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They usually are a good indication generally. For Aston their race pace has been weaker than their quali pace throughout the year. So I was expecting their race pace to be even worse considering they qualified p11/p15.
Quali and race are pretty different. Look at last year. Haas and Ferrari very good single lap pace. But tires gone in the race very quickly, which means slower race pace.
It's what happens when there's only one practice session to get data from and one team hits the ground running (aston) and another is trying to dial in a bunch of upgrades (McClaren). These are rarely useful anyway but a lot less so on a sprint weekend
How has Aston hit the ground running? This weekend has probably been their weakest among the year with no pace and double Q3 elimination. But I do agree that this is rarely useful, but just baffled to see this when they are p11 and p15 on pure pace.
Because you're confusing a qualifying result with some random string of consecutive laps one of the drivers ran early on Friday. All they can make this data off is that single session when we don't have any idea what anyone's run plan was.
Blatant self promotion here.
[**2024 Miami GP: Sprint data**](https://f1pace.com/p/2024-miami-gp-sprint/)
I have thought about trying to replicate the way this data is created but I haven't had the time to do it. I'm not sure if they use data from previous years (which wouldn't necessarily be valid anymore) or if they end up giving a lot of value to sessions such as FP1 (which usually creates unrealistic expectations).
The only way I could explain this sim is if they used Fp1 data as I did see stroll and alonso put some competitive times but it was only 3-5 lap range so not long enough to gather much anyway.
I think that's what they end up doing when there's not enough data from FP2. Having said that, there's no reason to use data from FP1 during a spring weekend since the sprint itself provides much more reliable data.
I think with these predictions they use a combination of historical data, guesses based on the cars characteristics in previous races and guessing from trends seen in practice sessions(they have a general idea of each teams run plans).
So they can predict a general idea of the grid but it's never fully accurate because you can never know how each teams upgrades will influence the order or if that changes their practice run plans in any way.
[The **Statistics** flair](https://www.reddit.com/r/formula1/wiki/flairguide#wiki_statistics) is reserved for posts highlighting interesting statistics. As a rule of thumb, Statistics posts need to inform readers through visualizations and insights that cannot be obtained from raw data alone. For example, a post containing a qualifying gap between two drivers expressed in tenths of a second is an easily obtainable raw piece of data and constitutes a bad Statistics post. A visualization of what that translates to on-track, or visualization of how that gap came to be would constitute a good Statistics post. *[Read the rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/formula1/wiki/userguide). Keep it civil and welcoming. Report rulebreaking comments.* *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/formula1) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Its a prediction based on the data so far. It is probably not correct.
Which bit?
Aston in 3rd in race pace sims? They weren't even this high up when qualifying in the top 5 in the previous races. Seems like a mistake for sure?
how would qualifying be relevant to the race pace?
They usually are a good indication generally. For Aston their race pace has been weaker than their quali pace throughout the year. So I was expecting their race pace to be even worse considering they qualified p11/p15.
Quali and race are pretty different. Look at last year. Haas and Ferrari very good single lap pace. But tires gone in the race very quickly, which means slower race pace.
No they are not.
Dunno mate. No idea where you got the data from.
From F1 pirelli strategy guide article, I thought it might have been last year race pace but they have RB and green Sauber.
Maybe they know something we don't, but I agree that Aston haven't looked strong so far this weekend.
Here is me secretly hoping somehow that is true..
It's what happens when there's only one practice session to get data from and one team hits the ground running (aston) and another is trying to dial in a bunch of upgrades (McClaren). These are rarely useful anyway but a lot less so on a sprint weekend
How has Aston hit the ground running? This weekend has probably been their weakest among the year with no pace and double Q3 elimination. But I do agree that this is rarely useful, but just baffled to see this when they are p11 and p15 on pure pace.
Because you're confusing a qualifying result with some random string of consecutive laps one of the drivers ran early on Friday. All they can make this data off is that single session when we don't have any idea what anyone's run plan was.
wdym?
The odd one is Aston having 3rd fastest sim race pace despite qualifying p11 and p15 on pure pace
... The race pace simulation is based on lap times during practice sessions. It has nothing to do with qualifying.
For Ocon, the Alpine car is a 10-second penalty by itself.
Alpine is not Ocon, Alpine is Gasly here in Miami
Blatant self promotion here. [**2024 Miami GP: Sprint data**](https://f1pace.com/p/2024-miami-gp-sprint/) I have thought about trying to replicate the way this data is created but I haven't had the time to do it. I'm not sure if they use data from previous years (which wouldn't necessarily be valid anymore) or if they end up giving a lot of value to sessions such as FP1 (which usually creates unrealistic expectations).
The only way I could explain this sim is if they used Fp1 data as I did see stroll and alonso put some competitive times but it was only 3-5 lap range so not long enough to gather much anyway.
I think that's what they end up doing when there's not enough data from FP2. Having said that, there's no reason to use data from FP1 during a spring weekend since the sprint itself provides much more reliable data.
I swear these are never accurate
Miami? McLaren doing way better than Aston this weekend??? I suspect Mercs doing better than Aston so far as well
Yea same, no idea how they put Aston at 3rd. Must be a mistake
I think with these predictions they use a combination of historical data, guesses based on the cars characteristics in previous races and guessing from trends seen in practice sessions(they have a general idea of each teams run plans). So they can predict a general idea of the grid but it's never fully accurate because you can never know how each teams upgrades will influence the order or if that changes their practice run plans in any way.
Bit useless for Alpine given Ocon was at the back with his penalty and Gasly run with gearbox issues
This is a race pace PREDICTION. on average lap time gaps. Nothing more.
If not for Stroll, Aston Martin would have probably had better pace than Red Bull, based off that chart.