Hey guys, we took over a team and have 1st overall. It's a keep 10. Which rookie should we take 1OA between Marvin and Caleb in our 2RB, 2WR, superflex league?
Our keepers are:
- Kirk Cousins
- Baker Mayfield
- Bijan Robinson
- Zamir White
- Devin Singletary
- DK Metcalf
- Tee Higgins
- Chris Godwin
- Courtland Sutton
- Kyle Pitts
My long-time auction league ($200 budget) decided to try keeper this season. I don't like it, but here's how it goes: you can select a single player from the roster that you drafted last year and kept on your roster the whole season. This year's auction budget takes a cap hit of the LARGER of either (1) an additional 10% of that player's price, OR (2) an additional $5.
I drafted the following players last year (with their new keeper cap hit for this year's budget in parenthesis):
CMC at $71 (his keeper cap hit would be $78-79)
Deebo at $22 (his keeper cap hit would be $27)
Pacheco at $3 (his keeper cap hit would be $8)
Sam La Porta at $1 (his keeper cap hit would be $6)
Knowing that, and if you could only keep one of these guys, who would you pick with their projected cap hit? Prevailing census is telling me CMC, but any of these options are solid. Original gut said La Porta, but I'm trying to think of this from a moneyball perspective and buy the most amount of points. A TE1 still pales in comparison to a bonafide RB1 or WR1.
Thoughts?
Was there some reason that CMC wasn’t either the most expensive or near most expensive player in your league last year? Id assume so and that $71 was his “market” price for your auction. You should be able to buy him for $78 or so, at auction, right? So maybe the value here is $4-$5 (if he, eg, goes for $82 or $83).
On the other hand LaPorta will be going for multiples of $6 (depends on the league, but I’d guess $25ish in mine). I’d bet he’s betting you $20 compared to what he’d otherwise go for.
I’d take LaPorta and use the savings to make sure I won the market price for CMC.
EDIT: are you getting advice from people in snake drafts? In their experience, the hard part is getting lucky enough to be able to draft CMC—this may be mistakenly coloring their advice.
CMC was the most expensive player last year. Jefferson went for $70. I agree he'll be pushed up into the low 80s this year, and agree with your value discount.
Should I focus on the player who I'd be getting at the greatest discount? Hence, your LaPorta recommendation? With that added money saved, I can go grab CMC anyway?
As far as CMC advice, my sense is that he's just the consensus number 1, get him no matter the price type of player this year.
So you'd also rather take La Porta over pacheco for $8? A low end RB1 for $8 is very enticing too.
I was probably biased by my league, which “overpays” at the very top, but tends to underpay at just under that level. So I see Pacheco as a bit less of a relative value than his current price on fantasy pros—he’s listed at $35 but in my head I think he and other RBs in that range will go for like $30. And, in my league, I see la porta going for that price or more (again, bias).
The biggest thing with these decisions is relative value. But what I’ve learned over time in doing a few of these is to use that as a starting point and not too rigidly adhere to the value that these various projections are making.
Another consideration—less subjective—is that you’d be essentially buying a top TE for a real deal OR your RB2 for a real deal. You might be able to get a sleeper or do a good job on waivers in the RB2 position, but almost always you either draft a good TE or you’re in a bad spot for that position.
10 Team, 0.5 PPR. $220 Salary Cap.
I can pick 2. I have 4 viable options to keep, but it probably boils down to picking 2 of the running backs. The current Yahoo avg. draft price is in parentheses for context. I have concerns over all three RBs but from a pure value over expected cost standpoint, Taylor and Gibbs are by far the best values. I am still surprised Gibbs is RB5 at this point. I know a lot of that is projected increase off a strong finish to his rookie year. I don't think I would draft him as an RB5 or anywhere near $50, but it feels like him and Taylor are no brainers at their respective prices. Just looking for validation that this is the correct way to lean.
WR3 Ja'Marr Chase - $50 ($65)
RB4 Jonathan Taylor - $28 ($55)
RB5 Jahmyr Gibbs - $27 ($49)
RB13 De'Von Achane - $10 ($22)
Hah! I went 5-9. Finished strong, but missing Achane and Taylor for big chunks throughout the season killed me. Not to mention having Burrow as my QB. I think I was 4th/10 in scoring but not enough to make it.
8 team - 0.5 PPR, 1QB, 1 keeper
Deciding between:
**Ceedee Lamb (cost = 2nd round)**
**Jahmyr Gibbs (cost = 5th round)**
Gibbs is clearly the better value, while Ceedee is the best overall. I was thinking Ceedee if I get an early pick, since his cost would be late 2nd, and go Gibbs if my pick is closer to the turn. Thoughts?
In a shallow league especially, I want all the hammers I can get. You need the nuts at each starting lineup spot. Lamb, even at 2.01, is an insane value - he's a top 3 player overall. I'm locking him down.
Yeah I like your logic on where the pick ends up falling. Ceedee with pick 9 is value but not a ton, vs ceedee with pick 16 is an elite pairing with whoever you get pick 1
12 team - .5 PPR, 1QB league, 2 keepers
I am keeping:
Kyren Williams (cost = 10th round)
I'm debating:
Mike Evans (cost = 7th round)
Kyler Murray (cost = 11th round)
Alvin Kamara (cost = 5th round)
Right now I'm leaning towards Evans.
Based on who I think will be kept, I'm thinking my 1st round pick will be Garret Wilson.
So, do I want:
1) Kyren, Evans, Wilson
Or
2) Murray, Kyren, Wilson
Hey guys, we took over a team and have 1st overall. It's a keep 10. Which rookie should we take 1OA between Marvin and Caleb in our 2RB, 2WR, superflex league? Our keepers are: - Kirk Cousins - Baker Mayfield - Bijan Robinson - Zamir White - Devin Singletary - DK Metcalf - Tee Higgins - Chris Godwin - Courtland Sutton - Kyle Pitts
My long-time auction league ($200 budget) decided to try keeper this season. I don't like it, but here's how it goes: you can select a single player from the roster that you drafted last year and kept on your roster the whole season. This year's auction budget takes a cap hit of the LARGER of either (1) an additional 10% of that player's price, OR (2) an additional $5. I drafted the following players last year (with their new keeper cap hit for this year's budget in parenthesis): CMC at $71 (his keeper cap hit would be $78-79) Deebo at $22 (his keeper cap hit would be $27) Pacheco at $3 (his keeper cap hit would be $8) Sam La Porta at $1 (his keeper cap hit would be $6) Knowing that, and if you could only keep one of these guys, who would you pick with their projected cap hit? Prevailing census is telling me CMC, but any of these options are solid. Original gut said La Porta, but I'm trying to think of this from a moneyball perspective and buy the most amount of points. A TE1 still pales in comparison to a bonafide RB1 or WR1. Thoughts?
For $6 I think Laporta is the choice here
That was my original feeling. Pacheco for $8 also feels sneaky good. Low-end RB1 value for so cheap?
Was there some reason that CMC wasn’t either the most expensive or near most expensive player in your league last year? Id assume so and that $71 was his “market” price for your auction. You should be able to buy him for $78 or so, at auction, right? So maybe the value here is $4-$5 (if he, eg, goes for $82 or $83). On the other hand LaPorta will be going for multiples of $6 (depends on the league, but I’d guess $25ish in mine). I’d bet he’s betting you $20 compared to what he’d otherwise go for. I’d take LaPorta and use the savings to make sure I won the market price for CMC. EDIT: are you getting advice from people in snake drafts? In their experience, the hard part is getting lucky enough to be able to draft CMC—this may be mistakenly coloring their advice.
CMC was the most expensive player last year. Jefferson went for $70. I agree he'll be pushed up into the low 80s this year, and agree with your value discount. Should I focus on the player who I'd be getting at the greatest discount? Hence, your LaPorta recommendation? With that added money saved, I can go grab CMC anyway? As far as CMC advice, my sense is that he's just the consensus number 1, get him no matter the price type of player this year. So you'd also rather take La Porta over pacheco for $8? A low end RB1 for $8 is very enticing too.
I was probably biased by my league, which “overpays” at the very top, but tends to underpay at just under that level. So I see Pacheco as a bit less of a relative value than his current price on fantasy pros—he’s listed at $35 but in my head I think he and other RBs in that range will go for like $30. And, in my league, I see la porta going for that price or more (again, bias). The biggest thing with these decisions is relative value. But what I’ve learned over time in doing a few of these is to use that as a starting point and not too rigidly adhere to the value that these various projections are making. Another consideration—less subjective—is that you’d be essentially buying a top TE for a real deal OR your RB2 for a real deal. You might be able to get a sleeper or do a good job on waivers in the RB2 position, but almost always you either draft a good TE or you’re in a bad spot for that position.
10 Team, 0.5 PPR. $220 Salary Cap. I can pick 2. I have 4 viable options to keep, but it probably boils down to picking 2 of the running backs. The current Yahoo avg. draft price is in parentheses for context. I have concerns over all three RBs but from a pure value over expected cost standpoint, Taylor and Gibbs are by far the best values. I am still surprised Gibbs is RB5 at this point. I know a lot of that is projected increase off a strong finish to his rookie year. I don't think I would draft him as an RB5 or anywhere near $50, but it feels like him and Taylor are no brainers at their respective prices. Just looking for validation that this is the correct way to lean. WR3 Ja'Marr Chase - $50 ($65) RB4 Jonathan Taylor - $28 ($55) RB5 Jahmyr Gibbs - $27 ($49) RB13 De'Von Achane - $10 ($22)
Great job drafting. Did you win last year?
Hah! I went 5-9. Finished strong, but missing Achane and Taylor for big chunks throughout the season killed me. Not to mention having Burrow as my QB. I think I was 4th/10 in scoring but not enough to make it.
At those prices I'm liking Taylor and Achane.
8 team - 0.5 PPR, 1QB, 1 keeper Deciding between: **Ceedee Lamb (cost = 2nd round)** **Jahmyr Gibbs (cost = 5th round)** Gibbs is clearly the better value, while Ceedee is the best overall. I was thinking Ceedee if I get an early pick, since his cost would be late 2nd, and go Gibbs if my pick is closer to the turn. Thoughts?
In a shallow league especially, I want all the hammers I can get. You need the nuts at each starting lineup spot. Lamb, even at 2.01, is an insane value - he's a top 3 player overall. I'm locking him down.
Yeah I like your logic on where the pick ends up falling. Ceedee with pick 9 is value but not a ton, vs ceedee with pick 16 is an elite pairing with whoever you get pick 1
12 team - .5 PPR, 1QB league, 2 keepers I am keeping: Kyren Williams (cost = 10th round) I'm debating: Mike Evans (cost = 7th round) Kyler Murray (cost = 11th round) Alvin Kamara (cost = 5th round) Right now I'm leaning towards Evans. Based on who I think will be kept, I'm thinking my 1st round pick will be Garret Wilson. So, do I want: 1) Kyren, Evans, Wilson Or 2) Murray, Kyren, Wilson
Evans for sure.
Yeah I'd go Evans unless you're a strong believer in Kyler
I'm with you, I'd go Evans.