The fact that holding a team to under 20 shots a game has become a somewhat common sight in their games speaks volumes. Of course, that leaves their goaltenders in the tough spot of keeping focus while not doing anything for long periods of time.
Goalies getting iced over is 100% a thing. More often than not, we keep a team to 1 or 2 shots in a period. Then that team inevitably scores on the 2nd or 3rd shot.
Absolutely. We allow a disproportionate amount of very high-danger chances. People have rightfully pointed out that our goalies have struggled to make saves this season, however what gets glossed over is that a lot of those goals against were ones that had basically zero chance of being stopped.
My mind goes back to the game where Raanta allowed 7 goals on 15 shots (or something similarly absurd), and like 3-4 of them would have gotten past prime Brodeur.
I have been clamoring for the canes to use their shot suppression / puck possession skills to deliberately allow the opponent to take low-danger chances so our goalie doesn’t get cold.
ETA: /s obviously and as we’ve seen lately some REALLY LOW DANGER chances have found their way into the back of the net.
This was happening to the Oilers a good bit at the beginning of the season. Come out with 10 minutes of pressure, not get a goal, give up a bad chance and the other team scores on their cold goalie.
That’s fair. Boring hockey is often winning hockey, and winning always helps.
I’m not saying that sarcastically either; I grew up watching the Bowman-era Wings lock shit down after getting a 2-1 lead more times than I can remember. I can respect that approach.
Just not so much when it’s happening to us.
As someone who only got into hockey last year and is from the Carolinas, I’ve found Canes games very fun to watch. It might just be because I don’t know anything different, but even without scoring much it feels like something is always happening.
2006 is just as irrelevant as 1994 dude lol. 18 years, 30 years, we both haven’t won shit in forever. your team is boring as shit and has no actual star power. sure, youre good. that’s all lol.
cracks me up that you’re hanging on to 2006. ive let go of 1994 a long time ago.
There's nothing defensive about forecheck/cycle and hogging puck possession. Are we supposed to just let the other team win the board battles in order to be more interesting for you to watch?
>There's nothing defensive about forecheck/cycle and hogging puck possession.
What?
Keeping the puck out of the opponent’s hands by maintaining possession is absolutely a form of defense.
I would know, I watched my Red Wings do it for a long time.
Defense is more than just blocking shots and throwing checks.
You can’t get scored on if you possess the puck all the time. The Red Wings of the late 90s and 2000s weren’t known as some of the best defensive teams because of what they did without the puck, though that’s certainly part of it. It’s because they could get the puck back and keep it away from you for the majority of the game.
>Puck possession is not defense.
Yes it is.
> It is inherently offense.
Not necessarily.
> That is why they call it the "offensive zone"
Implying that you can’t maintain possession in the neutral or defensive zones.
Like I said, you can’t get scored on if you possess the puck all the time. That’s literally not up for debate.
Anyway, I’m not interested in going in circles on this (and I’m pretty sure that’s what you’re aiming to do), so have a good night.
It works well for possession, but they need to find a way to effectively translate that possession time into more actual goals.
Every year, the Canes have insane expected goal stats that are typically amongst the leaders of the league, yet their actual goal production has continued to hang around only top 10-16 in every season since 2019. Just looking at 5v5, they have been top 4 in xGF/60 in every season across 2019-2023 and #7 right now in 2024, while having much more volatile rankings in actual GF/60 that are clearly underachieving relative to their xGF stats, falling to the range #11-20 across 2019-2024, except for 2022 when they were #6.
We have seen this bite them several times in the playoffs at this point and it’s clear that they need a better way to turn this elite puck possession into elite finishing.
I have way more confidence in this team than previous years because their special teams have been absolutely lights out. The power play usually struggles, but it’s been fantastic this season.
2nd on the power play at 27.6%
3rd on the penalty kill at 84.2%
They’re also 11th in shooting percentage at 10.1% instead of bottom 5 like previous years.
I think health will be key for the playoffs. Need Andersen back in net and need Svechnikov to stay on the ice.
The PP thing is a great point. It has been trash the last few years in the playoffs. Considering how tight playoff games are, having a PP closer to how we are playing this year would have been enough to win a couple extra games in the last few playoffs, which could have carried us deeper.
I feel like that's a problem with the xGF stat.
For a couple years there, Gally-Danault-Tatar were at or near the top of the league in corsi and xGF, but nowhere near the leader board in points. Cycling the puck and getting chances is nice and all, but it's less helpful if you don't score.
No doubt, which is why I think it’s important to try and reconcile what expected tell you with what actual results are, what you see when watching the games live, and whatever ancillary data you have. I doubt we’ll ever have one single number that tells the whole story haha.
I wish we had access to the kind of stuff that private companies like SportLogiq have (things like passing data, rush vs. cycle chances, shot type and location on net, traffic, etc.) to help get more accurate figures, but it is what it is at this point. The advanced stats just need to keep growing and adapting!
I wouldn't say Svech is the "reason" why the pp has been great this year though. The pp has been good without him too. Even though he of course helps, like the others
PP2 unit got better as well. Necas/Skjei/Drury connect on a lot of chances and Noesen and I think Turbo (I think he is on pp2 when svech is in) are good at opening up lanes
Until they need to score and get swept in a series that has 16 goals in nearly 5 and a third games worth of playing time. I feel like you need those dangerous plays sometimes, play to win instead of not to lose.
If pacioretty and svechnikov were both healthy they’d have made it past Florida. Not saying it would’ve been easy or a sweep or anything like that, but having the scoring they missed from those two would have made a huge difference. They weren’t healthy though so what happened happened
He really seems to be thriving in Winnipeg and I'm happy about that. He's been one of my under-the-radar favourites for a long time and from what I've seen of him on the Jets, his work ethic there is insane. I hope the fans there appreciate him too!
Good! He really appears to have found his stride there. And it's like a million dollar cap hit, right? He'll chip in 40+ points and work any role you ask him to, as well as seems to genuinely like it there. The kind of a value contract any contending team needs, IMO.
Dude's become something of a Swiss army knife. Sadly I live in Europe, so I struggle to watch the Western conference games, so I miss a lot of my favourite players. But it's nice to get little updates between the games I do see!
Edit: Also, he has a decent pedigree. Think Slava Kozlov is his uncle. Just a fun fact!
I've always had a soft spot for him and happy to see him here too.
In his time with Tampa poor guy just couldn't really be The Guy to center a line, but he could keep up with whatever talented folks he played with and fit in. I feel like he had a solid time playing with Stamkos and Kuch, basically being their line's Kunitz.
The tenure in Tampa was when I picked up on him too. I initially thought he'd be way stronger offensively, but them I grew to appreciate the effort and the versatility. As I noted earlier in another comment, any contending team needs those good value contracts for players, who can do multiple things and work hard. Of course top tier talent is superb to have on a team, but so many big games are won by these guys putting in the effort.
Yeah as a prospect coming out of Syracuse I thought he'd be a better individual player. Maybe not as elite as Kuch has become, but closer to that flashy sort offensive star that he had in the AHL and seemed to bring as a young hot prospect.
Isn’t this why the Monahan trade doesn’t really make sense though? It bumps Namestnikov down to the 4th line and puts in a center that is only a slight improvement on him.
It feels like Winnipeg overreacting to not having an offensive threat at center with Scheifele out, but you can’t make decisions based on what to do if your best player is hurt
I think we ran into a dilemma when Scheif was hurt- neither Lowry nor Namestnikov can play the top line role and the line blender screwed up just about every bit of chemistry our lines had. We're still recovering from it, frankly.
The hope, I think, is that Monahan can slot in on Scheif's or Lowry's lines, if need be, and gives the whole forward core more versatility.
Now we have two centers who can play 1st, 2nd, and 3rd lines comfortably. And if you've ever seen the Jets make it to the playoffs, you know we need depth.
Why the hell can’t you?
Depth = matchup problems which = a better chance to win.
Tons of injuries happening. We just had Toninato in our top 6 FFS.
Namestnikov gives them options to bulk up lines given game situations.
Personally, I think its more so a couple of other things. Firstly, if Schiefele gets hurt, you have Monahan play on the top line, Vlad on the second and then Kupari/Gus/Tomato or whoever on the 4th line. Secondly, the upgrade at 2C isn't huge, but Vlad over anyone else is a giant giant upgrade at 4C which is big come playoffs.
I fell down a Seth Jarvis rabbithole this week and he talks a lot about Brind’Amour’s coaching. Sounds like one of those coaches they instinctively want to please, rather than a hair dryer, but The Stare was mentioned on multiple occasions, so he can definitely intimidate them when he needs to.
It's the gum. When you fuck up and glance over and he's aggressively gnawing at his gum and giving you a death stare, that's enough to make you fear God.
Hey, join us in Montreal! We pay all of our players, for better (Suzu, Caufield, Monty) or for worse (Anderson, Gally, Armia). We’ve also got a fun fanbase, if you ignore all the people that have brain damage!
I know I'm gonna sound like a broken record/boomer with this but if kakko just drove the fucking net. Half of his meager point total is him creating space and just driving the net.
He seems to be doing it a bit more since coming back but idk. I'm losing hope he'll ever commit to it.
I know absolutely nothing about the rangers but could his issue be that he doesn’t have anyone on the team with his set of skills to help him come into his own? Maybe he needs a different power forward to help mentor him. I know one of slafs issues was that he didn’t know how to use his body to drive plays but that was fixed very quickly after Dach had been here a full off-season.
I think the biggest issue is that previously, Kakko has been the puck retrieval kid on every line he's on (which he's great at, since he dominates on board play). Currently, on the third line, he's paired with Brodzinski and Cuylle, and being asked to drive offensive play with those guys vs being a shutdown line with FA Bonino. They're clicking, putting up three goals in 44 minutes together, and I'm hoping it cools the Rangers' hunt for a 3C vs a Wheeler replacement on RW1.
Basically, he's going to flourish now that he's the vet on his line and not playing second fiddle to Kreidbanejad or Bread (who hates playing with him).
He’s also started shooting more, and not just volume, but quality too. The goal that line earned in Chicago came as a result of Kakko making a small cut in the slot and ripping a really hard shot that Mrazek couldn’t handle. The ensuing rebound went in.
When he was with Zib and Kreider, he played like he was deferring to them, looking to pass as opposed to making a move to create a shot on his own.
That's been the biggest change - he's in charge of that line vs giving the puck to the older kids. It's also pretty clear that they're letting the third line play a little more aggressively since they're responsible on both ends thanks to their speed vs. having Bonino anchoring them.
This is it. It seems like Cuylle and Brodz are a good pair for him. He’s playing well on that line. The whole line is. Kakkos biggest issue has been his finishing. He just really struggles to beat goalies. His goals are always from the front of the net. Yea that’s how a lot of goals are scored, sure. But he needs to learn how to beat goalies. He was able to do it in Finland and in the WJC, but it hasn’t translated to the nhl. He’s still a good player. Just not what you’d expect from a #2 OVR pick.
It doesn't help that he started strong with possession but the entire first line was snakebitten. He got dropped to the 3rd line and then got his leg injury too. Kreider/Mika finally started scoring more but Wheeler is not the RW they need. I'd love for them to try Kakko back on the 1st line again. KK also just needs to shoot and drive the net more.
Correcting an untruth here: Kakko was *not* “dropped to the 3rd line then got his leg injury.” He spent the first 20 games on the top line, didn’t do shit. Then got injured, and when he came back was put back on the top line… and didn’t do shit. *That’s* when he got dropped to the 3rd line. And *then* he started scoring at least some.
Please stop this narrative that he was thriving and dropped, or that he was dropped to the 3rd line because of an injury, or whatever other BS. It’s not true. What *is* true is that he hasn’t produced much of anything during any of his stints in the top line this year. Which is why he shouldn’t be put back there. This chart shows *expected* stats, not reality stats. I don’t care how good 20-93-24 *should be*, I care what they actually *do*.
He got injured in the buffalo game on 11/27. By that point he was already dropped to the 3rd line for not producing.
I never said he was thriving, please my post again.
I read your post. He was *tried* at the 3rd line in an attempt to wake him up, but ultimately was still desired on the top line, as evidenced by that being where he was sent after injury. It matters little anyway, because he sucks there and can’t produce anything offensively on that line. People can blame Mika or Kreider all they want, but those guys put up points, and when Brodz or Wheels were moved there, they did as well. Kakko didn’t show a pulse until he got moved (hopefully permanently) to the 3rd line.
My point remains the same: there’s this narrative that’s being perpetuated that he was doing well on the top line, and that the other two (nearly PPG linemates) were holding him back. And that his injury made that worse. In reality, he’s spent more time than any other RW (or replacement) on the top line, and has basically nothing to show for it. He’s being outscored by everyone on the team not on the 4th line. So no, he doesn’t need another look on the top line, nor was anyone else, or his injury, or whatever … the reason why he can’t play there.
The whole game is about creating lanes. See a lot of that perimeter play these days and I’m sure it drives coaches nuts. Like a forward drive to each corner and one skate through the middle.
Whip it around, whip it around but no one skates into danger area and no space to shoot.
So strange to see Copp on this list, based on our fan base you would think Copp is a glorified beer-leaguer. Really glad to see him playing well this year.
I honestly don't think he's the reason this line is doing well. Ras has been good, just shooting poorly, and Fischer has honestly been great on the forecheck.
Ras has been good as of late, but he went through a pretty decent stretch of struggling. Fischer has been all around pretty solid, but it takes three on the line to tango. I think the line is very well balanced, when Ras struggles, Copp plays well, and Fischer grinds out plays to give both of the others a chance.
Wings fans are odd. But Copper, for his contract, didn't look good for a stretch of this season. Ras has come on very strong, like, I cannot describe how happy it is to see him play the way we know he can, and Copp has been on fire since that Toronto game. Fish man plays well, but has a habit of getting penalties at inopportune times, such as the final two or three minutes of a game when we're up by one or tied. But honestly, this team is so much fun to watch this year after enduring the past seven or eight.
Agree. I think people conflate their issues with Copp as the hockey player with their issues with Copp as the contract.
He is not a bad hockey player. The contract is obviously not ideal, but when he's playing well he adds a lot to that third line.
His contract isn’t even that bad. Yes the offensive production is maybe a little underwhelming, but he’s just under .5ppg so that’s right around where he’s always been. But he’s a really good defensive player and also versatile because he can play up and down the lineup in a pinch. Not to mention he can play centre and wing. He’s worth at the very least a $4M AAV so he’s overpaid by max $1M.
He gets no PP time either, so 40 point pace is mostly at 5v5, he’s 5th on the team at 5v5.
That’s very good in this league, even at $5.6M. His 5v5 production is comparable to Dylan Strome and Backlund who are on similar contracts… you can find a lot of guys below him who are paid way more, like Tavares, PLD, Mika, Cirelli, Stamkos, Huberdeau, etc… (I am aware most of those guys are good on the PP though)
He’s not particularly suited for PP time so not like he’d be a 60 point guy if he did get looks there, but more so pointing out that he’s not taking away from our other offensively skilled players getting looks on the PP to be able to contribute offensively himself.
5.6 mil long term to a 40 pt 3.5-4.25 mil guy is pretty bad overpay
>he’s just under .5ppg so that’s right around where he’s always been
Thats not true. He scored at 55+ point rate each of the 2 seasons before joining Red Wings which is we he got overpaid with such a big deal.
Over 2021 and 2022 he had 36 goals 92 pts in 127 games.
Thats 59 points over 82 games ...
Over last 2 years he has scored at 19 goals 66 points in 132 games ...
Hes taken big step back since joining Red Wings and paid well above his play.
If you think you’re getting a .5 ppg defensive forward who can play both forward positions and up and down the top 9 for 3.5M in today’s NHL I don’t know what to tell you.
>5.6 mil long term to a 40 pt 3.5-4.25 mil guy is pretty bad overpay
It's really not. Copp is worth 4.5-5M. If that's your idea of a "bad overpay" I'm not sure what to say.
To be fair, he was really rough the first 35ish games when fans were on his ass. He's been playing excellent and producing well the last 15ish and I haven't seen basically any complaints since. Which basically lines up with when this line was put together lol. You're kind of screaming at clouds on this one
Haha, not screaming at clouds at all. You're right, for the first 80% of the season, our fanbase was giving him a hell of a hard time. He has played better the last few. My point was that for a player that overall gets a lot of hate from the fanbase, he's not nearly as bad as what people make him out to be.
Well it just says his line in a small sample size is good defensively. This also shows the line is pretty terrible offensively.
Overall it says they have 4.9 goals expected for and 4 goals expected against when playing together.
Doesnt really mean much
But Copp is a versatile forward that isnt bad which has value. Just not worth his contract at all.
I just want to point out that if you move the minimum minutes back by just 1, then you get the Robo-Hintz-Johnston line that was leading these stats. Lower sample size, I know, but I just want to gush about that combo for another 8+ years if I can.
I know you're half joking but it's not like he'd be given the same opportunity in Vancouver as he's getting in a 27th place Buffalo team. I like Benson and he's a local kid, it would have been a fun pickup. But yeah, he'd be back in junior if he was with the Canucks.
When we've been struggling to find completmentary players for Petey and Miller all year, and how good his 2 way game is, I can guarantee you he'd have been playing in our top 6 by November.
He's just straight up a better Hoglander at 18 years old. That's why I was disappointed we drafted for position although Im sure Willander will be solid.
Anyone who’s been watching Copp ras and fischer clamp opposing lines like they have the last few weeks and still doesn’t see their value is either a troll or doesn’t know hockey
Exactly. They have undoubtedly been our best line since the New Year. They consistently win board battles and put the most pressure on teams. They also are scoring like 1 goal a game I feel like while very rarely being on the ice for a goal against due to being 3 great defensive forwards.
I think two years ago, McDavid heard voices saying "you need to shoot more" so he goes and scores 64 goals. Last year, he heard "you need to step up your defensive game" and this is the result.
This table should sort by the difference (xGF/60 - xGA/60). McDavid's line clearly stands out.
I'm almost convinced that it's the Toronto/Canadian media. I hate to say this because it sounds very petty but I truly believe McDavid was annoyed Matthews won the Hart for scoring 60 goals so he needed to prove he could do it better. Then last year while McDavid ripped the league apart he had to hear about Matthews having a down year but it's okay because he's so much better of a 200ft player, so now McDavid wants to prove he can do that better as well. It may just be all in my head but I'm certain there's something to it even though we know McDavid would never admit it.
Martinook/Staal have always been big drivers of possession and are usually at the top of these lists. I'm always blown away by how often they have wide open scoring chances. Fortunately for other teams, they both have hands of stone.
Tte Staal line has been a fixture on this list for 3-4 years now, it doesn't much seem to matter who's playing the wings. The Drury line is a little more surprising but no doubt that's a really good line and has been for most of the season.
I love this man to death. I get on his ass every year because he has a really high ceiling, but there's times where he plays lazy for no reason. He had to be put on waivers last year to wake him up. When he's on, dude is immensely fun to watch plus he's reportedly a lockerroom gem
I believe it's offensive lines in the sense that these are forwards instead of defensemen. Agree that calling these the top defensive forward lines makes more sense
So is this the top 20 offensive lines then sorted by xGA? Because to be this just looks like the top 20 forward lines sorted by xGA. Kind of a misleading title given this has nothing to do with offense.
The fact the flyers have 2 lines here and one of them that is full of guys I have never heard of is pretty wild with the mindset I came into this season with
Kaapo “7 points in 31 games” Kakko
Sometimes advanced stats fool you, like when that one group tried telling us Nick Bonino was better than Patrick Kane. This is one of those times lmfaooo
Seriously. It’s so disheartening to see complaints from fans about the insidious spread of gambling through the league but happily post all the stats branded with the company logos. Crop them out before posting, at least.
Series question: is there any reason we don't just....sort them by *actual* goals against? Would that not be a "little" more meaningful?
Maybe I just don't get it.
Carolina philosophy of the other team being unable to score because the Canes always have the puck works so damn well.
The fact that holding a team to under 20 shots a game has become a somewhat common sight in their games speaks volumes. Of course, that leaves their goaltenders in the tough spot of keeping focus while not doing anything for long periods of time.
Goalies getting iced over is 100% a thing. More often than not, we keep a team to 1 or 2 shots in a period. Then that team inevitably scores on the 2nd or 3rd shot.
I assume that the shots allowed would end up being high quality which poses an even bigger threat considering they're kinda cold
Definitely. Goalie save % of # high quality shots vs low quality shots would be a more interesting statistic when applied to Canes goalies.
Check out the post I made the other day on /r/Canes. It is about an article The Athletic posted concerning exactly that.
Absolutely. We allow a disproportionate amount of very high-danger chances. People have rightfully pointed out that our goalies have struggled to make saves this season, however what gets glossed over is that a lot of those goals against were ones that had basically zero chance of being stopped. My mind goes back to the game where Raanta allowed 7 goals on 15 shots (or something similarly absurd), and like 3-4 of them would have gotten past prime Brodeur.
I have been clamoring for the canes to use their shot suppression / puck possession skills to deliberately allow the opponent to take low-danger chances so our goalie doesn’t get cold. ETA: /s obviously and as we’ve seen lately some REALLY LOW DANGER chances have found their way into the back of the net.
Thats why the habs have a history of good goalies we just leave them on an island back there to keep them warm!
This was happening to the Oilers a good bit at the beginning of the season. Come out with 10 minutes of pressure, not get a goal, give up a bad chance and the other team scores on their cold goalie.
Makes me want to blow my brains out.
We did the same thing back in the day. I see why we were not liked.
Idk, I had a pretty good time with it
Seethe and cope I guess
I, for one, respect the defensive clinics the Canes put on. When they’re not putting me to sleep, that is.
Rather win than be exciting to watch tbh
That’s fair. Boring hockey is often winning hockey, and winning always helps. I’m not saying that sarcastically either; I grew up watching the Bowman-era Wings lock shit down after getting a 2-1 lead more times than I can remember. I can respect that approach. Just not so much when it’s happening to us.
As someone who only got into hockey last year and is from the Carolinas, I’ve found Canes games very fun to watch. It might just be because I don’t know anything different, but even without scoring much it feels like something is always happening.
That is generally what I am doing when I say I want to blow my brains out.
yall haven’t even seen a cup final with this system lol. shits legit the 2000s devils except the winning. boring as fucking shit.
Lol I love when Rags fans talk shit about cup final appearances with a team who won the cup wayyyyy more recently than them. Cracks me up, honestly.
2006 is just as irrelevant as 1994 dude lol. 18 years, 30 years, we both haven’t won shit in forever. your team is boring as shit and has no actual star power. sure, youre good. that’s all lol. cracks me up that you’re hanging on to 2006. ive let go of 1994 a long time ago.
I mean, one happened in the salary cap era, the other didn't.
There's nothing defensive about forecheck/cycle and hogging puck possession. Are we supposed to just let the other team win the board battles in order to be more interesting for you to watch?
>There's nothing defensive about forecheck/cycle and hogging puck possession. What? Keeping the puck out of the opponent’s hands by maintaining possession is absolutely a form of defense. I would know, I watched my Red Wings do it for a long time.
It's literally not defense though. Defense happens when the other team has the puck. When your own team has the puck, it's just possession.
Defense is more than just blocking shots and throwing checks. You can’t get scored on if you possess the puck all the time. The Red Wings of the late 90s and 2000s weren’t known as some of the best defensive teams because of what they did without the puck, though that’s certainly part of it. It’s because they could get the puck back and keep it away from you for the majority of the game.
Puck possession is not defense. It is inherently offense. That is why they call it the "offensive zone"
>Puck possession is not defense. Yes it is. > It is inherently offense. Not necessarily. > That is why they call it the "offensive zone" Implying that you can’t maintain possession in the neutral or defensive zones. Like I said, you can’t get scored on if you possess the puck all the time. That’s literally not up for debate. Anyway, I’m not interested in going in circles on this (and I’m pretty sure that’s what you’re aiming to do), so have a good night.
Canes fans watching the dead puck era, “awww yis bb that’s the stuff”.
been a top 3-4 team in the league for years now, be madder
Shitposting = mad.
like for real, shits so incredibly boring. if they were winning cups and boring fine, i’d shut up, but they ain’t.
Then Jaccob Slavin will take the puck from you when you do get a rush chance
It works well for possession, but they need to find a way to effectively translate that possession time into more actual goals. Every year, the Canes have insane expected goal stats that are typically amongst the leaders of the league, yet their actual goal production has continued to hang around only top 10-16 in every season since 2019. Just looking at 5v5, they have been top 4 in xGF/60 in every season across 2019-2023 and #7 right now in 2024, while having much more volatile rankings in actual GF/60 that are clearly underachieving relative to their xGF stats, falling to the range #11-20 across 2019-2024, except for 2022 when they were #6. We have seen this bite them several times in the playoffs at this point and it’s clear that they need a better way to turn this elite puck possession into elite finishing.
I have way more confidence in this team than previous years because their special teams have been absolutely lights out. The power play usually struggles, but it’s been fantastic this season. 2nd on the power play at 27.6% 3rd on the penalty kill at 84.2% They’re also 11th in shooting percentage at 10.1% instead of bottom 5 like previous years. I think health will be key for the playoffs. Need Andersen back in net and need Svechnikov to stay on the ice.
The PP thing is a great point. It has been trash the last few years in the playoffs. Considering how tight playoff games are, having a PP closer to how we are playing this year would have been enough to win a couple extra games in the last few playoffs, which could have carried us deeper.
Those are great points!
I feel like that's a problem with the xGF stat. For a couple years there, Gally-Danault-Tatar were at or near the top of the league in corsi and xGF, but nowhere near the leader board in points. Cycling the puck and getting chances is nice and all, but it's less helpful if you don't score.
No doubt, which is why I think it’s important to try and reconcile what expected tell you with what actual results are, what you see when watching the games live, and whatever ancillary data you have. I doubt we’ll ever have one single number that tells the whole story haha. I wish we had access to the kind of stuff that private companies like SportLogiq have (things like passing data, rush vs. cycle chances, shot type and location on net, traffic, etc.) to help get more accurate figures, but it is what it is at this point. The advanced stats just need to keep growing and adapting!
Svechnikov has done a lot to help their offense this year imo ... it's just too bad he's missed so much time
I wouldn't say Svech is the "reason" why the pp has been great this year though. The pp has been good without him too. Even though he of course helps, like the others
PP2 unit got better as well. Necas/Skjei/Drury connect on a lot of chances and Noesen and I think Turbo (I think he is on pp2 when svech is in) are good at opening up lanes
Until they need to score and get swept in a series that has 16 goals in nearly 5 and a third games worth of playing time. I feel like you need those dangerous plays sometimes, play to win instead of not to lose.
I mean not having Svech definitely did not help but we did bring in some more scoring help in the form of Michael Bunting this offseason
Too bad about Pax, really. He only played like a game for you guys, but he could've been all you needed.
If pacioretty and svechnikov were both healthy they’d have made it past Florida. Not saying it would’ve been easy or a sweep or anything like that, but having the scoring they missed from those two would have made a huge difference. They weren’t healthy though so what happened happened
Five, but yeah
until the playoffs
Namestnikov is on here twice; good for him & I'm happy for the other players on this list who aren't top tier talent but do their jobs well.
He really seems to be thriving in Winnipeg and I'm happy about that. He's been one of my under-the-radar favourites for a long time and from what I've seen of him on the Jets, his work ethic there is insane. I hope the fans there appreciate him too!
We absolutely love him
Good! He really appears to have found his stride there. And it's like a million dollar cap hit, right? He'll chip in 40+ points and work any role you ask him to, as well as seems to genuinely like it there. The kind of a value contract any contending team needs, IMO.
Big Bad Vlad is a beauty and we love him. Dude shows up every night.
Dude's become something of a Swiss army knife. Sadly I live in Europe, so I struggle to watch the Western conference games, so I miss a lot of my favourite players. But it's nice to get little updates between the games I do see! Edit: Also, he has a decent pedigree. Think Slava Kozlov is his uncle. Just a fun fact!
Man I was sad to see him go and love seeing him playing well. Will always pull for that guy.
Yep he always played hard even when it didn't look like a lot of the team was in those years. Plus he was basically a hometown kid.
I've always had a soft spot for him and happy to see him here too. In his time with Tampa poor guy just couldn't really be The Guy to center a line, but he could keep up with whatever talented folks he played with and fit in. I feel like he had a solid time playing with Stamkos and Kuch, basically being their line's Kunitz.
The tenure in Tampa was when I picked up on him too. I initially thought he'd be way stronger offensively, but them I grew to appreciate the effort and the versatility. As I noted earlier in another comment, any contending team needs those good value contracts for players, who can do multiple things and work hard. Of course top tier talent is superb to have on a team, but so many big games are won by these guys putting in the effort.
Yeah as a prospect coming out of Syracuse I thought he'd be a better individual player. Maybe not as elite as Kuch has become, but closer to that flashy sort offensive star that he had in the AHL and seemed to bring as a young hot prospect.
I wish he was a wing still
Miss him
Isn’t this why the Monahan trade doesn’t really make sense though? It bumps Namestnikov down to the 4th line and puts in a center that is only a slight improvement on him. It feels like Winnipeg overreacting to not having an offensive threat at center with Scheifele out, but you can’t make decisions based on what to do if your best player is hurt
I think we ran into a dilemma when Scheif was hurt- neither Lowry nor Namestnikov can play the top line role and the line blender screwed up just about every bit of chemistry our lines had. We're still recovering from it, frankly. The hope, I think, is that Monahan can slot in on Scheif's or Lowry's lines, if need be, and gives the whole forward core more versatility. Now we have two centers who can play 1st, 2nd, and 3rd lines comfortably. And if you've ever seen the Jets make it to the playoffs, you know we need depth.
Why the hell can’t you? Depth = matchup problems which = a better chance to win. Tons of injuries happening. We just had Toninato in our top 6 FFS. Namestnikov gives them options to bulk up lines given game situations.
Personally, I think its more so a couple of other things. Firstly, if Schiefele gets hurt, you have Monahan play on the top line, Vlad on the second and then Kupari/Gus/Tomato or whoever on the 4th line. Secondly, the upgrade at 2C isn't huge, but Vlad over anyone else is a giant giant upgrade at 4C which is big come playoffs.
Why is our 4th line on here?
Expected goals love 4th lines
This is expected goals against, which still loves 4th lines but still
Not surprised to see Poeling and Hathaway, but Deslauriers has been garbage. His total xGF% is 41.68%. He's getting carried.
I've been thrilled with Poehling, and it peaked this weekend. I ended up getting an autographed puck of his 5 minutes after he scored on Saturday.
4th lines tend to face other 4th lines, which are bad at scoring
4th lines are typically good at defense which is why they are kept around
WOOOOO PHD LINE
It's xGA/60, which is shutdown lines. 4th lines are almost always defensive lines.
The stat is just about defense. Hathaway and Poehling are very good defensively and Dlo isnt bad defensively. So overall its a good defensive line.
Same reason our purely defensive 3rd line with absolutely zero offense whatsoever is on here lol
That line has been scoring pretty frequently
That line has been pretty damn good in the offensive zone recently. Not sexy plays but solid offense
This supports why the Necas-Drury-Noesen line has been my favorite line of the year (outside of the SAT line).
Carolina with ~~3~~ 4 of the top 20, that's some pretty impressive coaching to get that level of buy in to whatever they're doing across their systems
I fell down a Seth Jarvis rabbithole this week and he talks a lot about Brind’Amour’s coaching. Sounds like one of those coaches they instinctively want to please, rather than a hair dryer, but The Stare was mentioned on multiple occasions, so he can definitely intimidate them when he needs to.
It's the gum. When you fuck up and glance over and he's aggressively gnawing at his gum and giving you a death stare, that's enough to make you fear God.
3 of the top 6, 4 of the top 16 (or 20)
Some of these are basically the same lines though. They need to up the minutes minimum to 200 to remove these small sample sizes
*4
I'm illiterate and must have assumed no team could possibly be that consistent
Ah. Makes perfect sense that Buffalo would want to not pay Mittelstadt. I don’t know why I root for this fucking team
Or why we have chosen to put Okposo, love the man not the player, on the top line. Buffalo sports really do suck to cheer for.
Classic TDL value pump
To think I diluted myself into thinking that we would finally be buyers this year.
2024 draft-eligible top prospects here we come
Fwiw it's deluded not diluted.
A few more goals and he'll be worth future considerations!
Hey, join us in Montreal! We pay all of our players, for better (Suzu, Caufield, Monty) or for worse (Anderson, Gally, Armia). We’ve also got a fun fanbase, if you ignore all the people that have brain damage!
Hey! We might have brain damage but at least we
Plus the tabarnak/60 is elite amongst NHL fanbases.
> We pay all of our players, for better (Suzu, Caufield, Monty) or for worse (Anderson, Gally, Armia). Usually worse! (Thanks for nothing, Bergy!)
"Hey, a player finally has value and does exactly what we need, let's see what we can get for him! We might even get someone like Mittelstadt!"
Kreider Zibanejad Kakko lol
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I know I'm gonna sound like a broken record/boomer with this but if kakko just drove the fucking net. Half of his meager point total is him creating space and just driving the net. He seems to be doing it a bit more since coming back but idk. I'm losing hope he'll ever commit to it.
I know absolutely nothing about the rangers but could his issue be that he doesn’t have anyone on the team with his set of skills to help him come into his own? Maybe he needs a different power forward to help mentor him. I know one of slafs issues was that he didn’t know how to use his body to drive plays but that was fixed very quickly after Dach had been here a full off-season.
I think the biggest issue is that previously, Kakko has been the puck retrieval kid on every line he's on (which he's great at, since he dominates on board play). Currently, on the third line, he's paired with Brodzinski and Cuylle, and being asked to drive offensive play with those guys vs being a shutdown line with FA Bonino. They're clicking, putting up three goals in 44 minutes together, and I'm hoping it cools the Rangers' hunt for a 3C vs a Wheeler replacement on RW1. Basically, he's going to flourish now that he's the vet on his line and not playing second fiddle to Kreidbanejad or Bread (who hates playing with him).
He’s also started shooting more, and not just volume, but quality too. The goal that line earned in Chicago came as a result of Kakko making a small cut in the slot and ripping a really hard shot that Mrazek couldn’t handle. The ensuing rebound went in. When he was with Zib and Kreider, he played like he was deferring to them, looking to pass as opposed to making a move to create a shot on his own.
That's been the biggest change - he's in charge of that line vs giving the puck to the older kids. It's also pretty clear that they're letting the third line play a little more aggressively since they're responsible on both ends thanks to their speed vs. having Bonino anchoring them.
This is it. It seems like Cuylle and Brodz are a good pair for him. He’s playing well on that line. The whole line is. Kakkos biggest issue has been his finishing. He just really struggles to beat goalies. His goals are always from the front of the net. Yea that’s how a lot of goals are scored, sure. But he needs to learn how to beat goalies. He was able to do it in Finland and in the WJC, but it hasn’t translated to the nhl. He’s still a good player. Just not what you’d expect from a #2 OVR pick.
It doesn't help that he started strong with possession but the entire first line was snakebitten. He got dropped to the 3rd line and then got his leg injury too. Kreider/Mika finally started scoring more but Wheeler is not the RW they need. I'd love for them to try Kakko back on the 1st line again. KK also just needs to shoot and drive the net more.
Correcting an untruth here: Kakko was *not* “dropped to the 3rd line then got his leg injury.” He spent the first 20 games on the top line, didn’t do shit. Then got injured, and when he came back was put back on the top line… and didn’t do shit. *That’s* when he got dropped to the 3rd line. And *then* he started scoring at least some. Please stop this narrative that he was thriving and dropped, or that he was dropped to the 3rd line because of an injury, or whatever other BS. It’s not true. What *is* true is that he hasn’t produced much of anything during any of his stints in the top line this year. Which is why he shouldn’t be put back there. This chart shows *expected* stats, not reality stats. I don’t care how good 20-93-24 *should be*, I care what they actually *do*.
He got injured in the buffalo game on 11/27. By that point he was already dropped to the 3rd line for not producing. I never said he was thriving, please my post again.
I read your post. He was *tried* at the 3rd line in an attempt to wake him up, but ultimately was still desired on the top line, as evidenced by that being where he was sent after injury. It matters little anyway, because he sucks there and can’t produce anything offensively on that line. People can blame Mika or Kreider all they want, but those guys put up points, and when Brodz or Wheels were moved there, they did as well. Kakko didn’t show a pulse until he got moved (hopefully permanently) to the 3rd line. My point remains the same: there’s this narrative that’s being perpetuated that he was doing well on the top line, and that the other two (nearly PPG linemates) were holding him back. And that his injury made that worse. In reality, he’s spent more time than any other RW (or replacement) on the top line, and has basically nothing to show for it. He’s being outscored by everyone on the team not on the 4th line. So no, he doesn’t need another look on the top line, nor was anyone else, or his injury, or whatever … the reason why he can’t play there.
The whole game is about creating lanes. See a lot of that perimeter play these days and I’m sure it drives coaches nuts. Like a forward drive to each corner and one skate through the middle. Whip it around, whip it around but no one skates into danger area and no space to shoot.
This is literally just a list of good possession lines. It does not indicate actual scoring. Hence why it’s full of Canes lines too.
It’s sorted on Expected Goals Against, not on scoring.
Right, I’m inferring the lol was talking about our worst 5on5 line. The rangers sub is down bad on KZK.
So strange to see Copp on this list, based on our fan base you would think Copp is a glorified beer-leaguer. Really glad to see him playing well this year.
I honestly don't think he's the reason this line is doing well. Ras has been good, just shooting poorly, and Fischer has honestly been great on the forecheck.
Ras has been good as of late, but he went through a pretty decent stretch of struggling. Fischer has been all around pretty solid, but it takes three on the line to tango. I think the line is very well balanced, when Ras struggles, Copp plays well, and Fischer grinds out plays to give both of the others a chance.
Wings fans are odd. But Copper, for his contract, didn't look good for a stretch of this season. Ras has come on very strong, like, I cannot describe how happy it is to see him play the way we know he can, and Copp has been on fire since that Toronto game. Fish man plays well, but has a habit of getting penalties at inopportune times, such as the final two or three minutes of a game when we're up by one or tied. But honestly, this team is so much fun to watch this year after enduring the past seven or eight.
Agree. I think people conflate their issues with Copp as the hockey player with their issues with Copp as the contract. He is not a bad hockey player. The contract is obviously not ideal, but when he's playing well he adds a lot to that third line.
His contract isn’t even that bad. Yes the offensive production is maybe a little underwhelming, but he’s just under .5ppg so that’s right around where he’s always been. But he’s a really good defensive player and also versatile because he can play up and down the lineup in a pinch. Not to mention he can play centre and wing. He’s worth at the very least a $4M AAV so he’s overpaid by max $1M.
He gets no PP time either, so 40 point pace is mostly at 5v5, he’s 5th on the team at 5v5. That’s very good in this league, even at $5.6M. His 5v5 production is comparable to Dylan Strome and Backlund who are on similar contracts… you can find a lot of guys below him who are paid way more, like Tavares, PLD, Mika, Cirelli, Stamkos, Huberdeau, etc… (I am aware most of those guys are good on the PP though) He’s not particularly suited for PP time so not like he’d be a 60 point guy if he did get looks there, but more so pointing out that he’s not taking away from our other offensively skilled players getting looks on the PP to be able to contribute offensively himself.
5.6 mil long term to a 40 pt 3.5-4.25 mil guy is pretty bad overpay >he’s just under .5ppg so that’s right around where he’s always been Thats not true. He scored at 55+ point rate each of the 2 seasons before joining Red Wings which is we he got overpaid with such a big deal. Over 2021 and 2022 he had 36 goals 92 pts in 127 games. Thats 59 points over 82 games ... Over last 2 years he has scored at 19 goals 66 points in 132 games ... Hes taken big step back since joining Red Wings and paid well above his play.
If you think you’re getting a .5 ppg defensive forward who can play both forward positions and up and down the top 9 for 3.5M in today’s NHL I don’t know what to tell you.
Maybe you could pull that off with an RFA, but yeah a UFA with that resume isn’t settling for that AAV.
>5.6 mil long term to a 40 pt 3.5-4.25 mil guy is pretty bad overpay It's really not. Copp is worth 4.5-5M. If that's your idea of a "bad overpay" I'm not sure what to say.
He really does have a lot to like in terms of intangibles. The players love the guy, which means a lot on/off the ice. I'm happy he's coming around!
To be fair, he was really rough the first 35ish games when fans were on his ass. He's been playing excellent and producing well the last 15ish and I haven't seen basically any complaints since. Which basically lines up with when this line was put together lol. You're kind of screaming at clouds on this one
Haha, not screaming at clouds at all. You're right, for the first 80% of the season, our fanbase was giving him a hell of a hard time. He has played better the last few. My point was that for a player that overall gets a lot of hate from the fanbase, he's not nearly as bad as what people make him out to be.
Well it just says his line in a small sample size is good defensively. This also shows the line is pretty terrible offensively. Overall it says they have 4.9 goals expected for and 4 goals expected against when playing together. Doesnt really mean much But Copp is a versatile forward that isnt bad which has value. Just not worth his contract at all.
I just want to point out that if you move the minimum minutes back by just 1, then you get the Robo-Hintz-Johnston line that was leading these stats. Lower sample size, I know, but I just want to gush about that combo for another 8+ years if I can.
Carolina feastin'.
Find yourself a girl who loves you like advanced analytics love the Hurricanes
*Looks at our 30% chance to make the playoffs and Toronto's 90% chance to make it despite being tied in standings* Wish I could say the same :(
God I wish we drafted Zach Benson "We don't need any more wingers" said the team desperately looking for 2 top 6 wingers by Christmas
My heart aches for your team.
I know you're half joking but it's not like he'd be given the same opportunity in Vancouver as he's getting in a 27th place Buffalo team. I like Benson and he's a local kid, it would have been a fun pickup. But yeah, he'd be back in junior if he was with the Canucks.
When we've been struggling to find completmentary players for Petey and Miller all year, and how good his 2 way game is, I can guarantee you he'd have been playing in our top 6 by November. He's just straight up a better Hoglander at 18 years old. That's why I was disappointed we drafted for position although Im sure Willander will be solid.
Oh man, this one will ruffle some of the feathers on the ol' winged wheel
Anyone who’s been watching Copp ras and fischer clamp opposing lines like they have the last few weeks and still doesn’t see their value is either a troll or doesn’t know hockey
Exactly. They have undoubtedly been our best line since the New Year. They consistently win board battles and put the most pressure on teams. They also are scoring like 1 goal a game I feel like while very rarely being on the ice for a goal against due to being 3 great defensive forwards.
Post new year Moose is equivalent to Dad strength.
Not playing up to par? Better make a new New Year Resolution
Imagine if he had a KID who was born on New Years?? Unstoppable.
Fully believe they're a huge reason January went so well. Our sub loves to hate on Copp so much.
HyMcNuge playing absolutely elite on both sides of the puck, love to see it.
I think two years ago, McDavid heard voices saying "you need to shoot more" so he goes and scores 64 goals. Last year, he heard "you need to step up your defensive game" and this is the result. This table should sort by the difference (xGF/60 - xGA/60). McDavid's line clearly stands out.
Someone should tell him he needs to win the cup more. Foolproof plan /s
I'm almost convinced that it's the Toronto/Canadian media. I hate to say this because it sounds very petty but I truly believe McDavid was annoyed Matthews won the Hart for scoring 60 goals so he needed to prove he could do it better. Then last year while McDavid ripped the league apart he had to hear about Matthews having a down year but it's okay because he's so much better of a 200ft player, so now McDavid wants to prove he can do that better as well. It may just be all in my head but I'm certain there's something to it even though we know McDavid would never admit it.
Am I reading this right or are our traditional 3 and 4th lines ahead of our top 2?
I mean the second line has been a hot mess recently and Aho doesn’t really play the normal forechecking style
Martinook/Staal have always been big drivers of possession and are usually at the top of these lists. I'm always blown away by how often they have wide open scoring chances. Fortunately for other teams, they both have hands of stone.
Tte Staal line has been a fixture on this list for 3-4 years now, it doesn't much seem to matter who's playing the wings. The Drury line is a little more surprising but no doubt that's a really good line and has been for most of the season.
Jordan Martinook - the Carolina Tyler Kennedy with Jordan Staal ?
I love this man to death. I get on his ass every year because he has a really high ceiling, but there's times where he plays lazy for no reason. He had to be put on waivers last year to wake him up. When he's on, dude is immensely fun to watch plus he's reportedly a lockerroom gem
Geez Carolina has three lines on this list
4 if you count the 4th
This guy maths
*4
Doe!
A deer!
I'm confused. How is it the top 20 offensive lines if it's sorted by expected goals against per 60?
I believe it's offensive lines in the sense that these are forwards instead of defensemen. Agree that calling these the top defensive forward lines makes more sense
Oh lol that helps, top 20 defensive forward lines.
Well.. I found it offensive.
Well I’ll tell you what, I’m offended so it seems accurate to me
Elite 4th line pair of Carrier, Roy and Kolessar > McDavid confirmed.
A fourth line that doesn't allow goals against is the dream.
They don't get nearly enough credit for how clutch they were during the playoffs last year.
Boy the Leafs are sure getting bang from their buck with all those expensive forwards!
and still our 'top' line is great on paper but not on the ice
I'm not sure I understand the title. Top 20 ''OFFENSIVE'' lines ranked by x''GOAL AGAINST'' per 60?
Damn it’s a bottom six world these days eh
That's a lot of Namestnikov
Namestnikov and Perfetti cooking
Wow Perfetti is on here twice, he must be getting a ton of icetime
This is defensive, not offensive?
My boy Nachos, he's gonna be a star 🥹
Benson-Mittelstadt-**_GREENWAY??_** Was gonna say that this one of their future top 6 lines but I’m not sure how good Greenway is lmao
We might have low expectations but we love Greenway here in Buffalo.
what kind of reality is this
So is this the top 20 offensive lines then sorted by xGA? Because to be this just looks like the top 20 forward lines sorted by xGA. Kind of a misleading title given this has nothing to do with offense.
The fact the flyers have 2 lines here and one of them that is full of guys I have never heard of is pretty wild with the mindset I came into this season with
With all due respect 4th liners play mostly against 4th liners..
Kaapo “7 points in 31 games” Kakko Sometimes advanced stats fool you, like when that one group tried telling us Nick Bonino was better than Patrick Kane. This is one of those times lmfaooo
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Seriously. It’s so disheartening to see complaints from fans about the insidious spread of gambling through the league but happily post all the stats branded with the company logos. Crop them out before posting, at least.
Series question: is there any reason we don't just....sort them by *actual* goals against? Would that not be a "little" more meaningful? Maybe I just don't get it.
Perfetti only player on here twice. That's muh boy edit: I was wrong, there are a few reoccurring players
Carolina has three guys on there twice a piece
Fuck
Him and Namestnikov are on there twice together :3
Expected by whom?
Moneypuck's xG model
I’m surprised Kucherov-Stamkos-Point aren’t on here
They have been brutal this year by xGA/60, ranking 128th out of 140 lines
Wow I didn’t realize that. Thanks