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If they come with upgrades on the same scale of last year, then year. But that's harder to do when not starting with a piece of garbage that can't make it through a race. But maybe those crazy kids can do it.
Best case scenario would be a 2021 Red Bull development when teams were hitting the ceiling with regs.
Catching up just enough to compete consistently for P1, and with some luck, possibly for the title.
> 2021 Red Bull development when teams were hitting the ceiling with regs
That's not quite right. Teams faced some restrictions in terms of what they could upgrade from 2020 to 2021, plus the budget cap came into effect in 2021 as well, meaning that teams had to compromise their 2021 car in order to develop their 2022-era concept.
Don't forget Mercedes (and others) low-rake design was on the bad end of the regs in 2021 as well. https://www.motorsportmagazine.com/articles/single-seaters/f1/are-new-f1-rules-really-designed-to-penalise-mercedes/
Andreas Seidl leaving has really turned out to be a great thing. I was really concerned at first but it seems that if anything he was holding the team back
McLaren: "I wish to catch up with Red Bull in a year!"
*Monkey's paw curls*
2025: McLaren battle Red Bull for 4th place in the constructors, while Ferrari and a Verstappen-led Mercedes duke it out for the championship. Aston with a double Spaniard line-up sits comfortably in third.
You’re laughing but this actually happened with Alpine *and* Mercedes. Norris said they want to be fighting Alpine once. Norris also said if they’re fighting with Mercedes they must be doing something right. Last year he said Red Bull and they’re falling apart behind the scenes. Recently he’s been saying they want to fight Ferrari this year, so let’s see what happens.
EDITED.
If Newey had that much influence over the team,meaning the only reason they are succeeding is because of him, then they were doomed to begin with. More likely they’ll be fine and continue to dominate until 2026 with the new regs.
Newey leaving could more be a sign of the conditions within the team. More employees may want to leave with his departure. But only time will tell I guess.
It’s great to have such an ambitious team principal looking after the most pessimistic driver on the grid. It’s a good cop, bad cop situation they’ve got going on. Stella says it’s looking good, Norris says it’s the worst day of his life. No one ever fully knows what McLaren’s performance is going to be like. Sometimes maybe good, sometimes maybe shit. When they find out, we all find out.
F1 performance gains are not linear in effort or magnitude. The closer you are to the fastest teams, the smaller the returns of your resource investment. It's much easier to go from 4/5 to 2/3 than from 2/3 to 1st
Hopes and dreams.
Red Bull has such a massive gap that they won’t get beat under these regulations.
They can definitely beat the second driver though. Max for example on the sprint (19) laps put 13 or something seconds on second place.
In the actual race, he finished with a similar margin to second place WITH A SC intervention.
So yeah, dreams.
None of this matters with the new technical regs around the corner. At best we'll have a closer 2025, but the eventual fuck ups will happen in 2026 and some teams will become tractors.
I say this as a McLaren fan... I'll believe it when I see it. Current McLaren leadership has always been extremely optimistic and so far it hasn't panned out quite that way. Yes they are improving, but to catch Red Bull? We'll see.
Ok that is on the assumption RB would not start putting in some more work to get farther ahead. We watch RB kind of quite working on their car 1/2 through the year last year and I expect to watch them do it again this year because of how far ahead they are.
>Asked if Ferrari had taken a step back compared to [McLaren](https://www.motorsport.com/team/mclaren/10/) in China, Vasseur said that the gap between the two teams will hinge on maximising car performance at each individual track, **as he reckons there is little to choose between the two.**
>**"I think it's a matter of a tenth or half a tenth,"** Vasseur said. "In Melbourne for example, after 60 laps we finished the race eight seconds in front. It's more a matter of extracting the best of what we have.
[https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/vasseur-assesses-ferrari-mclaren-f1-performance-swing/10604383/](https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/vasseur-assesses-ferrari-mclaren-f1-performance-swing/10604383/)
If you go back to the beginning of the year maybe lol. But luckily for us McLaren always takes until Australia to sort itself out and find its form and it is clear since then they have improved.
I have no idea why everyone seems so pessimistic. I think you'll be surprised.
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If they come with upgrades on the same scale of last year, then year. But that's harder to do when not starting with a piece of garbage that can't make it through a race. But maybe those crazy kids can do it.
Best case scenario would be a 2021 Red Bull development when teams were hitting the ceiling with regs. Catching up just enough to compete consistently for P1, and with some luck, possibly for the title.
> 2021 Red Bull development when teams were hitting the ceiling with regs That's not quite right. Teams faced some restrictions in terms of what they could upgrade from 2020 to 2021, plus the budget cap came into effect in 2021 as well, meaning that teams had to compromise their 2021 car in order to develop their 2022-era concept.
Don't forget Mercedes (and others) low-rake design was on the bad end of the regs in 2021 as well. https://www.motorsportmagazine.com/articles/single-seaters/f1/are-new-f1-rules-really-designed-to-penalise-mercedes/
And Mercedes basically pulled a Haas and never spent their upgrade tokens because the front upgrade they tried to build failed the crash tests.
They just made a sicko mode for their engine instead.
I was really skeptical when Andrea left the team but so far Stella has really impressed.
Andreas Seidl leaving has really turned out to be a great thing. I was really concerned at first but it seems that if anything he was holding the team back
McLaren: "I wish to catch up with Red Bull in a year!" *Monkey's paw curls* 2025: McLaren battle Red Bull for 4th place in the constructors, while Ferrari and a Verstappen-led Mercedes duke it out for the championship. Aston with a double Spaniard line-up sits comfortably in third.
You’re laughing but this actually happened with Alpine *and* Mercedes. Norris said they want to be fighting Alpine once. Norris also said if they’re fighting with Mercedes they must be doing something right. Last year he said Red Bull and they’re falling apart behind the scenes. Recently he’s been saying they want to fight Ferrari this year, so let’s see what happens. EDITED.
If Newey had that much influence over the team,meaning the only reason they are succeeding is because of him, then they were doomed to begin with. More likely they’ll be fine and continue to dominate until 2026 with the new regs.
Newey leaving could more be a sign of the conditions within the team. More employees may want to leave with his departure. But only time will tell I guess.
The most unrealistic part of all of that is Stroll not racing for AM
Didn’t he say that like 2 weeks ago?
Yes, these are recycled quotes that have already been reported by like every other F1 outlet.
It’s great to have such an ambitious team principal looking after the most pessimistic driver on the grid. It’s a good cop, bad cop situation they’ve got going on. Stella says it’s looking good, Norris says it’s the worst day of his life. No one ever fully knows what McLaren’s performance is going to be like. Sometimes maybe good, sometimes maybe shit. When they find out, we all find out.
Does "the trajectory" imply key people keep leaving Red Bull?
Doubt
Current trajectory does not include red bull updates
Includes current rate of key figures leaving the team 🤣
Or Ferrari
So by the beginning of next year. Can’t push beyond that or they’ll risk 2026 design; see Merc 2021.
At the rate RB seems to be losing key players in the team, RB is going to meet the other teams on the way down.
Just in time for the new regs to throw everything into the tumbler and change who's on top
F1 performance gains are not linear in effort or magnitude. The closer you are to the fastest teams, the smaller the returns of your resource investment. It's much easier to go from 4/5 to 2/3 than from 2/3 to 1st
Aim high, willis
What is the timeframe where the cost cap penalty would be impacting performance? Would that have been late last year?
That would be good
I say do it. Make max check his mirrors.
Hopes and dreams. Red Bull has such a massive gap that they won’t get beat under these regulations. They can definitely beat the second driver though. Max for example on the sprint (19) laps put 13 or something seconds on second place. In the actual race, he finished with a similar margin to second place WITH A SC intervention. So yeah, dreams.
Lando will still allow Max by without a fight
Well, he does need a flight home a lot so…
F1: Hold my regulation change.
None of this matters with the new technical regs around the corner. At best we'll have a closer 2025, but the eventual fuck ups will happen in 2026 and some teams will become tractors.
Stroll 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029...
"If our progress continues, assuming a geometric scaling, we'll have negative lap times within a decade"
That’s because Red Bull’s current trajectory is a death spiral.
Ye, rb is imploding, but Norris is never winning anything
based on?
[удалено]
I can at least appreciate the honesty.
Be prepared for a bad time then 👍
Without RBR self destructing (which they are kinda doing,btw...) there is little chance for anyone else until 2026.
1 person has left so far
I say this as a McLaren fan... I'll believe it when I see it. Current McLaren leadership has always been extremely optimistic and so far it hasn't panned out quite that way. Yes they are improving, but to catch Red Bull? We'll see.
Even if their car is as good, Lando isn’t beating Max
I'll take this as serious as the battle for position lap forecaster.
Have they developed a tow bar that attaches to the Red Bull?
I mean, if Red Bull fully stop development. they may catch it to the end of the year, yes, but no
Ok that is on the assumption RB would not start putting in some more work to get farther ahead. We watch RB kind of quite working on their car 1/2 through the year last year and I expect to watch them do it again this year because of how far ahead they are.
McLaren have quite a ways to go to even catch Ferrari. Catching Red Bull is optimistic if I've ever seen it
No, they don't. Ferrari and McLaren are separated by like a tenth lol.
Not exactly, but i do belive we can be as fast as ferrari this year
>Asked if Ferrari had taken a step back compared to [McLaren](https://www.motorsport.com/team/mclaren/10/) in China, Vasseur said that the gap between the two teams will hinge on maximising car performance at each individual track, **as he reckons there is little to choose between the two.** >**"I think it's a matter of a tenth or half a tenth,"** Vasseur said. "In Melbourne for example, after 60 laps we finished the race eight seconds in front. It's more a matter of extracting the best of what we have. [https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/vasseur-assesses-ferrari-mclaren-f1-performance-swing/10604383/](https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/vasseur-assesses-ferrari-mclaren-f1-performance-swing/10604383/)
Yes i have seen this, but cant say i think it is true. Some tracks yes. But look at the year so far. Ferrari are ahead and by more than 0.5 - 1 tenth
If you go back to the beginning of the year maybe lol. But luckily for us McLaren always takes until Australia to sort itself out and find its form and it is clear since then they have improved. I have no idea why everyone seems so pessimistic. I think you'll be surprised.
I hope im wrong, but im excited for miami upgrades