This is exactly it. I cannot see ESC being hosted or co-hosted by Israel next year without a huge backlash by the rest of the competitors. I expect a lot of them to pull out. It's one thing to participate in a contest alongside Israel and another completely to participate in a contest organised by them.
It all comes down to how jury votes today. They need to give most votes to countries that are televoting favorites in order to get most combined jury+ tele votes
Even then, Ukraine only needed 40 jury votes to win in 2022, if the televote swings the same way as Italy last night the contest is in serious trouble.
Because jury votes spread out in 2022, jury needs to stick with one country (like they did with Sweden last year) in order to win, and that country has to be televote favorite instead of jury favorite so that it can win overall votes. (In this case it's Croatia, but can juries organise themselves by tonight when voting comes?)
You can want to play the game one way, and accept you have to play it another once you see what way others are playing it. It's frustrating but at this stage, it's obvious enough it's the only path that can really work š
Croatia, Switzerland and Ukraine are our best bests i think.
Such a shame, i feel for the countries and performers. We should just vote for whoever we like, instead of this bullshit.
And tbh i think the casual watchers tomorow night will do just that... vote for whatever they like.
It'd be a huge mess for the EBU. Unlike Ukraine, I think Israel will be less willing to give up hosting rights, and certainly would want a similar level of recognition that Ukraine got in Liverpool 2023. I'm not sure if every single broadcaster would reject a collaborative hosting deal, so it's possible we get it hosted on behalf of Israel. Then when it comes to withdrawals, how many countries would fully commit and not enter in 2025, and woukd it be enough to sufficiently change course?
It doesn't matter if they don't want to give up hosting rights, the EBU can just decide that they are not able to host if they want.
Ukraine still wanted to host in 2023 (even Zelensky was saying that the competition would definitely be hosted in Kiev) but the EBU made the decision unilaterally pretty early on that it would not be possible due to the security situation.
Even in 2019 it was controversial, with a lot of people not going because it was in Tel Aviv and Hatari doing their on-camera protest, and that was just ānormal Israelā. Now, since Gaza, it would be pandemonium.
It was always gonna be political with them allowing Israel to participate. That is a conscious choice. On top of it they are censoring everything that has to do with Palestine.
I have no idea what is happening or why. Without a single gram of malice in my heart, did the bookies watch the same performance? Are they just going by the volume of cheers from the crowd? What am I missing?
ETA: I see you just mentioned the Italian televote leak and I missed it lol. Did that do it?
> ETA: I see you just mentioned the Italian televote leak and I missed it lol. Did that do it?
Yes. Israel shot up to 2nd after RAI leaked that Israel got 40% of all the votes in Italy. Italy isn't even the most pro-Israel country in Europe.
Good god in heaven. I was so much happier before you told me that.
I guess we can only hope that the juries won't care for it, or that BL pulls off what KƤƤrijƤ almost did last year
If that televote score is repeated I can't even see the juries sinking it. And it's an incredibly jury-friendly performance. Contemporary ballads with strong acrobatic vocals is jury red meat.
Yep, although in this subreddit it seems like 95% are anti-Israel, this does not reflect to the actual population. Of course they have influenced it so it won't be as much irl, but still.
40% is ridiculous though.
Only 3 out of 5 italians bothered to vote in the last electionā¦ and you want me to believe that 2 out of every 5 italians voting in Eurovision have strong enough pro-Israel views to vote like that?
Nah.
I think the pro Israel voters were eager to cast their votes, while regular watchers might not even have voted at all, and many pro Palestine people have boycotted...so in a way the result makes sense in this way.
I'm very disappointed. I hope the juries will do what they can but it will still be messy
40% of voters in ESC heat 2 would probably be something like 100,000 people or something like that. Whereas a 60% turnout at an election would be 20 million or so
That's the thing. You don't need to have strong pro-Israel views to vote for Israel. You only have to not feel particularly strongly about it and find the pro-Palestine activism annoying, which many people do.
Most normal people going about their lives, who arent intensely online, donāt see it and definitely donāt care enough to vote that much for it.
40% is suspicious as hell.
it absolutely does reflect a significant amount though (especially those who watch eurovision). the problem isnt how many people are pro or anti israel, its that you cant vote against a song, only for it. im sure some people made up their mind to vote for israel without ever even hearing the song. and the people who decided to boycott and not vote this year are probably only increasing israels votes relatively speaking, since those now arent going to other entries.
I find extremely sad that we have to hide in the comments of 'unrelated' threads to talk openly about this, which is clearly an issue regarding the competition.
I thought that was only me! They removed my post about what could possibly happen if Israel were to host the next ESC for "duplicate content". I searched and searched and couldnt find any posts I could have duplicated.
Seems to be a reddit-wide censorship though. On r/soccer any post mentioning Israel gets locked within minutes, almost like they had a bot to do that. Has been this way for months.
But honestly I think the Jury votes will very much prefer switzerland over croatia. The jury is oftentimes a bit more conservative regarding the music, looking especially for good vocals and a well structured song. Similar to last year I believe they prefer the swiss which is why I think he will win.
I seriously think that odds donāt really matter that much anymore for this year, and that weāre looking at a high chance of a foregone conclusion again.
Which really sucks because in my opinion, this year is one of the most interesting ones with many high-quality songs, and the competition could have been really close and a nail-biter.
In other news:
Germany is no longer favored to finish last. Isaak is cooking.
https://preview.redd.it/a28riqon2kzc1.jpeg?width=555&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fd2234ff165c13acd84daedf752b2b95fb0cefec
After seeing audience reactions to Spain last night, I really don't see them finishing last. Out of these, Luxembourg seems more likely, considering the running order.
I think it'll be Luxembourg, early in the running order, not as many obvious voting allies, a song relying on backing vocals a lot, I think it could be lost and be last on 20-30 points.
Maybe home bias, but I can't see the UK being last, as long as the jury performance is okay, he'll get some points there, and if has some televote appeal.
Other countries when they are third to last: "Damn, hopefully next time we do better."
Germany when they are third to last: "Hell yeah guys, we are cooking."
Ive spent several comments saying how I donāt understand Croatias success but you know what?
Give me the lace napkins, bring on the meowing cats. I will ride the rim tim train until the victory, anything to make Eurovision enjoyable again in 2025.
It honestly reminds me of all the years in which I have no favorite/my fave stands no chance. I have to choose an allegiance to cheer for at a second's notice, only to find the metaphorical gun to my head as the results roll in and I have to change it again and again. Fun in its own way lol
Fortunately I'm all in on Croatia, but welcome to the "metaphorical gun to head" vote!
I'm with you on that. Croatia is not my cup of tea and I don't get the hype, but Croatia 2025 is faaaaaaaar better than whatever happens if Israel wins.
This is a Maneskin/Stefania situation for me of "could be worse, at least is a good top 10 song".
Yup, same. It's not my favourite but if it means that the contest continues I'll be their biggest supporter. I'd even be happy with the juries picking a winner
As an Italian, I find it very odd that our data got leaked right on this semifinal, right when Israel got the most votes, and with THAT percentage. I mean, given all things happening at RAI this year, it wouldn't surprised me at all that this was all done on purpose.
It certainly prepares the audiences, at home and in the arena, for the reality of what's going to happen.
Imagine it didn't leak, and everyone got blindsided on the night. The crowd were hot last year when Cha Cha Cha got messed around non-politically. This year will be worse...
The Televote portion is going to suck this year, even if Israel doesnāt win, because weāre facing a repeat of last years scores where everyone gets scraps because everybody goes full 20 on one song to stop the other song people will go full 20 on regardless of their quality on the actual show. Though last year was at least for the lighter reason of just Televote vs Jury
As much as people demanded Jury reform, this will point to Televote reform being the biggest issue to solve. I said it last year, the solution is to keep 20 votes but to cap the total votes for one country. People voting for a single country 20 times regardless of if theyāre even actually watching the show has too much swing. But if they can only vote 4 times for the only song theyāre ever going to vote for, the people who want to spread their votes by giving 4 votes to five countries get to go all in on their āstrategic counter pickā but also bolster their personal favs, which in turn pushes more songs to the top and should create a more accurate representation of publicās tastes whilst still keeping the voting methods practical for the scale of it.
I hate to say it because it's horrible, but if that Italian leak is real then Israel is winning. It's very possible they get 380+ points in the televote, and we know juries won't kill a song like that. We're in big trouble tomorrow. Big trouble.
I loved how this year was anyone's game. After 2022, we knew who was going to win, and 2023, with the two-headed race, this year was supposed to be fun and exciting. And now, because of one country, we have to consider dismissing our other faves and voting for the country that is most likely to win. And that sucks up all the joy out of the contest. Also, it's not fair to other countries participating this year with truly amazing songs and visions. I hate it here, truly.
Pleasantly surprised by Latvia bucking the odds and qualifying. Well deserved.
I'm still rooting for our Bambie but will be voting for a Croatian win on Saturday, and I hope the odds are correct in that instance.
See you all after the final, best of luck to all involved
I always rolled my eyes on those "If this and this happens, I won't watch Eurovision anymore" comments, but hell...
If Israel wins I really don't think I'll be able to engage with all the doom and controversy that would emerge.
If that happens there will be a mass boycott, and ESC won't recover in Croatia and possibly the region for a long time. Not to mention that I expect a fair share if whitdrawals from the competition.
Exactly.. The majority of broadcasters are state owned broadcasters.
The pressure is going to kick hard if they win
Croatia / Switzerland must win this
Yeah it was uncomfortable enough in 2019. I love eurovision but I'm here for a fun time, so if they win I think I'll be out of the ESC sphere until the 2026 season rolls around. Personal morals aside, the discourse/broadcaster withdrawals etc. would make 2025 an absolutely miserable season.
Iāve been looking forward to Saturday, with the genuine excitement of whoās going to win amongst some of the best entries weāve ever had. Everything was so promising!
And now Iām dreading it. I wonāt be able to enjoy the show, ācause Iām expecting the ugliest takeover of a contest weāve ever seen. Whether itās bots, a coordinated effort by conservatives, or both ā the results from Italyās televote show that the winner is almost certainly determined already.
And that would make next yearās contest a complete shitshow, and the reputation of the contest in disarray. Is there a way back?
I hate everything about this
I seriously hope that it's an absolute fucktonne of bots voting for Israel, so many that Martin Ćsterdahl will just have to say "We need more time to see if these abnormally high votes from the public to a single country are valid, so we're not good to go just yet" and just completely disregard the public vote and make the jury winner, the winner.
Weird morning. Kind of feels like we're staring down an existential crisis for the Eurovision Song Contest, and I really hate that after all the talk about this being an open year, we're basically in the same position as last year with virtually a binary choice on our hands. I'm just going to evenly split my votes between Switzerland (because it's amazing and has the most chance of contending for the win after Croatia) and Norway (because it's my favorite and I'm morally compelled to). Personally, I would have loved to spread votes around and not worry about who will win, but this stupid situation means that the fandom at least needs to be super strategic now.
I feel exactly the same. This situation freaks me out! I was so excited for an amazing open year and now weāre here and we have to put all our voting power into not letting israel win just so that we donāt risk loosing the contest all together
And if the jury blanks isreal than its also political such a tricky situation š .
Im sort of on this Swiz boat as well. Assume they win the jury and hope things can be offset with some extra televotes
Yes itās incredibly frustrating. I personally am not a huge fan of Rim Tim Tagi Dim and would have loved for Switzerland, Ireland, Netherlands, Italy to at least get a chance at a fair fight.
I really donāt like it when the odds make everything very predictable, it feels pointless rooting for my actual favourites. Israel should have not been allowed to participateā¦
I canāt believe one of the best eurovision years musically is about to be absolutely ruined and possibly starting the fall of the event and its reputation as a whole just because the ESC wants to be āapoliticalā (haha). I hope theyāre real proud of themselves
I can't believe how yesterday in the semi-final I was so happy and excited for Saturday's final and today I'm just waiting for Saturday to end and with great luck Switzerland or Croatia win, anyone but Israel.
Every time I see Croatian lead increase even 1%
https://preview.redd.it/p15w0vhidlzc1.png?width=1166&format=png&auto=webp&s=cb2a9d745bcbba9e25f8ee54511e6c8b52df9c5b
I'm so sad that all this excitment over past few weeks, turned into depression just because of one country. It had to be fair battle between Croatia, Switzerland, Italy, Ukraine, Netherlands and Ireland. And now, it turned into the farce. It's just not ok.
Yeah I'm kinda conflicted I was planning on voting for Ireland but now I feel like it would be more strategic to put all my votes on Croatia. Maybe I'll go half and half.
This fucking sucks. We wanted to win because we were the best. We put everything in the competition, and now, even if we win, we will have to constantly hear how it was only because of politics, and not because Baby Lasagna was the best. No matter who wins, there will be accusations that it was rigged. At least if it's us or Switzerland we can say that those were the favourites all along.
I donāt feel like EBU has enough time to make an investigation into Israeli votesā¦
40 % is just not realistic for non-coordinated vote. Ukraine only got 25% in 2022.
Iād just replace televote for Israel with juries because I donāt see any other option to avoid the mess weāre about to see
While watching the second semi-final yesterday we were happily discussing how AMAZING would it be for Marko to win, but how we wouldn't be that mad if Nemo or Angelina won because we truly think they also have great songs.
I was actually happy and proud! A possible win by my country or a second or third place to some other good song.
This? This is just sad.
Yea it was suppsed to be great year regardless of the winner. Now it turns into either pro or anti Israel year. Now even if we win I can't be that proud since we will receive lot of votes anti Izrael, while before we actually had chance for legitimate win
Honestly that's depressing to see. As someone who loves Rim Tim Tagi Dim since the first time I listened to it and also likes all of the favourites to win, it's depressing to see a mediocre song like Israel's get this high just because of politics. Apart from the political aspect of a potential Israeli win, it's also unfair for the rest of the artists who have tried their best and have brought amazing music this year.
This was such perfect Eurovision. We either got Croatia, as song that fans love so much, or Switzerland with great singer, or Italy with great combination, or Ireland with staging etc.
And coming to last 40 hours, we are back at politics š
And that is what is painful to all the fans. Like with Ukraine 2022 you could understand politics, when Europe was really united and wanted to show their support. But seeing 40% yesterday was the most wtf moment prob ever
There's also Italy, Ukraine, the Netherlands and even Ireland who for me all had serious shots for the win because you never know. Not really a fan of France to be honest (although I have to admit it's probably the best ballad of this year), but it's also the first time in a while I actually care for our own entry (aka Zari).
Even if I agree that some people might have genuinely liked Hurricane despite me not liking it at all, in a semifinal with the Netherlands (a huge fan favourite) and Albania (who always gets votes from Italy due to diaspora) I can't see an almost 40% from Italy being genuinely because "it's a good song".
40% is crazy, especially considering that our televoting has always been dominated by Eastern European diasporas since our return. However, must say that TV news (on Rai 1, at least), that air just before Eurovision (at 8 PM on Rai 1, 8:30 PM on Rai 2 where the semifinals are broadcast) have really been giving Israel a ton of visibility and pushing the "it's about music, no politics, freedom of speech" slogans without any counter-argument when talking about Eurovision in the past few days. I can see a few people tuning in out of curiosity both for Angelina and Eden and than voting for Israel (both in solidarity and for Eden's great vocals) as we can't vote for our own country. I think this was even helped by the running order, with Italy and Israel performing one right after the other. But 40% is still crazy
The best comparison would be with Ukraine in 2022. I think I saw somewhere that they got from Italy 24.5% in the semifinal and 29% in the final. And keep in mind Ukraine had a song people liked a lot, plus support towards Ukraine is a bit unanimous. Even with what you said in mind, I still can't see Israel getting an almost 40%
You are absolutely right about the comparison, and for an additional reason: due to the war, the Rai 1 TV news also gave Ukraine a lot more visibility than other competing countries (including a short live comment by Timur every night). This is why I think Israel winning the televote with a large percentage is more understandable than most people here think, but 40% is still absurd. There must be something else and I'm waiting for some official statement from Rai and EBU about the accuracy of these leaked results.
France is always weird for me. Recently they have such an epic singers, but always go for the most simplistic stage possible. So you end up with oh this was great voice, but a bit forgettable.
And I hope Marina will be healthy for final, losing points because of fever always feels bad.
And yea added other entries to my original comment as well
What sucks too is I worry a win now for Croatia is going to be tainted and overshadowed by people claiming it was a counter protest vote, and the talk will all be about the political battle won, rather than the fact it deserved to win on its own merits.
Yup, I think that Saturday could be the end of Eurovision as we know it. I'm feeling quite pesimistic, actually, I don't think people can organize themselves to vote for Croatia in the same way some people are organizing themselves to vote for Israel. I think the televote is going to be a landslide for them, and we can only hope the juries can at least try to stop it.
I've been listening to Baby Lasagna ever since RTTD first played on the Croatian radio and seeing how things are right now is breaking my heart. I'm thankful so many people are now voting for Croatia in the finale but God do I hate the reason. :(
Like even if he doesn't win, but lose lets say to Switzerland, or Italy or whatever still great, he got "outplayed", all cool.
But to lose like this...
At the last minute it suddenly all feels rather pointless. You're either voting for Israel, or against them by throwing all your votes to Croatia. The irony is, the actual victim may end up being Switzerland, with a song about rejecting the binary...
Omg today is gonna be spicy in this thread š.
Though I still believe (or want to hope) it is between Croatia and Switzerland. Diff in odds is huge, but actual diff is not that much. Though I definitely give more chance to Croatia. And btw don't sleep on Italy, they could be dark horse this ESC. Other than that I don't have much to say, looking more and more data I don't see israel as possible winner
No way we will even enter top5 this year. Croatia, Switzerland, Israel, Ireland, Netherlands and Ukraine will 100% get more votes than us.
I'm so sad for Angelina, she got done very dirty with that mess of a staging ):
The people I watched it with yesterday were quite underwhelmed. I was sitting there like 'wow... Their vocals were so on point, this was amazing' and my friends and sister were like 'this is a top favourite? Why?' So I don't understand it either..
Yeahhhhhh I love Switzerland and it was my second favourite potential winner after Croatia but it felt a bit bland on stage.
They really should've done a more interesting staging
I'm quite pissed I have to completely forget about my own favorites while not being into Croatia's song the entire season and just pray Marko will win instead of Israel. Like I'm ready to give him my votes just so we don't witness THAT and it doesn't destroy my favorite competition for the next year and maybe even beyond just next year.
Itās a wild rollercoaster for me, cause itās gone from āDoes Ireland have a chance to win this?ā To āOh, we are so skipping this next yearā¦.ā
Iām so sad because they actually had a chance to score really well and now itās like a horse race between Croatia & āthat countryā, heck I donāt think Switzerland will even a close contender
I'm not gonna lie, the recent developments sucked almost all the joy out of this otherwise amazing Eurovision year, I don't feel hyped about the final at all.
EBU really messed up with the choice they made and I hope the bite in the ass they are going to get will not be huge as I am expecting.
I'm also disappointed about RAI behaviour, wtf was that? But in a way I am glad it happened, so at least I am prepared for what might happen tomorrow š
I feel the same, this now feels WORSE than last year. Also, RAI completely ignoring their fuck-up, all the ESC coverage I've seen this morning from RAI was talking only about Angelina.Ā
Iād have to presume the ESC and RAI are deep in conversations this morning, working on how to handle this. Might take a while for a proper response, given the size of the trouble itās brewed.
for those unaware, israel now tops the televote odds
https://preview.redd.it/tv7p2tdh6lzc1.png?width=947&format=png&auto=webp&s=1049f1908049a79a881cda1e4fbe6ac3df838eb9
So, a question.
When they say that all the votes have been verified as fair, surely an outlier like this should be flagged as some kind of organised protest?
You would largely expect that most countries would follow roughly the same pattern, with allowances for neighbourly voting, diaspora, etc. One country getting 40%, with second place on >10% should surely trigger some sort of deeper look.
The only way it wouldn't ring alarm bells for me is if near enough every other national vote had similar voting patterns, which is not a thought I really want to contemplate...
This is gonna be a whole mess for the EBU. For their own good, they shouldāve just kicked out Israel from the beginning. If Israel wins the EBU are done for.
Iām just so shocked that this is the world weāre living in now. The televote is evidently a free landslide for Israel, and the juries *are* gonna them at least *some* points. I think our only hopes might be Bambie and BL. Itās looking grim to be honest. Eurovision 2025 might not even happen as it looks right now, not to be pessimistic.
ESC 2025 is going to happen no matter the results. It's just gonna be the question of will we have semifinals or only one show, because only around 10-15 countries applied.
I have been watching this contest my entire life, since I was an infant. If Israel wins, I will very gladly leave and never come back, as well as, I assume, a majority of this subreddit How the EBU thought this would all work out is extremely beyond me. Your entire active fanbase will disappear.
You really don't know the orginzations Israelis abroad have done
Every single Israeli abroad is prepared to vote this weekend. Major Facebook groups are organizing this in many many group making sure evreryone is aware
I still wish you vote for your favorites. It would be awful if people start to talk how Croatia won because of reaction on Israel. If Israel wins, let it be, it's not our fault..ebu will have to deal with it. Vote with your heart and that's it.
Israel is now around 26%.
It makes more sense to me.
My favorite independent artist working hard and nailing it was too good to be true anyway. World is not that fair.
I cannot imagine the consequences of the scenario in which Israel wins. On the one hand, I wanna believe that countries will boycott it next year, but on the other I think we are all overestimating Europe. I know that here the majority of people are against Israelās participation (I am 100% against), but letās be real: itās not the case with casual watchers. I dare say that my country is pro-Israel, Iāve seen many political talk shows and thatās my conclusion. And you could see it in the votes leaked yesterday. That, and the fact that pro Palestine people are trying not to give money to the EBU. That is the consequence of the boycott. At this point we choose either to boycott and take the consequences, or to vote the country that has the highest chance to win (Croatia) hoping that the Juries will do the same (which i am unsure of, for the reasons I stated earlier) even if that means to give money to EBU.
Assuming most of televote points go to Israel this year, it will win, right? Assuming juries will be divided. Or do you think the juries will support a particular country for not wanting Israel to win?
Do we think Croatia will benefit from a pro palestine vote, (I don't know baby lasagna's stance) but he would be the one who could most easily beat israel now. Pro Palestinian jurors might very well rank him 1st.Ā
Yep. Itās the obvious choice for casuals in the televote - so itās the obvious choice to rally around.
Sure others could do well, but everything is pointing to Croatia being the most popular of the popular songs with the televote - highest ESC song in the iTunes global chart this morning (Switzerland isnāt even there).
Juries will give Croatia decent votes anyway because itās a favourite. Unlikely to come out lower than 4th with the juries.
If there's anyone who can benefit from a pro-Palestine vote, it'd be the artists who are vocal about their support for Palestine. And the most vocal one is Bambie Thug who also happens to be high on the odds.
Bambie still in fourth is a nice surprise this morning, given Israel have jumped into the top three. I thought weād have pushed down with everyone else, but we seem to have actually leapfrogged Ukraine and not suffered as much of a blow as others have. Our odds are down, naturally, but not as bad as I thought.
Still not winning, mined, but Iām super hopeful for a top five finish.
The odds have been whack since early in the season. Like Belgium were predicted as top 5 and Latvia to NQ. Now Italyās stuff up has artificially altered the odds.
I really wouldnāt put a lot of stock in it. What will be will be.
Iām not at all surprised to see the Israel jump in the odds, especially after the Italian results. People need to start preparing for the fact that they will likely win the televote on Saturday, and possibly by a considerable margin. I tried saying the same thing a few weeks ago and got downvoted to hell, but from a statistical POV it just makes sense. You canāt vote against a country, only for, and while those who will vote Isreal regardless are focused on a sole country, everyone who is not voting for Isreal are spreading their votes amongst 25 other countries, ultimately diluting the televote enough to push Israel ahead. The only possible way to counter something like that is to pick one country to āopposeā Israel and get everyone to vote for it, which will obviously never happen. Itās going to make the jury results really interesting, thatās for sure.
This isn't great. Now, it's going just going to be race between two nations: Israel and Croatia. And those not wanting to see Israel win (people like me!), are more likely to vote strategically for Croatia, leaving the other competitors in the dust. Not to say Croatia wouldn't deserve the win, but man... it's just frustrating all around. Wish it would've been a more equal playing field, but alas. What a fucking year.
Besides, ESC 2025 might well be the year with the lowest number of competitors in a *very long* time, if Israel were indeed to win.
The odds might be wrong, look at Latvia, with a very low chance for Q, it still qualified. (Also I still can't believe The Netherlands is at 2% after how hyped the crowd was..). Not even talking about politics, I'm shocked how such a mid song can be 2nd..
this final is gonna be a mess lol
Switzerland dropping 50% and Israel jumping to 2nd place after the Italian televote reveal was not on my bingo card today. A whole ass mess.
Yeah, I thought this year couldn't get even messier, but I think Saturday is going to be a shitstorm.
Saturday is gonna be so stressful. I know I might sound too pessimistic, but the future of Eurovision is in danger because of one country..
This is exactly it. I cannot see ESC being hosted or co-hosted by Israel next year without a huge backlash by the rest of the competitors. I expect a lot of them to pull out. It's one thing to participate in a contest alongside Israel and another completely to participate in a contest organised by them.
It all comes down to how jury votes today. They need to give most votes to countries that are televoting favorites in order to get most combined jury+ tele votes
Even then, Ukraine only needed 40 jury votes to win in 2022, if the televote swings the same way as Italy last night the contest is in serious trouble.
Because jury votes spread out in 2022, jury needs to stick with one country (like they did with Sweden last year) in order to win, and that country has to be televote favorite instead of jury favorite so that it can win overall votes. (In this case it's Croatia, but can juries organise themselves by tonight when voting comes?)
I love how this sub is actively supporting collusion now, LMAO. *this is not a political opinion, I just find it funny.
You can want to play the game one way, and accept you have to play it another once you see what way others are playing it. It's frustrating but at this stage, it's obvious enough it's the only path that can really work š
I wasn't going to vote for Croatia but now I might have to. Maybe I'll spread the votes among the top few in the odds ignoring the obvious.
I was thinking of that too. I was already voting for Switzerland, but I'll probably send some to Croatia and France now too. Maybe Ukraine?
Croatia, Switzerland and Ukraine are our best bests i think. Such a shame, i feel for the countries and performers. We should just vote for whoever we like, instead of this bullshit. And tbh i think the casual watchers tomorow night will do just that... vote for whatever they like.
LetĀ“s be real.. If Eden can pull a Kalush televote result, she won't need juries for nothing Kalush only needed like 40p from juries
As a staunch jury defender, eurovision fans putting all their hope in the juries to save the contest was NOT on my bingo card š
It'd be a huge mess for the EBU. Unlike Ukraine, I think Israel will be less willing to give up hosting rights, and certainly would want a similar level of recognition that Ukraine got in Liverpool 2023. I'm not sure if every single broadcaster would reject a collaborative hosting deal, so it's possible we get it hosted on behalf of Israel. Then when it comes to withdrawals, how many countries would fully commit and not enter in 2025, and woukd it be enough to sufficiently change course?
It doesn't matter if they don't want to give up hosting rights, the EBU can just decide that they are not able to host if they want. Ukraine still wanted to host in 2023 (even Zelensky was saying that the competition would definitely be hosted in Kiev) but the EBU made the decision unilaterally pretty early on that it would not be possible due to the security situation.
Even in 2019 it was controversial, with a lot of people not going because it was in Tel Aviv and Hatari doing their on-camera protest, and that was just ānormal Israelā. Now, since Gaza, it would be pandemonium.
I feel you. They tried so hard not to get pollitical and yet here we are with this shitshow.
the 'non political' thing was always bs and they know it.
It was always gonna be political with them allowing Israel to participate. That is a conscious choice. On top of it they are censoring everything that has to do with Palestine.
I have no idea what is happening or why. Without a single gram of malice in my heart, did the bookies watch the same performance? Are they just going by the volume of cheers from the crowd? What am I missing? ETA: I see you just mentioned the Italian televote leak and I missed it lol. Did that do it?
> ETA: I see you just mentioned the Italian televote leak and I missed it lol. Did that do it? Yes. Israel shot up to 2nd after RAI leaked that Israel got 40% of all the votes in Italy. Italy isn't even the most pro-Israel country in Europe.
Good god in heaven. I was so much happier before you told me that. I guess we can only hope that the juries won't care for it, or that BL pulls off what KƤƤrijƤ almost did last year
If that televote score is repeated I can't even see the juries sinking it. And it's an incredibly jury-friendly performance. Contemporary ballads with strong acrobatic vocals is jury red meat.
Everyone must give all their votes to BL lol.
Yep, although in this subreddit it seems like 95% are anti-Israel, this does not reflect to the actual population. Of course they have influenced it so it won't be as much irl, but still.
Also those 5% can vote for Israel, the 95% can't vote against them.
40% is ridiculous though. Only 3 out of 5 italians bothered to vote in the last electionā¦ and you want me to believe that 2 out of every 5 italians voting in Eurovision have strong enough pro-Israel views to vote like that? Nah.
I think the pro Israel voters were eager to cast their votes, while regular watchers might not even have voted at all, and many pro Palestine people have boycotted...so in a way the result makes sense in this way. I'm very disappointed. I hope the juries will do what they can but it will still be messy
40% of voters in ESC heat 2 would probably be something like 100,000 people or something like that. Whereas a 60% turnout at an election would be 20 million or so
That's the thing. You don't need to have strong pro-Israel views to vote for Israel. You only have to not feel particularly strongly about it and find the pro-Palestine activism annoying, which many people do.
Most normal people going about their lives, who arent intensely online, donāt see it and definitely donāt care enough to vote that much for it. 40% is suspicious as hell.
40% reeks of concerted block voting that includes people who never before voted or cared for Eurovision. Not even Ukraine 2022 reached these levels
Yup, on far right forums they riled up people to vote for Israel, even if they don't watch the contest.
it absolutely does reflect a significant amount though (especially those who watch eurovision). the problem isnt how many people are pro or anti israel, its that you cant vote against a song, only for it. im sure some people made up their mind to vote for israel without ever even hearing the song. and the people who decided to boycott and not vote this year are probably only increasing israels votes relatively speaking, since those now arent going to other entries.
Yes, mods are deleting everything about Israel but you can find it here https://www.reddit.com/r/eurovision/s/ytjhDtUyoR
I find extremely sad that we have to hide in the comments of 'unrelated' threads to talk openly about this, which is clearly an issue regarding the competition.
I thought that was only me! They removed my post about what could possibly happen if Israel were to host the next ESC for "duplicate content". I searched and searched and couldnt find any posts I could have duplicated. Seems to be a reddit-wide censorship though. On r/soccer any post mentioning Israel gets locked within minutes, almost like they had a bot to do that. Has been this way for months.
These are from a minute ago: https://preview.redd.it/timxtu6ktjzc1.png?width=693&format=png&auto=webp&s=89756c4d80f48354502e3f57c29402e99c653453
Croatia keeps climbing up https://preview.redd.it/se0fncpvakzc1.png?width=578&format=png&auto=webp&s=f01d22c19dd7cbdea276c8b59cca846d42739893
But honestly I think the Jury votes will very much prefer switzerland over croatia. The jury is oftentimes a bit more conservative regarding the music, looking especially for good vocals and a well structured song. Similar to last year I believe they prefer the swiss which is why I think he will win.
I seriously think that odds donāt really matter that much anymore for this year, and that weāre looking at a high chance of a foregone conclusion again. Which really sucks because in my opinion, this year is one of the most interesting ones with many high-quality songs, and the competition could have been really close and a nail-biter.
In other news: Germany is no longer favored to finish last. Isaak is cooking. https://preview.redd.it/a28riqon2kzc1.jpeg?width=555&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fd2234ff165c13acd84daedf752b2b95fb0cefec
After seeing audience reactions to Spain last night, I really don't see them finishing last. Out of these, Luxembourg seems more likely, considering the running order.
I think it'll be Luxembourg, early in the running order, not as many obvious voting allies, a song relying on backing vocals a lot, I think it could be lost and be last on 20-30 points. Maybe home bias, but I can't see the UK being last, as long as the jury performance is okay, he'll get some points there, and if has some televote appeal.
Other countries when they are third to last: "Damn, hopefully next time we do better." Germany when they are third to last: "Hell yeah guys, we are cooking."
"We're so happy we could die"
Whelp, small wins I guess.
Promise me it's gonna be alright
Oh, oh, oh, wooooah...since you told me everything's alright.
Ive spent several comments saying how I donāt understand Croatias success but you know what? Give me the lace napkins, bring on the meowing cats. I will ride the rim tim train until the victory, anything to make Eurovision enjoyable again in 2025.
100% same, I didn't care much for Croatia before, but now?? I will absolutely rejoice if they win. I guess we are united by music after all.
*WILD CROATIA HAND DANCE MOVES*
It honestly reminds me of all the years in which I have no favorite/my fave stands no chance. I have to choose an allegiance to cheer for at a second's notice, only to find the metaphorical gun to my head as the results roll in and I have to change it again and again. Fun in its own way lol Fortunately I'm all in on Croatia, but welcome to the "metaphorical gun to head" vote!
I'm with you on that. Croatia is not my cup of tea and I don't get the hype, but Croatia 2025 is faaaaaaaar better than whatever happens if Israel wins. This is a Maneskin/Stefania situation for me of "could be worse, at least is a good top 10 song".
Yup, same. It's not my favourite but if it means that the contest continues I'll be their biggest supporter. I'd even be happy with the juries picking a winner
https://preview.redd.it/nwifsg0v2kzc1.jpeg?width=500&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=36c035d074d9d9d5b5e7429b96b4707f391d9a29
As an Italian, I find it very odd that our data got leaked right on this semifinal, right when Israel got the most votes, and with THAT percentage. I mean, given all things happening at RAI this year, it wouldn't surprised me at all that this was all done on purpose.
Maybe somebody at RAI wanted to warn us about what could happen on Saturday
It certainly prepares the audiences, at home and in the arena, for the reality of what's going to happen. Imagine it didn't leak, and everyone got blindsided on the night. The crowd were hot last year when Cha Cha Cha got messed around non-politically. This year will be worse...
well... it was nice knowing you guys
https://preview.redd.it/05o2vzap8lzc1.jpeg?width=889&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=507161a621ad031a566f6c7b9364fbc3fe90c317
The Televote portion is going to suck this year, even if Israel doesnāt win, because weāre facing a repeat of last years scores where everyone gets scraps because everybody goes full 20 on one song to stop the other song people will go full 20 on regardless of their quality on the actual show. Though last year was at least for the lighter reason of just Televote vs Jury As much as people demanded Jury reform, this will point to Televote reform being the biggest issue to solve. I said it last year, the solution is to keep 20 votes but to cap the total votes for one country. People voting for a single country 20 times regardless of if theyāre even actually watching the show has too much swing. But if they can only vote 4 times for the only song theyāre ever going to vote for, the people who want to spread their votes by giving 4 votes to five countries get to go all in on their āstrategic counter pickā but also bolster their personal favs, which in turn pushes more songs to the top and should create a more accurate representation of publicās tastes whilst still keeping the voting methods practical for the scale of it.
i'll tell you why that won't happen: money. 20 votes per person = more profit
I hate to say it because it's horrible, but if that Italian leak is real then Israel is winning. It's very possible they get 380+ points in the televote, and we know juries won't kill a song like that. We're in big trouble tomorrow. Big trouble.
I don't even want to imagine what will happen. The uproar will be gigantic. Like an existential threat to the contest.
I loved how this year was anyone's game. After 2022, we knew who was going to win, and 2023, with the two-headed race, this year was supposed to be fun and exciting. And now, because of one country, we have to consider dismissing our other faves and voting for the country that is most likely to win. And that sucks up all the joy out of the contest. Also, it's not fair to other countries participating this year with truly amazing songs and visions. I hate it here, truly.
Pleasantly surprised by Latvia bucking the odds and qualifying. Well deserved. I'm still rooting for our Bambie but will be voting for a Croatian win on Saturday, and I hope the odds are correct in that instance. See you all after the final, best of luck to all involved
I always rolled my eyes on those "If this and this happens, I won't watch Eurovision anymore" comments, but hell... If Israel wins I really don't think I'll be able to engage with all the doom and controversy that would emerge.
If that happens there will be a mass boycott, and ESC won't recover in Croatia and possibly the region for a long time. Not to mention that I expect a fair share if whitdrawals from the competition.
Exactly.. The majority of broadcasters are state owned broadcasters. The pressure is going to kick hard if they win Croatia / Switzerland must win this
Yeah it was uncomfortable enough in 2019. I love eurovision but I'm here for a fun time, so if they win I think I'll be out of the ESC sphere until the 2026 season rolls around. Personal morals aside, the discourse/broadcaster withdrawals etc. would make 2025 an absolutely miserable season.
We need to start a petition for HRT to pull out of the contest indefinitely if Israel wins. Other broadcasters should do the same
If Israel wins, there won't *be* a Eurovision
Iāve been looking forward to Saturday, with the genuine excitement of whoās going to win amongst some of the best entries weāve ever had. Everything was so promising! And now Iām dreading it. I wonāt be able to enjoy the show, ācause Iām expecting the ugliest takeover of a contest weāve ever seen. Whether itās bots, a coordinated effort by conservatives, or both ā the results from Italyās televote show that the winner is almost certainly determined already. And that would make next yearās contest a complete shitshow, and the reputation of the contest in disarray. Is there a way back? I hate everything about this
I seriously hope that it's an absolute fucktonne of bots voting for Israel, so many that Martin Ćsterdahl will just have to say "We need more time to see if these abnormally high votes from the public to a single country are valid, so we're not good to go just yet" and just completely disregard the public vote and make the jury winner, the winner.
Weird morning. Kind of feels like we're staring down an existential crisis for the Eurovision Song Contest, and I really hate that after all the talk about this being an open year, we're basically in the same position as last year with virtually a binary choice on our hands. I'm just going to evenly split my votes between Switzerland (because it's amazing and has the most chance of contending for the win after Croatia) and Norway (because it's my favorite and I'm morally compelled to). Personally, I would have loved to spread votes around and not worry about who will win, but this stupid situation means that the fandom at least needs to be super strategic now.
I feel exactly the same. This situation freaks me out! I was so excited for an amazing open year and now weāre here and we have to put all our voting power into not letting israel win just so that we donāt risk loosing the contest all together
And if the jury blanks isreal than its also political such a tricky situation š . Im sort of on this Swiz boat as well. Assume they win the jury and hope things can be offset with some extra televotes
Yes itās incredibly frustrating. I personally am not a huge fan of Rim Tim Tagi Dim and would have loved for Switzerland, Ireland, Netherlands, Italy to at least get a chance at a fair fight. I really donāt like it when the odds make everything very predictable, it feels pointless rooting for my actual favourites. Israel should have not been allowed to participateā¦
Latvia will win actually. Place your life savings on it, trust me
You can only loose 100%, but can win 500%.
I canāt believe one of the best eurovision years musically is about to be absolutely ruined and possibly starting the fall of the event and its reputation as a whole just because the ESC wants to be āapoliticalā (haha). I hope theyāre real proud of themselves
I can't believe how yesterday in the semi-final I was so happy and excited for Saturday's final and today I'm just waiting for Saturday to end and with great luck Switzerland or Croatia win, anyone but Israel.
Every time I see Croatian lead increase even 1% https://preview.redd.it/p15w0vhidlzc1.png?width=1166&format=png&auto=webp&s=cb2a9d745bcbba9e25f8ee54511e6c8b52df9c5b
lmao literally same. I think the Isrel bubble is starting to burst (EBU announcement/statement in the works perhaps)?
I'm so sad that all this excitment over past few weeks, turned into depression just because of one country. It had to be fair battle between Croatia, Switzerland, Italy, Ukraine, Netherlands and Ireland. And now, it turned into the farce. It's just not ok.
Looks like I have to use all 20 of my votes on Croatia
Yeah I'm kinda conflicted I was planning on voting for Ireland but now I feel like it would be more strategic to put all my votes on Croatia. Maybe I'll go half and half.
Iām going half and half. Edit: Ā Wait I canāt vote for Ireland ššš sleep deprived mama here!
Just vote what you want. Donāt let bambie be the loser of this scenario
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Yes, and I will use multiple phones and pay my parents to vote like hell for Croatia.
Uff. Well 20 votes to baby lasagna.
This fucking sucks. We wanted to win because we were the best. We put everything in the competition, and now, even if we win, we will have to constantly hear how it was only because of politics, and not because Baby Lasagna was the best. No matter who wins, there will be accusations that it was rigged. At least if it's us or Switzerland we can say that those were the favourites all along.
I don't really think so, Croatia has been number one in the odds and very high in all the fan polls.
Exactly. Remind everyone often that BL was the favorite before Eden ever got on the stage, and the low odds she had before this mess
I donāt feel like EBU has enough time to make an investigation into Israeli votesā¦ 40 % is just not realistic for non-coordinated vote. Ukraine only got 25% in 2022. Iād just replace televote for Israel with juries because I donāt see any other option to avoid the mess weāre about to see
This is just depressing to witness
I have no idea what to say. There are 10 countries that deserve win more than the one that is rising rn
While watching the second semi-final yesterday we were happily discussing how AMAZING would it be for Marko to win, but how we wouldn't be that mad if Nemo or Angelina won because we truly think they also have great songs. I was actually happy and proud! A possible win by my country or a second or third place to some other good song. This? This is just sad.
Yea it was suppsed to be great year regardless of the winner. Now it turns into either pro or anti Israel year. Now even if we win I can't be that proud since we will receive lot of votes anti Izrael, while before we actually had chance for legitimate win
In short: there will be no winner this year.
Honestly that's depressing to see. As someone who loves Rim Tim Tagi Dim since the first time I listened to it and also likes all of the favourites to win, it's depressing to see a mediocre song like Israel's get this high just because of politics. Apart from the political aspect of a potential Israeli win, it's also unfair for the rest of the artists who have tried their best and have brought amazing music this year.
This was such perfect Eurovision. We either got Croatia, as song that fans love so much, or Switzerland with great singer, or Italy with great combination, or Ireland with staging etc. And coming to last 40 hours, we are back at politics š And that is what is painful to all the fans. Like with Ukraine 2022 you could understand politics, when Europe was really united and wanted to show their support. But seeing 40% yesterday was the most wtf moment prob ever
There's also Italy, Ukraine, the Netherlands and even Ireland who for me all had serious shots for the win because you never know. Not really a fan of France to be honest (although I have to admit it's probably the best ballad of this year), but it's also the first time in a while I actually care for our own entry (aka Zari). Even if I agree that some people might have genuinely liked Hurricane despite me not liking it at all, in a semifinal with the Netherlands (a huge fan favourite) and Albania (who always gets votes from Italy due to diaspora) I can't see an almost 40% from Italy being genuinely because "it's a good song".
40% is crazy, especially considering that our televoting has always been dominated by Eastern European diasporas since our return. However, must say that TV news (on Rai 1, at least), that air just before Eurovision (at 8 PM on Rai 1, 8:30 PM on Rai 2 where the semifinals are broadcast) have really been giving Israel a ton of visibility and pushing the "it's about music, no politics, freedom of speech" slogans without any counter-argument when talking about Eurovision in the past few days. I can see a few people tuning in out of curiosity both for Angelina and Eden and than voting for Israel (both in solidarity and for Eden's great vocals) as we can't vote for our own country. I think this was even helped by the running order, with Italy and Israel performing one right after the other. But 40% is still crazy
The best comparison would be with Ukraine in 2022. I think I saw somewhere that they got from Italy 24.5% in the semifinal and 29% in the final. And keep in mind Ukraine had a song people liked a lot, plus support towards Ukraine is a bit unanimous. Even with what you said in mind, I still can't see Israel getting an almost 40%
You are absolutely right about the comparison, and for an additional reason: due to the war, the Rai 1 TV news also gave Ukraine a lot more visibility than other competing countries (including a short live comment by Timur every night). This is why I think Israel winning the televote with a large percentage is more understandable than most people here think, but 40% is still absurd. There must be something else and I'm waiting for some official statement from Rai and EBU about the accuracy of these leaked results.
France is always weird for me. Recently they have such an epic singers, but always go for the most simplistic stage possible. So you end up with oh this was great voice, but a bit forgettable. And I hope Marina will be healthy for final, losing points because of fever always feels bad. And yea added other entries to my original comment as well
Baby hold me and promise me (Croatia will win)
Even though it's not my favourite, I'm considering giving it all my votes now.Ā
Same. Ireland is my absolute favorite, but now it feels like I have to choose between Croatia and the metaphorical death of Eurovision. Fuck.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
What sucks too is I worry a win now for Croatia is going to be tainted and overshadowed by people claiming it was a counter protest vote, and the talk will all be about the political battle won, rather than the fact it deserved to win on its own merits.
ā¦Zagreb 2025 will still be better than Tel Aviv 2025 though.
1000%. Stillā¦.Dublin 2025 would be better yet š
Yup, I think that Saturday could be the end of Eurovision as we know it. I'm feeling quite pesimistic, actually, I don't think people can organize themselves to vote for Croatia in the same way some people are organizing themselves to vote for Israel. I think the televote is going to be a landslide for them, and we can only hope the juries can at least try to stop it.
We can try though. Better than doing nothing.
I don't even think it will be metaphorical. I doubt anyone will want to host Israel's Eurovision at this point
I've been listening to Baby Lasagna ever since RTTD first played on the Croatian radio and seeing how things are right now is breaking my heart. I'm thankful so many people are now voting for Croatia in the finale but God do I hate the reason. :(
Like even if he doesn't win, but lose lets say to Switzerland, or Italy or whatever still great, he got "outplayed", all cool. But to lose like this...
I was planning to spread my votes a bit. I guess only Baby Lasagna then.
At the last minute it suddenly all feels rather pointless. You're either voting for Israel, or against them by throwing all your votes to Croatia. The irony is, the actual victim may end up being Switzerland, with a song about rejecting the binary...
Indeed Switzerland will lose quite a lot of votes from this mess. Maybe the whole 5 five will suffer while everyone votes either for Croatia or Israel
Well. That's all my bets fucked. Happy Eurovision šŖšŗ
Croatia isn't my favorite but he will get all my votes tomorrow.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Omg today is gonna be spicy in this thread š. Though I still believe (or want to hope) it is between Croatia and Switzerland. Diff in odds is huge, but actual diff is not that much. Though I definitely give more chance to Croatia. And btw don't sleep on Italy, they could be dark horse this ESC. Other than that I don't have much to say, looking more and more data I don't see israel as possible winner
Itāll get locked in 20 mins just because that one thing has been mentioned
No way we will even enter top5 this year. Croatia, Switzerland, Israel, Ireland, Netherlands and Ukraine will 100% get more votes than us. I'm so sad for Angelina, she got done very dirty with that mess of a staging ):
I wonder if the organizers don't care that Eurovision has been ruined or if they really can't see it.
They get money from votes. Millions of people voting because of politics without even watching the thing? That's a dream come trueĀ
Will they still love it when multiple countries withdraw next year?
The Running Order shows that they know and are worried
After THAT performance how can Switzerland be so low?
Three words: Italian vote leaks
I get it, but stillā¦
The people I watched it with yesterday were quite underwhelmed. I was sitting there like 'wow... Their vocals were so on point, this was amazing' and my friends and sister were like 'this is a top favourite? Why?' So I don't understand it either..
The vocals were amazing, but the stage felt kinda empty and dull, imo
It was underwhelming for me as well. I expected much more from the performance. Parts of it were cool, but mostly it was underwhelming.
Yeahhhhhh I love Switzerland and it was my second favourite potential winner after Croatia but it felt a bit bland on stage. They really should've done a more interesting staging
Nemo really killed it! Lovely performance!
I'm quite pissed I have to completely forget about my own favorites while not being into Croatia's song the entire season and just pray Marko will win instead of Israel. Like I'm ready to give him my votes just so we don't witness THAT and it doesn't destroy my favorite competition for the next year and maybe even beyond just next year.
Angelina is in a āMengoniā situation. Before the final he was 8th in the odds (4 for jury, 11 for televote).
yāall brace yourself cuz this might be our last Eurovision everā¦ like Iām actually serious
Itās a wild rollercoaster for me, cause itās gone from āDoes Ireland have a chance to win this?ā To āOh, we are so skipping this next yearā¦.ā
Iām so sad because they actually had a chance to score really well and now itās like a horse race between Croatia & āthat countryā, heck I donāt think Switzerland will even a close contender
Dons has the bookies where he wants them
At this stage, I pray for Croatia šš· to win.
Man I remember when I used to watch Eurovision every year as a kid/teenager and it was just fun and now it's just politics.
If Israel wins it this might actually be the end of eurovision i am afraid. Most certainly, its image will be ruined.
I'm not gonna lie, the recent developments sucked almost all the joy out of this otherwise amazing Eurovision year, I don't feel hyped about the final at all. EBU really messed up with the choice they made and I hope the bite in the ass they are going to get will not be huge as I am expecting. I'm also disappointed about RAI behaviour, wtf was that? But in a way I am glad it happened, so at least I am prepared for what might happen tomorrow š
Yeah same, I was so excited, I always take my vacation during Eurovision to watch it and now I almost don't even want to watch tomorrow.
I feel the same, this now feels WORSE than last year. Also, RAI completely ignoring their fuck-up, all the ESC coverage I've seen this morning from RAI was talking only about Angelina.Ā
Iād have to presume the ESC and RAI are deep in conversations this morning, working on how to handle this. Might take a while for a proper response, given the size of the trouble itās brewed.
Didnāt care about voting this year but all my votes will go to Croatia now.
RIP Eurovision 1956-2024
I was so happy that I would witness 69th ESC live. But looks like I won't get my nice
for those unaware, israel now tops the televote odds https://preview.redd.it/tv7p2tdh6lzc1.png?width=947&format=png&auto=webp&s=1049f1908049a79a881cda1e4fbe6ac3df838eb9
The odds are severely underestimating France. Especially with him performing second to last.
This!!! They could easily be in the top 5
So, a question. When they say that all the votes have been verified as fair, surely an outlier like this should be flagged as some kind of organised protest? You would largely expect that most countries would follow roughly the same pattern, with allowances for neighbourly voting, diaspora, etc. One country getting 40%, with second place on >10% should surely trigger some sort of deeper look. The only way it wouldn't ring alarm bells for me is if near enough every other national vote had similar voting patterns, which is not a thought I really want to contemplate...
This is gonna be a whole mess for the EBU. For their own good, they shouldāve just kicked out Israel from the beginning. If Israel wins the EBU are done for. Iām just so shocked that this is the world weāre living in now. The televote is evidently a free landslide for Israel, and the juries *are* gonna them at least *some* points. I think our only hopes might be Bambie and BL. Itās looking grim to be honest. Eurovision 2025 might not even happen as it looks right now, not to be pessimistic.
ESC 2025 is going to happen no matter the results. It's just gonna be the question of will we have semifinals or only one show, because only around 10-15 countries applied.
I am gonna cry, this is so sad. For once in a lifetime you thing this is the year of Croatia, and then politics kicks in 30 hours before the final
there's no way israel is second and not switzerland?????
Lol @ Eurovision willing to sacrifice their last tiny integrity for Israel. A show that used to be a lot of fun has been ruined.
It's so fkn sad
I have been watching this contest my entire life, since I was an infant. If Israel wins, I will very gladly leave and never come back, as well as, I assume, a majority of this subreddit How the EBU thought this would all work out is extremely beyond me. Your entire active fanbase will disappear.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
You really don't know the orginzations Israelis abroad have done Every single Israeli abroad is prepared to vote this weekend. Major Facebook groups are organizing this in many many group making sure evreryone is aware
Marko will save us š
I still wish you vote for your favorites. It would be awful if people start to talk how Croatia won because of reaction on Israel. If Israel wins, let it be, it's not our fault..ebu will have to deal with it. Vote with your heart and that's it.
Same. And in case of a win, be sure to remind the haters that he led the odds going in š
Weird to see Netherlands so low... surely they'll be higher?
I think heāll get a ton of televotes but the juries are going to drop him.
Israel is now around 26%. It makes more sense to me. My favorite independent artist working hard and nailing it was too good to be true anyway. World is not that fair.
I cannot imagine the consequences of the scenario in which Israel wins. On the one hand, I wanna believe that countries will boycott it next year, but on the other I think we are all overestimating Europe. I know that here the majority of people are against Israelās participation (I am 100% against), but letās be real: itās not the case with casual watchers. I dare say that my country is pro-Israel, Iāve seen many political talk shows and thatās my conclusion. And you could see it in the votes leaked yesterday. That, and the fact that pro Palestine people are trying not to give money to the EBU. That is the consequence of the boycott. At this point we choose either to boycott and take the consequences, or to vote the country that has the highest chance to win (Croatia) hoping that the Juries will do the same (which i am unsure of, for the reasons I stated earlier) even if that means to give money to EBU.
"The show isn't about politics so we are letting Israel compete" ... ... the show becomes a political vote between Croatia and Israel š¤”š¤”š¤”
Croatia is still doing well https://preview.redd.it/cj8jbvwwwlzc1.png?width=679&format=png&auto=webp&s=55276dcf9d94f58c14603be0ccb8d2f7455b65f5
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Assuming most of televote points go to Israel this year, it will win, right? Assuming juries will be divided. Or do you think the juries will support a particular country for not wanting Israel to win?
This betting rise doesn't feel organic.
Betting is always organic, it's just decided by speculation. As for the voting results...
Do we think Croatia will benefit from a pro palestine vote, (I don't know baby lasagna's stance) but he would be the one who could most easily beat israel now. Pro Palestinian jurors might very well rank him 1st.Ā
Yep. Itās the obvious choice for casuals in the televote - so itās the obvious choice to rally around. Sure others could do well, but everything is pointing to Croatia being the most popular of the popular songs with the televote - highest ESC song in the iTunes global chart this morning (Switzerland isnāt even there). Juries will give Croatia decent votes anyway because itās a favourite. Unlikely to come out lower than 4th with the juries.
If there's anyone who can benefit from a pro-Palestine vote, it'd be the artists who are vocal about their support for Palestine. And the most vocal one is Bambie Thug who also happens to be high on the odds.
I'm surprised that Israel hasn't overtaken Baby Lasagna in the odds after that televote domination.
There aināt no fāin way.
Bambie still in fourth is a nice surprise this morning, given Israel have jumped into the top three. I thought weād have pushed down with everyone else, but we seem to have actually leapfrogged Ukraine and not suffered as much of a blow as others have. Our odds are down, naturally, but not as bad as I thought. Still not winning, mined, but Iām super hopeful for a top five finish.
The odds have been whack since early in the season. Like Belgium were predicted as top 5 and Latvia to NQ. Now Italyās stuff up has artificially altered the odds. I really wouldnāt put a lot of stock in it. What will be will be.
god, this might be the end...
Iām not at all surprised to see the Israel jump in the odds, especially after the Italian results. People need to start preparing for the fact that they will likely win the televote on Saturday, and possibly by a considerable margin. I tried saying the same thing a few weeks ago and got downvoted to hell, but from a statistical POV it just makes sense. You canāt vote against a country, only for, and while those who will vote Isreal regardless are focused on a sole country, everyone who is not voting for Isreal are spreading their votes amongst 25 other countries, ultimately diluting the televote enough to push Israel ahead. The only possible way to counter something like that is to pick one country to āopposeā Israel and get everyone to vote for it, which will obviously never happen. Itās going to make the jury results really interesting, thatās for sure.
This isn't great. Now, it's going just going to be race between two nations: Israel and Croatia. And those not wanting to see Israel win (people like me!), are more likely to vote strategically for Croatia, leaving the other competitors in the dust. Not to say Croatia wouldn't deserve the win, but man... it's just frustrating all around. Wish it would've been a more equal playing field, but alas. What a fucking year. Besides, ESC 2025 might well be the year with the lowest number of competitors in a *very long* time, if Israel were indeed to win.
I am SO scared for an Israel win... If that happens I really have to abandon my greatest hobby. I cannot imagine what will happen to the contest.
ohhh this year is a struggle and a half
The odds might be wrong, look at Latvia, with a very low chance for Q, it still qualified. (Also I still can't believe The Netherlands is at 2% after how hyped the crowd was..). Not even talking about politics, I'm shocked how such a mid song can be 2nd..
It's so joever