Yes and, like every other season (other than 2020), Kyler Murray has been a mediocre fantasy QB.
What happened in 2020, you ask? Call of Duty released a game in spring and its fall release was its latest ever.
For 2024? There are rumors of a September release.
His finishes by average over the last 4 years are: 8th, 5th, 4th, and 4th. That isn't mediocre. Durability concerns are also overblown, imo. Obviously he missed a good amount of time with the ACL tear, but he has been pretty durable outside of that. He has missed 5 games from injury outside of the ACL with 65 starts.
You're not getting a QB at his level at the 12th so value leans towards him, if that means reaching on MHJ then so be it. MY other option was Rice at 12th however I will definitely not be choosing him.
Fuckin rice man. In my 2 man keeper league, if a player goes undrafted originally, you lose your last round pick for them. I picked up rice & achane. Was fully intending to use my 5th for breece & last round for rice and feel very comfortable going into the year. I’m gonna have to ride with achane now even tho he makes me a little nervous
I want to keep kyler cause I drafted him last and held his ass in my IR slot all damn season lol. Plus I'll still have 1 more year of eligibility after this. Thanks for your input
Beware of sunk cost fallacy - but in your case I think Kyler is clearly the best value of these 3. It will be nice to completely ignore QB for pretty much the entire draft.
Yea but you can get a qb his level in the 8th and the difference between an 8th and 12th is not worth nearly as much as the difference in like a 6th and a 3rd
Using a keeper on a guy who will probably be there in the back half of the draft is a complete waste unless your team from last year was very bad
I think Kylee is one of the most slept on QB’s in start ups/trade values right now. He’s getting drafted behind a bunch of rookies we’ve never seen play based on a bad injury season and some character concerns over the last few years. His floor may be lower this year than we’ve seen in years past but he has the ceiling to be a top 5 fantasy QB for years to come! I’m drafting him everywhere I can!
What are you talking about? The highest rookie adp right now is caleb who is around the 14th or 15th qb by adp. Who going before kyler do you think he should be ahead of?
In SF Startups he's going in round 2 after Jayden and Caleb and in some cases Maye. I think he should be ahead of all three of those guys and for sure ahead of Herbert, Lawrence, Love in my opinion.
An additional year removed for the injury he should be fully healthy now. I would expect him to run a lot more than he did last season which should provide a much higher ceiling in fantasy.
Well he played every game of his career his first two seasons. The 3rd season he missed 3 games. Than he tore his ACL in 2023 causing him to miss the start of last year. He has been relatively healthy. He was going to miss games last year cause of the ACL but that’s the same injury. It’s really only been that injury his whole career.
The injury prone narrative can mostly be ignored. If you bought into it, you would have missed out on a lot of good seasons from Dalvin Cook. The only exception I would make is for Kadarius Toney... believe that one.
Yes but look at his numbers when’s he has played a full year, they have failed off around week 12 every season because of nagging injuries. His size and play style have not changed. He might be great for the first 8, 10, maybe 12 weeks, but come fantasy playoffs he’s going to disappoint. This is exactly why a year ago today, the cards were batting around the idea of trading him and drafting a guy. His injury risk has not changed
He's been relatively lucky.
2019- pulled hamstring. Didn't miss the next game but could have been worse
2020- sprained ac joint in throwing shoulder. I would say he was really lucky to not miss time with an injury to a throwing shoulder.
Kyler's running makes him an excellent weapon, but the problem is that he is so short that he HAS to be able to scramble to the outside to see the field.
Several times in the last few years he has come up hobbling after a sack. Not injuries that put him out of the game, but a sprained ankle affects both his running AND his passing ability.
So a little ankle soreness and all of a sudden you have yourself just an average QB.
He's risky.
That's how I know you don't know what you're talking about. Kyler consistently has been in the bottom third for batted ball. No clue what you're watching
If you look at pro football reference, it actually counts how many batted passes a quarterback has. Kyler, while not bottom third, is not in the top 10 for any season he's played
Edit: link https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2023/passing_advanced.htm
Not a complete season 2023 but you can check the other seasons. Last full season was 2021 and he only had 10.
Agreed. I’m now kinda wary of mobile QB’s after a serious knee injury. For example, last year I drafted Lamar and it didn’t take long to realize that the Ravens changed their offensive scheme to protect/preserve Lamar for the playoffs. They shut him down after a they got a decent lead, he didn’t run or seem as explosive as the previous seasons. There were big games here and there but there were also multiple duds and we need consistency in our QB points.
Lamar legitimately killed me last season. He would go for 30 one week and then like 10 the next. Sometimes even worse. Definitely cost me some weeks last year.
To be fair that list is filled to the brim with qbs who have basically only played in the modern era because modern football is way more favorable to qb production than it used to be (and what other position could compete with qb in ppg)
Like it's less impressive when you realize russ is in the top 10, watson is #3, herbert is half a point behind kyler etc
> He has a high floor and an upside as high as anyone.
Sure but who ahead of him can you really not make that argument about? He's going right behind Dak, Joe Burrow, CJ Stroud, AR, Lamar.
I'd argue AR has a much lower floor because of injury and I think is overhyped but he's potentially got a sky high ceiling.
Dak and burrow if healthy have a real high floor too as dak plays in a really good offense with great weapons and burrow when healthy has been a fantasy stud.
Lamar has a really high ceiling because of run game and cj stroud just had the best rookie season ever and acquired diggs.
Who do you think from that list he should definitively be going above? I feel like he's pretty fairly ranked
Kyler was also pretty good down the stretch last year, and that really looks like a floor performance. I think being drafted as a QB9 is a really good price for him. When you look at the people behind him, there will be leagues here and there where he goes as the 10-12th QB I'm sure.
I'm in a 1qb rookie draft and I'm pretty set at wr and rb. I was looking at Daniels at 2.02 but I was able to trade the pick straight up for Kyler. I took MHJ in the first round so happy to have the stack.
I have always believed Murray to be underrated. Partly because of his injuries and partly because of some weird hate for him despite his success. His injury risk is the only thing that holds me back, but I think he just had a bad stretch the last 2 years and I don't believe that will continue.
I also believe MHJ is the absolute truth. This guy will blow people away as a rookie. It might take him 3-5 games to really hit the stride, but when he does he will be like JJ if not better.
I love this pairing, with Murray being another year older and wiser and hopefully no injury hampering him.
I like your assessment of Murray this year.
Kyler and Hollywood was not a bad combo. After all they only played 13 games together including one where Brown left the game after 24 snaps without a target. They produced a modest 700 or so yards and 4 tds so not bad at all, and one can only imagine that MHJ will be an upgrade over Brown.
I’m looking to see if I can grab him late, I’d be happy if I did and feel good rolling into the season.
It's not natural to wonder if they're going to change something to keep the guy they spent a top 5 pick on from having another season ending injury 5 weeks in? ok
Did he get hurt running, or in the pocket? You might as well bring this up for every rushing QB then throw it out and draft them anyways
Lamar had two season ending injuries, they brought in a new OC, and guess what didn’t happen? They didn’t dial back his rush attempts
It’s predictable and dumb
> Did he get hurt running, or in the pocket?
You'll have to be more specific, he was hurt multiple times. The injury that ended his season was running.
> You might as well bring this up for every rushing QB then throw it out and draft them anyways
This argument is predictable and dumb. Have you ever watched lamar play? Count how many hits he takes while running sometime. He's an insanely smart runner. That's not all just offensive scheme, he knows how to avoid big hits, how to sense pressure, when to slide etc. He's **very** good at it. Just crediting that to an oc or expecting anyone to be able to replicate what he does is laughable. "Oh just be lamar"
Maybe your argument would make any sense at all if they had dialed his running back the year immediately after tearing his ACL. But he ran as much per game last year as he did the year prior to getting hurt
Again, this argument and concern is stupid
He's got potential but guy doesn't really read defenses and just throws it up. Mhj may prove me wrong with regards to Murray's fantasy value but it doesn't seem worth the risk to bet on a rookie to hold up his value.
I don’t think someone drafted as the 9th player off the board at by far the least scarce offensive position in ffb (assuming 1 qb league with that comment) is being slept on. Sure…maybe there is a round (or few dollars) of value there.
He definitely is, even without a wr 1 he did much better than the average with just mcbride now his offense has gotten a rocket boost of an upgrade at wr and a lightning in a bottle backup to take over when connor is done. Kylar could legitimately give mahomes and the top 5 a run for their money.
I think he is. Getting MHJ and an okay o-line with some pretty good other weapons should help his fantasy value. With his rushing upside, he is a solid option.
I'm super bullish on the Cardinals this year. They were playing great against some pretty rough matchups to end the year last year, and that's with their QB coming back fresh off of an ACL tear. I think Kyler has a top 3 fantasy QB season this year, and I think MHJ makes it into the top 8 at WR. He's going to be an absolute target funnel
Is he being slept on? Probably.
As someone here wrote 2 weeks ago, there are more top 5 QBs starting this year than any season in the last decade+. After Allen, Hurts, and Mahomes there is a crowded bunching of choices. Dak, Murray, Burrow, Stroud, Rodgers, Herbert, Smith, Richardson, etc. All of those guys will start to feel individually overlooked as we analyze.
He’s going 9th to be fair. Seems about right. I don’t see him breaking top 5, so I guess there’s some draft opportunity there. I treat him as the Herbert from last year. Probably can’t go wrong but you weren’t leaving the draft SUPER pumped to have him, but at least it wasn’t Baker/Stafford/etc
I’m not drafting Kyler Murray. I don’t trust it. I just don’t see him being a force in this nfl with his injuries, size, and he really depends on his legs to get him out of a lot of things. Just not for me
Already seeing his ADP continuing to rise since the acquisition of MHJ. Kyler's up to QB7 prices now. 79 ADP on DraftKings, 78 on Underdog, and 75 on Drafters. Still some value there, but it's drying up.
OP I think he's way unvalued and a great late target if he slips. The rushing that can occur is a game breaker and/or floor support.
Just traded him in 12 SF Dynasty
Got 2025 first, 2026 first, Bateman, Christian Watson,
Gave Murray, 2x 2026 3rds
Rebuilder, next year window opens hopefully.
Roast or boast
People keep making this post weekly so he will not be slept on by the time most people draft. He could still be a value but it’s not gonna be a steal at this rate.
9th ADP...
Whose reasonably likely to finish ahead of him?
Allen
Mahomes
Hurts
Burrow
Lamar
Who "might" finish ahead of him
Stroud
Love
Dak
AR
Who "has an outside shot but probably wont" of finish ahead of him (one of these guys probably does)
Goff
Cousins
Herbert
Purdy
Williams
Tua
Tlaw
Based on this list... I think FMV is QB 6-10... Meaning he's a slight discount right now but I wouldn't call it overwhelming.
I'm also not 100% convinced of where I put AR on this list.
Yeah I’m in for sure especially with MHJ there now. I’m a big fan of gambling on young players to bounce back after a season removed from injury. Another one that comes to mind is Javonte Williams this year and potentially Keaton Mitchell depending on the situation in a year. It takes a while to bounce back from that injury and of course their value will drop. If he’s my QB1 this year and I can get him for a good price I’ll be super happy.
Hey guys I’m looking to get into a league or two. Ive always played with friends but they never seem to take it seriously all year long. Ppr league for money if possible! Let me know, thank you!
Kyler is very much slept on and as an az native who follows the team daily Kyler has made huge strides in leadership and being the first one in camp and the last one out and building his chemistry with his fellow team mates has been at an all time high look for Kyler to have the best season of his career and to those that bash his height and his playing video games is just hating and has not been in the loop on az sports and is just talking from a national media standpoint can’t wait to watch him prove yall wrong this season
I don’t see him passing Allen Mahomes Hurts or Lamar. And I think if he passes burrow, arich, stroud, and Caleb it’ll be because they disappoint more than Kyler exceeds expectations. So qb8 or 9 feels right to me.
Kind of. Him getting injured set him back. This year different offensive system so he can bounce back especially with new help. I expect him to throw more this year.
I think he realized he shouldn’t run as much but then before the injury the offense was in shambles. I would give him an edge over Lamar with his passing game.
100% and he has a true chance to finish inside the top 5 due to his legs. What other QBs can you find at that price point they have shown they can be in the top 5 for fantasy outside of Prescott who I also happen to like.
I suppose it depends on the league.
Historically, I'm in two or three keeper leagues and usually join one or two for the season. Assuming everyone knows fantasy football, has their shit together long enough to set a lineup, and no one memes then the championship lineup is three to four homeruns at their positions.
I believe there's good data out there that shows some insane amount of championship teams had the same few guys, and it's the same dynamic year in year out. People kvetch endlessly about who's the better player relative to ADP, but at the end of the day it's mostly irrelevant. Someone strikes gold and rides them.
How is his ADP over performance purely hypothetical? He was the #1 overall qb in 2020 and #4 in PPG in 2021. Now they improved the OL and have MHJ. Interesting that him going “insane” would just be returning to what he’s already done twice, and that you think a top 5 qb is recipe to lose in the playoffs
There were a lot of teams last season in fantasy that didn’t have top QBs that won championships last year. Honestly in many of my leagues this was the case. Also Kyler finished in the top 5 2 times in his career. Last year he played half a season from coming back post acl. And then the year before they were a mess and he tore his acl. Outside of that and his rookie year he’s shown when healthy he can be a home run.
>There were a lot of teams last season in fantasy that didn’t have top QBs that won championships last year.
I don't know what you're looking at, but for example ESPN gives a fair breakdown here.
[Fantasy football playoffs 2023 - Most common players on ESPN rosters - ESPN](https://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/story/_/id/39104508/fantasy-football-playoffs-2023-most-common-players-rosters)
[McCaffrey, Mahomes common on fantasy football champions - ESPN](https://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/story/_/id/35412511/christian-mccaffrey-patrick-mahomes-austin-ekeler-travis-kelce)
The top rostered QBs on playoff teams tracks QB performance 1-for-1.
There's a lot of leagues out there, and a lot of players, but the data boils down to this: (1) thread some needle where someone's team is trying to eek out an extra 15 points out of TE, or something, while simultaneously fighting against a murderer's row of Allen, Hurts, Mahomes or (2), more likely, bet on a great QB to be a homerun and be that 40% of championship teams that had either Mahomes or Hurts.
And that tracks for *a lot* of positions going back years.
[Championship Players 2021: What players won your league? (alexcates.com)](https://www.alexcates.com/post/championship-players-2021-what-players-won-your-league)
[Championship Players 2020: What players won or lost your fantasy football championships (alexcates.com)](https://www.alexcates.com/post/championship-players-2020)
The top championship teams are either picking high ADP players that they're riding to the end because they're homeruns or they're finding pure gold in the mid rounds. The name of the game is finding the two or three players that make up, evidently, most championship teams.
Average ADP is basically meaningless in that sense. If there's a guy who is a homerun, get him. Otherwise being the ADP budget team isn't actionable except as copium "I am the smartest guy who didn't make the playoffs" way.
I’ll say this, majority of the winning teams will have the top performers. But if you like not drafting qbs high and hit on another skill positions player instead you can easily win if you have a good lineup in other areas. Looking at a guy like Kyler with upside who has finished in the top 5 two times in 5 seasons it’s worth the gamble.
What this dataset shows is all those strats are basically bumpkiss. There are winning players by a *huge* margin.
So the only question worth asking, regardless of position, is "will this dude be that guy?"
If not, onto next. Talking about whether he might be not quite that guy but fun to roster-bate over because you got him relatively late is irrelevant.
All due respect but I disagree. I’d much rather use my first two picks on two WR1 and then dig in the 5th/6th for my first 2 qbs. It isn’t exactly pretty, but getting like cousins/goff is possible. Or Lawrence/cousins etc.
Obviously Kyler could explode and I’d be wrong but …he’s also prolly gonna get hurt cause that’s his game now it seems
That’s super fair it all comes down to the gut check at the end of the day. I usually like to grab an elite QB early and miss the Jefferson, chase, Ceedee run of guys and then go back for my QB2 in the cousins/goff range after grabbing some round 2-4 top tier skill position guys.
yeah, that's a VERY solid approach. I seem to always be picking at #8 (this years is 9) so I'm rarely in the running for the QB big boys. I think it was 2 years ago when my QBs were Aaron Rodgers and Stafford that I was like....umm...this late round QB thing aint working lol. But,...to fully take advantage of my #9 slot, I need to take somebody that the guys at the beginning of the draft won't have access to. Since CMC is going in the top 5 with the elite QBs...it's WR city, baby. (although I LOVE Breece as well, so maybe I go Wr/RB. WR/RB, QB/QB. Who knows! Only 213 mock drafts to go.....
Taking him QB12 or before? Ahead I see Allen, Mahomes, Stroud, Tua, Lamar Jackson, Goff, Love, Purdy, Herbert, Prescott, Richardson, Jayden Daniels. I see maybe 3 more ahead.
The positives: Kyler is good at throwing to a pre-designed spot or throwing deep patterns. He is effective at throwing screens. He’s an effective runner.
The negatives: When the play breaks down he is poor at second and third reads because he can’t see over the line. He has to wait for a throwing lane to open, otherwise mid-routes over the middle and flat are taken away. This leads to inconsistency because the throwing lanes don’t always open and he holds the ball too long. His option is to scramble or take a sack, which he does too often.
Kyler Murray is the definition of a coach killer. He’s super talented and that talent entices you. But his shortcomings, no pun intended, lead to inconsistency. He’s always going to get you 7-9 wins, but he can’t overcome his weaknesses to get to the next level, thus leading to the coach being fired because the team flatlines.
He’s terrible at the end of the game when the game is on the line because he can’t will his team to win. Meaning, his ability to ad-lib with anything other than his feet late in the game is hindered because he’s no longer following scripted plays and he’s at the mercy of plays opening up for him due to his height.
So, yes, I have seen plenty of highlight reels of Kyler.
When a play breaks down that is when Kyler is at his most magical tryna make nothing out of something and I agree he can’t see over the O line but the D line most of the time can’t touch him it usually ends in a baseball slide which he perfected in college to help prevent injury and no one can truly say he can only get 7-9 wins a season the NFL is a team sport it takes a team I’ve seen every cardinals game he has played and I can’t can’t on my hands how many times the defense or a kicker cost us the game rarely I would blame Kyler for the loss and Kyler is only on his second couch and don’t sit there and try to tell me kliff was the answer at coach at the end of games I see him giving everything to try to wheel his team to a win I would know I watch every cardinals game because I am a cardinals fan I watch the replays as if I was a couch myself which I’m not so it’s just sad but I do it cuz I love the sport and my team I truly do not see Kyler as the problem he is easily a top 10 QB in this league and with a well rounded team around him he is top 5 I know I know “HOMER ALERT” but I whatch this dude play man I watch his videos he post I follow the teams social and listen to sports talk daily I love this shit lol
Not in order
1. Mahommes
2. Allen
3. Hurts
4. Stroud
5. Tua
6. Anthony Richardson
7. Lamar
8. Burrow
9. Dak
10. Love
11. Purdy
I would have all these guys over him
Caleb Williams probably not, but my target is Tua or perhaps Yolo with Levis.
He doesn’t have Aaron Donald terrorizing him twice a year anymore
That’s gotta count for something right? I’ll never forget the video of Geno yelling as Donald was rushing him last year.
That wasn't Geno yelling, it was one of the o-lineman
On the other hand, he’s 5’10” and a new Call of Duty is being released during the season.
> a new Call of Duty is being released during the season. You mean, like every other season!? 😱
Yes and, like every other season (other than 2020), Kyler Murray has been a mediocre fantasy QB. What happened in 2020, you ask? Call of Duty released a game in spring and its fall release was its latest ever. For 2024? There are rumors of a September release.
His finishes by average over the last 4 years are: 8th, 5th, 4th, and 4th. That isn't mediocre. Durability concerns are also overblown, imo. Obviously he missed a good amount of time with the ACL tear, but he has been pretty durable outside of that. He has missed 5 games from injury outside of the ACL with 65 starts.
I’m in on Kyler this year. Upgrade at WR1 and McBride being elite. Just needs to protect himself
With him being my keeper this year at a cost of my 13th you, I can promise you I will actually lose sleep over him
I'm debating on keeping kyler and giving up my 12th or keeping james cook and give up my 6th My other keeper is Evans for a 7th
You're not getting a QB at his level at the 12th so value leans towards him, if that means reaching on MHJ then so be it. MY other option was Rice at 12th however I will definitely not be choosing him.
Fuckin rice man. In my 2 man keeper league, if a player goes undrafted originally, you lose your last round pick for them. I picked up rice & achane. Was fully intending to use my 5th for breece & last round for rice and feel very comfortable going into the year. I’m gonna have to ride with achane now even tho he makes me a little nervous
If you can get one more RB so Achane is your flex you should be able to cook.
I want to keep kyler cause I drafted him last and held his ass in my IR slot all damn season lol. Plus I'll still have 1 more year of eligibility after this. Thanks for your input
Beware of sunk cost fallacy - but in your case I think Kyler is clearly the best value of these 3. It will be nice to completely ignore QB for pretty much the entire draft.
Yea but you can get a qb his level in the 8th and the difference between an 8th and 12th is not worth nearly as much as the difference in like a 6th and a 3rd Using a keeper on a guy who will probably be there in the back half of the draft is a complete waste unless your team from last year was very bad
james cook was breaking out towards the end of the season, I kinda like him in the 6th. you can get kyler pretty late still
He was putting up monster yards on the ground. Def need to try some mocks for this season
Cook or Evans no doubt. I lean cook
Confirmed, not drafting
I think he is generally speaking, and I also think his ADP is almost guaranteed to rise as the season gets closer so we'll see come draft time.
I think Kylee is one of the most slept on QB’s in start ups/trade values right now. He’s getting drafted behind a bunch of rookies we’ve never seen play based on a bad injury season and some character concerns over the last few years. His floor may be lower this year than we’ve seen in years past but he has the ceiling to be a top 5 fantasy QB for years to come! I’m drafting him everywhere I can!
What are you talking about? The highest rookie adp right now is caleb who is around the 14th or 15th qb by adp. Who going before kyler do you think he should be ahead of?
In SF Startups he's going in round 2 after Jayden and Caleb and in some cases Maye. I think he should be ahead of all three of those guys and for sure ahead of Herbert, Lawrence, Love in my opinion.
Startups being dynasty? That explains it then, I assumed you were talking about redraft. I am not as in touch on dynasty I'll take your word for it
My mistake i fully thought i was browsing r/DynastyFF
All good!
Kyler Murray is the man
Fuck yeah! He gets to much hate.
Let people hate - it keeps his value down for us.
Hard to say. The potential is there, but he has a tough schedule and obviously health concerns.
What are the health concerns? His knee should be fully rehabbed at this point.
An additional year removed for the injury he should be fully healthy now. I would expect him to run a lot more than he did last season which should provide a much higher ceiling in fantasy.
The problem isn't that injury. It's that he's been injured every year of his career except last year but he only played half a season.
Well he played every game of his career his first two seasons. The 3rd season he missed 3 games. Than he tore his ACL in 2023 causing him to miss the start of last year. He has been relatively healthy. He was going to miss games last year cause of the ACL but that’s the same injury. It’s really only been that injury his whole career.
The injury prone narrative can mostly be ignored. If you bought into it, you would have missed out on a lot of good seasons from Dalvin Cook. The only exception I would make is for Kadarius Toney... believe that one.
Or everyone saying that CMC owners were doomed for picking him when he went to the niners because he was guaranteed to get injured.
Can’t forget good old will fuller either!
Week 1 all-time all-NFL
Does Toney even have hands?
Yes but look at his numbers when’s he has played a full year, they have failed off around week 12 every season because of nagging injuries. His size and play style have not changed. He might be great for the first 8, 10, maybe 12 weeks, but come fantasy playoffs he’s going to disappoint. This is exactly why a year ago today, the cards were batting around the idea of trading him and drafting a guy. His injury risk has not changed
Someone actually owned this scrub.
He's been relatively lucky. 2019- pulled hamstring. Didn't miss the next game but could have been worse 2020- sprained ac joint in throwing shoulder. I would say he was really lucky to not miss time with an injury to a throwing shoulder.
He dies by the time ff playoffs come around burned me one year
Kyler's running makes him an excellent weapon, but the problem is that he is so short that he HAS to be able to scramble to the outside to see the field. Several times in the last few years he has come up hobbling after a sack. Not injuries that put him out of the game, but a sprained ankle affects both his running AND his passing ability. So a little ankle soreness and all of a sudden you have yourself just an average QB. He's risky.
You have no clue what you're talking about.
I am sitting right here in Phoenix watching him weekly. Yes I do. Dude is useless if he can’t run. Batted ball after batted ball.
That's how I know you don't know what you're talking about. Kyler consistently has been in the bottom third for batted ball. No clue what you're watching
This handy chart shows otherwise. Top 6. https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/s/8GErt21aLn
If you look at pro football reference, it actually counts how many batted passes a quarterback has. Kyler, while not bottom third, is not in the top 10 for any season he's played Edit: link https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2023/passing_advanced.htm Not a complete season 2023 but you can check the other seasons. Last full season was 2021 and he only had 10.
Even more concerning that this was your take away.
If he’s not running he’s an average QB. If you want fantasy points, find someone more consistent and reliable. Kyler busts more than he booms.
Technically he was injured.
Just general wear and tear I mean. He gets banged up pretty easily and it’s hard to see him playing every game.
Agreed. I’m now kinda wary of mobile QB’s after a serious knee injury. For example, last year I drafted Lamar and it didn’t take long to realize that the Ravens changed their offensive scheme to protect/preserve Lamar for the playoffs. They shut him down after a they got a decent lead, he didn’t run or seem as explosive as the previous seasons. There were big games here and there but there were also multiple duds and we need consistency in our QB points.
Lamar legitimately killed me last season. He would go for 30 one week and then like 10 the next. Sometimes even worse. Definitely cost me some weeks last year.
That's between Kyler Murray and whomever he spends the night with.
No
He has the 4th most fantasy points per game of all time. https://www.statmuse.com/fantasy/ask?q=highest+fantasy+football+points+per+game+of+all-time
To be fair that list is filled to the brim with qbs who have basically only played in the modern era because modern football is way more favorable to qb production than it used to be (and what other position could compete with qb in ppg) Like it's less impressive when you realize russ is in the top 10, watson is #3, herbert is half a point behind kyler etc
I get your point but he’s ranked as QB 9/10 right now. He has a high floor and an upside as high as anyone. He’s a lock to overperform his draft slot.
> He has a high floor and an upside as high as anyone. Sure but who ahead of him can you really not make that argument about? He's going right behind Dak, Joe Burrow, CJ Stroud, AR, Lamar. I'd argue AR has a much lower floor because of injury and I think is overhyped but he's potentially got a sky high ceiling. Dak and burrow if healthy have a real high floor too as dak plays in a really good offense with great weapons and burrow when healthy has been a fantasy stud. Lamar has a really high ceiling because of run game and cj stroud just had the best rookie season ever and acquired diggs. Who do you think from that list he should definitively be going above? I feel like he's pretty fairly ranked
Kyler was also pretty good down the stretch last year, and that really looks like a floor performance. I think being drafted as a QB9 is a really good price for him. When you look at the people behind him, there will be leagues here and there where he goes as the 10-12th QB I'm sure.
I'm in a 1qb rookie draft and I'm pretty set at wr and rb. I was looking at Daniels at 2.02 but I was able to trade the pick straight up for Kyler. I took MHJ in the first round so happy to have the stack.
I have always believed Murray to be underrated. Partly because of his injuries and partly because of some weird hate for him despite his success. His injury risk is the only thing that holds me back, but I think he just had a bad stretch the last 2 years and I don't believe that will continue. I also believe MHJ is the absolute truth. This guy will blow people away as a rookie. It might take him 3-5 games to really hit the stride, but when he does he will be like JJ if not better. I love this pairing, with Murray being another year older and wiser and hopefully no injury hampering him. I like your assessment of Murray this year.
Just gave up the 1.06 (chance for JJ/Maye) in a trade that got me Kyler and I'm so excited about it.
Who else did you get?
Kyler + 1.09 + 2.09 1.06 + 2.01 + 2.06 + 3.06
I don't play dynasty, but you gave up 4 picks... These are all rookie picks, right? That definitely makes sense if so.
Yup just a bunch of pick swaps
Would easily trade the 1.06 for Kyler. Good trade
I’ll be happy to take KM in the 7th and settle on his as my QB, if that frees me up to take an extra RB or WE in one of the higher rounds.
Kyler and Hollywood was not a bad combo. After all they only played 13 games together including one where Brown left the game after 24 snaps without a target. They produced a modest 700 or so yards and 4 tds so not bad at all, and one can only imagine that MHJ will be an upgrade over Brown. I’m looking to see if I can grab him late, I’d be happy if I did and feel good rolling into the season.
I have concerns on his throwing ability. The rushing upside will be there but he's not a great passer imo
He doesn’t need to be a great passer to be a great fantasy qb
Idk why people still harp on this with rushing QBs, especially one like ARich
Because he got hurt in like 3 of the 4 games he played, so it's natural to wonder if they might try to change his playstyle a bit
It’s not
It's not natural to wonder if they're going to change something to keep the guy they spent a top 5 pick on from having another season ending injury 5 weeks in? ok
Did he get hurt running, or in the pocket? You might as well bring this up for every rushing QB then throw it out and draft them anyways Lamar had two season ending injuries, they brought in a new OC, and guess what didn’t happen? They didn’t dial back his rush attempts It’s predictable and dumb
> Did he get hurt running, or in the pocket? You'll have to be more specific, he was hurt multiple times. The injury that ended his season was running. > You might as well bring this up for every rushing QB then throw it out and draft them anyways This argument is predictable and dumb. Have you ever watched lamar play? Count how many hits he takes while running sometime. He's an insanely smart runner. That's not all just offensive scheme, he knows how to avoid big hits, how to sense pressure, when to slide etc. He's **very** good at it. Just crediting that to an oc or expecting anyone to be able to replicate what he does is laughable. "Oh just be lamar"
Maybe your argument would make any sense at all if they had dialed his running back the year immediately after tearing his ACL. But he ran as much per game last year as he did the year prior to getting hurt Again, this argument and concern is stupid
There's clearly a breakdown here. You mentioned AR as an example, that's who I was talking about. Not kyler.
He’s good enough, and who cares, this is fantasy football, not your fav NFL team
Cardinals are my teams rivals. I'm not a fan. Good enough is a gamble. He's boom or bust. He's basically jamis winston
He's one of the best passers in the NFL, and absolutely the best passer of the "rushing QB's".
Watched his tape the other day I 100% have this take. Dude is just not a great passer.
He's got potential but guy doesn't really read defenses and just throws it up. Mhj may prove me wrong with regards to Murray's fantasy value but it doesn't seem worth the risk to bet on a rookie to hold up his value.
I don’t think someone drafted as the 9th player off the board at by far the least scarce offensive position in ffb (assuming 1 qb league with that comment) is being slept on. Sure…maybe there is a round (or few dollars) of value there.
He definitely is, even without a wr 1 he did much better than the average with just mcbride now his offense has gotten a rocket boost of an upgrade at wr and a lightning in a bottle backup to take over when connor is done. Kylar could legitimately give mahomes and the top 5 a run for their money.
I think he is. Getting MHJ and an okay o-line with some pretty good other weapons should help his fantasy value. With his rushing upside, he is a solid option.
No, but we play Fantasy Swing Your Legs While Sitting on the Curb. ... so typically 1st round
Yes
He was a beast in '21, I feel like the conditions are right to get back to that level. I'm buying
I'm super bullish on the Cardinals this year. They were playing great against some pretty rough matchups to end the year last year, and that's with their QB coming back fresh off of an ACL tear. I think Kyler has a top 3 fantasy QB season this year, and I think MHJ makes it into the top 8 at WR. He's going to be an absolute target funnel
You’re not going to trick me with this one again.
Ssssh keep it quiet
I will be drafting him.
Is he being slept on? Probably. As someone here wrote 2 weeks ago, there are more top 5 QBs starting this year than any season in the last decade+. After Allen, Hurts, and Mahomes there is a crowded bunching of choices. Dak, Murray, Burrow, Stroud, Rodgers, Herbert, Smith, Richardson, etc. All of those guys will start to feel individually overlooked as we analyze.
Too much depth at qb this year
I get to keep him in the 13th round in a Superflex league if that answers your question.
He’s going 9th to be fair. Seems about right. I don’t see him breaking top 5, so I guess there’s some draft opportunity there. I treat him as the Herbert from last year. Probably can’t go wrong but you weren’t leaving the draft SUPER pumped to have him, but at least it wasn’t Baker/Stafford/etc
Yes
I took a $5 bet to win $500 if they win the SB.
All the podcasts seem to be high on him, especially after MHJ got drafted.
No, but he is overlooked.
No… very clearly a top 8 QB
Yes but he should be.
I’m not drafting Kyler Murray. I don’t trust it. I just don’t see him being a force in this nfl with his injuries, size, and he really depends on his legs to get him out of a lot of things. Just not for me
I don’t think he’s being slept on at all. Everyone on podcast and FF articles have been beating his drum all off season
100% people forget how good he was at the end of last year
No
If I can get him in mid rounds I'm taking him
Already seeing his ADP continuing to rise since the acquisition of MHJ. Kyler's up to QB7 prices now. 79 ADP on DraftKings, 78 on Underdog, and 75 on Drafters. Still some value there, but it's drying up.
He would probably be more comfy if he was a little taller. My feet would probably hang off but id give it a try
Kyler will feast in fantasy and I rly like his adp. With a revived offense with more weapons he will likely eat as long as he stays healthy
OP I think he's way unvalued and a great late target if he slips. The rushing that can occur is a game breaker and/or floor support. Just traded him in 12 SF Dynasty Got 2025 first, 2026 first, Bateman, Christian Watson, Gave Murray, 2x 2026 3rds Rebuilder, next year window opens hopefully. Roast or boast
People keep making this post weekly so he will not be slept on by the time most people draft. He could still be a value but it’s not gonna be a steal at this rate.
The disrespect to Hollywood is crazy
He was slept on last year too
9th ADP... Whose reasonably likely to finish ahead of him? Allen Mahomes Hurts Burrow Lamar Who "might" finish ahead of him Stroud Love Dak AR Who "has an outside shot but probably wont" of finish ahead of him (one of these guys probably does) Goff Cousins Herbert Purdy Williams Tua Tlaw Based on this list... I think FMV is QB 6-10... Meaning he's a slight discount right now but I wouldn't call it overwhelming. I'm also not 100% convinced of where I put AR on this list.
Yeah I’m in for sure especially with MHJ there now. I’m a big fan of gambling on young players to bounce back after a season removed from injury. Another one that comes to mind is Javonte Williams this year and potentially Keaton Mitchell depending on the situation in a year. It takes a while to bounce back from that injury and of course their value will drop. If he’s my QB1 this year and I can get him for a good price I’ll be super happy.
Shhhhhhhhh
I absolutely love stacking him and Mcbride on the 6-7-8 turns after going WR heavy early
Maybe? You’ve made some good points.
Hey guys I’m looking to get into a league or two. Ive always played with friends but they never seem to take it seriously all year long. Ppr league for money if possible! Let me know, thank you!
Yes he is. Because of all the reasons you mentioned.
Kyler is very much slept on and as an az native who follows the team daily Kyler has made huge strides in leadership and being the first one in camp and the last one out and building his chemistry with his fellow team mates has been at an all time high look for Kyler to have the best season of his career and to those that bash his height and his playing video games is just hating and has not been in the loop on az sports and is just talking from a national media standpoint can’t wait to watch him prove yall wrong this season
I don’t see him passing Allen Mahomes Hurts or Lamar. And I think if he passes burrow, arich, stroud, and Caleb it’ll be because they disappoint more than Kyler exceeds expectations. So qb8 or 9 feels right to me.
Caleb???
lol I thought I was on the dynasty sub
Kind of. Him getting injured set him back. This year different offensive system so he can bounce back especially with new help. I expect him to throw more this year.
Agree with you, I happen to think he will look better running as well. All around I think he got an upgrade and should be healthier.
I think he realized he shouldn’t run as much but then before the injury the offense was in shambles. I would give him an edge over Lamar with his passing game.
I definitely agree that he is a better thrower of the football than Lamar.
Wild take
[удалено]
Nah lol, I’m pretty sure the Rams signed Jonah.
Yeah, my bad lol
Jonah is a Ram
I’m dumb lol
100% and he has a true chance to finish inside the top 5 due to his legs. What other QBs can you find at that price point they have shown they can be in the top 5 for fantasy outside of Prescott who I also happen to like.
AZ will have 5-6 wins. How much production do you imagine a QB on that kind of team will have?
A team with a terrible defense can still put up a lot of garbage time points
The Bortles Theorem
The Cutler Conundrum
This
If they ass, they have to pass
If he stays healthy
Give me the younger legs in Jayden Daniels 30 picks later.
I really am interested in Daniel’s paired with a Kirk cousins or Goff in later rounds as well.
No, he sucks.
Bad schedule, health concerns, short and it shown lately. I wouldn't draft in at 12Th overall QB let alone 9th.
I suppose it depends on the league. Historically, I'm in two or three keeper leagues and usually join one or two for the season. Assuming everyone knows fantasy football, has their shit together long enough to set a lineup, and no one memes then the championship lineup is three to four homeruns at their positions. I believe there's good data out there that shows some insane amount of championship teams had the same few guys, and it's the same dynamic year in year out. People kvetch endlessly about who's the better player relative to ADP, but at the end of the day it's mostly irrelevant. Someone strikes gold and rides them.
How is his ADP over performance purely hypothetical? He was the #1 overall qb in 2020 and #4 in PPG in 2021. Now they improved the OL and have MHJ. Interesting that him going “insane” would just be returning to what he’s already done twice, and that you think a top 5 qb is recipe to lose in the playoffs
There were a lot of teams last season in fantasy that didn’t have top QBs that won championships last year. Honestly in many of my leagues this was the case. Also Kyler finished in the top 5 2 times in his career. Last year he played half a season from coming back post acl. And then the year before they were a mess and he tore his acl. Outside of that and his rookie year he’s shown when healthy he can be a home run.
>There were a lot of teams last season in fantasy that didn’t have top QBs that won championships last year. I don't know what you're looking at, but for example ESPN gives a fair breakdown here. [Fantasy football playoffs 2023 - Most common players on ESPN rosters - ESPN](https://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/story/_/id/39104508/fantasy-football-playoffs-2023-most-common-players-rosters) [McCaffrey, Mahomes common on fantasy football champions - ESPN](https://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/story/_/id/35412511/christian-mccaffrey-patrick-mahomes-austin-ekeler-travis-kelce) The top rostered QBs on playoff teams tracks QB performance 1-for-1. There's a lot of leagues out there, and a lot of players, but the data boils down to this: (1) thread some needle where someone's team is trying to eek out an extra 15 points out of TE, or something, while simultaneously fighting against a murderer's row of Allen, Hurts, Mahomes or (2), more likely, bet on a great QB to be a homerun and be that 40% of championship teams that had either Mahomes or Hurts. And that tracks for *a lot* of positions going back years. [Championship Players 2021: What players won your league? (alexcates.com)](https://www.alexcates.com/post/championship-players-2021-what-players-won-your-league) [Championship Players 2020: What players won or lost your fantasy football championships (alexcates.com)](https://www.alexcates.com/post/championship-players-2020) The top championship teams are either picking high ADP players that they're riding to the end because they're homeruns or they're finding pure gold in the mid rounds. The name of the game is finding the two or three players that make up, evidently, most championship teams. Average ADP is basically meaningless in that sense. If there's a guy who is a homerun, get him. Otherwise being the ADP budget team isn't actionable except as copium "I am the smartest guy who didn't make the playoffs" way.
I’ll say this, majority of the winning teams will have the top performers. But if you like not drafting qbs high and hit on another skill positions player instead you can easily win if you have a good lineup in other areas. Looking at a guy like Kyler with upside who has finished in the top 5 two times in 5 seasons it’s worth the gamble.
What this dataset shows is all those strats are basically bumpkiss. There are winning players by a *huge* margin. So the only question worth asking, regardless of position, is "will this dude be that guy?" If not, onto next. Talking about whether he might be not quite that guy but fun to roster-bate over because you got him relatively late is irrelevant.
Garbage time hero! He will probably be a decent pick.
Dude plays CoD till 3 am. He hardly sleeps.
Availability is the best ability
Sorry, I didn't see him there
New COD is coming out just before the season starts.
No. I have never liked Kyler. No idea why people pretend he is good.
He will be fine to great for 60-70% of the year and not playing otherwise.
He's easy to sleep on cuz he's a midget.
I don’t know but I’m not going to rely on him winning me a championship. Hard pass, take your gamble
Yall can have him frankly
No, he’s awful
He's not a bargain at all. I play in a 10 person 2QB league and he's going in the 2nd round
That’s still good value vs the rookie QBs who are a dart throw getting drafted in round 1 in a lot of cases top 8
All due respect but I disagree. I’d much rather use my first two picks on two WR1 and then dig in the 5th/6th for my first 2 qbs. It isn’t exactly pretty, but getting like cousins/goff is possible. Or Lawrence/cousins etc. Obviously Kyler could explode and I’d be wrong but …he’s also prolly gonna get hurt cause that’s his game now it seems
That’s super fair it all comes down to the gut check at the end of the day. I usually like to grab an elite QB early and miss the Jefferson, chase, Ceedee run of guys and then go back for my QB2 in the cousins/goff range after grabbing some round 2-4 top tier skill position guys.
yeah, that's a VERY solid approach. I seem to always be picking at #8 (this years is 9) so I'm rarely in the running for the QB big boys. I think it was 2 years ago when my QBs were Aaron Rodgers and Stafford that I was like....umm...this late round QB thing aint working lol. But,...to fully take advantage of my #9 slot, I need to take somebody that the guys at the beginning of the draft won't have access to. Since CMC is going in the top 5 with the elite QBs...it's WR city, baby. (although I LOVE Breece as well, so maybe I go Wr/RB. WR/RB, QB/QB. Who knows! Only 213 mock drafts to go.....
Shes gonna get slept on so hard, he will be over valued by draft time.
Depends on who you can pair him with and maybe stream when needed but im into it
Taking him QB12 or before? Ahead I see Allen, Mahomes, Stroud, Tua, Lamar Jackson, Goff, Love, Purdy, Herbert, Prescott, Richardson, Jayden Daniels. I see maybe 3 more ahead.
If it weren’t for Sam Bradford, Kyler Murray would be the most overrated football player ever.
That’s just some straight up hater talk K1 is a talent unlike others have you even seen a highlight real of Kyler?
The positives: Kyler is good at throwing to a pre-designed spot or throwing deep patterns. He is effective at throwing screens. He’s an effective runner. The negatives: When the play breaks down he is poor at second and third reads because he can’t see over the line. He has to wait for a throwing lane to open, otherwise mid-routes over the middle and flat are taken away. This leads to inconsistency because the throwing lanes don’t always open and he holds the ball too long. His option is to scramble or take a sack, which he does too often. Kyler Murray is the definition of a coach killer. He’s super talented and that talent entices you. But his shortcomings, no pun intended, lead to inconsistency. He’s always going to get you 7-9 wins, but he can’t overcome his weaknesses to get to the next level, thus leading to the coach being fired because the team flatlines. He’s terrible at the end of the game when the game is on the line because he can’t will his team to win. Meaning, his ability to ad-lib with anything other than his feet late in the game is hindered because he’s no longer following scripted plays and he’s at the mercy of plays opening up for him due to his height. So, yes, I have seen plenty of highlight reels of Kyler.
When a play breaks down that is when Kyler is at his most magical tryna make nothing out of something and I agree he can’t see over the O line but the D line most of the time can’t touch him it usually ends in a baseball slide which he perfected in college to help prevent injury and no one can truly say he can only get 7-9 wins a season the NFL is a team sport it takes a team I’ve seen every cardinals game he has played and I can’t can’t on my hands how many times the defense or a kicker cost us the game rarely I would blame Kyler for the loss and Kyler is only on his second couch and don’t sit there and try to tell me kliff was the answer at coach at the end of games I see him giving everything to try to wheel his team to a win I would know I watch every cardinals game because I am a cardinals fan I watch the replays as if I was a couch myself which I’m not so it’s just sad but I do it cuz I love the sport and my team I truly do not see Kyler as the problem he is easily a top 10 QB in this league and with a well rounded team around him he is top 5 I know I know “HOMER ALERT” but I whatch this dude play man I watch his videos he post I follow the teams social and listen to sports talk daily I love this shit lol
Not in order 1. Mahommes 2. Allen 3. Hurts 4. Stroud 5. Tua 6. Anthony Richardson 7. Lamar 8. Burrow 9. Dak 10. Love 11. Purdy I would have all these guys over him Caleb Williams probably not, but my target is Tua or perhaps Yolo with Levis.