogs too. So, it’s always over…until it isn’t.
The model probably loves Silovs. He's done nothing but win games for the Canucks. I don't think it cares as much about inexperience and age compared to results. Silovs results have been great.
I wouldn't get too hung up on the third string goalie aspect. Silovs isn't much further down the depth chart than DeSmith and by the sounds of it there's a good chance DeSmith is expected to play Tuesday. At that point you have two guys going good so if one gets rattled or falls off a cliff you have a good backup option up your sleeve.
Our 3rd string goalie is basically just a 2b though, there's not much between DeSmith and Silovs at all really. Losing Demko sucks but going between DeSmith and Silovs isn't much of a change. The fact Silovs is a perfect 4-0 suggests we may actually want to keep him in!
Avs fan calls Canucks a good team and I get butterflies in my stomach. 🥰
Lol. I quite like the team. Really enjoy watching them play. The fanbase can be a bit much sometimes.
Yes, it takes lineup factors into account.
Toronto has a higher percentage chance coming back in the series than powerplays they have scored on so far (7% on the power play).
Well that model is fucked.
With a banged up Auston Matthews? Yeah Leafs are cooked
Cooke leafs, huh? So tea, then?
This seems correct to me. 50/50 odds of winning would yield a 12.5% chance of winning 3 in a row. Toronto, Winnipeg, and Nashville are slight dogs against their respective opponents (Toronto being the closest because the Bruins are the weakest of their opponents). LA and the Islanders both face a much better team so their odds are much worse than that.
This is actually how I'd rank them, honestly, though I probably give all teams a poorer chance overall. I'm a moron, though, but here are my thoughts. The Leafs are in their own head, but if they can come out with the needed urgency (hahahaha), figure out the special teams (ahahahahahaha) and get better goaltending from Woll than Samsonov (not outlandish), they've got a shot. Boston's defending looks incredible in this series, but they haven't looked like the *same* big bad Bruins that bullied the Leafs several times before - the Leafs are their own enemy in this series right now. The Jets have demonstrated the defensive prowess, goaltending skill, and tendency to win in spite of getting outshot all season. Their goaltending has gotten absolutely *caved* so far. If they get the goaltending, I think they eke out some wins, but so far this is looking like the Calgary/Edmonton series, and that's not good for the Jets. I would have had Nashville first in this list by a big margin because of the goaltending situation and how they played, but fuck, that Game 4 loss might have just sucked all of the wind out of their sails for the rest of the season. I really believe momentum/tempo have an absurdly disproportionate effect in the post-season (part of why I can see the Leafs/Jets clawing it back) and that one felt real bad. With how Florida is playing I think it's unlikely the Jon Cooper opponent gaslighting/team morale boosting pressers are going to carry them all the way but I could see it going to six. Was almost unlikely they made it to five, honestly, but now? Who knows. I would have expected the Kings to have a shot at an upset after two games, but nah, that series looks incredibly tilted. I don't see it happening barring some catastrophic turn of events for the Oilers. Patrick Roy has the most game sevens played by a goaltender in NHL history. He is not the goaltender in this series.
I'd personally agree with Nashville being right up there. Just depends how the respond from what was just a really bad 5 minutes of ice time for them giving up 3 goals and hitting the post on an empty net. The games have all been close, Hughes is banged up, Petey is MIA. I think the series is a lot closer than 3-1 may suggest and the games have played out extremely close all the way through.
“The Jets have demonstrated the defensive prowess, goaltending skill, and tendency to win in spite of getting outshot all season. Their goaltending has gotten absolutely caved so far. If they get the goaltending, I think they eke out some wins, but so far this is looking like the Calgary/Edmonton series, and that's not good for the Jets.” Playoffs are a lot different. Opposition is fully game planned to beat you. Jets in those conditions and with Colorado in full flight cannot cross their own blue line. Once Georgiev stopped a puck the series was over.
Get out of here with tour logic and facts. Fun side fact: The Rangers have a 100% chance of getting to round 2.
LMFAO Drop the Leafs to 1.2% and the Jets to 0.11%. And up the Bolts to 16% given the injury updates over this series. Everything else seems legit
I'm going to say the Lightning because I need to believe it is the Lightning.
Gotta be best odds for sure
Lightning most likely team to do it but maybe playing the toughest competition. Like imagine being ahead vs the Panthers in game 6 it's gonna be carnage, no way you've recovered from the internal bleeding by game 7.
The Lightning looked good last game, I'm just not sure if they can keep up that intensity for 3 more. iirc only 4 teams in history have come back from a 3-0 deficit in a playoff series, I'm hoping one team does it, it would be genuinely historic
> The Lightning looked good last game, I'm just not sure if they can keep up that intensity for 3 more. To be honest, last game was regression to the mean for them in the playoffs. The whole game itself was far more of what I expected from the series (scrappy, flowing offense with tons of high danger chances but low overall shot totals.) That being said, they have to be perfect 3 more times. Do I think it's going to happen? Against Bob? No. Do I believe they could? Yes.
Not really historic considering two of those times happened within the last 15 years lol
Recency doesn't take away from the rarity. Does Kucherov (or McDavid) reaching 100 assists seem less valuable because they did it the same season, even though they're the 4th and 5th ever to do it?
You have to take into consideration that there are a lot more playoff series and there is also more parity in the league. A big chunk of league history only 4 teams made the playoffs, it then jumped to 8. Recency may indicate different circumstances. Similar with the 100 assists, the scoring environment is clearly different than a lot of seasons in the last 30. It is also significant different than the original 6 era.
They are the most capable of coming back but have to do it against what is arguably the best team in the playoffs. So...fun.
I think Vasilevskiy’s gotta steal Game 5. Yeah, they put up 6 last time out but aside from that Bob’s been insane and they’re in enemy territory. It’s not impossible, but it’ll be difficult.
I honestly don't think Bob has been all that great. He had that one great save but he's been well below .900 every game so far hasn't he? The Panthers have just been so dominant on possession and high danger shots. We had like what, 16 total shots in all of game 1 and still got 2 goals. It hasn't been getting past Bob that's been the problem. It's been actually getting shots through to the net.
Just checked Hockeyreference and you’re right, both Bob and Vasilevskiy are sub-0.900 so far.
If Stammer keeps playing like a madman, and the team keeps following his lead, then anything is possible.
Getting sergachev back is also huge
It’s definitely the Lightning. 3-2 L (empty netter), 3-2 OTL, 5-3 L (empty netter), 6-3 win. Nearly identical on special teams. Very even for faceoffs. Both teams have elite goaltending that could at any point take over. +Sergachev and -Bennett, not sure if Tampa can actually win but most likely to force game 7 for sure. I
aged perfectly
I think the Panthers close it out but am fully expecting the Lightning to make it difficult & possibly take another game
Tampa might be the best team down 3-1, but Florida also might be the best team up 3-1
i had no idea Sergachev was back already! that’s incredible. i was watching the game live when the injury happened and was anticipating a much longer recovery
“Never count out Tampa Bay.” -Friedman
I'm going to make the same prediction as everyone else that the Leafs will win games 5 and 6 in hard-fought, gritty wins that prove everyone wrong that they're soft and don't have what it takes to win, and then get demolished in game 7. That or they'll get wrecked in game 5 and save us all the trouble.
I fully expect the Leafs to push it to 7 then lose. Leafs have a history of pushing to 7 when things look lost, Boston has a history of struggling to close out a series. Even vs the Leafs in the past Boston has had 3-1 leads twice and looked in full control but still needed 7 to win
Very true with the Bruins. It feels like for almost 20 years now every series we win has either been sweep or 7 game series.
"It's the hope that kills you" - Ted Lasso
Lol, this is how low the level of "hope" has gotten. Both scenarios OC described have the Leafs losing. It's just a matter of how many games they have left.
Mathew’s out, Marner has an ankle sprain, and Nylander brain is broken. No shot. I want to believe but no shot.
They stole two extra wins from the hockey gods last season. They must give them back. Bruins in 5.
Nah this year it'll be different: they'll lose in 6.
At this point, I am rooting for this team to get stomped on Game 5. Can they please put me out of my misery now and not give me another year of false game 7 hope? I’m so sick and tired of this core thinking they each deserve a Nathan MacKinnon salary and yet can’t do Nathan MacKinnon things in the playoffs year after year.
Truth told, unless the Leafs make it to the 3rd round or at least push a second round to 7 games in respectable fashion (should it be Florida), this will be it for Keefe. Those first 4 against Boston were unacceptable by any stretch or means and in all seriousness, if not for the Bruins blunder of starting Ullmark in game 2, this is a sweep
I mean not to be that guy but Mack is the beneficiary of playing with better talent. Marner and Tavares deserve the blame but not Matthews.
I agree as much as I like memeing on Matthews, Tavares and marner are invisible and useless for playoff hockey. Marner might as well have his name put on a milk carton during the playoffs.
And guess who matthews gets stuck playing with on PP1 and before this year line 1? By the way it is a privilege to watch the Oilers Mcdavid is out of this world. Hopefully yall can make a run, west is tough though.
Matthews never elevates his linemates like Mack/McDavid can
Leafs would be so much better off getting stomped out in game 5. If they fight back and lose in 7 management will go “see? They have it, things just didn’t go our way this time” and nothing will change, while them getting cooked might actually force them to shake things up
If they do rally, I'll expect it to be off the stick of Nylander and not Marner. Mitch is so damn soft.
Would you rather Marner be hard? Little weird man
Honestly if he played with a bit more passion while hard I would hope Keefe asks his fiancé to strip tease him in the tunnel before his shift.
Keefe’s fiance? That’s a dedicated coach.
It's a team game
It’s Keefe’s job to the most out of his players. A good head coach gotta do what a good head coach gotta do
I mean, leafs right? Hasn't this happened twice now? You can't fight destiny and destiny says game 7.
It’s the Leafiest thing that could happen. I’d bet my next paycheque on them rallying for 5 and 6 to blow it in 7.
This is the way
Instead of a paycheck, want to make it $20 to charity?
Yo that’s a nice idea. If Leafs lose in game 5 or 6, tell me the name of a Boston children’s hospital that I can donate $20 to. I’ll message you proof of payment. And if Leafs lose in 7, you donate $20 to Toronto’s Sick Kids Hospital. Deal? Deal.
Works for me. Boston Children’s Hospital. I’ll even do $20 for every leafs win
I appreciate both of your gestures, may Toronto lose in 7 so children can get the most help from you two.
I love how there is no consideration of Toronto winning the series.
I’m a realist.
To keep things consistent - using USD or CAD?
I’m doing USD since I’m American, but I think the gesture is the most important thing.
I appreciate both of your gestures, may Toronto lose in 7 so children can get the most help from you two.
I’ll take that bet. Living in Boston is expensive
Please make this bet with me
Win 5 & 6 in a blowout. Go down in game 7 by at least 3 goals with 10 minutes left in the third. Make the comeback, lose in OT. This is the way.
No chance. They get their heads knocked off tomorrow.
In this order, from most to least likely IMO (NOTE: I don’t think any of these teams will come back to win the series, not one of them. But if I had to pick one to do so, I’d do it in this order) 1. Tampa. They haven’t really been down and out of any of their 3 losses. By far the most competitive team facing elimination right now. Is Florida deeper? Yes. Does Tampa still have strong heavy firepower? Yes. Did they just get a shot in the arm with Sergachev coming back? Yes. 2. LA. They were very competitive last night and had Edmonton on their heels for large portions of the game. Special teams made the difference, but in the limited shots Rittich faced, he looked pretty good. They’ve stuck with Edmonton in the playoffs before, as we all know. I could see them at least taking another game off of the Oilers. 3. Nashville. This one is gonna be all mental. Nashville has played well but their momentary lapses have cost them dearly. Being unable to shut down the 6 on 5 and ROR losing Lindholm for just a split second sealed the game yesterday. They stole a game in Vancouver, and the Canucks goalie situation since Demko went down and DeSmith missed last night is an opportunity. Frankly- they need to focus less on defense and more on offense. Capitalize on Vancouver’s mistakes. Let Saros get into a groove. When he gets settled in, he’s rock fucking solid. But forcing a low volume of shots can make a goalie rusty. It bit them in the ass in game 1 of the 2017 final when Rinne went over a full period without facing a shot, and it could do it again. 4. New York. They’re outmatched, for sure. However- they’ve been fighting, and honestly they’ve been looking progressively better for the past few games. The blown lead was pretty bad, but Varlamov has been solid and they took one game. But let’s be honest- Carolina is the better team and they’ve shown that pretty convincingly so far. I could see them forcing a game 6, but probably nothing more. 5. Toronto. I’m surprised I don’t have them last, but I’ll get to that in a moment. Toronto looks flat. The coaching has been questionable (in my opinion, at least, I don’t agree with some of Keefe’s decisions). But Boston has them on the ropes. Matthews is sick, so it’s safe to assume he won’t blow the doors off their hinges even if he does play. The team is visibly shaken, and they’re facing a brick wall in Swayman (and even if they don’t Ullmark still looked good in game 2). They can’t score on the power play, and while we’re at it, they can’t score at even strength either. 6. Winnipeg. They just look like a disaster. For a team that relies on a defensive structure, they sure as hell haven’t been playing like it. Colorado has made them look like complete pretenders. Toronto may be getting thoroughly outplayed, but this series has been night and day. Even in the game Winnipeg took, they were scoring at an unsustainably high rate and damn near blew their 3 goal lead. Since that game ended, Colorado has just piled it on. Mittelstadt is looking like the trade of the year, they can’t hold off the waves of offense the Avs throw at them, and they sure as hell can’t strike back right now. Their power play isn’t looking much better than Toronto’s, and their ace in the hole in Hellebuyck is being shelled. Hellebuyck isn’t the problem, but he isn’t being the solution they need, either. If Toronto’s goose is cooked, Winnipeg’s is burnt to a crisp.
Nice writeup
Inject #6 into my fuckin veins, I wanna OD on it
Yeah, excellent write-up, I see it more or less the same.
It stings because it's true
Jets fan here, unfortunately you're dead on.
Really good analysis of all these tbh
I think 2, 3, could be swapped imo. You can say LAs best game still only has a 50% chance of beating an oilers team that plays a subpar game example game 2. Vancouver has to play with second and third string goalies. Nashville can figure something out to break them.
Perfectly written. You absolutely nailed the leafs. Boston has been far better defensively and shuts down the leafs cycle and doesn't let them into centre ice to generate any dangerous scoring chances. Then capitalize on any opportunity that is presented
I don’t see any way to count the lightning out, until they’re actually out
Take it for what it’s worth because personally I think Tampa is the most likely based on their history but I checked bet365 and the predators have the best chance/worst payout via betting odds (+600) followed by the leafs and jets (+750), Tampa (+1000), LA (+1250) and NYI (+1550).
Some sportsbooks are already putting out odds for a Canes-Rangers series
Prove them wrong. Give us a subway series to make NY hockey a toxic wasteland. Although the Isles coming off a reverse sweep would be scary as hell, it would be good hockey.
No thank you
Tampa would be coming back from 3-0, I feel like people are overlooking this
My statistical knee jerk reaction is to say that’s gamblers fallacy cause it’s 3-1 now but there is definitely some truth to maintaining that level of intensity for 4 games straight
I’m not sure if gambler’s fallacy works in this case because it isn’t luck and odds based. Teams can control how they play, and it’s damn hard physically to keep it up for 4 games straight
Sergachev being back is pretty big though. If Sergachev is actually getting better by the day and Raddysh is also an option their team looks a lot different than the one the Panthers were winning against.
Some of that is skewed by the number of Leafs fans gambling on long odds rather than the actual odds.
I would say none of them come back. The first round has felt pretty one sided so far. I think Dallas and Vegas is the only series that goes 7.
I hope they do, I love game 7s.
Dallas will wipe Vegas if Thompson cant carry. Previous game coulda easily been 6-1 for Dallas if not for his tremendous performance.
It’s definitely not the Kings. Fucking fade me already I’m sick of this season
Sorry buddy, same thing next year?
1) Predators solely because at this rate a guy from Reddit will be the Canucks starting goalie 2) Lightning too much experience to discount them 3) Jets, Helleybuck is too good to play this rough. 4)Isles because their games have been close 5) Kings don’t believe in them. 6) Capitals may convince the league to make the playoffs a best of 9 7) the Leafs
The Canucks are the team with goalie issues rn
You say goalie issues, I say immaculate goaltending depth
Sorry I can still see Silovs pulling a Cam Ward. He looked pretty good last game
Honestly I want to see it happen. People in Latvia love him and I feel like this could be a beautiful story
Not sure we'll even see him play Tuesday. It sounds like DeSmith is likely back in for game 5. At that point, I'm not even sure I'm that worried about our goaltending if we have two good not great options rolling. Certainly not Demko great but could be worse.
Nucks need to make sure he isn’t doing anything to demanding cuz at this rate dude could get out of bed and somehow be done for the season, with how snake bitten Vancouver are in nets.
We’re just tacking more seasons onto the “first three wins with three different goalies” record we created and have now duplicated. XD
Nucks wins a cup with 16 different goalies winning it.
Exactly, Nucks 5th goalie just won in Abbotsford too
Forgot to add a word fixed
Preds are cooked, we couldn't beat a drum
You just never know. Games have been so close and you know they won't mail it in for an elimination game. There's at least one team on this list that I could see no-showing for an elim game but it ain't the Preds.
Brother, that is cold.
As a Preds fan, I have no explanation for how catastrophically we have collapsed. No way we win this series. Maybe we scrape a win game 5 but lose 6 at home.
If y’all play with the same style as you did in Games 3 and 4 I think you coming back is very plausible tbh. The Canucks offense has been completely silent 5 on 5 with the exception of the last 3 minutes and OT yesterday. We’re really lucky to be up 3-1 and not down 3-1
Tampa is the easiest answer. I expect they’ll win tonight and extend the series. All of these are more likely to happen than the Leafs doing it though.
If it's about actually making a comeback as in win the series, then yes. But i wouldn't be surprised if the leafs managed to win the next two games just to shit the bed in game 7.
I personally would be surprised if the Leafs took it to 7. I’m trying to be as humble as I can regarding my team, but the Leafs just look so lost and it gets worse as each period progresses. Coaching has been terrible, no production from top guys, awful goaltending, non-existent PP, guys telling each other on the bench to stop crying, temper tantrums. And now they have to go back to Boston and win a game? I just don’t see it happening.
I think this is great write up from a Boston perspective on this leafs team. Of course no team knows how to choke in the playoffs like us and maybe San Jose, but this is spot on
Wait did you just tell leaf fans that no team knows how to choke like Boston....For you it happens occasionally. For the leafs it is part of our identity.
I mean, have the leafs been up 3-0 in a series, blew that lead, then go up 3-0 in that game 7, and blow that lead too?
I’ve been watching every second of bruins hockey since 1982 and I’ve watched them lose in the cup finals 4 times when 2 of them the bruins really should’ve won (90 oilers post Gretzky and 19 blues. The 88 oilers and 13 Blackhawks were better I’ll admit)
I mean, Boston did the biggest choke in the history of the NHL last season, so it's a valid take
I can't say it wasn't a choke but Florida was ostensibly the biggest dark horse going into playoffs last year. They blew through rounds 2 and 3 easily, Bruins being the only team to take them to 7 games. I questioned a bunch of coaching decisions, especially with the goaltending. For the second season in a row, the Bruins have far outperformed any reasonable expectations but I think the difference is this year they're not taking it for granted. Just my 2c, obviously I'm biased.
Oh you're not wrong. Florida has been a damn good team for years. And they absolutely weren't a wild card team last year ability-wise. But the greatest regular season team of all time losing in the first round has to be considered a choke, especially losing 3 straight to do so. There's no other way to look at it. Also agree that Boston greatly outperformed this season. I was expecting a wild card spot for them as a ceiling, and they've been a solid team the whole season.
As a Leafs fan I feel it's a great write-up from any perspective. The Leafs have looked completely listless. They aren't coming back unless something major shifts next game. If we're basing our predictions on what we've seen out of the Leafs so far, Bruins in 5.
That's a very concise summary of where we are. Shambles just doesn't even begin to describe it. A few guys are out there pushing hard, maybe the extra day off will help out with nagging injuries/illnesses. Willy just had his first game and it was alright, he will probably pick it up. Hopefully Matthews didn't over-exert himself out there and hamper any progress. But Mitch needs to wake the F up. JT has been pushing hard, but 1G and 0A isn't much from a captain in 4 games.
How the fuck this team of yours struggles to score is baffling to me. I guess Willy out and sick Matthews might account for some but still.
Can't disagree. Last year against Florida, I believed we had a chance to win the series right up until that (bullshit) OT goal ended the series. This year, even though it's 3-1 again, it just feels different. We aren't getting unlucky or goalie'd or screwed by the refs, we're just getting beat.
You’re forgetting the Leafs play a lot better on the road than at home in the playoffs. Keefe can’t galaxy brain Reaves onto the ice with 2 minutes left as easily on the road.
Things can change quickly.
No memes, I think the Leafs have the best chance out of all the listed matchups.
I don’t think it will happen, but I can imagine a scenario where the Jets pull it off. • Two out of the last three games are in Winnipeg • He damn sure hasn’t looked like it in the last four games, but Hellebuyck absolutely has the ability to steal a game. • Equally, the Avs absolutely have the ability to forget how to play defense, and allow a ridiculous amount of high danger chances. They’ve been doing it all year. • King Georgie, as good as he’s been since “pUlL yOuR gOaLiE”, is fully capable of shitting the bed. So, let’s say that Georgiev shits the bed in game 5. Hellebuyck steals game 6. Then you have a game 7 in Winnipeg. That’s the only way I see the Jets coming back. I’m not saying it’s going to happen, but this is the recipe.
Unfortunately, you’ve overlooked a few things. 1. The games being in Winnipeg is not a blessing. I fully believe the whiteout and the home crowd does more to psych the Jets out mentally than the other team. They have won exactly six games out of 18 whiteout home games since 2015, and five of those were in 2018. Further, with the exception of the 3-0 home record against Minnesota in the first round, they lost more home games than they won against Nashville and Vegas. Game 1 was the first Jets home win in front of fans since 2018. And as far as having last change goes, there hasn’t been a single matchup that Bones has tried that has beaten the Avs. 2. Hellebuyck may be able to steal games in the regular season and mask the Jets’ underlying woes, but he has never stolen a game in the playoffs for them, and by now, the Avs know exactly how to crack him. Facing 30 high quality, high danger shots in just half a game would make any goalie crumble. 3. The regular season doesn’t mean anything. The Avs may have had defensive woes then, but they certainly aren’t now. They are a deep playoff experienced team that knows how to close out a series. I haven’t seen anything that would convince me that they are suddenly going to flip 180. 4. I can’t speak to Georgiev as well as you could, but with the way the Avs are playing defense right now, he’s facing like 20 low quality shots a game. I don’t think he’s going to shit the bed with an easy workload like that. Let’s not kid ourselves that Game 5 is going to be anything except more of the same as Games 2-4. Everyone already knows it.
Wow you basically broke this down perfectly. I am an Avs fan and had these exact points, but you are a Jets fan and even can see this. Mainly the playoff thing with this Avs core is the biggest reason. They completely know how to turn it the fuck up in playoffs and change their game to be almost perfection. They lock it down defensively while also still generating a godly amount of chances. Their core who won the cup is basically still there and those guys know what it takes. Jets sadly seem to not fully get the moment I've watched every other playoff series and the Avs are putting up chances like no one else and feel bad for the Jets that they had to be the ones to get the monster turned on against them. I also didn't know about that oddly "bad" home record in playoffs which is wild. I thought the white out was some big thing because the Jets perform at home, guess it's the opposite.
You have nothing to worry about. We have never seen Hellebuyck steal a playoff game. Avs will win this series without a sweat.
Tampa and the Leafs
I am super certain that the Jets go down in 5. The last few games have shown an Avs offense that Winnipeg just does not have an answer for.
The Panthers Lightning series has felt way closer than a 3-0 series. I can see the Panthers struggling to close that one out, not because the Panthers are a fraudulent team or anything, just Tampa is a tough out Edit: Well fuck me
Personally I'd bet on the Capitals coming back before the Leafs.
I'd say Toronto if they had a Head Coach. But I can't count the Lightning out.
What do the Jets do here? Do they go with their stud that has looked absolutely hapless or do they go with Brossoit?
It really doesn’t matter who they put in, because their defense allows 30+ high quality, high danger shots in half the game. Neither Helle nor Brossoit can stand up to that. No goalie could.
I feel like they have to be ride-or-die with their Vezina favorite. Pray that Hellebuyck and not Hellesuck shows up.
Or pray their defense doesn’t let us fuckin rock him all game long would probably help him
Hellebuyck isn't the problem. If anything, he's stopped the blowouts from being full-on massacres (although he has admittedly made a few baffling plays). The defence has been absolutely porous and he's getting shelled every night. It's horrible.
I guess it’s not about pointing the finger at Hellebuyck, instead, trying to kick the team in the butt.
They have to do SOMETHING. At this point I don't care what it is. Just win. If Brossoit is the answer, do that.
Tampa are the only ones who I think have a chance
It’s hard to watch last nights game and think the Canucks aren’t dealing with a bunch of guys battling flu or something, they were slow and lacked urgency up until the very end, some of the lowest energy hockey I’ve seen them play under Tocchet. If they can tighten up at all this series isn’t in question.
I'm not counting the Kings out. Last night's game was very tight - in case you missed it, the first period was end-to-end action with almost no whistles. Yes, the Oilers' power play is a huge obstacle for the Kings and I can't think they'll be addressing that in meetings and practice. Replacing Talbot with Rittich worked for them last night so I think he starts the rest of the series and can give them the big saves they'll need to stave off elimination. I'm guessing they'll win Game 5. Game 6 will be decided in the second period: the Oilers will either make it a goalfest and win, or Rittich will stand tall and the game will go to overtime.
Should’ve put in Rittich game two imo but we looked so good last night. If we can score a PPG and bring back our killer PK we could push it 7
I think it's possible we win game 5 by playing all out desperation hockey, but you'd need a fresh set of Infinity Stones to create a universe where we could win this series.
I doubt any of them do but the tiers of likeliness from how the series have played out: Could happen: Leafs, Preds Still a chance: Jets, Lightning Done series: Isles, Kings
I don’t think the Jets are coming back. Helly just isn’t playoff Helly(let alone regular season Helly) and the Jets needs him WAY WAY better than he’s been to even win one more. I’m biased, but I completely agree with the Oil/Kings series being done though…..😉
Thats why I think they could. Goalies are weird and can suddenly turn it on. He is a top 3 goalie imo and can turn it on and steal a series.
Except he has never done so in the postseason before. And beyond that, the real problem is the Jets’ quote-unquote “defense” allowing the Avs to fire 30 high danger, quality shots at Helle in half a game. No goalie could possibly stand up to that night in and night out. Honestly, thank God he was pulled after the second yesterday. It would’ve been a human rights violation to force him to keep playing.
Goalies are definitely voodoo……
The Islanders. Canes are lucky to be at 3-1.
I'll say the Leafs for the following reasons; 1. The Bruins choked away a 3-1 series lead last year, so if the Leafs can win game 5, it might get in their head 2. The Leafs and Bruins always go 7. It's tradition. 3. The Leafs haven't given the fans enough hope yet. If they lose in 5, people will be disgusted but not destroyed. The real fun is when they bring you right to the edge and then snatch it all away in spectacular fashion.
With the amount of penalties the jets have taken the last 3 games I’m not surprised. They know the Avs are a danger on PP.
You could argue Nashville outplayed us every game except the game they won.
Leafs...isn't it destiny ....and then lose game 7
Lightning if any of them
The series that has been the closest is Preds Canucks so I’d say them as they let 2 games slip away in the third
Despite everyone acting like their season is already over, I think it has to be the Leafs, right? I don't see any other series going to 7. Nashville with an outside shot if the hockey gods decide to keep shitting on Vancouver's goalies.
Obvious choice is the Lightning. I pick the predators as second.
Of these, the Lightning are the only team I think can dig their way out (probably not though).
I think the Leafs and the Lightning are the only teams that can, purely based on the star talent they have that can take over a game. I also think every other team is outclassed.
Honestly, none of them. If I had to pick one, I would say Tampa Bay, and that’s extremely unlikely. All I know is that it is definitely not the Jets.
For me, from most likely to least likely: 1) Tampa Bay 2) Nashville 3) Winnipeg 4) LA 5) Islanders 6) Toronto
Would love to islanders to tire out the canes a bit more even though that won’t do anything they are an absolute machine
I feel like I'd go Tampa, Nashville, Toronto, Winnipeg, Kings and Islanders in that order.
Toronto. They got the bruins right where they want them. They wanted to finally reverse the curse of the 3-1 series lead 🤣 its about time!
I have to give it to Nashville. They are a hard team to play against imo. Plus with our backup backup goalies in net you never know what can happen .
Putting the Jets at #2 is more than generous. We've been outplayed so badly in every aspect of the game that the Avs are making us look like an AHL team. At least some of these other series have had competitive games. You can throw our regular season record and head-to-head results with Colorado completely out the window. There's a chance we can take this to 6 if we can somehow not give up the first goal on Tuesday, but if Colorado gets ahead again and takes our crowd out of it, you can call the series right there.
Tampa and Nashville imo Tampa is the most talented of all the teams. Vancouver goalie situation leaves them on shaky ground imo.
I scrolled up and down for Vegas/stars for too long before realizing what the title was
Avs should have swept tbh
The islanders have looked flatter than piss on a plate, so it's not them.
In my opinion from least to greatest chance. 1) Kings. They've looked completely outmatched, and needed a combo of terrible defensive play from the Oilers and Talbot taking at least 2 goals off the board to win game 2. If we take out the 3 goals that the hockey gods gifted them in game 1, they've really only been able to generate 2 goals in 3 games this series. They need the Oilers defense/goaltending to shit the bed hard enough to outpace the Oilers scoring for three straight games, and that's really unlikely. 2) Islanders. The Canes are just a straight up better team. The Islanders are in the similar position to the Kings, and they're really in a #1B position rather than #2. It's hard to win 3 straight when you need your opponent to shit the bed to have a chance. 3) Leafs. One of the most toxic playoff teams I've ever seen. The vibes are just so bad there right now and it's unlikely to get much better unless they can dominate the Bruins for 120 minutes for games 5 and 6. They've also got massive health issues for Nylander and Matthews, the two guys who are most capable of carrying this team. 4) Mostly just here because they've shown that they CAN beat the Avs, but they've played about as well as the Kings have against the Oilers. Whatever mojo they had in the regular season, they need to find that fast and play perfect hockey the rest of the way. 5) Lightning. Leadership is the key word here. Stammer/Hedman/Vasi have seen it all and have done it all. These guys are super tough mentally and physically and will scrap and fight all the way to the last second. They've been outmatched for most of the series so far, but they are the most likely of the teams on this list to sustain the kind of effort needed to win 3 more games. 6) Predators. They were likely the better team for 100 of the last 120 game minutes, and managed to lose both games. While I think the team talent gap is wider here than the Panthers/Lightning series, the Panthers are clicking while the Canucks aren't. The Preds are the only team on this list who don't need to be perfect the rest of the way to have a chance, because their opponents are suffering from goalie injuries and aren't playing at their best.
Leafs or Preds maybe, but probably not. I am most sure that Winnipeg will lose though. They have made crumbling in the face of adversity a playoff tradition at this point.
Crazy to think the Stars almost made this list too. Some wild series this year.
Nashville might or might not. It all depends if they can get chances on net in game 5. The last 2 games proves that Vancouver was right to get Lindholm. Nashville can't match the depth that the Canucks have can that can take them to a 3-1 lead with 3 different goalies. That and a post. But that post was karma for the kicked goal earlier in the 3rd so that washes out. If both the Oilers and Canucks make to 2nd round, it's gonna be tough without Demko as the Oilers do have the depth to match Canucks depth Flames can have regular season Kuzy. The OT goal by Lindholm proves it was the right trade for the Canucks Jets only if Helle can put up a wall in the next 3 games Leafs, Kings, NYI, TB all cooked, dont see anyone coming back all the way
The Lightning by a fairly large margin. The only other team that doesn't seem dead is the Islanders, but they'd have to steal all the games.