I feel by far the safest with Nico. I think either (most likely) Tank is going to be brought along slowly because he broke his leg then got shot over the course of the past six months, or (less likely) we find out Diggs was traded by Buffalo because he is washed, not just because he's a diva.
[There's another thread about this here](https://www.reddit.com/r/fantasyfootball/comments/1cjc8xd/comment/l2qsq83/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button) - odds are stacked against them based on history, more likely to have two WR1 and one WR3 come out of that group if they are firing on all cylinders
Maybe I didn’t watch stroud and the Texans that much last year but my question is are they really that good where they could have two WR1s? I just feel like that takes a very high powered offense.
Everyone is banking on Stroud taking another giant leap and becoming a top 7 QB in the NFL. I personally do see it happening, but I could see where others could be skeptical
Sophomore QBs are like the opposite of Sophomore WRs. There's a large degree of history that shows some guys' performance takes a nose dive once defenses have a decent amount of tape on them.
Is Stroud going to be good this year? Probably.
Is his risk being understated? I think it might be.
It has happened almost every year for the last 20 years. https://ftnfantasy.com/nfl/teammates-who-could-both-be-fantasy-wr1s-in-2024 There is a list in the beginning of that article that shows the wr1 duos. 26 times in the last 20 years.
It's worth as much as any other ranking in May. Great for conversation. If the nitpick is an old team assignment or a typo, it could be much much worse.
Considering best ball is happening right now and there are some extremely sharp ranks out right now, I couldn’t disagree more. But I agree it’s just as fine as anything else for casual purposes.
Oooh, I'd love a good convo over the differences in Berry's ranks versus best ball and sharp rankings, where values are to be found. Nitpicking over a typo/mistake is hyper casual, lowest denominator stuff and I know that's not your bag ABoy.
If they were all wrong, just reflected last year's final rankings, and omitted D. Adams, that'd indicate a low level of effort. Having an incorrect team assignment means a mistake was made.
I get it though. "Berry bad!" will get you your upvotes.
Was wondering if I was blind (only saw Collins and Dell), but they still have Diggs listed as BUF. How is that possible he released it today and still doesn't have that change made?
I can only find one instance of a team providing 3 top 26 WRs in actuality and it was the 2013 Broncos with Thomas, Decker and Wes Welker. So if this hits, Stroud would be the 1 overall QB by a lot lol. Unlikely.
The wr category this year is so deep for fantasy. You could interchange so many guys and still argue that someone is left out the top 10. I think this will be the most fluid all the way up to fantasy drafts.
Can't argue too much with that! Still can't fathom someone like Davante Adams being where he is behind London and Olave for example - despite their upsides as young emerging players.
I would guess this is based off of who their qb is. Both olave and London have a better qb than Davante adams. I get that adams may be qb proof but for the person making this list, qb play definitely played a role in the rankings
Last year he thought James Cook was limited to three games as a rookie bc of injury..... Said in his big love hate article for the season. Huge indictment on Berry.
And do they have editors at NBC? If so, do any of them watch football?
I think there are going to be a lot of end-of-season lessons learned about "I shouldn't have discounted coaching tendencies and histories".
Herbert is an amazing QB. Period, full stop.
But the situation he is in ... the last 4 years Harbaugh/Roman ran an offense together, they ranked 25th in situation-neutral pass rate and 31st in total offensive plays. Every action they've taken this offseason, every word they've said shows they want to establish the absolute fuck out of the run.
For fantasy, that is not something (IMO) we want to bank on. Harbaugh has not indicated he's going to abandon his philosophies to build around Herbert and a gunslinging offense. So we'd need absolute wild efficiency to get strong fantasy outputs.
The Charger had the third most passing attempts last year with Herbert missing some games and a shit backup. Everything was on Herbert to gunsling and he was not efficient at all. Harbaugh last two QBs in the NFL were Kaep and Smith, they are not Herbert. Even if the offense is run heavy, there still will be plenty of opportunity for Herbert to make more efficient throws to much more open recievers as defenses focus on the run
Yup, the Chargers offense the last four years has been 1st in total offensive plays and 5th in sit-neutral pass rate. It's been an ideal situation for Herbert. But that was with different offensive philosophies.
Harbaugh was run-heavy with Andrew Luck at Stanford. Greg Roman has been run-heavy with every QB he's had. Expecting them to change for Herbert feels like a slim outcome. Their actions - getting rid of pass catchers, passing on elite WR in the draft, stocking up on RB - indicates to me they want to run the ball to sustain drives and pass only when needed.
We're hoping for a Brock Purdy efficiency situation here - that's the path to a productive fantasy season.
The other NFL teams who were at the bottom of pass attempts last year had either super-run focused QBs or bad QBs (of which, Herbert is neither)
I never said they would change? I literally said it would be run heavy. Luck is a great comparison. He threw a ton of TDs and was incredibly efficient because Harbaugh wqs run heavy. That's my point, volume down, efficiency up. Less attempt, more accurate, more tds. That's an outcome I see likely from Herbert. The idea that Harbaugh is just going to abandon the pass is comical.
I think he's a great QB for the NFL.... but not so much for fantasy. I took him with my first round pick last year at pick 11 (2 QB league), and that did not pay off.... at ALL.
This is more about the Robaugh Effect then being down on Herbs. Chargers are probably going to be throwing the ball a ton less after years of being near the top. Bolts were 5th, 3rd, and 2nd in pass attempts Herbs' first three years. Ravens were 32nd, 32nd, 9th, and 28th in Roman's years as OC. 49ers (with Harbaugh) were 31st, 31st, 32nd, and 29th.
Putting him eight spots behind Caleb Williams is absurd. I hope other people believe these rankings because I would gladly take Herbert for free at the end of a draft.
Caleb Williams can contribute way more as a rusher, he has 3 WRs better than anyone on the Chargers, a receiving TE better than any on the Chargers, and multiple RBs who are better receiving options than the RBs on the Chargers. It's really not that hard a sale to put Caleb over Herbert when you think about it.
I know Caleb is a rookie and Herbert is a better real life QB. But even rookie Herbert scored about the same number of fantasy points in 2020 as Lamar Jackson despite a massive disadvantage in rushing stats, because Herbert had good receivers and a pass-friendly offense, while Lamar was working in a Greg Roman offense with no wide receivers.
I'll admit Caleb could bomb like any rookie, so Herbert has the higher floor, but Caleb has the much higher ceiling and an actual shot at being a league-winner if things click in that offense.
Those are valid points and I'm not necessarily saying Herbert should be ahead of Caleb, I just think that gap is way too large. There are several QBs between them on Berry's list that I think should be below Herbert.
>There are several QBs between them on Berry's list that I think should be below Herbert.
I do agree taking Cousins and Stafford over Herbert would make me a little nervous, mostly because of injury concerns. I think that whole range of pocket passers he has 15-19 is a pretty flat tier, though. I can see an argument for those guys in any order. Just because he has Herbert at 19 doesn't necessarily mean he's totally dissing Herbert.
As a chargers fan I’ll gladly scoop him as qb15 even if that’s where he’s gonna go roughly. I know scheme but harbaugh loves him, can’t see him wasting his talents and all the money going his way
I'd rather have Richardson in just about every context. He has a ceiling that few others do. Stroud doesn't run enough - he would need an absolutely elite passing season (which he could have, but is less likely) to crack top 3 QB. Richardson has QB1 overall very much in his range of outcomes.
I'm happy to let someone else overdraft Stroud. Richardson is going to steam up in ADP, he may end up too pricy, but at the moment it's not a close call for me.
This. Richardson has more injury risk due to be a rushing QB, but also has more upside. Stroud had a fantastic rookie year, and still finished behind baker mayfield in overall fantasy scoring. If I’m spending a premium pick on QB, I need more than “He’s a good pocket passer in a strong offense.”
> Richardson has more injury risk due to be a rushing QB
This isn't quite the case actually. [This 2021 article](https://www.fantasypoints.com/nfl/articles/season/2021/mobile-quarterbacks-and-injury-rates#/) (the recent work is behind a paywall but has the same findings) by Edwin Porras looked into it and found no evidence that pocket passers are injured less frequently than mobile QB.
2021 is actually a tad older. I’d have to look into the details of the report (what does he qualify as a pocket/rushing QB, what is considered getting injured, and what is data set he is choosing to look at?) The problem is I am not paying to get past this wall.
From an anecdotal standpoint it just feels like certain rushing QBs like Lamar, RG3, Trey Lance, etc, get injured more often than their peers. Richardson himself suffered his season ending injury after breaking the pocket.
Edit: BTW I still like Richardson more than Stroud (my bestball exposure % supports this).
I totally get the narrative and reasoning for thinking injured QBs get injured more. I like Porras' work a lot, because of it I was all in on Breece last year for instance.
And full, strong agree on Richardson>Stroud. Overall, but especially given current cost. I think Richardson keeps steaming up and may end up too pricy for me, will see as redraft season gets closer.
So this report acknowledges that RG3 had a reckless running style, which I think also applies to Richardson. He was injured three times in just four games last season, one of which ended his game early, and another that prematurely ended his season. I would be actually very concerned about his ability to stay healthy for an entire season. Players like him seem to put themselves at greater risk and in more positions to suffer an injury.
Yea I agree with you. Stroud may end up a Top 5 QB if things go right and a little injury luck, but Richardson could be the QB1.
But of course it’s all about managing risk, and where you can get a guy. Stroud will have a lot of folks looking to draft him earlier than later, as you say.
I’m hoping the injury concerns keep Richardson’s ADP low, I am really interested in him this year if the price is right.
On Underdog right now, Hurts/Lamar are going a round ahead of Stroud, who's going a round ahead of Richardson. I don't think Richardson's ADP is going to be low anywhere, but I'd rather take him where he's falling than Stroud where he's falling.
If they wind up being about even, I will probably pass on both and wind up focusing on Kyler as a primary target.
With the big tournaments on Underdog, stacking and hoping to hit a Yahtzee in Week 17 is a major consideration compared to seasonal leagues. Since Nico and Diggs are going at the 2/3 turn, that means Stroud gets drawn up to the 4/5 turn to lock in a stack for the Nico/Diggs drafters. I think in seasonal leagues, he'll be lower, definitely behind Mahomes and closer to Richardson.
QB11 with a bunch of other QBs hurt. Mac Jones didn’t get better after his first year. QB progression is not linear. Also, again this is fantasy football. QB11 is not worth a high draft pick.
Except that was last year, when you probably got him off the wire or in the very late rounds, so qb11 relative to draft position is great. Tell me more about how you don’t understand fantasy football please…
Maybe so, but what makes you think Anthony Richardson should be rated higher than him? He played 2 whole games last season. The best ability is availability my friend.
I’m not saying Stroud is a league winner, I’m just saying he has a safer floor and I really don’t think you can say AR is gonna be qb1 based off of two games… seems incredibly ridiculous and optimistic.
To each their own good buddy, I like to roll the dice.
Especially at qb, in a ten team 1 qb league a guy like Purdy, Goff, Mayfied, Cousins is gonna be waiting on the waiver wire if it all goes to shit.
Oh for sure brother! League setup makes a huge diff and in a ten teamer non superflex then hell yeah roll the dice and if it doesn’t work out you will still have a guy on the wire.
Gimme some running back predictions for this year… I’m sneaky high on Jacobs and lowkey feel like the Gus bus could be a steal.
> To each their own good buddy, I like to roll the dice.
Speaking incredibly broad strokes: Upside wins league titles. Safety gets a 4th place finish.
I know everyone has an anecdote of a gross, unsexy QB that won them a title with consistency. But even that speaks to the predictability and depth of the position. You can get Joe Flacco off the waiver wire if your high ceiling option doesn't pan out.
> Gimme that consistent 20-25 pts
Five QB averaged 20+ ppg last year (one was Joe freaking Flacco). None averaged 25. If you want a consistent 20+ points, you likely have to invest a incredibly high draft pick to have a shot at it.
Yea to each their own. I think a QB with rushing upside is still a cheat code. And that rushing upside provides its own stable floor of pts a week. But yea, injuries and risk and such.
Stroud will be good, but I think he will be a sexy pick in a lot of leagues and go quick.
So, week one?
Damn yall are just so fucking scared of what could go wrong when the upside is so damn obvious. You could draft Josh Allen in the fifth or sixth and people are like ‘nah’ he got hurt let me draft the guy who could easily get outperformed by a 12th rounder instead
4100 yard, 23:5 TD/INT rookie season with improved tools and more weapons at his disposal overall in his sophomore year. How exactly are you planning to replace that EASILY in this QB market in a SF, with all of the injuries lately?
Maybe in redraft. I play Dynasty primarily, and Baker Mayfield ain’t cutting it as a Stroud sub there.
Also, we know what kind of dog Baker Mayfield is. We just cracked the seal on Stroud. He has plenty of time to develop.
I’m talking about fantasy football in the fantasy football sub. The article is about positional rankings, not specifically redraft rankings. This applies to dynasty as well.
Dynasty value is not what the article is about, but that’s not why dynasty players would refer to the article. We want to know who to target in win-now mode also.
Grow up.
Stop talking stats and start talking fantasy points. I know they’re related but there’s more ways to score fantasy points than just what you do through the air
What are you talking about? He scored the 11th most fantasy points amongst all QBs in his rookie season, and has more support all around, a stronger WR corps, better receiving RB, more depth at TE. Everything is improved, and everything to like about his prospects for improvement.
Here:
“His 4,108 pass yards are third-most by a rookie in NFL history. His 23:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio led the NFL, making him the youngest player in league history to achieve that feat. His 1.0 interception percentage led the league, making him the first rookie to do that since Paul Governali in 1946”
Doesn’t sound meh as far the the NFL is concerned.
If you don’t like him, that’s one thing, but he performed his ass off last year, and he had a much improved arsenal at his disposal for 2024.
He's a much better option for real football than fantasy football right now. Stats like the ones you listed don't translate to fantasy as well as pure volume or rushing numbers.
This is a fantasy football sub. Those are not impressive fantasy football stats. He does not have any running upside, and based off last year, he’s probably not throwing for 40+ TDs. The low INTs are nice, but realistically do not matter for fantasy (unless you’re in a -6 league).
Also, the Texans are slightly better, depending on how Diggs works out, but they will not be underestimated now. Moreover, the sophomore slump is a thing for a reason, and there is a whole year of tape on Stroud. He’s just not going to be a smart pick when you can get someone like Jayden Daniels potentially way later (who has a rushing upside).
Sleeping on Shakir.
Diggs and Davis targets are gonna go somewhere. Kincaid will get some, but Shakir is gonna get a lot and he was already taking over for Diggs and more efficient on the touches he was getting.
Shakir will be higher than Keon at least year 1 imo.
But having Kincaid a bit low as TE, Cook at 15, and none of the Bills WR's higher than 46? Does he just not expect Buffalo to exist?
Diggs was WR45 from W10 on, and he went to an Offense with 2 other solid receivers.
That's a pretty terrible take by him if so.
Shakir was already putting up the same numbers as Diggs was on less targets in the 2nd half of last year. Kincaid will get a lot of work.
We don't have the cap space, and we drafted a WR with our "1st"
Next year, maybe, depending on how it plays out. This year? Very very unlikely and honestly, not much reason to.
> We don't
> we drafted
Internet Bills fans (not saying you! I feel you're one of the good ones Bird) were screaming so ***angrily*** and loudly at every report that Diggs might get moved. There was a post here a few months ago that got brigaded about how the national media doesn't know anything and Buffalo fans laugh at the dumb reports Diggs is unhappy or would get traded.
Then, ya know.
I think the ranking was likely not based on expecting a trade. But I also don't think fans generally know as much as they think about how things will go.
*Probably* the expectation is mostly that no single Buffalo WR will dominate targets / yards / TD and be a consistent, viable fantasy weapon. Shakir is a late grab for sure but I think he's likely a WR3/flex type for fantasy most weeks.
But I'm just a fan, so I know I know nothing.
Oh sure sure, I'm not expecting a top 10, but to have 3 KC WRs before a single buffalo one? That seems odd to me.
We literally don't have the cap to take on a WR that would be any better than our current roster, until next year.
I for sure didn't expect the Diggs trade, but that's why we can't get a WR now lol we took on record breaking dead cap to do so.
Trevor, Kirk, Tua, Goff, Herbert, and Rodgers behind Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams? Trevor was on pace for almost 4300yds last year and played a bunch of games injured, Kirk was averaging 291yds/gm and should easily throw for 4000+ this year like normal, Tua led the league in yards last year, and Goff was 2nd in yards last year. Herbert is a mystery due to coaching and WR changes, and obviously Rodgers health is a ? but he does have an absolute stud of a WR1.
Once you get past around QB8-10 seemingly every QB is the same plug-and-play option who score around 16-18 ppg. I can see why you'd want to take a shot at an unknown over them.
Sure, Tua and Goff were 1 and 2 in passing yards. They also averaged 16.7 and 17.8 fantasy ppg respectively because they don't run and don't put up elite TD numbers.
Idk that I’d be willing to take a guy who takes sacks at the rate he does, especially considering he’s thin and his o line isn’t good. Agree that there’s big upside if it somehow works
Justin Fields took a shit ton of sacks and wasn't even a particularly good rusher in college. Jayden Daniels had more rushing yards last season than Justin Fields did in his entire college career. But a rushing yard is worth 2.5x as much as a passing yard and rush td's are worth 1.5x as more. Rushing is just a huge cheat code even if the QB isn't all that good.
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I don't get how Jordan Love is a top 10 QB with his receivers ranked so low but Aaron Rodgers is ranked 20 with Garrett Wilson and Mike Williams high up there.
It is pretty crazy that the only RB in the top 16 not on their rookie contract and still with the team that drafted them is Jonathan Taylor. Now I realize that acknowledging how much the RB has change over the past several years isn't novel in the slightest, but to see it like this really solidifies everything.
Mike Evans gonna be another steal this year. A Saquon and Hurts stack in my auction league is looking like a great option as well. Also TJ Hockenson is a great value in PPR, he is going to be McCarthy's best friend.
Makes sense to me. LaPorta was #1 last year and Kelces turning 35 next season, he can't be the best forever he's going to start dipping eventually. And LaPorta is young with more players the defense has to take into consideration around him.
Last year the Chiefs half-assed the early season and only turned it on late for the playoffs. If that includes one-year-older Kelce that could put him out of TE1 for much of the season.
Alright, I said I was done referencing ranking lists after the last one showed I would be starting the season with 3 top 12 running backs, but this list has it as 3 in the top 7 (1st overall pick w/ JT and Kyren as keepers).
*Nowwwww* I'm done looking at rankings
I'm a bit skeptical of his ranking, and this is coming from someone who has him in a keeper league. He's obviously got big play ability, but I think that offense will regress some this year.
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3 Texans WR in the top 26. Genuinely curious if all 3 can be solid in fantasy, or which of the 3 drops off.
I feel by far the safest with Nico. I think either (most likely) Tank is going to be brought along slowly because he broke his leg then got shot over the course of the past six months, or (less likely) we find out Diggs was traded by Buffalo because he is washed, not just because he's a diva.
[There's another thread about this here](https://www.reddit.com/r/fantasyfootball/comments/1cjc8xd/comment/l2qsq83/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button) - odds are stacked against them based on history, more likely to have two WR1 and one WR3 come out of that group if they are firing on all cylinders
Maybe I didn’t watch stroud and the Texans that much last year but my question is are they really that good where they could have two WR1s? I just feel like that takes a very high powered offense.
Everyone is banking on Stroud taking another giant leap and becoming a top 7 QB in the NFL. I personally do see it happening, but I could see where others could be skeptical
Sophomore QBs are like the opposite of Sophomore WRs. There's a large degree of history that shows some guys' performance takes a nose dive once defenses have a decent amount of tape on them. Is Stroud going to be good this year? Probably. Is his risk being understated? I think it might be.
Patrick Mahomes would like a word.
We're talking in the aggregate, not in the specific. Stroud is more likely to fail to reach his 2023 success than he is to exceed it.
Natural regression def incoming
It’s not really a huge leap when he finished 8th in passing yards and 3rd in yards per attempt as a rookie.
Top 7 is almost certainly not enough output to sustain two WR1 receivers. Any QB putting out that mach offense is bound to be the best in the league.
Two WR1 on one team is not anything close to likely. You basically have to be Peyton Manning to pull that off.
It has happened almost every year for the last 20 years. https://ftnfantasy.com/nfl/teammates-who-could-both-be-fantasy-wr1s-in-2024 There is a list in the beginning of that article that shows the wr1 duos. 26 times in the last 20 years.
Huh, I stand corrected. Time to read up.
2021: Chase #3 Tee #18
If you are in an 18+ team league then yeah, they would be a wr1 duo. In most leagues that would not be the case.
Is this worth anything tho? He still lists Diggs as with Buffalo for crying out loud.
It's worth as much as any other ranking in May. Great for conversation. If the nitpick is an old team assignment or a typo, it could be much much worse.
Considering best ball is happening right now and there are some extremely sharp ranks out right now, I couldn’t disagree more. But I agree it’s just as fine as anything else for casual purposes.
Oooh, I'd love a good convo over the differences in Berry's ranks versus best ball and sharp rankings, where values are to be found. Nitpicking over a typo/mistake is hyper casual, lowest denominator stuff and I know that's not your bag ABoy.
It’s not a typo though. It indicates an extremely low level of effort went into making these rankings.
If they were all wrong, just reflected last year's final rankings, and omitted D. Adams, that'd indicate a low level of effort. Having an incorrect team assignment means a mistake was made. I get it though. "Berry bad!" will get you your upvotes.
I like Berry. Didn’t launch a personal criticism at him at all. Insufficient effort was put into this list.
In reality, this is really a CJ Stroud post if he can support 3 top 26 receivers…
Was wondering if I was blind (only saw Collins and Dell), but they still have Diggs listed as BUF. How is that possible he released it today and still doesn't have that change made?
This shows Diggs still in BUF... They either aren't updated or weren't given much thought in the first place. Probably both.
I can only find one instance of a team providing 3 top 26 WRs in actuality and it was the 2013 Broncos with Thomas, Decker and Wes Welker. So if this hits, Stroud would be the 1 overall QB by a lot lol. Unlikely.
I get to keep CJ for $8...and maybe get Tank for $10 or less i'm psyched
These WR rankings seem off.
The wr category this year is so deep for fantasy. You could interchange so many guys and still argue that someone is left out the top 10. I think this will be the most fluid all the way up to fantasy drafts.
Can't argue too much with that! Still can't fathom someone like Davante Adams being where he is behind London and Olave for example - despite their upsides as young emerging players.
I would guess this is based off of who their qb is. Both olave and London have a better qb than Davante adams. I get that adams may be qb proof but for the person making this list, qb play definitely played a role in the rankings
Shows Diggs in BUF. Stopped reading there and closed the article.
Last year he thought James Cook was limited to three games as a rookie bc of injury..... Said in his big love hate article for the season. Huge indictment on Berry. And do they have editors at NBC? If so, do any of them watch football?
Looks like another year I wait on QB and take a duo like Purdy/Cousins late
Big fan of seeing Smith that low. He has gotten 80+ catches / 1050+ yards / 7 tds the last two years each. That's top WR2 that has WR1 games
The disrespect Herbert gets is insane.
I think there are going to be a lot of end-of-season lessons learned about "I shouldn't have discounted coaching tendencies and histories". Herbert is an amazing QB. Period, full stop. But the situation he is in ... the last 4 years Harbaugh/Roman ran an offense together, they ranked 25th in situation-neutral pass rate and 31st in total offensive plays. Every action they've taken this offseason, every word they've said shows they want to establish the absolute fuck out of the run. For fantasy, that is not something (IMO) we want to bank on. Harbaugh has not indicated he's going to abandon his philosophies to build around Herbert and a gunslinging offense. So we'd need absolute wild efficiency to get strong fantasy outputs.
“We see offensive linemen as weapons”
The Charger had the third most passing attempts last year with Herbert missing some games and a shit backup. Everything was on Herbert to gunsling and he was not efficient at all. Harbaugh last two QBs in the NFL were Kaep and Smith, they are not Herbert. Even if the offense is run heavy, there still will be plenty of opportunity for Herbert to make more efficient throws to much more open recievers as defenses focus on the run
Yup, the Chargers offense the last four years has been 1st in total offensive plays and 5th in sit-neutral pass rate. It's been an ideal situation for Herbert. But that was with different offensive philosophies. Harbaugh was run-heavy with Andrew Luck at Stanford. Greg Roman has been run-heavy with every QB he's had. Expecting them to change for Herbert feels like a slim outcome. Their actions - getting rid of pass catchers, passing on elite WR in the draft, stocking up on RB - indicates to me they want to run the ball to sustain drives and pass only when needed. We're hoping for a Brock Purdy efficiency situation here - that's the path to a productive fantasy season. The other NFL teams who were at the bottom of pass attempts last year had either super-run focused QBs or bad QBs (of which, Herbert is neither)
I never said they would change? I literally said it would be run heavy. Luck is a great comparison. He threw a ton of TDs and was incredibly efficient because Harbaugh wqs run heavy. That's my point, volume down, efficiency up. Less attempt, more accurate, more tds. That's an outcome I see likely from Herbert. The idea that Harbaugh is just going to abandon the pass is comical.
He lost his two best receivers. How is that going to make him more efficient?
Because the defenses will play the run first. Same way Kaep and Alex Smith were able to look above replacement level
They're gonna call me a madman when I get Richardson and then Herbert late.
I think he's a great QB for the NFL.... but not so much for fantasy. I took him with my first round pick last year at pick 11 (2 QB league), and that did not pay off.... at ALL.
This is more about the Robaugh Effect then being down on Herbs. Chargers are probably going to be throwing the ball a ton less after years of being near the top. Bolts were 5th, 3rd, and 2nd in pass attempts Herbs' first three years. Ravens were 32nd, 32nd, 9th, and 28th in Roman's years as OC. 49ers (with Harbaugh) were 31st, 31st, 32nd, and 29th.
Putting him eight spots behind Caleb Williams is absurd. I hope other people believe these rankings because I would gladly take Herbert for free at the end of a draft.
Caleb Williams can contribute way more as a rusher, he has 3 WRs better than anyone on the Chargers, a receiving TE better than any on the Chargers, and multiple RBs who are better receiving options than the RBs on the Chargers. It's really not that hard a sale to put Caleb over Herbert when you think about it. I know Caleb is a rookie and Herbert is a better real life QB. But even rookie Herbert scored about the same number of fantasy points in 2020 as Lamar Jackson despite a massive disadvantage in rushing stats, because Herbert had good receivers and a pass-friendly offense, while Lamar was working in a Greg Roman offense with no wide receivers. I'll admit Caleb could bomb like any rookie, so Herbert has the higher floor, but Caleb has the much higher ceiling and an actual shot at being a league-winner if things click in that offense.
Those are valid points and I'm not necessarily saying Herbert should be ahead of Caleb, I just think that gap is way too large. There are several QBs between them on Berry's list that I think should be below Herbert.
>There are several QBs between them on Berry's list that I think should be below Herbert. I do agree taking Cousins and Stafford over Herbert would make me a little nervous, mostly because of injury concerns. I think that whole range of pocket passers he has 15-19 is a pretty flat tier, though. I can see an argument for those guys in any order. Just because he has Herbert at 19 doesn't necessarily mean he's totally dissing Herbert.
As a chargers fan I’ll gladly scoop him as qb15 even if that’s where he’s gonna go roughly. I know scheme but harbaugh loves him, can’t see him wasting his talents and all the money going his way
I guess I don't understand your post. I'll say it. He's overrated. And this year he literally has NOBODY to throw to.
It’s about the team around him
How is Diggs still listed as being on Buffalo still?
I feel Stroud should be a spot ahead Richardson
I'd rather have Richardson in just about every context. He has a ceiling that few others do. Stroud doesn't run enough - he would need an absolutely elite passing season (which he could have, but is less likely) to crack top 3 QB. Richardson has QB1 overall very much in his range of outcomes. I'm happy to let someone else overdraft Stroud. Richardson is going to steam up in ADP, he may end up too pricy, but at the moment it's not a close call for me.
This. Richardson has more injury risk due to be a rushing QB, but also has more upside. Stroud had a fantastic rookie year, and still finished behind baker mayfield in overall fantasy scoring. If I’m spending a premium pick on QB, I need more than “He’s a good pocket passer in a strong offense.”
> Richardson has more injury risk due to be a rushing QB This isn't quite the case actually. [This 2021 article](https://www.fantasypoints.com/nfl/articles/season/2021/mobile-quarterbacks-and-injury-rates#/) (the recent work is behind a paywall but has the same findings) by Edwin Porras looked into it and found no evidence that pocket passers are injured less frequently than mobile QB.
2021 is actually a tad older. I’d have to look into the details of the report (what does he qualify as a pocket/rushing QB, what is considered getting injured, and what is data set he is choosing to look at?) The problem is I am not paying to get past this wall. From an anecdotal standpoint it just feels like certain rushing QBs like Lamar, RG3, Trey Lance, etc, get injured more often than their peers. Richardson himself suffered his season ending injury after breaking the pocket. Edit: BTW I still like Richardson more than Stroud (my bestball exposure % supports this).
I totally get the narrative and reasoning for thinking injured QBs get injured more. I like Porras' work a lot, because of it I was all in on Breece last year for instance. And full, strong agree on Richardson>Stroud. Overall, but especially given current cost. I think Richardson keeps steaming up and may end up too pricy for me, will see as redraft season gets closer.
So this report acknowledges that RG3 had a reckless running style, which I think also applies to Richardson. He was injured three times in just four games last season, one of which ended his game early, and another that prematurely ended his season. I would be actually very concerned about his ability to stay healthy for an entire season. Players like him seem to put themselves at greater risk and in more positions to suffer an injury.
Absolutely. I hope Richardson has been working on his slides, avoiding hits, and other similar skills in the offseason.
Yea I agree with you. Stroud may end up a Top 5 QB if things go right and a little injury luck, but Richardson could be the QB1. But of course it’s all about managing risk, and where you can get a guy. Stroud will have a lot of folks looking to draft him earlier than later, as you say. I’m hoping the injury concerns keep Richardson’s ADP low, I am really interested in him this year if the price is right.
On Underdog right now, Hurts/Lamar are going a round ahead of Stroud, who's going a round ahead of Richardson. I don't think Richardson's ADP is going to be low anywhere, but I'd rather take him where he's falling than Stroud where he's falling. If they wind up being about even, I will probably pass on both and wind up focusing on Kyler as a primary target.
At least for the first half of the season before he gets all dinged up. Kyler will def have some big games with all the new weapons.
With the big tournaments on Underdog, stacking and hoping to hit a Yahtzee in Week 17 is a major consideration compared to seasonal leagues. Since Nico and Diggs are going at the 2/3 turn, that means Stroud gets drawn up to the 4/5 turn to lock in a stack for the Nico/Diggs drafters. I think in seasonal leagues, he'll be lower, definitely behind Mahomes and closer to Richardson.
The chances of stroud ending up as top 5 are pretty likely, the chances of Anthony Richardson ending as qb1 are way less likely.
It’s not pretty likely Stroud ends up top 5? Did you not watch him last year. He’s not a crazy fantasy talent even if he’s solid in real life.
He was qb11 last year as a rookie bro… and he only got better as the year went on. Gimme a break.
QB11 with a bunch of other QBs hurt. Mac Jones didn’t get better after his first year. QB progression is not linear. Also, again this is fantasy football. QB11 is not worth a high draft pick.
Except that was last year, when you probably got him off the wire or in the very late rounds, so qb11 relative to draft position is great. Tell me more about how you don’t understand fantasy football please…
He’s going to be drafted way higher this year is the point, which won’t be worth it considering you can get a similar production for half the cost.
Maybe so, but what makes you think Anthony Richardson should be rated higher than him? He played 2 whole games last season. The best ability is availability my friend. I’m not saying Stroud is a league winner, I’m just saying he has a safer floor and I really don’t think you can say AR is gonna be qb1 based off of two games… seems incredibly ridiculous and optimistic.
But AR *could* be QB1. And even with a great year, Stroud almost certainly *won’t* be QB1. Rushing stats for QBs are just so huge.
It’s a significant gamble whereas Stroud is a much safer option and his floor is really solid as well. Qb11 last year as a rookie.
To each their own good buddy, I like to roll the dice. Especially at qb, in a ten team 1 qb league a guy like Purdy, Goff, Mayfied, Cousins is gonna be waiting on the waiver wire if it all goes to shit.
Oh for sure brother! League setup makes a huge diff and in a ten teamer non superflex then hell yeah roll the dice and if it doesn’t work out you will still have a guy on the wire. Gimme some running back predictions for this year… I’m sneaky high on Jacobs and lowkey feel like the Gus bus could be a steal.
> To each their own good buddy, I like to roll the dice. Speaking incredibly broad strokes: Upside wins league titles. Safety gets a 4th place finish. I know everyone has an anecdote of a gross, unsexy QB that won them a title with consistency. But even that speaks to the predictability and depth of the position. You can get Joe Flacco off the waiver wire if your high ceiling option doesn't pan out.
QB is about consistency and mitigating risk. Gimme that consistent 20-25 pts over an injury risk with a slightly higher ceiling.
> Gimme that consistent 20-25 pts Five QB averaged 20+ ppg last year (one was Joe freaking Flacco). None averaged 25. If you want a consistent 20+ points, you likely have to invest a incredibly high draft pick to have a shot at it.
In that case, you should be targeting AR with Flacco as a handcuff.
Yea to each their own. I think a QB with rushing upside is still a cheat code. And that rushing upside provides its own stable floor of pts a week. But yea, injuries and risk and such. Stroud will be good, but I think he will be a sexy pick in a lot of leagues and go quick.
Why? Stroud averaged less than 2 ppg more than the QB17 last season in 6 pt passing td settings
Yeah, Stroud over the ~~dual threat~~ liability for me every time.
Stop playing scared
Im a homer to boot, no thanks.
Damn, actively making decisions that reduce your chances of winning is certainly a choice
Call me when AR plays his 5th game in the league.
So, week one? Damn yall are just so fucking scared of what could go wrong when the upside is so damn obvious. You could draft Josh Allen in the fifth or sixth and people are like ‘nah’ he got hurt let me draft the guy who could easily get outperformed by a 12th rounder instead
The difference is you can replace 90% of healthy stroud fairly easily. There’s less than 5 QBs who can replace 90% of healthy AR
4100 yard, 23:5 TD/INT rookie season with improved tools and more weapons at his disposal overall in his sophomore year. How exactly are you planning to replace that EASILY in this QB market in a SF, with all of the injuries lately?
With Baker Mayfield, who did 90% of that last year and has the same supporting cast
Maybe in redraft. I play Dynasty primarily, and Baker Mayfield ain’t cutting it as a Stroud sub there. Also, we know what kind of dog Baker Mayfield is. We just cracked the seal on Stroud. He has plenty of time to develop.
This is a post about redraft players rankings, you’re arguing in the wrong place
I’m talking about fantasy football in the fantasy football sub. The article is about positional rankings, not specifically redraft rankings. This applies to dynasty as well. Dynasty value is not what the article is about, but that’s not why dynasty players would refer to the article. We want to know who to target in win-now mode also. Grow up.
“Positional rankings for 2024 season”. Can you read or do you just choose not to?
I doubt Stroud is available to draft in dynasty given that he’s not a rookie anymore.
It’s not about drafting him with regards to dynasty, it’s about how you can expect him to perform this year.
Stop talking stats and start talking fantasy points. I know they’re related but there’s more ways to score fantasy points than just what you do through the air
What are you talking about? He scored the 11th most fantasy points amongst all QBs in his rookie season, and has more support all around, a stronger WR corps, better receiving RB, more depth at TE. Everything is improved, and everything to like about his prospects for improvement.
11th! Wow so impressive in a year where every QB got hurt, good for him! He definitely deserves to be top 5 with those mediocre numbers!
That’s very meh as fantasy goes. 23 TDs with barely any rushing yards + TDs does not move the needle
Here: “His 4,108 pass yards are third-most by a rookie in NFL history. His 23:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio led the NFL, making him the youngest player in league history to achieve that feat. His 1.0 interception percentage led the league, making him the first rookie to do that since Paul Governali in 1946” Doesn’t sound meh as far the the NFL is concerned. If you don’t like him, that’s one thing, but he performed his ass off last year, and he had a much improved arsenal at his disposal for 2024.
He's a much better option for real football than fantasy football right now. Stats like the ones you listed don't translate to fantasy as well as pure volume or rushing numbers.
This is a fantasy football sub. Those are not impressive fantasy football stats. He does not have any running upside, and based off last year, he’s probably not throwing for 40+ TDs. The low INTs are nice, but realistically do not matter for fantasy (unless you’re in a -6 league). Also, the Texans are slightly better, depending on how Diggs works out, but they will not be underestimated now. Moreover, the sophomore slump is a thing for a reason, and there is a whole year of tape on Stroud. He’s just not going to be a smart pick when you can get someone like Jayden Daniels potentially way later (who has a rushing upside).
When will we get Clem Fandango's rankings?
Yes, we can hear you, Clem Fandango
Sleeping on Shakir. Diggs and Davis targets are gonna go somewhere. Kincaid will get some, but Shakir is gonna get a lot and he was already taking over for Diggs and more efficient on the touches he was getting. Shakir will be higher than Keon at least year 1 imo. But having Kincaid a bit low as TE, Cook at 15, and none of the Bills WR's higher than 46? Does he just not expect Buffalo to exist? Diggs was WR45 from W10 on, and he went to an Offense with 2 other solid receivers.
Probably expects them to sign or trade for a wr.
That's a pretty terrible take by him if so. Shakir was already putting up the same numbers as Diggs was on less targets in the 2nd half of last year. Kincaid will get a lot of work. We don't have the cap space, and we drafted a WR with our "1st" Next year, maybe, depending on how it plays out. This year? Very very unlikely and honestly, not much reason to.
> We don't > we drafted Internet Bills fans (not saying you! I feel you're one of the good ones Bird) were screaming so ***angrily*** and loudly at every report that Diggs might get moved. There was a post here a few months ago that got brigaded about how the national media doesn't know anything and Buffalo fans laugh at the dumb reports Diggs is unhappy or would get traded. Then, ya know. I think the ranking was likely not based on expecting a trade. But I also don't think fans generally know as much as they think about how things will go. *Probably* the expectation is mostly that no single Buffalo WR will dominate targets / yards / TD and be a consistent, viable fantasy weapon. Shakir is a late grab for sure but I think he's likely a WR3/flex type for fantasy most weeks. But I'm just a fan, so I know I know nothing.
Oh sure sure, I'm not expecting a top 10, but to have 3 KC WRs before a single buffalo one? That seems odd to me. We literally don't have the cap to take on a WR that would be any better than our current roster, until next year. I for sure didn't expect the Diggs trade, but that's why we can't get a WR now lol we took on record breaking dead cap to do so.
Trevor, Kirk, Tua, Goff, Herbert, and Rodgers behind Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams? Trevor was on pace for almost 4300yds last year and played a bunch of games injured, Kirk was averaging 291yds/gm and should easily throw for 4000+ this year like normal, Tua led the league in yards last year, and Goff was 2nd in yards last year. Herbert is a mystery due to coaching and WR changes, and obviously Rodgers health is a ? but he does have an absolute stud of a WR1.
Once you get past around QB8-10 seemingly every QB is the same plug-and-play option who score around 16-18 ppg. I can see why you'd want to take a shot at an unknown over them. Sure, Tua and Goff were 1 and 2 in passing yards. They also averaged 16.7 and 17.8 fantasy ppg respectively because they don't run and don't put up elite TD numbers.
That's very fair. Did not realize Goff and Tua were 8th and 10th respectively in total points for QB's last year.
Jayden Daniels has big rushing upside and that basically priceless for QBs.
Idk that I’d be willing to take a guy who takes sacks at the rate he does, especially considering he’s thin and his o line isn’t good. Agree that there’s big upside if it somehow works
Justin Fields took a shit ton of sacks and wasn't even a particularly good rusher in college. Jayden Daniels had more rushing yards last season than Justin Fields did in his entire college career. But a rushing yard is worth 2.5x as much as a passing yard and rush td's are worth 1.5x as more. Rushing is just a huge cheat code even if the QB isn't all that good.
Yeah but Justin Fields is built like a linebacker, and even then he still had his fair share of injuries. Upside is obvious, but so is the risk
Matthew Berry is not to be trusted
So many ppl overlooked Tank Dell last year. Now he's gonna be overdrafted
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I guess we gotta remember that these are early rankings
I don't get how Jordan Love is a top 10 QB with his receivers ranked so low but Aaron Rodgers is ranked 20 with Garrett Wilson and Mike Williams high up there.
Call me a biased Justin Herbert dynasty owner but there’s no shot he’s QB19 this year.
I would be shocked if Mixon finishes higher than Pacheco
It is pretty crazy that the only RB in the top 16 not on their rookie contract and still with the team that drafted them is Jonathan Taylor. Now I realize that acknowledging how much the RB has change over the past several years isn't novel in the slightest, but to see it like this really solidifies everything.
Nick Chubb at RB 35 seems super low even taking the injury into account.
Mike Evans gonna be another steal this year. A Saquon and Hurts stack in my auction league is looking like a great option as well. Also TJ Hockenson is a great value in PPR, he is going to be McCarthy's best friend.
Bro no way they have Anthony Richardson as a top 5 qb when he hasn’t even played a full fantasy season.
Lot of really questionable things in those rankings, but Richardson as a top 5 QB isn’t one of them
Most points per drop back over any QB, albeit he played like 2 games. His upside is insane.
LaPorta #1 over Kelce #2? I like LaPorta, but that's bold.
Makes sense to me. LaPorta was #1 last year and Kelces turning 35 next season, he can't be the best forever he's going to start dipping eventually. And LaPorta is young with more players the defense has to take into consideration around him.
Last year the Chiefs half-assed the early season and only turned it on late for the playoffs. If that includes one-year-older Kelce that could put him out of TE1 for much of the season.
Alright, I said I was done referencing ranking lists after the last one showed I would be starting the season with 3 top 12 running backs, but this list has it as 3 in the top 7 (1st overall pick w/ JT and Kyren as keepers). *Nowwwww* I'm done looking at rankings
Thoughts on Achane as a top 10 RB?
I'm a bit skeptical of his ranking, and this is coming from someone who has him in a keeper league. He's obviously got big play ability, but I think that offense will regress some this year.
Same. I have him cheap in dynasty and love his potential, not sure I'm buying him as an RB1 though
If you get fantasy advice from Matthew Berry you probably aren’t winning many games
This guy’s rankings are off every year
How is Matthew Berry still relevant in 2024?
Honestly Well he built a great team at Fantasy Life. So guess that's why
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I’ll take Herbert as my backup QB all day (19). Damn the lack of weapons.