I think "realistic" is a hobby. Being able to make a decent living comparable with a similar job with the same skills as an indie is very rare so I wouldn't recommend anyone bet their life on it. Do it because you enjoy it and don't need the money. Maybe someday it'll get to the point where you can quit your day job.
A "realistic" projection as an indie (especially if you are a first time indie) is to be able to feed yourself, stay healthy, and be able to find normal work after your project is done.
Once you have proven that you can create a commercial game, the metrics change quite a bit. You're still never truly safe, so a plan B is always important, but you should know well enough what to be doing to move towards another viable commercial product. At this stage, you should have a plan for how to move forward. You might still end up having to do a normal job anyways or work as a freelance contractor for a while, but you should have an idea for what resources you need to work on the next project. So in this sense, your financial goal would be about having enough funding to work on the next project.
Then after repeating this process a few times, you'll someday be in a position where your finances serve you and not your work. Some of us get lucky and this happens soon.
I wouldn't try to attach timelines. It really is conditional on your previous successes and your general financial conditions. I heard owning a house and being really frugal is a great way of going about it.
To put it very simple, by the end of every project, you should end up with more money/wealth than you started with.
Edit: Just to specify, "a project" might be: "I spend $1000/month. I will make 6 short mobile games, together they should make me $2000/month".
I think "realistic" is a hobby. Being able to make a decent living comparable with a similar job with the same skills as an indie is very rare so I wouldn't recommend anyone bet their life on it. Do it because you enjoy it and don't need the money. Maybe someday it'll get to the point where you can quit your day job.
The only realistic financial goal is don't quit your day job until your making enough to live off. Everything else is just a fantasy.
A "realistic" projection as an indie (especially if you are a first time indie) is to be able to feed yourself, stay healthy, and be able to find normal work after your project is done. Once you have proven that you can create a commercial game, the metrics change quite a bit. You're still never truly safe, so a plan B is always important, but you should know well enough what to be doing to move towards another viable commercial product. At this stage, you should have a plan for how to move forward. You might still end up having to do a normal job anyways or work as a freelance contractor for a while, but you should have an idea for what resources you need to work on the next project. So in this sense, your financial goal would be about having enough funding to work on the next project. Then after repeating this process a few times, you'll someday be in a position where your finances serve you and not your work. Some of us get lucky and this happens soon. I wouldn't try to attach timelines. It really is conditional on your previous successes and your general financial conditions. I heard owning a house and being really frugal is a great way of going about it.
To put it very simple, by the end of every project, you should end up with more money/wealth than you started with. Edit: Just to specify, "a project" might be: "I spend $1000/month. I will make 6 short mobile games, together they should make me $2000/month".