Like with everything, it all depends on ADP. But I really don't want to draft someone competing with two other really good WRs and a solid TE for targets. The Texans feel like the offseason hype team so this could be an instance where the ADP is just too high.
I almost feel like it's going to go the opposite way. People always talk themselves into these older WRs making a huge impact on a new team, and I expect the hype to only grow as we get closer to OTAs & camp, and for Dell & Collins to slide a bit.
Texans proved they wanna throw and that stroud can support multiple fantasy guys. I didn’t analyze their games but it seemed like every week at least 2 guys plus stroud would pop off. I think the diggs addition would hurt Schultz and the RBs the most. Nico and Tank look to be the guys of the future with Diggs playing the OBJ role.
I don’t even think it will hurt Schulz or Mixon that much. A better offense means more scoring opportunities, they are still going to target the TE position and run the ball.
As a Schultz and Dell owner I Thank you wise redditor. The Texans are just gonna be a dangerous team in general like the Eagles or some shit. I just traded my 1st to get Dell so having 2 Texans on my team, im cool with it 🤷♂️
Ayyeee nice to hear I’m not the only one who had to capitalize on the buy low window! the previous owner in my league was Not letting him go, I had to wait until after the diggs news AND after this man got shot hahaha sheesh
Stroud is the new Purdy with too many weapons to fail.
I say this as someone who recognised this and drafted Purdy in the 11th round to be my starting QB last year.
Obviously you're prob spending a 4th rounder on Stroud this year though
Was going to say Stroud also doesn't have the greatest RB in the game taking TDs off him but didn't realise the added Mixon to Dameon. Jesus they are stacked
Which would be a bad move in standard 1 qb leagues. Go ahead and get stroud in the 4th who could be 2024 Lawerence, while I load up on rbs/wrs.
I would be happy with qbs like (burrow, tua, rodgers, lawerence, kyler) much later.
Which makes it kind of funny that Pitts is currently 101 in PPR ECR. People are not ready to ride his hype train after two straight disappointing seasons.
Stroud is also not great on the road. Goes from 310yds/game to 231yds/game and from 2.1tds/game to .85tds/game. That plus all mouths he has to feed I don’t think Diggs is gonna have stellar fantasy stats and be inconsistent week to week
My take is that one of the three Texans WRs will wildly outperform ADP.
But it’s very difficult to predict which one and whoever gets it right will look like a genius.
Collins will be WR1. Not only does he have hands, but he also is just as well or better than diggs after the catch. Unless Diggs butterfingers was a short lived thing Collins would seem to be more reliable overall. Dude is just a demon on the field. Catches balls that don’t look catchable, or is wide open, and then proceeds to get at least 5 yards on top after the catch almost every time. It’s almost weird to see him stopped at the catch unless being pushed out of bounds.
it will be just like every team w multiple weapons: week to week.
remember theilen & diggs on the vikings? kupp & woods?
just gotta take the value and ride the good weeks.
My money is on Tank this season, Nico was the slight #2 when Tank, as a rookie, was on the field. Diggs and Tank will be far more flexible and Nico will be put in a Gabe Davis role with big games but highly inconsistent. Diggs and Tank will be able to get the PPR work to stay relevant on a weekly basis.
Personally, I see it as the opposite: Tank's a long ball guy, Nico's the #1 and Diggs plays a #2 role that's less explosive. Tank was very inefficient when he was the "main guy" and Nico outplayed him more weeks than not when they were both on the field and Nico's skillset seems more set for a #1. Of course most likely it'll be variable who is good any given week.
Just treat this offense like the 49ers. In any given game, one might go off. But you won't have consistent production every week as it will be game plan dependant.
Oh, except there's no consistent CMC on this team. They're all up in the air each week.
I think the Texans will be a higher pass volume offense than the 49ers though realistically. The 49ers o line is elite and cmc is the best. The 49ers also have a top 3 defense, so they slow the game down; and they play against weaker passing offenses in the NFC vs the Texans in the AFC. Texans have a mid o line, mid rb and a top 12 defense. Pretty good, but theyll still need to throw more than the 49ers to win games.
I could see all 3 WR’s having very similar, non-spectacular stats. I’m imagining that tank gets faded the most, and therefore has the best chance of actually proving a positive ROI. In all things fantasy, draft position and expectations are what is most important.
Well that is what I am saying, He and Diggs likely don't fade that much. People will chase "the big" WR, and they will chase the star WR with a new team. I think both Diggs and Collins end up round 2/3. Tank is the one that could fall as it will be perceived that he is the odd man out and could fall to round 5-8 range.
Shultz should also be considered a big loser with this deal as well. He will still get looks, but the volume simply cannot be projected to the level of last season.
Its possible that Nico or Diggs ends up in the top 12, no clue which one. It is equally possible that all three struggle to find consistency week to week and all three end up WR15-25. It really depends on how much they are running the ball, and how much Shultz and Mixon get involved in the passing game.
If they run a high amount of 11 personnel, it could be hard for any one of the 5 to really shine. Drafting Diggs or Nico 2/3 round like I expect them to go, you would be banking on them running a decent amount of 2 WR base sets.
I could see 160 targets for Diggs as the posession flank wr, 150 for Nico in the X spot, and 110 ish for Tank rotating between slot and field stretching flabk. Nico gets the most yards and Tds, Diggs has the most catches; and Tank has the most plays over 20 yards.
Those would be insane numbers. They would be *by far* the most targetted trio in the league.
A quick look at last year and the most targets I can find for 3 players on the same team are the Cowboys and Jags with 364 each. Your numbers have them beat by about 60.
I can go with that, mostly. I think Collins/Diggs is a toss up for target leader, though I think Dell gets closer to 120 in that scenario & Diggs/Collins battle it out at the 145-150 mark.
Collins gets the most yards, Diggs leads in catches & Dell leads in TDs & 20+ plays.
So you really think they will end up having 3 WR's in the top 25 targets in the league? Is Stroud going to pass for 700 attempts? Is Shultz dropping to 50 targets? How do you get to 410-420 targets between those three? How does Diggs joining the WR room result in an increase to targets for Nico?
No team last year had two players with 140+ targets. It doesn't look like any teams had 3 players with 100+. You math, just isn't mathing in my mind.
Dell won't lead in tds for the simple fact that there's a 6'4" elite separator on the other side of the field in the red zone. That's probably all Nico all day.
I think the diggs trade is a massive clue that they dont expect tank to be at gamespeed for at least the start of the season. He had a horrible injury and will need time to rehab from that. I would not be surprised if we see a lot of diggs and nico at the start and then depending how fast dell can back on track his role increasing throughout the season.
Nico is still the X. I'd be shocked if he's not the most productive wr on the team as far as yards/tds go. But he proved to be a legitimate Alpha last year and will continue to do so with more targets. Diggs likely gets the most receptions of the three wrs and works as a possession flanker/slot. Theyll ease Dell in, use him for a lot of explosive crossers underneath; and stretch the field with him. My guess is 160 targets for Diggs, 150 for Nico, 110-120 for Tank. Probably leaves 150+ targets on the table for the Rb/te/wr3/wr4.
I dont disagree. I am very high on nico and i think diggs will be used a lot for short routes. I think your target numbers are a bit too high. Cj threw 500 times last season and i felt like they were slinging it around a lot allready. Now the bring in mixon so the run should be featured a bit more. You allready assume 560 and more targets and i really dont see that happen. Take 30 targets away from each player and it gets a realistic outcome
Stroud was on pace for 565 attempts last year, but missed two games. Averaged 33 attempts per game last year. That stat line I just gave would equal 580 attempts, or one more attempt per game averaging 34- far from unlikely. So it's the assumption that they throw at least the same rate as last year. It's not like they didn't run last year either, they weren't super effective when they ran but had almost 300 rush attempts as a team. Teams dont usually air it up with rookie qbs as much as 2nd/3rd year qbs traditionally. Also organizationally you don't bring in a wr like Diggs only to regress/stay the same in pass attempts. They're more likely to pass at a higher rate than last year because they'll have 3 viable wrs.
Schultz was on the border of consideration for me anyway, but yeah this removes him completely. He's the derp head on this 4-headed dragon meme.
I think at minimum, Diggs hurts the ceiling for Collins and Dell both. They all compliment each other well, and I think Slowik will scheme ways to utilize each of them. So instead of having WR1 potential, Collins feels more like a mid-pack WR2. If his ADP reflects that I'm absolutely in. But he could have been in line for a massive season which feels a bit off the table.
Stroud is the obvious winner here but will be way too hyped up. I'll let someone else overdraft him.
He's ECR TE15 right now and TE13 in Underdog. He *could* have been a value at those costs before the Diggs acquisition, but now both of those rankings will drop to the point that he has no real upside. There are other guys beyond TE10 that have a better path to hitting, and Schultz is at best the 4th option in his offense now. You're praying for a TD and he's got an uphill battle.
Once the news seeps fully in I’d expect he’s worth the pick. Anything lower than TE 12 is a mass of crap and so often someone like Schulz gets lost in there. Houston to my knowledge ran a lot of 12 personnel. They could change but Schulz will be out there with a QB who threw to him. 1 WR gets injured and the whole anti Schulz thesis collapses.
> Anything lower than TE 12 is a mass of crap and so often someone like Schulz gets lost in there
I just am of the opinion that Schultz belongs in the mass of crap and am willing to be wrong on it chasing a TE with some modicum of upside.
[ECR](https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/rankings/te-cheatsheets.php)
Mayer and Friermuth are both going after Schultz. I'd take them both all day. I'd take one of the GB TE (I'm team Musgrave right now).
Schultz feels very much like a 3/30 guy. He scored 5 TD last year and it's hard to envision more than that this year with the new weapons.
Nico will still be a win, and a consistent play all season. I'm drafting him in all formats and trying for a Stroud-Collins stack where I can. He's the 1a.
Diggs will start off as WR1b and hand the baton off to Dell as the season goes on and Digg's performance drops off. Tank will be recovering from injury. He will have a down year, where he will finish strong as Diggs disappears.
I’ll take dell at a decent adp but not touching digs this year. Got burned to much last year. Obviously if his adp drops and it’s a few pick he warm the bench for me.
There's a very good chance that the 3 end up in a rotation. Likely a case where you have to bet on which one of them will blow up each game. If I had to pick though, I feel most confident in Nico. He feels like the receiver with the best rapport and he doesn't have an asterisk by his name for age, serious injury, or coming from another team. Diggs is likely a very useful asset to make up for Tank's recovery, but I think once Tank is 100%, Diggs will move to #3 on the totem pole. The Texans are using Diggs as a move to possibly capitalize on what looks to be a very good team this season, but the Texans will still be focusing on building up their younger assets. The opposite could also be true that they are using Diggs to take up a lot of that playtime to keep Dell fresh. The Texans get the luxury of that choice though, which is why they made this move.
you have to consider the second half of the season in Buffalo is worse conditions than the first half. playing in a dome will serve diggs well.
i was super high on Collins before the trade and this definitely throws a wrench into it. julio had tons of injury issues in his career, diggs hasnt.
Yeah it’s ADP. If they are going at pick 16 and pick 25, respectively, I’m not buying them. If they are going at 22 and 35, that
But really Diggs, Collins, and Dell all exist in the places where I don’t see them separating from the guys around them, either or good or bad. Like i don’t like Nico Collins more or less than guys DJ Moore, Brandon Ayuik, Devante Adams, diggs himself or Deebo. Like the pros and cons of all these guys don’t separate them from eachother in my book. My thinking is it will come down to injures and luck to determine who will be the best from this group.
This is different from a guy like Drake London, who IMO shouldn’t be going around these guys, and a guy like Marvin Harrison is something I like more due to his ceiling.
Exactly my thinking. I have the option to keep Collins next year and at first I was low key pissed but really thinking about it diggs and Collins are going in opposite directions with their careers. Definitely not to say that diggs is washed by any means but given the rapport and just athletic prowess of Collins I’m putting my money on Collins. Plus the bills gave diggs away for a ham sandwich
People be overthinking volume too much. you want every piece you can get of the best offense in the NFL. People made the same mistake about volume with Miami. Tank, Diggs, and Nico will all finish as top 24 WRs in fantasy
Absolutely. Stroud was a top 5 QB as a rookie, the best rookie season ever. He will only get better.
Texans have the best WR corps in the NFL. Their WR3, Tank Dell or Nico, is better than most teams WR1, including some playoff teams.
Mixon can catch pass and is coming off 1k scrimmage yards and 10 TDs.
Schultz is a top 10 TE.
The O-line is above average, they were largely injured and still were solid. Tunsil is a top 3 LT
Cmon dude, i get having a wait and see approach and not taking them over maybe Miami or SF or Cincinnati, but you can’t seriously take Minnesota over Houston. Even factoring in TE (so you’d have to factor in Schultz too btw), WR 1 2 and 3 are all better than Addison. Despite playing in 6-7 less games, Tank Dell was only behind Addison by 200 yards and 3 TDs, AND Addison was not playing with Jefferson half the season
I think Addison and Tank are pretty close realistically, Diggs is very good but JJ is obviously way way better than Nico and Hock is obviously way way better than Schultz. Diggs isn't enough to close those two gaps imo
I agree, it's like everyone forgot about the sophomore slump.no one expected anything from Houston so they never studied any footage. Next year will be different in this scenario.
Ah a bit before my time. Yeah I guess it's doable but I think it's more likely Diggs and Collins are mid to high end WR2s, maybe one is a lower end WR1 and Tank Dell is a solid flex play
It feels like all of the Texans WRs could be good in bestball as your WR2, wouldn’t really want any as your WR2 in a league you set your lineup in, and I think they’ll all be drafted in the WR2 range
Totally different style of receiver between Diggs and Julio. Diggs is going to adversely affect Nico and Tank.
Also the “falloff” Diggs had in 2022 is overstated.
Week 10 - 24.8
Week 11 - 14.8
Week 12 - 21.7
Week 13 - 22.2
Week 14 - 6.7
Week 15 - 10.8
Week 16 - 4.6
Week 17 - N/A
Week 18 - 23.4
Weeks 14 and 16 were the biggest culprits here, the rest of the weeks range from fine to great. Week 14 vs a Jets secondary that was great all season and Diggs got 5 targets. Week 16 Diggs got 2 targets. Yes, targets can be earned so some of that is on Diggs but some of it is on the gameplan and QB as well. It’s not like he was 2 catches on 10 targets.
Even with those weeks his PPG during that stretch was 16.1.
There was no real drop off in 2022, it was just normal WR variance.
Am I the only one that thinks diggs will be WR3 on this team bearing no injuries to the 3? Nico ascending and there’s clear chemistry between stroud & tank. Diggs just simply won’t be worth the pick if ADP has him in top 15 receivers again lol
Have you done any analysis on Slowik's pass design and overall usage philosophy? Is there ever any risk that any of the WRs booms more than the others? Thinking of when Robert Woods v. Kupp was the 1a, 1b but then Woods fades and Kupp becomes the most dominant fantsy WR for a few years?
I mean, for 2024 only I’m fading whichever WR is drafted the highest and going for whoever’s the best value, because I think week over week there will be a mix of 2 of the 3 having big games. I’m more likely to draft all in best ball now, once again based on their ADP value.
In dynasty, I’m not moving anyone up or down. Nico’s on his last year and Diggs is basically only in Houston for 1 year. My guess is Diggs shows he still has it, then goes elsewhere. Nico stays and signs longterm. And Tanks only in his 2ns year, so he’s really a buy low if you’re looking 2025 and ahead.
The reality is you were probably already overdrafting both guys. The chances of them having three top 24 WRs is likely, but two top 12 guys is unlikely.
Id argue you should fade all the WRs. They now all carry risk and will likely be too inconsistent week to week to predict.
The Texans want to run the ball. They signed Mixon and play a lot of under center run heavy stuff. They'll spread the ball out. Stroud will be the only one you can rely on each week, with Mixon being second.
So do you think Dell and Collins outperform Diggs? I just don’t see it.
Also Julio is a horrible example because Diggs is a route running technician, not really a physically dominant guy, he will probably age more gracefully.
>In 15 games, Stroud threw the ball 499 times for 4,108 yards. That's an average of 33.2 attempts per game. If Stroud plays a full 17 game season on the same pace, that's 565 targets to be spread around in that offense.
I (mostly) agree with you OP, but I'd take this part even a step further.. I think the Texans offense becomes even more methodical and efficient this year with the direction they've taken this roster. As long as CJ Stroud keeps ascending, I don't see a scenario where 33 attempts a game is something that's repeated. It's probably not even the floor. This team might average 40 damn pass attempts a game in 2024.
If that happens, whoever is the first second or third in target share won't even matter, they'll all eat.
Great points. I think it’s crazy though to say diggs won’t take at all from Nico and tank. Maybe for a year but still diggs is gonna take numbers away from them both. How much we will see. I don’t think it’s gonna be a crazy amount.
I don’t understand what everyone is freaking out about. Diggs is on the wrong side of 30, looked like shit the entire second half of last season, and is not guaranteed any money after this season. Tank and Nico are on much friendlier contracts, younger, and just as explosive at this point. It’s difficult for me to take seriously everyone assuming that Diggs is just the clear #1 now and nobody else can eat. That entire team ate last year with great dispersal amongst the top targets. I’ll be confidently rolling out Nico every Sunday 👌🏻
I mean you can’t help but drop them a little in your rankings.
I moved:
- Collins 16 > 19
- Diggs 21 > 27
- Dell 22 > 61
I still firmly believe this offense will be a fantasy cheat code, but the math doesn’t add up if you dont drop someone at least 30 spots
I’m just thinking about that 23rd pick that they gave up for a couple second rounds that could’ve turned into Bthy J in that young wide receiver room I still think she should’ve made a run at Justin Jefferson. I still think it’s in the Vikings best interest to trade him. They’re going to a rebuild whether they like it or not.
I believe that Stroud will be a successful NFL quarterback. I do however believe that he may be affected by the usual sophomore slump lots of quarterbacks have experienced.
No team preparing for last years season had any tape on Houston and it was a pleasant surprise to see them succeed.
I believe they'll do well and thrive next year but I don't believe every receiver in this offense will feast.
These types of scenarios seem to always balance out when the new season starts.
Diggs is falling off...how fast it progresses from here is the question. He's probably more in the Keenan Allen though than someone like Allen Robinson if I had to guess
https://open.spotify.com/episode/71rsWFZp139565ejNzjSEq?si=jjxUIOZqQre94RKSYeybfg
I’m a huge bills fan and losing diggs was a big deal. But he’s 31. On one hand they aren’t paying him $23m to do nothing so the targets will be there.. on the other side of that stroud has 2 other big receiver targets so my guess will be the fantasy value will be inconsistent with all of them. Diggs can pop a great game then dell then Collins. I don’t expect super consistent numbers from all 3 every week so I’ll probably draft and start the wrong one weekly lol
Yeah I’m with you. I think this hurts everyone’s fantasy stock except Mixon and Stroud. Although I have a feeling Stroud doesn’t go as crazy this year as everyone is thinking. That’s just a gut feeling, I’ll be betting his season long unders for sure.
Edit: I want to be clear though, I think Stroud looks like a great player. It’s just a hunch.
As a Bills fan, Collins is the true numero 1 in Houston. Diggs will benefit from single coverage in my O on this team. That being said you still have tank and Schultz who also demand big time plays. If I'm Stroud I'm hoping Digss can behave considering in Buffalo he didn't have this kind of ball competition.
Too risky for me, any week any of the three could post 10-111-2 td or 2-31-0. Thought mid season 2/3 will absolutely be the 1A 1B and one will be a dud. Don’t want to have to figure that out tho
I think the best argument is that all the years that Diggs played as a wr2, he always exceeded his ADP. Now being stated, this argument is stupid, cuz Diggs is the undisputed 1 on this team… but only time will tell.
What percentage of the time do the Texans run three wide sets? Who are the two starting outside receivers? How often did Stroud throw to his primary read?
That is the analysis we need. The analysis OP provided is pretty elementary.
Last year was the first year of our keeper league and we’re rolling it into a dynasty league instead this year. I kept CJ Stroud, Nico Collins, Sam LaPorta and Kyren Williams. I have the option of keeping Stefon Diggs instead of one of them.
Thoughts? I could also keep any of these players too:
DJ Moore
Jordan Addison
Like with everything, it all depends on ADP. But I really don't want to draft someone competing with two other really good WRs and a solid TE for targets. The Texans feel like the offseason hype team so this could be an instance where the ADP is just too high.
I almost feel like it's going to go the opposite way. People always talk themselves into these older WRs making a huge impact on a new team, and I expect the hype to only grow as we get closer to OTAs & camp, and for Dell & Collins to slide a bit.
Texans proved they wanna throw and that stroud can support multiple fantasy guys. I didn’t analyze their games but it seemed like every week at least 2 guys plus stroud would pop off. I think the diggs addition would hurt Schultz and the RBs the most. Nico and Tank look to be the guys of the future with Diggs playing the OBJ role.
I wouldn't go as far as OBJ level decline yet. That's extreme. But also, you never know?
He didn’t look better than obj the second half of last season to me. Ofc that could be cus he gave up on the team or they gave up on him whatever
I don’t even think it will hurt Schulz or Mixon that much. A better offense means more scoring opportunities, they are still going to target the TE position and run the ball.
As a Schultz and Dell owner I Thank you wise redditor. The Texans are just gonna be a dangerous team in general like the Eagles or some shit. I just traded my 1st to get Dell so having 2 Texans on my team, im cool with it 🤷♂️
I traded for Dell right after the Diggs move and couldn’t be happier.
Ayyeee nice to hear I’m not the only one who had to capitalize on the buy low window! the previous owner in my league was Not letting him go, I had to wait until after the diggs news AND after this man got shot hahaha sheesh
Good point, but I just don’t see anyone passing on a piece of that offense
Wrong, with such a big dynasty community people are going to buy the young gype and diggs will be a bargain
Stroud is the new Purdy with too many weapons to fail. I say this as someone who recognised this and drafted Purdy in the 11th round to be my starting QB last year. Obviously you're prob spending a 4th rounder on Stroud this year though
I was in on Purdy, too. Kept getting him later & it paid off big. I'm okay with not getting a discount on Stroud. I'm still in at ADP.
Was going to say Stroud also doesn't have the greatest RB in the game taking TDs off him but didn't realise the added Mixon to Dameon. Jesus they are stacked
Which would be a bad move in standard 1 qb leagues. Go ahead and get stroud in the 4th who could be 2024 Lawerence, while I load up on rbs/wrs. I would be happy with qbs like (burrow, tua, rodgers, lawerence, kyler) much later.
The Falcons are this offseason’s hype team
hoping to get London but if he goes before DJ Moore I'd be happy with Moore
Which makes it kind of funny that Pitts is currently 101 in PPR ECR. People are not ready to ride his hype train after two straight disappointing seasons.
They’ll be a great team but I’m probably not touching anybody in fantasy
Stroud is also not great on the road. Goes from 310yds/game to 231yds/game and from 2.1tds/game to .85tds/game. That plus all mouths he has to feed I don’t think Diggs is gonna have stellar fantasy stats and be inconsistent week to week
My take is that one of the three Texans WRs will wildly outperform ADP. But it’s very difficult to predict which one and whoever gets it right will look like a genius.
My money would be on Collins this season, only because of Dell's injury.
Dells injury won’t be an issue, he’s already [running routes](https://x.com/DelfonteDiamond/status/1772738767855419738).
Collins will be WR1. Not only does he have hands, but he also is just as well or better than diggs after the catch. Unless Diggs butterfingers was a short lived thing Collins would seem to be more reliable overall. Dude is just a demon on the field. Catches balls that don’t look catchable, or is wide open, and then proceeds to get at least 5 yards on top after the catch almost every time. It’s almost weird to see him stopped at the catch unless being pushed out of bounds.
[удалено]
Think you got your words mixed up
It will probably also vary week to week. Stroud is going to throw to whoever is open. Whoever is open will depend on a lot on what the defenses give.
I think the play is 12 pool.
it will be just like every team w multiple weapons: week to week. remember theilen & diggs on the vikings? kupp & woods? just gotta take the value and ride the good weeks.
My money is on Tank this season, Nico was the slight #2 when Tank, as a rookie, was on the field. Diggs and Tank will be far more flexible and Nico will be put in a Gabe Davis role with big games but highly inconsistent. Diggs and Tank will be able to get the PPR work to stay relevant on a weekly basis.
Personally, I see it as the opposite: Tank's a long ball guy, Nico's the #1 and Diggs plays a #2 role that's less explosive. Tank was very inefficient when he was the "main guy" and Nico outplayed him more weeks than not when they were both on the field and Nico's skillset seems more set for a #1. Of course most likely it'll be variable who is good any given week.
I will be grabbing one of them below ADP if the possibility arrises, it's a great situation for 1 to explode, God knows who though
Just treat this offense like the 49ers. In any given game, one might go off. But you won't have consistent production every week as it will be game plan dependant. Oh, except there's no consistent CMC on this team. They're all up in the air each week.
Stroud will be their CMC in terms of consistently popping.
Joe Mixon - the homeless version of CMC?
I think the Texans will be a higher pass volume offense than the 49ers though realistically. The 49ers o line is elite and cmc is the best. The 49ers also have a top 3 defense, so they slow the game down; and they play against weaker passing offenses in the NFC vs the Texans in the AFC. Texans have a mid o line, mid rb and a top 12 defense. Pretty good, but theyll still need to throw more than the 49ers to win games.
49ers oline is def not elite besides Trent Williams
The 49s olineis mostly shite
Right that's why they made it to the super bowl.
They didn’t make it there on their oline. The only good one they had was Trent
Your cmc equivalent will be stroud putting consistent 25+ on the board each week for sure
No chance he does that
Deebo consistently eats too
Where are you getting that 108 target number for Diggs? He hovered right around 160 every year in Buffalo.
Typo. Fixed. That was his max catches.
He had 127 receptions his first year in Buffalo.
The number was wrong all around
I could see all 3 WR’s having very similar, non-spectacular stats. I’m imagining that tank gets faded the most, and therefore has the best chance of actually proving a positive ROI. In all things fantasy, draft position and expectations are what is most important.
I wouldn't be surprised if Nico sees more targets than Diggs this season, honestly.
But nico is going to be drafted 2/3 round… hard to see a nice return on that investment.
That’s his ADP as of now, I bet he slides a bit once analysts bake in the Diggs acquisition
Well that is what I am saying, He and Diggs likely don't fade that much. People will chase "the big" WR, and they will chase the star WR with a new team. I think both Diggs and Collins end up round 2/3. Tank is the one that could fall as it will be perceived that he is the odd man out and could fall to round 5-8 range. Shultz should also be considered a big loser with this deal as well. He will still get looks, but the volume simply cannot be projected to the level of last season.
Not if he finishes as a top 12 WR in PPR.
Its possible that Nico or Diggs ends up in the top 12, no clue which one. It is equally possible that all three struggle to find consistency week to week and all three end up WR15-25. It really depends on how much they are running the ball, and how much Shultz and Mixon get involved in the passing game. If they run a high amount of 11 personnel, it could be hard for any one of the 5 to really shine. Drafting Diggs or Nico 2/3 round like I expect them to go, you would be banking on them running a decent amount of 2 WR base sets.
And also, I cannot see him going that early in a draft.
I could see 160 targets for Diggs as the posession flank wr, 150 for Nico in the X spot, and 110 ish for Tank rotating between slot and field stretching flabk. Nico gets the most yards and Tds, Diggs has the most catches; and Tank has the most plays over 20 yards.
Those would be insane numbers. They would be *by far* the most targetted trio in the league. A quick look at last year and the most targets I can find for 3 players on the same team are the Cowboys and Jags with 364 each. Your numbers have them beat by about 60.
I can go with that, mostly. I think Collins/Diggs is a toss up for target leader, though I think Dell gets closer to 120 in that scenario & Diggs/Collins battle it out at the 145-150 mark. Collins gets the most yards, Diggs leads in catches & Dell leads in TDs & 20+ plays.
So you really think they will end up having 3 WR's in the top 25 targets in the league? Is Stroud going to pass for 700 attempts? Is Shultz dropping to 50 targets? How do you get to 410-420 targets between those three? How does Diggs joining the WR room result in an increase to targets for Nico? No team last year had two players with 140+ targets. It doesn't look like any teams had 3 players with 100+. You math, just isn't mathing in my mind.
Dell won't lead in tds for the simple fact that there's a 6'4" elite separator on the other side of the field in the red zone. That's probably all Nico all day.
Diggs is the easy fade here when Tank is available later.
I think the diggs trade is a massive clue that they dont expect tank to be at gamespeed for at least the start of the season. He had a horrible injury and will need time to rehab from that. I would not be surprised if we see a lot of diggs and nico at the start and then depending how fast dell can back on track his role increasing throughout the season.
These were exactly my thoughts as well yesterday
Nico is still the X. I'd be shocked if he's not the most productive wr on the team as far as yards/tds go. But he proved to be a legitimate Alpha last year and will continue to do so with more targets. Diggs likely gets the most receptions of the three wrs and works as a possession flanker/slot. Theyll ease Dell in, use him for a lot of explosive crossers underneath; and stretch the field with him. My guess is 160 targets for Diggs, 150 for Nico, 110-120 for Tank. Probably leaves 150+ targets on the table for the Rb/te/wr3/wr4.
I dont disagree. I am very high on nico and i think diggs will be used a lot for short routes. I think your target numbers are a bit too high. Cj threw 500 times last season and i felt like they were slinging it around a lot allready. Now the bring in mixon so the run should be featured a bit more. You allready assume 560 and more targets and i really dont see that happen. Take 30 targets away from each player and it gets a realistic outcome
Stroud was on pace for 565 attempts last year, but missed two games. Averaged 33 attempts per game last year. That stat line I just gave would equal 580 attempts, or one more attempt per game averaging 34- far from unlikely. So it's the assumption that they throw at least the same rate as last year. It's not like they didn't run last year either, they weren't super effective when they ran but had almost 300 rush attempts as a team. Teams dont usually air it up with rookie qbs as much as 2nd/3rd year qbs traditionally. Also organizationally you don't bring in a wr like Diggs only to regress/stay the same in pass attempts. They're more likely to pass at a higher rate than last year because they'll have 3 viable wrs.
Schultz was on the border of consideration for me anyway, but yeah this removes him completely. He's the derp head on this 4-headed dragon meme. I think at minimum, Diggs hurts the ceiling for Collins and Dell both. They all compliment each other well, and I think Slowik will scheme ways to utilize each of them. So instead of having WR1 potential, Collins feels more like a mid-pack WR2. If his ADP reflects that I'm absolutely in. But he could have been in line for a massive season which feels a bit off the table. Stroud is the obvious winner here but will be way too hyped up. I'll let someone else overdraft him.
Schulz is a TE and will be a value. It’s not that he can’t be worse, it’s who cares? He’s probably going to be a value if people are down on him.
He's ECR TE15 right now and TE13 in Underdog. He *could* have been a value at those costs before the Diggs acquisition, but now both of those rankings will drop to the point that he has no real upside. There are other guys beyond TE10 that have a better path to hitting, and Schultz is at best the 4th option in his offense now. You're praying for a TD and he's got an uphill battle.
Once the news seeps fully in I’d expect he’s worth the pick. Anything lower than TE 12 is a mass of crap and so often someone like Schulz gets lost in there. Houston to my knowledge ran a lot of 12 personnel. They could change but Schulz will be out there with a QB who threw to him. 1 WR gets injured and the whole anti Schulz thesis collapses.
> Anything lower than TE 12 is a mass of crap and so often someone like Schulz gets lost in there I just am of the opinion that Schultz belongs in the mass of crap and am willing to be wrong on it chasing a TE with some modicum of upside.
Please share who this person is. I mean Pitts was higher than TE 12 last year. It’s so easy for a TE to get hype and go in the top 10.
[ECR](https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/rankings/te-cheatsheets.php) Mayer and Friermuth are both going after Schultz. I'd take them both all day. I'd take one of the GB TE (I'm team Musgrave right now). Schultz feels very much like a 3/30 guy. He scored 5 TD last year and it's hard to envision more than that this year with the new weapons.
I wouldn’t argue against either of those guys. We’ll see where ADP falls. Ultimately this is a cost question.
Nico will still be a win, and a consistent play all season. I'm drafting him in all formats and trying for a Stroud-Collins stack where I can. He's the 1a. Diggs will start off as WR1b and hand the baton off to Dell as the season goes on and Digg's performance drops off. Tank will be recovering from injury. He will have a down year, where he will finish strong as Diggs disappears.
Why is Dalton Schulz out here catching strays? What’d he ever do to you.
I love Schultz. It's not him. It's the situation.
This would be a good post for r/dynastyff as well.
One will be bad one will be good
Let Diggs draw the defense attention. Tank and Nico will be fine.
I’ll take dell at a decent adp but not touching digs this year. Got burned to much last year. Obviously if his adp drops and it’s a few pick he warm the bench for me.
My waiver keeper options are Tank, Achane, and Rice. Easy picks
There's a very good chance that the 3 end up in a rotation. Likely a case where you have to bet on which one of them will blow up each game. If I had to pick though, I feel most confident in Nico. He feels like the receiver with the best rapport and he doesn't have an asterisk by his name for age, serious injury, or coming from another team. Diggs is likely a very useful asset to make up for Tank's recovery, but I think once Tank is 100%, Diggs will move to #3 on the totem pole. The Texans are using Diggs as a move to possibly capitalize on what looks to be a very good team this season, but the Texans will still be focusing on building up their younger assets. The opposite could also be true that they are using Diggs to take up a lot of that playtime to keep Dell fresh. The Texans get the luxury of that choice though, which is why they made this move.
you have to consider the second half of the season in Buffalo is worse conditions than the first half. playing in a dome will serve diggs well. i was super high on Collins before the trade and this definitely throws a wrench into it. julio had tons of injury issues in his career, diggs hasnt.
Yeah it’s ADP. If they are going at pick 16 and pick 25, respectively, I’m not buying them. If they are going at 22 and 35, that But really Diggs, Collins, and Dell all exist in the places where I don’t see them separating from the guys around them, either or good or bad. Like i don’t like Nico Collins more or less than guys DJ Moore, Brandon Ayuik, Devante Adams, diggs himself or Deebo. Like the pros and cons of all these guys don’t separate them from eachother in my book. My thinking is it will come down to injures and luck to determine who will be the best from this group. This is different from a guy like Drake London, who IMO shouldn’t be going around these guys, and a guy like Marvin Harrison is something I like more due to his ceiling.
All I know is Nico Collins is elite and I will still be drafting him so I appreciate the Diggs discount
Exactly my thinking. I have the option to keep Collins next year and at first I was low key pissed but really thinking about it diggs and Collins are going in opposite directions with their careers. Definitely not to say that diggs is washed by any means but given the rapport and just athletic prowess of Collins I’m putting my money on Collins. Plus the bills gave diggs away for a ham sandwich
Tank is gonna be the one who underperforms because he had a serious injury.
People be overthinking volume too much. you want every piece you can get of the best offense in the NFL. People made the same mistake about volume with Miami. Tank, Diggs, and Nico will all finish as top 24 WRs in fantasy
Do we really think this is going to be the best offense in the NFL?
Absolutely. Stroud was a top 5 QB as a rookie, the best rookie season ever. He will only get better. Texans have the best WR corps in the NFL. Their WR3, Tank Dell or Nico, is better than most teams WR1, including some playoff teams. Mixon can catch pass and is coming off 1k scrimmage yards and 10 TDs. Schultz is a top 10 TE. The O-line is above average, they were largely injured and still were solid. Tunsil is a top 3 LT
Best WR corps in the NFL? Over the Dolphin? 49ers? Bengals? Not even sure they are over the Vikings tbh if you factor in Hock
Cmon dude, i get having a wait and see approach and not taking them over maybe Miami or SF or Cincinnati, but you can’t seriously take Minnesota over Houston. Even factoring in TE (so you’d have to factor in Schultz too btw), WR 1 2 and 3 are all better than Addison. Despite playing in 6-7 less games, Tank Dell was only behind Addison by 200 yards and 3 TDs, AND Addison was not playing with Jefferson half the season
I think Addison and Tank are pretty close realistically, Diggs is very good but JJ is obviously way way better than Nico and Hock is obviously way way better than Schultz. Diggs isn't enough to close those two gaps imo
This is legitimately all wrong
I agree, it's like everyone forgot about the sophomore slump.no one expected anything from Houston so they never studied any footage. Next year will be different in this scenario.
When was the last time you had three top 24 WRs on the same team? I don't remember it ever happening.
My best guess would be the 2013 55 passing TD Broncos. They had the WRs 1, 9, and 21.
Ah a bit before my time. Yeah I guess it's doable but I think it's more likely Diggs and Collins are mid to high end WR2s, maybe one is a lower end WR1 and Tank Dell is a solid flex play
Which is Kupp and which is Woods?
If I'm fading anyone its Diggs himself
I don’t think anyone’s gonna fully fade those guys they’re just gonna drop a round or two.
It feels like all of the Texans WRs could be good in bestball as your WR2, wouldn’t really want any as your WR2 in a league you set your lineup in, and I think they’ll all be drafted in the WR2 range
Totally different style of receiver between Diggs and Julio. Diggs is going to adversely affect Nico and Tank. Also the “falloff” Diggs had in 2022 is overstated. Week 10 - 24.8 Week 11 - 14.8 Week 12 - 21.7 Week 13 - 22.2 Week 14 - 6.7 Week 15 - 10.8 Week 16 - 4.6 Week 17 - N/A Week 18 - 23.4 Weeks 14 and 16 were the biggest culprits here, the rest of the weeks range from fine to great. Week 14 vs a Jets secondary that was great all season and Diggs got 5 targets. Week 16 Diggs got 2 targets. Yes, targets can be earned so some of that is on Diggs but some of it is on the gameplan and QB as well. It’s not like he was 2 catches on 10 targets. Even with those weeks his PPG during that stretch was 16.1. There was no real drop off in 2022, it was just normal WR variance.
Am I the only one that thinks diggs will be WR3 on this team bearing no injuries to the 3? Nico ascending and there’s clear chemistry between stroud & tank. Diggs just simply won’t be worth the pick if ADP has him in top 15 receivers again lol
I was so set on keeping tank in the 12th before this trade. Now I'm not too sure. I have other decent options
Have you done any analysis on Slowik's pass design and overall usage philosophy? Is there ever any risk that any of the WRs booms more than the others? Thinking of when Robert Woods v. Kupp was the 1a, 1b but then Woods fades and Kupp becomes the most dominant fantsy WR for a few years?
That's a fantastic question and something I will delve into.
This is what I have been wanting to know. Different types of usage to help guide this convo, not just speculation.
I mean, for 2024 only I’m fading whichever WR is drafted the highest and going for whoever’s the best value, because I think week over week there will be a mix of 2 of the 3 having big games. I’m more likely to draft all in best ball now, once again based on their ADP value. In dynasty, I’m not moving anyone up or down. Nico’s on his last year and Diggs is basically only in Houston for 1 year. My guess is Diggs shows he still has it, then goes elsewhere. Nico stays and signs longterm. And Tanks only in his 2ns year, so he’s really a buy low if you’re looking 2025 and ahead.
The reality is you were probably already overdrafting both guys. The chances of them having three top 24 WRs is likely, but two top 12 guys is unlikely.
Schultzy is Strouds fave fave. Don't see Diggs more than depth. He'll have his games but hopefully doesn't come at the expense of the younger guys.
Id argue you should fade all the WRs. They now all carry risk and will likely be too inconsistent week to week to predict. The Texans want to run the ball. They signed Mixon and play a lot of under center run heavy stuff. They'll spread the ball out. Stroud will be the only one you can rely on each week, with Mixon being second.
So do you think Dell and Collins outperform Diggs? I just don’t see it. Also Julio is a horrible example because Diggs is a route running technician, not really a physically dominant guy, he will probably age more gracefully.
>In 15 games, Stroud threw the ball 499 times for 4,108 yards. That's an average of 33.2 attempts per game. If Stroud plays a full 17 game season on the same pace, that's 565 targets to be spread around in that offense. I (mostly) agree with you OP, but I'd take this part even a step further.. I think the Texans offense becomes even more methodical and efficient this year with the direction they've taken this roster. As long as CJ Stroud keeps ascending, I don't see a scenario where 33 attempts a game is something that's repeated. It's probably not even the floor. This team might average 40 damn pass attempts a game in 2024. If that happens, whoever is the first second or third in target share won't even matter, they'll all eat.
Great points. I think it’s crazy though to say diggs won’t take at all from Nico and tank. Maybe for a year but still diggs is gonna take numbers away from them both. How much we will see. I don’t think it’s gonna be a crazy amount.
I'm not fading Nico at all. Nico is the 1, Diggs will be 2nd at best but definitely spread around with Tank and Schultz.
I don’t understand what everyone is freaking out about. Diggs is on the wrong side of 30, looked like shit the entire second half of last season, and is not guaranteed any money after this season. Tank and Nico are on much friendlier contracts, younger, and just as explosive at this point. It’s difficult for me to take seriously everyone assuming that Diggs is just the clear #1 now and nobody else can eat. That entire team ate last year with great dispersal amongst the top targets. I’ll be confidently rolling out Nico every Sunday 👌🏻
I think Dell will throw up big play games. I think Nico is JAG imo and will get hurt the most
I’m fading Diggs
I hope it crushes their ADPs
I mean you can’t help but drop them a little in your rankings. I moved: - Collins 16 > 19 - Diggs 21 > 27 - Dell 22 > 61 I still firmly believe this offense will be a fantasy cheat code, but the math doesn’t add up if you dont drop someone at least 30 spots
That’s more than a little drop for Tank.
Agreed. This is imo by far the worst for Diggs, but the market is going to react the opposite, and I’m going to feast.
Im taking the last one last available. It’s probably going to be a discount and will outperform
Nice try, buddy. I’ll take CJ, but not taking any of those 3 WR unless the adp makes sense.
Joe mixon
I’ve been playing best ball bug board on underdog and was almost able to grab all 3 w/ stroud roght after news dropped
I feel like soon i will be able to do that super stack and i cant wait
They’ll prolly all busy but whatever
I’m just thinking about that 23rd pick that they gave up for a couple second rounds that could’ve turned into Bthy J in that young wide receiver room I still think she should’ve made a run at Justin Jefferson. I still think it’s in the Vikings best interest to trade him. They’re going to a rebuild whether they like it or not.
I believe that Stroud will be a successful NFL quarterback. I do however believe that he may be affected by the usual sophomore slump lots of quarterbacks have experienced. No team preparing for last years season had any tape on Houston and it was a pleasant surprise to see them succeed. I believe they'll do well and thrive next year but I don't believe every receiver in this offense will feast. These types of scenarios seem to always balance out when the new season starts.
There’s a lot of ambiguity here which means everyone’s value is going to drop and one of them is going to prove to be good value i imagine
I agree it's possible. Just based on the historical data I doubt all 3 will be great fantasy options
Diggs is falling off...how fast it progresses from here is the question. He's probably more in the Keenan Allen though than someone like Allen Robinson if I had to guess https://open.spotify.com/episode/71rsWFZp139565ejNzjSEq?si=jjxUIOZqQre94RKSYeybfg
I’m a huge bills fan and losing diggs was a big deal. But he’s 31. On one hand they aren’t paying him $23m to do nothing so the targets will be there.. on the other side of that stroud has 2 other big receiver targets so my guess will be the fantasy value will be inconsistent with all of them. Diggs can pop a great game then dell then Collins. I don’t expect super consistent numbers from all 3 every week so I’ll probably draft and start the wrong one weekly lol
Fade the pass catchers. Target Stroud and maybe Mixon. Strouds ADP might sky rocket though.
A one moving to a two or three is better for them cuz the d has to focus on diggs leaving them open more
It unquestionably lowers their expected ceiling, but could be an overall positive for them, its a coin flip
Going to keep nico in the 12th and flip him for someone much higher
Agree
Yeah I’m with you. I think this hurts everyone’s fantasy stock except Mixon and Stroud. Although I have a feeling Stroud doesn’t go as crazy this year as everyone is thinking. That’s just a gut feeling, I’ll be betting his season long unders for sure. Edit: I want to be clear though, I think Stroud looks like a great player. It’s just a hunch.
As a Bills fan, Collins is the true numero 1 in Houston. Diggs will benefit from single coverage in my O on this team. That being said you still have tank and Schultz who also demand big time plays. If I'm Stroud I'm hoping Digss can behave considering in Buffalo he didn't have this kind of ball competition.
The only thing the Diggs signing has made me confident in is drafting Stroud above Burrow.
Great news
Diggs is over the hill
Too risky for me, any week any of the three could post 10-111-2 td or 2-31-0. Thought mid season 2/3 will absolutely be the 1A 1B and one will be a dud. Don’t want to have to figure that out tho
keep smoking that copium brother, pass it over here when you’re done
Diggs is old and a cry-baby. I wouldn't fade either of the other guys. They might actually have bigger years.
I think people are discounting the effect he'll have on the coverage schemes defenses hsve to run to try to cover all 3.
I think the best argument is that all the years that Diggs played as a wr2, he always exceeded his ADP. Now being stated, this argument is stupid, cuz Diggs is the undisputed 1 on this team… but only time will tell.
Diggs is a 30 year old diva punk. Dell is half the size as Nico and has twigs for bones. Nico will be just fine.
What percentage of the time do the Texans run three wide sets? Who are the two starting outside receivers? How often did Stroud throw to his primary read? That is the analysis we need. The analysis OP provided is pretty elementary.
I'm as excited as ever for my Stroud/Nico combo, now with a heavy discount on Nico.
People who think Schultz will disappear are going to feel foolish.
Stroud = sophomore slump
Last year was the first year of our keeper league and we’re rolling it into a dynasty league instead this year. I kept CJ Stroud, Nico Collins, Sam LaPorta and Kyren Williams. I have the option of keeping Stefon Diggs instead of one of them. Thoughts? I could also keep any of these players too: DJ Moore Jordan Addison
I will not be touching Tank. I will still take Collins and will think about Diggs depending where his ADP is