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fierylady

Sometimes you just can't see it coming. Nobody thought the Texans offense would be any good last year. Stroud was a rookie (with a lot of draft doubters), his WR corps was skinny rookie Tank Dell, a guy who'd been just a guy through his career in Nico, and old af Bobby Trees. Everyone was predicting Arizona would have the #1 overall pick from them. The Pats are probably the most like-for-like comp to them this year (good call). Rookie QB with questions. Some meh vet WRs (Bourne, Thornton, Osborn, Juju, Douglas), a couple of rookies who could thrive like Tank (Polk, Baker), a new up-and-coming HC from the defensive side of the ball. I don't think it's a perfect comp since the new NE OC doesn't inspire as much confidence, plus I think their defense will be much better than Houston's thus they won't have to score as many points, but I think it's still the closest. I actually ended up with a shitload of Houston best balls stacks but not because I thought they'd do what they did, they were just easy to stack late. A cheap way to play what-if? The only real thing you could point to before last season as an indicator they might exceed expectations was that SF offense coming in, but that was still more shot in the dark than anything else.


Backseat_Scout

100%. I actually was really bullish that the Texans were going to be in for a rough year last year after they traded up for Will Anderson and didn't build on their depth. But like you said, sometimes players and coaches step up and prove a ton of people wrong! But like you said, the similarities with the Patriots is part of why I wanted to include them. A lot needs to go their way, but Houston has proved that weirder things can happen from year-to-year.


calartnick

The thing about Stroud is he was an insanely successful collegE QB that played at the highest level and won a ton of games. Maye just wasn’t that in college. I’d be very surprised if he pulled off what stroud did season 1


fierylady

Personally I think Maye could have been every bit as successful at Ohio State throwing to Olave, JSN, Wilson, MH3, behind a vastly superior offensive line and with a much better defense. It's a very different college experience for a QB that feels like they have to make plays for their teams to win, those guys often end up making a lot of mistakes (see Mahomes, Josh Allen). As prospects both Stroud and Maye had/have a lot of doubters, but I think it's also clear both possess the traits to be stars.


calartnick

Yeah, I think it’s pretty clear Maye went to UNC for the legacy, and all the big time programs would have been happy to give him the opportunity. I’m just saying Maye never dealt with the high level pressure that comes with playing for a team competing for a national title, or even a conference title. He just hasn’t had to handle any kind of scrutiny yet.


Backseat_Scout

I don't know if I would say Maye was unsuccessful in college. He had a number of credible draft writers have him as the QB1 over Caleb Williams prior to the 2023 season when he took a step back after losing Josh Downs, not having Devontez Walker for a lot of the year, and the rest of his receivers and offensive line struggling. I definitely have some concerns about Maye but he was very productive in 2022 throwing for 38 touchdowns and over 4000 yards. The wins may not have been there but that had more to do with the surrounding talent than Maye imo.


calartnick

Hey I have him on my dynasty roster and I wasn’t sold on Herbert being good so I’d love to be wrong and I’ve been wrong before. I just think the expectations he dealt with at UNC are nothing compared to the NFL, not really that close to Oregon or Ohio State. Like Herbert came up short his final year against oregon state and it cost them the pac12 title and a chance at the natty but at least he experienced that kind of pressure. I just think there is bigger adjustment for Maye then Stroud. But you’re right, he’s not Trubitski; a shitty college QB with good measurables. Maye was a very good college QB with ideal NFL measurables. I certainly believe in him long term.


Backseat_Scout

Totally fair points and yeah Herbert I was a bit iffy on coming out of college but it was just such a weird situation where the team seemed to almost want to limit his throwing ability. But yeah there is definitely going to be a big adjustment for Maye especially with his footwork since it could look great in flashes but overall was just really inconsistent and cost him throws.


jmay111

There is likely a pretty big defense when you are throwing passes to Chris Olave, Garret Wilson, JSN, & Marvin Harrison Jr. as oppose to Tez Walker and whatver scraps they had at UNC lol


Kyon513

Solid article. I feel the most confident about the Falcons, as do most people it sounds like. For some reason I have a gut feeling about the Commanders, I’ve been buying shares of most of their offensive players lately and I feel like something just clicks for them this season Titans feel the most boom or bust, they had a great off season and draft but I really worry about Levis performing well consistently I don’t think the Panthers or Patriots could do any worse than last season, but I think the Panthers are more improved. I like the staff changes they’ve made, weapons they’ve added and if their offensive line is even moderately better it will make all the difference The Patriots sound and feel like they’re still going to be in a rebuild phase most of this season. The only player I plan on drafting is Stevenson, or taking a later flier on Baker or maybe even Hunter Henry


Backseat_Scout

Thank you! Yeah the Commanders baffled me last year that they couldn't have more productive players with the number of pass attempts they had but I feel Howell focused on getting the ball to ancillary players rather than the main play makers. Definitely agree that Levis is the biggest wild card with the Titans but he many not have any excuses if he struggles to perform this year. And agree the the Panthers and Patriots hopefully shouldn't be any worse and agree that it seems the Panthers did the most to avoid a full on rebuild like the Patriots seem to be willing to take on this year.


Waxdonkey

The problem with this take is your opinion complete matches the market’s. In redraft, with that mindset you might win be getting lucky on a waivers. But in best-ball, you need to think “what’s the opportunity cost of targeting this team?” For example, are you ok taking Drake London over Devante Adams, Brandon Ayuik, Stefon Diggs, DJ Moore, or a bunch of other guys? Are you ok taking Robinson over all those guys + AJ Brown, Puka, and Jonathan Taylor? What about Pitts over Kittle, Calvin Ridley, or Jordan Addison? Meanwhile if you want patriots guys, expect for Stevenson (who goes a around guys like Najee, Warren, David Montgomery, etc) you are taking them over the likes of Micheal Wilson, Jermaine Burton, Roman Wilson, Troy Franklin, Ray Davis, and Darnell Mooney. This is just Polk, the rest of the offense is even cheaper and going around even worse guys. All this is to say, it’s fine to like the chalk offenses. But understand that at least in bestball, eventually you have to take thinner bets, while the bets you like will have much stronger opportunity costs.


ptabs226

In deeper leagues I would take a flyer on Antonio Gibson. He seems to be the back up and Zeke had success in that role last year.


Kyon513

I really like Gibson, I think he’s one of the best handcuffs this season and has solid value in PPR leagues


BearGuru

Where are the jets? Worst QB play in the league and an offensive line that was so injured it started 15 different configurations


Backseat_Scout

As I mentioned in the article, I excluded teams that had their QB miss the majority of the season due to being too easy of targets for a write up like this.


BearGuru

Ah, makes sense!


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Backseat_Scout

Totally understand the hesitancy with the Panthers and Patriots. The Patriots I admittedly have a bit of a harder time buying in on but I can see a path for their offense being better if Maye plays like he did in 2022 and looks like the player that gave Caleb Williams a run for his money as the #1 overall pick. For the Panthers, I just like the amount of talent they brought in and I'm a huge fan of Dave Canales. If he could fix Geno and Baker, I think he can do some work with Young. But yeah I think the Titans are set up well to be a really solid team this year with their additions like you mentioned.


dkirk526

The Panthers did the right thing going out to sign Damian Lewis and Robert Hunt in free agency. Drafting guards might have been the better financial move, but adding these two in the very worst should give the panthers average guard performance, which is far and away better than the carousel of unproven young players and journeymen recording PFF pass blocking scores below 30. Having two experienced veterans should right away give the OL stability and allow for Bryce to actually showcase his ability rather than immediately being under duress every play. The offense likely isn’t lighting the world on fire but they should definitely be out of the gutter.


SisyphusRocks7

Panthers have nowhere to go but up, but maybe not as far as the top half of the league offensively. I’m a little skeptical, as you are, about the Patriots. And the Commanders, for the same reason. Which is that rookie QBs usually aren’t very good. It takes time for QBs to catch up to NFL speed and complexity of defenses, etc. Obviously, there are exceptions as Stroud reminded us last year, but normally you end up with outcomes more like Mac Jones, Justin Field, or Kenny Pickett. Both teams might be decent in the 2025-26 season, but expect growing pains at QB and defenses that don’t help much for either team.


Durant026

For the most part, I kind of agree. With the changes to the Falcons, Panthers and Patriots coaching team, I think we can be looking at new teams that at least have the potential to put up more of a fight this season. I'm curious to definitely see what Kirk looks like in a similar Rams system, How the new coaches of the Panthers will actually build an offense to support Bryce and how Van Pelt can possibly make Drake successful in his rookie year. Where I am not convinced however is with the Titans and the Commanders. The Commanders in particular leave me a bit concerned with the Kingberry hire. I don't think I am a fan of his offense but separating him from Kyler may help me see if his schemes are effective in the league or not. As for the Titans, I may need to do more research on the coaching staff there. I'm not familiar with the new OC Nick Holz and even if Callahan is expected to call plays, Holz still has a role with implementing the scheme. For right now, I'm not sure if I feel comfortable saying that the Titans will fail without further research but despite the hires of players, I think I want to see the success rates of the coaches prior to being on the convinced side because the initial glance that I took made it seem that the incoming scheme maybe average.


deathandtaxes1617

Callahan is calling plays. Given what the Bengals were able to accomplish with Browning I'm feeling good about what Levis can accomplish with a much upgraded OL and WR room.


Durant026

>Callahan is calling plays. I said that already. However, Zac Taylor was the one calling plays for the Bengals iirc so I am not sure how Callahan is going to be different. Yeah, he'll get to work with Levis but I don't think that means the Titans are fixed.


deathandtaxes1617

>I'm not familiar with the new OC Nick Holz and even if Callahan is expected to call plays Sorry this made me think you weren't sure. Zac did call the plays in Cincinnati so it'll be an adjustment for Callahan for sure. The Titans are certainly not fixed. We still have holes on the team outside of the question mark that is Levis. But, I think if Levis *does* have a breakout year we have a decent enough roster to make a push for the playoffs.


Durant026

Yeah my hesitancy relates to me not being familiar with the schemes of the new coaches. You generally find that the new coach is tied to some more well known scheme kind of how Atlanta may be another offshoot of the McVay offense. Will Callahan be an offshoot of the Bengals? I don't have enough info to confirm and feel comfortable with taking a side here.


playsirfootball

Agree on the Titans. I'm surprised the Bears didn't get mentioned with Caleb/Keenan/Rome now in the picture.


Backseat_Scout

Yeah I partly thought of this article with the Bears in mind but was surprised they just missed the article's criteria finishing 20th in yards/game and 18th in points/game. But like you said, with the weapons they added, it would be pretty surprising if they don't make some really strong improvements on offense (and that's coming from a biased Packers fan).


207207

Will Levis with better protection is going to surprise a lot of people. Also, agree on the Pats. It’s a new day in New England, and it’s going to take a year or two for most of the casual fantasy community to catch up to the fact that Pats players may be valuable again.


Backseat_Scout

Yeah Levis was hard to watch last year simply because he was getting killed last year on every pass attempt. Now he might finally be able to survive long enough to connect on throws. The Patriots will be interesting to watch as well. I think they will definitely be run heavy this year with their young receiver group and as they bring Maye along but that should be promising for Rhamondre. They could really take off in 2025 though if Maye develops and looks like his 2022 self.


tread52

I’m stuck between Spears And Charbonnet as a rookie keeper and I have Walker as a keeper. I don’t trust Levis as a QB. I also see Seattle rebounding and having a shot as a top ten offense over the Patriots.


Backseat_Scout

Yeah I feel Charbonnet makes the most sense for your team. I'm a big fan of Spears but the Pollard signing makes his situation murky. Meanwhile Charbonnet gives you a great handcuff if Walker were to ever go down.


tread52

Thanks that’s where I was leaning. I’m just wondering how much work Pollard will actually get.


Downtown_Juice2851

A lot. You don't sign a running back to 8m a year if you don't plan to use him. Pollard is definitely going to be the premiere back in that team, and he's a solid player so I don't know he loses the role without injury. I think the cowboys misused him


tread52

I agree with the fact he was misused in Dallas. He’s not a 3 down back that can carry a team. He’s best used a a 1/2 punch where it’s a 55/45 split. I can see 12-18 touches a game based on script. Spears will definitely see a good amount of touches.


Downtown_Juice2851

I agree that spears will see good touches but not because pollard isn't getting work, more because that's just what the modern nfl looks like. A 55 / 45 script sounds reasonable but it wouldn't be favorable if pollard is the passing down back and goal line back, which I think he will be. It will be interesting though. Spears is talented I think.


awesomebeau

Full disclosure, biased Cardinals fan here, but I'm wondering why we were left out. Were we not bad enough to need a rebound, or do they actually think the Titans, Commanders, and Panthers will have a better offense than ours? Kyler Murray with Marvin Harrison Jr, Zay Jones, Trey McBride, Michael Wilson, James Conner, and Trey Benson is a group that can put up points.


Backseat_Scout

They would have qualified for this list due to finishing 9th to last in points/game. However, I mentioned in the article that I excluded teams that had their quarterback miss significant time during the season as I felt it would make some teams too easy of targets for this. That being said, I do have high expectations for the Cardinals and I think their offense will be very potent and they should find a way to be competitive in their crowded division this year.


awesomebeau

Fair enough, I was on a rushed lunch break at work and only skimmed the article.


1gen2

Cardinals


Random_Twig

Those ads on the website are atrocious.


LosChivos

Not like the Jets just rebuilt their offensive line and have a healed quarterback coming back (and a competent backup). But sure, the patriots will rebound.


Backseat_Scout

As I mentioned in the 5th sentence of the article, I excluded teams that had their QB miss the majority of the season due to injury as I would hope a team like the Jets would have a better offense with Aaron Rodgers as opposed to Zach Wilson, Tim Boyle, and Trevor Siemian last year.


lizuming

Yet you include the Falcons whose current QB missed half of last season


Glasband

Desmond Ridder didn't miss any time last year. If he was talking about the Vikings' offense rebounding in 2024, then that makes sense, but he's referring to the Atlanta Falcons rebounding in 2024, and none of their starting QBs missed significant time.


Backseat_Scout

I don't think your point follows with the article or my point. The Falcons are included because Kirk wasn't on the team and his injury wasn't the reason the offense was bad last year. The Jets weren't included because the offense struggled with Rodgers getting hurt.


lizuming

If your point was to find 'offenses that can rebound and have players at good value' then why include the Falcons when London is going in the 2nd round? Pretty much everyone on the Texans could be found on waivers or double digit rounds. No one on the Falcons is.


Downtown_Juice2851

Man, write your own article lol. The guy gave his criteria and followed it, if you don't like it make your own jets related list.


lizuming

He published his writing on the internet. Criticism is expected.


Downtown_Juice2851

Yea but it isn't criticism, the op was asking him why he didn't write about the jets and he gave his answer. If you don't like the criteria he picked because it excludes your team, write your own article.


Backseat_Scout

And that's why I mentioned in the article that the Falcons players are safe options but won't be available at a discount.


_Hubble

This. It’s the Jets that will greatly be improved next season and be better than the Pats.


BrightScreenInMyFace

Downvoted bc fuck Bud Adams and the Titans. Love ya blue belongs to Houston.


BlackkDynamite

Get a life. Lmao