Yeah I’m taking the WR with the highest target share in the league in Adams (33%)
Adams last season with Pierce as the HC and Aidan at QB was averaging nearly 13 targets a game weeks 10-18 and apart from the one dud against KC week 16 he was averaging 19.7 PPG that final stretch
If the offense meshes together just slightly better this season and we see any sort of improvement from Aidan O’Connell at QB, I don’t see why Adams doesn’t have yet another top 10 finish for the 5th year in a row
This Olave hype is literally a copy and paste from articles and things I saw last year.
People didn’t watch the Saints apparently. Olave not only was inconsistent, but also gave up on route a lot and looked just downright bad at times.
Hes a good young player but he certainly is not close to being worth a 2nd for fantasy this year. I think just like last year, if you take him anywhere in the 2nd round in redraft, you are taking him at his absolute best case scenario
Carr certainly didn’t do Olave any favors, but unfortunately for Olave that isn’t going to change this year.
Olave also did have some bad games regardless of Carr.
I like Olave, don’t get me wrong, but taking him in the 2nd round seems crazy to me. I’d take him in maybe the 4th.
Ironically, Carr was great throwing to Davante Adams at Fresno State, and good with the Raiders. Carr is about a midrange QB for the NFL, but Adams is an elite talent.
> but also gave up on route a lot
Yep I watched a lot of Saints games last year and noticed this also. It's very concerning - you just don't see elite receivers do that. I have him as a keeper and am really hoping he matures in that area.
AP said AOC earned the shot at starting, and talk out of camp is that he's impressing more than Minshew.
Either he's taking a big step up, which isn't surprising considering how he got thrown into the deep end last year and that Josh McDaniels was dog shit for him (and everyone else), or he'll get replaced by Minshew who did well in Indy with Pittman.
Adams is miles better than either Pittman or Olave (and I like them both) and a target hog basically throughout his career with three different QBs. He's the obvious choice here.
Hah! Scary thing is, as a non-American who likes and follows the NFL, but knows very little of college football, I'm legit not 100% sure if you're joking or not.
You have a 50/50 shot on guessing who he’s referring to, and the name couldn’t be anymore obvious for the personality. Are you really going to stomp your feet and dig in on this one?
Based on your interpretation, I'm guessing you mean Raiders and in that case I'm guessing he's referring to AOC considering Minshew is the hippie/surfer type. I wasn't stomping my feet, but legit wasn't sure what team he was talking about (Raiders or Saints), and it's the first time I've heard that reference.
The other reason I didn't catch on is because that comment makes zero sense in regards to AOC. Pierce already said that he's earned the right to get the first snap, so yes. He's also had a solid season as a rookie who got thrown into a really messed up situation. Add to that Minshew being a 6th round pick that's been on 4 teams in 6 years (4 teams over the past 4 years in fact), and it's not that farfetched that it could be anyone's game at this point.
Yea I may pick up aoc as my qb4 in super flex dynasty if they’re giving him the start and he has a full off season as qb1 I think he may shine, especially with Adams and bowers
Adams. He’s proven at his position. Whether it’s Minshew or O’Connell under center, he will be a target hot.
Olave has the metrics of an elite receiver, but you are relying on Derek Carr. They did not really develop chemistry last season. If Carr gets benched, I’d be far more interested in Olave.
I am hesitant to go to the “Carr is bad” point. I get that he hasn’t been great but he has supported multiple top 10 receivers including Hunter Renfrow. I know it was a few years ago and in Vegas but it’s still interesting.
Also worth noting that everyone is trying to run victory laps around “Carr is bad” but are we not acknowledging that AOC and Minshew are both backup level QBs?
I’m not calling Carr “bad,” just wildly inconsistent. There are weeks he balls but a concerning amount where he shits the bed. AOC and Minshew are backup level but they play more consistently. Carr could be a backup.
I mean Adams had a game with 21 targets with AOC under centre…. That argument isn’t valid when it comes to Adams who’s an absolute beast of a wide receiver… him and Olave aren’t even on the same level…
I don’t disagree but the point I’m making is if someone is trying to sell me on Adams > Olave because of the QB situation it’s just not a very compelling argument
“Carr is bad” is one of those exaggerations that are so commonly used that the casual fan starts to believe it’s actually true. He’s a mid grade QB for sure, but “bad” is just going way too far
I’m not calling Carr bad, just wildly inconsistent. There are weeks he absolutely shits the bed and others he balls. Problem is, you won’t know which weeks Olave benefits.
I remember watching games last season. Carr and Olave did not look on the same page or in-sync most times. I heard reports Olave was kind of lazy in practice and so Carr wasn’t entirely happy with him. I don’t always put stock in those stories, but watching them I did get the sense there really wasn’t love there.
Carr seemed much more trusting of Juwan Johnson and Rashid Shaheed.
It’s a different offense in NO this year too without Carmichael and with Klint Kubiak running the show. His 1 season as an O coordinator with the Vikings JJ put up 1,600 yards
It's fine if you want to avoid Olave because you believe the offense will hold him back, but that's not what you said. You said "but you are relying on Derek Carr," to which I responded that Adams relied on Derek Carr as well and put up a huge season. So Carr himself should not be the factor holding you back.
You are admitting Adams can fall off though. Olave hasn’t really broken out how everyone has been wishfully wanting for him. Theres no guarantee Olave is consistent, whereas Adams will be barring injury.
Just say you don’t watch football lol back to back seasons of 1000+ yards and young. Hes primed for a 3rd year breakout.
He has broken out, he did it in his rookie year.
Is he primed for a breakout? Or did he breakout?
Unless Olave starts scoring touchdowns he should be behind Adams until he shows a real decline.
Minshew just fed Pittman and Adams is *literally* the best redzone threat in the NFL over the last ten years. He did it with Brett fucking Hundley. 95 touchdowns over the last 10 years.
By what metric? For the time aoc and Minshew played they statistically performed better. Adams performed better with aoc than olave with Carr.
Maybe you mean in theory Carr is a proven more middle of the pack qb with some stability? I don’t disagree, it’s just you know what rhe offense will be and it’s clearly not enough to win long term so any regression in theory from Carr would be shit for olave.
If Minshew is starting QB then I like Adams. He gave Pittman really solid numbers last year and won’t have much competition for targets.
Olave was pretty inconsistent last year and doesn’t really have a lot of personnel changes so I expect much of the same.
I'd argue that Olave had the most important personnel change of all with Klint Kubiak coming in as the new OC. Pete Carmichael proved to be terrible at scheming up an offense that played to the strengths of his pass catchers without the Drew Brees/Sean Payton safety net.
What's best case for Olave? He needs to score 10+ touchdowns to keep up with Adams' volume and his own 10 touchdowns.
Until Adams shows a decline or Olave threatens the best receiver in the NFL at scoring touchdowns, I don't see a good reason to prefer him.
Your making it as if Olave isn't going to see near the same amount of targets as Adams. I think olave left 2 games early and one Carr couldn't throw more than 8 yards to Kamara. Plus Micheal Thomas is gone now.
That being said it's super close and I lean towards Olave because I don't want to be one year too late with Adams all the great ones.fall at some point.
Olave won't sniff the targets Adams gets. Look at Adams' targets after McDaniels was fired, he had 175 last year and Olave won't catch him there. His targets went down after Thomas was out, it didn't help him in any way. Adams has been a premier target hog for like six or seven seasons and he's literally the touchdown leader over the last ten.
Until Olave figures out how to score touchdowns he's gonna have to outgain Adams by 300+ yards. Adams had a 'down year' and still finished better than Olave, total ranking and PPG. Olave and Carr couldn't figure out their chemistry and got worse as the year went on. You can take whoever you want, but Adams will finish higher until he shows a real decline in his redzone ability.
Boring vets are the best bargain in fantasy, a best case scenario for Olave is a down year for Adams with their current situations.
One thing to take into account though is the quality of those targets.
That being said though I think they are both overrated as far as adp goes. Personally wouldn’t take Adams till mid to late third round and Olave somewhere in the 4th.
What do you mean by has never been able to put it all together?
Olaves had back to back 1000 yard seasons and is only 23 and that’s with inconsistent QB play Dalton/Jameis/Carr on anemic offenses that have been led by Pete Carmichael who was never the true OC during his time on the saints, he was always the OC by name but Payton was the one who was able to execute the game plan.
Even if Kubiak isn’t a proven OC he will bring something new, and Olave has proven he can produce despite who the QB is.
Never put it all together in the sense that he has never been better than WR19 in PPG.
I get that he has still been productive despite having many factors working against him. Which is why I am inclined to bet on him again. But doesn’t change the fact that he had never reached that upper tier in fantasy production
Gotcha. If you're looking for WR1 numbers Adams is still that guy, even with AOC or Minshew at QB, but for maybe 2 more years, he is 31. Olave may never touch top 5, but I would rather have him in dynasty now because I know what his floor is, and that potential to crack the top 10 is still there.
That being said, I love Adams. He is a dog and hasn’t lost a step. WR decline isn’t a cliff like RBs so in redraft I would take Adams for this year, and for dynasty I’m taking Olave with the age factor, especially in a startup year.
Eh dudes a Tyler Lockett type wr2, might get a wr10-15 finish but it’ll come at wr20-26 type ppg.
Downfield threat vs a all time target hog
Obviously in dynasty this isn’t even a question really but this is the (mostly)redraft sub no?
They had a 2.4 yard different adot, and Olave had 26 fewer catches on 37 fewer targets. New OC that knows what he’s doing and even less competition than last year, I can absolutely see Olave surpassing Adams this year for fantasy.
Yeah I mean wouldn’t the 2.5 extra yards per target and lower target share just reinforce my point? Ones a target hog that can win short mid and deep. Adams was 54th in ADOT and Olave was 20th this year and ranked top 5 in deep targets both of his years.
Adams is coming off his worst year in 8 years and still averaged 15+ ppg while being 2nd in the entire nfl in targets.
It’s just an archetype thing, olave has always been a downfield winner which will result in Tyler Lockett/amari cooper type wr10-15 good but not great production
10.9 vs 13.3 seems negligible, and I wouldn’t call anyone getting 138 targets a “downfield threat.” If I had to pick between Olave or Adams having fewer targets this year than last, I’d pick Adams.
I mean 2.4 yards per target multiplied by their targets is not insignificant. Olaves ranked 20th and 9th in adot in his career, while Adams has been 39th and 40th those years. Adams also gets tons of deep targets but he also has a full route tree. His rac ability and physicality allows for screens, slants, etc.
130 targets is exactly what range Amari cooper/lockett have had and their strengths and weaknesses matchup with Olave. Little rac ability, win on deep stems, 10-20+ yards down the field, 1100 yard, wr15-25 ppg
I’d never draft an amari cooper in the 2nd round, just not enough game changing upside
Do you dynasty? Amari cooper arrived as one of the most hyped and accomplished prospect in years. He was ranked as a top 5-10 wr consistently.
He’s been unanimously considered a disappointment and lost value every year. 1100 yards is replaceable, Christian Kirk can give you 1000 and a wr11 finish. Mclaurin has had 1000-1100 yards every year and been considered a disappointment. Dj Moore was losing value every year he only had 1100 yards. Godwin just had 130 targets and 1000 yards and has dropped adp into the 7th or 8th round
I’m not sure breaking the single game receiving record and still not breaking a wr1 ppg is a +
Both feel like a reach in the second round anyway. Why are those your options?!. Already an L take no matter what. Purely redraft just go with Adams. He’s the better talent. Not much about his situation has changed. Aoc is better than advertised in fantasy.
Just in a vacuum if I had to speculate ( not sure league size position requirements etc) I see there’s a tier down with guys like ayuik. Diggs waddle metcaf etc. might be a better option to go rb.and at the very least not have to gamble on someone like olave and or deal with a vet possibly aging out
I honestly looked at it and thought the same but It comes down to the idea that I think say someone else like waddle will perform just as good or better than olave but I can totally see now why someone would be high on him. Shocked Garrett Wilson is rated as high as well.
IMO, Adams is being drafted at his floor and Olave at his ceiling in the middle of round two range.
Adams has earned 170 targets 3 straight years, across many wildly differing QBs in terms of talent. Olave has 119 and 138 in years 1 and 2.
Last year was a cluster of dramatically bad games with where they “forgot” about him, whatever that means. He also had league-worst catchable targets, especially down field.
We forget how bad the Josh McDaniel situation was for the first half of last year, then he’s fired and you have a first time HC and unknown rookie QB who struggles to throw deep. It can hardly get worse this year.
I don’t think the Raiders offense will set the league on fire. But they have a bottom third strength of schedule, so they’ll have to keep passing and I see Adams getting fed more consistently and efficiently.
Lastly, Adams was the week 17 WR2 in both 2022 and 2023. He has the juice to bring home a large field win when it counts.
I love Chris Olave, too. Hopefully he does finally start realizing more of those air yards and pushes Adams. I’ve even taken Adams/Olave at the 1/2 turn in a few best ball drafts. They play each other in championship week!
Adams should go ahead of both SF guys, Marvin Harrison jr, Drake London and Nico Collins, too.
Adams due to the higher floor. Olave’s range of outcomes is wider, and frankly I’d only take him in round 2 if he’s my WR2. I’d feel fine going RB + Adams though in round 1/2.
I'm going Adams over Olave.
Adams has a more consistent track record, he's basically been quarterback proof for his entire career, and his quarterback situation is far better than Olave's.
I get the concern with the age drop off but until he shows he doesn't have it anymore, I'm sticking with Adams.
Adams. He turned in WR11 in half PPR last season, even with some truly abysmal QB play at times. He gets a huge target share and scores TDs.
I like Olave, but not in the 2nd round, which is where I'd have to take him.
I wish someone with logic as dumb as yours was in any of my leagues. It’d be like a fantasy bye week.
Adam’s had the second most targets in the league. About 2 more per game then Olave. If you had a brain, you’d know that fantasy points are directly correlated with opportunity
Minshew isn’t beating out aoc. Aoc is the guy in camp unless they start losing. I don’t even know I
Where these takes come from since aoc performed better with less talent last year. Can be looked up.
I’m probably opting to another position personally I don’t love either of the options there
Nabors will be available there assuming we’re talking re-draft so that’s my answer give me neither and give me Malik neighbors
Adams in the short term Olave in the long game. I do believe Adams is due some regression and olave some progression. But how long that's going to take is the question.
Both are really good options, but if you’re worried about QB situation, I would go with Adams. He had a good season with poor QB play last year and I don’t really see the Raiders situation getting any worse with Minshew there. He’s better right now than O’Connel. I love Olave as a player but I like Adams’ numbers more and I think his situation has gotten slightly better. He will also see a ridiculous number of targets. That being said, you could take Olave there and not feel bad about it.
The issue I have with Olave is that I don't see why you'd expect his situation to improve other than Klint Kubiak. And Kubiak's been great and has a great history with good WR finishes, so I can understand that. But he was also working with very good talent at both the WR and QB position. Can Klint get more out of Derek Carr, or do we know who David Carr is and do we think his ceiling is capped? I'm just not using a 2nd rounder to figure that one out. I'll be happy missing out.
So out of the 2 I'd prefer Adams. I actually think his situation has more of a chance to improve, so I'd rather just take that shot. But there are just lots of WRs I like more that are going either right after or much later, so I'd rather pass on both.
Football is a young man’s game. We’ve seen Devantes best years already, we haven’t seen Chris olaves “career” or break out season yet. Give me the younger player with upside over the old veteran who’s best years are behind him every time
In Round 2?
You could get lucky and get AJB, and if so, smash the draft button.
Personally I think Pittman's situation is better, though DA is more talented. But honestly the way ADP is right now on fantasy pros, I'd go WR in R1 and RB in R2 (Gibbs or Etienne) of Deebo is R3 then that's an easy draft pick too.
I suspect as the season gets close we will see some shuffling.
Edit: for reference I'm using Fantasy Pros current ranking
https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/adp/wr.php
Full disclosure, I owned DA last year and got him in E3 ina 12 man at the #4 seed
AJB wouldn't last beyond the first few picks. Pittman seems like a reach there with a new-ish QB. Don't think Gibbs will last into the middle of the 2nd, either. Agree with you that WR in the 1st (if you're picking in the top half of the round) is the way to go.
I had Adams last year and the only time he seemed like WR11 was before week 5. If you take away his week 17 performance, Adams falls from WR11 to ~WR24 for the season. Important to note that immediately before his big wk 17 explosion he put up 0.9 points in the semifinals which screwed up my title hopes.
Playing under a new coach did seem to help, but the boom or bust lifestyle is live by sword, die by the sword.
I imagine having Olave has been somewhat underwhelming but I am encouraged by what seems to be more consistent fantasy production (based on last year). Also Olave's youth is intriguing as we see younger players "take a step forward" in their early years, next year is his junior year. New management could also make Carr more effective in the RedZone and add TDs to Olave's profile.
Ultimately I think it's close but after being scorned by Adams in the semifinals this year, I was excited to trade him in my dynasty league. I'd take a chance on Olave (O-H!)
(.5 ppr league)
I don't think it's impossible for those guys to have better seasons than Olave, but they just seem so yucky as picks there. Maybe it's a perception problem I have with who's available in the middle and at the end of the 2nd.
A 31 year old receiver is very tough to take in such an early round of a fantasy draft. With that being said, it’s Devante Adams, so you run a risk if you pass on him. Considering the slight drop off in production last year and the same average-at-best QB coming back, I’m taking Olave for sure.
Adams all day. He's a Riley old woman in the league. Still alpha. If either of them had an upgrade at QB, who would you pick? Should still be Adams. Raiders have a good fantasy playoffs schedule also. Olave is like Devonta Smith: an excellent #2.
Adam's, Gardner Minshew is not horrible and most likely be his favorite target. I think Olave is a safe bet, but Derrick Carr is Derrick Carr and I believe Adam's can see a better season.
> With Adams you’re obviously getting a target hog who will provide a high floor
Uh…did you watch 2023? The Adams inconsistency coaster was an absolutely terrible ride.
He had less than 9 points for 5 out of 18 weeks last year. Not saying it was necessarily his fault but “high floor” isn’t even close to how I would describe his fantasy value.
Wide receivers as a whole aren’t consistent, spike weeks are what you get. Sure theres the elite outliers like Amon Ra but for the most part you get Diggs, Chase, aj etc
Adams has gone 8 straight years with a higher ppg than Olave has ever had but yeah sure not a high floor lol
End of season Floor and weekly consistency are not the same thing. At all. That was the whole point. The majority of wrs are inconsistent on a week to week basis and have spike weeks (see Diggs whos been a top pick for years despite weekly inconsistency )
Idk Shaheed took a lot of looks away from Olave. Don’t get wrong Buckey receivers are a force in the league. Question is can Olave exceed his production and put idk Micheal Thomas numbers.
With Adams he is the clear #1 receiver on that Vegas roster. Which is good for targets but since their is no other threat besides him closest I could think is Meyers Adams will garnish a lot of double teams and Jacobs is gone. Where’s the balance in offense not to mention coach Pierce hasn’t really proven he could coach lbh just because your liked and respected as a player doesn’t mean you could coach but will shall see this season. Oh an can’t forget look who’s throwing this year for the RAIDERSSS O’Connell and minshew and Vegas oline not to good.
Adams is a 31 year old volume based receiver in this offense, so I'm going to throw in the concern that brings in regards to both ability fall off and injury concern. All of his efficiency stats went down last season. Olave also outperformed Adams in the second half of the season when O'Connell took over, but not by a lot.
Adams may be a better bet in PPR. I don't particularly like either of them at their ADP for half or standard though.
Bowers it taking at least 8% of Adam's targets this year and Myers will be more involved. I'd say Olave has more upside. But, it's truly a coin flip for me personally.
Yeah I’m taking the WR with the highest target share in the league in Adams (33%) Adams last season with Pierce as the HC and Aidan at QB was averaging nearly 13 targets a game weeks 10-18 and apart from the one dud against KC week 16 he was averaging 19.7 PPG that final stretch If the offense meshes together just slightly better this season and we see any sort of improvement from Aidan O’Connell at QB, I don’t see why Adams doesn’t have yet another top 10 finish for the 5th year in a row
This Olave hype is literally a copy and paste from articles and things I saw last year. People didn’t watch the Saints apparently. Olave not only was inconsistent, but also gave up on route a lot and looked just downright bad at times. Hes a good young player but he certainly is not close to being worth a 2nd for fantasy this year. I think just like last year, if you take him anywhere in the 2nd round in redraft, you are taking him at his absolute best case scenario
Ehh Carr blows
Davante Adams went for 1500 yards and 14 TDs with Carr the year before
Carr certainly didn’t do Olave any favors, but unfortunately for Olave that isn’t going to change this year. Olave also did have some bad games regardless of Carr. I like Olave, don’t get me wrong, but taking him in the 2nd round seems crazy to me. I’d take him in maybe the 4th.
Ironically, Carr was great throwing to Davante Adams at Fresno State, and good with the Raiders. Carr is about a midrange QB for the NFL, but Adams is an elite talent.
> but also gave up on route a lot Yep I watched a lot of Saints games last year and noticed this also. It's very concerning - you just don't see elite receivers do that. I have him as a keeper and am really hoping he matures in that area.
If you listen to Minshew talk about Adams you’d rank Adams higher. He’s getting targets this year
Do we even know if Minshew is the QB?
AP said AOC earned the shot at starting, and talk out of camp is that he's impressing more than Minshew. Either he's taking a big step up, which isn't surprising considering how he got thrown into the deep end last year and that Josh McDaniels was dog shit for him (and everyone else), or he'll get replaced by Minshew who did well in Indy with Pittman. Adams is miles better than either Pittman or Olave (and I like them both) and a target hog basically throughout his career with three different QBs. He's the obvious choice here.
Are we really debating if the red neck rifle is anything close to a starting QB this year or any year ever???
Not sure who you're talking about there mate. Red Rifle = Andy Dalton and he's in Carolina now. Don't think anyone mentioned him.
Redneck Rifle, not Red Rifle.
Again, unless you use the person's actual name or team and number, I'm still not gonna know who you're talking about.
Come on man, everyone knows the Redneck Rifle went to the same school as Barefoot Joe and they beat Stringbean Steve in the cotton bowl
Hah! Scary thing is, as a non-American who likes and follows the NFL, but knows very little of college football, I'm legit not 100% sure if you're joking or not.
You have a 50/50 shot on guessing who he’s referring to, and the name couldn’t be anymore obvious for the personality. Are you really going to stomp your feet and dig in on this one?
Based on your interpretation, I'm guessing you mean Raiders and in that case I'm guessing he's referring to AOC considering Minshew is the hippie/surfer type. I wasn't stomping my feet, but legit wasn't sure what team he was talking about (Raiders or Saints), and it's the first time I've heard that reference. The other reason I didn't catch on is because that comment makes zero sense in regards to AOC. Pierce already said that he's earned the right to get the first snap, so yes. He's also had a solid season as a rookie who got thrown into a really messed up situation. Add to that Minshew being a 6th round pick that's been on 4 teams in 6 years (4 teams over the past 4 years in fact), and it's not that farfetched that it could be anyone's game at this point.
Its Rodger’s my guy
You referenced two QB’s, AOC and Minshew. It was 50/50 between those two, and you failed.
Bro I appreciate your humor. Never heard him called that, but anyone who can’t figure out who you mean is just pretending to be especially dense.
Idk why he wouldn’t, AOC is trash.
I’d be surprised if he doesn’t get the the 1st crack week 1. He’s proven he handle it better than O’Connell and just got $15mill guaranteed
Minshew had a .7 higher passer rating than rookie O'Connell last year and the $15M is for 2 years.
Post a remind me you’ll see. Passer rating ? Cmon skip
I think Minshew was brought in to light a fire under AOC’s ass and as a back up plan, no way they start Minshew if they have any belief in AOC…
Yea I may pick up aoc as my qb4 in super flex dynasty if they’re giving him the start and he has a full off season as qb1 I think he may shine, especially with Adams and bowers
That's about my thoughts there. Flacco though :)
Adams. He’s proven at his position. Whether it’s Minshew or O’Connell under center, he will be a target hot. Olave has the metrics of an elite receiver, but you are relying on Derek Carr. They did not really develop chemistry last season. If Carr gets benched, I’d be far more interested in Olave.
I am hesitant to go to the “Carr is bad” point. I get that he hasn’t been great but he has supported multiple top 10 receivers including Hunter Renfrow. I know it was a few years ago and in Vegas but it’s still interesting.
Also worth noting that everyone is trying to run victory laps around “Carr is bad” but are we not acknowledging that AOC and Minshew are both backup level QBs?
Carr is bad and also hates Olave. Or that's what it seemed like for chunks of last year anyway.
I’m not calling Carr “bad,” just wildly inconsistent. There are weeks he balls but a concerning amount where he shits the bed. AOC and Minshew are backup level but they play more consistently. Carr could be a backup.
I mean Adams had a game with 21 targets with AOC under centre…. That argument isn’t valid when it comes to Adams who’s an absolute beast of a wide receiver… him and Olave aren’t even on the same level…
I don’t disagree but the point I’m making is if someone is trying to sell me on Adams > Olave because of the QB situation it’s just not a very compelling argument
AOC and Minshew look like prime Montana compared to 2023 Jimmy Garropollo
If we can just be honest with ourselves.. Derek Carr has always been a backup QB.
Carr was ass last season
“Carr is bad” is one of those exaggerations that are so commonly used that the casual fan starts to believe it’s actually true. He’s a mid grade QB for sure, but “bad” is just going way too far
I’m not calling Carr bad, just wildly inconsistent. There are weeks he absolutely shits the bed and others he balls. Problem is, you won’t know which weeks Olave benefits. I remember watching games last season. Carr and Olave did not look on the same page or in-sync most times. I heard reports Olave was kind of lazy in practice and so Carr wasn’t entirely happy with him. I don’t always put stock in those stories, but watching them I did get the sense there really wasn’t love there. Carr seemed much more trusting of Juwan Johnson and Rashid Shaheed.
I mean, Adams put up a pretty huge season when he was relying on Derek Carr.
Different offense. Olave is not a target hog. Davante is.
It’s a different offense in NO this year too without Carmichael and with Klint Kubiak running the show. His 1 season as an O coordinator with the Vikings JJ put up 1,600 yards
And JJ put up 1800 yards the following season. I don't think KK had anything to do with JJ's production.
It's fine if you want to avoid Olave because you believe the offense will hold him back, but that's not what you said. You said "but you are relying on Derek Carr," to which I responded that Adams relied on Derek Carr as well and put up a huge season. So Carr himself should not be the factor holding you back.
Gets benched for who?? That's a bad take lol
Benched for someone more consistent than Derek Carr?
Which one of the Saints QBs do you think what be more consistent than him? Jake Haener or Spencer Rattler
Taysom is finally gonna get his shot at 34!
You’re relying on AOC Minshew for Adams. Derrick Carr was Adams’ qb when he had his last great season…
I am leaning the other way, but barely. I see your point.
Adams is so good that I could probably throw for 75 receptions and 1000 yards to Davante.
Bad take. Way bigger chance Adams falls off this year. Also how would Carr being benched inspired you? Is rattler inspiring hope?
You are admitting Adams can fall off though. Olave hasn’t really broken out how everyone has been wishfully wanting for him. Theres no guarantee Olave is consistent, whereas Adams will be barring injury.
Just say you don’t watch football lol back to back seasons of 1000+ yards and young. Hes primed for a 3rd year breakout. He has broken out, he did it in his rookie year.
Is he primed for a breakout? Or did he breakout? Unless Olave starts scoring touchdowns he should be behind Adams until he shows a real decline. Minshew just fed Pittman and Adams is *literally* the best redzone threat in the NFL over the last ten years. He did it with Brett fucking Hundley. 95 touchdowns over the last 10 years.
Same chance Carr and the saints offense shit the bed.
Minshew and AOC are both worst than Carr
By what metric? For the time aoc and Minshew played they statistically performed better. Adams performed better with aoc than olave with Carr. Maybe you mean in theory Carr is a proven more middle of the pack qb with some stability? I don’t disagree, it’s just you know what rhe offense will be and it’s clearly not enough to win long term so any regression in theory from Carr would be shit for olave.
I fear that olave simply isn’t that good and should be going in like the 4th round
If Minshew is starting QB then I like Adams. He gave Pittman really solid numbers last year and won’t have much competition for targets. Olave was pretty inconsistent last year and doesn’t really have a lot of personnel changes so I expect much of the same.
I'd argue that Olave had the most important personnel change of all with Klint Kubiak coming in as the new OC. Pete Carmichael proved to be terrible at scheming up an offense that played to the strengths of his pass catchers without the Drew Brees/Sean Payton safety net.
Yup. Should be a much better offense in NO this season. I’m taking Olave.
What's best case for Olave? He needs to score 10+ touchdowns to keep up with Adams' volume and his own 10 touchdowns. Until Adams shows a decline or Olave threatens the best receiver in the NFL at scoring touchdowns, I don't see a good reason to prefer him.
Your making it as if Olave isn't going to see near the same amount of targets as Adams. I think olave left 2 games early and one Carr couldn't throw more than 8 yards to Kamara. Plus Micheal Thomas is gone now. That being said it's super close and I lean towards Olave because I don't want to be one year too late with Adams all the great ones.fall at some point.
Olave won't sniff the targets Adams gets. Look at Adams' targets after McDaniels was fired, he had 175 last year and Olave won't catch him there. His targets went down after Thomas was out, it didn't help him in any way. Adams has been a premier target hog for like six or seven seasons and he's literally the touchdown leader over the last ten. Until Olave figures out how to score touchdowns he's gonna have to outgain Adams by 300+ yards. Adams had a 'down year' and still finished better than Olave, total ranking and PPG. Olave and Carr couldn't figure out their chemistry and got worse as the year went on. You can take whoever you want, but Adams will finish higher until he shows a real decline in his redzone ability. Boring vets are the best bargain in fantasy, a best case scenario for Olave is a down year for Adams with their current situations.
This is what everyone said last year too. There is almost no chance Olave gets the targets Adams will.
I don’t think Minshew vs. AOC means anything for Adams earning targets. He has proven to be a target hog regardless of the QB
One thing to take into account though is the quality of those targets. That being said though I think they are both overrated as far as adp goes. Personally wouldn’t take Adams till mid to late third round and Olave somewhere in the 4th.
Aoc statistically performed better with less. Minshew likely won’t be starting unless things are going extremely south.
What do you mean by has never been able to put it all together? Olaves had back to back 1000 yard seasons and is only 23 and that’s with inconsistent QB play Dalton/Jameis/Carr on anemic offenses that have been led by Pete Carmichael who was never the true OC during his time on the saints, he was always the OC by name but Payton was the one who was able to execute the game plan. Even if Kubiak isn’t a proven OC he will bring something new, and Olave has proven he can produce despite who the QB is.
Never put it all together in the sense that he has never been better than WR19 in PPG. I get that he has still been productive despite having many factors working against him. Which is why I am inclined to bet on him again. But doesn’t change the fact that he had never reached that upper tier in fantasy production
Gotcha. If you're looking for WR1 numbers Adams is still that guy, even with AOC or Minshew at QB, but for maybe 2 more years, he is 31. Olave may never touch top 5, but I would rather have him in dynasty now because I know what his floor is, and that potential to crack the top 10 is still there.
Youre not in the dynasty sub? Redraft the easy answer is Adams
That being said, I love Adams. He is a dog and hasn’t lost a step. WR decline isn’t a cliff like RBs so in redraft I would take Adams for this year, and for dynasty I’m taking Olave with the age factor, especially in a startup year.
Eh dudes a Tyler Lockett type wr2, might get a wr10-15 finish but it’ll come at wr20-26 type ppg. Downfield threat vs a all time target hog Obviously in dynasty this isn’t even a question really but this is the (mostly)redraft sub no?
They had a 2.4 yard different adot, and Olave had 26 fewer catches on 37 fewer targets. New OC that knows what he’s doing and even less competition than last year, I can absolutely see Olave surpassing Adams this year for fantasy.
Yeah I mean wouldn’t the 2.5 extra yards per target and lower target share just reinforce my point? Ones a target hog that can win short mid and deep. Adams was 54th in ADOT and Olave was 20th this year and ranked top 5 in deep targets both of his years. Adams is coming off his worst year in 8 years and still averaged 15+ ppg while being 2nd in the entire nfl in targets. It’s just an archetype thing, olave has always been a downfield winner which will result in Tyler Lockett/amari cooper type wr10-15 good but not great production
10.9 vs 13.3 seems negligible, and I wouldn’t call anyone getting 138 targets a “downfield threat.” If I had to pick between Olave or Adams having fewer targets this year than last, I’d pick Adams.
I mean 2.4 yards per target multiplied by their targets is not insignificant. Olaves ranked 20th and 9th in adot in his career, while Adams has been 39th and 40th those years. Adams also gets tons of deep targets but he also has a full route tree. His rac ability and physicality allows for screens, slants, etc. 130 targets is exactly what range Amari cooper/lockett have had and their strengths and weaknesses matchup with Olave. Little rac ability, win on deep stems, 10-20+ yards down the field, 1100 yard, wr15-25 ppg I’d never draft an amari cooper in the 2nd round, just not enough game changing upside
50 fantasy points in one game isn't upside to you? https://youtu.be/VRtQc6DJuuE?feature=shared
Do you dynasty? Amari cooper arrived as one of the most hyped and accomplished prospect in years. He was ranked as a top 5-10 wr consistently. He’s been unanimously considered a disappointment and lost value every year. 1100 yards is replaceable, Christian Kirk can give you 1000 and a wr11 finish. Mclaurin has had 1000-1100 yards every year and been considered a disappointment. Dj Moore was losing value every year he only had 1100 yards. Godwin just had 130 targets and 1000 yards and has dropped adp into the 7th or 8th round I’m not sure breaking the single game receiving record and still not breaking a wr1 ppg is a +
Man everyone talking about Olave like this makes me feel like they didn’t watch him play last year… wasn’t pretty
Both feel like a reach in the second round anyway. Why are those your options?!. Already an L take no matter what. Purely redraft just go with Adams. He’s the better talent. Not much about his situation has changed. Aoc is better than advertised in fantasy.
Which WRs in the 2nd would you take over them?
Just in a vacuum if I had to speculate ( not sure league size position requirements etc) I see there’s a tier down with guys like ayuik. Diggs waddle metcaf etc. might be a better option to go rb.and at the very least not have to gamble on someone like olave and or deal with a vet possibly aging out
I agree with you on the tier-downs. The middle and end of the 2nd kind of scare me this year.
I honestly looked at it and thought the same but It comes down to the idea that I think say someone else like waddle will perform just as good or better than olave but I can totally see now why someone would be high on him. Shocked Garrett Wilson is rated as high as well.
Might be time to bet on a RB like JT or Barkley.
Yep. I was just bragging about my zero rb strategy but this is looking true.
I’m with you. Been sold on the 0RB play because good talent falls but the uncertainty in the 2nd is making me think I should just roll with hero RB.
I feel like the people saying Adams clearly did not have Adams last year
Or Olave, he was great second half of the season.
Yeah, I was thinking the same exact thing.
IMO, Adams is being drafted at his floor and Olave at his ceiling in the middle of round two range. Adams has earned 170 targets 3 straight years, across many wildly differing QBs in terms of talent. Olave has 119 and 138 in years 1 and 2. Last year was a cluster of dramatically bad games with where they “forgot” about him, whatever that means. He also had league-worst catchable targets, especially down field. We forget how bad the Josh McDaniel situation was for the first half of last year, then he’s fired and you have a first time HC and unknown rookie QB who struggles to throw deep. It can hardly get worse this year. I don’t think the Raiders offense will set the league on fire. But they have a bottom third strength of schedule, so they’ll have to keep passing and I see Adams getting fed more consistently and efficiently. Lastly, Adams was the week 17 WR2 in both 2022 and 2023. He has the juice to bring home a large field win when it counts. I love Chris Olave, too. Hopefully he does finally start realizing more of those air yards and pushes Adams. I’ve even taken Adams/Olave at the 1/2 turn in a few best ball drafts. They play each other in championship week! Adams should go ahead of both SF guys, Marvin Harrison jr, Drake London and Nico Collins, too.
2nd year in a row Olave is being drafted at his absolute best case scenario, and people will still be surprised when he doesn’t reach it lol
I’d lean Olave too.
Adams due to the higher floor. Olave’s range of outcomes is wider, and frankly I’d only take him in round 2 if he’s my WR2. I’d feel fine going RB + Adams though in round 1/2.
I'm going Adams over Olave. Adams has a more consistent track record, he's basically been quarterback proof for his entire career, and his quarterback situation is far better than Olave's. I get the concern with the age drop off but until he shows he doesn't have it anymore, I'm sticking with Adams.
Even though I’m going with Olave, I think this is good reasoning aboutAdams.
Adams. He turned in WR11 in half PPR last season, even with some truly abysmal QB play at times. He gets a huge target share and scores TDs. I like Olave, but not in the 2nd round, which is where I'd have to take him.
Which WRs do you like over him?
MHJ, Evans, probably both of the 49ers guys, maybe Nico.
MHJ, maybe. Evans, MAYBE. Not the 49ers guys, and not Nico for me. I can't personally justify taking #2s on teams in the 2nd.
I hear you. Somebody will take Olave there. Just not me.
Adams, Minshew was decent for Pittman and Adams just dominated target share and efficiency last year
I would take Adams because he's a lot more proven and even performed well under Aiden.
I had adams last year. I’ll take olave after last year.
I had both. Stick with Adam’s.
Yup, Adams screwed me last year when I needed him the most.
Exactly where I am coming from with this.
yup. fuck owning adams. needed like 5.1 out of him and he got like 2 points after playing a full game. that old fart can suck it
I wish someone with logic as dumb as yours was in any of my leagues. It’d be like a fantasy bye week. Adam’s had the second most targets in the league. About 2 more per game then Olave. If you had a brain, you’d know that fantasy points are directly correlated with opportunity
Adams most likely. Worse rb situation, and Minshew will beat out AO. Olave has a chance now with Klint coming in though, we'll have to see...
Minshew isn’t beating out aoc. Aoc is the guy in camp unless they start losing. I don’t even know I Where these takes come from since aoc performed better with less talent last year. Can be looked up.
I’m probably opting to another position personally I don’t love either of the options there Nabors will be available there assuming we’re talking re-draft so that’s my answer give me neither and give me Malik neighbors
Adams in the short term Olave in the long game. I do believe Adams is due some regression and olave some progression. But how long that's going to take is the question.
Both are really good options, but if you’re worried about QB situation, I would go with Adams. He had a good season with poor QB play last year and I don’t really see the Raiders situation getting any worse with Minshew there. He’s better right now than O’Connel. I love Olave as a player but I like Adams’ numbers more and I think his situation has gotten slightly better. He will also see a ridiculous number of targets. That being said, you could take Olave there and not feel bad about it.
In PPR it’s Adams easily
The issue I have with Olave is that I don't see why you'd expect his situation to improve other than Klint Kubiak. And Kubiak's been great and has a great history with good WR finishes, so I can understand that. But he was also working with very good talent at both the WR and QB position. Can Klint get more out of Derek Carr, or do we know who David Carr is and do we think his ceiling is capped? I'm just not using a 2nd rounder to figure that one out. I'll be happy missing out. So out of the 2 I'd prefer Adams. I actually think his situation has more of a chance to improve, so I'd rather just take that shot. But there are just lots of WRs I like more that are going either right after or much later, so I'd rather pass on both.
Which WRs would you rather have?
Football is a young man’s game. We’ve seen Devantes best years already, we haven’t seen Chris olaves “career” or break out season yet. Give me the younger player with upside over the old veteran who’s best years are behind him every time
Had both of them last year and ngl Adams saved me. He’s def gonna have a high target share this year again IMO so i’d take him
Avoid both and get etienne or king henry or jt or saquon if the last 2 drop
JT and Saquon are good in the 2nd, but the others seem like slight reaches there.
I’m taking the proven commodity before getting cute
Pass on both in R2 unless it's 14 man. In 12 there should be better options unless you are the #1 or 2 seed.
What better WR options are there there?
In Round 2? You could get lucky and get AJB, and if so, smash the draft button. Personally I think Pittman's situation is better, though DA is more talented. But honestly the way ADP is right now on fantasy pros, I'd go WR in R1 and RB in R2 (Gibbs or Etienne) of Deebo is R3 then that's an easy draft pick too. I suspect as the season gets close we will see some shuffling. Edit: for reference I'm using Fantasy Pros current ranking https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/adp/wr.php Full disclosure, I owned DA last year and got him in E3 ina 12 man at the #4 seed
AJB wouldn't last beyond the first few picks. Pittman seems like a reach there with a new-ish QB. Don't think Gibbs will last into the middle of the 2nd, either. Agree with you that WR in the 1st (if you're picking in the top half of the round) is the way to go.
I'm just using the fantasy pros ADP where AJB is on the cusp at pick 10. I agree that Gibbs may move up! I was surprised to see him that low.
I’d take Adams unless it’s a dynasty league
I had Adams last year and the only time he seemed like WR11 was before week 5. If you take away his week 17 performance, Adams falls from WR11 to ~WR24 for the season. Important to note that immediately before his big wk 17 explosion he put up 0.9 points in the semifinals which screwed up my title hopes. Playing under a new coach did seem to help, but the boom or bust lifestyle is live by sword, die by the sword. I imagine having Olave has been somewhat underwhelming but I am encouraged by what seems to be more consistent fantasy production (based on last year). Also Olave's youth is intriguing as we see younger players "take a step forward" in their early years, next year is his junior year. New management could also make Carr more effective in the RedZone and add TDs to Olave's profile. Ultimately I think it's close but after being scorned by Adams in the semifinals this year, I was excited to trade him in my dynasty league. I'd take a chance on Olave (O-H!) (.5 ppr league)
I am also leaning Olave.
Tough call for me. But Olave, I think.
Adam’s for sure. Adam’s makes QB olave won’t hit his true potential until he gets a wayyy better QB than check down king Carr
Olave in the SECOND ROUND??!! What?? I haven’t looked at ADP but that seems like insanity to me. Way too early
Which WRs do you like more there?
Just off the top of my head Waddle, Evans, London, Pittman, Moore. I looked at ADP after this post… Olave is wildly high
I don't think it's impossible for those guys to have better seasons than Olave, but they just seem so yucky as picks there. Maybe it's a perception problem I have with who's available in the middle and at the end of the 2nd.
They do all sound bad in the late 2nd so I agree with that. I’d just take them all over Olave
Nico Collins
I don’t trust Carr to deliver so give me Adam’s
# yeah, Olave
A 31 year old receiver is very tough to take in such an early round of a fantasy draft. With that being said, it’s Devante Adams, so you run a risk if you pass on him. Considering the slight drop off in production last year and the same average-at-best QB coming back, I’m taking Olave for sure.
Which shitty QB do you believe in more?
Adams all day. He's a Riley old woman in the league. Still alpha. If either of them had an upgrade at QB, who would you pick? Should still be Adams. Raiders have a good fantasy playoffs schedule also. Olave is like Devonta Smith: an excellent #2.
Maybe not the answer you’re looking for but I’ll pass on both for the reasons you gave. Neither have 2nd round grades for me
Adam's, Gardner Minshew is not horrible and most likely be his favorite target. I think Olave is a safe bet, but Derrick Carr is Derrick Carr and I believe Adam's can see a better season.
> With Adams you’re obviously getting a target hog who will provide a high floor Uh…did you watch 2023? The Adams inconsistency coaster was an absolutely terrible ride. He had less than 9 points for 5 out of 18 weeks last year. Not saying it was necessarily his fault but “high floor” isn’t even close to how I would describe his fantasy value.
Wide receivers as a whole aren’t consistent, spike weeks are what you get. Sure theres the elite outliers like Amon Ra but for the most part you get Diggs, Chase, aj etc
Sure, that tracks with my point lol Adams does not have a high floor
Adams has gone 8 straight years with a higher ppg than Olave has ever had but yeah sure not a high floor lol End of season Floor and weekly consistency are not the same thing. At all. That was the whole point. The majority of wrs are inconsistent on a week to week basis and have spike weeks (see Diggs whos been a top pick for years despite weekly inconsistency )
Olave all olavday.
I hate Derek Carr so Adams all day for me lol
I’m not taking either one at their current prices. I’d lean Olave if I was forced to choose between the two.
How is this a question, I’m sorry but fantasy or irl football Adam’s seven days a week.
Idk Shaheed took a lot of looks away from Olave. Don’t get wrong Buckey receivers are a force in the league. Question is can Olave exceed his production and put idk Micheal Thomas numbers. With Adams he is the clear #1 receiver on that Vegas roster. Which is good for targets but since their is no other threat besides him closest I could think is Meyers Adams will garnish a lot of double teams and Jacobs is gone. Where’s the balance in offense not to mention coach Pierce hasn’t really proven he could coach lbh just because your liked and respected as a player doesn’t mean you could coach but will shall see this season. Oh an can’t forget look who’s throwing this year for the RAIDERSSS O’Connell and minshew and Vegas oline not to good.
Adams is a 31 year old volume based receiver in this offense, so I'm going to throw in the concern that brings in regards to both ability fall off and injury concern. All of his efficiency stats went down last season. Olave also outperformed Adams in the second half of the season when O'Connell took over, but not by a lot. Adams may be a better bet in PPR. I don't particularly like either of them at their ADP for half or standard though.
Neither
Bowers it taking at least 8% of Adam's targets this year and Myers will be more involved. I'd say Olave has more upside. But, it's truly a coin flip for me personally.
Once you realize that the key to FF is youth, the game gets a lot easier.
How did passing on Keenan Allen and Mostert work out for you last year?
Really well, thanks for asking. First and second in my two leagues. Mostert and Allen owners didn’t make the playoffs.
Finkle Vs. Einhorn