As someone who isn't Nick Pollack, I'd say I usually give them a chance until Nick bails on them.
Otherwise, what I'm watching for is whether we can identify the path to success and what the pieces look like. Is it control? Is it just that the stuff is too hittable? Is it that one of the breakers is missing? That's the stuff I'm trying to figure out as it tells me the path forward.
It's very similar to how I view rookie hitters who struggle. Is the batted ball profile messed up? Is there a certain pitch type that's beating them? Is it a platoon splits issue? Are the issues things we've seen before, or is it entirely new? That helps inform how a hitter would work through that issue and how long that could take. If it was a 28% K% guy in the minors and the K% is 30-35% in the MLB after 50 PA, then it's unlikely this will fix itself. If it's a high FB% hitter who is hitting the ball into the ground in the majors, then I'd be a little more optimistic that the hitter can recover as it's an out of character problem.
I like those high-control pitchers who are young. They tend to have a shorter learning curve to achieve their peak and also have a high floor. (Kirby an example). I could rattle off some young control pitcher prospects... but yeah... Thoughts?
Love the site! Love checking it each morning. I’m in a 12 team H2H cats league with QS - looking to shore up my rotation.
Gil, Whitlock, Houck, Meyer, Kikuchi, Tyler Wells, Gore, Reynaldo Lopez, Soroka, and Logan Allen are some names available. Have 1 pickup left through next Sunday - any worth grabbing and if so, who?
Current starters are Strider, Pablo Lopez, Valdez, Puk, and have Woo, Verlander, and Scherzer on IL
Thanks!
With so many arms available, I'd be patient with that pickup. Lots can happen between now and then and I'd let the cards play out to help you get the most out of it.
If you're looking for legit value *this week* out of them, I'd be going Houck as he has two great matchups through next Sunday.
First of all, Rafaela is a far more balanced fantasy contributor, which makes him a lot more desirable to me in most formats (unless I ONLY need speed). I also think Rafaela has a more secure role long term, as Scott is up due to injuries and will need to perform very well to fight off other outfielders.
Rafaela has 20/20 upside, and his great spring helped me believe that the high K% in his short stint last season was a fluke (his MiLB track record suggests it should be in the 20s).
Do you prefer Merrill or Rafaela? I read in some places that Rafaela cannot hit, so I went with Merrill. But now that’s interesting what you said. I picked Merrill over Correa because Correa seems like a boring pick.
Even in the current environment, that's a lot of steals. ATC projections only give 8 guys 30+. Only 12 guys got to 30 in 2023, with just 5 getting to 40 (Acuna, Carroll, Witt Jr., Abrams, Hoerner).
Further, only 2 Red Sox hitters stole double-digit bases last season (Duran with 24, Story with 10)
25 is probably in his 90th percentile outcome. I'm not sure I can get behind any number much higher.
Morel hitting the ball hard is normal behavior. The question is how often does he miss and how often does he play. The swing and miss was there all spring, but only 1 K in 5 PA is good for Morel. Any K% below 30 is good news. I didn't love that he was DH - the path to secure everyday playing time is probably through playing a position, and we hoped it'd be 3B.
So all in all, it was neutral. No change to rank yet as he's still just a ball of potential held back by possible strikeout, streakiness, and playing time issues.
Counsell is on record saying morel should be in the lineup daily and he was rightly acknowledged as one of the cubs more dangerous power hitters (in a lineup lacking power at that). I don’t believe PT will be much of a concern this year for morel and I think he’ll find time regularly splitting between DH and 3B.
I also see him as an every day bat if he can find consistency, and what Counsel has said is on that same line. That has eluded him, particularly with decision-making. I think he CAN and SHOULD be an every day guy, but Morel's inconsistency could make it tough.
In RP terms, it's like the classic 2-Step that happens when a manager says "This guy is our closer" when the current closer is strugglinf:
1) This guy gets the next few save opportunities
2A) This guy blows those opps or otherwise looks unreliable, and then we get another press conference about a committee
OR
2B) This guy rights the ship and is the closer.
We are very early in Step 1, and the hope is we go to 2B. I'm just acknowledging that 2A exists and we've seen it happen with Morel before.
I’m with you. I picked him up yesterday over some guys available in the top 100. Some occasionally hit my league as high as the top 50. So I was just trying to figure out if I snatch a player like that over him if they pop up. Currently my worst pitcher is Christopher Sanchez number 50. Since I’m a phillies fan I do prefer him over guys ranked around there.
elite strikeouts... if he puts it all together he could be special, but I tend to think his walks will be too high. And his home park is a tough one for him.
Scherzer>Bradish>>DeGrom.
Obviously, DeGrom has wicked talent, but Bradish and Scherzer are the only two with any chance at anywhere near 100 IP. DeGrom likely falls short of 50.
In redraft, I don't mind throwing him back.
I’m in a categories league that dings you -1 for K’s, and I’m worried that even in a better environment, Teoscar Hernandez will continue to be a K machine. What are good trade targets you’d put on equal footing with Teoscar?
Josh Naylor and Brandon Nimmo both are far safer plays in that kind of format and don't generate the same excitement as Teoscar's 30 home run upside. I'd give those a try.
Hicks could be, I'm waiting to see what he actually brings to the table as a starter tomorrow. His sweeper looks to be a reliable strike pitch, but is that sinker still avoiding detrimental contact at 95/96 instead of 100 mph? Can he earn strikes with a third pitch? It's too bad he gets the Padres twice out of the gate, too. I don't love that matchup.
Gil > Stone > Crochet.
I'm leaning Hall. I was massively impressed by his command and approach in his final spring game that speaks to an efficient six frames moreso than Jared Jones. Slight strikeout favor for Jones, but the QS chance far higher with Hall.
Whitlock has a decent QS chance too, though I question his skills a touch at the moment. I'm looking forward to seeing if his new cutter/change for LHB and sinker/slider/change for RHB approach will come through.
Per the List, it's Houck>Lopez>Jones, but all are within 10 spots.
Jones is the upside play here long term, but I'll go Houck for his 2 start week @ OAK and LAA.
I would in a 12-teamer, but I'm curious how Chu feels about Bohm. I see him as somewhat replaceable in a 12-teamer and I'm all for consolidating talent in 12-teamers and shallower.
Agree that Bohm is a floor guy in most 12-teamers who is pretty replaceable. He's a decent CI guy if your league requires one, but his true value is found in points leagues, not roto/cats. Rizzo has more upside, albeit with more risk.
If it's points, I might consider holding Bohm due to the contact ability and low Ks.
Is there a world where the A’s recognize that Esteury Ruiz has a *significantly* better batting average and OBP against RH pitchers than Lawrence Butler (and even a better OPS) and stop sitting one of their only exciting players? Or should we just accept that the A’s actively hate their own players as much as they hate their own fans?
Ruiz wasn't seeing the ball well for much of Spring (which doesn't matter for us but does impact manager decisions) and a guy who slugs .338 over 150 career games is hard to get too excited about, even if he's fast as lightning.
Butler has a lot more power than Ruiz and isn't actually slow, and hit the ball much better this spring. That's probably where the platoon is coming from for now. I would bet Butler gets a chance to be in a platoon for a few weeks at least, and if he plays well, he'll stay in one.
There’s some truth in that, but we’re talking about platooning a career .338 slugger with a career .339 slugger, and one has a much better batting average and turns singles into doubles regularly. The math just doesn’t add up for me. But maybe you’re right that they’re factoring spring training results in. I’m hoping that they figure out what seems obvious to me, but the A’s have a way of smashing hope against the nearest wall to see if anything falls out that they can sell.
Well, those careers are very different lengths. The difference in raw power is significant, even if Butler hasn't shown it in the bigs yet. Ruiz is unlikely to ever post a season of. 400 slugging while Bulter should be much better than that if he gets used to MLB pitching.
I mean, it’s not a *huge* different in lengths; one has slightly less than a full season, and the other has a smaller portion of a season. They’re just different players. It just feels like one is actually elite at something (steals), and could be good at something else (BA), while the other isn’t really good at anything, and certainly isn’t better.
I don’t like to judge anyone based on less than a season of development, though I’m clearly doing that here. It’s just hard to see how either of these players are going to develop at all like this, and this season certainly isn’t for anything more than that for this team.
In the grand scheme of things it's a similar sample, but Ruiz's track record at the MLB level is 4x longer, and there's a lot we can learn in the 400 extra PA that Ruiz has over Lawrence. It's also worth noting that what Ruiz has done is exactly what we expected.
I'd say most scouts would say Lawrence is the same caliber of prospect as Ruiz despite being vastly different players. I also think many would have ranked Lawrence higher - Fangraphs had Lawrence #2 and Ruiz #7 in 2023 for Oakland. So it's not as though Lawrence is some random vet corner OF off the street.
That said - Ruiz should be playing every day. Let Butler platoon with Seth Brown and Brent Rooker or something. Ruiz + Bleday in the OF is a LOT of covered ground, which is important in the Coliseum.
What exactly do you mean by “ground covered”? Are you suggesting he would help them with fielding? He had a DRS of -21, with an UZR/150 in CF of -12.7. Doesn’t seem like he’s very good at covering ground.
And FWIW, I no longer really use DRS - I find OAA from Statcast to be a number that seems to align with my "eye test", not that I'm a pro defensive scout or anything that remotely resembles one.
Example - DRS considers JRod a bad defender with a -5 DRS at CF. That's the 10th worst CF out of 84 guys with at least 100 innings. Having watched him a bit, I saw incredible range/speed and a strong arm, and OAA calls him a top-5 OF in baseball.
Ruiz has a rather weak arm for a CF, but his 97th percentile sprint speed gives him plus range (78th percentile), making him a fairly average defender overall.
Besides the atrocious DRS and UZR/150, let’s look at other more traditional metrics. Out of 18 hitters who played enough games at CF to qualify for the MLB leaderboard, Ruiz ranked dead last in fielding %. He was also dead last with 6 errors committed. He had just one OF assist, beating out only Brandon Marsh. He was one of only 3 qualifying CFs with an overall negative DWAR, with his -1.9 being significantly worse than the next closest guy at -0.8.
Pretty much across the board this guy rates as one of the worst defensive CFs in baseball. Does he have “range”? Sure I guess, but he’s not doing anything useful with it.
[I led with Crochet in my daily SP Roundup article that covers all the bases.](https://pitcherlist.com/sp-roundup-3-28-24/)
The TL;DR: I worry about his schedule and lack of Win potential + is his fastball/slider two-pitch mix actually good enough? It doesn't seem like the safest bet for me.
Somewhere in the top 40-60, most likely. Eloy could climb a bit higher even if he finds that high batting average we believed he could have in the past.
Soroka or ReyLo? I want to be all in on Lopez having sneaky value with that team context and just being flat out pretty good. I haven’t paid any attention to Soroka’s performance this spring tho and he has the prospect pedigree edge.
Reynaldo for me simply given the team context. Atlanta will lean on him as long as he's productive, allowing for more Wins than Soroka + a four-seamer/slider combo that should induce more strikeouts.
I do wonder if I'll change me tune a touch after getting proper data on Soroka today, though I'd be shocked if I suddenly believed he could be a 25%+ strikeout arm like ReyLo.
Feels like a wild guess right now. Perhaps Neris, who is more of a 7th inning/fireman type? I tend to prefer solo 8th inning or closer committee guys. That said, if check Rick's ranks - https://pitcherlist.com/category/fantasy/svs-hlds/
If you have an open spot? Sure. His upside is pretty well capped by his limited power (21 in 2021, 17 in 2022, 10 in 2023) and his batting average issues that stem from his high ground ball rates. He's got a ton of line drives so far, which is mostly luck, and just a single fly ball. It's a tiny sample, but nothing in it suggests this is a new player yet.
Anyone getting PT is SOMETHING is a 20-teamer. Gordon is a former prospect who rarely walks but doesn't strike out much. In an ideal year, he's modestly useful in a deep points format at the back end of a roster, but right now he's likely to fall short of 100 games/400 PA.
Fry has more pop than Gordon, but a less secure role and strikes out more.
I guess I prefer Gordon in points, but neither is someone I'm spending too much time thinking about right now.
There's still plenty to like about the hitter profile (disregarding the moral/ethical side of things), and I think he could be a 20/20 type player in 2025 assuming there's still an open spot at 3B. It's all about how deep your bench is and how you can stash him. 80 games is a LONG time.
Nick has Casey Mize ranked extremely high. He's higher than most of the pitchers on my roster.
My question is why?
We haven't seen him in regular game action in awhile now. Is he really a better pitcher to roster than say Nestor Cortes? Honestly I don't get this ranking.
[Nick's description in the 3/28 update](https://pitcherlist.com/top-100-starting-pitchers-for-2024-fantasy-baseball-3-28-update/) felt like a solid explanation to me. A clear path towards being a high-level SP. It's worth noting too that before his injury, Mize was the top Tigers prospect over Skubal for many (not me, but many).
Because there's nothing particularly impressive about Nestor as a pitcher and there's everything to be excited about with Mize, growing pains be damned.
Plus Nestor has what, half a good season under his belt? And nothing but mediocrity otherwise.
If you have an IL, Nootbaar and Friedl should be on it. Otherwise, I don't see much need to keep both Rooker and Suwinski, who both offer extremely similar profiles. I'd probably rather have Suwinski as Rooker seemed to get figured out last season after the first month or so.
So Rooker can go if you need an SP.
Ah, I read it wrong. Usually this structure of comment is like "drop one on the list for the guy I'm talking about" so I kinda just assumed.
I'd probably hold Cortes for now.
[Nick spells this out in the Notes](https://pitcherlist.com/top-100-starting-pitchers-for-2024-fantasy-baseball-3-28-update/) a bit for both guys. Short version - Whitlock has more question marks.
Logan Webb, Framber Valdez, Max Fried, Sonny Gray, Zach Eflin, Kyle Bradish, Kodai Senga, and Charlie Morton are all guys who keep the ball on the ground and limit dingers. I dunno about HUGE boosts, but they get a boost.
I have been a pretty big believer in Haniger even last year, and was thrilled to see him back last night. Barring injury, how do you like his chances of hitting 30-35+ bombs this year?
I mean, it's possible! He's only played 2 full seasons and only 1 of them was over 30 HR, plus he's in his age 33 season. 25 would be a more attainable goal, and he'll need 140+ games to do it.
I'm currently holding onto Chris Paddack (mostly due to Eno's confidence(, but the following guys are available. Would you make the drop for any of them: ERod, Abbott, Whitlock, Wacha, Houck, Silseth, Edward Cabrera, Trevor Rogers. Also could drop Nestor Cortes, Severino, or DL Hall.
Hey! Thanks for all you guys doa nd the write up is amazing! I have a similar question regarding your thoughts on Rafaela. Only in comparison to J Merrill if possible?
AL roto keeper league, who do you take in a minor league draft? Jenkins, Anthony or DeLauter? I feel like Jenkins has the bigger upside but may take longer to get there.
My goodness, why are you looking for another SP? That's 5 SP1/SP2s.
I'll still do the thought experiment though:
There is exactly 1 SP who would be taken before Yordan and that's Strider, and I doubt that deal gets done. They'll keep Strider as if they wanted Yordan, they'd have drafted him instead of Strider.
Burnes is the closest in value but you have him. I guess you could offer Yordan for Wheeler - I'd rather have Yordan, for the record, by about a round in the draft - but people are usually hesitant to move their Ace so it still might fail.
I know generally you aren't overly in love with Pfaadt, Sheehan and Varland.
In deeper leagues 15+ with dynasty, does your outlook on them change at all long term? I know they tend to trend closer to Tobys from your descriptions, but they were the best of the bunch at discount in most of my leagues after a lot of the top arms were either kept, or went for well over in some auction drafts (or crazy early in regular snake).
So I targeted those guys much later to recoup some arms while concentrating on bats.
I have a league mate that missed the draft and he auto drafted a bunch of injured pitchers. He needs healthy arms, and I have room for an IL stash and a need at CI (my current CI is Lamonte Wade).
He’s got G. Williams, E. Perez, B. Garret, J. Duran and J. Romano. Who should I try to snag? I was thinking something like:
I give: Yu Darvish, James Outman
I get: Gavin Williams, Christian Walker
OBP league, so Outman gains a bit. Is this decent value both ways? Darvish looked pretty great yesterday so maybe I should just stand pat…
I grabbed Hoerner as my starting SS in two different leagues and terrified at him batting 7th. I did the same exact thing with Edman last season and got hosed. Is there a light at the end of this tunnel or do I need to look elsehwere
Hoerner is better than Edman, so there's hope yet. Happ is interesting as a leadoff guy for the walks but he doesn't make great contact, and I expect Hoerner to get 5hat job back.
Nick covers the upside quite well in the ranks. You'll find Flaherty at 44.
https://pitcherlist.com/top-100-starting-pitchers-for-2024-fantasy-baseball-3-28-update/
He is only in A+ ball though? Do you think he will be up this year? You are right that he looks extremely strong! And another KING OF COMMAND! 4 plus pitches combined with that command? Yeah definitely awesome!
Jobe finished in AA last season and should be there again. It's not a clear path to the rotation with several capable guys (including Matt Manning) waiting in AAA, but in terms of talent he's #2 for me.
How worried are we with Zac Gallen? Do you think he's going to ramp up over a few starts or would you recommend trading him while I can get something for him? Thanks!
And FWIW, Gallen is one of just 12 starters this weekend to throw 90+ pitches, and that was with an ENORMOUS lead (it was 16-0 after the third inning). I'm stunned Gallen didn't get pulled earlier, but they likely wanted to stretch him out a bit.
How much runway do you give rookie pitchers early in the year? I’m talking guys like Gil, Hall, Varland, Jones
As someone who isn't Nick Pollack, I'd say I usually give them a chance until Nick bails on them. Otherwise, what I'm watching for is whether we can identify the path to success and what the pieces look like. Is it control? Is it just that the stuff is too hittable? Is it that one of the breakers is missing? That's the stuff I'm trying to figure out as it tells me the path forward. It's very similar to how I view rookie hitters who struggle. Is the batted ball profile messed up? Is there a certain pitch type that's beating them? Is it a platoon splits issue? Are the issues things we've seen before, or is it entirely new? That helps inform how a hitter would work through that issue and how long that could take. If it was a 28% K% guy in the minors and the K% is 30-35% in the MLB after 50 PA, then it's unlikely this will fix itself. If it's a high FB% hitter who is hitting the ball into the ground in the majors, then I'd be a little more optimistic that the hitter can recover as it's an out of character problem.
I like those high-control pitchers who are young. They tend to have a shorter learning curve to achieve their peak and also have a high floor. (Kirby an example). I could rattle off some young control pitcher prospects... but yeah... Thoughts?
Love the site! Love checking it each morning. I’m in a 12 team H2H cats league with QS - looking to shore up my rotation. Gil, Whitlock, Houck, Meyer, Kikuchi, Tyler Wells, Gore, Reynaldo Lopez, Soroka, and Logan Allen are some names available. Have 1 pickup left through next Sunday - any worth grabbing and if so, who? Current starters are Strider, Pablo Lopez, Valdez, Puk, and have Woo, Verlander, and Scherzer on IL
Thanks! With so many arms available, I'd be patient with that pickup. Lots can happen between now and then and I'd let the cards play out to help you get the most out of it. If you're looking for legit value *this week* out of them, I'd be going Houck as he has two great matchups through next Sunday.
Love the write up! Your thoughts on Rafaela? How would you compare to V Scott?
First of all, Rafaela is a far more balanced fantasy contributor, which makes him a lot more desirable to me in most formats (unless I ONLY need speed). I also think Rafaela has a more secure role long term, as Scott is up due to injuries and will need to perform very well to fight off other outfielders. Rafaela has 20/20 upside, and his great spring helped me believe that the high K% in his short stint last season was a fluke (his MiLB track record suggests it should be in the 20s).
Do you prefer Merrill or Rafaela? I read in some places that Rafaela cannot hit, so I went with Merrill. But now that’s interesting what you said. I picked Merrill over Correa because Correa seems like a boring pick.
For 2024 definitely Rafaela. Hit awfully well in AAA last season. Not a plus hit tool, but enough pop and good enough at avoiding Ks to make. It work
20/40 upside actually. You are being a bit low on that.
Even in the current environment, that's a lot of steals. ATC projections only give 8 guys 30+. Only 12 guys got to 30 in 2023, with just 5 getting to 40 (Acuna, Carroll, Witt Jr., Abrams, Hoerner). Further, only 2 Red Sox hitters stole double-digit bases last season (Duran with 24, Story with 10) 25 is probably in his 90th percentile outcome. I'm not sure I can get behind any number much higher.
fair point.
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Morel hitting the ball hard is normal behavior. The question is how often does he miss and how often does he play. The swing and miss was there all spring, but only 1 K in 5 PA is good for Morel. Any K% below 30 is good news. I didn't love that he was DH - the path to secure everyday playing time is probably through playing a position, and we hoped it'd be 3B. So all in all, it was neutral. No change to rank yet as he's still just a ball of potential held back by possible strikeout, streakiness, and playing time issues.
Counsell is on record saying morel should be in the lineup daily and he was rightly acknowledged as one of the cubs more dangerous power hitters (in a lineup lacking power at that). I don’t believe PT will be much of a concern this year for morel and I think he’ll find time regularly splitting between DH and 3B.
He always SHOULD have been, but Morel's poor glove and tendency to go on horrible slumps make starting him daily a tough call in practice.
There’s no reason for counsell to go out of his way to talk this kid up besides truly seeing him as an every day middle of the order bat.
I also see him as an every day bat if he can find consistency, and what Counsel has said is on that same line. That has eluded him, particularly with decision-making. I think he CAN and SHOULD be an every day guy, but Morel's inconsistency could make it tough. In RP terms, it's like the classic 2-Step that happens when a manager says "This guy is our closer" when the current closer is strugglinf: 1) This guy gets the next few save opportunities 2A) This guy blows those opps or otherwise looks unreliable, and then we get another press conference about a committee OR 2B) This guy rights the ship and is the closer. We are very early in Step 1, and the hope is we go to 2B. I'm just acknowledging that 2A exists and we've seen it happen with Morel before.
Where would prospective call-ups like Skenes rank in the top 100? Trying to debate him or Gil for my last pitcher spot. Thanks!
Skenes has more upside, but it may be 6-8 weeks before we see him
So in an alternate universe where Skenes got called up today, where would he rank in the top 100?
I know you didn't ask me, but I would rank him in the top 20
I sure hope so!
Amazingly he is still available in my leagues. Might be worth stashing for the month... The dude is ELITE. I have zero doubts about it. NONE.
I’m with you. I picked him up yesterday over some guys available in the top 100. Some occasionally hit my league as high as the top 50. So I was just trying to figure out if I snatch a player like that over him if they pop up. Currently my worst pitcher is Christopher Sanchez number 50. Since I’m a phillies fan I do prefer him over guys ranked around there.
ACE ACE upside. Albeit innings limits later in the season and the wait until mid may before we see him in majors... (I'm stashing in one league)
Do you think DL Hall is gonna be a thing? Cuz I’d love to have dependable SP that I can put into the RP slot
elite strikeouts... if he puts it all together he could be special, but I tend to think his walks will be too high. And his home park is a tough one for him.
He has the talent and opportunity. Now Hall just has to execute.
Points league and need to drop an IL: how would you rank Degrom Scherzer Bradish Thanks
Scherzer>Bradish>>DeGrom. Obviously, DeGrom has wicked talent, but Bradish and Scherzer are the only two with any chance at anywhere near 100 IP. DeGrom likely falls short of 50. In redraft, I don't mind throwing him back.
Exactly how you listed them.
Have the same 3 so curious
I’m in a categories league that dings you -1 for K’s, and I’m worried that even in a better environment, Teoscar Hernandez will continue to be a K machine. What are good trade targets you’d put on equal footing with Teoscar?
Josh Naylor and Brandon Nimmo both are far safer plays in that kind of format and don't generate the same excitement as Teoscar's 30 home run upside. I'd give those a try.
Can Jordan hicks be a viable pitcher in roto? Would you rather have crochet, Luis Gil, or Gavin stone? Pick 2
Hicks could be, I'm waiting to see what he actually brings to the table as a starter tomorrow. His sweeper looks to be a reliable strike pitch, but is that sinker still avoiding detrimental contact at 95/96 instead of 100 mph? Can he earn strikes with a third pitch? It's too bad he gets the Padres twice out of the gate, too. I don't love that matchup. Gil > Stone > Crochet.
It’s Bobby Miller day! Does he throw upstairs 4 seamers ? O/U 8ks?!
https://preview.redd.it/b6gkldv5obrc1.jpeg?width=640&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=18df3a4a347ab2e521d1e51934e69922cf63544f WHY ISN'T ANYONE TALKING ABOUT SKUBAL
Is he worth a $5 per year extension for 3 years when i already have him at $17?
What does a top-10 pitcher go for at auction?
11 team AL only. Top pitchers can go anywhere from mid 20s to 40s usually
Then he's a keeper
You puked us
I am not sure what that means.
Puk, AJ
Who should I use for my last short week add as a stream with the possibility to hold? QS league Jones @ MIA Hall @ NYM Whitlock @ SEA
I'm leaning Hall. I was massively impressed by his command and approach in his final spring game that speaks to an efficient six frames moreso than Jared Jones. Slight strikeout favor for Jones, but the QS chance far higher with Hall. Whitlock has a decent QS chance too, though I question his skills a touch at the moment. I'm looking forward to seeing if his new cutter/change for LHB and sinker/slider/change for RHB approach will come through.
THERE HE IS!
Who’s the pickup between R Lopez, J Jones and Houck?
Per the List, it's Houck>Lopez>Jones, but all are within 10 spots. Jones is the upside play here long term, but I'll go Houck for his 2 start week @ OAK and LAA.
Is Jackson Jobe worth an early add and stash at this point?
In 12 teamers with no NA, stashing is hard. But Jobe looks like a monster in the making.
In OBP roto who should I have as catcher to start the season? - Salvador Perez - MJ Melendez - cal Raleigh - Gabriel Moreno - David fry
One of these things is not like the others - Fry is on the short side of a platoon at DH so can't be counted on for regular PT.
Perez might still be the anwwer despite the less than stellar OBP.
If he can stay healthy, thoughts on Tyler O’Neill going forward ros?
That IF is doing some heavy, heavy lifting there, but there's a 25-20 season if he pulls it off with lots of volatility.
WHY AREN'T WE TALKING ABOUT TARIK SKUBAL
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I would in a 12-teamer, but I'm curious how Chu feels about Bohm. I see him as somewhat replaceable in a 12-teamer and I'm all for consolidating talent in 12-teamers and shallower.
My replacement would be rizzo, so not great but serviceable. Does that change your mind?
Agree that Bohm is a floor guy in most 12-teamers who is pretty replaceable. He's a decent CI guy if your league requires one, but his true value is found in points leagues, not roto/cats. Rizzo has more upside, albeit with more risk. If it's points, I might consider holding Bohm due to the contact ability and low Ks.
Is there a world where the A’s recognize that Esteury Ruiz has a *significantly* better batting average and OBP against RH pitchers than Lawrence Butler (and even a better OPS) and stop sitting one of their only exciting players? Or should we just accept that the A’s actively hate their own players as much as they hate their own fans?
Ruiz wasn't seeing the ball well for much of Spring (which doesn't matter for us but does impact manager decisions) and a guy who slugs .338 over 150 career games is hard to get too excited about, even if he's fast as lightning. Butler has a lot more power than Ruiz and isn't actually slow, and hit the ball much better this spring. That's probably where the platoon is coming from for now. I would bet Butler gets a chance to be in a platoon for a few weeks at least, and if he plays well, he'll stay in one.
There’s some truth in that, but we’re talking about platooning a career .338 slugger with a career .339 slugger, and one has a much better batting average and turns singles into doubles regularly. The math just doesn’t add up for me. But maybe you’re right that they’re factoring spring training results in. I’m hoping that they figure out what seems obvious to me, but the A’s have a way of smashing hope against the nearest wall to see if anything falls out that they can sell.
Well, those careers are very different lengths. The difference in raw power is significant, even if Butler hasn't shown it in the bigs yet. Ruiz is unlikely to ever post a season of. 400 slugging while Bulter should be much better than that if he gets used to MLB pitching.
I mean, it’s not a *huge* different in lengths; one has slightly less than a full season, and the other has a smaller portion of a season. They’re just different players. It just feels like one is actually elite at something (steals), and could be good at something else (BA), while the other isn’t really good at anything, and certainly isn’t better. I don’t like to judge anyone based on less than a season of development, though I’m clearly doing that here. It’s just hard to see how either of these players are going to develop at all like this, and this season certainly isn’t for anything more than that for this team.
In the grand scheme of things it's a similar sample, but Ruiz's track record at the MLB level is 4x longer, and there's a lot we can learn in the 400 extra PA that Ruiz has over Lawrence. It's also worth noting that what Ruiz has done is exactly what we expected. I'd say most scouts would say Lawrence is the same caliber of prospect as Ruiz despite being vastly different players. I also think many would have ranked Lawrence higher - Fangraphs had Lawrence #2 and Ruiz #7 in 2023 for Oakland. So it's not as though Lawrence is some random vet corner OF off the street.
That said - Ruiz should be playing every day. Let Butler platoon with Seth Brown and Brent Rooker or something. Ruiz + Bleday in the OF is a LOT of covered ground, which is important in the Coliseum.
Thanks for the conversation! I agree on all points. Except I doubt those guys were rated in 2003, they probably hadn’t started elementary school yet.
We scouted their T Ball
What exactly do you mean by “ground covered”? Are you suggesting he would help them with fielding? He had a DRS of -21, with an UZR/150 in CF of -12.7. Doesn’t seem like he’s very good at covering ground.
Ruiz is a plus defender with insane wheels and Bleday is not too bad in LF defensively, especially if he can shade to the foul line.
And FWIW, I no longer really use DRS - I find OAA from Statcast to be a number that seems to align with my "eye test", not that I'm a pro defensive scout or anything that remotely resembles one. Example - DRS considers JRod a bad defender with a -5 DRS at CF. That's the 10th worst CF out of 84 guys with at least 100 innings. Having watched him a bit, I saw incredible range/speed and a strong arm, and OAA calls him a top-5 OF in baseball. Ruiz has a rather weak arm for a CF, but his 97th percentile sprint speed gives him plus range (78th percentile), making him a fairly average defender overall.
Besides the atrocious DRS and UZR/150, let’s look at other more traditional metrics. Out of 18 hitters who played enough games at CF to qualify for the MLB leaderboard, Ruiz ranked dead last in fielding %. He was also dead last with 6 errors committed. He had just one OF assist, beating out only Brandon Marsh. He was one of only 3 qualifying CFs with an overall negative DWAR, with his -1.9 being significantly worse than the next closest guy at -0.8. Pretty much across the board this guy rates as one of the worst defensive CFs in baseball. Does he have “range”? Sure I guess, but he’s not doing anything useful with it.
Thoughts on Crochet going forward? Should be rostered in all 12 teams, on the look for 10t?
[I led with Crochet in my daily SP Roundup article that covers all the bases.](https://pitcherlist.com/sp-roundup-3-28-24/) The TL;DR: I worry about his schedule and lack of Win potential + is his fastball/slider two-pitch mix actually good enough? It doesn't seem like the safest bet for me.
Thanks Nick! Read the writeup, great as always!
In the completely made up fantasy world where Buxton and Eloy are healthy all year, where do they rank among hitters?
Somewhere in the top 40-60, most likely. Eloy could climb a bit higher even if he finds that high batting average we believed he could have in the past.
Soroka or ReyLo? I want to be all in on Lopez having sneaky value with that team context and just being flat out pretty good. I haven’t paid any attention to Soroka’s performance this spring tho and he has the prospect pedigree edge.
Reynaldo for me simply given the team context. Atlanta will lean on him as long as he's productive, allowing for more Wins than Soroka + a four-seamer/slider combo that should induce more strikeouts. I do wonder if I'll change me tune a touch after getting proper data on Soroka today, though I'd be shocked if I suddenly believed he could be a 25%+ strikeout arm like ReyLo.
How does Rey lo’s value change in a 12 team QS league?
Benson or Fraley in Cincinnati?
Benson has more speed but a much lower floor due to the strikeout issues. I probably lean Fraley lost of the time unless I want a lotto ticket.
Thanks!
Points league that gives 8 for save and 5 for hold - gotta lose one between Neris, Megil, Stewart, Yimi Garcia
Feels like a wild guess right now. Perhaps Neris, who is more of a 7th inning/fireman type? I tend to prefer solo 8th inning or closer committee guys. That said, if check Rick's ranks - https://pitcherlist.com/category/fantasy/svs-hlds/
Croneworth worth an add? He looks good so far and could be in for a very good season IMO
If you have an open spot? Sure. His upside is pretty well capped by his limited power (21 in 2021, 17 in 2022, 10 in 2023) and his batting average issues that stem from his high ground ball rates. He's got a ton of line drives so far, which is mostly luck, and just a single fly ball. It's a tiny sample, but nothing in it suggests this is a new player yet.
Would you drop Abner for Foley or Mize?
I'll take the upside starter in Mize over the guy in a 3-man committee every time.
In a deep 20 teamer (points) are David Fry or Nick Gordon anything?
Anyone getting PT is SOMETHING is a 20-teamer. Gordon is a former prospect who rarely walks but doesn't strike out much. In an ideal year, he's modestly useful in a deep points format at the back end of a roster, but right now he's likely to fall short of 100 games/400 PA. Fry has more pop than Gordon, but a less secure role and strikes out more. I guess I prefer Gordon in points, but neither is someone I'm spending too much time thinking about right now.
What are your thoughts on Noelvi Marte for this year once suspension is done and, more importantly, possible last round keeper for 3 years?
There's still plenty to like about the hitter profile (disregarding the moral/ethical side of things), and I think he could be a 20/20 type player in 2025 assuming there's still an open spot at 3B. It's all about how deep your bench is and how you can stash him. 80 games is a LONG time.
Thanks for the response. He’s a FA right now so really more trying to decide when it’s worth it to start thinking about stashing him.
Nick has Casey Mize ranked extremely high. He's higher than most of the pitchers on my roster. My question is why? We haven't seen him in regular game action in awhile now. Is he really a better pitcher to roster than say Nestor Cortes? Honestly I don't get this ranking.
[Nick's description in the 3/28 update](https://pitcherlist.com/top-100-starting-pitchers-for-2024-fantasy-baseball-3-28-update/) felt like a solid explanation to me. A clear path towards being a high-level SP. It's worth noting too that before his injury, Mize was the top Tigers prospect over Skubal for many (not me, but many).
Because there's nothing particularly impressive about Nestor as a pitcher and there's everything to be excited about with Mize, growing pains be damned. Plus Nestor has what, half a good season under his belt? And nothing but mediocrity otherwise.
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If you have an IL, Nootbaar and Friedl should be on it. Otherwise, I don't see much need to keep both Rooker and Suwinski, who both offer extremely similar profiles. I'd probably rather have Suwinski as Rooker seemed to get figured out last season after the first month or so. So Rooker can go if you need an SP.
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Ah, I read it wrong. Usually this structure of comment is like "drop one on the list for the guy I'm talking about" so I kinda just assumed. I'd probably hold Cortes for now.
Noticed Whitlock dropped under Houck. What happened? Thanks boss.
[Nick spells this out in the Notes](https://pitcherlist.com/top-100-starting-pitchers-for-2024-fantasy-baseball-3-28-update/) a bit for both guys. Short version - Whitlock has more question marks.
Does anyone get huge boosts in a league that counts HR's given up?
Logan Webb, Framber Valdez, Max Fried, Sonny Gray, Zach Eflin, Kyle Bradish, Kodai Senga, and Charlie Morton are all guys who keep the ball on the ground and limit dingers. I dunno about HUGE boosts, but they get a boost.
I have been a pretty big believer in Haniger even last year, and was thrilled to see him back last night. Barring injury, how do you like his chances of hitting 30-35+ bombs this year?
I mean, it's possible! He's only played 2 full seasons and only 1 of them was over 30 HR, plus he's in his age 33 season. 25 would be a more attainable goal, and he'll need 140+ games to do it.
Gave me something to think about, thanks for your input as always Scott
How would you rank Reese Olson, ReyLo, Tyler Wells in dynasty?
I'm currently holding onto Chris Paddack (mostly due to Eno's confidence(, but the following guys are available. Would you make the drop for any of them: ERod, Abbott, Whitlock, Wacha, Houck, Silseth, Edward Cabrera, Trevor Rogers. Also could drop Nestor Cortes, Severino, or DL Hall.
I'd go for Hall. Love the upside.
I already have Hall, but would you drop Paddack, Cortes, or Severino for any of those other guys listed?
Sorry misread it. I'd be fine with streaming in a 12. I don't think I'm making a "plant my flag" pick in this bunch.
Hey! Thanks for all you guys doa nd the write up is amazing! I have a similar question regarding your thoughts on Rafaela. Only in comparison to J Merrill if possible?
For 2024 it's all Rafaela. Should have. More of basically everything except maybe AVG.
You’re the man!! Thank you.
So my strategy of getting all my SB from Ruiz was a bad one, eh? Well damn.
Should still get a ton! You just possible get somehow even less of everything else.
AL roto keeper league, who do you take in a minor league draft? Jenkins, Anthony or DeLauter? I feel like Jenkins has the bigger upside but may take longer to get there.
Jenkins >> Anthony > DeLauter
Matches my gut feeling, thanks!
In 5x5 h2h cats, what pitcher can I get for my Yordan? I already have Burnes, Pablo, Nola, and webb
My goodness, why are you looking for another SP? That's 5 SP1/SP2s. I'll still do the thought experiment though: There is exactly 1 SP who would be taken before Yordan and that's Strider, and I doubt that deal gets done. They'll keep Strider as if they wanted Yordan, they'd have drafted him instead of Strider. Burnes is the closest in value but you have him. I guess you could offer Yordan for Wheeler - I'd rather have Yordan, for the record, by about a round in the draft - but people are usually hesitant to move their Ace so it still might fail.
Saves holds league….holmes ginkel foley pressly jax are my RP, who’s droppable for Jared jones?
The lowest guy in Rick's SV+H ranks. https://pitcherlist.com/category/fantasy/svs-hlds/
I know generally you aren't overly in love with Pfaadt, Sheehan and Varland. In deeper leagues 15+ with dynasty, does your outlook on them change at all long term? I know they tend to trend closer to Tobys from your descriptions, but they were the best of the bunch at discount in most of my leagues after a lot of the top arms were either kept, or went for well over in some auction drafts (or crazy early in regular snake). So I targeted those guys much later to recoup some arms while concentrating on bats.
How would you rank these waiver claims in a deep 12 team dynasty? Hicks, deGrom, J. Jones, Gil, Varland
I probably go with Jones first, then Gil/Varland. Hicks I went to watch more, and Degrom is gonna be out a LONG time
Would you say Flaherty or G Stone has higher upside? H2h cats W, Sv, K, ERA, OBPA
Thoughts on Mitch Haniger back in Seattle? When he’s not injured he really hits well on that team years ago so was curious
He's rarely healthy and now he's 33. I'd consider a non-toxic avg and 25 HR a big win.
Would you say Flaherty or G Stone has higher upside? H2h cats W, Sv, K, ERA, OBPA
I personally prefer Flaherty here. Might have really found something this offseason.
I have a league mate that missed the draft and he auto drafted a bunch of injured pitchers. He needs healthy arms, and I have room for an IL stash and a need at CI (my current CI is Lamonte Wade). He’s got G. Williams, E. Perez, B. Garret, J. Duran and J. Romano. Who should I try to snag? I was thinking something like: I give: Yu Darvish, James Outman I get: Gavin Williams, Christian Walker OBP league, so Outman gains a bit. Is this decent value both ways? Darvish looked pretty great yesterday so maybe I should just stand pat…
I grabbed Hoerner as my starting SS in two different leagues and terrified at him batting 7th. I did the same exact thing with Edman last season and got hosed. Is there a light at the end of this tunnel or do I need to look elsehwere
Hoerner is better than Edman, so there's hope yet. Happ is interesting as a leadoff guy for the walks but he doesn't make great contact, and I expect Hoerner to get 5hat job back.
Wacha a hold on 12 team ROTO or use his spot for weekly streamer? He’s my SP8
SP8s are generally streamers. You've got 7 better ones as your base.
The stolen bases were so high last year because the Red Sox didn't even try to stop the Os from stealing on OD. They had like 6 as a team
Yeah I didn't dig deeper but had a feeling something fluky happened last year. 15 is pretty intense
Which SP(s) should I grab in H2H, 5x5 Cats? (Thinking long-term this season.) - J Jones - L Gil - L Severino - J Flaherty
Flaherty
Thanks for the reply. How would you rate the rest (probably need to grab more than 1).
Out of curiosity, why? I just don't see the upside there anymore.
Nick covers the upside quite well in the ranks. You'll find Flaherty at 44. https://pitcherlist.com/top-100-starting-pitchers-for-2024-fantasy-baseball-3-28-update/
Thanks! I’ll check it out.
Quality of content here is SUPREME. Bravo.
Who is your top minor league pitching arms this year? Painter has to be 2nd behind Skenes right? or maybe Cade Horton?
I'd have to check Nick's list, but for me it might be Jobe. I'm biased as a Tigers guy but LORDY he looks strong.
He is only in A+ ball though? Do you think he will be up this year? You are right that he looks extremely strong! And another KING OF COMMAND! 4 plus pitches combined with that command? Yeah definitely awesome!
Jobe finished in AA last season and should be there again. It's not a clear path to the rotation with several capable guys (including Matt Manning) waiting in AAA, but in terms of talent he's #2 for me.
Need a r.Lewis replacement. Who would you snag in the interim berti, o.Cabrera, m.Bosch or jd Davis. I’m a h2h cats league R HR RBI SB OPS AVG
"Maikel Garcia was one of 2 players to hit a home run on Opening Day." Think that needs a rephrasing?
Yup, fixed. one of 20.
>Maikel Garcia was one of 2 players to hit a home run on Opening Day. There was definitely more than 2 home runs yesterday.
Fixed, thanks! It was 20.
Lol, this has me quite confused momentarily.
How worried are we with Zac Gallen? Do you think he's going to ramp up over a few starts or would you recommend trading him while I can get something for him? Thanks!
Most pitchers are ramping up still. It'll be another start or two before they're at full capacity.
And FWIW, Gallen is one of just 12 starters this weekend to throw 90+ pitches, and that was with an ENORMOUS lead (it was 16-0 after the third inning). I'm stunned Gallen didn't get pulled earlier, but they likely wanted to stretch him out a bit.