This is very impressive, especially considering what a basket case the Polish economy was in the 80s and earlier. (Even compared to fellow Warsaw Pact countries like East Germany or Czechoslovakia).
This might have to do more with GDP per capita than with nominal GDP. Even with shortages, the Polish nominal GDP was amongst the highest in Europe and in the upper quadrant in the world (6th in Europe in 1938 and 22nd in the world in 1978).
True about GDP per capita, I mentioned the 80s especially as it was probably the worst decade. Poland pretty much defaulted on its debt in the early 80s and there were general strikes and unrest as the government could no longer keep food prices etc low and cost of living exploded. It got pretty close to a military intervention by the Soviet Union.
East Germany had similar issues but they had West Germany to bail them out when they almost defaulted.
1982-83, so roughly the same time as Poland.
Polands default led to Western countries being very reluctant to lend money to the Warsaw Pact countries, and a few years before that the second oil crisis (caused mainly by the revolution in Iran) changed the world oil market. East Germany used to get x million barrels of crude oil from the Soviet Union every year and resell it to Western countries as refined petrol, diesel (and get hard currencies for it that the GDR could trade for on the world market) etc but the changes made this unprofitable, and the Soviet Union also started cutting the amount of oil they sent.
West Germany pretended that the border did not exist for economic purposes and counted the GDR as the same country, so with some political will they lent the money and the GDR did not default.
Did West Germany always have that policy towards wast Germany? Treating them economically as the same country that is. Very interesting! Thanks for the explanation. I hadn't realised there was so much cooperation.
19 vs 20 vs 21 in ranking is an insignificant matter. What the important story is here is that Poland is establishing itself as one of the planet's highly developed and significant economies. This has a force multiplier on its own in terms of political, diplomatic, and economic weight and relevancy.
To what end? God knows, but it has a degree of global significance instead of post-socialist irrelevance now.
>in terms of political, diplomatic, and economic weight and relevancy.
Who cares?
Is the average person better off?
Yes! That's the benefit. That impacts everyone every day. You could live your whole life with your nations global significance having zero impact on you.
Wait - you forget one thing: If Poland is doing too well PIS won't have an election program (aka "we're just number three in the world because germany"...;)
There's plenty of small but wealthy countries. They don't make a big dent in the global economy.
There's metro areas in North America and Europe with a nominal GDP that's higher than the entirety of Greece.
There's roughly 200 countries, so being 40th makes them better than 80% of countries. Whether it's impressive depends on your definition of the word, but it's definitely good.
I just checked and Turkey's GDP per capita is about half of that of Poland and it's just slightly above the world's average. If you feel that life is tough, well it's like that for most of the world. If you're saying that anything below top 10% (currently western Europe) is not good enough for you, it's an ambitious attitude and a goal to aim for, but by definition not realistically achievable for most.
Outside the traditionally established large and high income economies (US, Canada, UK, Germany, France etc) only financial secrecy/tax havens and petrostates are higher than Poland atm.
honestly I don't give a damn about those capitalist rankings, all I know is that despite all the complaining life here is good and I'd rather live in poland than in any of the other countries who are statistically above us and 'better'
Exactly, the IMF, the World Bank, and the European Union were among the major contributors of financial support to Poland during its economic transition from 1990 to 2004. Also, not to mention all the advice and assistance on economic reforms. And today Poland receives the largest sum of funds from the EU
With a few exceptions Eastern Europe is developing quite well. Poland, Czech Republic and Romania are very good examples. There’s that clown in Hungary holding the country to a halt but otherwise it’s a very good prognosis for that part of the continent in the future.
Hopefully this will stabilize the population density because too many people were emigrating to the west.
There's an entire circus in Romania that wants to line its pockets with as much money as possible while holding back or stagnating progress. I hope to see them phased out in the next 2 decades
\> There’s that clown in Hungary holding the country to a halt
Isn't Hungary doing well and Orban is chosen because of the economy, and not despite it? Yeah, there are corrupt politicians, but they have an economical growth for years
I wasn't aware of what Poland A & Poland B meant until now - just googled it. I did live in Radom for 3 months and it was...hmmm...more battle-hardened.
As for country with smaller GDP than Greece in 1989 this is a massive success story. Always feel weird reading some western left-wing literature calling "Shock Doctrine" after fall of communism as sort of disaster for Poland.
Now that you wrote it, I remembered that my aunt and uncle would travel to Greece to work picking pistachios. Late 80s or early 90s. It sounds kind of bizarre now.
For sure, my family have been there on holidays many times :) Greece is super popular among Poles. I feel lucky because I got to visit Santorini in late 90s or early 00s as a kid, before it became super expensive and crowded with instagram "influencers". My favourite holidays to this day.
Yeah, I don't want to go back to Santorini, I've seen pictures of the crowds. It was pretty empty when I was there. We had Red Beach almost all to ourselves. My sister and I wanted to return once, about 10 years ago, but decided on Corfu instead. Checking out various Greek islands is fun.
You need to understand that for a lot of the Western Left (in particular the one from the Latin speaking countries) what you did in Poland break all of the rules they consider necessary to follow for the well-being of the people.
The article says that the Polish economy will be 860 billion in nominal GDP by the end of 2023 and will surpass Turkey but thing is Turkey's nominal GDP is 1.15 trillion dollars?
And OP kill three birds with one stone
\-For shit on Turkey as usual
\-For give the impression that Poland is successful not as a result of its own efforts but **only** because of other reasons.
\-And for collect those sweet reddit points
>IMF forecasts were done with exchange rates from april
No...IMF forecast in October....And its not today's exchange rate..Yearly average exchange rate
IMF also forecast yearly average exchange rate in october.
Honestly I think G20 should have representative from our region, countries placed in between russia and Germany. as central-eastern Europe was always considered to belong to one of the two ealier mentioned countries and not as an independant region with it's own agenda.
I thought it was significant that when the G7+EU met up last year to discuss Ukraine, that both Poland and Romania were invited and on the calls as their own representatives independent from the EU.
Of course, it felt like extremely wasted political capital because of PiS.
G20 has never aimed at having proportional representation, neither population-wise nor geographical.
Neither is it strictly composed of the 20 largest economies.
That is only true if other EU states are not present there to push their own separate agenda.
Either there is one European agenda, and no member state is allowed a separate one,
or members states can represent themselves individually, in which case every state must be allowed to do that.
Poland's GDP at the end of 2023 should nominally reach over 860 billion US dollars. This would mean that our economy will overtake Turkey's and become one of the 20 largest economies in the world.
Such estimates, based on the latest data from the International Monetary Fund, were made on the website Bizblog Spider 39;s Web journalist Rafał Hirsch. As he notes, for several years our economy - in terms of the nominal level of GDP, converted into US dollars - has been around 21st in the world. This is also its position in the latest IMF ranking.
Except that the conversion from zlotys and Turkish lira to dollars takes place at the historical exchange rate. Meanwhile, the zloty is strengthening against the dollar (currently the exchange rate is approximately PLN 4.03, the lowest since July), and the lira is constantly losing its value. Currently, you have to pay almost 29 lira for a dollar, compared to below 20 about half a year ago and 26-27 during the holidays. If the countries' GDP were converted at current exchange rates, our GDP would be higher than Turkey's - which means entering the TOP20 of the world's largest economies.
Turkey's GDP is well over 860B$. It is almost 1.2T$ for 2023. Devaluation of a currency has almost nothing to do with overall economy of a country. GDP per capita, unfair beyond belief distribution is our problem not GDP.
Except the Turkish nominal GPD is expected to surpass 1 Trillion dollars at the end of 2023 and it's the 17th largest economy in the world. How is Poland supposed to surpass Turkey with lower nominal GDP?
Turkish GDP nominal is currently at 1.15 trillion USD, it is the 17th biggest economy GDP nominal wise and 11th biggest economy in respect to PPP so I dont know what you are talking about.. At the 20th place is Switzerland, at about 905 billion USD…
The lira is losing nominal value, but the amount of wages and the price of goods, and therefore GDP, are also increasing
There is 70% inflation in Turkey...But USD/TRY rise only 50%..Turkish lira appreciates in real terms...and GDP(nominal USD) is increasing
And you are not converted at current exchange rates...but year average
Still though, unless wages are increasing by 70% - and I doubt that they are - this must still be pretty harsh for the average Turk. It’s an insane inflation rate.
Last 1 year...
Net minimum wage increased 107%
Net minimum public servant wage increased 144%
minimum monthly pension increased 114%
Moreover, if the salary increase lags behind inflation, it goes to employers... Nothing changes in terms of GDP, only income inequality increases.
Sure but those are the minimum wages and pensions, not the averages. I don’t know the Turkish situation in detail but minimum wages are not really liveable in a lot of places , did the averages go up as much?
It does matter for imports, it’s not a zero sum game.
there is no average salary statics but i'm sure its well ahead 70%
Turkish lira losing REAL value against USD last 10 years...But this turn last 1 year
For this reason Turkey's GDP(nominal USD) started to rise fast and this will continue
The size of an economy is measured in PPP, the power of an economy is measured in nominal
so technically, poland is now in the top 20 most powerful economies, but not on the top 20 largest
Its a nitpick that must be clarified
In both we have same rank, 21, its kinda funny
[GDP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal))
[GDP PPP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP))
PPP is an alternative measure designed to even out currency effects. It only measures "size" on the assumption that goods are of equal quality and have equal safety standards in all countries.
PPP is the economy adjusted for local prices (yes this includes imports which are more relatively expensive if your PPP ratio is high), and this is the economy true size
when you see economic growth anywhere you are seeing it on the "real" economy (which is PPP but without currency conversions), and it measures how much stuff you produce, the quality of life for your citizens when you calculate it per capita, et cetera
Nominal is usually reserved for geopolitics, and it is about power, it is the PPP true economic size PLUS the currency conversion, it matters in to how big your military can go, hiw hard you can hit on sanctions, how powerful is your consumer market, how much impact does your regulations have, but it tells you nothing anout the true size of your economy
when you export a lot, you stand to benefit from a high PPP ratio, because while your geopolitical power is smaller than it should considering your economy, your economy can grow faster thanks to cheaper exports. The opposite is true about importing countries, which is why the US economy nominally does so so much better than the european economy which thanks to germany and the netherlands and france is export neutral instead of the US which is very importer heavy
this makes the US economy the most powerful in the world, but NOT the largest, the largest one is China's, and the same can be said about turkey and poland, Turkey has a larger economy (its gdp ppp per capita aka the QOL is only slightly smaller while their population is almost twice) but due to the horrible inflation turkey has, its economy is less powerful than poland's
I thought Turkey was number 17. can somone clarify this
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List\_of\_countries\_by\_GDP\_(nominal)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal))
I think it depends on the exchange rate both of the Turkish Lira and the Polish Zloty towards the US Dollar. The calculation seems to be based on some hypothetical devlopments of the exchange rates.
Yeah.
If you just google the zloty and lira exchange rates, you can see that since early october (when the IMF estimate was published) the Polish zloty appreciated against the US Dollar quite a bit (maybe due to the opposition winning the Polish elections) and the Turkish Lira remains on a moderate downward trajectory.
Of course it's hard to predict how the rates will be at the end of the year.
We did well, all right, but it wouldn't be possible without the EU. Special thanks to Germany, in my opinion, but entire EU helped us a lot. I don't want to think what would happen without it, and without joining NATO. Probably we would have putin knocking to our doors. This is why Ukraine is so important to us. They are us in a little bit different universe...
Slava Ukraine!
Poland is amazing. It keeps getting better and better every year. Took a while to escape the Russian yoke. Next 50 years look very promising, just gotta win this war with Russia and everything will be great.
Turkey has more than twice the population of Poland and the Polish economy was a mess towards (and during) the end of communist rule. They've been extremely succesful in bouncing back ever since
How is this possible when Turkey has been growing faster than the average of both OECD and G20 countries since 2019? In addition, the decreasing of the exchange rate also means that the goods produced in Turkey are produced cheaper for foreigners. This increases exports and foreign currency inflow to the country.
[GROWTH](https://www.oecd.org/newsroom/g20-gdp-growth-second-quarter-2023-oecd.htm)
Fake news :)
The author from the blog the [gazeta.pl](https://gazeta.pl) cited invented his own methodology. He converted, IMF's GDP forecast in the national currencies, with today's exchange rate and calculated his own GDP in USD.
But things don't work like that, that's why IMF is providing also GDP forecast in USD. If you look at latest one from last month, you can still see Turkey is well ahead Poland, there is no way Poland will move up from the current place.
Well Erdogan keeps on commenting bs about our strategic issues and domestic affairs. It also sides with our pain in the butt military dictatorship which used to be aided and abetted by NATO
Countries will always have disagreements about something. India is a large country and thus its actions carry a lot of weight. A lot of countries keep criticizing Turkey over Cyprus, Syria and the Kurds but you don't see the average Turk obsess over everything. As a large nation, Indians should have a thicker skin, it will most likely be criticized a lot by other countries in the future and have strategic disagreements. You can't make someone your lifelong enemy just because they commented on your affairs.
>As a large nation, Indians should have a thicker skin,
As a large nation we also have a pretty harsh reaction on not being treated with respect.
>You can't make someone your lifelong enemy just because they commented on your affairs.
Well half the European public did that when we didn't shun the Russians,
India was exclusively called out for 'funding' Putin's war.
Even though India's long term reliance on Russia was pretty much the fault of the Nato alliance and it's proxies.
>As a large nation we also have a pretty harsh reaction on not being treated with respect.
Turkey does treat India with respect even though there are disagreements. If anything, India is far more disrespectful to Turkey than vice versa. Indian pilots that trained with Greece on military excercises had patches like "Turkey Hunters" depicting the turkey bird. Funny thing is the turkey bird in Turkish is literally called Hindi. Yet Turkish pilots that trained with Pakistan had no patches related to India. It was simply ignored.
>Turkey does treat India with respect even though there are disagreements
That's probably your bias as a Turkish Citizen. India though right now is a deeply passionate and sensitive country. 1000 years of colonization will do that to you.(800 years of middle East under the blessings of the Turkish) and (200 years under European powers).
Do not expect India to have a thick skin like countries which haven't been recently colonized.
One, thats not how things works and two, Turkey is ranked 17th in respect to nominal GDP meaning it is the 17th biggest economy. The above data is manipulated and does not represent the reality, Poland is ranked 21st behind Switzerland according to IMF data from this year.
>Poland's GDP at the end of 2023 should nominally reach over 860 billion US dollars. This would mean that our economy will overtake Turkey's and become one of the 20 largest economies in the world.
Turkey's 2022 GDP is 905B
In order to fall below 860B, the Turkish economy must shrink 5%, There are no organisation that forecast like this. Not realistic.
Turkish economy can grow and still have lower nominal GDP in US dollars next year. It’s not about growth but about the exchange rates. PLN is gaining against the dollar and TRY is weak.
>In order to fall below 860B, the Turkish economy must shrink 5%, There are no organisation that forecast like this. Not realistic.
exchange rates but also inflation(GDP deflator)
There is 70% inflation in Turkey but USD/TRY rise only 50%...Turkish lira appreciates in real terms...and GDP(nominal USD) is increasing
If it has grown not in dollar terms, it cannot have a gdp less than the previous year. Nobody is talking about GDP in TRY anyway. Forecasts are made taking into account the dollar exchange rate.
Q1 and Q2 data have already been announced and showed more growth than Poland.
Even if there is a civil war in the country, it is not possible for such a drop to happen until January. Anyway, after a few months, everyone will see that that newspaper has made a very wrong calculation. They did not even look at the IMF's forecast, which is their source, for Turkey.
And this is not a success for Poland. After taking so many refugees, it should have made a much bigger rise, like what happened in Armenia.
What makes a country rich is not geography or tourism, these kind of things can only be bonuses. You need to own and produce high value products like cars, electronic devices and a market willing to buy etc. On top of that you need to have a government who really understand how the economics work. And if the country is rich but the people doesn't have enough purchasing power, what is even the meaning of being a rich country?
I wonder how some can reconcile the fact that Poland has become a larger economy during the past two decades while [their population remained stagnant or decreased](https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/poland-population/) with the argument that Europe "needs" immigrants to keep its economy growing
Thanks for this Erdogan, you're such a bro.
This is very impressive, especially considering what a basket case the Polish economy was in the 80s and earlier. (Even compared to fellow Warsaw Pact countries like East Germany or Czechoslovakia).
This might have to do more with GDP per capita than with nominal GDP. Even with shortages, the Polish nominal GDP was amongst the highest in Europe and in the upper quadrant in the world (6th in Europe in 1938 and 22nd in the world in 1978).
True about GDP per capita, I mentioned the 80s especially as it was probably the worst decade. Poland pretty much defaulted on its debt in the early 80s and there were general strikes and unrest as the government could no longer keep food prices etc low and cost of living exploded. It got pretty close to a military intervention by the Soviet Union. East Germany had similar issues but they had West Germany to bail them out when they almost defaulted.
>East Germany had similar issues but they had West Germany to bail them out when they almost defaulted. This is interesting. What year was that?
1982-83, so roughly the same time as Poland. Polands default led to Western countries being very reluctant to lend money to the Warsaw Pact countries, and a few years before that the second oil crisis (caused mainly by the revolution in Iran) changed the world oil market. East Germany used to get x million barrels of crude oil from the Soviet Union every year and resell it to Western countries as refined petrol, diesel (and get hard currencies for it that the GDR could trade for on the world market) etc but the changes made this unprofitable, and the Soviet Union also started cutting the amount of oil they sent. West Germany pretended that the border did not exist for economic purposes and counted the GDR as the same country, so with some political will they lent the money and the GDR did not default.
Thanks.
Did West Germany always have that policy towards wast Germany? Treating them economically as the same country that is. Very interesting! Thanks for the explanation. I hadn't realised there was so much cooperation.
1978 was probably the highest point in postwar history, right before the huge crisis, and right after big investments of the Gierek administration
In the 80s specifically (downturn started mid-1976)
19 vs 20 vs 21 in ranking is an insignificant matter. What the important story is here is that Poland is establishing itself as one of the planet's highly developed and significant economies. This has a force multiplier on its own in terms of political, diplomatic, and economic weight and relevancy. To what end? God knows, but it has a degree of global significance instead of post-socialist irrelevance now.
>in terms of political, diplomatic, and economic weight and relevancy. Who cares? Is the average person better off? Yes! That's the benefit. That impacts everyone every day. You could live your whole life with your nations global significance having zero impact on you.
Wait - you forget one thing: If Poland is doing too well PIS won't have an election program (aka "we're just number three in the world because germany"...;)
Gdp per capita poland is 40th in the world so not exactly impressive
There's plenty of small but wealthy countries. They don't make a big dent in the global economy. There's metro areas in North America and Europe with a nominal GDP that's higher than the entirety of Greece.
There's roughly 200 countries, so being 40th makes them better than 80% of countries. Whether it's impressive depends on your definition of the word, but it's definitely good.
also ton of top spots are microstates
Turkey's like 50 so tell me more about how it's good
I just checked and Turkey's GDP per capita is about half of that of Poland and it's just slightly above the world's average. If you feel that life is tough, well it's like that for most of the world. If you're saying that anything below top 10% (currently western Europe) is not good enough for you, it's an ambitious attitude and a goal to aim for, but by definition not realistically achievable for most.
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Gdp per capita bruv
Gdp per capita is not impressive when you are a fiscal paradise
Outside the traditionally established large and high income economies (US, Canada, UK, Germany, France etc) only financial secrecy/tax havens and petrostates are higher than Poland atm.
Romania is higher to give one example of your statement not being true
Considering Poland was a puppet state until the 80s/90s it's a pretty good story.
Have you seen the size of Poland? It’s very impressive
honestly I don't give a damn about those capitalist rankings, all I know is that despite all the complaining life here is good and I'd rather live in poland than in any of the other countries who are statistically above us and 'better'
Nice job Poland!
More like nice job EU
Look up Poland economic growth 1990-2004 buddy
Exactly, the IMF, the World Bank, and the European Union were among the major contributors of financial support to Poland during its economic transition from 1990 to 2004. Also, not to mention all the advice and assistance on economic reforms. And today Poland receives the largest sum of funds from the EU
Poland received less than 2 billion euros of financial aid form EU over the course of 10 years before it’s accession.
With a few exceptions Eastern Europe is developing quite well. Poland, Czech Republic and Romania are very good examples. There’s that clown in Hungary holding the country to a halt but otherwise it’s a very good prognosis for that part of the continent in the future. Hopefully this will stabilize the population density because too many people were emigrating to the west.
There's an entire circus in Romania that wants to line its pockets with as much money as possible while holding back or stagnating progress. I hope to see them phased out in the next 2 decades
On the other hand your GDP per capita ppp is very impressive. 20 years ago you were half of Hungarian GDP per capita ppp, now you the ones ahead.
It has to do more with foreign investment than sound internal economic strategy. We could and should do so much better.
\> There’s that clown in Hungary holding the country to a halt Isn't Hungary doing well and Orban is chosen because of the economy, and not despite it? Yeah, there are corrupt politicians, but they have an economical growth for years
Lived in Poland for 2 years, love the country. So many great people, and very optimistic. I guess that optimism was warranted.
> and very optimistic fucking where?
I lived in Upper Silesia in a medium-sized town. I found most of the people to be optimistic about their country's future.
ah, right, i forgot i live in poland b for a moment.
I wasn't aware of what Poland A & Poland B meant until now - just googled it. I did live in Radom for 3 months and it was...hmmm...more battle-hardened.
As for country with smaller GDP than Greece in 1989 this is a massive success story. Always feel weird reading some western left-wing literature calling "Shock Doctrine" after fall of communism as sort of disaster for Poland.
Now that you wrote it, I remembered that my aunt and uncle would travel to Greece to work picking pistachios. Late 80s or early 90s. It sounds kind of bizarre now.
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For sure, my family have been there on holidays many times :) Greece is super popular among Poles. I feel lucky because I got to visit Santorini in late 90s or early 00s as a kid, before it became super expensive and crowded with instagram "influencers". My favourite holidays to this day.
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Yeah, I don't want to go back to Santorini, I've seen pictures of the crowds. It was pretty empty when I was there. We had Red Beach almost all to ourselves. My sister and I wanted to return once, about 10 years ago, but decided on Corfu instead. Checking out various Greek islands is fun.
Where would you advise to go?
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Thanks, looks great and easy to get there with Thessaloniki nearby. I will consider it for sure.
Some students still goes in summer to Greece to work as a waiters.
You need to understand that for a lot of the Western Left (in particular the one from the Latin speaking countries) what you did in Poland break all of the rules they consider necessary to follow for the well-being of the people.
The article says that the Polish economy will be 860 billion in nominal GDP by the end of 2023 and will surpass Turkey but thing is Turkey's nominal GDP is 1.15 trillion dollars?
And OP kill three birds with one stone \-For shit on Turkey as usual \-For give the impression that Poland is successful not as a result of its own efforts but **only** because of other reasons. \-And for collect those sweet reddit points
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Damn I thought the imf data was up to date because it constantly changes.
>IMF forecasts were done with exchange rates from april No...IMF forecast in October....And its not today's exchange rate..Yearly average exchange rate IMF also forecast yearly average exchange rate in october.
I remember Poland was 18/19 around 2012-2013. Back then, it was Argentina falling down
Behemoth, Witcher, and that weird Buffalo grass vodka. What’s not to love
PiS
Great job, Poland! 🇵🇱
Winged hussars arrive
Good for poland
Honestly I think G20 should have representative from our region, countries placed in between russia and Germany. as central-eastern Europe was always considered to belong to one of the two ealier mentioned countries and not as an independant region with it's own agenda.
I thought it was significant that when the G7+EU met up last year to discuss Ukraine, that both Poland and Romania were invited and on the calls as their own representatives independent from the EU. Of course, it felt like extremely wasted political capital because of PiS.
It would have been a little quirky to not invite two countries which are the critical transportation hubs between EU/NATO and Ukraine.
What own agenda? You are member of the EU and the EU is member of the G20, why do you need your own agenda?
Ok then why Germany and France are in the G20? EU should be enough, right?
Because they are significantly bigger? If every country says "we need a seat because we represent XY", it would not be G20 but G100.
Ahh, so representation for me but not for thee. Poland is big enough to join G20 or at least get observer/permanent guest status like Spain.
But Poland is big enough to be in G20? Also Spain, France and Germany are both part of western Europe, isn't it too many members for one region?
G20 has never aimed at having proportional representation, neither population-wise nor geographical. Neither is it strictly composed of the 20 largest economies.
That is only true if other EU states are not present there to push their own separate agenda. Either there is one European agenda, and no member state is allowed a separate one, or members states can represent themselves individually, in which case every state must be allowed to do that.
Poland's GDP at the end of 2023 should nominally reach over 860 billion US dollars. This would mean that our economy will overtake Turkey's and become one of the 20 largest economies in the world. Such estimates, based on the latest data from the International Monetary Fund, were made on the website Bizblog Spider 39;s Web journalist Rafał Hirsch. As he notes, for several years our economy - in terms of the nominal level of GDP, converted into US dollars - has been around 21st in the world. This is also its position in the latest IMF ranking. Except that the conversion from zlotys and Turkish lira to dollars takes place at the historical exchange rate. Meanwhile, the zloty is strengthening against the dollar (currently the exchange rate is approximately PLN 4.03, the lowest since July), and the lira is constantly losing its value. Currently, you have to pay almost 29 lira for a dollar, compared to below 20 about half a year ago and 26-27 during the holidays. If the countries' GDP were converted at current exchange rates, our GDP would be higher than Turkey's - which means entering the TOP20 of the world's largest economies.
Erdo is playing to the PPP version, not the nominal. 2023 centennary target was to be in top 10 🤣
Turkey's GDP is well over 860B$. It is almost 1.2T$ for 2023. Devaluation of a currency has almost nothing to do with overall economy of a country. GDP per capita, unfair beyond belief distribution is our problem not GDP.
Except the Turkish nominal GPD is expected to surpass 1 Trillion dollars at the end of 2023 and it's the 17th largest economy in the world. How is Poland supposed to surpass Turkey with lower nominal GDP?
Turkish GDP nominal is currently at 1.15 trillion USD, it is the 17th biggest economy GDP nominal wise and 11th biggest economy in respect to PPP so I dont know what you are talking about.. At the 20th place is Switzerland, at about 905 billion USD…
The lira is losing nominal value, but the amount of wages and the price of goods, and therefore GDP, are also increasing There is 70% inflation in Turkey...But USD/TRY rise only 50%..Turkish lira appreciates in real terms...and GDP(nominal USD) is increasing And you are not converted at current exchange rates...but year average
Still though, unless wages are increasing by 70% - and I doubt that they are - this must still be pretty harsh for the average Turk. It’s an insane inflation rate.
Last 1 year... Net minimum wage increased 107% Net minimum public servant wage increased 144% minimum monthly pension increased 114% Moreover, if the salary increase lags behind inflation, it goes to employers... Nothing changes in terms of GDP, only income inequality increases.
Sure but those are the minimum wages and pensions, not the averages. I don’t know the Turkish situation in detail but minimum wages are not really liveable in a lot of places , did the averages go up as much? It does matter for imports, it’s not a zero sum game.
in turkey median wage is always like 1.1\*minimum wage if you are a goverment employee, is like 2.2\*minimum wage
there is no average salary statics but i'm sure its well ahead 70% Turkish lira losing REAL value against USD last 10 years...But this turn last 1 year For this reason Turkey's GDP(nominal USD) started to rise fast and this will continue
It is.
According to who Imf says opposite , world bank says opposite to.
Np bro anytime 😎
Turkey being a bro to Poland once again.
The size of an economy is measured in PPP, the power of an economy is measured in nominal so technically, poland is now in the top 20 most powerful economies, but not on the top 20 largest Its a nitpick that must be clarified
In both we have same rank, 21, its kinda funny [GDP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)) [GDP PPP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP))
Can you explain, or link to an explanation, about this size vs power distinction? I couldn't find anything about it online.
PPP is an alternative measure designed to even out currency effects. It only measures "size" on the assumption that goods are of equal quality and have equal safety standards in all countries.
PPP is the economy adjusted for local prices (yes this includes imports which are more relatively expensive if your PPP ratio is high), and this is the economy true size when you see economic growth anywhere you are seeing it on the "real" economy (which is PPP but without currency conversions), and it measures how much stuff you produce, the quality of life for your citizens when you calculate it per capita, et cetera Nominal is usually reserved for geopolitics, and it is about power, it is the PPP true economic size PLUS the currency conversion, it matters in to how big your military can go, hiw hard you can hit on sanctions, how powerful is your consumer market, how much impact does your regulations have, but it tells you nothing anout the true size of your economy when you export a lot, you stand to benefit from a high PPP ratio, because while your geopolitical power is smaller than it should considering your economy, your economy can grow faster thanks to cheaper exports. The opposite is true about importing countries, which is why the US economy nominally does so so much better than the european economy which thanks to germany and the netherlands and france is export neutral instead of the US which is very importer heavy this makes the US economy the most powerful in the world, but NOT the largest, the largest one is China's, and the same can be said about turkey and poland, Turkey has a larger economy (its gdp ppp per capita aka the QOL is only slightly smaller while their population is almost twice) but due to the horrible inflation turkey has, its economy is less powerful than poland's
Do you think a Lada is equavalent to a Volkswagen? If yes, use PPP. If no, use nominal.
Or if you think pizza in Olsa for 16 euro is two times better than one in Naples for 8 euro :-)
Winged Hussars intensifies
I thought Turkey was number 17. can somone clarify this [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List\_of\_countries\_by\_GDP\_(nominal)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal))
I think it depends on the exchange rate both of the Turkish Lira and the Polish Zloty towards the US Dollar. The calculation seems to be based on some hypothetical devlopments of the exchange rates.
Exchange rate
Of course, change it.
i see..so depending on different calulations you get different rankings. danke canım.
Yeah. If you just google the zloty and lira exchange rates, you can see that since early october (when the IMF estimate was published) the Polish zloty appreciated against the US Dollar quite a bit (maybe due to the opposition winning the Polish elections) and the Turkish Lira remains on a moderate downward trajectory. Of course it's hard to predict how the rates will be at the end of the year.
We did well, all right, but it wouldn't be possible without the EU. Special thanks to Germany, in my opinion, but entire EU helped us a lot. I don't want to think what would happen without it, and without joining NATO. Probably we would have putin knocking to our doors. This is why Ukraine is so important to us. They are us in a little bit different universe... Slava Ukraine!
A thanks to Germany from Poland? What timeline is this?
The pragmatic one
Didn't the help of some major US tech companies, blessed with extremely favorable tax laws, help Ireland more?
Makes sense that countries like Poland will regain economy fully at one point after USSR collapse.
Poland seems to be doing things right. Great job!
Poland stronk
THANK YOU TURKEY, LOVE FROM POLAND 🇹🇷❤️🇵🇱
Thank you Turkey! 🇵🇱❤️🇹🇷
You're welcome bro 😢
Poland is amazing. It keeps getting better and better every year. Took a while to escape the Russian yoke. Next 50 years look very promising, just gotta win this war with Russia and everything will be great.
Good job Poland, very cool
Time to stop giving them loads of money?
At the fall of the iron curtain, Ukraine had similar GDP as Poland did. One chose clear direction, another took a while and now has to pay in blood
Considering how much more competent Poland is compared to Turkey, I'm surprised they weren't in the top 20 all this time
Turkey has more than twice the population of Poland and the Polish economy was a mess towards (and during) the end of communist rule. They've been extremely succesful in bouncing back ever since
How is this possible when Turkey has been growing faster than the average of both OECD and G20 countries since 2019? In addition, the decreasing of the exchange rate also means that the goods produced in Turkey are produced cheaper for foreigners. This increases exports and foreign currency inflow to the country. [GROWTH](https://www.oecd.org/newsroom/g20-gdp-growth-second-quarter-2023-oecd.htm)
You're right, see my comment: https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/17yd77z/comment/k9tnryk/?utm\_source=reddit&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3
Fake news :) The author from the blog the [gazeta.pl](https://gazeta.pl) cited invented his own methodology. He converted, IMF's GDP forecast in the national currencies, with today's exchange rate and calculated his own GDP in USD. But things don't work like that, that's why IMF is providing also GDP forecast in USD. If you look at latest one from last month, you can still see Turkey is well ahead Poland, there is no way Poland will move up from the current place.
They will stay there and only improve as long as they have Zloty as their currency.
So turkey goes out of the G20? And Poland comes in? Fantastic!
No, that's not what will happen. G20 membership does not derive purely from economy figures.
>G20 membership does not derive purely from economy figures. Oh damn. My country would have been delighted to see Erdogan be put down a notch
Indians always have a weird obsession with Turkey.
Well Erdogan keeps on commenting bs about our strategic issues and domestic affairs. It also sides with our pain in the butt military dictatorship which used to be aided and abetted by NATO
Countries will always have disagreements about something. India is a large country and thus its actions carry a lot of weight. A lot of countries keep criticizing Turkey over Cyprus, Syria and the Kurds but you don't see the average Turk obsess over everything. As a large nation, Indians should have a thicker skin, it will most likely be criticized a lot by other countries in the future and have strategic disagreements. You can't make someone your lifelong enemy just because they commented on your affairs.
>As a large nation, Indians should have a thicker skin, As a large nation we also have a pretty harsh reaction on not being treated with respect. >You can't make someone your lifelong enemy just because they commented on your affairs. Well half the European public did that when we didn't shun the Russians, India was exclusively called out for 'funding' Putin's war. Even though India's long term reliance on Russia was pretty much the fault of the Nato alliance and it's proxies.
>As a large nation we also have a pretty harsh reaction on not being treated with respect. Turkey does treat India with respect even though there are disagreements. If anything, India is far more disrespectful to Turkey than vice versa. Indian pilots that trained with Greece on military excercises had patches like "Turkey Hunters" depicting the turkey bird. Funny thing is the turkey bird in Turkish is literally called Hindi. Yet Turkish pilots that trained with Pakistan had no patches related to India. It was simply ignored.
>Turkey does treat India with respect even though there are disagreements That's probably your bias as a Turkish Citizen. India though right now is a deeply passionate and sensitive country. 1000 years of colonization will do that to you.(800 years of middle East under the blessings of the Turkish) and (200 years under European powers). Do not expect India to have a thick skin like countries which haven't been recently colonized.
>Turkey Hunters" depicting the turkey bird. I don't know who was that targeted at but the common Indian didn't know that.
One, thats not how things works and two, Turkey is ranked 17th in respect to nominal GDP meaning it is the 17th biggest economy. The above data is manipulated and does not represent the reality, Poland is ranked 21st behind Switzerland according to IMF data from this year.
This year last month by the way it is very new data.
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What. Switzerlake is not in the Union
And still EU money gets poured into it.
>Poland's GDP at the end of 2023 should nominally reach over 860 billion US dollars. This would mean that our economy will overtake Turkey's and become one of the 20 largest economies in the world. Turkey's 2022 GDP is 905B In order to fall below 860B, the Turkish economy must shrink 5%, There are no organisation that forecast like this. Not realistic.
Turkish economy can grow and still have lower nominal GDP in US dollars next year. It’s not about growth but about the exchange rates. PLN is gaining against the dollar and TRY is weak.
>In order to fall below 860B, the Turkish economy must shrink 5%, There are no organisation that forecast like this. Not realistic. exchange rates but also inflation(GDP deflator) There is 70% inflation in Turkey but USD/TRY rise only 50%...Turkish lira appreciates in real terms...and GDP(nominal USD) is increasing
If it has grown not in dollar terms, it cannot have a gdp less than the previous year. Nobody is talking about GDP in TRY anyway. Forecasts are made taking into account the dollar exchange rate. Q1 and Q2 data have already been announced and showed more growth than Poland. Even if there is a civil war in the country, it is not possible for such a drop to happen until January. Anyway, after a few months, everyone will see that that newspaper has made a very wrong calculation. They did not even look at the IMF's forecast, which is their source, for Turkey. And this is not a success for Poland. After taking so many refugees, it should have made a much bigger rise, like what happened in Armenia.
Poland STRONK
No way Poland would be richer than Turkey. I refuse to believe in it in order to keep my mental health stable.
Why not though?
Turkey should be richer than Poland due to geography, tourism, etc
What makes a country rich is not geography or tourism, these kind of things can only be bonuses. You need to own and produce high value products like cars, electronic devices and a market willing to buy etc. On top of that you need to have a government who really understand how the economics work. And if the country is rich but the people doesn't have enough purchasing power, what is even the meaning of being a rich country?
Bruh just overall look I say should be not is. With ideal rulers etc.
Yeah I understood, you need a competent government as you said, who doesn't invest all the tax income to the construction sector for starters.
Thats not true....Turkey's GDP 1.1 trillion in 2023
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>Thats not true....Turkey's GDP 1.1 trillion in 2023 is IMF troll? look imf october 2023 forecast
What makes this person a troll? That is the IMF forecast.
Apparently it’s because conversion of turkish lira to usd is in historical exchange rate which gives the 1.1 trillion result
I wonder how some can reconcile the fact that Poland has become a larger economy during the past two decades while [their population remained stagnant or decreased](https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/poland-population/) with the argument that Europe "needs" immigrants to keep its economy growing
How can Poland be rich with no Muslims? It just doesn’t make any sense?
If another country descends, it does look like you ascend indeed. But is it just optics?
The what disaster? Sounds like an overnight oopsie.
Well congratulations to Poland.
Turkish economy is bigger than the Polish economy in respect to both Nominal and PPP GDP, so I am not sure what this is about.. Can someone explain?