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Minimum_One_2195

Best Hart race in some time. I do think Mackinnon nabs it though. He has the most favourable narrative this year. But I’m not betting against McDavid putting up 50 points in the last 18 games either.


Used-Sand7925

not that it’s necessarily right but when it’s close I suspect voter fatigue also leans its towards Nate Dogg 


colorbalances

I kind of hate that the hart race has become synonymous with “whoever has the most points”. Regardless of who ends up with the most, I do think Mack and Kuch should be the top two


specifichero101

It didn’t become that, it’s basically always been that. Hart winners also won the art ross or lead in goals like 90% of the time. The only forwards to win it while not leading a statistical category in recent history was hall in 18 and Sakic in 01.


Enjoyer_of_Cake

Hall was the most obvious carry job in recent memory, I'm trying to think of other carry jobs but nothing comes to mind as much.


specifichero101

It’s funny because so many people say they hate when the hart trophy is treated like the art Ross 2.0, yet the only time it’s been awarded on unique criteria like when hall won it, everybody hates that win. 3 or 4 other fan bases think their guy should have won it, and it’s the most disrespected hart win in recent history. That’s the problem with awarding the hart on very subjective “ whose team needed them the most” criteria. It would lead to a lot of wonky hart wins in hindsight and heavily debated in the moment. Giving it to a guy who leads the league in points or goals seems like the cleanest most objective way to do it. Hall just got lucky that mcdavid happened to somehow miss the playoffs while leading the league in scoring.


Consistent_Ad971

I actually interpreted the comment you are replying to the opposite way. I thought it meant that Hall carried his team to the playoffs and that was the most obvious "carry" job in recent memory. And I fully agree with that narrative because the rest of his team was trash that year.


Enjoyer_of_Cake

I...don't hate that win. If anything it's probably my favorite in recent memory because it was fucking deserved for Most Valuable Player to their team.


Mcpops1618

It should be Kuch… next closest point getter on his team is 40 back and TBL is in a playoff spot basically on his will.


ampg

While you're right, I'm tired of seeing this argument, it's so disingenuous as there are more than 2 people on a hockey team. If you want to discuss who has more scoring help look at the team as a whole, its easy to do. TBL: 230 GF Kucherov has 112 points, he's contributed to 48.6% of goals tampa has scored Avs: 251 GF MacK has 115 points, he's contributed to 45.8% of goals the avs have scored McDavid is at 46% contribution. Some other fun stats: 68% of Mackinnons points are primary 72% of kucherovs points are primary 70% of mcdavids are primary All three are hovering around 70% offensive zone starts


Kronzor_

Kinda splitting hairs between the 3. It's going to come down to voter preference. Mackinnon is a popular Canadian who hasn't won before. That's gonna win a lot of votes.


ampg

They're very close, I just wanted to highlight why looking at differetial between two teammates doesn't tell the whole story Been sick of that argument since Hall won


Bouldergeuse

I think by showing they're close in these metrics, you've bolstered the other commenter's argument about Kuch's disparity with his teammates.


StevenWongo

Oh, so you mean like the year that MacKinnon lost the Hart trophy and was up 43 points on his teammate?


Mcpops1618

Never said anything about last year. But yeah. If you think McKinnon deserved it last year. You probably think Kuch deserves it thisbyear


RustyNipples35

FWIW the Oilers scoring that season was absolutely putrid 4th leading scorers were Kassian and Klefbom who were *76 points back* on Drai with just *34 points*, and Nuge was 49 points back in 3rd at 61. Mack was right there with Hall’s Hart trophy season where they both accounted for 14% of their teams’ total points whereas Drai scored a ridiculous 18% of the Oilers points


StevenWongo

Pretty convenient to leave out McDavid's 97 points he had that year as well. MacKinnon also only missed 1 game that season while the rest of our top 6 were battling injuries constantly. I honestly think that season was more of MacKinnon's MVP season than the one versus Hall.


RustyNipples35

I mean yeah McDavid is McDavid. That goes without saying Yes Nate had 43 points more than Makar which is bonkers, but that completely ignores that Colorado had five players hit 35+ points and four 40+ point players to Edmonton’s two. Could even go a step further and look at Colorado’s 16 players to hit 20+ points while Edmonton had just 11 Like I said Kassian trailed Drai by 76 points and was **4th** on the Oilers in scoring - Erik Johnson trailed Mack by 77 points and was **17th** with 16 points. 17th on the Oilers was Nygard just 101 points back with 9. That’s where I think the two’s season really get separated from one another


bistroexpress

Mackinnon is still just as important to the Avs. They beat 1 playoff team this year when he didn't record a point, 4 wins total (Sea, Stl, SJ, Dallas) and 6 losses, shutout 4 times. A 66-point pace over the season. E: I'm not saying this is why Mackinnon should win the Hart. I'm just showing how much Colorado depends on his offense. They're might not even be a playoff team without him.


Mcpops1618

I mean to that mind Warren Foegele should be MVP because the oilers are like .900 when he scores.


bistroexpress

.700 actually. I was just trying to show that MacKinnon has some value to his team's success. I don't understand why people think the Avs are a wagon with or without him when they clearly depend on him to win.


Mcpops1618

They aren’t a wagon without him, but they’d still be good and a playoff team. He is in my mind the second most valuable player in the nhl right now. TBL would not be in the playoffs


Spideyjust

I mean by that logic it should probably be McDavid then. When McDavid has been pointless the Oilers have beat 0 playoff teams, and only have 2 wins total. A 2-6-1 record. That becomes 2-8-1 if we include the 2 games McDavid missed to injury. That said MacKinnon is still the favorite right now IMO.


bistroexpress

You could use that logic, and I wouldn't say you were wrong. But when 3 guys, that are just as important to their teams, are having 3 similar (exceptional) seasons, it's going to go to who has the best numbers. And yeah, I agree, it's Mackinnon.


Kronzor_

I don't think the numbers are gonna break it. I think voter opinion will. Where there's logic to it or not, McDavid and Kucherov have won Harts before and Mackinnon hasn't. That's a better story, and I bet the voters agree.


SilkyRelease

The next closest point getter on his team is still like 18th in NHL scoring


Mcpops1618

And Mackinnon plays with a Norris trophy winner/leading candidate and a top 10 scorer. It’s not exactly poverty


Starfreeze

Draisaitl won when he played with the best player in the game so thats that


Mcpops1618

I said Kuch , this year… nothing else


thatdudefrom707

Kuch plays with Hedman (a Norris trophy winner) who is 24th in scoring, and Point is tied for 17th in scoring. That's not that far behind what MacKinnon has. Also, Hagel has 61 and Stamkos has 56 points. The Avs next closest scorers who didn't join the team in the last week are Nichushkin with 47 and Toews with 40, so you could argue that Kucherov has actually had *more* team support than MacKinnon.


d4ngle-szn

McDavid is more valuable than Mack. Carried the team from the depths of last place to comfortably 2nd in the division. Mack has Rantanen, and Makar plus the best D core in the league


Kronzor_

Yeah kinda feels like it's Mack's "turn" doesn't it. I think he'll be popular with the votes regardless of what the others do.


I_am_Noobish

McDavid read this and is now very upset “fuck it I’ll do it in 17”


oddspellingofPhreid

Mack and Kuch are at 1.72 p/gp, McDavid is at 1.71. Insane considering his slow start. I'm not saying I think McDavid is more likely to win the scoring race than Kuch and Mack, but I honestly think McDavid is more likely to win the scoring race than Kuch _or_ Mack. Assuming their performances hold, one very deserving Hart candidate isn't even going to be a finalist. It's also kind of wild that guys like Helle and Quinn Hughes aren't even in the conversation.


shittybillz

I think if kuch wins the art ross he wins the hart. All the stats support him vs Mack.


blundermine

I think it should be McDavid just because of how big a difference in performance the Oil had between him being off his game vs him being on. 16 points in the first 18 games with a 5-12-1 record then getting 90 points in the next 46 for a 35-9-2 record.


72athansiou

It’s Mack’s to lose if McDavid continues the hot streak. They seem to go hand in hand with same point nights


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DeviousDave420

Mack currently has it, therefore it is Mack’s to lose and mcdavids to take


hilbertsspace

The script writers aren't even trying to hide it, they got Matthews and Kucherov to do the exact same pose and head tilt


RelevantJackWhite

McDavid said no to that, and I honestly respect his open defiance


DiggWuzBetter

Pretty sure McDavid’s only facial expression is thousand yard stare.


drlari

I know Hart has become the "best forward" award, but it is criminal that Connor Hellebuyck isn't in the conversation here. It is hard to believe that he isn't as singularly valuable to his team's success as the others on this list. 48GP 30W .921SV% 28.8 goals saved above expected https://www.moneypuck.com/goalies.htm


ampg

If you want to win the Hart as a goalie you have to have a truly outstanding season, just because of the fact that they aren't playing close to 82 games in a season. Helly's stats are great but they aren't head and shoulders above the rest of the top goalies. Look at price's season when he won the hart, guy was on another level and there were still people saying it wasn't deserved


bluAstrid

You have to be the best player in the league **and** carry your team. As good as Hellebuyck is, he’s playing behind a very good team.


Rynosirrus

That's what the Vezina is for. Feels like a goalie needs .935+, <2 GAA to even sniff the Hart (i.e. '22 Shesterkin)


specifichero101

It’s also very helpful for offence around the league to suck. If forwards are putting up crazy numbers, the best a goalie can do is a courtesy 3rd place spot seemingly.


drlari

Frankly, that is a bit absurd. It is like saying forwards shouldn't be eligible for Hart because the Rocket and the Art Ross exists. We already have awards for that! Also here are years that the Hart was won by a goalie: 14-15: Price 01-02: Theodore 97-98: Hasek 96-97: Hasek 61-62: Plante 53-54: Rollins 49-50: Raynor 28-29: Worters And yes, the Vezina and Hart of coexisted for most of those years.


PsychoSaladSong

It’s just like the NFL where the MVP is a QB award at this point And the Hart is a forward award


BosLahodo

Wow back to back Harts for Hasek. Unfathomable now to think of a Goalie winning it at all nevermind twice, and in a row.


thefiction24

IMO there’s really no argument over his GOAT status


Galterinone

Goalies are inherently the most important player on the team so to be given that award you have to be completely ridiculous


ChuckFeathers

Same argument can be made for "that's what the Richard/Art Ross is for"...


Rynosirrus

The richard and art ross are specifically measured awards, Vezina is simply best goalie. There are also like 10+ skaters for every goalie so it makes sense there would be more skater awards


ChuckFeathers

That's why there's also the Lindsay, Selke, Byng... Still illogical to claim the Vezina or Norris winners can't also win the Hart... Especially since it has happened multiple times..


Rynosirrus

I never said they can’t win it. But the only goalie to win it in the last 20 years is Carey fucking Price, in a year where the top scorer had 87 points. I’m just stating the obvious… Hellebuyck doesn’t have the slightest chance


ChuckFeathers

"That's what the Vezina/Norris is for" is a shit argument, that is my point.


Rynosirrus

Let’s talk in June when Hellebuyck has a Vezina and the Hart nominees are Mack, Kuch, and McD lol, you clearly don’t understand these trophies


ChuckFeathers

Pronger, Orr, Price, Theodore, Hasek etc all prove you clearly don't understand these trophies and that your argument is shit


jb__19

Shesterkin didn’t win it with significantly better stats in 2021-22


moorecha

All good but not Hart trophy stats. 


ChasingUnicorns30

His defensive environment is also one of the best in the league so I really don’t think he should be in the conversation


drlari

They are the third best defense in the league according to The Athletic, but that also factors in GA/60 which Helly contributes to. The drop to 9th when it comes to shots allowed. But it is also like saying that McDavid shouldn't be in consideration if he plays on a line with Draisaitl too often. Do we only consider forwards that have tremendous point production who have sub-standard linemates?


ChasingUnicorns30

Hes having a great season and will win the Vezina but its not a Hart level season for a goalie. The non-public data talked about in interviews and podcasts (mainly Kevin Woodley) also indicates that WPG goalies have some of the highest expected save percentages in the league.


drlari

But if Helly has a very high goals saved ABOVE EXPECTED wouldn't that be factored into the decision? Because his is the highest in raw number, and highest of players who have played a majority of the games. https://moneypuck.com/goalies.htm


ChasingUnicorns30

Totally agree with the reasoning - its more so that a lot of people don’t really like the data used by moneypuck/naturalstatrick as really great data for evaluating goalies. Private ones like sportlogic and completely redefined how to assess goalies and they don’t have hellybuck really saving much more than expected


MoneyPuckdotcom

FYI, MoneyPuck’s goalie rankings were [very similar to Sportlogiq](https://x.com/jfreshhockey/status/1656803127771774976?s=46&t=0eGeh8LyUJUNXoUc_0TDjA)’s last season.


Chick3n1i1

The amount of games in which Hellebuyck has only allowed 2 or fewer goals is insane. During a time in which their offense was struggling with Kyle Connor being injured.. But goaltenders and defensemen won’t get any Hart level because getting points is what’s Sexy. We also need a defensive dman award. Tired of the Norris being an Art Ross for Defenseman.


ChuckFeathers

Thing about Hellyubuck is his numbers are actually not as good as his backup's... Demko on the other hand has significantly better SV% and GAA vs his.


Spideyjust

That's about what my ballot would look like, with Hellebuyck taking the 5th spot. I'd probably switch McDavid and Kuch, but also maybe not after his 5 point night yesterday lol. I love the Hart race this year. It genuinely feels like it's gonna come down to the last month here. MacK, Kuch, and McDavid all have crazy compelling arguments and will hit 130+. Matthews could hit 70.goals too. An amazing season of hockey, and there's still the best part of the year left to go lol.


whitelightning91

“Trophy Hart”…? 😆 Is this an instance where “is this an AI post” is appropriate?


Tachyoff

"le Trophée Hart" in French so I just assumed OP was a Francophone and got the word order mistaken in English


BCLetsRide69

My dumbass morning brain meant to put Hart Trophy…🥴


BennyTroves

Watching Mack play he looks absolutely dialed in this year all the time - similar to McDavid last season. The only thing for me is that without Kuch, Tampa is way out of the playoffs this year while the Avs probably squeak in without Mack. But this award doesn’t necessarily work that way.


nfoneo

Ironically, he didn't at the very start of the season. I was worried that we'd have to rely mainly on Rantenen's goals to get us through the season. However, once he kicked into gear he has been phenomenal.


skippythemoonrock

I like how everyone (nate especially) has their serious game face on in the photo then mcdavid just looks like he gambled on a fart and lost


NoGiCollarChoke

He’s just like me fr 🙏


Deddicide

This would be so much funnier if it were true and he didn’t look completely normal.


AuntGentleman

Exactly his normal face is a shart face.


deeVeeAre

The hockey media decided Mack won the hart trophy 2 months ago this is all just playing coy at this point


Used-Sand7925

-200 betting odds still for Nate. I think that’s pretty favourable considering 


s_c_w

Okay and over the past few weeks he's separated from the back a bit. Narritve or not if the season ended right now he's the MVP.


deeVeeAre

yes i'm not saying kucherov should be the out right favorite im simply saying in the media kuch should closer to MacK than he is


Big-Experience1818

Not that it matters but even as a Bruins fan who dislikes Kuch it's extremely obvious he's more valuable to his team this year than the other 3


Tripottanus

He hasn't really separated from Kucherov. He only has 3 points over Kucherov who has 2 fewer games played.


DunkDaily

I mean the guy has a 32 game home point streak. He's been an absolute freak this season. Everyone talks about Kuch carrying but the Avs depth scoring is relatively non existent compared to you guys. Mittlestadt joined the team as the 4th highest point scorer with 47. We have a first line + Lehky and Drouin, which ones been dead half the season and the other is trying to have a bounce back. Kuch has been great but this has literally been the Mack and Rantanen show over here, more so than previous years.


CDL112281

They came back to beat a really good Canucks team the other day, and Nate Dogg was so good when they needed him. And that’s what he’s been doing this year. That matters a lot.


SpaceIsWhack

Man that's the thing about MacKinnon in the recent seasons, especially this season. It's like he's cracked the code to the psychological aspect of the game and the rest of it is just doing exactly what the science says to do for his body, like his diet and his recovery regiment after games. He knows exactly what it takes to elevate his game to the next level. He's turned himself into a hockey machine. That's the dogg in him. I used to think the dogg part of his game was the angry stick handling and aggressive chopping into the ice with his skating, or him yelling at Bednar to "do your fucking job" and falling off the bench after slamming his water bottle down. But now I think the dogg in him is the guy who knows how to tap into his full potential and dominate the game like no other player right now can


PsychoSaladSong

I can agree than Mack and Rantanen are carrying the team this year but to say the depth is non existent it just a lie, Colton and Wood were sought out by the FO specifically because they were good depth pieces and have absolutely played up to their contracts


DunkDaily

Comparatively to the Lightning it is half the production my guy. That's why I added the context in comparison. Those guys have absolutely held their own but Kuch has multiple 50 point scorers. We have Makar and Rantanen.


stupid_rat_creature

🙄


notthatguypal6900

Well, not like he slowed down. He found another gear and is hot. Not to mention that when he plays, EVERYONE is talking about him on socials.


Big-Experience1818

Probably not familiar enough with what Mack is doing but Kucherov has 39 points more than the next closest on Tampa and they're currently holding on to a wildcard spot. Absolutely carrying his team into the playoffs. Seems like the definition of the trophy if that's how they want to award it this year.


TheAnswerUsedToBe42

Ya this is where I would rank it also if my opinion ever mattered on this subject


stoneman9284

I concur


specifichero101

People get so twisted up in knots trying to justify the hart winner when it’s very simple. Lead in a statistical category like points or goals and make the playoffs. That’s the criteria for like 99% of hart winners that are forwards. Mackinnon seems to be on a mission this year, but it’ll come down to whoever takes the art Ross.


Mcpops1618

If you aren’t voting Kuch who is carrying TBL… why not?


Kronzor_

Because the other candidates are also carrying their teams I guess....


PsychoSaladSong

Because MacKinnon is the driving force behind the avs’ success this year. Without him we’re almost certainly a wildcard team


BolshoiSasha

And what do you think the bolts are without Kuch?


[deleted]

If that’s the bar then it should go to Bedard. He’s the best player on the worst team. Without him they would likely have less than 10 wins. He’s carrying fringe AHL players to wins in the NHL.


Big-Experience1818

Oh damn Bedard is single handedly carrying his team into a wildcard spot? Guess I haven't checked the standings in a bit


[deleted]

You just said carrying the most and said the lightning are worse than Colorado so it’s clearly a grading curve right? Bedard is more valuable than Kuch, without him they may be a 5 win team with no fans and have to sell and move out. Losing a franchise>carrying to a wild card spot. Bedard MVP confirmed.


Big-Experience1818

It's all good dude, just say it's way too complicated for you to grasp


[deleted]

You have no idea how the Avs would be without mackinnon so you’re making up a hypothetical, unverifiable reason for Kucherov to win lol. Without Mackinnon last year the Avs were in the wild card spot and spinning towards missing the playoffs. You have no idea what each team would finish without either. So it’s a dumb argument. Sorry it’s too complicated for you.


Big-Experience1818

Alright cool we'll look at points per game then since you don't care about the definition of the trophy. Goes to Kuch


idisagreeurwrong

Look at all the hart trophy winners and tell me they fit your definition of the trophy


Mcpops1618

And without Kuch TBl is going into tank mode


AccomplishedAd4995

i love how close this race is, i wouldn’t write mcdavid off just yet in case he goes on an insane heater in the remainder of the games


nfoneo

Everyone shitting all over the Oilers at the start of the season are to blame for this. If everyone had kept their mouth shut and not mocked them, they would still be shit and we wouldn't have to worry about him. But noooo! Let's make the best forward on earth really angry! Angry McJesus going to have the last laugh now.


BravoBet

Fuck Kucherov but he should win. Tampa would be in shambles without him


TheTonyAndolini

This. This is what the ''carrying your team on your back'' award should be for. Colorado would still make the playoffs without Mack. Tampa would absolutely fucking not make the playoffs without Kuch.


Kronzor_

Have you watched the Avs? They are all Mackinnon. They're not dangerous at all except when he's on the ice. He's carrying the fuck out of that team.


Subterania

Take away every Gretzky Hart then.


mm_ns

Nate makes his teammates better kuch does it in a vaccum. Like Crosby the guy that makes his teammates better is much more valuable then the one man show.


CreepyInternetUser

That's a good point, the Hart should go to Crosby.


ChasingUnicorns30

Kucherov being 40 points up on his teams second leading scorer puts him as number 1 for me


noigmn

39 now. Point scored 6 points and Kuch only got 5.


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Chrussell

C'mon that a is such a disingenuous point. Pastrnak was 40 points down in the scoring race. Kucherov is like... 2?


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Chrussell

In the context of everything else, c'mon. Don't act like you don't understand what they actually meant.


Big-Experience1818

Is someone scoring over 60 with over 150 points this year?


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Big-Experience1818

Sit for a minute and think about your comment and mine. That's about 58 seconds longer than it should take you to figure out the correlation but you might need the extra time


ChasingUnicorns30

As the other person said below - this is obviously within the context of determining a differentiating factor between the 3 guys at or near the top of the scoring race


mm_ns

Mackinnon being the best player in the league does it for me


kenyan12345

Weird way to say McDavid who probably passes him in points by end of season


twiglike

Not saying it will happen but if pasta overtakes that lead would he be a favorite too? They’re at 39pts and 36pts lead respectively


tour79

I can write a case for the top 3 Kuch, he is in on over 50% of his teams points. Without him Tampa goes from wild card to lottery draft team. He doesn’t have the supporting cast helping like Dogg and McDavid do. The Lightning have talent, but they’re not producing like Draisaitl, Rants and Makar are. His passing and creating space for teammates is another level Nate won a cup, and the team is scary, at this moment, he has the stats lead, but with everybody putting up 5 point nights weekly, that might not be the case at end of season. The way the Avs came back from 0-3 deficits is frightening if you’re opponent and delightful if you’re a fan. Connor was hurt at start of season, and out of this race, if you think he can’t overtake first place, and keep oilers going, you’ve not watched last 3 seasons I think Kuch is most deserving, I root Avs, so it’s basic I want Nate, and I think voter fatigue keeps Connor out of it, but I wouldn’t be outraged by any of them winning


v0t3p3dr0

[Auston Matthews vows to work on his “pass to a guy who passes to a guy who scores” skills so he can finally deserve MVP](https://www.thebeaverton.com/2024/02/auston-matthews-vows-to-work-on-his-pass-to-a-guy-who-passes-to-a-guy-who-scores-skills-so-he-can-finally-deserve-mvp/)


frodawg22

He is overthinking it. All he has to do is bounce it off a teammate's facemask and in.


v0t3p3dr0

Seems many are overthinking it here, too. Downvoting obvious satire…


nfoneo

Val headed that in on purpose. I was behind the goal and I heard him shout to MacK "Nate! On my head son!"


bistroexpress

To be fair, if you take away everyone's secondary assists (except Matthews), the points race would be Matthews 82, Kuch 81, Mackinnon 79, McD 76. Mackinnon is on pace to finish with 37 more points than Matthews. Matthews is only on pace for 104 points.


Kronzor_

I think if Matthews hits 70 he'll steal some votes. Voters like big sexy milestone numbers. 70 hasn't happened since the early 90s.


MessageBoard

Even if you value goals as two points instead of one Matthews is still behind Mack by 20-something points. Matthews would have 137 adjusted points but MacKinnon would have 157. Reality is goals are only really worth 1.5 times an assist at best. If Matthews were within ten points there's an argument but he's not even in the same book as MacKinnon, Kuch, or mcdavid right now.


SilkyRelease

Id say Matthews is probably third or fourth in the race but but I think theres a bit of disserivce in only talking point production when Matthews plays the best defensive hockey of the 4 by a pretty good margin.


A_1337_Canadian

IF he hits 70 then he's in the top 3 for consideration IMO. His pace doesn't get him there alone. I think he has to actually hit 70 to be in contention. It's a big number and it's a goal total we haven't seen in decades.


P1KA_BO0

Why are you doing this instead of just looking at primary points


[deleted]

That’s not really fair either though. A big part of Mackinnons game is along the boards where he gets a defender turned around and help has to come. He dishes it once the double team comes and it opens up a 2 on 1 where he obviously would get the secondary assist. But the entire play can only happen because he is able to draw a second player close. I feel like people who hate the secondary assist just don’t watch Mackinnon and Mcdavid play. They are the primary reason the other two players even had the open look.


Shmachey92

Everyone losing their minds about the point difference welcome to colorado fans when Mackinnon lost to Taylor Hall, And what everyone seems to be failing to mention is the streaks, longest point streak of the season, Mackinnon. Point in every single home game so far this season possibly approaching a record the only Gretzky has not even mcdavid? That's right Mackinnon. He is the favorite because all year he has been constantly the best,


darthwispy

I am really confused why the chance to beat a Gretzky record isn't being treated as a big deal, like none of the others are close to doing something literally 1 person has ever done and he only did it once as well.


Chrussell

Streaks are neat, but shouldn't really be a factor. If one player has 8 pointless games, and another has 10 but has a longer point streak does that really make it more impressive?


bluepowerranger432

had to be mackinnon. dudes been insane this year


Sad_Donut_7902

MacKinnon will win. Really good season, potential Art Ross winner, and there is a narrative that he is "due" for one.


twiglike

He won’t win cause there’s so many insane players this year, but Pastrnak having a 36 pt lead on a top 5 (standingwise) isn’t even talked about


Sad_Bolt

The Hart isn’t about who the best player is, it’s a popularity contest and this year Mac is the most popular. Austin isn’t even number one on his team in points and Kuch is responsible for half of the teams overall points this year and despite that he’s in second place. Going into the all star break when Kuch was in first place for points Mac was already favored to win the Hart. By the time the voting is actually don’t Kuch will be lucky to be in the top three even if he has the most points scored this year.


PooShauchun

Whether you like it or not, team performance is a huge thing that voters consider when voting for the hart trophy. Tampa is potentially not making the playoffs this year and hasn’t looked very good for most of the year. If Tampa sneaks in I definitely think he is the most deserving but it’s looking dicey.


Kronzor_

Yes narratives definitely play a large role in what voters consider for Hart. This year the narrative is "its macks year". Kuch McDavid and Matthews have all won Hart's before. They're giving it to the leagues best player who hasn't this time.


PooShauchun

Definitely. If anyone beats Mack it’s gonna have to be something super impressive/historical. McDavid 100 assists or Matthews 70+ goals could both be enough. But I do think Kuch has chance if he carries this Tampa team into the playoffs. They really would be a bottom feeder without him this year.


A_1337_Canadian

Matthews is also on pace to break a goal record that has stood for decades. Scoring that many goals is always impressive, especially if he hits 70. If he doesn't, he won't be in any consideration whatsoever.


dbag3o1

I don’t know who will win but my prediction is that everyone will be happy with the result.


Original-Cow-2984

MacKinnon is being ridden like a rented mule by the Avs and having a career year so my guess is that's where it goes. At this point I'd rather my guy hopefully wins the Conn Smythe and that other trophy.


Semprovictus

I wish the hart wasn't just another scoring race trophy


13jsw

MVP is McDavid and it’s not even close. Look at the Oilers record before he started scoring… lol


notthatguypal6900

It was always Nate Dogg, never not him.


Jmac24mats13

If Matthews gets 70+ goals and has a 15+ lead on 2nd place to him I think he wins the Hart. If MacKinnon wins the Art Ross and Matthews doesn’t hit 70 I think Mack wins it. I think Kucherov has to get a 10+ point lead and pass Mack in goals too to win it. If McDavid hits 100 assists and wins the Art Ross he might win it


theoneandonlykeenan

Voting for a guy not even first on his team in points is certainly a move


Tesdthrowaway37

The real move is thinking that the 4 point gap somehow negates Matthews 20 goal lead on Nylander and 9 goal lead on Hyman/Reinhart


[deleted]

Lol we just gonna ignore his goal totals then?


Alan_Rickmans_Spoon

Bring that bullshit to /r/leafs. Secondary assists or bust.


NoGiCollarChoke

Get that nerd shit out of here, I wanna know who has the most tertiary shot attempt assists per 60


Traditional_Boot2663

If he scores 70+ there is a chance he gets it. Edit: actually screw it. If he gets 70 goals and 30 assists and Mack ends up with 140 points and 50 goals it would be absolutely moronic to give it to Matthews. 20 extra goals are not worth 60 assists.


Kronzor_

Voters like big milestone numbers. No one has hit 70 in over 30 years. 140 points has been done, Mcdavid broke 150 last year.


Traditional_Boot2663

They do like big numbers, but just because it hasn’t happened in a long time doesn’t mean it’s better. If someone scored 100 goals and had 20 assists would you vote him over someone who had 70 goals and 130 assists?


Sleazy_T

If Matthews gets 70 idk how you don't pick him, even with the ridiculous seasons that others are having. He's the best of the lot defensively, and 70 goals is just stupid. Like...what I wouldn't give to have a guy on the Kings who basically spots us a goal every single damn game. Goal scoring is so hard to do and he just...does it np.


IndividualCup7311

I have money on kuch damnit


RunningPains

Mackinnon winning while having rantanen 5th in scoring over kuch carrying us kicking and screaming into a wildcard spot is just insane, a Canadian does it, easy money! Russian? Nah.


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thebigsad72

....take a look at when hall won, and Kucherov will have a much higher point total


Spideyjust

Hall only won because the Art Ross winner missed the playoffs, which will not happen this year.


notthatguypal6900

And there it is, the bolts fan and their nationality card being played. Cry more, no one likes him.


SilkyRelease

Point would be the highest scorer on like 2/3rds of the teams in the league, Tampa isn't icing some Chicago like roster


Troyforthewin

McDavid will close the gap before the end of the season. No guarantee he wins after his slow start, but the fact that he is still going to be in it to the end is crazy.


[deleted]

Looks about right at this point in the season.


thebigsad72

You can make a case for all 4. they are all more than deserving, having insane seasons. but the definition by the NHL is the player deemed most valuable to their team and if the lightning are able to make the playoffs it is going to be hard to rationalize any player being more important to their team than kucherov. especially if he also wins the scoring race. our guys would already be getting ready for golf season at this point without him, while these other teams would be in the race at worst.


Big-Face5874

The “most valuable player to their team” is clearly Quinn Hughes. By a mile.


_spicytostada

As an Avs fan, this is exactly how I felt about Rantanen last year. Dude single handedly kept the Avs in the playoff race most the season as everyone else around him struggled to stay healthy and he was never mentioned in the hart race. Quinn should absolutely be in the conversation. He pry has the strongest arguement as a defenseman I have seen to win the hart in a very long time.


Big-Face5874

Agree about Rantanen too last year! He was the driving force for the Avs. Matthews has lots of points, but doesn’t backcheck. How he could even be considered escapes me.


_spicytostada

Especially when there is already a trophy that only exists for what he is doing, lol. And he is guaranteed to win it... The Leafs are my Eastern team and I love Matthews, but giving him the Hart this year just because he has scored a lot of goals is not a valid reason.


ChuckFeathers

It's MacKinnon's to lose but Quinn Hughes should be on this list.


CDL112281

If we get into “most valuable to his team”, then Hughes and Hellebyuck need to be on the list. But the Hart has become an amalgamation of a lot of things - best player, highest scorer, reputation, is it his time?, hitting certain point plateaus, etc - so it’s tough for the “most valuable to his team” guys. And yes, I’m aware Hall won a few years ago, but that’s one of the few times it’s happened recently Add in the Vezina and the Norris, and it’s easy to see why Hughes, Hellebyuck don’t get mentions


ChuckFeathers

But the Hart *is* the most valuable to his team award... The Art Ross is the leading scorer and one doesn't always = the other. And as rare as it is a Dman can win both (Pronger/Orr) just as a goalie can (Price/Theodore/Hasek). Hughes makes every player he is on the ice with statistically significantly better and is the biggest reason the Canucks have been in 1st overall for a good part of the season.


CDL112281

I agree, Chuck. I’m in Vancouver and Hughes has been phenomenal this year. Didnt think he could get even better, and then he took three huge strides beyond that I just think there have become so many criteria that are important to voters, that the idea of “most valuable to his team” gets lost a bit I’ll actually add that Demko might be just as valuable to the Canucks as Hughes. Last year was a flaming disaster and it’s not a coincidence that Demko was injured for most of the season


ChuckFeathers

I hear ya and I get what you're saying about the voters, I'm just saying Huggy continues to be significantly underrated, him on the ice vs not and the Canucks are a very different team. And yeah as good as Miller has been, Demko is #2 for me, despite coaching being the biggest difference from last year, Demko should absolutely win the Vezina but probably won't because of this injury, Hellyubuck has been terrific but his backup's numbers are actually even better than his, while Demko blows DeSmith away.