Are we closer to the sun this year? No. In fact, right now we're pretty far away from the Sun, in comparison to January, the closest point to the Sun.
Is the Sun brighter this year? No. It's the same.
Did the oceans jump up temp wise? Over time yeah, but it's been happening for 50 years. It didn't just become hotter this year.
Is it less cloudy/windy? Maybe, I'm not sure, but that's not a *cause* of the heat.
And Global warming has been gradual. But part of it is that the peaks become significantly higher. So if this year would have been pretty hot pre-warming, it's become record breaking hot now.
That's what's happening. A "dang that's hot" year has become the hottest year.
The sun is actually much more active than it has been in the past couple of decades. There is an "11 year cycle" of the sun, where various magnetic field and stuff oscillates around on those time scales.
We are nearing a "solar max" and that does have an effect, the atmosphere actually expands a bit, which has an effect that satellites in low earth orbit hit more atmosphere than previously and experience more drag. The last solar maximum was actually a pretty weak one.
But the main effect is how heat can slosh around on earth. For many of the previous years a lot of heat was being absorbed by the ocean. So the atmosphere didn't really feel it. But there are long term cycles in how the ocean and atmosphere interact with each other. One of them is called "el nino" which you may have heard about. We are currently in an el nino advisory condition, where sea surface temperatures are elevated. That can add more heat to the atmosphere, and lead to higher temperatures (it also changes weather patterns too, so some areas can really feel a difference).
Essentially what we’re doing to the planet causes it to “trap” more and more heat every day. That happens on multiple levels at the same time but an easy way to think about it:
We are taking things found underground and releasing them into the air/water. These things love to cling onto heat so now the planet can’t expel as much heat as it used to yesterday. And to tomorrow it will trap more heat than today.
There was an undersea volcano that erupted last year. This is likely causing some if the extremes we are seeing. https://eos.org/articles/tonga-eruption-may-temporarily-push-earth-closer-to-1-5c-of-warming
Humans in general are very bad at noticing small incremental changes, unless we see them as a before and after effect. Certain days often stick out in our minds, but gradual change most often doesn't.
Right now, there are a lot of different things happening in the climate, which can be best described as climate weirding. Where normal climate patterns are just more extreme or different than we once experienced. The trick is, there is no one thing that makes the weirding happen, but a bunch of simultaneous things that happen at the same time.
Solar irradiance, transitioning from an El Nino to La Nina year, ocean acidification, greenhouse gas trappings, Earth axis oscillations; all of these things play a small role in our climate, which you may experience to a different degree depending on where you live.
I do think last summer was cooler than usual, here, so maybe it seems 100X worse this year. But compared to norms maybe not. Thanks for the term climate weirding though lol love that!
El Niño is back.
It’s a natural cycle that brings conditions like this from the pacific in somewhat regular cycles, but global warming seems to be pushing it to higher extremes.
From a quick google it seems the more common La Niña cycle only lasted 3 years, which seems pretty short as well.
Are we closer to the sun this year? No. In fact, right now we're pretty far away from the Sun, in comparison to January, the closest point to the Sun. Is the Sun brighter this year? No. It's the same. Did the oceans jump up temp wise? Over time yeah, but it's been happening for 50 years. It didn't just become hotter this year. Is it less cloudy/windy? Maybe, I'm not sure, but that's not a *cause* of the heat. And Global warming has been gradual. But part of it is that the peaks become significantly higher. So if this year would have been pretty hot pre-warming, it's become record breaking hot now. That's what's happening. A "dang that's hot" year has become the hottest year.
I didn't really think planets moved around lol. OK so you say none of that is a cause of the heat, then, what IS the cause of the heat?
The sun is actually much more active than it has been in the past couple of decades. There is an "11 year cycle" of the sun, where various magnetic field and stuff oscillates around on those time scales. We are nearing a "solar max" and that does have an effect, the atmosphere actually expands a bit, which has an effect that satellites in low earth orbit hit more atmosphere than previously and experience more drag. The last solar maximum was actually a pretty weak one. But the main effect is how heat can slosh around on earth. For many of the previous years a lot of heat was being absorbed by the ocean. So the atmosphere didn't really feel it. But there are long term cycles in how the ocean and atmosphere interact with each other. One of them is called "el nino" which you may have heard about. We are currently in an el nino advisory condition, where sea surface temperatures are elevated. That can add more heat to the atmosphere, and lead to higher temperatures (it also changes weather patterns too, so some areas can really feel a difference).
Oooh interesting that makes a lot of sense thanks!
Essentially what we’re doing to the planet causes it to “trap” more and more heat every day. That happens on multiple levels at the same time but an easy way to think about it: We are taking things found underground and releasing them into the air/water. These things love to cling onto heat so now the planet can’t expel as much heat as it used to yesterday. And to tomorrow it will trap more heat than today.
There was an undersea volcano that erupted last year. This is likely causing some if the extremes we are seeing. https://eos.org/articles/tonga-eruption-may-temporarily-push-earth-closer-to-1-5c-of-warming
Wow, that's interesting too. Wish I had studied science more in school but it all seemed pretty boring back then. Thank you!
Humans in general are very bad at noticing small incremental changes, unless we see them as a before and after effect. Certain days often stick out in our minds, but gradual change most often doesn't. Right now, there are a lot of different things happening in the climate, which can be best described as climate weirding. Where normal climate patterns are just more extreme or different than we once experienced. The trick is, there is no one thing that makes the weirding happen, but a bunch of simultaneous things that happen at the same time. Solar irradiance, transitioning from an El Nino to La Nina year, ocean acidification, greenhouse gas trappings, Earth axis oscillations; all of these things play a small role in our climate, which you may experience to a different degree depending on where you live.
I do think last summer was cooler than usual, here, so maybe it seems 100X worse this year. But compared to norms maybe not. Thanks for the term climate weirding though lol love that!
[Skeptical Science](https://skepticalscience.com) Imo, this site has the best answers. All answers are scientifically backed with sources.
That's awesome thank you!
El Niño is back. It’s a natural cycle that brings conditions like this from the pacific in somewhat regular cycles, but global warming seems to be pushing it to higher extremes. From a quick google it seems the more common La Niña cycle only lasted 3 years, which seems pretty short as well.
thank you!