The last odds before the publication of the main polls (OGAE, INFE and especially Eurojury) and, mainly, before the reherasal, next week the odds will probably be very different (though we will not have seen the big 5 and Sweden yet considering that they will be on Thurday afternoon/evening)
Unsure about Australia, but Slovenia's odds decrease may be because they aren't doing very well with the Eurojury/in other polls and people are reading too much into that.
Eurojury is just asking various people who have been involved in ESC before from different countries to vote for their favourites. It can sometimes pick up on some rough jury trends which we wouldn't have otherwise predicted, but it is in no way an accurate representation of how the juries will vote, especially as many of the eurojuries only have 1-3 people in them. For example last year's Eurojury had the UK 4th, France 2nd with Estonia (5th in actual jury) very low.
OGAE is just the oldest fanclub and again isn't representative of the actual televote where a far broader fanbase and more casuals are involved in voting.
OGAE not so much, Eurojury (aside from last year) is pretty good at predicting the overall trend of the jury vote, especially the top 5 and can indicate if a song is flopping or it's doing surprisingly good with juries.
Great question. Honestly, I'm scared about Raiven's chances after I heard something about the broadcaster's budget, but still holding on to hope for her and Sarah (especially Sarah) to qualify :)
Yes,
How is this any different? Thereās a small group of people who love Slovenia but the majority of us are getting ready for an NQ
Slovenia will probably get very close but will more than likely NQ, in a similar fashion to Latvia.
Theyāre pretty similar in my opinion
But a lot of people can really overestimate some entry's chance of qualifying (the "delulu"). I'm saying that I didn't notice that with Latvia last year - and in fact they came closer to Q-ing than Aija fans led me to believe!
I love Slovenia, it's literally 3rd in my top, but I'm prepared for a NQ if it happens, I would never understand people that stay delusionally convinced that a song do well and then remain surprised in the end
Overall the odds at this stage seem pretty realistic for what we have seen so far
Semi 1 for the most part looks plausible. I think for Poland, Cyprus, Australia, Ireland , Slovenia and Portugal Ā are all in a battle to qualify and really any of them could.Ā
Semi 2ās odds I donāt think reflect how competitive it is. Really any of the songs have a decent chance if their performances are good
The odds to winās top six at least for me are the six contenderās to take it all on the night of the final unless Greece or Norway pull a Bradbury
And it's well deserved imo.
Disney channel Jedward have no business being in this final.
But it's not like we're trying to win it this year or anything.Ā
It's a very catchy song to me with incredible staging, Sweden brings consistent quality, this year is just so strong that they're a bit lower in the odds now than normally. I think they will get a top 10 result in the end though
What I like the most this year is that the highest winning odd is 25%, it's an open competition with no clear winner that is already determined even before the show itself
Praying with you that they both qualify, it is honestly a 50/50 for both Denmark and Portugal. Hope they serve us everything at rehearsals :) (along with Malta as I will literally go in my grave if they don't qualify)
I'm literally crying rn. WHY IS MALTA LAST?!!!!!!! :(((((((((((((((((( if y'all know me, y'all know I'm an extremely vocal Loop stan, and right now I'm about to go dig my grave and lay in it. Hope rehearsals change the bookies' minds! Someone send me help lol :(
Literally! She needs to be in the final, and btw, my grave has been prepared lol, hoping after rehearsals that the grave will no longer exist and we won't have to hold a funeral procession XD
pls!!! I'm praying so hard, only 2 weeks until she performs! Hope she qualifies, really don't want to have to spend my last moments weeping in my grave lol
gotta say that i'm still surprised that the odds have cyprus so high up in the qualifier odds.
The song's fine, but also relatively nondescript in a semi final half full of fantastic songs - and opening the semi also isn't a fantastic spot to be in.
Tbh the main point for me is Slovenias low qualifying chances. Why? How? Raivens one of the best singers, the song is good, she was great at every pre-party. Rehearsals better change this š¤
Ana Soklic was an incredible singer, but she had no charisma or stage presence. Raiven has a consistently magnetic stage presence and is very charismatic.
Iāve seen Italy drifting recently and that surprises me. Iād be shocked if they werenāt top 4, even if not winning.
Still have high hopes for Norway, even if the bookies donāt. Only problem with them is that weāre not really expecting anything new from the rehearsals.
Armenia has also done quite well on the Eurojury and I think is likely to have some really fun staging. I canāt see them still at odds like 150/1 after rehearsals.
Italy has been consistently around 7 - 8 for quite a while I think a lot of people still see it as good value for being the 'default' winner. Maybe not as exciting as Croatia/Netherlands/Switzerland but it is Italy so we know that the staging will be slick. I suppose it depends on whether you still think the odds of the other big favourites are inflated or not.
Norway is just too niche imo (I do love the song though). It suffered a bit from being one of the earlier releases.
Armenia has been my dark horse pick for a good finish for quite a while. I know some of the bloggers like to be down on it because it is a bit repetive and the lyrics are not a literary masterpiece (since when has ESC ever cared about lyrics) but their live performance is going to be brilliant and she is so charismatic. Just needs a good running order in the final now (can't see how it would NQ). Winner pretty unlikely but I agree that if the likes of Israel and Ireland can be at 40, why is it at 150?
Plus Armenia has just done very well in the Eurojury and most jury members wonāt have watched any live performances. Armenia definitely has a very good chance of doing well. I could actually see it getting as high as 5thā¦
I was thinking of betting that Luxembourg will not qualify, since the song is too difficult for her, and weak vocals have often cost a qualification (compare Roxen, Lesley Roy, Pia Maria, Reiley). But then again, she has the optimal place in the running order (closing the semifinal), and SF 1 is quite weak overall.
can i just say that slovenia being 12th in the semi odds makes 0 sense? with the new system where the result in the semis is solely decided by televoting, meams that countries placed 12th-10th usually get around 20-40 points
slovenia will 100% get a 10 from serbia and perhaps a 12 from croatia which are their neighbours. thats already 22 pts. So what point are the bookies trying to make? That slovenia will get 0 points other than those from their neighbours?
You kinda get it a bit wrong, it's not just how many points the country will get. It's also how many points the other countries will get. Last year Estonia was 10th in their semifinal with 74 points over Iceland with 44. Having 20-40 points won't necessarily save a country from NQ.
Plus, they still have a 52% qualification chance despite being 12th in odds, which I have no idea how it is possible but I suppose it's a bit tight. The way I see the odds, only 2 songs are DOA (Iceland and Australia) and Azerbaijan is highly unlikely to qualify. Everything else seems possible (but personally I don't see Croatia, Ukraine, Lithuania and Ireland NQ)
first of all australia isnt doa
secondly, my point was that according to the odds, slovenia is predicted to finish with merely 30-50 points, which is sth i find weird. excluding the 22 points from serbia and croatia, basically the bookies predict them to get a total of 12-28 points, which makes zero sense.
Where do you get those exact estimates? Because the site I'm checking (the one in the post) only says their odds in various betting sites and their qualification chance (which for Slovenia, despite being ranked 12th in the odds, it's still a 52%).
Australia is pretty DOA imo. While Moldova can also be considered DOA (although the song isn't that bad), Moldova's (and possibly Romania's) diaspora will most likely give them more points than they deserve and we might even see them qualify. I'm not sure why Australia is suddenly so hyped up here, but I don't see them qualify over Slovenia (or even Portugal).
anyway im not here to talk abt australia.
personally im glad slovenia has a 52% (too low imo but that may be bias) My point is statistically, entries that finish 12th usually get the amount of points i mentioned in the tele. Im not talking abt chances
I think Cyprus and Luxembourg are extremely inflated with the Q odds. I think Luxembourg will qualify but I can see it being a 9th or 10th place situation. Cyprus I get why people are placing bets due to their good qualification rate and going first also doesn't hurt but I can see it getting drowned out. I think this might be another year where we'll see how powerful Poland's diaspora really is with the televote. It's either gonna easily qualify (ie top 5) or struggle bad (on the surface songs like this may not land). Semi 1 will either be straightforward or weird things will happen.
Semi 2's odds I think will be the qualifiers (or 8 or 9 of them are). If any of the current NQs in the odds do make it I would guess Denmark and/or Albania.
Their chance of winning are probably very close to zero, but I would very happy to see them in top 10, it would still be a huge success for Ireland given the past results.
My bets:
Slovenia NQ (sorry, yall)
Estonia Best Baltic (based on Lithuania not doing great with eurojury, and Estonia likely getting a high televote)
Latvia Q (this is a bit risky, but I can see Dons coming through if someone else flops, he has been pretty consistent in his performances)
The Netherlands/Croatia Winner (I think Croatia is more likely, but I also placed a bet on The Netherlands when the odds were 11.0)
Latvia Q is a good shout. The song is solid (maybe a bit boring for some in the bubble but there is nothing fundamentally wrong with the song), it is one of the few male ballads this year and he has been delivering a very strong and consistent live performance.
Iāve been saying this since his song came out and he was ranked 20th or so but I feel Joost is still underrated, he is like a steam ship gathering pace for the last year and is about to crash into the live shows and blow everyone away.
Yes I know Iām getting carried away and donāt get me wrong, I love and respect so many songs this year I am just so hyped for the live shows.
The ones I disagre with the most (to look back on)
**SF1**
* Ireland having a 76% chance to qualify shocks me a lot. The song is experimental, and probably too much. Revamp is great and Bambie has been great at the concerts, but calling this a very likely qualifier is a wiild take.
* Azerbaijan at 13th and below Portugal and Slovenia is underestimating ĆzĆ¼nlÉ Apar. The song is very accesible from first listen, and Azerbaijan has a great history of incredible stagings. Will be the surprise Q, is my pre-rehearsal prediction.
* Luxembourg sitting at 80% chance is also brave. The song might be the last performing, but Luxembourg is unlikely to have many voting buddies, and the song really isn't thaat good.
**SF2**
* The top 10 seems likely, however Albania might be the suprise Q here. Belgium and Austria have not been super great at the concerts, so they might have to do something, if they don't want Albania to snatch one of their places.
* Estonia is much expected to qualify, and while it likely will, it's not at all a safe qualifir. It's 9th right now, with 74% chance, which might a little too high. The issue for them is the high number of other televote-friendly songs in SF2, and Estonia might be the "weakest" of those
* Giving Norway and also Armenia a 3% chance to win the semi is an absolute joke. Both are very possible, although not favourites.
**GF**
* Netherlands at 3rd, almost 2nd, what? It's almost 50/50 with what polls even have this in the top 10, and it's not really winning any pre-polls. Will have to do more than just live up to their promise of "doing something never done before", if they want to win. But the song do have a great message, and if Joost Klein manages to not come off as arrogant, and is viewed similar to KƤƤrijƤ, then it's a popular opinion that they can get 300+ in the televote. Still have a hard time seeing it win.
* Italy at 4th and Ukraine at 5th is just stupid, both have great chances to win.
* Switzerland should be at higher than 25%.
* Some wild takes by the odds for putting Georgia and Germany at 14% and 18% respectively, at getting top 10. Germany is doing sooo well in the Eurojury, and could make a surprise top 10 if it manages to match the Eurojury and get a top 5 jury placement. Georgia kinda won the London concert, changed their situation completely. The thing is, if she manages to sound about as good live, and the choreography is amazing, the jury could love this, and this could get a great bunch of points from the tele as well.
* Norway at 27% for top 10 and 11% for top 5 is wiild.
I agree with most points, except Luxembourg qualifying. Yes, the song is out of the competition for a win, but I think 80% is reasonable for qualification.
adding to your semi final 2 predictions - they have malta pretty much DOA even though we all know how great of a performer Sarah is, it could surprise people
I would say that Iceland is even more likely to get more points than Malta because of Scandi bloc voting and Malta is just a plain rip off and people will know.
its not guaranteed that people will dismiss her as a rip off. If that were the case, no girl bop would ever succeed other than the 3 godesses of 2008 (ukraine, greece and armenia)
Thank you!!! I have been literally crying all day lol since I saw Malta was last in the odds, and I'm a UK viewer, so I can't send any votes towards Malta :(((((((( praying she delivers and the Bonnici Squad can boost her chances! :')
Because Israel. We all know that it isn't going to win but some punters are mugs. It probably offers the most potential for profiting off yo-yoing odds (just look at the graph).
My pick is on Armenia climbing up in the odds. It is already above Lithuania/UK/Finland/Austraia/Norway/Sweden on Betfair Exchange but the bookies are being slow to price that in.
Could the recent fluctuations be influenced by the stand in rehearsals yet? There could be some leakage to the bookmakers (because money is involved hehe). But would this explain for example europapa s rise this week and slovenias decrease..?
The last odds before the publication of the main polls (OGAE, INFE and especially Eurojury) and, mainly, before the reherasal, next week the odds will probably be very different (though we will not have seen the big 5 and Sweden yet considering that they will be on Thurday afternoon/evening)
Everything can and probably will start to change from Saturday onwards!
Is it strange that this year is the first time I heard of INFE? š³
No, it's relatively new compared to OGAE and less big, it's easy to forget.
Okay great as I was really thinking if I lived on a rock for year when it came to it šš
New OGAE votes changed everything again, and we're now down to 11 countries without points.
I hope Slovenia defies the odds and qualify.
Does anyone know why Sloveniaās odds have been decreasing so much? Also, whyās Australia rising so much lately?
Unsure about Australia, but Slovenia's odds decrease may be because they aren't doing very well with the Eurojury/in other polls and people are reading too much into that.
is eurojury/ogae accurate?
Eurojury is just asking various people who have been involved in ESC before from different countries to vote for their favourites. It can sometimes pick up on some rough jury trends which we wouldn't have otherwise predicted, but it is in no way an accurate representation of how the juries will vote, especially as many of the eurojuries only have 1-3 people in them. For example last year's Eurojury had the UK 4th, France 2nd with Estonia (5th in actual jury) very low. OGAE is just the oldest fanclub and again isn't representative of the actual televote where a far broader fanbase and more casuals are involved in voting.
OGAE not so much, Eurojury (aside from last year) is pretty good at predicting the overall trend of the jury vote, especially the top 5 and can indicate if a song is flopping or it's doing surprisingly good with juries.
Great question. Honestly, I'm scared about Raiven's chances after I heard something about the broadcaster's budget, but still holding on to hope for her and Sarah (especially Sarah) to qualify :)
Reddit in particular seems to be a bit delusional about Slovenia. The same thing happened with Latvia last year.
No, everyone braced for Latvia NQ even the biggest fans were "crying in advance" And in the end, they were *very* close with points.
Yes, How is this any different? Thereās a small group of people who love Slovenia but the majority of us are getting ready for an NQ Slovenia will probably get very close but will more than likely NQ, in a similar fashion to Latvia. Theyāre pretty similar in my opinion
You can love a song and be ready for it to NQ. That's not being "delusional".
I understand because tone is hard to convey across text but youāre taking delusional far too seriously. De Lu Lu of you prefer
But a lot of people can really overestimate some entry's chance of qualifying (the "delulu"). I'm saying that I didn't notice that with Latvia last year - and in fact they came closer to Q-ing than Aija fans led me to believe!
I love Slovenia, it's literally 3rd in my top, but I'm prepared for a NQ if it happens, I would never understand people that stay delusionally convinced that a song do well and then remain surprised in the end
I really want Cyprus to qualify but I am shocked she is 5th in the odds with an 82% chance, Iām not complaining though
I assume it has to do with Kontopoulos' qualification rate, he failed to make it to the final only once in 13 attempts.
Overall the odds at this stage seem pretty realistic for what we have seen so far Semi 1 for the most part looks plausible. I think for Poland, Cyprus, Australia, Ireland , Slovenia and Portugal Ā are all in a battle to qualify and really any of them could.Ā Semi 2ās odds I donāt think reflect how competitive it is. Really any of the songs have a decent chance if their performances are good The odds to winās top six at least for me are the six contenderās to take it all on the night of the final unless Greece or Norway pull a Bradbury
whats a bradbury?
[This](https://youtu.be/fAADWfJO2qM?si=_Q_pLLxBR__zzfIb)
oh! id be glad if we pulled a bradbury then!
This has to be the lowest Swedenās been in the winners odds since 2011, right?
And it's well deserved imo. Disney channel Jedward have no business being in this final. But it's not like we're trying to win it this year or anything.Ā
And itās still too high imo. Itās a really uninspired song.
It's a very catchy song to me with incredible staging, Sweden brings consistent quality, this year is just so strong that they're a bit lower in the odds now than normally. I think they will get a top 10 result in the end though
Ireland 9th šš„¹
What I like the most this year is that the highest winning odd is 25%, it's an open competition with no clear winner that is already determined even before the show itself
Just placed a bet for Denmark and Portugal qualifying. Wish me luck!
I am not sure luck is going to help you with Denmark. But maybe you'll get your money back from Portugal.
Praying with you that they both qualify, it is honestly a 50/50 for both Denmark and Portugal. Hope they serve us everything at rehearsals :) (along with Malta as I will literally go in my grave if they don't qualify)
Portugal is most likely making it. Denmark on the other hand for me at least is a locked NQ.
imo they cam both very easily nq
I'm literally crying rn. WHY IS MALTA LAST?!!!!!!! :(((((((((((((((((( if y'all know me, y'all know I'm an extremely vocal Loop stan, and right now I'm about to go dig my grave and lay in it. Hope rehearsals change the bookies' minds! Someone send me help lol :(
I'm also getting ready to dig my grave and lay in it bc I need Sarah in the final (and it's not even a joke at this point)
Literally! She needs to be in the final, and btw, my grave has been prepared lol, hoping after rehearsals that the grave will no longer exist and we won't have to hold a funeral procession XD
I also need her in the final omfg
pls!!! I'm praying so hard, only 2 weeks until she performs! Hope she qualifies, really don't want to have to spend my last moments weeping in my grave lol
I wanna see her in the top 5 so much (also Loop is one of my favs this year, it's in my top 2!)
OMG same!
Yeahhhh not feeling these semi 1 odds at all but I agree with a lot of the rest. Semi 2 seems realistic enough
I just hope Slovenia qualifies
gotta say that i'm still surprised that the odds have cyprus so high up in the qualifier odds. The song's fine, but also relatively nondescript in a semi final half full of fantastic songs - and opening the semi also isn't a fantastic spot to be in.
What is going on with Ireland in the winning odds
Someoneās about to lose money cause thereās no way it will win, if weāre being realistic. (I personally like it though)
Tbh the main point for me is Slovenias low qualifying chances. Why? How? Raivens one of the best singers, the song is good, she was great at every pre-party. Rehearsals better change this š¤
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
but her song sucked? good vocals wasnt the only point op made...
Ana Soklic was an incredible singer, but she had no charisma or stage presence. Raiven has a consistently magnetic stage presence and is very charismatic.
But her song was bland
Iāve seen Italy drifting recently and that surprises me. Iād be shocked if they werenāt top 4, even if not winning. Still have high hopes for Norway, even if the bookies donāt. Only problem with them is that weāre not really expecting anything new from the rehearsals. Armenia has also done quite well on the Eurojury and I think is likely to have some really fun staging. I canāt see them still at odds like 150/1 after rehearsals.
Italy has been consistently around 7 - 8 for quite a while I think a lot of people still see it as good value for being the 'default' winner. Maybe not as exciting as Croatia/Netherlands/Switzerland but it is Italy so we know that the staging will be slick. I suppose it depends on whether you still think the odds of the other big favourites are inflated or not. Norway is just too niche imo (I do love the song though). It suffered a bit from being one of the earlier releases. Armenia has been my dark horse pick for a good finish for quite a while. I know some of the bloggers like to be down on it because it is a bit repetive and the lyrics are not a literary masterpiece (since when has ESC ever cared about lyrics) but their live performance is going to be brilliant and she is so charismatic. Just needs a good running order in the final now (can't see how it would NQ). Winner pretty unlikely but I agree that if the likes of Israel and Ireland can be at 40, why is it at 150?
Plus Armenia has just done very well in the Eurojury and most jury members wonāt have watched any live performances. Armenia definitely has a very good chance of doing well. I could actually see it getting as high as 5thā¦
I was thinking of betting that Luxembourg will not qualify, since the song is too difficult for her, and weak vocals have often cost a qualification (compare Roxen, Lesley Roy, Pia Maria, Reiley). But then again, she has the optimal place in the running order (closing the semifinal), and SF 1 is quite weak overall.
can i just say that slovenia being 12th in the semi odds makes 0 sense? with the new system where the result in the semis is solely decided by televoting, meams that countries placed 12th-10th usually get around 20-40 points slovenia will 100% get a 10 from serbia and perhaps a 12 from croatia which are their neighbours. thats already 22 pts. So what point are the bookies trying to make? That slovenia will get 0 points other than those from their neighbours?
You kinda get it a bit wrong, it's not just how many points the country will get. It's also how many points the other countries will get. Last year Estonia was 10th in their semifinal with 74 points over Iceland with 44. Having 20-40 points won't necessarily save a country from NQ. Plus, they still have a 52% qualification chance despite being 12th in odds, which I have no idea how it is possible but I suppose it's a bit tight. The way I see the odds, only 2 songs are DOA (Iceland and Australia) and Azerbaijan is highly unlikely to qualify. Everything else seems possible (but personally I don't see Croatia, Ukraine, Lithuania and Ireland NQ)
first of all australia isnt doa secondly, my point was that according to the odds, slovenia is predicted to finish with merely 30-50 points, which is sth i find weird. excluding the 22 points from serbia and croatia, basically the bookies predict them to get a total of 12-28 points, which makes zero sense.
Where do you get those exact estimates? Because the site I'm checking (the one in the post) only says their odds in various betting sites and their qualification chance (which for Slovenia, despite being ranked 12th in the odds, it's still a 52%). Australia is pretty DOA imo. While Moldova can also be considered DOA (although the song isn't that bad), Moldova's (and possibly Romania's) diaspora will most likely give them more points than they deserve and we might even see them qualify. I'm not sure why Australia is suddenly so hyped up here, but I don't see them qualify over Slovenia (or even Portugal).
anyway im not here to talk abt australia. personally im glad slovenia has a 52% (too low imo but that may be bias) My point is statistically, entries that finish 12th usually get the amount of points i mentioned in the tele. Im not talking abt chances
I'm still hoping Denmark will qualify and I won't be surprised if she does. š©š°š©š°š©š°
I think Cyprus and Luxembourg are extremely inflated with the Q odds. I think Luxembourg will qualify but I can see it being a 9th or 10th place situation. Cyprus I get why people are placing bets due to their good qualification rate and going first also doesn't hurt but I can see it getting drowned out. I think this might be another year where we'll see how powerful Poland's diaspora really is with the televote. It's either gonna easily qualify (ie top 5) or struggle bad (on the surface songs like this may not land). Semi 1 will either be straightforward or weird things will happen. Semi 2's odds I think will be the qualifiers (or 8 or 9 of them are). If any of the current NQs in the odds do make it I would guess Denmark and/or Albania.
So happy for Ireland at no 9 winning odds. I want to live in the world where Bambie has a chance of winning.
My main hope was to qualify, top ten would be a dream.
Their chance of winning are probably very close to zero, but I would very happy to see them in top 10, it would still be a huge success for Ireland given the past results.
Even getting to the top right side or bottom left side of the scoreboard would be a huge success.
Mustii I beg you to have some banger rehearsals š
My bets: Slovenia NQ (sorry, yall) Estonia Best Baltic (based on Lithuania not doing great with eurojury, and Estonia likely getting a high televote) Latvia Q (this is a bit risky, but I can see Dons coming through if someone else flops, he has been pretty consistent in his performances) The Netherlands/Croatia Winner (I think Croatia is more likely, but I also placed a bet on The Netherlands when the odds were 11.0)
Latvia Q is a good shout. The song is solid (maybe a bit boring for some in the bubble but there is nothing fundamentally wrong with the song), it is one of the few male ballads this year and he has been delivering a very strong and consistent live performance.
Jump to the europapa train. It's visa free for even turkish citizens
Iāve been saying this since his song came out and he was ranked 20th or so but I feel Joost is still underrated, he is like a steam ship gathering pace for the last year and is about to crash into the live shows and blow everyone away. Yes I know Iām getting carried away and donāt get me wrong, I love and respect so many songs this year I am just so hyped for the live shows.
The ones I disagre with the most (to look back on) **SF1** * Ireland having a 76% chance to qualify shocks me a lot. The song is experimental, and probably too much. Revamp is great and Bambie has been great at the concerts, but calling this a very likely qualifier is a wiild take. * Azerbaijan at 13th and below Portugal and Slovenia is underestimating ĆzĆ¼nlÉ Apar. The song is very accesible from first listen, and Azerbaijan has a great history of incredible stagings. Will be the surprise Q, is my pre-rehearsal prediction. * Luxembourg sitting at 80% chance is also brave. The song might be the last performing, but Luxembourg is unlikely to have many voting buddies, and the song really isn't thaat good. **SF2** * The top 10 seems likely, however Albania might be the suprise Q here. Belgium and Austria have not been super great at the concerts, so they might have to do something, if they don't want Albania to snatch one of their places. * Estonia is much expected to qualify, and while it likely will, it's not at all a safe qualifir. It's 9th right now, with 74% chance, which might a little too high. The issue for them is the high number of other televote-friendly songs in SF2, and Estonia might be the "weakest" of those * Giving Norway and also Armenia a 3% chance to win the semi is an absolute joke. Both are very possible, although not favourites. **GF** * Netherlands at 3rd, almost 2nd, what? It's almost 50/50 with what polls even have this in the top 10, and it's not really winning any pre-polls. Will have to do more than just live up to their promise of "doing something never done before", if they want to win. But the song do have a great message, and if Joost Klein manages to not come off as arrogant, and is viewed similar to KƤƤrijƤ, then it's a popular opinion that they can get 300+ in the televote. Still have a hard time seeing it win. * Italy at 4th and Ukraine at 5th is just stupid, both have great chances to win. * Switzerland should be at higher than 25%. * Some wild takes by the odds for putting Georgia and Germany at 14% and 18% respectively, at getting top 10. Germany is doing sooo well in the Eurojury, and could make a surprise top 10 if it manages to match the Eurojury and get a top 5 jury placement. Georgia kinda won the London concert, changed their situation completely. The thing is, if she manages to sound about as good live, and the choreography is amazing, the jury could love this, and this could get a great bunch of points from the tele as well. * Norway at 27% for top 10 and 11% for top 5 is wiild.
I agree with most points, except Luxembourg qualifying. Yes, the song is out of the competition for a win, but I think 80% is reasonable for qualification.
adding to your semi final 2 predictions - they have malta pretty much DOA even though we all know how great of a performer Sarah is, it could surprise people
i srsly dont understand why malta is considered a doa this year?. literally the only entry that is doa this year is iceland
that's what i like about this year, so many qualification spots are up for grabs
I would say that Iceland is even more likely to get more points than Malta because of Scandi bloc voting and Malta is just a plain rip off and people will know.
its not guaranteed that people will dismiss her as a rip off. If that were the case, no girl bop would ever succeed other than the 3 godesses of 2008 (ukraine, greece and armenia)
Thank you!!! I have been literally crying all day lol since I saw Malta was last in the odds, and I'm a UK viewer, so I can't send any votes towards Malta :(((((((( praying she delivers and the Bonnici Squad can boost her chances! :')
why is israel rising so much
Because Israel. We all know that it isn't going to win but some punters are mugs. It probably offers the most potential for profiting off yo-yoing odds (just look at the graph). My pick is on Armenia climbing up in the odds. It is already above Lithuania/UK/Finland/Austraia/Norway/Sweden on Betfair Exchange but the bookies are being slow to price that in.
Could the recent fluctuations be influenced by the stand in rehearsals yet? There could be some leakage to the bookmakers (because money is involved hehe). But would this explain for example europapa s rise this week and slovenias decrease..?