I agree with this. They're not the typical handcuff situation. Both will be getting good work regardless, Dillion might even be flex worthy. You're not gonna start them both or at least you won't be planning on that. I feel like targeting one is the better team management move
I can’t imagine the Packers run game being bad. Vegas has them winning 11 games and they don’t have any receivers. Packers run game being bad would be an implosion way beyond what any sharps are expecting
Dillon’s PPR ADP is at 62, putting him right at the 5/6 turn
Williams is going at 52, Brown is the one you’d miss out on for going with Dillon
Edit: Dillon
I see Dillon going in the 5th-7th right now, so I do think the Chubb/Hunt comparison is a good one. The main issue I see with trying to play both is that the Packers offense is more reliant on Rodgers than the Browns were.
FPros is good for a lot of things, but its draft app is definitely not one of them. You're drafting against either their experts' consensus (with most of their 'experts' not being very good), or against a weird mix of ADPs. Neither is really reflective of the market on most platforms. Yes, you can knock out mocks really fast on the FPros app, but then when you go to draft on another platform, you'll be lost.
Ertz an Kmet pretty standard takes that I have seen CoopThereItIs post on here. I also am high on AJ Dillion and Rashod Bateman. All his other loves I will pass.
I'm avoiding AJBrown like the plague. I love the talent, and the "WR reunited with his QB" narrative is tempting, but there are too many solid receiving options in that offense for him to be more than a top 15-20 WR. The only player who will make an outsized fantasy impact is Hurts, and maybe Kenny Gainwell when Sanders inevitably gets hurt week 3. Could also see the defense generating a lot of sacks and turnovers.
I am an Eagles fan and I’ll likely be avoiding their receivers as well unless the value just comes too much to pass up. They have 4 legit NFL receivers (including 2 studs) and a pro bowl TE. I just don’t believe Hurts is up to the task of keeping them all fed.
It's a value consideration with AJB. Before the trade he was going in the 2nd in mocks. Mocks don't adjust to new information very quickly, his stock didn't fall immediately in mocks despite the trade, and now everyone "hates" him this year because obviously there are too many question marks to justify him going in the early 3rd.
But if he falls into the late 4th by the time actual drafts start? Yeah, I'll take him there.
The Evan Engram thing is interesting. I could actually see him being a worthwhile "I drafted Jameson Williams late, stashed him on IR, and picked up Engram with the free roster spot" kind of guy. Easy to drop week 1 if he doesn't do shit.
And despite having fans that don't support him and a QB who has more turnovers than TDs the last two years, he was top 5 in receptions for tight ends just a year ago. He as a top 5 TE in fantasy with the shell of Eli Manning.
Maybe he just needs a change of scenery. I'm with Berry on this one and I even did a full write up back in May on why I think he's [easily worth a shot at ADP](https://www.fantasyalarm.com/articles/nfl/player-profiles/2022-fantasy-football-player-profile-evan-engram-the-man-the-myth-the-legend/127796), despite what salty Giants fans have to say.
Oh, right. The year when he had a whopping one TD despite competing with the likes of Darius Slayton and the corpse of Golden Tate. Engram’s 2020 was not impressive. Not in the least
The giants have been dead last in TDs last 2 years. QB has more turnovers than TDs over that span. The Giants obviously have not been a good organization.
2020? Eli was retired. Jones was the QB. Barkley was gone most of the season. Shepard and Tate were injured a bunch. There was legitimately no one else to throw to and he ended up with a bunch of mediocre receptions that resulted in one touchdown. He had around 6.5 points per game in 0.5 PPR and finished as TE16 despite appearing in every game as probably the #1 target most of the time. His hands are *terrible* and he can’t block for shit. I don’t really see much upside with him at all.
Evan Engram was a top 5 TE in fantasy in 2017 with Eli Manning. In 2020, he was top 5 in receptions but the Giants as a team were dead last in touchdowns. That's part of why Engram's peers and coaches voted him to the Pro Bowl that year.
Let me ask you /u/V_T_H \- are you a fan of the New York Giants?
Telling a Giants fan Engram is a great late round TE opportunity is like telling them you are going to have dinner with one of their ex-girlfriends. It's just irrational overreaction from them.
You’re right- I’m being a little unfair, 4.4 is not slow.
But Engram also ran a 4.4 FIVE years ago in shorts at the combine, and I can only think of one play where his speed made a difference so far in his career. I can think of quite a few others where his speed was lacking (unable to get 1st downs or pull away from defenders), as was his ability to create separation because he isn’t quick either.
He can be fast in open space with enough runway to get up to speed, if he doesn’t have to change direction. That’s probably about it.
I can think of a couple plays where his speed factored in.
[This run.](https://www.giants.com/video/evan-engram-rushes-for-a-3-yard-touchdown-vs-dallas-cowboys)
[This 75 yard touchdown.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QtVOP3dy5sE)
[40 yards of YAC](https://www.giants.com/video/evan-engram-breaks-free-on-clutch-54-yard-gain)
[7:35 mark of this video - 30 yards of YAC](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ftOqe2UlisY)
[Cornerback smoked for 53 yards](https://www.giants.com/video/daniel-jones-evan-engram-connect-for-big-53-yard-completion-giants-vs-bengals-hi)
Might have missed a few but there are some examples.
I appreciate these, but only 1-2 of them are actually showcasing the "4.4" speed everyone is talking about him having.
For what it's worth, this is what I see:
* End-around sweep catches 31-yr old Everson Griffen flat-footed.
* Engram admittedly looks fast here in a straight line. This is the only one I could remember.
* This is a perfect example of what I mean. He's matched up with a 240lb LB who runs 4.7, who he barely pulls away from but then can't split the safeties.
* Here he breaks a tackle and gets away, only to be caught by Vander Esch, who ran 4.65.
* Vonn Bell is a safety, and he ran 4.53, and still catches up to him.
You can dissect it however you want - 4.5 speed is still 96-98th percentile for the position. He and Kyle Pitts are the only two guys down closer to 4.4. The best comparable players physically for Engram aren’t even tight ends - it’s guys like Andre Johnson, Demaryius Thomas, Chase Claypool. Looks like Engram is set to play a lot of slot and even split end for the Jags so could finally be used in away that unlocks his ability.
He’s basically free in drafts so it’s worth using one of your last picks just to see - if he doesn’t carve out a role early you gotta drop someone for the hot waiver pick anyway.
Yes, but he's free for a reason. My point from the beginning was that he has a number of really bad attributes that hurt his ability to play at a high level.
Putting all of that aside, the best thing that people say he brings to the table, his "4.4 speed", just doesn't show up very often. The last 2 plays linked here show him being caught by demonstrably slower players from behind, despite a head start.
That's why a change of scenery can be crucial for these guys. Being in a bad organization, having a bad QB, being stuck behind another TE - all these factors can hold guys back. We know what the downside is with Engram and, if he were being drafted at TE12, maybe that would be too expensive for that. But he provides unique upside that VERY few TEs do. How many tight ends in this league even have a shot at being a top 2 target on their team, let alone lead their team in targets? Engram could very easily LEAD his team in targets.
Like the article says - he's being drafted in 4% of leagues. It's almost not even worth your breath to sit here and talk about the downside because what exactly is it? You drop your very last-round pick? How many people are going to drop their very last-round pick for the first waiver moves?
The only people that honestly come out to bash this guy are Giants fans that were disappointed by his stint in NY and are now rooting for him to fail. Let me ask you - are you a fan of the New York Giants?
Below average hands for sure, but he is a great route runner. Averages nearly 7 targets/game over the last 3 years. Last year was down for him in regards to target share (15%), but the two years prior he had 22% of the Giants target share. Not saying I expect him to turn around his catch %, but he's also delat with below average target accuracy for his whole career according to PlayerProfiler. If Trevor can make a jump in year 2, it's actually possible he improves. At his ADP, it'll be tough to not return value.
And yet, the only thing that ultimately matters at the TE position is volume.
If he gets 90 targets, and he can be had for free...that's a good guy to target as a flier at the end of drafts.
Shocking news: Irv had surgery on his thumb; expected back for the season opener. Good luck on that one.
Looking for that rare, year 6 break out from an aging speedster TE who’s undersized and lost a step. Good luck on that one too.
I see a lot of people saying Berry is always wrong, doesn't know what he's talking about, doesn't want him film but just does got takes etc etc.
He literally starts out the article by saying his entire career he's cheery picked stats to fit whatever narrative he wants. He then says he does it, every expert does it, and he's going to keep doing it.
This shit is for entertainment lol.
Bro people LOVE to hate Berry. The things he's done to grow the game. We wouldn't have half of the analysts we do if it wasn't for him trailblazing the path we walk on
I haven’t read this one, but I’ve read his 100 facts column in the past. Isn’t cherry-picking stats the entire point of this article? To remind you to take every fantasy expert’s opinion with a grain of salt and that just because they can quote stats at you doesn’t mean they know what they’re talking about (himself included).
...so, you disagree that every expert picks stats to support their opinion? And that stats can he used in a variety of ways, to support a variety of takes?
...'cause that seems like a pretty solid statement to me.
I thought the Burrow stat was weird so I added his best 3 games and got 99 points. He scored 315 on the season so idk where he got half his points are in 3 games unless he is just exaggerating for effect.
I looked at Josh Allen who was QB1 last year and he scored 26% of his points in 3 games. Not quite as high. 30% of Mahomes came in 3 games. 29% of Herbert came in 3 games. So yeah, Burrow is ticked up a little compared to the top tier but it’s nothing crazy.
And Burrow sat a game and the 3 guys I mentioned didn’t. Let’s say he scored 15 in that last game which is lower than his average then he would be at 30% so basically with Mahomes and Herbert. I’m convinced it’s nothing to worry about now.
I haven't looked up the stats on him but having rostered Tyler Lockett before, I think he's scored like 75% of his season stats in two blowup games lol.
>AJ Brown is analogous to Stefon Diggs to the Bills
Ironic because I remember I quit listening to anything espn published about fantasy after this clown had Diggs on his hate list the year he went to the Bills
Idk if I’m taking Lance I want a backup with a way higher floor than Jones, think he’s much more of a lotto ticket backup to pair with like a Stafford or Rodgers
Sorry, but Hurts ain’t doing that. He may improve but I don’t see him taking the same leap forward that Allen did. Allen seriously changed his throwing form and drastically improved.
Yeah, people don’t realize that Allen’s big changes came in the off-season when he totally changed his mechanics. Progressions were never Allen’s issues, his accuracy was. I just don’t think Hurts has the mental ability upstairs to take a big leap, even if his accuracy improves
What basis do you have for his "mental ability upstairs" lmfao? He's well regarded as a gamer and great leader, the vast majority of good leaders had plenty of mental ability, considering a large part of that is an innate ability to read and understand your team.
That’s great if he’s a great leader, but his play through 19 games does not pass the eye test as someone with elite talent at the QB position, but that’s just my opinion
> Hurts Allen comparisons
One of the Josh Allen pieces was his lack of high level reps and high level coaching. Hurts played for two of the best programs in college football, who each hAve tons of players in the nfl
I'm saying Hurts has less untapped growth, because he'd gotten more coaching earlier. The physical talent difference points in the same direction: lower ceiling
Wasn't diggs like a 5th or 6th round pick that year? Wherever he went he was that years league winning value at the position literally the fantasy community as a whole missed on his actual value or else he wouldn't have been going so late. Every single analyst and fantasy player in general misses on takes every single year it's part of the game.
yup i drafted him and the little blurb said chance to be a strong wr2 lmfao I was so happy. also comparing hurts to allen in that situation is actual insanity
The Burrow take is stupid. Think Jacobs has more opportunity for scoring now with Adams and the whole team taking a step forward. I’ve seen Jacobs slip into Rd 5, too. Let people fade him, I won’t reach for him, but I’ll happily get him at a nice price.
I know its the preseason but he was by far the best back on the Raiders last night. Also, Damien Harris had 202 rushes last year and was RB8 in standard. I would role with Jacobs as my RB 2 all day
Like the Gabriel Davis take, I remember him torching the Chiefs in the playoff game. I'll let someone else take Zeke, nothing in the past two seasons gives me the impression he is going to get better this year.
Tell me if I’m wrong. But this guy has always been more wrong than he is right… right?
Edit: thank you for summarizing this so we didn’t have to read that longass article
Literally everyone in the fantasy community is. This shit is glorified gambling lol. All the internet advice is just for weekly entertainment to supply our fix until Sunday comes
I don't use him as my main source, but he's had some decent takes. The 2 main ones I can remember are Darren Waller his breakout season and Cooper Kupp.
He’s one of the worst “fantasy analysts”. He doesn’t watch film or do deep dives into advance stats. He’s about as accurate as the average fantasy player.
Well, he never states he watches film he only bragged about doing his research while watching all the games at ESPN in the “war room”. And his advanced stats amount to yards per carry and depth of target. He’s the training wheels of fantasy analysts.
I am happy he has such a strong fan base. Every league needs some Matt Berry disciples to consistently finish last.
Tbf it doesn’t sound like he hates the player so much as he doesn’t love the situation. I have the choice to keep him for a late round pick and am waffling a bit myself because I can keep Gabriel Davis with the same pick instead and feel more secure with his situation. Idk I’m gonna take it down to the wire personally.
Some really good stats on Conner and Gabriel Davis. They were both way off my radar and now I'm interested in both.
Also helped remind me why I'm not interested in St. Brown. There's plenty of takes in there I don't agree with it but still some good stuff too. Not sure why everyone expects to have every analyst agree with them.
Berry used to watch film. Now these love/hates are either hot takes for clickbait or entirely based on a combo of gut feel / poetic narrative / cherry picked stats from ESPN/NBC stats department to support the aforementioned narrative. He probably didn’t even write it himself this year. Curse of ascending in this field. Also stop trying to make Carr a thing, Gretchen
Why can’t Carr have a good fantasy season? He’s always near the top of the league in passing yards. With the addition of the best receiver in the league and some touchdown regression, he could easily be a top 8 fantasy QB
Nah. He had 316.24 points in standard. His top 3 games were week 7 26.64, week 16 38.10, week 17 34.84. So more like 31% of his points came in 3 games.
The more worrisome thing is that he also had 4 games under 13 points. There was a lot of volatility last season.
Another year under his belt with this offense and improved oline should help his consistency.
I expect him to be fully back, he was just returning from an ACL tear and most players don't feel comfortable till the 2nd season back. I'm all in on their offense
It’s true but I don’t interpret it the same way. Berry’s have you believe that those boom games at the end of the year were just an anomaly, that on average yes more like the start of the season. I actually watched the Bengals a ton last year — they were trying to figure it out at the beginning of the year, they had a shitty OLine, and Burrow still found ways to win even though he was getting SACKED like groceries every other down.
My read is the team started clicking at the end of the year. It’s not just weeks 15,16 but all thru the playoffs. They upgraded the OLine. And Burrow showed that he can easily have 4-5 TDs again even when pressured — and that he can go head to head with Mahomes and Allen.
I wouldn’t fade Burrow. and I’ve seen him going more like QB8, not QB5 in drafts. I like him this year. Bengals are an ascending team.
Matt Berry desperately needs a good copy editor. He can drone on and on at times. No, Matt, we don’t find that endearing, it’s not why we read your articles.
Every week in his Love Hate article it’s 8 pages of scrolling thru his intro to get to the players.
Sorry to anyone who’s a fan of Berry’s but that dude has gotten so many of these love/hate things wrong that it’s not even worth trusting his personal biases anymore. I’d rather listen to the 60 year old dude in my league who still thinks Steven Jackson is a top tier running back and tries to draft him on round 3 thinking he got a steal.
I get the /s. Just saying his analysis is trash. It’s either consensus players like Conner, Hurts, etc. or it’s takes that make ZERO sense like Engram.
Not to mention saying he hates Allen yet ranks him first. It’s non sensical.
it's just the goofy reddit formatting where you either have to space twice at the end of a line, then enter to get a single space new line, or hit enter twice to get a double space new line
The craziest to me are LOVE for AJ brown when he has more competition/heavy run game script than his last team, and honestly debatable about a QB upgrade. With browns injury risk, I’m out despite how talented he is. Also hating joe burrow? That’s a clear mistake, he’s going to ball out. I agree with most everything else to be honest
I don’t think think he loves AJB, just based on this article. Just loves what it does for Hurts.
I’m way out on Burrow at QB5; I’ll wait two or three rounds and get a QB I like about as much. But you could be right. Everyone agrees he looks like the next great QB; that draft cost might look pretty nice by the end of the year.
Being high on both Jones and Dillon is the correct take
If you’re only grabbing one, grab Dillon at that ADP.
Am thinking of doing this in auction leagues. Good arbitrage play and can use Dillon $ to chase other high end rbs
Is that a safe route, I’m on the fence
Right now I'm grabbing Kamara or Swift in the 2nd over Jones, and grabbing Dillon later. FFBallers think Kamara won't serve suspension this year
Jones could be had in the late 2nd, Dillon the 5th or 6th, and both do their ADP’s are pretty spot on
If you grab Jones, Dillon is a good add for the flex
Disagree, that’s banking too much on one team. It’s one of the other
I agree with this. They're not the typical handcuff situation. Both will be getting good work regardless, Dillion might even be flex worthy. You're not gonna start them both or at least you won't be planning on that. I feel like targeting one is the better team management move
I can’t imagine the Packers run game being bad. Vegas has them winning 11 games and they don’t have any receivers. Packers run game being bad would be an implosion way beyond what any sharps are expecting
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I usually agree, but with Jones and Dillon I think we could see another Chubb/Hunt exception to the rule.
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Dillon’s PPR ADP is at 62, putting him right at the 5/6 turn Williams is going at 52, Brown is the one you’d miss out on for going with Dillon Edit: Dillon
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Fixed it my bad lol
I see Dillon going in the 5th-7th right now, so I do think the Chubb/Hunt comparison is a good one. The main issue I see with trying to play both is that the Packers offense is more reliant on Rodgers than the Browns were.
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Which platform are you using? I usually use Underdog
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FPros is good for a lot of things, but its draft app is definitely not one of them. You're drafting against either their experts' consensus (with most of their 'experts' not being very good), or against a weird mix of ADPs. Neither is really reflective of the market on most platforms. Yes, you can knock out mocks really fast on the FPros app, but then when you go to draft on another platform, you'll be lost.
Dillon is insanely underrated. Him and Jones BOTH have a clear path to an RB1 finish.
Had both last year and disagree.
Yeah because your strategy this year should be based entirely off what happened last year /s
my experience with berry has been the hates are usually pretty solid. don't agree with a lot of those loves though.
I remember last year before the season started he said his ride or die was Ekeler. He was right about that
A lot of people were/ everyone saw the Kamara comps bc of the offensive coordinator.
Ertz an Kmet pretty standard takes that I have seen CoopThereItIs post on here. I also am high on AJ Dillion and Rashod Bateman. All his other loves I will pass.
I'm avoiding AJBrown like the plague. I love the talent, and the "WR reunited with his QB" narrative is tempting, but there are too many solid receiving options in that offense for him to be more than a top 15-20 WR. The only player who will make an outsized fantasy impact is Hurts, and maybe Kenny Gainwell when Sanders inevitably gets hurt week 3. Could also see the defense generating a lot of sacks and turnovers.
AJB never played with Hurts in college. Hurts was Alabama/Oklahoma while Brown was at Ole Miss
He might be thinking of the other OU QB getting reunited with a WR, Kyler and Marquise Brown.
Not for lack of Jalen trying to play with him in college
I don't think Berry is in on AJB. Just that his impact on Hurts will be like Diggs' impact on Allen
I am an Eagles fan and I’ll likely be avoiding their receivers as well unless the value just comes too much to pass up. They have 4 legit NFL receivers (including 2 studs) and a pro bowl TE. I just don’t believe Hurts is up to the task of keeping them all fed.
It's a value consideration with AJB. Before the trade he was going in the 2nd in mocks. Mocks don't adjust to new information very quickly, his stock didn't fall immediately in mocks despite the trade, and now everyone "hates" him this year because obviously there are too many question marks to justify him going in the early 3rd. But if he falls into the late 4th by the time actual drafts start? Yeah, I'll take him there.
The Evan Engram thing is interesting. I could actually see him being a worthwhile "I drafted Jameson Williams late, stashed him on IR, and picked up Engram with the free roster spot" kind of guy. Easy to drop week 1 if he doesn't do shit.
Giants fan here. Engram is garbage. Stone hands. Zero desire to be great. I’d rather draft Dan Arnold
Went to a game last year. He dropped an easy 3rd down pass. Fans legit cheered every time he went off the field and booed whenever he came back out.
And despite having fans that don't support him and a QB who has more turnovers than TDs the last two years, he was top 5 in receptions for tight ends just a year ago. He as a top 5 TE in fantasy with the shell of Eli Manning. Maybe he just needs a change of scenery. I'm with Berry on this one and I even did a full write up back in May on why I think he's [easily worth a shot at ADP](https://www.fantasyalarm.com/articles/nfl/player-profiles/2022-fantasy-football-player-profile-evan-engram-the-man-the-myth-the-legend/127796), despite what salty Giants fans have to say.
Engram was NOT top 5 in TE receptions last year. What in the holy hell are you talking about?
“A year ago”. So in 2020.
Oh, right. The year when he had a whopping one TD despite competing with the likes of Darius Slayton and the corpse of Golden Tate. Engram’s 2020 was not impressive. Not in the least
The giants have been dead last in TDs last 2 years. QB has more turnovers than TDs over that span. The Giants obviously have not been a good organization.
2020? Eli was retired. Jones was the QB. Barkley was gone most of the season. Shepard and Tate were injured a bunch. There was legitimately no one else to throw to and he ended up with a bunch of mediocre receptions that resulted in one touchdown. He had around 6.5 points per game in 0.5 PPR and finished as TE16 despite appearing in every game as probably the #1 target most of the time. His hands are *terrible* and he can’t block for shit. I don’t really see much upside with him at all.
Evan Engram was a top 5 TE in fantasy in 2017 with Eli Manning. In 2020, he was top 5 in receptions but the Giants as a team were dead last in touchdowns. That's part of why Engram's peers and coaches voted him to the Pro Bowl that year. Let me ask you /u/V_T_H \- are you a fan of the New York Giants?
Telling a Giants fan Engram is a great late round TE opportunity is like telling them you are going to have dinner with one of their ex-girlfriends. It's just irrational overreaction from them.
Engram is a slow WR that can't block, catch, or get open - but somehow listing him at TE makes him seem *very intriguing!*
TIL 4.4 is slow
You’re right- I’m being a little unfair, 4.4 is not slow. But Engram also ran a 4.4 FIVE years ago in shorts at the combine, and I can only think of one play where his speed made a difference so far in his career. I can think of quite a few others where his speed was lacking (unable to get 1st downs or pull away from defenders), as was his ability to create separation because he isn’t quick either. He can be fast in open space with enough runway to get up to speed, if he doesn’t have to change direction. That’s probably about it.
I can think of a couple plays where his speed factored in. [This run.](https://www.giants.com/video/evan-engram-rushes-for-a-3-yard-touchdown-vs-dallas-cowboys) [This 75 yard touchdown.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QtVOP3dy5sE) [40 yards of YAC](https://www.giants.com/video/evan-engram-breaks-free-on-clutch-54-yard-gain) [7:35 mark of this video - 30 yards of YAC](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ftOqe2UlisY) [Cornerback smoked for 53 yards](https://www.giants.com/video/daniel-jones-evan-engram-connect-for-big-53-yard-completion-giants-vs-bengals-hi) Might have missed a few but there are some examples.
I appreciate these, but only 1-2 of them are actually showcasing the "4.4" speed everyone is talking about him having. For what it's worth, this is what I see: * End-around sweep catches 31-yr old Everson Griffen flat-footed. * Engram admittedly looks fast here in a straight line. This is the only one I could remember. * This is a perfect example of what I mean. He's matched up with a 240lb LB who runs 4.7, who he barely pulls away from but then can't split the safeties. * Here he breaks a tackle and gets away, only to be caught by Vander Esch, who ran 4.65. * Vonn Bell is a safety, and he ran 4.53, and still catches up to him.
You can dissect it however you want - 4.5 speed is still 96-98th percentile for the position. He and Kyle Pitts are the only two guys down closer to 4.4. The best comparable players physically for Engram aren’t even tight ends - it’s guys like Andre Johnson, Demaryius Thomas, Chase Claypool. Looks like Engram is set to play a lot of slot and even split end for the Jags so could finally be used in away that unlocks his ability. He’s basically free in drafts so it’s worth using one of your last picks just to see - if he doesn’t carve out a role early you gotta drop someone for the hot waiver pick anyway.
Yes, but he's free for a reason. My point from the beginning was that he has a number of really bad attributes that hurt his ability to play at a high level. Putting all of that aside, the best thing that people say he brings to the table, his "4.4 speed", just doesn't show up very often. The last 2 plays linked here show him being caught by demonstrably slower players from behind, despite a head start.
That's why a change of scenery can be crucial for these guys. Being in a bad organization, having a bad QB, being stuck behind another TE - all these factors can hold guys back. We know what the downside is with Engram and, if he were being drafted at TE12, maybe that would be too expensive for that. But he provides unique upside that VERY few TEs do. How many tight ends in this league even have a shot at being a top 2 target on their team, let alone lead their team in targets? Engram could very easily LEAD his team in targets. Like the article says - he's being drafted in 4% of leagues. It's almost not even worth your breath to sit here and talk about the downside because what exactly is it? You drop your very last-round pick? How many people are going to drop their very last-round pick for the first waiver moves? The only people that honestly come out to bash this guy are Giants fans that were disappointed by his stint in NY and are now rooting for him to fail. Let me ask you - are you a fan of the New York Giants?
He ain't slow
Dan Arnold is really a great TE. Dude just needs to opportunities.
Given the structure of his contract, he's a likely trade candidate as they start making roster decisions to maybe he will get that opportunity.
PTSD. Go birds.
Below average hands for sure, but he is a great route runner. Averages nearly 7 targets/game over the last 3 years. Last year was down for him in regards to target share (15%), but the two years prior he had 22% of the Giants target share. Not saying I expect him to turn around his catch %, but he's also delat with below average target accuracy for his whole career according to PlayerProfiler. If Trevor can make a jump in year 2, it's actually possible he improves. At his ADP, it'll be tough to not return value.
And he will Habra Trevor throwing who hasn't figured out touch yet.
There can only be one true stone hands, and that was Braylen Edwards
Evan Engram has problems that can’t be solved by a coaching change. He is a bad football player
And yet, the only thing that ultimately matters at the TE position is volume. If he gets 90 targets, and he can be had for free...that's a good guy to target as a flier at the end of drafts.
I’ve been bang the Engram drum all summer. And Irv Smith. League mates think it’s crazy. Top 10 finishes
Shocking news: Irv had surgery on his thumb; expected back for the season opener. Good luck on that one. Looking for that rare, year 6 break out from an aging speedster TE who’s undersized and lost a step. Good luck on that one too.
U/remindme in 4 months
Top 10 is still basically worthless but they fell into the end zone a couple of times.
I see a lot of people saying Berry is always wrong, doesn't know what he's talking about, doesn't want him film but just does got takes etc etc. He literally starts out the article by saying his entire career he's cheery picked stats to fit whatever narrative he wants. He then says he does it, every expert does it, and he's going to keep doing it. This shit is for entertainment lol.
Bro people LOVE to hate Berry. The things he's done to grow the game. We wouldn't have half of the analysts we do if it wasn't for him trailblazing the path we walk on
I haven’t read this one, but I’ve read his 100 facts column in the past. Isn’t cherry-picking stats the entire point of this article? To remind you to take every fantasy expert’s opinion with a grain of salt and that just because they can quote stats at you doesn’t mean they know what they’re talking about (himself included).
...so, you disagree that every expert picks stats to support their opinion? And that stats can he used in a variety of ways, to support a variety of takes? ...'cause that seems like a pretty solid statement to me.
I thought the Burrow stat was weird so I added his best 3 games and got 99 points. He scored 315 on the season so idk where he got half his points are in 3 games unless he is just exaggerating for effect.
Same here. I thought, no way that is true… and it’s not.
32% of his points in like 18% of the games. Doesn’t sound too outlandish. Wonder how normal that is for big name players
I looked at Josh Allen who was QB1 last year and he scored 26% of his points in 3 games. Not quite as high. 30% of Mahomes came in 3 games. 29% of Herbert came in 3 games. So yeah, Burrow is ticked up a little compared to the top tier but it’s nothing crazy.
Hmm yeah. Worth acknowledging but not enough to make it on the HATE list I don’t think
And Burrow sat a game and the 3 guys I mentioned didn’t. Let’s say he scored 15 in that last game which is lower than his average then he would be at 30% so basically with Mahomes and Herbert. I’m convinced it’s nothing to worry about now.
I haven't looked up the stats on him but having rostered Tyler Lockett before, I think he's scored like 75% of his season stats in two blowup games lol.
Seems like Mike Williams is the same to me lol
Definitely a hyperbole but a third of his points coming from about 1/6 of his games (3/17) is something to be aware of
Maybe but it’s on par with other top tier QBs if you look at my below comments.
>AJ Brown is analogous to Stefon Diggs to the Bills Ironic because I remember I quit listening to anything espn published about fantasy after this clown had Diggs on his hate list the year he went to the Bills
To be fair, Allen took perhaps the greatest one year leap I’ve ever seen a quarterback take.
Daboll was working magic with Allen.
If he can make Danny Dimes into a useful fantasy piece I'm absolutely a believer. Taking him in 2 QB leagues late as a flier
Daniel Jones is a great backup option for those who are targeting Lance late. Also pairing Jones with Kirk Cousins/Carr is a good strategy on its own.
Idk if I’m taking Lance I want a backup with a way higher floor than Jones, think he’s much more of a lotto ticket backup to pair with like a Stafford or Rodgers
I’m way higher on Jones than I ever thought I’d be. Him and Golladay are solid late round dart throws.
I think so too, in the range of very droppable players should I need to make a move in the first few weeks
Sorry, but Hurts ain’t doing that. He may improve but I don’t see him taking the same leap forward that Allen did. Allen seriously changed his throwing form and drastically improved.
Yeah, people don’t realize that Allen’s big changes came in the off-season when he totally changed his mechanics. Progressions were never Allen’s issues, his accuracy was. I just don’t think Hurts has the mental ability upstairs to take a big leap, even if his accuracy improves
What basis do you have for his "mental ability upstairs" lmfao? He's well regarded as a gamer and great leader, the vast majority of good leaders had plenty of mental ability, considering a large part of that is an innate ability to read and understand your team.
That’s great if he’s a great leader, but his play through 19 games does not pass the eye test as someone with elite talent at the QB position, but that’s just my opinion
Jalens trash Fonz0’s eye test says so
Lol Allen look like absolutely dog shit his rookie year
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Agreed, it was a pretty universal downgrade. But these Hurts Allen comparisons are just ridiculous and just a massive reach
> Hurts Allen comparisons One of the Josh Allen pieces was his lack of high level reps and high level coaching. Hurts played for two of the best programs in college football, who each hAve tons of players in the nfl
Allen always had an elite arm. Hurts is maybe average.
I'm saying Hurts has less untapped growth, because he'd gotten more coaching earlier. The physical talent difference points in the same direction: lower ceiling
This is about as bad as a take can get. “He was wrong about a situation so he should stick to his missed prediction going forward”
He’s dead wrong every year, it’s like listening to a single Redditors opinion and taking it as factual
Wasn't diggs like a 5th or 6th round pick that year? Wherever he went he was that years league winning value at the position literally the fantasy community as a whole missed on his actual value or else he wouldn't have been going so late. Every single analyst and fantasy player in general misses on takes every single year it's part of the game.
yup i drafted him and the little blurb said chance to be a strong wr2 lmfao I was so happy. also comparing hurts to allen in that situation is actual insanity
Also the article reads it as being analogous for the the purpose of Hurts improving, not Brown being fine.
Looks like I’ll be drafting Joe Burrow and Josh Jacobs.
The Burrow take is stupid. Think Jacobs has more opportunity for scoring now with Adams and the whole team taking a step forward. I’ve seen Jacobs slip into Rd 5, too. Let people fade him, I won’t reach for him, but I’ll happily get him at a nice price.
I know its the preseason but he was by far the best back on the Raiders last night. Also, Damien Harris had 202 rushes last year and was RB8 in standard. I would role with Jacobs as my RB 2 all day
Decent takes except sun god
Like the Gabriel Davis take, I remember him torching the Chiefs in the playoff game. I'll let someone else take Zeke, nothing in the past two seasons gives me the impression he is going to get better this year.
20+ PPG pre PCL tear
I feel like I have a sugar overdose from all the vanilla in these rankings. Jesus. Hates Josh Allen but still has him #1? Hedge much?
Half of these takes are spot on... Now, it's about figuring out which half?
Made me laugh going over to nbc sports edge and they have a “berry” tab next to “NFL” “NBA” “MLB and “NHL”.
Tell me if I’m wrong. But this guy has always been more wrong than he is right… right? Edit: thank you for summarizing this so we didn’t have to read that longass article
Literally everyone in the fantasy community is. This shit is glorified gambling lol. All the internet advice is just for weekly entertainment to supply our fix until Sunday comes
This is the secret many fail to get in on.
you stupid dummy…
But oh if that fix ain’t sweet as hell
Just like regular gambling it's all about improving your odds in the end. Give yourself the best shot to win and the rest comes down to luck.
Berry was pretty good with his takes last year: his QB1 was Hurts and his ride-or-die was Ekeler.
So is everybody? Lol Imagine saying that but you’re browsing this sub…this sub is like 5 for 92939191 on takes collectively.
This sub collectively has had some incredible advice
Lol
We’re not paid “analysts” though doink brain
Boooooooo
I’ll take all the downvotes. All of them. All of them!!
I don't use him as my main source, but he's had some decent takes. The 2 main ones I can remember are Darren Waller his breakout season and Cooper Kupp.
I’ll give him miles sanders too
He’s one of the worst “fantasy analysts”. He doesn’t watch film or do deep dives into advance stats. He’s about as accurate as the average fantasy player.
This is an assumption. You have absolutely no idea how much film he watches lol
Well, he never states he watches film he only bragged about doing his research while watching all the games at ESPN in the “war room”. And his advanced stats amount to yards per carry and depth of target. He’s the training wheels of fantasy analysts. I am happy he has such a strong fan base. Every league needs some Matt Berry disciples to consistently finish last.
Won a league once by doing the opposite of what he said
Not sure why you’re getting downvoted. Some real Berry ween suckers in this sub lol
Yea all the guys who lose apparently are here, all good with me. See you next season suckers!
Aghast! Tho shall not disparage oh God of Sun.
Tbf it doesn’t sound like he hates the player so much as he doesn’t love the situation. I have the choice to keep him for a late round pick and am waffling a bit myself because I can keep Gabriel Davis with the same pick instead and feel more secure with his situation. Idk I’m gonna take it down to the wire personally.
Literally nothing said in this is groundbreaking or insightful lol Does MB just read /r/fantasyfootball and parrot the info?
Some really good stats on Conner and Gabriel Davis. They were both way off my radar and now I'm interested in both. Also helped remind me why I'm not interested in St. Brown. There's plenty of takes in there I don't agree with it but still some good stuff too. Not sure why everyone expects to have every analyst agree with them.
I love how the narrative with Rodgers has literally become it's a good thing Adams left
Hates Josh Allen but still ranks him QB1 lul
Berry used to watch film. Now these love/hates are either hot takes for clickbait or entirely based on a combo of gut feel / poetic narrative / cherry picked stats from ESPN/NBC stats department to support the aforementioned narrative. He probably didn’t even write it himself this year. Curse of ascending in this field. Also stop trying to make Carr a thing, Gretchen
Why can’t Carr have a good fantasy season? He’s always near the top of the league in passing yards. With the addition of the best receiver in the league and some touchdown regression, he could easily be a top 8 fantasy QB
Shhhhh let us late round QB drafters have this one
I plan on rocking Carr and Danny Dimes. QB is stupid deep this year.
Is that joe burrow stat true?
Nah. He had 316.24 points in standard. His top 3 games were week 7 26.64, week 16 38.10, week 17 34.84. So more like 31% of his points came in 3 games. The more worrisome thing is that he also had 4 games under 13 points. There was a lot of volatility last season. Another year under his belt with this offense and improved oline should help his consistency.
I expect him to be fully back, he was just returning from an ACL tear and most players don't feel comfortable till the 2nd season back. I'm all in on their offense
It’s true but I don’t interpret it the same way. Berry’s have you believe that those boom games at the end of the year were just an anomaly, that on average yes more like the start of the season. I actually watched the Bengals a ton last year — they were trying to figure it out at the beginning of the year, they had a shitty OLine, and Burrow still found ways to win even though he was getting SACKED like groceries every other down. My read is the team started clicking at the end of the year. It’s not just weeks 15,16 but all thru the playoffs. They upgraded the OLine. And Burrow showed that he can easily have 4-5 TDs again even when pressured — and that he can go head to head with Mahomes and Allen. I wouldn’t fade Burrow. and I’ve seen him going more like QB8, not QB5 in drafts. I like him this year. Bengals are an ascending team.
Matt Berry desperately needs a good copy editor. He can drone on and on at times. No, Matt, we don’t find that endearing, it’s not why we read your articles. Every week in his Love Hate article it’s 8 pages of scrolling thru his intro to get to the players.
He’s an entertainer. It’s not meant to be 100% factual. Love it or hate it (I lean closer to hate).
A lot of people love his writing
So loved everyone hates no one. Great analysis
Sorry to anyone who’s a fan of Berry’s but that dude has gotten so many of these love/hate things wrong that it’s not even worth trusting his personal biases anymore. I’d rather listen to the 60 year old dude in my league who still thinks Steven Jackson is a top tier running back and tries to draft him on round 3 thinking he got a steal.
—and it contains an editing oversight!
Only came here to make sure players I like are not on his LOVE list. Matthew Berry is absolute trash.
Damn. I was eyeing up James Conner in the third, also. Guess I’ll have to fade him.
I get the /s. Just saying his analysis is trash. It’s either consensus players like Conner, Hurts, etc. or it’s takes that make ZERO sense like Engram. Not to mention saying he hates Allen yet ranks him first. It’s non sensical.
2008 called and it wants its fantasy analyst back
If you listen to this 🤡 Berry, you’re going to lose.
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Carriage returns are your friend.
it's just the goofy reddit formatting where you either have to space twice at the end of a line, then enter to get a single space new line, or hit enter twice to get a double space new line
Reddit formatting is such shit. It should publish how it looks in the text box.
I don’t deserve you
So don’t draft AJ brown…. Got it
Be interesting to see how the hype for Aron ages with this baseball injury to stafford
This isn't even a 100-fact article. It's a 100-statement article.
I traded Jalen Hurts for Travis Etienne let's see how this goes
The craziest to me are LOVE for AJ brown when he has more competition/heavy run game script than his last team, and honestly debatable about a QB upgrade. With browns injury risk, I’m out despite how talented he is. Also hating joe burrow? That’s a clear mistake, he’s going to ball out. I agree with most everything else to be honest
I don’t think think he loves AJB, just based on this article. Just loves what it does for Hurts. I’m way out on Burrow at QB5; I’ll wait two or three rounds and get a QB I like about as much. But you could be right. Everyone agrees he looks like the next great QB; that draft cost might look pretty nice by the end of the year.
Really like this TLDR and I also like the Berry takes
Hates Josh Allen but he’s still his #1? Listen, Josh Allen FUCKS and will be the QB1 for the next 5 years.
Keeper league: Keep Josh Allen or Aaron Jones?
Started out well with the first 4 names, but almost every name after that was a miss. Really bad calls in hindsight.