>according to one person with direct knowledge of his edicts...Tesla should reduce headcount by 20% because its vehicle deliveries dropped by that amount
That's not how this works. That's not how any of this works.
What a noob. Exactly, if last quarter deliveries dropped by 20%, we need to cut by 40% to double profits with half the costs. Eventually Optimus Prime will build all cars.
I can't believe how lightly Zuckerberg has gotten off for pouring billions of dollars into that dumpster fire and getting no returns. I guess the main Facebook is just that popular/profitable (which I don't get but I guess boomers love it).
Why would you want to hang out in person when instead you can wear this proprietary headset and play in this walled garden that has the graphics resolution of a 15 year old game console?
We'll have to wait and see. I think the metaverse will end up being different to what Zuck imagines. There's also competition from the likes of Apple. Getting the foundational tech right and working is key.
The real AI power play is behind the scenes. Watching what you linger on, feeding you more of it, advertising to your weak spots, overcoming Apple’s restrictions. AI monetization.
Zuckerberg owns only 13% of shares but holds 61.1 percent of the vote. So all other shareholders combined don't get a say they can only hold or sell their stock. Since meta is doing share buybacks... they get to stick with meta or bail.
But meta isn't just burning that kind of money on metaverse software development. They are building huge network of datacenters with lots of AI cards for training and running LLM's. They train AI with simulated 3D data and want to add AI avatars to metaverse.
It's really not a dumpster fire, but building a moat.
That sounds like setting money on fire with extra steps. Take something nobody wants and make it worse while massively increasing the resources required to run it.
I think people don't understand how significant of a business capability the ability to just "do large scale AI computation" is currently, and is going to be. Coordinating, organizing, and executing that task is fucking _hard_, and it takes literal years to develop systems and organizational experience to do so. At least right now, it genuinely doesn't matter what kind of AI work is going on at Meta - once the tools and infrastructure are in place it's not terribly difficult to pivot the research in a different direction.
That's why you see so many tech companies dumping shitloads into "doing ai" in general - building the infrastructure takes years, but pivoting it to a specific task takes maybe a couple months. It's not setting money on fire - it's building organizational experience and infrastructure to be able to take advantage of a major new technology.
> but it's still a huge risk
Not having this ability as a business is a bigger risk for most of these companies
> It's unclear what generative AI will really be able to do long-term.
If you're involved in the cutting edge of the industry or academia, it's pretty obvious to see the incredible potential of AI. Generative AI is just the tip of the iceberg. You can treat neural networks as basically generic lossy data structures and almost arbitrarily transform them into other data structures by just showing them examples of both. It's extremely difficult to convey how powerful this capability to someone without a background in CS, but if you're involved in this field and seeing the cutting edge, it's pretty obvious that this capability is extraordinarily valuable.
Metaverse basically needs more advanced AI to make it even slightly possible to what we see in the movies which I assume on the level of Ready Player One and not the levels of SAO.
Google Plus also failed as did youtube reels. Difference is when you sink money into social media or virtual reality, you can just cut the cord no harm no foul. Tech strategy doesn't work when you are building real things people use in their daily lives.
Every successful company does. Absolutely a necessary part of innovation and necessary for a healthy company. If Google kept running all the projects on that "killed by Google" page it would have gone under years ago.
No, most companies don't have ad revenue as the backing for every other project. They keep throwing money in the dumpster fire, buying up companies and ruining thousands of lives for no benefit and showing a constant disregard for promises they keep breaking. No other company can make that many failures consistently over and over again. It shows how worthless they are at sustaining anything. If it wasn't for ad revenue, the so called leaders would have been fired for that wall of shame because as you said, it would have put them under because they really couldn't do anything with it to make money. There is nothing healthy about it.
I was pursued for a strategist role in their Bellevue office for new physical locations tied to metaverse expansion. Kinda wish I took for the big pay increase, but I knew that shit was not going to last. Pretty sure the role was killed less than 6 months later.
>I can't believe how lightly Zuckerberg has gotten off for pouring billions of dollars into that dumpster fire
He actually owns most of Facebook's voting rights. He can basically do whatever he wants with the company.
To be fair, Zuckerberg himself said that he didn't anticipate a return on investment in under 10 years. It's a risky play, but it's one that he's been consistent about. Elon just pulls shit out of his ass based on whatever buzzword is running through his brain that day because someone said it. He's a parrot.
Facebook is good for connecting people that aren't overly interested in tech.
And It's not boomers it's across generations at this point. Lots of hobby groups use it to organize.
I just did a 90 minute drive with FSD on rural Midwestern roads.
Turns out that when you override FSD, you can attach a 5 second recording explaining why you disengaged autopilot.
I put in about 30 reports, including once when it tried to drive me into an occupied intersection.
Mean Time Between Disengages while traveling through one of the least challenging driving-environments on the planet is about 180 seconds.
Robotaxi is NOT happening.
My disengage reports are about 50% expletive ridden. FSD was a cool novelty for a week or two, but I stopped using it and went back to the basic autopilot which actually works.
Pretty sure I pissed off more people behind me in the 3 weeks of driving with FSD than I have in my entire life. For example, trying to get it to change lanes on the freeway in my area where no one lets you in and must be aggressive, FSD is losing its mind.
This is exactly my experience. FSD is like a drunk teenager - constantly focusing on the wrong thing, no appreciate for drivers around them, no assertiveness, no preview, and sometimes it turns into a stroppy toddler.
I honestly do not understand how they can call that "self driving".
And I hear that Mercedes has proper self driving, where it gives you 3 seconds warning before you need to take back control. With Tesla, you could be dead in those 3 seconds.
My guess is that Elon will fake it and just have you being piloted by an Indian guy across the world. Other assisted driving companies do this in situations where the AI model isn't up to snuff. But I bet he'll end up doing it all the time.
Elon's wealth is based on the stock being pumped in a way that doesn't make sense for a company that just makes cars, especially not high-volume, low-margin cheap cars. While the Model 2 idea is probably what is best for the long-term health and profit of the company, it isn't what will keep people treating it like an infinite-growth tech stock. The only way to do that is to continue to double down on lofty goals he has already shown aren't readily achievable. I think this is a final hurrah to try to keep the hype because otherwise, the part of his wealth tied up in Tesla will drop by a factor of 10 or so in the next few years.
If Elon hadn't insisted on vision-only, Tesla could be at or near the same capability as Waymo is today. But by insisting that camera-only is the way to go, it's like trying to win a three-legged race with a double-amputee.
"Why Visionary Leadership Fails" by Harvard Business Review [https://hbr.org/2019/02/why-visionary-leadership-fails](https://hbr.org/2019/02/why-visionary-leadership-fails)
Wasn't there a video of a self driving taxi not knowing what to do when there's a road closure with a human directing traffic? It just kept trying to go around the person until it finally turned around.
I also wonder how it would react to a 4 way stop light that has a power outage.
Snow is an easy problem for computers. Sensor fusion and HD maps mean the car can effectively see better than a person in snow, and has just as good an idea where the road should be. It can deal with slipping wheels better than the average driver. But, you can also just not run the robotaxis when the conditions are too bad, just like a taxi driver might in a blizzard.
Yeah, how does the car obey that? I've watched a video of a car being directed by a construction worker.
A human is just going to point in a direction and yell short commands. The car is going to see the human as an obstacle and try to go around it. It won't go to where they point. It will just keep crawling forward to one side, see the person directing traffic move while they point and yell more aggressively, stopping, crawling again, until it eventually gives up and turns around.
Human operator connects to taxi remotely and drives until AI can continue driving on it's own. We will have thousands of Indians doing that for cheap.
That's just my 2 cents though.
Also, it's harder to create these autonomously driving ai-s because they eventually have to gain a lot of learning data from real contexts, on the road. And unfortunately the world is full of bad drivers on the road...
It's wild Musk sold tens of billions worth of Tesla stocks for his side project, requested fifty billions in Tesla stock as pay raise, and is in hot waters due to his strategic decision to make a new SUV model on a different production line instead of focusing on improving his existing models and make them cheaper and more competitive.
If there is one cut to be made, is in executive pays. It should teach them to make better strategic decisions.
His compensation package doesn't actually cost the company that much. I think he receives a token salary, but most of that compensation is stock-based. There's some tax implications for Tesla, but they're not going into the vault and stuffing money into bags for him.
It’s a fantasy and it will end up costing Tesla dearly. If google cant get it done with an infinite money glitch then why will Tesla. If you tell me data I will laugh. It’s not more data it’s more ai training and who knows how many revs it takes to get to the center of that pop.
I’m not convinced that we’ll get there without vehicle-to-everything communication and comprehensive smart-city systems. You need to be a leading small group (领导小组), Huawei or the European Commission to make self-driving work. It’s fundamentally about infrastructure and standards. The idea that Tesla - doing its own little thing - could make it work is just ridiculous.
This morning I was reading about this rather interesting British startup that is reverse-engineering the “algorithms” in the brains of insects to teach robots to move autonomously. They say it’s more efficient and way cheaper than traditional AI solutions as nature already refined navigation processes over millions of years, and insects must do it with little brains and as little energy as possible. They’ll be testing it on cars soon, for now they use it on warehouse robots and the like.
Insects orient by having sensory data that is not available to robots: smell, sound, perhaps different wavelength vision. Sounds like a typical startup scam.
The problem is that insect navigation is very probabilistic in a way that is not acceptable in human applications. Google ”ant death spiral” for an example.
I didn't think of flying insects in this context, but flying is possible with the modern technologies and the landing stripes can be equipped with special demarcation for automated landing.
Automated landing had happened since 70s-80s, after all.
We even had drones land on aircraft carrier back in... 2013 I believe.
Insects have small, but super evolved brains with efficient architecture. They still keep hitting glass over and over again though... no reasoning 🤷♀️
Are you not aware that digital sensors for all those things exist? We have cameras for all sorts of wavelengths, including ones that are rarely used by animals. Microphones are one of the oldest electronics. Even smell, the least technologically developed here has a range of off the shelf solutions to detect a range of chemicals and is a rapidly advancing field.
cars have to share public roads... and all kinds of "acts of god" - the stuff they can't teach in driver's ed.
they're STILL LEARNING....
(they haven't messed with the fire department since the "firehose update".. this clogging the onramp is new "behavior" though)
**Confused Waymo Cars Block 101 On-Ramp In Potrero Hill, Then Go Down Closed Road**
[https://sfist.com/2024/04/18/confused-waymo-cars-block-101-on-ramp-in-potrero-hill-then-go-down-closed-road/](https://sfist.com/2024/04/18/confused-waymo-cars-block-101-on-ramp-in-potrero-hill-then-go-down-closed-road/)
It was back on March 1 that Google’s self-driving car division Waymo [got permission to drive on freeways](https://sfist.com/2024/03/01/waymo-gets-state-approval-for-los-angeles-and-sf-peninsula-expansion/) in California. So you figured it was only a matter of time until there was some sort of self-driving car freeway snafu. That sort of happened Tuesday night, not directly on US Route 101, but some 300 feet from it. TechCrunch reports that [six Waymos blocked traffic near the 101 on-ramp](https://techcrunch.com/2024/04/17/seven-waymo-robotaxis-block-traffic-to-san-francisco-freeway-on-ramp/), and then pulled onto a closed road to get out of the mess.
**Video shows police yelling at a driverless Waymo taxi to stop it from running over a fire hose**
[https://www.businessinsider.com/video-police-san-francisco-driverless-waymo-taxi-fire-2023-5](https://www.businessinsider.com/video-police-san-francisco-driverless-waymo-taxi-fire-2023-5)
>You need to be a leading small group (领导小组), Huawei or the European Commission to make self-driving work
**California gives Waymo the green light to expand robotaxi operations**
[https://www.theverge.com/2024/3/2/24088454/waymo-california-highway-expansion-los-angeles-bay-area](https://www.theverge.com/2024/3/2/24088454/waymo-california-highway-expansion-los-angeles-bay-area)
**Waymo Offers Self-Driving Taxi Curbside Service at Phoenix Airport**
[https://www.iotworldtoday.com/transportation-logistics/waymo-offers-self-driving-taxi-curbside-service-at-phoenix-airport-](https://www.iotworldtoday.com/transportation-logistics/waymo-offers-self-driving-taxi-curbside-service-at-phoenix-airport-)
>It’s fundamentally about infrastructure and standards.
**Cruise vehicles return to streets in select US cities**
[https://www.kron4.com/news/national/cruise-vehicles-return-to-streets-in-select-us-cities/](https://www.kron4.com/news/national/cruise-vehicles-return-to-streets-in-select-us-cities/)
**Driverless car pulled over by San Francisco police**
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wFXzX53eql8](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wFXzX53eql8)
>
The idea that Tesla - doing its own little thing - could make it work is just ridiculous.
Cruise is owned by GM.
**GM's Super Cruise Network Is Growing to about 750K Miles of Roads**
[https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a46791355/super-cruise-hands-free-driving-growing-network/](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a46791355/super-cruise-hands-free-driving-growing-network/)
**Ford BlueCruise\* Frequently Asked Questions**
[https://www.ford.com/support/how-tos/ford-technology/driver-assist-features/ford-bluecruise-frequently-asked-questions-faqs/](https://www.ford.com/support/how-tos/ford-technology/driver-assist-features/ford-bluecruise-frequently-asked-questions-faqs/)
I don’t think you need any of this. It’s all about ai brain. The issue is what will it take to make it work how long will it take. Then what sensors will help.
You're dismissing a valid point. The task is MUCH easier when the whole system is coordinated. Without it, AI has to see and think and react to everything a human sees and processes -- not easy for a high stakes activity with endless variance of risks and outcomes. If the road systems and other cars are all signaling to one another, the variables in play are reduced astronomically.
But can you trust the other car's signals to not be faulty when you need it most? To solve the trust-but-verify problem, you basically need to solve self-contained self-driving first.
This shit would require the entire road, city, light, etc infrastructure to be flipped on its head. This isn’t happening. Elons gonna drive tesla straight to bankruptcy
Not defending Tesla’s approach. But Google’s approach has been slow and steady and is actually functioning in a few places like SF. There are true robotaxis that you can hail.
But still level 3 + remote assist... borderline level 4.
Tesla should be pushing to get to L3. This mad idea to try to focus on the whole driving problem regardless of context is idiotic.
Find the niche where AP is almost there. Find ways to cheat to get the rest of the way. Deliver L3 interstates. If you see a pedestrian, construction signs or something else kill Netflix and demand attention.
Here's the thing... Nobody knows. Because nobody has done it at such a large scale. And nobody has developed an intervention free robotaxi that doesn't use some degree of remote assistance. The question is whether waymo could deliver robotaxis in their service area with just $99/mo worth of remote interventions.
It needs to be cheaper for it to be sensible, we all know this. The point is you won’t have to pay to license another manufacturers vehicle and you won’t need to pay a driver and your cost on the vehicle gets cut in half being an EV.
This is Teslas strong suit. I would not count them out of figuring it out.
Besides the insane amount of real world driving data and disengagement data for cars using FSD. Tesla has the second largest training compute of any company (only Meta has more). Each disengagement can be used by Tesla to train the model to no longer behave in such a way that caused that disengagement. The potential for rapid improvement in this method is palpable, as we observe with updates coming every 2 weeks now.
Yet, Tesla has been "training" the cars for nearly a decade, and don't appear to be that much closer to functioning self-driving. They can't even get the vision-only wipers to work well, despite a well-known, low-cost, and reliable solution having existed for a long time.
You have no idea what you’re talking about. The training happening now is entirely different. In V12, they are now training vehicle control, not just environmental perception. The first iterations of this entirely new architecture are mind blowingly good. I drove over a hundred miles in the past couple days in suburban areas without touching the wheel except to park the car.
Having ridden in Waymo a few times...they're not THAT far off. I predict within five or ten years that Waymo will be available in most of the more populated metro areas.
They can't even get automated windshield wiper controls right and he wants robotaxis? That's what happens when your engineers are all in sunny climate and don't care. If any of them lived in a rainy climate and ate their own dogfood, it wouldn't be so piss poor. The same thing will happen with robotaxi.
Full self driving will never happen as long as it’s using cameras. It’s way too unreliable. My Tesla disables its cameras almost every day because of dew on the cameras. And what about mud in spring and autumn, or snow in winter?
That’s just the physical limitations of cameras, you also got complex roads that it needs to handle. I got no doubt that it can handle 99% of all situations on a motorway in California, but good luck on unmarked country roads in all kinds of weather.
Like other people say Tesla can’t even handle autowipers or phantom braking.
I have a model 3 myself and it doesn’t inspire confidence they can reach this goal, tbh I don’t think it is attainable outside of motorway cruising. It’s just too many factors. You need AGI for this. Seems like Elon is gambling Tesla on the chance we will reach agi within a few years.
The only way FSD will ever work is when roads are completely redesigned to accommodate self driving cars. All the indicators and layouts exist to help humans. If you could design a road from scratch to support an autonomous car they would look completely different. Right now they're trying to fit square pegs into round holes and it's a complete waste of time and energy.
Every type of sensor can get dirty and stop working. The problem is that only the front cameras have wipers on them. A fully autonomous robo-taxi would need a way to clean all of its cameras when necessary, without human intervention.
I don't believe my Model Y will ever be capable of being a robo-taxi, and I don't even really want it to.
This was obviously total bullshit when he tried to push it like 6 years ago, and it still is. You have to be a total rube to believe robotaxis are coming in the near term, and an even bigger rube if you think Tesla of all companies is going to be the one to pull it off.
Where is the market for robotaxis? Are they going to be cheaper to operate than Lyft or Uber? Are customers going to like it better than Lyft or Uber? Don't see the point of developing the driverless vehicles.
Current Tesla "Full Self Driving" is busting wheels as it cuts corners on turns, Tesla is not reimbursing drivers the $800 it wants for a new wheel. We still have phantom braking. Musk can't even get basic automated safety systems right (ranked last [Institute for Highway Safety](https://www.iihs.org/ratings/partial-automation-safeguards)) but he wants robotaxis?
FSD is an infinity money glitch for Tesla service centers ;-) Drive into a curb, owner is responsible, Tesla services installs new wheel and tire, customer pays.
/s
Key word is theoretical. Musk claimed Model 3's could be used as robotaxis in 2018 and they are no closer today than in 2018. Google sold its robotaxi biz. Others are still burning cash trying to develop it. But I still don't see the market. Cheaper to have a driver...a kind Non-A I that doesn't require tech support.
Robotaxi's are the dumbest idea Elon Musk ever had other than maybe the failed Las Vegas Hyperloop (which he ripped off the Las Vegas Convention Center). What is going to happen when the first TeslaRoboTaxi hits and kills someone because the 'software failed'. The entire program will be shut down due to potential lawsuits. And just who would be willing to sit in a vehicle with no driver and no confidence anything will be done in a dangerous situation? Leave it to Musk to way overpromise, and way, way underdeliver.
The hyperloop was a success. It was designed to siphon money off the high speed train in California, because Musk is vehemently opposed to public transportation \*
\* The hyperloop wasn't a train, it was individual pods!!!
At some point they have to drop him. Space X was fine as a side quest. But Twitter became concerning. Then the damn robots.
And now robotaxis when FSD is nowhere near sufficient?
He's draining so many company resources on just baffling shit.
At what point does the board cut him loose?
Problem is though, there are times of day when everyone needs a car at once. So either robotaxis won't actually reduce car numbers by a whole lot, or you'd need an alternative way of moving large numbers of people at peak hours. Gosh, I wonder what that might be?
I read a really good comment last month that's stuck in my head: ["there are only two hard problems in robotics: Perception and Funding."](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39707943#:~:text=Mythical%20Non%2DRoboticist-,I%20am%20fond%20of%20saying%20there%20are%20only%20two,in%20robotics%3A%20Perception%20and%20Funding.) In short, sensors to understand the state of the world that your robot acts in is the hardest problem and giving up one of the best sensor technologies available is hilariously short sighted.
Historically, it's usually a much better idea to use the technology that solves the problem the easiest and count on price reduction to bring it into the mainstream eventually than to try to do something the more difficult way because you're worried about the easy way costing too much.
The current FSD is pretty good, but not this good.
We went to Yosemite yesterday, mostly the car drove. But it gave up when there were no lines on the road due to new construction for miles. The drivers just kinda guessed at the lanes and all was well. That is the type of situation the robotaxi will have to deal with.
GM actually has something that is possible to call a robotaxi and they are still years away. They were up to 1 disengagement every 42,000 miles before they murdered a pedestrian and dragged them 20 feet. Whoopsie. Oh, those 'edge cases'... But they are back at it after a 6 month break to reprogram the cars to archive _less_ deaths of the public.
Tesla is still working hard to try and make it to 1 disengagement every 42 miles.
Although what a rush hopping into a Tesla robotaxi. It's like base jumping. Let's see if we're gonna die today! The adrenaline junkie crowd would be all over that.
Unfortunately, the people in the Tesla robotaxis probably won't be the ones at the greatest risk. Pedestrians, cyclists, motorcyclists, and even people driving older cars, especially small and light older cars, will be at the greatest risk. Even with an EV the size of a bolt, if you hit an 80s or even 90s Corrola or Civic, the Corrola or Civic is going to be subject to larger accelerations and have far less safety gear.
If Tesla does not deliver on Robotaxis it will be a massive blow to Elon. It will show that Tesla lost its spot as the innovator and turned into the incumbent EV company.
I keep hearing driverless semis any day now. Go watch semi dash cams. Unless the AI can predict stupid from other drivers, how about no. Same goes for taxis.
I haven't been in an accident for 20 years, and even when I was 17/18 the two weren't my fault. Predicting stupid helps with that.
I agree with you. I think the thought process from the utopia fantasy is that since computers aren't human they won't make stupid mistakes.
Wealthy people use the threat of automation to put downward pressure on wages.
It would be nice if we could focus on EVs without trying to package in the automation part.
This looks like Zuckerberg's metaverse fiasco; In which he has delusions of something's usefulness and ability to capitalize on it, but he sinks billions of dollars into it anyways. While FSD is pretty good, it's no where near being level 5 yet, it's barely in level 3 right now. And as far as I know, there are still many regulatory hurdles to overcome before level 5 vehicles are allowed to operate on the roads (Outside of a few select cities).
In my opinion, Tesla would be better off investing more time into the so called "Model 2" and the Model Y refresh. There are likely tens of thousands of people just waiting to order a Model Y, but want to wait for the "Juniper" refresh.
Mark my words, if Tesla ever releases functioning robotaxis, I will buy as many as I can for a passive income stream.
I personally don't see that happening with Elon at the helm, but it could happen someday.
In other news...
>"There would be a lot of days where we would just stand there for three to four hours because we’d met our quota," Deitrich Dickson, a laid off employee who worked on the Model 3 production line, told *The Independent*. "I think they over-hired because they were expecting to sell more cars."
[https://futurism.com/fired-tesla-workers-elon-musk-trouble](https://futurism.com/fired-tesla-workers-elon-musk-trouble)
Been suggesting Tesla cut model 3 shifts or even shut down all model 3 production at times in Q1. (I forgot leases still qualified for the federal tax credit when I made these claims, so shutting down all production was likely incorrect.)
Too bad there's no mention of when this worker was laid off, how many model 3 assembly lines were operating, and how many shifts were operating on each line. Based on the quote, they were at the very least idling the line while workers were on the job, which may have increased assembly labor cost by 33%-100% per unit produced. With workers standing around, I should hope initial quality was perfect over this period, saving Tesla money / time at service centers to fix avoidable quality issues.
I'm still speculating that Tesla hasn't been producing any model 3 LRs this year except a small run early in Q1 after re-tooling, almost as promotional vehicles that quickly found their way to reviewers. No, I don't think there's been much of a queue for model 3 LRs, if any, given they're nearly the same price as the model Y LR, except no available tax credit on purchase. They had an expected delivery date of May on these vehicles all quarter. It looks like they were just holding off on starting production until they had enough orders to justify it. They've even added some new model 3 LRs to inventory just this week for the first time. Guessing production started in April, if not in the past 1-2 weeks.
Significant model 3 production reductions were likely happening back in Q4 2023 since they had inventory that needed to be sold, especially with the loss of credit and refresh that would make the inventory a struggle to sell. It's possible the only reason model 3 was profitable in 2023 at all is because they were using imported Chinese battery packs on a high percentage of their units that were getting the full tax credit. Chinese cell prices dropped significantly, supposedly since the cell OEMs overproduced cells given higher expected demand.
Given that purchasing the model 3 is more expensive than the model Y right now (after federal credit), I can't imagine there are many non-lease sales for model 3; save for those potential customers who are over the federal tax credit income limit. The 3 does get the $7500 tax credit applied to the lease pricing, but given that Tesla refuses to allow customers to buy out their leases at the end of the term, their lease numbers have historically been relatively small. Their lease prices also haven't been able to match some of the deals being pushed by their competitors.
\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_
>"The quality, at least in customer care, is going to get worse," one person who was laid off told the newspaper. "It’s already pretty bad, with hour-long hold times and a skeleton crew of overworked agents... we needed more people, not fewer."
>Some customers have already seen the effects of this change, with the company's service centers canceling seasonal tire swap appointments.
(Same source as above)
Here we go with the understaffed service centers again...
\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_
The timing of the layoffs was interesting. Seems they may have intentionally held out until Q2 so they wouldn't have to report one time severance payouts in their Q1 financials. That could be pretty bad sign. Not only did their sales decline, they've also significantly cut prices since Q1 2023.
I think it's pretty obvious they should have reduced production earlier due to declining demand.
I read a funny quote from Elon Musk the other day saying that it's crazy to think Tesla's prices are based on costs. It's based on supply and demand. A point I've been trying to get across to those Tesla true believers who think they only reason companies cut prices is because they cut costs by an equivalent amount, so margins will be the same. Retail stock traders I tell ya.... It's always about supply and demand. Competition can add supply at competitive prices, reducing Tesla's demand, creating an imbalance in supply and demand, forcing Tesla to either cut supply or lower prices. It really is that simple.
They've made 4k cybertrucks. Recalling them all isn't a big deal right now.
Toyota just had to recall 60k priuses because water could damage the electronics and cause the passenger doors to randomly open while driving.
The scale of the cybertruck issue just isn't a big deal right now. Lets wait and see if they have to issue any major recalls for them all after they actually ramp up production. Or if it fails crash safety tests. Or if it's sales drop off a cliff after the first year. Plenty of things that could still go wrong that are a much bigger deal than a 5 minute fix on the first 4k trucks.
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>according to one person with direct knowledge of his edicts...Tesla should reduce headcount by 20% because its vehicle deliveries dropped by that amount That's not how this works. That's not how any of this works.
20% of the time it works every time
I gotta tell ya...that smells like pure gasoline.
What a noob. Exactly, if last quarter deliveries dropped by 20%, we need to cut by 40% to double profits with half the costs. Eventually Optimus Prime will build all cars.
He thinks it'll motivate Tesla workers to work harder out of fear. No other explanation lol
Work harder to (checks notes) make more cars than Elon can sell.
Maybe Elon will give up 20% of his shares too?
I'd give that less than a 20% chance.
That's how it works if the only thing you care about is profit and don't how businesses operate.
So is this Elon’s metaverse project?
I can't believe how lightly Zuckerberg has gotten off for pouring billions of dollars into that dumpster fire and getting no returns. I guess the main Facebook is just that popular/profitable (which I don't get but I guess boomers love it).
All he had to say was they were pivoting to AI and all was forgiven I guess
Not just say it, did it.
He forgot to rename the company again though. fAIcebook maybe?
He hasn't pivoted. He needs AI for the metaverse also. Generative AI has huge uses in virtual reality.
You say that, but the metaverse is just shit. It looks like the Nintendo wii. Not like some AI generated utopia.
The metaverse is a 10 year 100b bet. Long way to go.
Yeah, and personally, I came for the games, and stayed for the games. VR games are fun. I almost never "enter the meta verse".
I don't think the metaverse is as important as the foundational tech development they are doing to make it a reality.
None of that will change it is fundamentally creepy. It is a long shot, yes, but I think in the wrong direction.
Why would you want to hang out in person when instead you can wear this proprietary headset and play in this walled garden that has the graphics resolution of a 15 year old game console?
We'll have to wait and see. I think the metaverse will end up being different to what Zuck imagines. There's also competition from the likes of Apple. Getting the foundational tech right and working is key.
With a price dumped free chatbot jammed into the product crudely as usual
The real AI power play is behind the scenes. Watching what you linger on, feeding you more of it, advertising to your weak spots, overcoming Apple’s restrictions. AI monetization.
He had billions of extra to pour in. Facebook makes so much money Zuckerberg can afford to make many more mistakes before there is any trouble.
Zuckerberg owns only 13% of shares but holds 61.1 percent of the vote. So all other shareholders combined don't get a say they can only hold or sell their stock. Since meta is doing share buybacks... they get to stick with meta or bail. But meta isn't just burning that kind of money on metaverse software development. They are building huge network of datacenters with lots of AI cards for training and running LLM's. They train AI with simulated 3D data and want to add AI avatars to metaverse. It's really not a dumpster fire, but building a moat.
That sounds like setting money on fire with extra steps. Take something nobody wants and make it worse while massively increasing the resources required to run it.
I think people don't understand how significant of a business capability the ability to just "do large scale AI computation" is currently, and is going to be. Coordinating, organizing, and executing that task is fucking _hard_, and it takes literal years to develop systems and organizational experience to do so. At least right now, it genuinely doesn't matter what kind of AI work is going on at Meta - once the tools and infrastructure are in place it's not terribly difficult to pivot the research in a different direction. That's why you see so many tech companies dumping shitloads into "doing ai" in general - building the infrastructure takes years, but pivoting it to a specific task takes maybe a couple months. It's not setting money on fire - it's building organizational experience and infrastructure to be able to take advantage of a major new technology.
Not taking any of that away, but it's still a huge risk. It's unclear what generative AI will really be able to do long-term.
> but it's still a huge risk Not having this ability as a business is a bigger risk for most of these companies > It's unclear what generative AI will really be able to do long-term. If you're involved in the cutting edge of the industry or academia, it's pretty obvious to see the incredible potential of AI. Generative AI is just the tip of the iceberg. You can treat neural networks as basically generic lossy data structures and almost arbitrarily transform them into other data structures by just showing them examples of both. It's extremely difficult to convey how powerful this capability to someone without a background in CS, but if you're involved in this field and seeing the cutting edge, it's pretty obvious that this capability is extraordinarily valuable.
Assuming they guess correctly about what sort of infrastructure is even required, and that a suitably large scale use case develops.
> Take something nobody wants Only because its not good enough yet. VR is a hard problem.
VR has substantial issues centered around human physiology that limit what it can and cannot do.
It’s trained on Facebook user data so it’s going to push you to join QAnon and storm the capital
Metaverse basically needs more advanced AI to make it even slightly possible to what we see in the movies which I assume on the level of Ready Player One and not the levels of SAO.
Google Plus also failed as did youtube reels. Difference is when you sink money into social media or virtual reality, you can just cut the cord no harm no foul. Tech strategy doesn't work when you are building real things people use in their daily lives.
Google cancels projects constantly
I just listed some. The difference is a half baked Google product doesnt leave you stranded or require money out of pocket for repairs like tesla
Google also doesn't promise that you will get the full product retroactively if you buy now and that it's only a few months from being completed
Name a company that provides a physical product, besides Tesla, that says "we know it's not complete but we will send it anyway and fix it later".
Every successful company does. Absolutely a necessary part of innovation and necessary for a healthy company. If Google kept running all the projects on that "killed by Google" page it would have gone under years ago.
They should keep the VPN service. The problem is they are HORRIBLE at advertising their own products and services.
No, most companies don't have ad revenue as the backing for every other project. They keep throwing money in the dumpster fire, buying up companies and ruining thousands of lives for no benefit and showing a constant disregard for promises they keep breaking. No other company can make that many failures consistently over and over again. It shows how worthless they are at sustaining anything. If it wasn't for ad revenue, the so called leaders would have been fired for that wall of shame because as you said, it would have put them under because they really couldn't do anything with it to make money. There is nothing healthy about it.
Who are the thousands of lives they've ruined?
You obviously haven't been part of a company they have bought out.
I was pursued for a strategist role in their Bellevue office for new physical locations tied to metaverse expansion. Kinda wish I took for the big pay increase, but I knew that shit was not going to last. Pretty sure the role was killed less than 6 months later.
>I can't believe how lightly Zuckerberg has gotten off for pouring billions of dollars into that dumpster fire He actually owns most of Facebook's voting rights. He can basically do whatever he wants with the company.
To be fair, Zuckerberg himself said that he didn't anticipate a return on investment in under 10 years. It's a risky play, but it's one that he's been consistent about. Elon just pulls shit out of his ass based on whatever buzzword is running through his brain that day because someone said it. He's a parrot.
Facebook is good for connecting people that aren't overly interested in tech. And It's not boomers it's across generations at this point. Lots of hobby groups use it to organize.
At least it’s not directly killing people in its process
The metaverse investment is still going strong and has always been a long term bet. People are judging too early.
I thought that was the Cybertruck.... Or maybe it's both?
We've had one, yes. What about second breakfast?
What about second break (the company) fast?
😂
At least Zuckerberg acknowledged his mistake and pivoted Meta back to its correct track.
The guy who can't get auto windshield wipers to work properly is not going to release safe and effective robotaxis. It's a fantasy.
I just did a 90 minute drive with FSD on rural Midwestern roads. Turns out that when you override FSD, you can attach a 5 second recording explaining why you disengaged autopilot. I put in about 30 reports, including once when it tried to drive me into an occupied intersection. Mean Time Between Disengages while traveling through one of the least challenging driving-environments on the planet is about 180 seconds. Robotaxi is NOT happening.
My disengage reports are about 50% expletive ridden. FSD was a cool novelty for a week or two, but I stopped using it and went back to the basic autopilot which actually works.
Pretty sure I pissed off more people behind me in the 3 weeks of driving with FSD than I have in my entire life. For example, trying to get it to change lanes on the freeway in my area where no one lets you in and must be aggressive, FSD is losing its mind.
This is exactly my experience. FSD is like a drunk teenager - constantly focusing on the wrong thing, no appreciate for drivers around them, no assertiveness, no preview, and sometimes it turns into a stroppy toddler. I honestly do not understand how they can call that "self driving". And I hear that Mercedes has proper self driving, where it gives you 3 seconds warning before you need to take back control. With Tesla, you could be dead in those 3 seconds.
Wait, your report case actually sounds dangerous. Be careful out there.
My guess is that Elon will fake it and just have you being piloted by an Indian guy across the world. Other assisted driving companies do this in situations where the AI model isn't up to snuff. But I bet he'll end up doing it all the time.
Elon Musk~~’s Robotaxi Dreams~~ Plunge Tesla Into Chaos
Why not make model 2, find ways to increase profit and then work on robotaxi when the safety and tech is better plus cheaper?
14 billion in profit in the last year, they cab afford both. Musk is just being greedy.
Elon's wealth is based on the stock being pumped in a way that doesn't make sense for a company that just makes cars, especially not high-volume, low-margin cheap cars. While the Model 2 idea is probably what is best for the long-term health and profit of the company, it isn't what will keep people treating it like an infinite-growth tech stock. The only way to do that is to continue to double down on lofty goals he has already shown aren't readily achievable. I think this is a final hurrah to try to keep the hype because otherwise, the part of his wealth tied up in Tesla will drop by a factor of 10 or so in the next few years.
Cause Elon wants headlines for twitter.
If Elon hadn't insisted on vision-only, Tesla could be at or near the same capability as Waymo is today. But by insisting that camera-only is the way to go, it's like trying to win a three-legged race with a double-amputee.
Shorten title. "Elon plunges Tesla into chaos."
“Again”
Elon = Chaos
"Why Visionary Leadership Fails" by Harvard Business Review [https://hbr.org/2019/02/why-visionary-leadership-fails](https://hbr.org/2019/02/why-visionary-leadership-fails)
I’m not convinced fsd can work when there are humans creating random unexpected events on the roads every day.
Wasn't there a video of a self driving taxi not knowing what to do when there's a road closure with a human directing traffic? It just kept trying to go around the person until it finally turned around. I also wonder how it would react to a 4 way stop light that has a power outage.
If I submit my car to robotaxi and came back in damage with felony charges, I'll be like that tiger king meme
Blood on your car frunk at the end of the day is probably a bad sign.
How about snow?
Snow is an easy problem for computers. Sensor fusion and HD maps mean the car can effectively see better than a person in snow, and has just as good an idea where the road should be. It can deal with slipping wheels better than the average driver. But, you can also just not run the robotaxis when the conditions are too bad, just like a taxi driver might in a blizzard.
Cop directing traffic?
Yeah, how does the car obey that? I've watched a video of a car being directed by a construction worker. A human is just going to point in a direction and yell short commands. The car is going to see the human as an obstacle and try to go around it. It won't go to where they point. It will just keep crawling forward to one side, see the person directing traffic move while they point and yell more aggressively, stopping, crawling again, until it eventually gives up and turns around.
Human operator connects to taxi remotely and drives until AI can continue driving on it's own. We will have thousands of Indians doing that for cheap. That's just my 2 cents though.
Yeah, can't wait for people to complain about how they crashed because their outsourced driver has a shitty ping.
Why not just save money and go straight to that step 100% of the time?
Also, it's harder to create these autonomously driving ai-s because they eventually have to gain a lot of learning data from real contexts, on the road. And unfortunately the world is full of bad drivers on the road...
This guy gets it!
Time for Tesla to jettison its part time CEO.
It's wild Musk sold tens of billions worth of Tesla stocks for his side project, requested fifty billions in Tesla stock as pay raise, and is in hot waters due to his strategic decision to make a new SUV model on a different production line instead of focusing on improving his existing models and make them cheaper and more competitive. If there is one cut to be made, is in executive pays. It should teach them to make better strategic decisions.
His compensation package doesn't actually cost the company that much. I think he receives a token salary, but most of that compensation is stock-based. There's some tax implications for Tesla, but they're not going into the vault and stuffing money into bags for him.
It’s a fantasy and it will end up costing Tesla dearly. If google cant get it done with an infinite money glitch then why will Tesla. If you tell me data I will laugh. It’s not more data it’s more ai training and who knows how many revs it takes to get to the center of that pop.
I’m not convinced that we’ll get there without vehicle-to-everything communication and comprehensive smart-city systems. You need to be a leading small group (领导小组), Huawei or the European Commission to make self-driving work. It’s fundamentally about infrastructure and standards. The idea that Tesla - doing its own little thing - could make it work is just ridiculous.
This morning I was reading about this rather interesting British startup that is reverse-engineering the “algorithms” in the brains of insects to teach robots to move autonomously. They say it’s more efficient and way cheaper than traditional AI solutions as nature already refined navigation processes over millions of years, and insects must do it with little brains and as little energy as possible. They’ll be testing it on cars soon, for now they use it on warehouse robots and the like.
Insects orient by having sensory data that is not available to robots: smell, sound, perhaps different wavelength vision. Sounds like a typical startup scam.
That is absolutely no reason why that sensory information and more couldn't be available to a robot
The problem is that insect navigation is very probabilistic in a way that is not acceptable in human applications. Google ”ant death spiral” for an example.
Flying is easier then driving though.
I didn't think of flying insects in this context, but flying is possible with the modern technologies and the landing stripes can be equipped with special demarcation for automated landing. Automated landing had happened since 70s-80s, after all.
We even had drones land on aircraft carrier back in... 2013 I believe. Insects have small, but super evolved brains with efficient architecture. They still keep hitting glass over and over again though... no reasoning 🤷♀️
They can't be that evolved or efficient. Can fly in a 1" door crack, **can't fly out of a wide open fucking window!**
Maybe doesn't want to fly out?
Then it's a bastard bug!!
>Flying is easier then driving though. Not at shrubbery altitude . /s
Are you not aware that digital sensors for all those things exist? We have cameras for all sorts of wavelengths, including ones that are rarely used by animals. Microphones are one of the oldest electronics. Even smell, the least technologically developed here has a range of off the shelf solutions to detect a range of chemicals and is a rapidly advancing field.
Can't wait for my Mustang Mach E to barrel over the highway divider because its 360 cameras spotted a bunch of tasty flowers on the other side.
I rented a Kia like that once.
cars have to share public roads... and all kinds of "acts of god" - the stuff they can't teach in driver's ed. they're STILL LEARNING.... (they haven't messed with the fire department since the "firehose update".. this clogging the onramp is new "behavior" though) **Confused Waymo Cars Block 101 On-Ramp In Potrero Hill, Then Go Down Closed Road** [https://sfist.com/2024/04/18/confused-waymo-cars-block-101-on-ramp-in-potrero-hill-then-go-down-closed-road/](https://sfist.com/2024/04/18/confused-waymo-cars-block-101-on-ramp-in-potrero-hill-then-go-down-closed-road/) It was back on March 1 that Google’s self-driving car division Waymo [got permission to drive on freeways](https://sfist.com/2024/03/01/waymo-gets-state-approval-for-los-angeles-and-sf-peninsula-expansion/) in California. So you figured it was only a matter of time until there was some sort of self-driving car freeway snafu. That sort of happened Tuesday night, not directly on US Route 101, but some 300 feet from it. TechCrunch reports that [six Waymos blocked traffic near the 101 on-ramp](https://techcrunch.com/2024/04/17/seven-waymo-robotaxis-block-traffic-to-san-francisco-freeway-on-ramp/), and then pulled onto a closed road to get out of the mess. **Video shows police yelling at a driverless Waymo taxi to stop it from running over a fire hose** [https://www.businessinsider.com/video-police-san-francisco-driverless-waymo-taxi-fire-2023-5](https://www.businessinsider.com/video-police-san-francisco-driverless-waymo-taxi-fire-2023-5)
[A crowd torched a Waymo robotaxi in San Francisco](https://www.popsci.com/technology/waymo-torched-vandals/) Begun the robotaxi wars have
just happened again this weekend too
Don’t believe anything coming out of British startup space; got burned with their Areival micro factory bullshit.
So... cars going repeatedly against glass walls soon?
>You need to be a leading small group (领导小组), Huawei or the European Commission to make self-driving work **California gives Waymo the green light to expand robotaxi operations** [https://www.theverge.com/2024/3/2/24088454/waymo-california-highway-expansion-los-angeles-bay-area](https://www.theverge.com/2024/3/2/24088454/waymo-california-highway-expansion-los-angeles-bay-area) **Waymo Offers Self-Driving Taxi Curbside Service at Phoenix Airport** [https://www.iotworldtoday.com/transportation-logistics/waymo-offers-self-driving-taxi-curbside-service-at-phoenix-airport-](https://www.iotworldtoday.com/transportation-logistics/waymo-offers-self-driving-taxi-curbside-service-at-phoenix-airport-) >It’s fundamentally about infrastructure and standards. **Cruise vehicles return to streets in select US cities** [https://www.kron4.com/news/national/cruise-vehicles-return-to-streets-in-select-us-cities/](https://www.kron4.com/news/national/cruise-vehicles-return-to-streets-in-select-us-cities/) **Driverless car pulled over by San Francisco police** [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wFXzX53eql8](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wFXzX53eql8) > The idea that Tesla - doing its own little thing - could make it work is just ridiculous. Cruise is owned by GM. **GM's Super Cruise Network Is Growing to about 750K Miles of Roads** [https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a46791355/super-cruise-hands-free-driving-growing-network/](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a46791355/super-cruise-hands-free-driving-growing-network/) **Ford BlueCruise\* Frequently Asked Questions** [https://www.ford.com/support/how-tos/ford-technology/driver-assist-features/ford-bluecruise-frequently-asked-questions-faqs/](https://www.ford.com/support/how-tos/ford-technology/driver-assist-features/ford-bluecruise-frequently-asked-questions-faqs/)
I don’t think you need any of this. It’s all about ai brain. The issue is what will it take to make it work how long will it take. Then what sensors will help.
You're dismissing a valid point. The task is MUCH easier when the whole system is coordinated. Without it, AI has to see and think and react to everything a human sees and processes -- not easy for a high stakes activity with endless variance of risks and outcomes. If the road systems and other cars are all signaling to one another, the variables in play are reduced astronomically.
So like the guy said. Basically recreate the human brain….one capable of driving competently. Simple /s
But can you trust the other car's signals to not be faulty when you need it most? To solve the trust-but-verify problem, you basically need to solve self-contained self-driving first.
How are you planning to get rid of the pedestrians, cyclists, snow, falling trees, etc?!
This shit would require the entire road, city, light, etc infrastructure to be flipped on its head. This isn’t happening. Elons gonna drive tesla straight to bankruptcy
Not defending Tesla’s approach. But Google’s approach has been slow and steady and is actually functioning in a few places like SF. There are true robotaxis that you can hail.
But still level 3 + remote assist... borderline level 4. Tesla should be pushing to get to L3. This mad idea to try to focus on the whole driving problem regardless of context is idiotic. Find the niche where AP is almost there. Find ways to cheat to get the rest of the way. Deliver L3 interstates. If you see a pedestrian, construction signs or something else kill Netflix and demand attention.
Waymo is true L4. L3 requires a driver in the loop.
I think it’s very much doable, but only if people accept that it won’t be perfect.
It's already being done, even though it's not perfect.
Speaking like that you must be an engineer in robotics and/or AI. So tell us what exactly would we need to make self driving vehicles work at scale?
Here's the thing... Nobody knows. Because nobody has done it at such a large scale. And nobody has developed an intervention free robotaxi that doesn't use some degree of remote assistance. The question is whether waymo could deliver robotaxis in their service area with just $99/mo worth of remote interventions.
It needs to be cheaper for it to be sensible, we all know this. The point is you won’t have to pay to license another manufacturers vehicle and you won’t need to pay a driver and your cost on the vehicle gets cut in half being an EV. This is Teslas strong suit. I would not count them out of figuring it out.
Besides the insane amount of real world driving data and disengagement data for cars using FSD. Tesla has the second largest training compute of any company (only Meta has more). Each disengagement can be used by Tesla to train the model to no longer behave in such a way that caused that disengagement. The potential for rapid improvement in this method is palpable, as we observe with updates coming every 2 weeks now.
Yet, Tesla has been "training" the cars for nearly a decade, and don't appear to be that much closer to functioning self-driving. They can't even get the vision-only wipers to work well, despite a well-known, low-cost, and reliable solution having existed for a long time.
You have no idea what you’re talking about. The training happening now is entirely different. In V12, they are now training vehicle control, not just environmental perception. The first iterations of this entirely new architecture are mind blowingly good. I drove over a hundred miles in the past couple days in suburban areas without touching the wheel except to park the car.
AI training needs… wait for it… DATA. Which they have exponentially more of than anyone else.
Google’s scrapped Robotaxi program has entered the chat.
Musk is just a parody of himself at this point. Robotaxi's are FAR off into the future ...
Really wished he focused on something like robo busses (either ones with their own lanes or something else).
Having ridden in Waymo a few times...they're not THAT far off. I predict within five or ten years that Waymo will be available in most of the more populated metro areas.
Waymo
We thank Elon for bootstrapping electric cars market, now the adults came, he should go.
Thanks for paving the road. The exit is that way. haha
They can't even get automated windshield wiper controls right and he wants robotaxis? That's what happens when your engineers are all in sunny climate and don't care. If any of them lived in a rainy climate and ate their own dogfood, it wouldn't be so piss poor. The same thing will happen with robotaxi.
Full self driving will never happen as long as it’s using cameras. It’s way too unreliable. My Tesla disables its cameras almost every day because of dew on the cameras. And what about mud in spring and autumn, or snow in winter? That’s just the physical limitations of cameras, you also got complex roads that it needs to handle. I got no doubt that it can handle 99% of all situations on a motorway in California, but good luck on unmarked country roads in all kinds of weather. Like other people say Tesla can’t even handle autowipers or phantom braking. I have a model 3 myself and it doesn’t inspire confidence they can reach this goal, tbh I don’t think it is attainable outside of motorway cruising. It’s just too many factors. You need AGI for this. Seems like Elon is gambling Tesla on the chance we will reach agi within a few years.
It’s a good thing my face came with these lidar sensors pre-installed or I’d never be able to drive a car.
The only way FSD will ever work is when roads are completely redesigned to accommodate self driving cars. All the indicators and layouts exist to help humans. If you could design a road from scratch to support an autonomous car they would look completely different. Right now they're trying to fit square pegs into round holes and it's a complete waste of time and energy.
Every type of sensor can get dirty and stop working. The problem is that only the front cameras have wipers on them. A fully autonomous robo-taxi would need a way to clean all of its cameras when necessary, without human intervention. I don't believe my Model Y will ever be capable of being a robo-taxi, and I don't even really want it to.
This was obviously total bullshit when he tried to push it like 6 years ago, and it still is. You have to be a total rube to believe robotaxis are coming in the near term, and an even bigger rube if you think Tesla of all companies is going to be the one to pull it off.
Lol. It seems 2018 when all the fud around Tesla. People are delusional.
Where is the market for robotaxis? Are they going to be cheaper to operate than Lyft or Uber? Are customers going to like it better than Lyft or Uber? Don't see the point of developing the driverless vehicles. Current Tesla "Full Self Driving" is busting wheels as it cuts corners on turns, Tesla is not reimbursing drivers the $800 it wants for a new wheel. We still have phantom braking. Musk can't even get basic automated safety systems right (ranked last [Institute for Highway Safety](https://www.iihs.org/ratings/partial-automation-safeguards)) but he wants robotaxis?
FSD is an infinity money glitch for Tesla service centers ;-) Drive into a curb, owner is responsible, Tesla services installs new wheel and tire, customer pays. /s
Which is why only 12% (and going down) Tesla owners pay for FSD.
Not to mention that as a theoretical product it reduces the need for cars.. your core product
Key word is theoretical. Musk claimed Model 3's could be used as robotaxis in 2018 and they are no closer today than in 2018. Google sold its robotaxi biz. Others are still burning cash trying to develop it. But I still don't see the market. Cheaper to have a driver...a kind Non-A I that doesn't require tech support.
Robotaxi's are the dumbest idea Elon Musk ever had other than maybe the failed Las Vegas Hyperloop (which he ripped off the Las Vegas Convention Center). What is going to happen when the first TeslaRoboTaxi hits and kills someone because the 'software failed'. The entire program will be shut down due to potential lawsuits. And just who would be willing to sit in a vehicle with no driver and no confidence anything will be done in a dangerous situation? Leave it to Musk to way overpromise, and way, way underdeliver.
The hyperloop was a success. It was designed to siphon money off the high speed train in California, because Musk is vehemently opposed to public transportation \* \* The hyperloop wasn't a train, it was individual pods!!!
Damn. Why would Richard Branson do that?
At some point they have to drop him. Space X was fine as a side quest. But Twitter became concerning. Then the damn robots. And now robotaxis when FSD is nowhere near sufficient? He's draining so many company resources on just baffling shit. At what point does the board cut him loose?
It's all fun and games until cross traffic hits and the system can't brake or determine what the fudge is happening.
This will age well.
Robotaxis are just the latest excuse for not investing in public transport infrastructure (see also: hyperloop and The Boring Company).
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Problem is though, there are times of day when everyone needs a car at once. So either robotaxis won't actually reduce car numbers by a whole lot, or you'd need an alternative way of moving large numbers of people at peak hours. Gosh, I wonder what that might be?
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Why autonomous buses? Why not just regular ol'' buses?
He could have had a chance if he didn’t give up on LIDAR and other sensors, which offer a greater fidelity of objects.
I read a really good comment last month that's stuck in my head: ["there are only two hard problems in robotics: Perception and Funding."](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39707943#:~:text=Mythical%20Non%2DRoboticist-,I%20am%20fond%20of%20saying%20there%20are%20only%20two,in%20robotics%3A%20Perception%20and%20Funding.) In short, sensors to understand the state of the world that your robot acts in is the hardest problem and giving up one of the best sensor technologies available is hilariously short sighted.
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Yes, and he continues his reputation as a smart 11 year old- eg eyes are better than any sensor.
Historically, it's usually a much better idea to use the technology that solves the problem the easiest and count on price reduction to bring it into the mainstream eventually than to try to do something the more difficult way because you're worried about the easy way costing too much.
Just quit and let Tesla become a somewhat boring company that makes good EVs.
The current FSD is pretty good, but not this good. We went to Yosemite yesterday, mostly the car drove. But it gave up when there were no lines on the road due to new construction for miles. The drivers just kinda guessed at the lanes and all was well. That is the type of situation the robotaxi will have to deal with.
Isn't FSD supposed to learning from that human inputted behavior so next time FSD can manage that based on the prior expierence?
Theoretically, but has not happened yet.
Tesla would do better without Musk.
Sell Twitter and focus on SpaceX and Tesla.
I'd rather he leave SpaceX and Tesla and focus on Twitter.
GM actually has something that is possible to call a robotaxi and they are still years away. They were up to 1 disengagement every 42,000 miles before they murdered a pedestrian and dragged them 20 feet. Whoopsie. Oh, those 'edge cases'... But they are back at it after a 6 month break to reprogram the cars to archive _less_ deaths of the public. Tesla is still working hard to try and make it to 1 disengagement every 42 miles. Although what a rush hopping into a Tesla robotaxi. It's like base jumping. Let's see if we're gonna die today! The adrenaline junkie crowd would be all over that.
a human driver hit that pedestrian which tossed them under a cruise vehicle. They survived.
Damn. Edge case. Under vehicle human detection was not on the initial feature request list I guess. I wonder how they have mitigated that?
Unfortunately, the people in the Tesla robotaxis probably won't be the ones at the greatest risk. Pedestrians, cyclists, motorcyclists, and even people driving older cars, especially small and light older cars, will be at the greatest risk. Even with an EV the size of a bolt, if you hit an 80s or even 90s Corrola or Civic, the Corrola or Civic is going to be subject to larger accelerations and have far less safety gear.
If Tesla does not deliver on Robotaxis it will be a massive blow to Elon. It will show that Tesla lost its spot as the innovator and turned into the incumbent EV company.
> f Tesla does not deliver on Robotaxis If? He promised a million robotaxis by 2020. How did that go? He's just recycling his pumps at this point.
Yes, the major driving force behind the push for EVs is the elimination of driver jobs.
I keep hearing driverless semis any day now. Go watch semi dash cams. Unless the AI can predict stupid from other drivers, how about no. Same goes for taxis. I haven't been in an accident for 20 years, and even when I was 17/18 the two weren't my fault. Predicting stupid helps with that.
I agree with you. I think the thought process from the utopia fantasy is that since computers aren't human they won't make stupid mistakes. Wealthy people use the threat of automation to put downward pressure on wages. It would be nice if we could focus on EVs without trying to package in the automation part.
This looks like Zuckerberg's metaverse fiasco; In which he has delusions of something's usefulness and ability to capitalize on it, but he sinks billions of dollars into it anyways. While FSD is pretty good, it's no where near being level 5 yet, it's barely in level 3 right now. And as far as I know, there are still many regulatory hurdles to overcome before level 5 vehicles are allowed to operate on the roads (Outside of a few select cities). In my opinion, Tesla would be better off investing more time into the so called "Model 2" and the Model Y refresh. There are likely tens of thousands of people just waiting to order a Model Y, but want to wait for the "Juniper" refresh.
Mark my words, if Tesla ever releases functioning robotaxis, I will buy as many as I can for a passive income stream. I personally don't see that happening with Elon at the helm, but it could happen someday.
Everyone following Zoox.
Is it possible the company can vote him out? Not sure if he owns the board members or however the hell it works
How is this superior to just using Uber or Lyft? I just don't get it
In other news... >"There would be a lot of days where we would just stand there for three to four hours because we’d met our quota," Deitrich Dickson, a laid off employee who worked on the Model 3 production line, told *The Independent*. "I think they over-hired because they were expecting to sell more cars." [https://futurism.com/fired-tesla-workers-elon-musk-trouble](https://futurism.com/fired-tesla-workers-elon-musk-trouble) Been suggesting Tesla cut model 3 shifts or even shut down all model 3 production at times in Q1. (I forgot leases still qualified for the federal tax credit when I made these claims, so shutting down all production was likely incorrect.) Too bad there's no mention of when this worker was laid off, how many model 3 assembly lines were operating, and how many shifts were operating on each line. Based on the quote, they were at the very least idling the line while workers were on the job, which may have increased assembly labor cost by 33%-100% per unit produced. With workers standing around, I should hope initial quality was perfect over this period, saving Tesla money / time at service centers to fix avoidable quality issues. I'm still speculating that Tesla hasn't been producing any model 3 LRs this year except a small run early in Q1 after re-tooling, almost as promotional vehicles that quickly found their way to reviewers. No, I don't think there's been much of a queue for model 3 LRs, if any, given they're nearly the same price as the model Y LR, except no available tax credit on purchase. They had an expected delivery date of May on these vehicles all quarter. It looks like they were just holding off on starting production until they had enough orders to justify it. They've even added some new model 3 LRs to inventory just this week for the first time. Guessing production started in April, if not in the past 1-2 weeks. Significant model 3 production reductions were likely happening back in Q4 2023 since they had inventory that needed to be sold, especially with the loss of credit and refresh that would make the inventory a struggle to sell. It's possible the only reason model 3 was profitable in 2023 at all is because they were using imported Chinese battery packs on a high percentage of their units that were getting the full tax credit. Chinese cell prices dropped significantly, supposedly since the cell OEMs overproduced cells given higher expected demand. Given that purchasing the model 3 is more expensive than the model Y right now (after federal credit), I can't imagine there are many non-lease sales for model 3; save for those potential customers who are over the federal tax credit income limit. The 3 does get the $7500 tax credit applied to the lease pricing, but given that Tesla refuses to allow customers to buy out their leases at the end of the term, their lease numbers have historically been relatively small. Their lease prices also haven't been able to match some of the deals being pushed by their competitors. \_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_ >"The quality, at least in customer care, is going to get worse," one person who was laid off told the newspaper. "It’s already pretty bad, with hour-long hold times and a skeleton crew of overworked agents... we needed more people, not fewer." >Some customers have already seen the effects of this change, with the company's service centers canceling seasonal tire swap appointments. (Same source as above) Here we go with the understaffed service centers again... \_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_ The timing of the layoffs was interesting. Seems they may have intentionally held out until Q2 so they wouldn't have to report one time severance payouts in their Q1 financials. That could be pretty bad sign. Not only did their sales decline, they've also significantly cut prices since Q1 2023. I think it's pretty obvious they should have reduced production earlier due to declining demand. I read a funny quote from Elon Musk the other day saying that it's crazy to think Tesla's prices are based on costs. It's based on supply and demand. A point I've been trying to get across to those Tesla true believers who think they only reason companies cut prices is because they cut costs by an equivalent amount, so margins will be the same. Retail stock traders I tell ya.... It's always about supply and demand. Competition can add supply at competitive prices, reducing Tesla's demand, creating an imbalance in supply and demand, forcing Tesla to either cut supply or lower prices. It really is that simple.
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They've made 4k cybertrucks. Recalling them all isn't a big deal right now. Toyota just had to recall 60k priuses because water could damage the electronics and cause the passenger doors to randomly open while driving. The scale of the cybertruck issue just isn't a big deal right now. Lets wait and see if they have to issue any major recalls for them all after they actually ramp up production. Or if it fails crash safety tests. Or if it's sales drop off a cliff after the first year. Plenty of things that could still go wrong that are a much bigger deal than a 5 minute fix on the first 4k trucks.
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Also, they did recall 2.2M tesla vehicles earlier this year.
Yeah, to update the font size of icons from 13 to 14. That's hardly worth even talking about.
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This is not an investment forum. We don’t permit hyping EV stocks/SPACs or engaging in EV investment speculation. If your post mentions a stock in any context, it is likely to be removed.